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Forex Forum Archive for 03/07/2010

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Syd 23:54 GMT March 7, 2010
Stage set for revival of the yen carry trade
Reply   
Stage set for revival of the yen carry trade
For much of the past decade, the yen was the carry trade funding currency of choice.
This meant it was sold by investors because its yield was so negligible, and the proceeds were invested instead in higher-yielding assets such as emerging market currencies, equities and commodities.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f4d08928-2889-11df-a0b1-00144feabdc0.html

The carry trade explained
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f3aec6c2-b99e-11de-a747-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1

Syd 23:30 GMT March 7, 2010
DJ Aussie Jobs Major Event Risk For Bonds - NAB
Reply   
Australian employment data due Thursday is next major event risk for bond traders, with risk a stronger-than-expected number raises danger RBA are gradually slipping behind the curve, says National Australia Bank Head of Research Peter Jolly. Says if jobless rate falls more than expected, watch for a sharp repricing for RBA with dealers bringing forward expectations for next rate hike. Market expects 15,00 jobs were added in February, keeping unemploymnet steady at 5.3%. "I've said this a few times, but it bears repeating, if the unemployment rate goes below 5% the RBA knows they will have a sizeable inflation problem in a few quarters and accordingly they are a bit behind the curve."


BHP said agreement had been reached with a range of customers throughout Europe, China, India and Japan.
"These settlements reflect the company's commitment to achieving market clearing prices over time across all its bulk commodities," BHP said.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/
bhp-strikes-coking-coal-deal-20100308-pr2s.html

Forget US Stocks—Buy Gold Every Month ‘Forever’: Faber
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35707348

sofia kaprikorn 22:40 GMT March 7, 2010
DX correction
Reply   
long EUR/USD 1.3636 / SL 1.3603

sofia kaprikorn 22:19 GMT March 7, 2010
China <> YEN
Reply   
here's a nice puzzle:
-- from CFTC report posted by john:
"Long yen positions rose sharply to 32,552 contracts from 1,717 contracts a week earlier."

-- and here's FT front page news:
"China’s central bank chief laid the groundwork for an appreciation of the renminbi at the weekend when he described the current dollar peg as temporary, striking a more emollient tone after months of tough opposition in Beijing to a shift in exchange rate policy."
...

since Yen is the closest proxy to CNY is this the reason for the speculation in USD/YEN shorts and does the squeeze to 90.50 is just a squeeze or a real move and speculators are screwed in the timing?

Syd 22:18 GMT March 7, 2010
AUD To Gain On PBOC Zhou's Remarks - NAB
Reply   
Comments by People's Bank of China Governor Zhou that China will eventually move away from its current exchange-rate policies are positive for AUD, as a higher CNY will help ensure sustainable growth in China, say NAB Strategists. Higher CNY also cheapens commodity imports, and adds to case for weaker USD. "This should allow other Asian economies to appreciate their currencies against the USD and we'd expect AUD/USD to benefit as well."

London CB 21:56 GMT March 7, 2010
GPB

Buy GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Last weeks yougov UK election poll that started the cable bashing on Monday, shows the conservatives with a 2% majority. This weeks looks better.

Survey End Date CON (%) LAB (%) LDEM (%) Con Lead
YouGov 2010-02-26 37 35 17 2

And todays Sunday Times report:

YouGov 2010-03-05 38 33 17 5

So now were looking at a 5% lead for Messers Cameron and co hopefully a better week ahead for cable.

tokyo rana 21:50 GMT March 7, 2010
gbpjpy
Reply   
Sell GBPJPY
Entry: 136.8 Target: open Stop: open

any body tellme gbp trade high orlow against usd and jpy?
im thinking sale some more gbp...
any idea?

GVI Forex Blog 21:46 GMT March 7, 2010 Reply   
Friday evening was the stronger than expected US payrolls report. Equities rallied on the news (S&P500 +1.4%, US banks +2.5%), as did commodities (CRB +0.8%, oil + 1.6%, copper+1.2%) and risk currencies, although the US dollar's reaction was mixed.

Forex Research - Morning Report

Syd 21:43 GMT March 7, 2010
.
Reply   
Volcker Says Euro to Survive as Greek Budget Crisis Manageable LINK
CBO: Huge deficits to average $1 trillion per year over the next decade LINK

sofia kaprikorn 21:34 GMT March 7, 2010
China
Reply   
China to Nullify Financing Guarantees by Local Governments

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIcTfdm5rWdY&pos=2

......
now that puts the China contagion on the table as the new theme?

sofia kaprikorn 21:13 GMT March 7, 2010
Markets > Complacency?
Reply   
I posted charts of VIZ, SPX and USD Index with a brief analysis.
VIX is nearing the recent lows, SPX is remarkably trending towards 1200 and DX is 4 weeks into indecision inside the trend channel and I assume will test the 79-80 region support that translates into 1.3750-1.38 for EUR/USD.

I'd appreciate any comments! Here is he link to charts:

Markets falling towards Complacency



London CB 16:33 GMT March 7, 2010
GPB

I don't see a hung parliment, I'm one of 'Maggies children' so I remember a few recessions, and if history serves me right, whatever party were unfortunate to be 'in' at the time, got their buts kicked at the following election.

And I seem to remember that the first few opinion polls usually favour a hung parliment, as most people, hey were brits, want to give the 'in' party at least a chance to come up with something amazing, before we condemn them to the 'gallows'.

OK maybe I'm a little biased towards conservative, but in reality I don't see any other result than a conservative win and by a decent majority.

Ask yourself this? would you vote a government back in when there is record unemployment, people loosing their homes, businesses unable to get credit, doesn't matter the reason for all this, our goverments should protect the 'man in the street', and they didn't! So as the british public we've lost faith in that party and want change. It's the same story when Maggie Thatcher gave the then labour government a bloody nose at the general election, then again in the next recession when labour booted John Major out. All I might add with pretty decent seat majorities.

Fiscally in the short term, the country isn't sinking anymore, sure their are problems ahead, but their are for the USA (California debt!), Europe (Greece etc!). But as long as the world recovery holds, most things are overplayed by the media. Other than speculation their is no reason for cable to depreciate further, sure good old mervin would like it weaker, but it's level now will help uk manufacturing, and I think we'll also see the ISM services reports to look rosier in the near term.

Just my Sunday afternoon 2 pence worth.

Haifa ac 14:22 GMT March 7, 2010
for yr weekend

CB..

good video and content - tnx!//

I second that.
"there are more people in wheat derivatives than those growing wheat today"--Strong line!

GVI Forex john 14:17 GMT March 7, 2010
How to Trade with Bollinger Bands
Reply   
Discussion: Using Bollinger Bands

USE THE LINK BELOW TO REPLY ON EDUCATION FORUM. IN TIME WE PLAN TO HAVE DEVELOPED AN ARCHIVE OF TOPICS. YOUR IDEAS/REFINEMENTS WILL HELP A LOT.

How to Trade with Bollinger bands


Richland QC Mailman 12:55 GMT March 7, 2010
GPB

For as long as the threat of hung parliament exists, coupled with Greece fiscal problems, i believe we cannot trust this reversal from euro and gbp... On a technical perspective, for as long as 1.5250 caps, selling is still the preferred strategy. However, there are good buying opportunities for as long as 1.5050 holds. Either way one can profit from the cable's dancing moves.

London 12:03 GMT March 7, 2010
GPB

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The smaller U.K. opposition party of the Liberal Democrats would be open to joining the government if the upcoming election gave no party a parliamentary majority, the party's economic spokesman said Sunday.

Recent media reports had suggested the Liberal Democrats wouldn't join a Labour or Conservative-led government but would be supportive in key votes in parliament.............

London Shaun 09:55 GMT March 7, 2010
GPB
Reply   
The Sunday Times reports a new opinion poll will show the Cons with a 9% lead over Labour but still not enough to avoid an hung parliament.

 




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