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Forex Forum Archive for 01/30/2010

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Syd 23:06 GMT January 30, 2010
Obama Says Deficit Could Jeopardize Recovery
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama renewed his pledge on Saturday to make job creation his top priority in 2010 but said it was also critical to rein in a record budget deficit that threatened an economic recovery.

tokyo rana 18:23 GMT January 30, 2010
Home ::Technical ::Forex Forecasts ::British Pound GBP Forecast 2010 Targets Drop to Below £/$1.40
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British Pound GBP Forecast 2010 Targets Drop to Below £/$1.40
Tue, Dec 29 2009, 10:07 GMT
by Nadeem Walayat

The existing U.S. Dollar bull market scenario analysis calls for the Dollar to rally towards a target of 84, with the initial buy trigger of 77.00 achieved during the past few days this now sets the scene for sterling weakness against the Dollar, which has already seen the GBP nose dive from £/$1.68 to below £/$1.60. A U.S. Dollar index rally to 84 would coincide with a drop in sterling to below £/$ 1.50, therefore presents a bearish starting point for chart analysis.

Two items stand out from the GBP chart:

1. That sterling is targeting immediate support at £/$1.57 which implies it may temporarily bounce from there back through £/$1.60 before the eventual break.

2. That a break below £/$1.57 would target a trend to below £/$1.40.

On a longer term view, the chart is indicative of trading range between £/$1.57 and £/$1.37, on anticipation of the eventual break of £/$1.57. On average this implies a 10% sterling deprecation against the trend of the preceding 6 months or so. I expect sterling to fall against other major currencies such as the Euro where it targets a drop of 10% or so from the current 1.12.

What could drive sterling lower during 2010 apart form Dollar strength?
The obvious thing that comes to mind is the Bank of England keeping UK base interest rates artificially low (UK interest rate forecast for 2010 will follow in the coming week- newsletter) whilst the economy recovers, inflation rises and the trade gap widens, therefore this WILL impact on the currency and result in relative weakness as commodities such as crude oil are priced in dollars and thus will result in an inflationary feed back loop. Neither is the currency helped by open ended money printing to monetize the huge amount of government debt issuance as a consequence of a 12%+ budget deficit.

UK Inflation Forecast 2009
Deflationary forces as a consequence of the the bursting of the asset bubbles has fulfilled the deflation forecast for 2009 as per the original analysis of December 2008 - UK CPI Inflation, RPI Deflation Forecast 2009 that forecast Deflation into Mid 2009 targeting RPI of -1.2% and CPI of +0.9% to be followed by an uptrend into year end back into RPI inflation of +0.9% and CPI of +1.6% as illustrated by the below graph.

tokyo rana 18:21 GMT January 30, 2010
Entry: Target: Stop:

Current price action in currencies may be sending some interesting signals. Broad dollar damage is being accompanied by broad yen strength, which is an unusual pattern when risk appetite is on the rise. This suggests that dollar weakness is not necessarily a reflection of improved risk appetite but of secular weakness in the greenback (as a result of Chinese gold purchases and most importantly hedge funds testing key dollar support levels vs. EUR (1.4620) GBP (1.67) and AUD (0.8640-50s).
If the explanation that the greenback has become the sole candidate for financing carry trades into equities may be plausible, then this promises for emerging bounce at the next bout of equity selling. But with the higher lows displayed by the euro and high yielders (AUD, NZD) remaining a major part of the FX trading landscape, dollar bulls scan still find solace vs. GBP, CAD and CHF.

EURUSD hit a fresh 9-month high of $1.4627, coinciding with the key 61.8% retracement of the decline from the $1.6033 record high to the $1.2315 low. The euro's broadening strength is also bolstered by inclinations towards a global exit strategy, which would support EUR due to the ECB's relatively less generous quantitative easing. Most interestingly, the $1.4610-20 region was the top of the rally in mid December (when FOMC moved to 0.25%) and mid September (when Lehman collapse boosted gold and EUR).

tokyo rana 16:05 GMT January 30, 2010
Entry: Target: Stop:

what is future of JPY?

tokyo rana 16:04 GMT January 30, 2010
Entry: Target: Stop:

any body know about GBPJPY next target?

Hong Kong Qindex 14:29 GMT January 30, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

tokyo rana 14:25 GMT : In the subscribed webpages we will provide the series from the daily and weekly cycle ranges.

tokyo rana 14:25 GMT January 30, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

Dear Sir,
Thanx for reply...
This is so big range very risky....

Monthly Cycle Projected Series : ... 108.96 - 114.20* - 119.44 - 122.06 // 124.68* - 127.30 - 129.92 - 132.54 - 135.16* - 137.78 - [140.40] - 143.02 - 145.64* - 148.26 - 150.88 - 153.50 - 156.12* // 158.74 - 161.36 - 166.60* - 171.85 ...

Monthly Cycle Congested Area : 86.50 - 104.47 - 122.44 - (140.40 - 158.37) - 176.34 - 194.30

Monthly Cycle Reference Normal Lower Limits : 51.18 - [70.84] - [85.85]* - 98.44* - [100.96] - 102.89 - 106.87* - 111.12 - 113.64 - 127.97 - 133.73 - 134.93

Monthly Cycle Reference Normal Upper Limits : 148.85 - 149.55 - 150.10- 155.24 - 158.32 - 164.74* - 176.70* - 177.52 - 178.19 - [188.97]* - [189.30] - [189.63]

Hong Kong Qindex 14:25 GMT January 30, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Hang Seng Index
Entry: Target: Stop:

Hang Seng Index : Critical Support 19231

Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 19231. As shown in the monthly cycle charts the bias is on the downside when the market is below 20060. The initial weekly cycle downside targeting points are 18166 - 19183 - 19196.

HSI : Monthly Cycle Charts

GVI Forex Jay 14:13 GMT January 30, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Rooms Forum

EUR/USD daily pivot point, which held dead on as resistance Friday, comes in at 1.3906 on Monday, Click for chart points


GVI Forex Jay 13:56 GMT January 30, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Rooms Forum

This is why we suggest discussion rather than just being a viewer as no one person has all the answers. See this...


GVI Forex Jay 13:09 GMT January 30, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Rooms Forum

The weekly EUR/USD chart is also revealing but key support levels are not until below 1.30. In this regard, the...


Hong Kong Qindex 12:22 GMT January 30, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/JPY : As shown in the monthly cycle reference normal lower limits GBP/JPY can go as low as 85.85 in 6 month period.

GBP/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

tokyo rana 11:05 GMT January 30, 2010

Entry: Target: Stop:

thanx for message...GBP/JPY not going under 118...what do you think aboted?ifeel that will go around 100 to 110yen in long term...

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains neutral for the moment and some more sideway trading might be seen above 143.62. But after all, upside is expected to be limited by 147.25 resistance and bring resumption of fall from 150.68. Below 143.62 will target 141.99 support. Break there will further affirm the bearish case that whole decline from 163.05 is resuming and should bring retest of 139.26 support next. However, note that break of 147.25 will dampen this bearish view and turn focus back to 149.49/150.68 resistance zone instead.

In the bigger picture, medium term rebound from 118.18, which is a correction to the long term down trend from 07 high of 251.90, has completed at 163.05 already. Fall from 163.05 is possibly resuming as consolidation pattern from 139.69 has likely finished at 150.68 already. Break of 139.26 will confirm this bearish case and target 61.8% retracement of 118.81 to 163.05 at 135.70 next. Break will further affirm the case that whole down trend from 2007 high of 251.90 is resuming for another low below 118.81. This will remain the preferred view as long as 150.68 resistance holds.

GBP/JPY: Some inter-day rising trend-line support has been broken which could now suggest that the market is prepping for a more significant drop towards 140.00 over the coming sessions. However, we retain no strong bias at current levels, with the market just as easily seen racing higher towards 150.00. Daily studies confirm neutral outlook. Key short-term levels to watch above and below come in by 147.30 and 143.65 respectively.

Read more: DailyFX - GBP/JPY Classical 01.29

GVI Forex Blog 10:56 GMT January 30, 2010 Reply   
Our immersion in the details of crises that have arisen over the past eight centuries and in data on them has led us to conclude that the most commonly repeated and most expensive investment advice ever given in the boom just before a financial crisis stems from the perception that 'this time is different.'

This Time Is Different

GVI Forex Jay 10:20 GMT January 30, 2010 Reply   
Nuts and Bolts: Trading Rooms Forum

The EUR/USD daily chart is very revealing. Key area is a cluster of key levels between 1.3735-50, which includes...


Hong Kong Qindex 08:12 GMT January 30, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

tokyo rana 05:13 GM : Send me an e-mail at [email protected] if you like to have more detailed analysis on GBP/JPY with our subscribed service.

Hong Kong Qindex 08:08 GMT January 30, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/JPY : The market is going to tackle the weekly cycle matrix system at 138.73 - 140.09 - 144.16.

Amman wfakhoury 07:48 GMT January 30, 2010
Tokyo rana
GBPJPY is the best to trade if you buy around 140.00
as I said in the mid of last year that this pair will consilidate
between 140.00 and 160.00 ,and this still valid.
If you are serious about your account I may assist you to achieve your target.

Hong Kong Qindex 05:18 GMT January 30, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

I will take a look on it later today after I finish my analysis on EUR/USD

tokyo rana 05:13 GMT January 30, 2010
QIndex Trading System

yes please tellme your idea kindly...bst regards

Hong Kong Qindex 04:32 GMT January 30, 2010
QIndex Trading System

tokyo rana 04:19 GMT - Hi, are you asking me the question?

Hong Kong Qindex 04:29 GMT January 30, 2010
QIndex Trading System

EUR/USD : The neutral buffer zone is 1.3797 - 1.3974.


1/28/2010 01:49:21 Qindex Hong Kong 18

Entry: Target: Stop:
EUR/USD : The short term downside targeting point is 1.3826.

01/28/2010 01:46:43 Qindex Hong Kong 19

Entry: Target: Stop:
EUR/USD : Critical Support 1.3744

Anything below 1.3744 is negative EUR/USD.

tokyo rana 04:19 GMT January 30, 2010
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/JPY lowest wat do you think?

Hong Kong Qindex 03:23 GMT January 30, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : When we examine the time cycle it is likely that the market will close higher than 1.3867 on April 29. Right now the question is how low the market will go in February.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:20 GMT January 30, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : When we examine the time cycle it is likely that the market will close higher than 1.3867 on April 29. Right now the question how low the market will go in February.


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