Forex Forum Archive for 01/31/2010

Syd 23:48 GMT January 31, 2010
Aussie Inflation Is On The March - TD Securities
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Australian inflation is on the march again, rising for third month in a row, which means RBA will soon have to start delivering much more hawkish rhetoric, says TD Securities Senior Strategist Annette Beacher, citing TD's monthly inflation gauge which rose 0.8% on month in January, 2.6% on year. "In the light of recent confirmation that the unemployment rate has in fact been falling since July 2009, there is an opportunity to ramp up the hawkish rhetoric via referring to shrinking spare capacity, to assist in dampening future inflationary expectations." RBA meets Tuesday, expected to hike by 25 bps to 4.0%.

dc CB 23:30 GMT January 31, 2010
Fed's Bullard: Risk Of Deflation Has 'Passed' - Report

Why would the Fed ever want to raise Fed Funds rate. This would raise the short term costs for the Hybrid Banks that now dominate. They would no longer be able to "borrow" at 0% and lend at 5%. Plus they would have to pay their depositors more than the "fantastic secure your future rate" (see any bank advert in any major newspaper) a Huge 1.06% for 36months.

Lordy it would bring down the system. Remember the Fed's job is to secure the System.

Syd 22:49 GMT January 31, 2010
Fed's Bullard: Risk Of Deflation Has 'Passed' - Report
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said the risk of deflation in the U.S. has "passed," The Financial Times reports on its Web site Sunday. In an interview, Bullard also told the FT that members of the Federal Open Markets Committee would be looking at factors besides unemployment and inflation when deciding on the time to tighten. Bullard also said the Fed may move away from targeting the federal funds rate and possibly target a repurchase rate, the FT reported. Bullard also said the recovery was on track, although "It's not a real strong recovery but that's what we had predicted anyway," the FT reported. Bullard also told the paper he "hoped" improvement in the labor market would be seen in the first quarter.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8f6a0622-0e94-11df-bd79-00144feabdc0.html

White House predicts record $1.6 trillion budget deficit this year

AUD/USD opportunity to reach parity looks to be slipping away, as USD is slowly expected to recover in tandem with U.S. economy and risk aversion remains dominant, though pair should still trade a higher range historically," says Mansoor Mohi-uddin, UBS' Singapore-based global head of foreign exchange strategy: says, "The Australian dollar won't test parity." Westpac forecasting a range of 0.8500-0.9500, BNP Paribas looking for 0.8700-0.9700. To be sure, pair could still push much higher from 0.8828 where it's trading early Asia, though a test of the psychological US$1.00 levels seems further away. "I can see good arguments for a stronger Australian dollar. I can't see compelling arguments for a weaker U.S. dollar," says Westpac strategist Robert Rennie.

tokyo rana 21:59 GMT January 31, 2010
gbpjpy

gbp
Entry: Target: Stop:

thanx for reply..ithink itis heading to 130 135...i am wrong?

Syd 21:21 GMT January 31, 2010
DJ AUD Sliding, Needs More Clarity On Global Worries
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AUD weakness continuing over weekend, likely to last until risk-seeking investors get some information on a host of global economic concerns, says a senior forex trader with a Sydney-based investment bank. "It's a good clean out, with people looking for a little more clarity on the European situation, namely Greece, and the impact of possible moves from China and President Obama," says trader. Over weekend, AUD/USD pushed further past 0.9000 and recently traded at 0.8797--its lowest level in more than a month. On a technical basis, says levels of support are 0.8730 and then 0.8650, although AUD has pushed passed several support levels in past week.

FSA's Lord Turner signals crackdown on carry trade
Lord Turner, chairman of the Financial Services Authority, has signalled a regulatory crackdown on foreign exchange carry trades which he insisted served little or no useful social and wider economic purpose.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/71
04157/FSAs-Lord-Turner-signals-crackdown-on-carry-trade.html

Should Germany bail out Club Med or leave the euro altogether?
Germany faces a terrible dilemma. Either Europe's paymaster agrees to underwrite a Greek bail-out and drops its vehement opposition to a de facto EU economic government, treasury, and debt union, or the euro will start to unravel, and with it Germany's strategic investment in the post-war order.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/7119986/Should-Germany-bail-out-Club-Med-or-leave-the-euro-altogether.html

GVI Forex futures 20:27 GMT January 31, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

EURO FX positions from weekly Commitment of Traders Report...

		
EUR	        Longs	Shorts	Net
12/22/2009	40925	55252	-14327
12/29/2009	34132	67929	-33797
1/5/2010	37229	73017	-35788
1/12/2010	36186	54103	-17917
1/19/2010	34186	59468	-25282
1/26/2010	33106	72645	-39539

GVI Forex Blog 19:36 GMT January 31, 2010 Reply   
Further falls in US equities were sentiment rather than event related. The S&P500 closed 1.0% lower, amid heavy volume, in contrast to the light volume seen during the early January rally. US data

Forex Research - Morning Report

Mtl JP 19:21 GMT January 31, 2010
LORD OF WAR

SYD... on Friday Clinton threatened Beijing it risks disruption to its energy supplies unless it helps keep Islamic Republic from developing nuclear weapons...
=
ballsy or stupid ?

PAR 19:16 GMT January 31, 2010
LORD OF WAR
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By Andrew Browne And Jason Dean
BEIJING—China's suspension of military exchanges with the U.S. in retaliation for a $6.4 billion arms sale to Taiwan heightens the risk of friction between Beijing and Washington at a time when they are already at loggerheads over a host of security and economic issues.

China announced the freeze on military exchanges Saturday, and summoned the U.S. ambassador to Beijing for a formal complaint, following the Obama administration's announcement Friday that it is proceeding with the sale of antimissile systems, helicopters and other arms to Taiwan.

U.S. officials believe the risks with China can be contained, with neither side wanting to allow what is arguably the most important bilateral relationship in the world to veer out of control.

Still, relations are likely to get rockier before any improvement, as the Obama administration appears increasingly frustrated by Beijing's refusal to budge on a range of sensitive subjects, from Iran to currency policy to climate change. Further raising the temperature, President Barack Obama is expected to meet soon with the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan spiritual leader Beijing denounces as a separatist for his efforts to win greater autonomy for the Himalayan region.

PAR 18:52 GMT January 31, 2010
US TWIN DEFICITS - AFTER THE ELECTIONS
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WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama on Monday will unveil a budget that must balance his short-term political imperative to boost jobs, while convincing investors he has a credible plan to curb record deficits over time.

Obama has previewed key details of his budget for fiscal 2011, including a freeze on some domestic spending and a commission on fiscal responsibility. He has also told creditors like China he understands that failing to tackle the deficit could ultimately erode confidence in the United States.

Obama risks being painted in an election year by his Republican Party foes as a tax-and-spend liberal after he pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy. He said this action was vital to staving off a depression, while Republicans say the money was misspent.

PAR 18:46 GMT January 31, 2010
FDIC
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RTTNews) - The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or FDIC announced Friday the shuttering of the 15th U.S. bank in 2010, after the 140 bank closures in 2009, following the closure of Bainbridge Island, Washington-based American Marine Bank by the Washington Department of Financial Institutions. Another five banks were also closed on Friday by the regulators, with the assets of the failed banks beings assumed by other banks in an FDIC assisted transaction.

The other five banks that closed on Friday are Carrollton, Georgia-based First National Bank of Georgia, Immokalee, Florida-based Florida Community Bank, Hallock, Minnesota-based Marshall Bank, National Association, Cornelia, Georgia-based Community Bank and Trust, and Los Angeles, California-based First Regional Bank.

sofia kaprikorn 17:08 GMT January 31, 2010
2/10 bond spreads trending lower
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hello,

i did a brief research on bond yields and would appreciate any feedback and suggestions as I assume the trending lower of the 2/10year spread as a possible negative signal for the economic recovery - as flattening as opposed to steepening of the spread and the yield curve is typically interpreted bad sign for economy.

I might be mistaken in interpolating the yield curve flattening to the spread direction - I would deeply appreciate any advice and suggestions:

here is the link:
2-10 spread direction as a bad sign

moscow mike 14:50 GMT January 31, 2010
USDJPY

Chris, level of price "rotation". Above - bias on upside, below - downside. Intraday - is 1 2 3 day horizont.

GT

sofia kaprikorn 14:02 GMT January 31, 2010
historical bond yields
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doing some research - here is an interesting historical chart
SPX - 30YUST

http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/spxusb1978.html

seems the 80 with Volcker's high yields are far away - but since we are in the last 30 years' higher range if the idea of markets tending to revert to the mean maybe we should see bond selloff and higher yields again, no?

London 13:44 GMT January 31, 2010
News
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These headlines are from the FT front page.

China threatens US arms companies
Beijing lashes out over Taiwan weapons package

Bankers in favour of paying global fee
Lenders seek level playing field.

US GDP growth fastest in six years
Speed of growth boosts hopes of strong recovery

Obama sets stage for fiscal retrenchment
President vows to pullback America’s $1,400bn fiscal deficit

Toyota recalls up to 1.8m vehicles in Europe
US Congress to probe accelerator pedal faults

Madrid seeks to bolster credibility
Plan to shrink deficit by €50bn by 2013

Republicans eye high-profile US Senate races
GOP targets Obama’s former Illinois seat

London Chris 12:54 GMT January 31, 2010
USDJPY

Mike how do you define "Current major intraday pivot"

moscow mike 11:43 GMT January 31, 2010
USDJPY
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USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

Long term trend is still down in consolidation phase. However it has signs of possible correction higher with 52-week low and double bottom being in place. Level to watch to keep this structural view is 89.30. Weekly closing below puts recent lows at 84.80 to risk. Last week level of 89.30 proved its supporting strength so far. Closing week above 93.50 will confirm clear structure change to the upside.

Current major intraday pivot comes at 90.50 with next important level at 91.00.

Conclusion: going long at current levels with guidance from intraday trending tools with stops below 89.30 OR wait for the break of 90.50 with buy stop orders.

Amman wfakhoury 10:33 GMT January 31, 2010
gbpjpy
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tokyo rana 16:04 GMT January 30, 2010
tellme: Reply
Buy GBPJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

any body know about GBPJPY next target?

=============
Is heading twd 142.00 with posiblity to rise to 145.20-50
during that. keeping above 145.00 means trend changed into uptrend and 148.00 can be seen again.