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Forex Forum Archive for 02/16/2010

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Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Syd 23:40 GMT February 16, 2010
Australia Dec Westpac - MI Leading Index +6.2% Annualized
Reply   
Aussie Econ Index Suggests New Boom Approaches
Westpac Leading Index posts stellar annualized growth of 6.2% in December, sending strong signal that a robust economic recovery underway in Australia. Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan describes rebound as dramatic with indicator hitting cyclical low of a contraction of 6.9% in May 2009. Rebound is fastest reversal since economy bounced out of recession in mid 1970s. Says it also puts growth outlook on par with that seen in 2007 at height of Australia's boom. Data will strongly play in favor of a resumption of rate hikes by RBA sooner rather than later.

Gen dk 23:01 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex john 22:42 GMT February 16, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Click for Complete Chart Points

2/16/2010

EUR/USD

USD/JPY

USD/CHF

GBP/USD

USD/CAD

Res 3

1.4023

91.31

1.0882

1.6012

1.0571

Res 2

1.3901

90.91

1.0836

1.5904

1.0535

Res 1

1.3833

90.52

1.0747

1.5845

1.0483

P=(H+L+C)/3

1.3711

90.12

1.0701

1.5737

1.0447

Sup 1

1.3643

89.73

1.0612

1.5678

1.0395

Sup 2

1.3521

89.33

1.0566

1.5570

1.0359

Sup 3

1.3453

88.94

1.0477

1.5511

1.0307

 

EUR/GBP

EUR/JPY

EUR/CHF

AUD/USD

GBP/JPY

Res 3

0.8816

127.10

1.4746

0.9218

144.84

Res 2

0.8780

125.79

1.4717

0.9122

143.71

Res 1

0.8749

124.94

1.4696

0.9069

143.02

P=(H+L+C)/3

0.8713

123.63

1.4667

0.8973

141.89

Sup 1

0.8682

122.78

1.4646

0.8920

141.20

Sup 2

0.8646

121.47

1.4617

0.8824

140.07

Sup 3

0.8615

120.62

1.4596

0.8771

139.38

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GVI Forex Blog 22:15 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   
The Canadian dollar jumped to its highest level in more than three weeks against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as confidence in the global economy, as well as rising commodity prices, helped fuel

Forex News - CANADA FX DEBT-C$ hits 3-week high on renewed risk appetite

Syd 22:02 GMT February 16, 2010
CAD May Have Hit Weakest Point For A While - CIBC
Reply   
CIBC World Markets says USD has bounced off its 1Q target of 1.0700 vs CAD, and that might mark the weakest level for CAD in the next couple of quarters. "We're looking for a move through parity by autumn if the Bank of Canada hikes rates ahead of the Fed," it says.

Fed's Hoenig: Failure To Control US Debt May Bring Next Crisis
Kansas City Fed Pres Hoenig warns the U.S. central bank may come under political pressure to finance the rising debt, a move that could bring higher inflation. "Fiscal policy is on an unsustainable course. The U.S. government must make adjustments in its spending and tax programs. It is that simple," Hoenig said. "If pre-emptive corrective action is not taken regarding the fiscal outlook, then the United States risks precipitating its own next crisis".LINK

China sends $US35bn message to US as Japan moves to top position in US Treasuries
"China is trying to send a subtle economic and political message to the US through the deployment of its foreign exchange reserve holdings," said Eswar Prasad, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
LINK

Syd 21:32 GMT February 16, 2010
DJ MARKET TALK:NZD/AUD May Test Support At 0.7790 In Coming Weeks
Reply   
NZD/AUD likely to test bottom end of recent 0.7800-0.8100 range over coming weeks, says Bank of NZ Strategist Mike Jones. Pair last 0.7837 vs 0.7849 late yesterday. Says dairy prices showing signs of peaking while Australian commodity prices forecast to rise another 15% this year. Also, Australian markets look to be underpricing chances of near-term RBA tightening, while rally in NZ interest rate markets may have further to run. "As such, we suspect NZD/AUD will test support towards 0.7790 in coming weeks."

GVI Forex Blog 21:16 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   
21:00 GMT- Feb 16 (global-view.com) The USD traded sharply weaker vs. Europe Tuesday. USD short-covering and a modest risk trade appeared to be in play. Earlier, German ZEW figures...

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Risk Trade Back

Syd 21:13 GMT February 16, 2010
Treasury report
Reply   
Associated Press:
Treasury report of long term purchases of US stocks and bonds was $63.3B, more than expected $50.3B but down sharply from the previous month's $126.4B. China, a seller of $34.2B of US Treasuries. This was the second month in a row that China was a net seller of US securities. With the reduction of the Chinese ownership of US debt, Japan has now become the largest owner of US notes and bonds. "The Treasury Department reported that foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities fell by $53 billion in December, surpassing the previous record of a $44.5 billion drop in April 2009."

GVI Forex john 21:13 GMT February 16, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support


The Daily Forex View

Risk Trade Back

21:00 GMT- Feb 16 (global-view.com) The USD traded sharply weaker vs. Europe Tuesday. USD short-covering and a modest risk trade appeared to be in  play. Earlier, German ZEW figures...

MORE...

ABHA FXS 20:40 GMT February 16, 2010
WEEKLY EURUSD
Reply   
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

BEST WEEKLY ENTRY SELL LEVEL AT..

13939
13930
13921
13912

BEST WEEKLY EXIT LEVEL AT ..

13461
13451
13442
13433

FXS

GVI Forex Blog 20:19 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   
Last week, the market showed that it wanted to keep the AUD/USD in consolidation and rejected any further breakout from the downsloping channel. The 4H time-frame shows the upsloping trendline...

Daily Technical Update AUD/USD Eyes 0.92

GVI Forex Blog 19:58 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   
US equity investors returned from their long-weekend in a buoyant mood, gapping the S&P500 1.3% higher. Supportive was

Forex Research - Morning Report

prague mark 19:51 GMT February 16, 2010
EURUSD

whats your first resistance level?

Mtl JP 19:36 GMT February 16, 2010
EURUSD

AS 18:28 market usually trades on the margin, meaning everything that is known is priced in.

Personally, perhaps due to my being underfunded, perhaps to just being one sceptical, greedy and self-protecting moneywhore, I am unwilling to "not revise my long-term stuff untill i see what FED minutes trow, lest I become tragicomedy.

From my simpletonian tech view, should euro close above 10dma should see bit more oomph UP, fundamentals notwithstanding. For me, debts and lies are now "the new normal".

GVI Forex Blog 19:25 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   
Greece gets 30 days to right the wrong Japan overtakes China as U.S. Treasury king EUR snaps higher More rhetoric from BoJ's Shirakawa Does SNB lack enough firepower?

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (16 February 2010)

Jerusalem kb 18:52 GMT February 16, 2010
pending order for gold

you are welcome boss

Belgrade AS 18:45 GMT February 16, 2010
20-day resistance turn into a support?
Reply   
Buy EURGBP
Entry: 0.8721 Target: Stop: 0.8695

taking the "risk" out of the game.1/2 out @0.8745
target for 2/2 open for now.

Lahore FM 18:45 GMT February 16, 2010
pending order for gold

thanx for the chart kb and for your shared view!

Jerusalem kb 18:42 GMT February 16, 2010
pending order for gold



gold daily chart

Jerusalem kb 18:36 GMT February 16, 2010
pending order for gold

Sell OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:

canceled my sell order for gold as we have a daily breakout yestrday and we may see higher gold price in next several days. it may go down a lottl but after all it will continue going up.
having eye on it to enter on better trade setup when it is time to.

Belgrade AS 18:28 GMT February 16, 2010
EURUSD

Mtl JP 15:59 is right! this is short covering before FED minutes tomorow...no sane person could develop an appetite for risk in the middle of dubai's 60cents stuff+greece+china...all at the same time,for God's sake!
false break-out is the name,fading should be the game,right?
i will not revise my long-term stuff untill i see what FED minutes trow into this tragicomedy

Lahore FM 18:22 GMT February 16, 2010
Trade Ideas

Buy USDJPY
Entry: 90.16 Target: up Stop: 89.90

added with a tighter sl to previous longs usdjpy.

sofia kaprikorn 18:17 GMT February 16, 2010
21-DMA pull

sofia kaprikorn 16:35 GMT February 16, 2010
short EUR/GBP 0.8738 / sl 0.8755
____________________________
closed at 0.8720

Luzern 18:11 GMT February 16, 2010
thanks for your information. helps a little. greeting sito
Reply   
thanks for your information. helps a little. greeting sito

Lahore FM 18:02 GMT February 16, 2010
Trade Ideas

yes SFH,it has some promise!i think we opened shorts almost simultaneously.

London SFH 18:00 GMT February 16, 2010
Trade Ideas

I like that trade fm, I am short the march contract at 77.00 fwiw

gl/gt

Lahore FM 17:55 GMT February 16, 2010
Trade Ideas

Sell OTHER
Entry: 77.40 Target: Stop: 78.65

short on april crude now at 77.40 with a stop.

Richland QC Mailman 17:55 GMT February 16, 2010
cable

from the forex gods. hihihi got stopped out too. but holding possies 1.5740's with new possie 1.5780. I was taken by surprise.

Lahore FM 17:53 GMT February 16, 2010
Trade Ideas

02/12/2010 11:13:21 FM Lahore 26
02/11/2010 20:59:14 FM Lahore 3

Sell OTHER
Entry: 75.13 Target: 72.00/68.00 Stop: 76.60
sold here.,march crude.

yes jj,same implication!
--
took another portion out at 73.65 now for 1 doll and 50 sents..remainder 4/10th will go out at 68.00.
--
this short was stopped 15 cents above entry for gain of a dollar and some.

Belgrade AS 17:50 GMT February 16, 2010
cable

stoped out for -150 on my intraday plays ...still holding long term shorts(1,5700,15715x2 and 1,5735x2)...with my long term nzdusd shorts triggering like fireworks and an obvious need to place some long term shorts in high 1,57s (cable),i just couldn't afford to bother with them anymore(shortterm stuff)
so,where is this appetite for risk coming from?

Lahore FM 17:47 GMT February 16, 2010
Trade Ideas

Sell OTHER
Entry: 1116.60 Target: Stop: later today

short at 1116.60 again.stops later.

Lahore FM 17:46 GMT February 16, 2010
Trade Ideas

02/16/2010 08:00:38 FM Lahore 2

Sell OTHER
Entry: 1111.90 Target: Stop: 1117
sold more.
--
two gold shorts stopped out for minus 5 usd and minus 16 usd.

Jerusalem kb 17:33 GMT February 16, 2010
forming macd divergent in h4 and h1 chart

thanks a lot
cheers

tokyo rana 17:30 GMT February 16, 2010
gbpjpy
Reply   
gbpjpy non stop going up...big misstake sell to much money losing....
ihope come down from 143...

NYC JM 17:24 GMT February 16, 2010
forming macd divergent in h4 and h1 chart

kb, another nice trade and well presented.

Jerusalem kb 17:21 GMT February 16, 2010
forming macd divergent in h4 and h1 chart

Sell USDCHF
Entry: 1.0750 Target: 1.0650 Stop: 1.0850

sold for target and lower to 1.0570

closed with 80 pips plus
can not hold any more as i still belive it is a temperory drop

Gen dk 17:08 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Chicago SC 16:57 GMT February 16, 2010
Market Conditions

Zeus- good to see you back. Can u explain re market conditions?

Richland QC Mailman 16:57 GMT February 16, 2010
cable

added gbp/usd shorts 1.5740's and 30's.

GVI Forex Blog 16:49 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   
The greenback put in a mixed performance against the major pairs during the New York morning but managed to shrug off higher energy and metals prices. EUR/USD is gaining some momentum

Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

Gen dk 16:49 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex Blog 16:48 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   
The market is showing reversal signals before the 1.09 area that was projected last week. The stochastic shows bearish divergence, and price action is showing bearish takeover. This price action...

FXTimes: Daily Technical Update USD/CHF Reversal Signal

USA ZEUS 16:42 GMT February 16, 2010
Market Conditions
Reply   
Market conditions are ripe for traders.

Belgrade AS 16:38 GMT February 16, 2010
cable

Sell GBPUSD
Entry: 1,5670 Target: Stop:
------------------------------
will add in 1,5720/35 area , [email protected],5780
don't get where all this appetite is coming from...guess i have to wait on hawkish BOE tomorow morning to collect profits for these babies.

sofia kaprikorn 16:35 GMT February 16, 2010
21-DMA pull
Reply   
short EUR/GBP 0.8738 / sl 0.8755

Richland QC Mailman 16:23 GMT February 16, 2010
gbpusd 15745

not yet wfak.

Jerusalem kb 16:20 GMT February 16, 2010
forming macd divergent in h4 and h1 chart

Sell USDCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

Sell USDCHF
Entry: 1.0750 Target: 1.0650 Stop: 1.0850

sold for target and lower to 1.0570

stoploss to break even holding for final target.
hope i am adding something for this fom
going to have some rest now

Amman wfakhoury 16:18 GMT February 16, 2010
gbpusd 15745
Reply   
is coming

Jerusalem kb 16:05 GMT February 16, 2010
EURUSD

eurousd is now trading above trend line ploted on h4 chart from 14-1-2010 high passng through 11-2-2010 high applied to close price
i expect 1.3800/880 may be seen this week.
last night i entered a long position based on hr1 trend line breakout but i exit at 85pips+ exactly at falling trend line on h4 hour chart ( strong macd divergent and low tic flow fuel this outlook).

GVI Forex Blog 16:02 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   

Shift in Risk Sentiment Boosting U.S. Equities

Mtl JP 15:59 GMT February 16, 2010
EURUSD

SC 15:56 - weak shorts being flushed out ?

GVI Forex Blog 15:59 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   

Euro Rebounds Versus Dollar; Trader Demand for Risk Picks Up

Hong Kong Qindex 15:58 GMT February 16, 2010
QIndex Trading System

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD and Gold is running at a strong mode.

Chicago SC 15:56 GMT February 16, 2010
EURUSD
Reply   
I have to admit that the extent of the EUR/USD rise has surprised me today. Its much stronger than I might have expected. Any explanation??

GVI Forex Blog 15:52 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   
UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Trading volume should continue to expand on Wednesday, as markets continue to struggle to get back to normalcy after storm stoppages last week. Some Asian centers will be closed all week for the Lunar New Year Observances.

GVI Forex- Data Outlook for February 17, 2010

GVI Forex john 15:48 GMT February 16, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Feb 16 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Trading volume should continue to expand on Wednesday, as markets continue to struggle to get back to normalcy after storm stoppages last week. Some Asian centers will be closed all week for the Lunar New Year Observances. In Europe, U.K. jobs data and the BOE minutes are due. EZ trade is slated as well. The U.S. has an active schedule with weekly mortgage statistics, import prices, housing starts/permits, Industrial production and capacity utilization due.

 

 

WEDNESDAY

 

 

0:01

CN

New Year

n/a

n/a

9:30

UK

Dec Avg Earn 3m yy

0.80%

1.60%

9:30

UK

Jan Claimant Cnt k

-10

-15.2

9:30

UK

BOE Minutes

n/a

n/a

10:00

EZ

Dec Trade EURb

5

4.8

12:00

US

WK Mtg Stats

n/a

n/a

13:30

US

Dec Imp Prices

0.80%

0.00%

13:30

US

Jan House Starts k

580

557

13:30

US

Jan Bldg Permits k

600

653

14:15

US

Jan Ind Prod

0.80%

0.60%

14:15

US

Jan Cap Util

72.60%

72.00%

19:00

US

Fed Minutes

n/a

n/a

 

 

THURSDAY

 

 

0:01

CN

New Year

n/a

n/a

4:30

JA

BOJ Rates (0.10%)

unch

unch

7:15

CH

Jan Trade CHF bn

n/a

1360

10:00

CH

Feb ZEW Inv Sent

n/a

56.2

13:30

US

Jan PPI

0.70%

0.20%

13:30

US

Jan PPI core

0.10%

0.00%

13:30

US

Wk Initial Claims k

430

440

13:30

US

WK Cont Claims mn

4.5

4.538

15:00

US

Feb Philly Fed

17

15.2

15:00

US

Jan Lead Ind

0.60%

1.10%

15:30

US

DOE Nat Gas bcf

n/a

-191

16:00

US

EIA Crude mn

n/a

2.3

16:00

US

EIA Gasoline mn

n/a

-1.3

16:00

US

EIA Distillate mn

n/a

-1

16:00

US

EIA Cap Util

n/a

77.7

Amman wfakhoury 15:46 GMT February 16, 2010
gbpjpy ready to move 150-200 pips
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 08:18 GMT February 16, 2010
gbpjpy ready to move 150-200 pips: Reply
mostly will touch 14150 again , and breaking this level and keeps above it will take us to 143.00

-----
we are here at 141.50..keeping above this level will take us to 14300

Gen dk 15:46 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Belgrade AS 15:43 GMT February 16, 2010
cable

Sell GBPUSD
Entry: 1,5670 Target: Stop:

intraday play!
eurusd is going to bounce off 200-hour MA and with eurgbp charging above 20-dayMA resistance,it's going to spell "DISASTER" for gbpusd

tokyo rana 15:42 GMT February 16, 2010
cable

really?
thanx for info.
best regards,

Juffair KaL 15:39 GMT February 16, 2010
cable

seems ok to sell here rana

tokyo rana 15:31 GMT February 16, 2010
cable

you said you will short gbpjpy at 143...
still 143 possible?
im selling now...what is view?
gbpjpy donot understand..
best regards,

Belgrade AS 15:29 GMT February 16, 2010
cable

hi Mailman.i think it's a pretty safe bet...i mean,sooner or later(intraday)all those poor suckers will want to get out of their impulsive trades....their "glide" will turn into a nasty "slide" by NY close.

Juffair KaL 15:19 GMT February 16, 2010
cable

audusd to .8620 easy

madrid MM 15:15 GMT February 16, 2010
Currency Trading Is Place to Make Your Fortune: Matthew Lynn
Reply   
FWIW and it is funy

Feb. 16 (Bloomberg) -- This columnist is usually reluctant to respond to requests for career advice that occasionally find their way into my e-mail box.

Yet from time to time, there is a move so obvious for anyone finishing college or university this year, or contemplating their next step up the career ladder, that it is worth pointing out.

And right now it is this:

Forget hedge funds, walk away from private equity and tell the derivatives boys they can dump their baffling mathematical formulas in the dustbin under the desk.

Instead, become a currency trader. They are set to become the new kings of the financial markets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aXOz8SejRo0w

8-)

And Señor Webber seems the favorite to win the ECB race...
The inflation fighter is coming our way !!!! Be afraid ,be very afraid !!!!
8-)

Richland QC Mailman 15:15 GMT February 16, 2010
cable

HI AS. Yup, we did. we have shorted the pair on the break of 1.5650... looking for a break of the daily and 4-hr pennant TL support.

Juffair KaL 15:15 GMT February 16, 2010
cable

what is the question Rana???
they are selling cable now imo

Belgrade AS 15:13 GMT February 16, 2010
cable

daytraders bought so much into last dip that long/short ratio climbed to 1,6.this is another strong(and pretty reliable) signal to sell more cable.

tokyo rana 15:07 GMT February 16, 2010
cable

hello,
howare you?
what is want gbp cable?
best regards

Juffair KaL 15:07 GMT February 16, 2010
cable

gold
selling to 1040
no biggy

Syd 15:03 GMT February 16, 2010
Greece, China hold rate keys
Reply   
THE Reserve Bank is likely to raise its official interest rate over the rest of the year by between 100 and 200 basis points. That's one to two full percentage points. Subject to two huge qualifications, the 100 appears all but done, and the 'up to 200' remains very possible.LINK

Juffair KaL 15:01 GMT February 16, 2010
cable

DJI is finished here
bought aapl puts for 184 tgt

GVI Forex Jay 14:49 GMT February 16, 2010
Greece

I read an article stating that around 30% of the Greek economy is underground, meaning it is not taxed. The austerity measures will only increase this %.

GVI Forex john 14:43 GMT February 16, 2010
Greece

Hamburg- thank you. Interesting, but I would guess hard to enforce??

Hamburg 98ccm 14:39 GMT February 16, 2010
Greece

Maybe off topic, pls excuse, did you know Greeks are no longer permitted cash transactions in excess off €1500?
Only bank transfer and credit card payments are legal. Banks are required to report any transactions to the state, real time. No wonder Greeks are taking to the streets

tokyo rana 14:34 GMT February 16, 2010
gbpjpy sold 141.100
Reply   
Sell GBPJPY
Entry: 141.100 Target: open Stop: open

gbpjpy sold 141.100 any view comment?
regards

Juffair KaL 14:33 GMT February 16, 2010
cable
Reply   
shorts for 1.5320 next week no problem

sofia kaprikorn 14:22 GMT February 16, 2010
volatility b/o

sofia kaprikorn 14:20 GMT February 16, 2010
-----------------------------
added 1/2 at 0.8706 / avg. 0.8702
___ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ ___
closed 1/2 at 0.8727
___________________
and remaining 1/2 at 0.8732.

sofia kaprikorn 14:20 GMT February 16, 2010
volatility b/o

sofia kaprikorn 09:06 GMT February 16, 2010
long EUR/GBP 0.8698 / SL 0.8678
-----------------------------
added 1/2 at 0.8706 / avg. 0.8702
___ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ ___
closed 1/2 at 0.8727

Hong Kong Qindex 14:12 GMT February 16, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Sell USDCAD
Entry: Target: Stop:

02/15/2010 15:55:37 Qindex Hong Kong 7

Sell USDCAD
Entry: Target: Stop:
USD/CAD : The followings are still valid :




02/13/2010 03:42:46 Qindex Hong Kong 6

Sell USDCAD
Entry: Target: Stop:
USD/CAD : Heading Towards 1.0430



The general bias is on downside when the market is trading below 1.0607. The market was rejected from the daily cycle matrix system at 1.0413 - 1.0472 - 1.0490 on Friday. Basically another set of levels in the daily cycle matrix system at 1.0535 - 1.0583 - 1.0644 is acting as a short term resistant ranges. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the weekly cycle matrix system at 1.0471 - 1.0667 - 1.0760.


As shown in the distribution profile of the monthly cycle probability chart the market is pulling towards 1.0430. The market is under pressure when it is below the monthly cycle pivot center at 1.0650. Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy.



USD/CAD : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex/com/cad.html

Belgrade AS 14:00 GMT February 16, 2010
Greece

hi Taro!
the way i see it-if you take away all the dirty lies,the greek tragedy comes down to :
1)greece never even asked for financial help!!!!
2)no one cares to help them anyway!
-----------------------------
if you care to focus more on risk on/risk off , i suggest following up on dubai's "60 cent per dollar" and china's tightening headlines.
hope i'm not wrong...

Hong Kong Qindex 13:56 GMT February 16, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Buy
Entry: Target: Stop:

Gold : Heading Towards 1127.4


The market is now working on the barrier at 1115.7 // 1130.0. The odds are in favor of maintaining a long position when the market is able to consolidate within the daily cycle normal upper limits at 1118.0 - 1121.6 - 1152.3. As shown in the section of long term references for position traders in my webpage (at the bottom of the page) 1152.5 is the last member of the series in the monthly cycle reference normal lower limits. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market momentum is strong enough to overcome the resistant point at 1152.6.



Gold : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/gc.html

GVI Forex Jay 13:52 GMT February 16, 2010
Greece

Taro, read our Daily Forex View report

EUR/USD is firmer despite the lack of a clear bailout agrreement.

Montréal Taro 13:49 GMT February 16, 2010
Greece
Reply   
What is going with Greece ? Many people refered to it lately, what about it ?

Jerusalem kb 13:45 GMT February 16, 2010
pending order for gold

Buy OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:

2% risk is enought for this trade

GVI Forex Jay 13:31 GMT February 16, 2010
EUR/USD
Reply   


I posted this earlier on GVI Forex and EUR/USD bounced off 1.3634. Note significance of 200 hour mva.

GVI Forex Jay 11:45 GMT February 16, 2010
eur/usd: Reply

After looking at the Greece news (or lack thereof), I would not have been surprised to walk in and see eur/usd with a 1.34 handle yet here it is around 1.3650. Price action appears to be some minor relief/short-covering and an increase in risk can be seen by firmer commodity currencies.

Key level in the EUR/USD remains the 200 hour mva as this pair has traded below it since Jan 15. It currently comes in around 1.3694, which is also around the Feb 12 high (1,3696), making this a key area that would need to be broken to suggest more legs to this correction attempt.

To sum up, EUR/USD should be lower, not higher and bounce, a modest one so far, probably reflects a market already heavily short. It has since come off its high but is still up on the day, leaving those like me walking in not sure where to turn as it trades mid-range. One level to watch on the downside is yesterday's high at 1.3634, which would need to become support to keep the risk on the 1.3695 area.

Jerusalem kb 13:26 GMT February 16, 2010
forming macd divergent in h4 and h1 chart
Reply   
Sell USDCHF
Entry: 1.0750 Target: 1.0650 Stop: 1.0850

sold for target and lower to 1.0570

sofia kaprikorn 13:16 GMT February 16, 2010
volatility b/o

btw - EUR/GBP rebounded off its 89-Week MA - now at 0.8645 - it's a critical level to hold the downtrend - below is a void with 0.84 first stop and then 200-Week MA at 0.77xx.

sofia kaprikorn 13:06 GMT February 16, 2010
volatility b/o

hi - I regard ur view and concur.

my points of interest are the 21-DMA at 8717 and the 200hourly MA at 8739 - hourly pattern of BBands favored a spike higher so I hold with with 8688 level to negate this scenario.
---
big picture - yes it needs to close above 8717 /21-DMA/ to make 2-nd attempt to reach the 200-DMA at 8825.
close below 8657 confirms downtrend.

all the best, druje!

tokyo rana 13:02 GMT February 16, 2010
gbpjpy
Reply   
Buy GBPJPY
Entry: 140.800 Target: 143 Stop: open

long gbpjpy 140.800 target 143

Belgrade AS 13:00 GMT February 16, 2010
volatility b/o



forgot to include the "big picture"...sorry

Wall Street 12:59 GMT February 16, 2010
EURUSD
Reply   
Neutrality in our day trading system in the EUR/USD is now 1.3650. We are using 25-35 pips as our fluctuation bands around the neutral level.

Belgrade AS 12:48 GMT February 16, 2010
volatility b/o

kaprikorn,here's what i got on eurgbp...technically,all rallies should be capped by 0.8830.ultrashort-term,you will want to watch out for 20-dayMA.
short-term :S=0.8650 , R=20dayMA
mid term : S=0.8600 , R=200dayMA
preffered strategy:0.86-0.88 range-i recomend only selling from the upside(with the larger downtrend in mind still in tacked.
fundamentaly,both eur and gbp are damaged goods-not worth holding against any other ccy,but quite fun playing one against other(this is due to risk aspect of both ccy cancelling out when played together).
fwiw-i just let go of my 0.8800 shorts...see comment bellow.
have fun!

Jeddah Abb 12:48 GMT February 16, 2010
buy
Reply   

Entry: Target: 90.8 Stop:

Today we can see usd/jpy above 90.50 and near 91? with stop at 89.40

GVI Forex john 12:27 GMT February 16, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Data Call @ 13:30GMT

Empire State Purchasing Managers Index –

Most major economies have purchasing managers indices (PMI) released monthly. They are compiled by various organizations. Some focus on the manufacturing sector while others measure the service sector. They are a very current measure of the economic health of the manufacturing or services sector. The PMI indices are usually based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

A PMI of greater than 50 represents expansion, compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.

We find the PMI indices to be useful predictors of future economic activity.

sofia kaprikorn 12:21 GMT February 16, 2010
volatility b/o

it's pretty common that obvious trades like this many times turn into fake breaks or linger until the real move happens - would appreciate any view on the EUR/GBP pair.

I personally see 0.8688 as make or break on hourlies and also would use it as stop for the averaged position.

GVI Forex Blog 12:12 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   

FX Thoughts for the day : 16-Feb-2010 - 1210 GMT

London ex 12:02 GMT February 16, 2010
$/yen
Reply   
Buy USDJPY
Entry: .8965 Target: .9020 Stop: .8940

Can't trade at the .9000 area. Need some divergence from current levels to put in a trade. I don't think Japan wants it any stronger.

NYC JM 12:00 GMT February 16, 2010
reversal signal for small correction

kb, nice eur/usd trade.

Jerusalem kb 11:47 GMT February 16, 2010
pending order for gold
Reply   
Sell OTHER
Entry: 1123.5 Target: 1042 Stop: 1145

let us say trade of the week or of the month.
will add at 1137 if 1124 be brokek and hold for final target

Como Perrie 11:38 GMT February 16, 2010
Ol' Nations bankrupting under old public managment schemes
Reply   
We feel the correct Aristotelian emotions of pity and fear. There but for the grace of God goes Britain, which also has a 13 % deficit.

Politicians evidently do not know Taxes are impacting Inflation, Public debts and Cut heavy into the purchasing power of their citizens (except parassites o.c.) - UK VAT Rise Had 'Significant Impact' On Jan CPI

Belgrade AS 11:34 GMT February 16, 2010
strategy for tonight

Belgrade AS 20:52 GMT February 9, 2010
strategy for tonight: Reply
Sell eurgbp
Entry: 0.8800 Target: 0.8650 Stop: 0.8875
------------------------------------
took profit @0.8700.think it's best to let go.
mr.Brown and mr.Darling are downplaying 14 month high CPI ... at the same time eur is firming...
btw,what's the deal with renewed risk appetite?have i missed something?

GVI Forex Blog 11:31 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   
The euro recovered some of its recent losses against the dollar on Tuesday, helped by an above-forecast German survey and as investors concluded much of the bad news on Greece's public finances was priced in for now.

FOREX NEWS-Euro recovers vs dollar, helped by ZEW

GVI Forex Blog 11:28 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   
Currencies: The dollar was softer in what traders deemed a 'relief rally' ahead of the EcoFin meeting in Brussels this session. The mid-March assessment of Greece likely to be the key event at this time.

European Market Update: German Zew survey likely reflected concerns over Greece's fiscal situation; BOE views rise in inflation as temporary

Jerusalem kb 11:25 GMT February 16, 2010
reversal signal for small correction

Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

target met for 85 pips plus

Gen dk 11:06 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex Blog 11:01 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   
12:00 GMT- Feb 16 (global-view.com) Markets appear to be a bit slow to return to action today with the Lunar New Year celebrations in some Asian centers

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Risk Trade Attempt

GVI Forex john 10:55 GMT February 16, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support
Reply   


The Daily Forex View

Risk Trade Attempt

12:00 GMT- Feb 16 (global-view.com)  Markets appear to be a bit slow to return to action today with the Lunar New Year celebrations in some Asian centers continuing all week. Forex markets continue to be dissatisfied with the outcome of talks about the Greek debt discussions

MORE...

London SFH 10:25 GMT February 16, 2010
Gold
Reply   

Gold is this raw commodity a safe haven investment....last week it was not, this week one thinks sure...it is...trade at your own risk, moon-shot today and at $1115.30 or (+25.30). Strength through 1097.75/1098.60 has opened an opportunity to extend towards the 1124.45 lower high. Sub 1077.55(Feb 12 low) defers.

GVI Forex Blog 10:15 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes.

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 16/02/2010

tokyo rana 10:10 GMT February 16, 2010
gbpjpy
Reply   
Sell GBPJPY
Entry: 141.2 Target: 140.8 Stop: open

sold 141.2 any view..regards

Viet Nam Forex Begin 09:48 GMT February 16, 2010
Forex Signal : 30 pips Daily !
Reply   
Sell GBPUSD
Entry: 1.5680 Target: 1.5650 Stop: 1.5710

In the morning today, GU-EU-AU move up trend continuously.

But they will down back next time when there are resistance prices.

Tuesday, 16 February 2010 09:48 GMT

Free Signals for morning today

sofia kaprikorn 09:06 GMT February 16, 2010
volatility b/o

sofia kaprikorn 09:01 GMT February 16, 2010
long EUR/GBP 0.8698 / SL 0.8678
-----------------------------
added 1/2 at 0.8706 / avg. 0.8702

sofia kaprikorn 09:01 GMT February 16, 2010
volatility b/o
Reply   
long EUR/GBP 0.8698 / SL 0.8678

tokyo rana 08:23 GMT February 16, 2010
gbpjpy ready to move 150-200 pips

i hope today make it 143 than come down to 130 135 soon as possible...
im waiting for that......
today gbpjpy not doing well.
audjpy eurjpy doing much better both are 60pips up from lowest.....

best regards,

Amman wfakhoury 08:18 GMT February 16, 2010
gbpjpy ready to move 150-200 pips
Reply   
mostly will touch 14150 again , and breaking this level and keeps above it will take us to 143.00

tokyo rana 08:14 GMT February 16, 2010
gbpjpy ready to move 150-200

thanx for message...ithink targeting 143...ithink rally is still weak so doubtful to make 143 or not...im wrong?best regards.

Amman wfakhoury 08:10 GMT February 16, 2010
gbpjpy ready to move 150-200
Reply   
it is now in up motion between the consildation area 141.50 and 14070 ,breaking this area and keeping up or below it will define the 150-200 direction.

Amman wfakhoury 08:05 GMT February 16, 2010
gbpusd 15745
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 10:24 GMT February 12, 2010
gbpusd 15745: Reply
15745 will be touched again.
----------
still awaiting to touch again 15745 since friday.

Lahore FM 08:00 GMT February 16, 2010
Trade Ideas

Sell OTHER
Entry: 1111.90 Target: Stop: 1117

sold more.

tokyo rana 08:00 GMT February 16, 2010
gbpjpy ready to move 150-200 pips

hello,
150 to 200 pips upside or down?
i heard 1st make it 143 than come down.
im wrong?
best regards

Amman wfakhoury 07:54 GMT February 16, 2010
gbpjpy ready to move 150-200 pips
Reply   
ready to move 150-200 pips if breaks 141.50 to upside
or 140.70 to downside.

Syd 07:41 GMT February 16, 2010
DJ BOJ WATCH: Market Looks For Hints Of Further Easing
Reply   
When the Bank of Japan's policy board ends its two-day meeting Thursday, the market's focus will be on what, if anything, its governor says about possible future easing steps.
If, on top of a slowdown in economic growth the yen strengthens and threatens to depress exports, and Japanese share prices drop, hurting investor sentiment, the BOJ may need to take more action, analysts said.

Political pressure could also increase. The ruling Democratic Party of Japan, whose support rates have been declining recently, could try to boost its popularity by showing the public its efforts to support the economy, including convincing the BOJ to loosen policy further.

tokyo rana 06:15 GMT February 16, 2010
gbpjpy
Reply   
Buy GBPJPY
Entry: 140.995 Target: 143 Stop: no

once again long gbpjpy 140.995 target open stop open...
any view regards,

Jerusalem kb 06:13 GMT February 16, 2010
reversal signal for small correction

Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

stop to entry at 1.3595 as i don`t trust 1.3650 ress.level

Syd 05:34 GMT February 16, 2010
RBS will let investors bet on property falls
Reply   
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/investment/article7026039.ece

Syd 05:11 GMT February 16, 2010
DJ UPDATE: RBA Signals More Rate Hikes Likely As Economy Recovers
Reply   
ustralian interest rates are likely to rise further in 2010 if the economy continues to grow solidly and confidence in the global outlook isn't sapped by further international shocks, the Reserve Bank of Australia said Tuesday.

In minutes of its Feb. 2 policy meeting, the RBA said its surprise decision to leave its cash rate target unchanged at 3.75% was "finely balanced" and more fine tuning of policy is likely.

Aggressive interest rate hikes at the close of 2009 gave it time to pause "for the time being" this month and rates don't need to rise at every meeting, but board "members expected that if economic conditions continued to improve as expected, further increases in the cash rate were likely to be necessary", the minutes said.The tone of the minutes indicates the RBA is set to remain one of the most aggressive central banks globally in 2010, but there is scope now for caution having led the way last year with hikes in October, November and December. NAB's confidence index rose seven points to plus-15 in January, while business conditions dropped seven points to plus-3.

Meanwhile concerns continue to grow about diminished spare capacity in Australia. The Housing Industry Association warned Tuesday of a growing shortage of skilled workers in the home building sector

HIA's chief economist, Harley Dale said that there was a shortage of labor in ten out of thirteen skilled trades at the end of 2009.

"The clock is ticking, however, given the competition across different sectors in 2010 for a limited pool of skilled labor. There is a clear risk that labor shortages will re-emerge as a significant constraint on the rate of recovery," he said.

House prices in Australia also getting a little ripe I would imagine !!
LINK

Syd 04:56 GMT February 16, 2010
AUD strength Tuesday could be trend for week RBC
Reply   
AUD strength Tuesday could be trend for week, says RBC Capital Markets' Strategist Sue Trinh. Says Greece debt developments won't be as market moving as they have been in past month, taking weight off AUD, with RBA testimony before parliament a possible catalyst. "The real key for Aussie domestic market is (RBA Governor Glenn) Stevens' testimony on Friday and he is very hawkish. Very rarely does he say anything dovish and that should support the Aussie into the end of the week," says Trinh. AUD/USD recently at 0.8928 up from 0.8887 late Monday, surging past prior resistance of 0.8925, with Trinh saying next test for pair is 0.9050.

Syd 04:29 GMT February 16, 2010
LNG ‘Boom’ to Boost Australian Economy, Goldman Says
Reply   
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=a5P1MEsmnxJQ

Australian Dollar Advances Toward Two-Week High on Rate Outlook
Any dips in the Australian dollar are “a good buying opportunity” said John Kyriakopoulos, head of currency strategy at National Australia Bank in Sydney. The currency may gain before central bank Governor Glenn Stevens’ parliamentary testimony on Feb. 19 as he is likely to take last month’s unexpected drop in the unemployment rate into account, Kyriakopoulos said.LINK

GVI Forex Blog 03:35 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   

Morning Briefing : 16-Feb-2010 - 0333 GMT

Syd 02:16 GMT February 16, 2010
DJ Australia's Opposition Would Sell Medibank Private If It Wins Next Election
Reply   
Australia's main opposition, the conservative Liberal-National coalition, would sell government-owned private health insurer Medibank Private if it wins the next election, Shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey said Tuesday.
He estimated the sale would raise between A$3.5 billion and A$4.5 billion, which would be used to pay down government debt. There is "plenty of competition" in the private health care sector, Hockey said in a speech to the National Press Club, which means there is no need for a government operator. The policy isn't a big surprise as the coalition had flagged prior to the last election in 2007 that it would sell Medibank if it won that poll but it was defeated by Labor.

Syd 01:48 GMT February 16, 2010
DJ RBA Debelle: RMBS Beginning To Provide Competitive Source Of Funding
Reply   
RBA Debelle: Exchange Rate Played Important Role In Buffering Economy
RBA Debelle: A$ Correlation With Equities Has Declined Significantly
RBA Debelle: Near Term Risk To Asia On Upside
RBA Debelle: Downside Risks Remain In US, Europe Financial Sector
RBA Debelle: Asia Bank Balance Sheets In Sound Condition
RBA Debelle: Expects North Atlantic Banks To Incur Large Loan Losses
RBA Debelle: Yet To See Full Impact Of Weak US, Europe Economies On Bank Loan Books
RBA Debelle: Downside Risks Remain In US, Europe Financial Sector
RBA Assistant Governor Debelle: Financial Market Conditions Improved Considerably

dc CB 01:16 GMT February 16, 2010
PBS does GS
Reply   
two parter from PBS NewHour last week
total @17mins

Unraveling the Profit Puzzle at Goldman Sachs

Is Taxpayer Money Behind Profits at Goldman Sachs?

Jerusalem kb 01:05 GMT February 16, 2010
reversal signal for small correction
Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.3595 Target: 1.3680 Stop: 1.3510

bought

Gen dk 00:54 GMT February 16, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 00:52 GMT February 16, 2010
RBA Expects Rates Rise But Econ Determines Pace
Reply   
Reserve Bank of Australia still has further interest-rate increases on its agenda, but it isn't going to tighten policy at every meeting--that's the message from minutes of RBA board's Feb. 2 meeting. Minutes issued today show decision to hold rates steady this month was "finely balanced," although RBA doesn't say whether there was a split vote. They also confirm that anecdotal evidence of wobbly retail sales over Christmas-New Year period plus sovereign debt worries encouraged RBA to stay on hold. But rates are still "somewhat below average," RBA says, and if economy improves as expected, further gradual rises in rates will be needed. Hikes won't be a foregone conclusion at each meeting with updates of economic data, plus any change in global events, key to policy moves. AUD/USD won't get much of a kick in either direction on back of RBA minutes, which were every much in line with what Governor Stevens has already spelled out, says ANZ FX Strategist Amber Rabinov. Pair last at 0.8878 from 0.8893 before minutes release. Says focus now on return of U.S. traders after public holiday, expects volumes to pick up again.

Lahore FM 00:44 GMT February 16, 2010
Trade Ideas

rana,usa markets and perhaps uk too were closed so of course we did not have active trading and only small moves yesterday.

Lahore FM 00:41 GMT February 16, 2010
Trade Ideas

Sell OTHER
Entry: 1104.00 Target: earlier Stop: 1120.00 rigid

sold more.

Syd 00:35 GMT February 16, 2010
*DJ RBA Minutes: Rates Likely Need To Rise If Economy Improves As Expected
Reply   
RBA Minutes: Rates Likely Need To Rise If Economy Improves As Expected
RBA: Many Advanced Economies Face Challenge Of Rising Debt
RBA: Sovereign Debt Concerns Could Result In More Cautious Behavior
RBA: Decision To Hold Allowed Time To Assess Overseas Events
RBA: Previous Rate Rises Gave Flexibility To Wait For Economic Information
RBA: Inflation Consistent With Target If Gradual Rate Rises
Assumed
RBA: Structure Of Interest Rates Somewhat Below Average
RBA: Monetary Conditions No Longer Exceptionally Accommodative
RBA Minutes: Outlook Didn't Require Rate Rise At Every Meeting
Australia RBA: January Decision To Hold Rates "Finely Balanced"
RBA Minutes: Rates Likely Need To Rise If Economy Improves As Expected
Australia Business Confidence Up 7 Pts To +15 In Jan Vs Dec -NAB

RBA: Monetary Conditions No Longer Exceptionally Accommodative
RBA Minutes: Outlook Didn't Require Rate Rise At Every Meeting
Australia RBA: January Decision To Hold Rates "Finely Balanced"
RBA Minutes: Rates Likely Need To Rise If Economy Improves As Expected

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
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Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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