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Forex Forum Archive for 03/11/2010

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HK c 23:24 GMT March 11, 2010
EURAUD
Reply   
Sell EURAUD
Entry: 1.4960 Target: 1.4700 Stop: 1.5015

Looking to re-enter this trade. May be lowering my offer in a little while.

Livingston nh 22:56 GMT March 11, 2010
DJ MARKET TALK: China Overheating Concerns May Be Overcooked - NAB

China is proposing a tightening of monetary AND fiscal policy - the currency has to drift higher above 7 because they can't push all the buttons at once // convertibility is the key and there is no way that happens yet

Lahore FM 22:41 GMT March 11, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3675 Target: 1.3440/1.3140 Stop: 1.3705

sold now.

Syd 22:18 GMT March 11, 2010
DJ MARKET TALK: China Overheating Concerns May Be Overcooked - NAB
Reply   
This week's plethora of Chinese economic reports for February left investors thinking there would need to be more policy tightening to prevent the economy from overheating. It was a sharp rise in CPI annual inflation to 2.7% from 1.5% in January that created the most concern. But John Kyriakopoulos, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank, cautions about reading too much into this as much of the acceleration in inflation was driven by seasonality and the Lunar New Year. Says after adjusting for these, China's CPI rose just 0.2% between December and February, while annual inflation averaging over January and February was only 1.7%, still well below central bank's target of 3%.

GVI Forex Blog 22:14 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   
The Canadian dollar finished higher against the greenback for a 10th straight session on Thursday as it rebounded from early losses along with other riskier assets such as equities and crude oil.

Forex Market News - CANADA FX DEBT-C$ rallies for 10th day, focus on jobs data

GVI Forex Blog 22:12 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   
The dollar traded little changed versus major currencies on Thursday after mixed data on U.S. trade and jobless claims failed to give investors direction.

FOREX NEWS-Dollar little changed vs majors in volatile trade

Syd 22:01 GMT March 11, 2010
DJ China Central Bank To Target Bubbles, Official Says -Nikkei
Reply   
BEIJING (Nikkei)--The People's Bank of China aims to forestall runaway increases in asset prices this year while supporting stable and relatively brisk economic growth, Assistant Governor Guo Qingping told The Nikkei recently in a rare reference to bubbles by a Chinese central banker, the newspaper reported in its Friday morning edition.

It suggests that the central bank will move faster to correct what has been called excessive monetary easing. Some at the bank appear to share concerns that policies encouraging bank lending have created a severe excess of liquidity that is inflating real estate prices.

Many believe that the situation is linked to China's foreign exchange interventions to keep its currency stable against the dollar. Trends in real estate and consumer prices could affect the timing of the revaluation of the renminbi.

The People's Bank of China will continue easing as appropriate in the face of the numerous economic challenges at home and abroad, Guo said in a written statement. But he added that it is necessary to increase the accuracy and flexibility of monetary policy at the same time, suggesting that the bank is ready to make adjustments based on price trends.

London 21:55 GMT March 11, 2010
Euro/gold
Reply   
closed buy positions at 9pm: euro/usd, [email protected],[email protected],gold [email protected] close1108.75 now I have sell position only, I hope euro and gold prices go down, sell: euro/[email protected] sell:gold:1102.22,

Mtl JP 21:33 GMT March 11, 2010
USD/Cad buy?

I suspect Carney and Co starting to feel greater urge to tighten than they let on: the bank, in its last statement, said that the risks to its inflation outlook were "roughly balanced" and no longer "tilted slightly to the downside".

GVI Forex john 21:18 GMT March 11, 2010
USD/Cad buy?

I take Carney at his word. The end of June is not that far away and allows the BOC to stick to its prior commitment. I see no compelling reason to hike rates at the moment.

Mtl JP 20:55 GMT March 11, 2010
USD/Cad buy?

john 20:26 - market can be cantankerous: it has 5 weeks to play and pre-empt "conditional on the outlook for inflation" Carney before his next interest rate announcement on April 20th and his new quarterly economic forecast two days after that.

Ormond beach AG 20:43 GMT March 11, 2010
USD/CAD

good point, This was a very short term trade, my target therefore is former support turn resistance at 1.0285 and SL at last oct low of 1.0192. I think this trade should survive. GL GT

GVI Forex Blog 20:38 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   
21:00 GMT- Mar 11 (global-view.com) Trading was range bound over most of the session Thursday. Data released did not have much of an impact on prices over the session. The immediate focus into the weekend will be...

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Range Trading Session

GVI Forex Jay 20:36 GMT March 11, 2010
USD/CAD

Post mortem:

As it turned out, the 200 hour mva and failure at 1.0320, and subsequent failure to hold 1.0285 led to the usd/cad reversal. See this thread (click on USD/CAD subject) for earlier posts and charts. A good lesson can be seen by looking at the charts.

GVI Forex john 20:34 GMT March 11, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support


The Daily Forex View

Range Trading Session

21:00 GMT- Mar 11 (global-view.com) Trading was range bound over most of the session Thursday. Data released did not have much of an impact on prices over the session. The immediate focus into the weekend will be... 

MORE...

GVI Forex john 20:26 GMT March 11, 2010
USD/Cad buy?

From GVI--

fwiw BOC Carney said the central bank will keep its target rate At 0.25% Through June.

Ormond beach AG 20:17 GMT March 11, 2010
USD/Cad buy?
Reply   
Buy USDCAD
Entry: 1.0232 Target: 1.0286 Stop: 1.0192

Looks like good RR here Short term. GL

Miami JN 20:04 GMT March 11, 2010
eurusd

Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.3655 Target: 1.3789 Stop: 1.3610

Lowered bid, same target.

Miami JN 20:00 GMT March 11, 2010
eurusd

Change of heart. Exited at 1.3672. I will look at lower levels to enter.

lkwd jj 19:56 GMT March 11, 2010
EURUSD

good news travels fast, bad news doesnt. sometimes it takes a day or two for mkts to adjust to reality.

Miami JN 19:53 GMT March 11, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.3671 Target: 1.3789 Stop: 1.3615

Hoping for a strong finish to the week.

GVI Forex Blog 19:38 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   
Risk markets took a breather last night. US equities fell at the open, but then rebounded, as they digested the earlier China inflation report which raised the prospect of tightening there, as well as the US trade report showing imports fell.

Forex Research - Morning Report

GVI Forex Blog 19:38 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   
Risk markets took a breather last night. US equities fell at the open, but then rebounded, as they digested the earlier China inflation report which raised the prospect of tightening there, as well as the US trade report showing imports fell.

Forex Research - Morning Report

nyc ws 19:34 GMT March 11, 2010
EURUSD

Greece is a played out event that might rear its ugly head again but for now the fear of default has passed. This has eased selling pressure on the euro from Greece. Look at the protests today. Market paid no attention. This tells you how little a factor it is at this time. Now the market is looking for a new theme to trade.

NYC RL 19:30 GMT March 11, 2010
EURUSD

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

I can't understand why EUR is so strong today with Greece literally falling apart..

Kiev Nemo 19:16 GMT March 11, 2010
EUR/JPY

Same. TP open

ABHA fxs 19:10 GMT March 11, 2010
EUR/JPY
Reply   
Sell EURJPY
Entry: 123.78 Target: 120.40 Stop: 124.08

happy trad

GVI Forex Blog 19:03 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   
Before discussing the short-term scenario let’s take a look at the longer term mode. The Weekly chart shows a market in the oversold condition as it consolidates around the 61.8% retracement level…

FXTimes: Daily Technical Update EUR/JPY Short-term Reversal Signals

GVI Forex Blog 18:56 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   
The USD/CAD is showing signs of reversal after a strong bullish candle coming out of bottoming price action above the 1.0220 area.

FXTimes: Daily Technical Update USD/CAD Reversal Signal

dc CB 18:33 GMT March 11, 2010
Citigroup

When in Rome...

11:45 C Citigroup: Dick Bove says that C could double to $8.50-- Bloomberg

PAR 18:25 GMT March 11, 2010
Citigroup
Reply   
Thank goodness for the government controlled stocks. Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM), Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE), American International group (NYSE:AIG), and Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) are just a few. If we did not have these stocks trading the volume in the market would be even lighter. Where are the participants? Last year at this time the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) was trading nearly a half billion shares a day and one year later it is averaging just 150 million a day. Last year the market was in the eye of the storm and volume was at unprecedented levels. However, it is now at unprecedented light levels.

It's a good thing that Citigroup (NYSE:C) has traded over a billion shares a day lately or this market would almost be non existent in trading volume. As long as the volume is light it is easy for the institutional money to keep this market up. Hence the old market adage, "never short a dull market." This is a dull market especially for the month of March.

Wall Street 18:18 GMT March 11, 2010
EURUSD

Yes strong 30-yr auction.

LDN rf 18:15 GMT March 11, 2010
EURUSD

EURUSD taking off again?

tokyo rana 18:14 GMT March 11, 2010
Into the Weekend

thanx for reply...
its depend on usdjpy pair...
if usd ok ithink no problem....
japan export depends on usd.....
dollar is getting better so ithink ok....
but if they do anything it will be for time being like they didi nov 2009 when usd came to 84level....
ithink no need to worry about BOJ....
BOJ news is just for business purpose forex companies want make money so use such news forex companies want buy and they donot want peoples short bcoz peoples get profit.....
im sorry i could not explain well bcoz of my english capacity.
best regards,

PAR 18:09 GMT March 11, 2010
Citigroup
Reply   
By MIRNA SLEIMAN
DUBAI—The deadline is looming next week for Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the Middle East's largest sovereign-wealth fund, to begin converting $7.5 billion of bonds in Citigroup Inc.

Citi agreed in November 2007 to sell $7.5 billion of equity units to the fund, or ADIA, at prices ranging from $31.83 to $37.24 a share. But ADIA said in mid-December last year that it is demanding that Citi scrap the deal that would see it take a heavy loss due to the fall in the bank's value.

Citigroup closed Wednesday in New York at $3.86, and recently traded around $4.

The fund, controlled by the oil-rich rulers of the Persian Gulf city-state of Abu Dhabi, is seeking more than $4 billion in damages from Citi if the deal to invest in the bank is upheld for what it alleges were "fraudulent misrepresentations" of the original agreement, Citi said in a statement last year.

A spokesmen for ADIA declined to comment on whether the fund will honor the terms of the original agreement when called by Zawya Dow Jones. Citi also declined to comment.

According to a memo seen by Zawya Dow Jones, the first settlement falls due on March 15, after which a share of total units will be converted every six months until Sept. 12, 2011. Each settlement date is subject to an extension of up to one year, the memo show

Chicago sc 18:08 GMT March 11, 2010
Into the Weekend

rana- thanks for your reply. Its very useful to have someone local comment on these issues. Its my opinion that the BOJ is under enormous political pressure to combat deflation. I frankly don't know what they can do about it, but would be very surprised if they don't announce something.

All the best

Wall Street 18:03 GMT March 11, 2010
EURUSD

...there has NOT been...

Wall Street 18:00 GMT March 11, 2010
EURUSD

Notable that there has been any change in EURUSD neutrality now 1.3657 vs. 1.3655 four hours ago. Volatility range +/- 30 pips was dead on. Implied range 1.3625 to 1.3685 (actual has been 1.3435 to 1.3684).

tokyo rana 17:51 GMT March 11, 2010
Into the Weekend

i am not agree with you...
BOJ is just news they are not going to do anything.....
usdjpy recoverd now is ok japan govt only care usd$.....
yen is not going get weak any time soon....
yen is going to be higher....
yen is getting more papular....
traders love yen..
best regards,

PAR 17:47 GMT March 11, 2010
Citigroup
Reply   
Citigroup all of a sudden the most profitable bank of the world ? Us banks look like internet stocks in 1999 .

Chicago sc 17:45 GMT March 11, 2010
Into the Weekend
Reply   
Looking at the G-V calendar, I see a weak Japanese industrial output figure tonight could influence trade into the BOJ meeting next Wednesday. The other item I am focused on is U.S. retail sales data. From what Ive been seeing, the impact of the snows have been over-played. They only hit a few areas hard from what I can tell. I bet they are better than feared.

tokyo rana 17:41 GMT March 11, 2010
Trade Ideas

hello brother,
your not agree with me?
regards,

tokyo rana 17:39 GMT March 11, 2010
Euro/usd 1.3636-13674

ithink buy ok eurusd 1and half hour later big news coming...
or buy gbpusd both pair ithink go up...
best regards,

Lahore FM 17:36 GMT March 11, 2010
Trade Ideas

Buy EURAUD
Entry: 1.4966 Target: 1.5180 Stop: 1.4870

went long.

London 17:36 GMT March 11, 2010
Euro/usd 1.3636-13674

Thank you for your reply, If broker is not trading against me why, most of the time,would the price freeze and change direction every time i take a position. If you can send me feed back I would appreciate thank you.

tokyo rana 17:33 GMT March 11, 2010
Euro/usd 1.3636-13674

maybe your changing chots thats why.....
just wait and think more....
its happen some time.....
just relax mind free...
sell at high buy at low...
what wrong?
im waiting for gbpjpy for 3days iwill short above 137 to 139....
just wait...
but honestly when ur not in good frame of mind its easy to lose money in forex...
this is gamble buy down sale up....
better go with markeet not ur bias...
im sorry my poor english..
i try my best for explain you...
these 3 things important
1. Knowledge
2. Experience
3. Suitable mental and psychological condition
be enough patience....
every day gain difficult...
but everyday lose also difficult...
learn from ur misstakes...

best regards

lkwd jj 17:31 GMT March 11, 2010
pivots
Reply   
mkts lethargic today and are not moving from pivot to s1 or r1 in any hurry. looks like maybe chinese(rate hike) on the menu during ny lunch.

Mysore 4xveda 17:30 GMT March 11, 2010
Euro/usd 1.3636-13674

I have heard this from many forex traders. This happens to every trader who buys high and sells low, especially in a sideways market.

GVI Forex Jay 17:19 GMT March 11, 2010
Euro/usd 1.3636-13674

London. It is not the broker taking your money but seems like other trading issues. You can ask for feedback here anytime or contact us for help.

London 17:10 GMT March 11, 2010
Euro/usd 1.3636-13674
Reply   
EURUSD
Entry: 1.3674 Target: Stop:

10/03/10 4.04pm GMT, [email protected]
6.53pm GMT [email protected] 1.3636 the price is stuck between 1.3636 and 1.3674 more or less since yesterday, strange market, the market is trading against me, if I buy it goes down, if I sell it goes up. It's the same for Gold and other commodities, everything is linked, and the market/broker want to take our money...

Mtl JP 17:04 GMT March 11, 2010
usd/cad - Bear & Congestion Fatigue?

re "what a garbage thing"...
market is a fantastic opponent & player, ain' t it ?

tokyo rana 17:00 GMT March 11, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Buy GBPJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

hello,how are you?
thanx kind info...
what is your view about gbpjpy?
iwill short above 137 to139...
will it gbpjpy make 124.7 any time soon?
kind regards,

Richland QC Mailman 16:58 GMT March 11, 2010
usd/cad - Bear & Congestion Fatigue?

took minimal profits. but erected new longs ahead of 1.0260... very frustrating for this pair. what a garbage thing.

Hong Kong Qindex 16:56 GMT March 11, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Sell EURJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/JPY : As shown in the monthly cycle charts the current expected trading range is 115.97 and 124.30. The mid-point reference of 115.97 and 124.30 is 120.14. The odds are in favor of taking a short position when the market is below 124.02.


EUR/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts
http://www.qindex.com/eur-yen.html

London ET 16:51 GMT March 11, 2010
Out of Ideas

Tank you As. Good luck on your trades.

GVI Forex Blog 16:50 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   
Plenty of data and comments kept the price action choppy during the New York morning, although the greenback has maintained its mildly softer tone against the European pairs.

Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

London 16:49 GMT March 11, 2010
Gold stuck between 1101-1107
Reply   
Buy Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

11/03/10 gold buy1106 (3.56pm GMT) sell 1102 (2.48pm GMT), there is a fake market, the price goes up and down but doesn't go below 1102 or above 1107, most of the time there is no market it's only the forex program chasing our positions. We use the metatrader4, it is programmed to take your money...or is it my broker.

Los Angeles Bernie 16:45 GMT March 11, 2010
Equities
Reply   
five minutes ago:

FIRE 25.03 -.61
Sourcefire Inc.


CLINE 21.38 +2.06
Clean Energy Fuel Corps


frustrating, just like FX.

Belgrade AS 16:44 GMT March 11, 2010
Out of Ideas

last time i checked correlation was around 40%..sometimes there's no correlation at all.
yesterday i was asked to elaborate on risk aversion and i made 4-or 5 points in that sence...please,lease check archives if you are intrested
i'm not allin(poker slung)..my positions are:
-cable: 3 standard size shorts from 1,57 area with risk covered @1,5950...plus 4600/700 pips cumulative profit already booked"(check "gbpusd diamond top" thread i started in early February)
-2 standard size shorts from 0,7000(early february)-risk covered @0,7250("sell nzdusd-long term" thread)
2 pairs of shorts in nzdusd since yesterday from 0,7060)-risk yet to be covered!
-usdcad longs form all over the place in 1,02xx(last and this week)-risk yet to be covered!
my plan is to add more shorts in eurusd and gbpusd...still making plans!
note:standard size trade unit=1% of standard size equity! (my actual equity is twice as big as "standard size"...due to good trading since last August!)
cheers

London ET 16:26 GMT March 11, 2010
Out of Ideas

Given the correlation between risk and equities, how you can be all in on risk aversion without having a view on equities. imho

Belgrade AS 16:22 GMT March 11, 2010
Out of Ideas

wouldn't know much about their future movements...just reading on them and trying to use those movemets to my best adventage here (FX)

London ET 16:12 GMT March 11, 2010
Out of Ideas

AS I noticed you are positioned for risk aversion. Are you also looking for lower equities?

Belgrade AS 16:06 GMT March 11, 2010
Out of Ideas

Chicago,NYC// you guys think DOW has strength to push up...at least one more time?
need better levels to sell "risk sensitive",you know?

GVI Forex Blog 16:05 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   
Mar 11 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: On Friday, the Far East sees Japanese Industrial Output. In Europe, Eurozone industrial Production is due. In North America, Canadian employment is due. The U.S. releases Retail Sales, the University of Michigan survey and Business Inventories.

GVI Forex- Data Outlook for March 12, 2010

NYC ET 16:00 GMT March 11, 2010
Out of Ideas

Equities recovering to flat on the day from early losses is behind some of the forex moves in past hour.

GVI Forex john 15:59 GMT March 11, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Mar 11 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: On Friday, the Far East sees Japanese Industrial Output. In Europe, Eurozone industrial Production is due. In North America, Canadian employment is due. The U.S. releases Retail Sales, the University of Michigan survey and Business Inventories.

 

 

FRIDAY

 

 

4:30

JA

Janr Ind Out

n/a

2.50%

10:00

EZ

Jan Ind Prod mm

0.70%

-1.70%

10:00

EZ

Jan Ind Prod yy

-1.90%

-5.00%

12:00

CA

FebEmployment k

20

43

12:00

CA

FebRate

8.30%

8.30%

13:30

US

Feb Retail Sls

0.20%

0.50%

13:30

US

Feb R/S x-auto

0.20%

0.60%

14:55

US

Marp U Mich Sent

73.8

74.4

15:00

US

Jan Bus Inv

0.20%

0.40%

Chicago sc 15:56 GMT March 11, 2010
Out of Ideas
Reply   
When the market runs out of ideas it can always track equities again.

GVI Forex Blog 15:31 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   
Greece quieting down? UK inflation outlook higher SNB keeps steady rates BoJ likely to ease further

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (11 March 2010)

GVI Forex Blog 15:30 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   
Regardless of today’s reaction – up or down – of the Canadian dollar, it’s likely to be a big reaction.

Targeting the Canadian Dollar Today

Belgrade AS 15:09 GMT March 11, 2010
usd/cad - Bear & Congestion Fatigue?

Mailman,if you attacked with multi-units,it would be smart to cover your risk with some partial profit taking near 1,03... make things that way so you have nothing to lose!

Belgrade AS 15:04 GMT March 11, 2010
usd/cad - Bear & Congestion Fatigue?

Mailman,my usdcad is so uncharted it hurts.this is THE first time i decided to play long usd against any other "commodity driven" then NZD....wouldnt touch audusd
with DOW spilling(braking support) and oil following i'm not really in a rush to get all smart now(in regards to exit strategies)...anyhow,1,08 area seems right
remember,we are still not "out of the woods"!

GVI Forex Blog 15:01 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   

Stocks Coming Back after China Break

GVI Forex Blog 14:59 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   

China Tightening Fears Pressure Higher-Yielding Currencies

GVI Forex Blog 14:59 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   
Recent bearish price action on spot gold, a daily chart of which is shown, has prompted a correction back down to the long-term uptrend support line. This bearish correction occurs right after price

Chart of the Day - 3/11/2010 – GOLD

GVI Forex Jay 14:52 GMT March 11, 2010
USD/CAD



Note 5 minute chart

Mtl JP 14:51 GMT March 11, 2010
USD/CAD

Jay 14:18 knowing when to take pips off table to keep dome warm in this whippy environment: nice call in usdcad 1.0285, great t/p level as well.

Richland QC Mailman 14:49 GMT March 11, 2010
usd/cad - Bear & Congestion Fatigue?

thanks gingko.

tokyo ginko 14:48 GMT March 11, 2010
usd/cad - Bear & Congestion Fatigue?

usd/cad target 1.0880/90

Richland QC Mailman 14:47 GMT March 11, 2010
usd/cad - Bear & Congestion Fatigue?

Let us see if usd/cad break is for real. 1.0325 SHOULD BE TAKEN OUT at all COST and price needs to close at least above it for stronger bullish momentum.

Still holding multiple possies from 1.0260... AS, ZEUS your target please. thanks

tokyo ginko 14:32 GMT March 11, 2010
USD/JPY target revised down 92.20/40

Original target was 92.40/50 (please see below, thank you)

"tokyo ginko 07:42 GMT March 9, 2010
1 week target : Reply
Buy USDJPY
Entry: 89.98 Target: 92.40 Stop: stops manual

GT all

Target 92.40/50 by next Monday. GT all"

Wall Street 14:25 GMT March 11, 2010
EURUSD
Reply   
Short-term neutrality in the EURUSD now 1.3655 using volatility range of +/-30 pips which should be quite tradeable.

GVI Forex Jay 14:22 GMT March 11, 2010
USD/CAD

Also from GVI Forex:

GVI Forex Jay 14:18 GMT March 11, 2010
USD/CAD: Reply
1.0320 (March 9 high), around the 200 hour mva, is also a minor key resistance - bounced off it. On the other side, 1.0291 was yesterday's high so potential support. Intra-day charts show support at 1.0285.

Belgrade AS 14:21 GMT March 11, 2010
USDCAD,NZDUSD

if somebody followed me yesterday in nzdusd,its only fair to note 200day is just fine to take partial profit.
i'm holding mine-long term
cheers

GVI Forex john 14:17 GMT March 11, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Data Call @ 15:30 GMT
Weekly Natural Gas Inventories


Weekly estimates of working gas volumes in underground natural gas storage facilities from the Energy Information Administration, US Dept. of Energy.

Belgrade AS 14:09 GMT March 11, 2010
usd/cad - Bear & Congestion Fatigue?

whoooo-hoooooo!!!!!
what was your unit's size Zeus????...look what you've done,man!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ApXvYPE5qAI

GVI Forex Jay 14:06 GMT March 11, 2010
USD/CAD
Reply   


As posted on GVI Forex

GVI Forex Jay 14:03 GMT March 11, 2010
USD/CAD: Reply

Testing 200 hour mva - see chart

nyc ws 13:52 GMT March 11, 2010
news

London, more of the same

Hesham Cairo 13:51 GMT March 11, 2010
trendline support

To Sophia: Never mind

GVI Forex john 13:49 GMT March 11, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support



Trade deficit smaller due to falling imports...

PAR 13:49 GMT March 11, 2010
Trade Deficit - Crude Oil
Reply   
WASHINGTON, March 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly in January as oil imports fell to their lowest since February 1999, a government report showed on Thursday.

Global Markets

The trade gap shrank 6.6 percent to $37.3 billion, the Commerce Department said. U.S. exports declined, but not as much as the oil-led drop in imports.

Analysts had expected the deficit to widen to $41.0 billion from $39.9 billion in December, which was revised down from a previously reported $40.2 billion.

Average prices for imported oil hit $73.89 per barrel, the highest since October 2008, while the quantity of imported crude oil fell to an 11-year low.

(Reporting by Doug Palmer; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

London Chris 13:47 GMT March 11, 2010
news
Reply   
Has some news come out or just more of the same?

GVI Forex john 13:45 GMT March 11, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Weekly Jobless in line...



Click on chart for seven-year history

sofia kaprikorn 13:45 GMT March 11, 2010
trendline support

pls all excuse my embarrassment here this week!
taking a break.

tokyo rana 13:43 GMT March 11, 2010
trendline support

ithink watch this again video 10 to 1000times,
your trade always so difficult and coomlicated for to much technical...
ithink you did not learn from this video anything even you you put here this video..
best regards,
http://video.yahoo.com/watch/5377584/14168832

sofia kaprikorn 13:39 GMT March 11, 2010
trendline support

oh well my bad again...
the initial sell will give way to the correct direction right?..very good

Hesham Cairo 13:39 GMT March 11, 2010
trendline support

U can stop trading till u get a clear image of the market. That is my opinion

Belgrade AS 13:37 GMT March 11, 2010
EURUSD 10day and 20day

no discussion Jay...just needed 10day and 20day in real time(based on american midnights-daily close)from anyone of american friends....remember? yesterday's data you offered me with has no value to me.thank you for your efforts,anyway.

sofia kaprikorn 13:36 GMT March 11, 2010
trendline support

jobless data didn't push the USD selling and I didn't like how every tick in aud/usd was sold down...

taking back again the original short at 0.9155..

I don't know but it has been particularly hard this week being caught in some very tight ranges no break and usually on the wrong side - that consumed all the equity..

tokyo rana 13:31 GMT March 11, 2010
Trade Ideas

very well done...
your great.....
everyting down...
best regards,

Lahore FM 13:27 GMT March 11, 2010
Trade Ideas

Sell OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:

looks like an important day for stox.on dow my bet is for downside.

LA BV 13:26 GMT March 11, 2010
eurusd

1.3670 sell order got within 2 pips but not executed. Cancelling it and will look anew later.

sofia kaprikorn 13:21 GMT March 11, 2010
trendline support

with respect ot the chart analysis I mad on the AUD/USD I long here at 0.9161 with target at 0.9250
stop as noted should be around 0.9130

GVI Forex 13:20 GMT March 11, 2010
Economic Countdown Clock
Reply   
Click on the small rotating blue circle in our Economic Countdown Clock above Post a message to see next data releases. This is the one feature on our site that has to be done manually. Alternatively, you can refresh this page to get the same result.

GVI Forex futures 13:19 GMT March 11, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Total Open Interest in the EURO FX futures fell to 159,145 contracts Wednesday, down another 13,468. As noted, this is more an indication of the March contract maturity than changing sentiment.

Richland QC Mailman 13:17 GMT March 11, 2010
usd/cad - Bear & Congestion Fatigue?

Welcome aboard mighty Zeus. With AS, I think we are now 3 on board the goose's private plane... Expecting more passengers to join before the ticket booking offices close.

USA ZEUS 13:08 GMT March 11, 2010
USD/CAD
Reply   
Long USD/CAD @ 1.0272 for a ride.

Richland QC Mailman 13:03 GMT March 11, 2010
EURCHF

i mean usd/chf before the rate decision.

GVI Forex john 13:03 GMT March 11, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

SNB policy unchanged will counter excessive CHF rise vs. EUR decisively.

Richland QC Mailman 13:00 GMT March 11, 2010
EURCHF

opened up some new longs here now.

GVI Forex Jay 12:59 GMT March 11, 2010
EURUSD 10day and 20day

AS, feel free to contact me if you want to discuss this further. Market needs a closing time and start of the new day. NY session close ends the 24 hour trading day and starts a new one. with Aussie and NZ open.

GVI Forex john 12:55 GMT March 11, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Data Call @ 13:30 GMT
Canada and U.S. Merchandise Trade


Broad Definition: Merchandise trade is trade in goods only, not services, and excludes capital transfers and foreign investments. Exports are total exports; they include both domestically-produced goods and re-exports, which constitute imports of goods which are warehoused here, then re-exported. Imports are general imports, which measure total arrivals of goods. The. Balance of trade is defined as total exports minus general imports.

IMPACT: Trade figures used to be viewed as the most important statistic for the forex market. It goes to proper valuation of the exchange rate, but can also reflect relative demand for goods. A trade deficit is a net deduction from GDP, while a surplus is an addition.

GVI Forex john 12:51 GMT March 11, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Data Call @ 13:30 GMT
Weekly jobless data


Weekly jobless data are the most current read on employment and also the economy.

Initial Jobless claims can be very volatile so many also watch the 4-week moving average to get a better handle on trends.

Continuing claims are used by economists to predict the unemployment rate. These data are not as consistent as they once were as statutory benefit rules have been changing. Changes in the rules can affect the number of individuals eligible for claims.

Updated and revised charts to follow after the report.

GVI Forex john 12:48 GMT March 11, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Data Call @ 13:00 GMT
Swiss National Bank Policy Decision


Often a major events for forex and other financial markets. After all, forex price swings boil down to money flows. Through their money market activities, Central Banks set the “cost of money” (interest rates). Most target a short-term interest rate. Virtually all central banks, explicitly (or implicitly) target inflation in the medium term, so many traders track price trends closely as an indicator of policy. Central Bank watchers also usually dig deep into central bank policy statements for clues about future policy decisions.

Belgrade AS 12:46 GMT March 11, 2010
EURUSD 10day and 20day

ok Jay.never mind...you refuse to understand that 2-3 hours after NY close a NEW TRADING DAY STARTS!!! ...new averages start running....NY close data becomes yesterday once asians start...understand?
comicly enough,during those 2-3 hours after NY close NO OFFICE IS OPEN on the whole planet!!!!
don't take it peronally,but "NY close" is good for only 2-3 hours.....unfortunatly it's good for nobody BECAUSE NOBODY WORKS THEN!!!!
what good is 22nd century weapon if you shoot yourself with it???????

GVI Forex Blog 12:42 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   
Swiss has dipped below 1.0700 and may test the strong Support...

FX Thoughts for the day : 11-Mar-2010 - 1237 GMT

London ex 12:38 GMT March 11, 2010
$/yen
Reply   
Buy USDJPY
Entry: 90.20 Target: 92.00 Stop: 89.80

Still like USDJPY from the long side. Expect BOJ meeting next Wednesday will be the most important meeting in a long while. Bank is under INTENSE political pressure to combat deflation. Expect new quantitative ease initiatives. I'm flexible on my entry level because still bucking year-end flows.

sofia kaprikorn 12:30 GMT March 11, 2010
trendline support



AUD/USD - the daily view shows however other signals that call for attention with scope of the 0.9250 target of this Expanding Triangle formation..

The current rise from 0.8600 bottom to 0.9060 (approximately 450 pips) is the first leg of A-B-C pattern and the next leg of the same length from the higher low at 0.88 shows projected top at 0.9250-60 - where exactly the the Triangle pattern points.

Geneva ej 12:25 GMT March 11, 2010
EURCHF

Squared up my long EURCHF at a 10 pip loss. I have no idea whats going to happen today and there's a chance the SNB will lower its intervention. r/r does not compute.

Gen dk 12:23 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

tokyo rana 12:21 GMT March 11, 2010
long still hold!
Reply   
Buy GBPJPY
Entry: 134.200 Target: 137 to 139.200 Stop: 133.700

i said gbpjpy not go down with my short....
gbpjpy want more shorts....
happy trade good luck...
long still hold.......................
best regards,

GVI Forex Jay 12:19 GMT March 11, 2010
EURUSD 10day and 20day

AS, the databse is updated at the NY close each day.

GVI Forex Jay 12:14 GMT March 11, 2010
EUR/CHF
Reply   


As posted on GVI Forex

EUR/CHF has traded within 1.46-1.47 for 21 days in a row in a slow erosion and very tight daily ranges as it sldies towards the lower end. Charts show the Feb 6 low at 1.4563 as key support with 1.4580 potentially acting as a SNB defense line ahead of it.

I have no clue what the SNB is thinking as it seems more of a smoothing action as opposed to aggressive intervention prior to 1.50 giving way. Perhaps 1.45-1.46 becomes the new area of defense if 1.46 gives way? Major support is at the Oct 27, 2008 low at 1.4300, with no real support below 1.4563 and the pivotal big figure 1.45. This sugegsts SNB will need to defend 1.45 to prevent a black hole until 1.43.

I read today market may be short expecting the SNB to water down its intervention talk (note SNB rate decision due at 13:00 GMT). If true, we can't rule out a SNB attack but recent reactions to intervention suggests those betting on this event will have offers lying in wait.

Belgrade AS 12:12 GMT March 11, 2010
EURUSD 10day and 20day

thanks Jay.your yesterday's 20.00h GMT values correlate(more or less) with what i had at 8.00 PM last night...could you check your platform for TODAY'S values,please....those things move around with each new day,you know?
at least i know you are awake,lol.
thanks

sofia kaprikorn 12:10 GMT March 11, 2010
trendline support



here's an interesting pattern

T/L support and 21-MA project support around 0.9130
then other significant chart points are around 0.9060-70..

upside on a break of the consolidation channel - it's an uptrend anyway and can't say it bends now until a confirmed lower high..

Syd 12:09 GMT March 11, 2010
If interest rates rise, our prospects plummet
Reply   
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/
columnists/anatole_kaletsky/article7057327.ece

Richland QC Mailman 12:03 GMT March 11, 2010
usd/cad - Bear & Congestion Fatigue?

We have had 10 straight red candle/bear days. Isn't it too much for an 11th day? Some signals are already blinking...

GVI Forex Jay 11:56 GMT March 11, 2010
EURUSD 10day and 20day

AS, as w ehave mentioned before, we have one of the most complete and up-to-date fx databases you will find anywhere. From the database, we publish an extensive Chart Points table where you can find indicators you are looking for and more. Currently, 10 day mva = 1.3611 and 20 day = 1.3610. I suggest taking a look:

FX Chart Points

Mtl JP 11:56 GMT March 11, 2010
Us Trade Deficit - Protectionism

PAR what a combination: Boeing - military aircraft and missile maker & gov't Export Promotion Cabinet ... time to buy more Boeing stock.

GVI Forex Blog 11:52 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   
The euro steadied against the dollar and the yen in quiet trade on Thursday, recovering from earlier falls after strong Chinese data fuelled expectations of possible further monetary tightening by Beijing.

FOREX NEWS-Euro steadies vs dollar, yen; SNB awaited

Belgrade AS 11:49 GMT March 11, 2010
EURUSD 10day and 20day
Reply   


if any american friend is awake i need a little help!
my daily chart based on my local time midnights(daily close) shows 10daySMA=1,3622 and 20daySMA=1,3603!
so since i woke up(5-6 hours ago) i'm thinking to myself 10 and 20 day SMAs are serving as support....which is true so far.
some 10-15 minutes ago i saw on an american site "10daySMA=1,3658 and is serving as resistance"...could we doublecheck this...could be a typpo,right?
i zoomed in my eurusd-daily so you see what i'm talking about
tia

Richland QC Mailman 11:46 GMT March 11, 2010
usd/cad - Bear & Congestion Fatigue?

Go, go, go loonie cutie. May the goose sail smoothly as it goes out of its river onto the new blue sea. hihihi

Seriously though, a daily close above 1.0300 will reinforce our long positions. This has long been overdue.

PAR 11:09 GMT March 11, 2010
Us Trade Deficit - Protectionism
Reply   
A White House official said Obama would name Boeing Co president and chief executive Jim McNerney and Xerox Co chief executive Ursula Burns to lead the President's Export Council.

Founded in 1973 by former President Richard Nixon, the council is a key forum for the private sector to communicate its trade views to the U.S. administration.

Obama will also create a new Export Promotion Cabinet, drawn from government departments including Treasury, State, Commerce and Agriculture in support of his efforts, the White House said.

Trade is a central part of Obama's drive of shift Americans away from an over-reliance on borrowing and consumption, replacing those sources of economic activity with investment and greater exports to the rest of the world.

Exports could help the United States recover from the worst recession in 50 years, caused by the collapse of the country's housing market, and unemployment at a towering 9.7 percent.

But critics say Obama has not backed up his words with action to advance free trade agreements with Panama, Colombia, and South Korea, and they are skeptical that his top-down initiatives to lift exports will deliver results.

GVI Forex Blog 11:08 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   
Currencies: The USD was mildly softer in a subdued European morning. Russia shifted its floating ruble band by another 5 kopecks to 34.30, which is its 14th move since mid-February and dealers noting that this was fueling euro currency demand.

European Market Update: Russian Central bank continues to adjust the Ruble basket trading band

sofia kaprikorn 11:06 GMT March 11, 2010
trendline support

hourly pattern shows no follow through..

taking back my original short position at 0.9160.

Belgrade AS 10:57 GMT March 11, 2010
usd/cad - Bear & Congestion Fatigue?

hi Mailman.like your play.stops below 1,0245 support...i'm 100% sure that,later today,canadian jobs data will help you with 1,0270 minor resistance....nice tp,also!
if you're intrested in levels above 1,0325,i think you have to keep one eye on oil braking support and the other one on gold
good luck!

GVI Forex john 10:53 GMT March 11, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

From GVI...

GVI Forex john 10:52 GMT March 11, 2010
Headlines and Discussion: Reply
HSBC Head of Forex Strategy David Bloom on CNBC saying EURCHF will break 1.4600 today after SNB boosts growth and inflation targets today. He asks how can they intervene to stop it?

GVI Forex Blog 10:45 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   
11:00 GMT- Mar 11 (global-view.com) Trading seems to have gotten off to a cautious start Thursday heading into North American trading hours. A key question for day-traders may be whether the EURUSD can...

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Steady Trade into Data

GVI Forex john 10:42 GMT March 11, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support


The Daily Forex View

Steady Trade into Data

11:00 GMT- Mar 11 (global-view.com) Trading seems to have gotten off to a cautious start Thursday heading into North American trading hours. A key question for day-traders may be whether the EURUSD can...

MORE...

Juffair KaL 10:39 GMT March 11, 2010
cable shorts

audjpy
Longs
83.5074 82.7922
83.5968 82.7028
83.6862 82.6134
83.8650 82.4347
84.0438 82.2559

Juffair KaL 10:37 GMT March 11, 2010
cable shorts

eurgbp Longs
0.9142 0.9100
0.9148 0.9094
0.9153 0.9089
0.9164 0.9078
0.9174 0.9068

Juffair KaL 10:32 GMT March 11, 2010
cable shorts

audusd
not bad long
0.9184 0.9149
0.9188 0.9145
0.9193 0.9141
0.9202 0.9132
0.9210 0.9123

GVI Forex Blog 10:32 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   
Traders of the US anticipate the publication of the Retail Sales.

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 11/03/2010

Amman wfakhoury 10:31 GMT March 11, 2010
gbpusd14960
Reply   
Montréal Taro 07:40 GMT March 11, 2010
gbpusd 14960: Reply
wfakhoury

Does 1.4960 still the determination level for trend ?
-------yes Taro..and target 15100.

Richland QC Mailman 10:29 GMT March 11, 2010
cable shorts

Yup I am short too 1.5022.

London M 10:29 GMT March 11, 2010
USD/JPY target revised down 92.20/40

Hi Ginko

you just wrote that usdyen target down to 92.20/40.

would you tell me what was your original usd/yen target?

Unless the Greek/Euro situation improves, there is more risk for yen to get stronger, however, once it settles, I expect that Yen will become the carry-funding currency. The problem is that we do not know when it happens as the euro problems seem to last longer than I expected.

tia

Gen dk 10:29 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Juffair KaL 10:28 GMT March 11, 2010
cable shorts

usdcad shorts
1.0255 1.0240
1.0257 1.0238
1.0259 1.0236
1.0263 1.0232
1.0267 1.0228

London Misha 10:27 GMT March 11, 2010
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - Possible Bullish Engulfing Pattern on the Daily Chart. Dead Cross of the Medium MA down through the Long MA!
USDJPY - Bullish Engulfing Pattern on the Daily Chart!
GBPUSD - Possible Dragonfly Doji on the Daily Chart!
USDCHF - Possible Bearish Engulfing Pattern on the Daily Chart.
EURGBP - Three White Soldiers on the Daily Chart.
EURJPY - Possible Bullish Engulfing Pattern on the Daily Chart.
USDCAD - Doji, possibly a reversal back on the chart.
AUDUSD - Possible Shooting Star/Gravestone Doji on the Daily Chart. Golden Cross of the Short MA up through the Short/Medium MA!
NZDUSD - Third close over the Long MA! Possible Gravestone Doji on the Daily Chart.

Juffair KaL 10:24 GMT March 11, 2010
cable shorts
Reply   
cable shorts
starting
1.5023 1.4883
1.5040 1.4866
1.5058 1.4849
1.5092 1.4814
1.5127 1.4779

PAR 10:16 GMT March 11, 2010
US Twin Deficits
Reply   
Budget Deficit

WASHINGTON—Even as government receipts posted a rare increase in February, soaring outlays pushed the country's year-to-date deficit up to a record $651.60 billion.

The government's fiscal 2010 year-to-date deficit is up 10.5% from fiscal year 2009.

The government in February alone ran its largest ever monthly deficit—$221 billion, the U.S. Treasury said in releasing its monthly budget statement Wednesday. The government in February 2009 ran a budget deficit of nearly $194 billion.


Trade Deficit

By Shobhana Chandra

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit probably widened in January for a third month as imports grew faster than exports, pointing to a rebound in global economic growth, economists said before a report today.

tokyo ginko 10:16 GMT March 11, 2010
USD/JPY target revised down 92.20/40
Reply   
GT all

Richland QC Mailman 10:02 GMT March 11, 2010
usd/cad - Bear & Congestion Fatigue?
Reply   
Buy USDCAD
Entry: 1.0260 Target: 1.0325/1.0400 Stop: 1.0238

Fired longs anew on speculation that the pair is already in the process of coming out of this bearish congestion.

HK [email protected] 09:44 GMT March 11, 2010
AUS/USD pullback?
Reply   
AUS/USD pullback, may occur within the next 100 pips from here, but seems not below 0.92

sheikhupura pakistan 09:42 GMT March 11, 2010
view on eurusd

Buy
Entry: 3650 Target: 3690 Stop: 3540

hi,
sofia it is not reply infect i am new trader just start trading i require some support could u please inform me how can i catch up u well my email is [email protected]

sofia kaprikorn 09:35 GMT March 11, 2010
trendline support

reversed to long aud/usd 0.9166

sofia kaprikorn 08:54 GMT March 11, 2010
view on eurusd

J.B. - I wonder do you you think this is a skill by birth or can be learned? I know the turtle experiment has shown it can be taught but since I have been trading and trying to develop myself into jumping 95 > 5% for the last 2-3 years and still making mistakes I'd just appreciate a contrarian view on this..

U.K. J.B. 08:41 GMT March 11, 2010
view on eurusd

Oh yes please but i must point out i am a contrarian trader so i will take the opposite view. If 95 % of people that trade Forex markets lose money surely this has to be the right strategy.

MUMBAI PRIYARANJAN 08:36 GMT March 11, 2010
view on eurusd
Reply   
would like to know the view of eurusd for next 3-5 sessions

sofia kaprikorn 08:31 GMT March 11, 2010
trendline support
Reply   
Sell AUDUSD
Entry: 0.9161 Target: 0.9029 Stop: 0.9196

today's low is right on the T/L support and I think it's a good R/R to test the support with target the 89-DMA below..

PAR 08:07 GMT March 11, 2010
PBOC - Rate Hike
Reply   
China data spur talk of further tightening
By Geoff Dyer in Beijing

Published: March 11 2010 05:42 - Last updated: March 11 2010 05:42

Inflation in China jumped sharply last month, increasing the pressure on the government to begin raising interest rates and allow the renminbi to rise against the US dollar.

Consumer prices rose by 2.7 per cent in February from a year ago, well above January’s 1.5 per cent increase and close to the 3 per cent ceiling that Premier Wen Jiabao set for this year in his speech to the National People’s Congress
Industrial production also accelerated, increasing by 20.7 per cent for the first two months of 2010 over the year before. The figure came in above analysts’ forecasts and the 18.5 per cent increase recorded in December. Factory-gate prices climbed 5.4 per cent in February against 4.3 per cent the month before.

Hong Kong 07:43 GMT March 11, 2010
GBP/USD Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Reply   
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD: 1.4955


Last Update At 11 Mar 2010 06:52 GMT




Despite intra-day rebound fm 1.4949 to 1.4988 in
Asian trading, failure to re-test y'day's 1.4993
high (NY) suggests further sideways move wud conti-
nue but as long as 1.4928 (reaction low) holds, cor
rective rise fm 1.4873 wud head twd 1.5017 later.

For short term trade, buy cable on dips with stop below
said sup, break may risk weakness to 1.4900/05.


Range Forecast
1.4955 / 1.4985


Resistance/Support
R: 1.4993/1.5017/1.5031
S: 1.4928/1.4900/1.4873

http://www.acetraderfx.com

Montréal Taro 07:40 GMT March 11, 2010
gbpusd 14960

wfakhoury

Does 1.4960 still the determination level for trend ?

TIA

tokyo rana 06:25 GMT March 11, 2010
cable day trade

hello,how are you?
thanx for your kind posts always...
ithink gbpjpy will go up today according to daily chart...
by the way what is your view?
audjpy 82..650 short ok or not?
best regards,

Juffair KaL 06:22 GMT March 11, 2010
cable day trade
Reply   
Hourly for into next day
--------------
if actual sma 20 hrs is higher then

SMA 20 Hrs High=1166752.71669277+Now()*-57.9752963788206+Now()^2*0.000720191014187195+2*0.000167638483788534
Then short it using
High=Previous Close *1.001
-----------------
if actual sma 20 hrs is less then

SMA 20 Hrs Low=1166752.71669277+Now()*-57.9752963788206+Now()^2*0.000720191014187195-2*0.000167638483788534

then long it using
Low=Previous Close *0.9988

this is a major works IMO
check it it out

tokyo rana 06:15 GMT March 11, 2010
still long!
Reply   
Buy GBPJPY
Entry: 135 Target: 137 to 139 Stop: 133.700

today added more 135 target 137 to 139.......best regards

U.K. J.B. 05:07 GMT March 11, 2010
Spot on London thats why i left the UK . Country finished in my view . I dont think you mentioned the 50 % tax and these ridiculous over payed football players.

Syd 05:06 GMT March 11, 2010
DJ MARKET TALK:Aussie Job Market Can Still Justify Apr Hike -Macq
Reply   
Australian job market strong enough to warrant back-to-back 25 bps rate hike by RBA in April, says Rory Robertson, debt strategist at Macquarie Bank. Says latest data show economy in very good shape, allowing RBA to hike again next month if it pleases. "If you put a gun to my head today, I'd guess that the RBA is going to hike again by 25 bps in April." The RBA can easily repeat simple story it used to justify last week's hike: the economy is in good shape and interest rates to most borrowers "remain lower than average." Adds with an election due later this year, RBA may view it as making sense to get another hike out of the way early, in case it needs to do several more this year.

GVI Forex Blog 04:52 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   
The US Equities closed higher after a volatile session yesterday. The Dow (10567.33)...

Morning Briefing : 11-Mar-2010 - 0340 GMT

Syd 04:51 GMT March 11, 2010
DJ 3rd UPDATE: Australia's Labor Market Shows Few Signs Of Cooling
Reply   
Australia's labor force added fewer-than-expected jobs in February, but a large jump in full-time positions at the expense of part-time jobs and an increase in the number of hours worked indicates underlying demand for workers remains strong.

The economy has created close to 200,000 new jobs in the past six months, providing a challenge to policy makers as they grapple with a renewed resources boom that is set to further exacerbate capacity constraints.

The latest numbers won't likely change much on the outlook for monetary policy, with market pricing indicating that traders see only a 33% change of the Reserve Bank of Australia raising rates at its April meeting.

In February, the number of employed rose only 400, the Bureau of Statistics said. Economists on average had expected a rise of 15,000.

If anything, the flat employment growth coupled with weak housing finance shows the RBA has the room to keep its powder dry in April, Justin Smirk, chief economist at St. George said.

"What we see now is that there is no extra pressure on the RBA," Smirk said.

The RBA has already pushed rates higher to 4.00% from 3.00% and monetary policy is approaching a neutral setting. At this point the RBA has not indicated any desire to tighten beyond neutral, so don't expect the central bank to be in a rush just at the moment, he said.

The jobless rate ticked higher to 5.3%, but from a revised lower 5.2%, while the number of people in full-time work rose 11,400 to 7.66 million from 7.65 million in January. Those in part-time work fell 11,000 to 3.31 million from 3.32 million.

"On balance it's a pretty solid result in the context of big gains in recent months," said JP Morgan Economist Stephen Walters.

Interest rate traders initially bought short end bonds on the news, with the March three-year spot contract climbing three ticks to 95.00 before slipping back to 94.945.

The currency fell to US$0.9126 from US$0.9145 before the numbers, and has since fallen further to US$0.9118 on weaker Chinese stocks.

Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard said recent jobs growth hasn't been even across Australia.

"We are still seeing some very high unemployment numbers in parts of Queensland and Western Sydney, for example," Gillard told reporters. Coal rich Queensland's unemployment rate remained above the national average at 5.7%, and above the 5.5% recorded in January. A breakdown of statistics for Sydney's Western suburbs was not immediately available.

Economists said a rise in the average working week means there are few signs of weakness in the jobs market.

"Given the volatility of the month-on-month data, it's not that surprising to get an occasional soft month. It doesn't stop the underlying trend of improvement, however, that we've seen over the past six months," said UBS economist George Tharenou.

The bureau said its seasonally adjusted workforce participation rate, or the proportion of working-age persons at work or actively seeking work, fell to 65.2% in February from 65.3% in January.

Aggregate monthly hours worked rose 2.4% in February from January to 1.55 billion hours, reversing months of a statistical quandary where hours worked remained stubbornly low even as thousands of jobs were added.

"This finally reverses the trend where hours worked are now increasing," said ANZ Bank Senior Economist Julie Toth. "It's certainly the turning point we were waiting for."

A notable feature of Australia's mild economic downturn was the ability of employers to cut staff hours, rather than terminate contracts, keeping the overall unemployment rate well below the expected peak.

Hong Kong Qindex 03:40 GMT March 11, 2010
QIndex Trading System

Sell USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

USD/JPY : The following is still valid :-


03/10/2010 09:50:46 Qindex Hong Kong 6

Sell USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:
USD/JPY : The market is consolidating within the weekly cycle matrix system at 89.57 - 90.02 - 90.53. Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy.


===================================

USD/JPY : The current expected trading range is 89.82 - 90.90. The next downside targeting range is 88.30 - 88.69.

Mumbai draks 03:33 GMT March 11, 2010
Trades
Reply   
Euro Play the range of 1.3600-1.3700
Buy 1.3615.. s/l 1.3575 for 1.3685..
Sell 1.3705, s/l 1.3755 for 1.3625

JPY
Sell 90.45, s/l 90.85 for 89.65

dc CB 03:16 GMT March 11, 2010
Casablanca
Reply   
Hollywood derivitives


A Place to Bet Real Money on Movies

Singapore BA 02:45 GMT March 11, 2010
eurchf
Reply   
Buy EURCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

We should have a poll how many are long this cross waiting for the snb to come in.

LA BV 02:43 GMT March 11, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3670 Target: 1.3600 Stop: 1.3707

Bet is for range trade and return to 1.36 sometime Thursday.

Syd 02:34 GMT March 11, 2010
DJ :China Bonds Up; Hike Unlikely Despite CPI -Analyst
Reply   
China government bonds up mildly despite February CPI on-year growth hitting 16-month high, as steady yield on 3-month PBOC bill sold in open market operation helps stabilize market confidence, says Shanghai Securities analyst Wang Yingfeng; notes jump in February inflation data mainly due to seasonal factors, CPI growth likely to slow down in March. Also, decision by PBOC-backed NAFMII to lower minimum yields on new corporate debt sold on interbank market yesterday signals central bank unlikely to hike official interest rates in near term.

Syd 02:14 GMT March 11, 2010
China Jan-Feb Industrial Output Picks Up, CPI Mild
Reply   
Latest China economic data likely to alleviate pressure on Beijing to further sharply scale back policy stimulus: Inflation remains mild (January-February CPI +2.1% on year vs December's +1.9%; more appropriate to look at January-February data together because single-month data distorted by timing of Lunar New Years), while industrial output continues to gather strength (January-February +20.7% on year vs +18.5% in December). For sure, Beijing's already been withdrawing stimulus, will likely continue to doing so as economy picks up, but it's also made clear it will be cautious in withdrawing support, including currency policy, as it's still worried about uncertainties abroad. So unlikely to make sharp policy changes, especially based on single set of data, policymakers will probably look at a few more months' of data

SF WM 01:50 GMT March 11, 2010
Expect a sharp US dollar collapse

That article has a US centric view of the world. One day that may prove true but right now the USA has a free ride while Europe and the UK are under the microscope.

Syd 01:42 GMT March 11, 2010
Sydney house prices tipped to push higher
Reply   
Property prices in Sydney’s inner and middle rings could rise by up to 10 per cent this year, according to an industry association.

The Real Estate Buyer’s Agents Association of Australia said much depended on the effect of rising interest rates and tighter loan conditions.


http://www.smh.com.au/business/sydney-house-prices-tipped-to-push-higher-20100311-q0em.html

Syd 01:36 GMT March 11, 2010
China Metal Imports To Rise In Coming Mos - BMO
Reply   
Recovery in China domestic economy, restocking and recovering industrial activity in the West imply tightening markets, higher prices for key industrial commodities into 2011, says BMO's Bart Melek in note. Adds China imports of unwrought copper in February prove many forecasters wrong by actually rising 10% on month, according to customs data yesterday. In contrast, copper scrap imports drop 17% on month, suggest tight primary copper market, continued price pressure. "Chinese commodity imports should perform even better in the coming months due to seasonal factors and as the global recovery firms."

Syd 01:26 GMT March 11, 2010
DJ Aussie Jobs Data Support Higher Rates - Macquarie
Reply   
Despite lower-than-expected headline Australian jobs growth in February - with only 400 jobs added vs expected 15,000 - when coupled with leading indicators such as job adverts, hiring intentions in business surveys, data "are supportive of higher interest rates", says Macquarie Bank economist Brian Redican. Notably, rise in full-time employment is positive, as is increase in aggregate hours worked - suggesting there's a lot of resilience in labor market. Macquarie has 3 RBA rate hikes penciled in for 2010, one for each quarter, starting May, though risk is RBA does more, and earlier.

Hong Kong 00:56 GMT March 11, 2010
Daily Market outlook by AceTrader
Reply   
Market Review - 10/03/2010 22:51GMT

Euro rebounds on improved risk appetite and Greece's plan to cut deficit


The single currency rebounded strongly on Wednesday after Greece submitted a report to EU on its plans to tame its budget deficit while the greenback slipped against most currencies but rose against the yen, as gains in global stocks brought a return of risk appetite, boosting demand for higher-yielding currencies.

The euro traded with a soft undertone in Asia initially and briefly tumbled to an intra-day low of 1.3544 in European morning on disappointing German trade data. German January trade surplus was narrowed to 8.7 bln euro from 16.6 bln in December, much worse than median forecast of 16.0 bln. However, buying interest emerged above previous good support at 1.3530 and lifted euro. News later came in saying Greece told EU implementation of deficit plan is ahead of schedule. Price surged above Tuesday's high of 1.3636 on short-squeeze as well as cross-buying and hit an intra-day high of 1.3680 in NY mid-day before stabilizing.

Versus the Japanese yen, dollar traded sideways in Asia with traders saying Japanese exporters had sold the euro and the dollar this week, repatriating some of their overseas earnings in the run-up to the fiscal year-end on March 31. However, the pair's weakness was limited by speculation that the Bank of Japan may take measure to ease monetary policy as it remains under pressure to pull the country out of a nagging deflation. The greenback made an upside break in European morning and rose on improved risk appetites due to firmness in global stock markets. The pair rallied to an intra-day high of 90.83 in NY morning before retreating due to profit taking.

The aussie rose to its highest level in seven weeks after a report showed employers added jobs for six straight month. Positive jobs outlook together with supportive data from China which showed the country's exports increased the most in three years lifted the currency in Asia and Europe. Aussie hit a 25-year high against the pound and the strongest since 1997 versus the euro in the Asian morning as central bank Assistant Governor Philip Lowe said growth will likely be at or above average the next couple of years. Aussie surged to an intra-day high of 0.9193 in NY mid-day before retreating.

RBNZ kept its cash rate unchanged at at record low of 2.5% as wildly expected and reiterated that a start to higher rates is likely around the middle of the year. Despite displaying apparent strength before the rate decision (rising to as high as 0.7100 in NY mid-day), price tumbled to 0.7010 after the announcement on profit taking.

Economic data to be released on Thursday include Japan GDP, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Swiss SNB rate decision, US jobless claims, trade balance, Canada capacity utilisation, export, import, new house price index and trade balance.

http://www.acetraderfx.com

Syd 00:45 GMT March 11, 2010
DJ Aussie Jobs Mkt Steady In Feb; Full-Time Jobs Up
Reply   
Australian jobs market barely budges in February, adding a mere 400 jobs overall, much less than the expected 15,000 jobs; jobless rate ticks higher to 5.3% vs revised 5.2%. Participation rate dips to 65.2% from 65.3%. Numbers though indicate a jump in full-time positions (those in full-time work rose 11,400 to 7.66 million in February) and aggregate hours worked, meaning underlying demand is steady, economy in robust shape

GVI Forex Blog 00:44 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   

Stocks finish Higher after Volatile Session

GVI Forex Blog 00:44 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   

U.S. Dollar Mixed at the Close; Euro Finishes Higher

GVI Forex Blog 00:43 GMT March 11, 2010 Reply   
EUR remains in broad range Global economic optimism on Chinese exports GBP/AUD a major mover

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (10 March 2010)

Syd 00:36 GMT March 11, 2010
AUD
Reply   
Australia's unemployment rate rose to an as-expected seasonally adjusted 5.3% in February, from a revised 5.2% in January. The number of employed rose 400, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Thursday.

Syd 00:31 GMT March 11, 2010
Australia Feb Unemployment Rate 5.3%; Consensus 5.3%
Reply   
Australia Feb Employment +400; Consensus +15000
Australia Full-Time Employment +11400
Australia Participation Rate 65.2%; Consensus 65.3%

Syd 00:18 GMT March 11, 2010
Expect a sharp US dollar collapse
Reply   
Yes, sounds a little sensational but across the board the US dollar has moved to a position of being close to a sharp resumption of its long term down-trend, which would be great for the US, the world, and markets
http://www.switzer.com.au/the-experts/clifford-bennett-currency-expert/expect-a-sharp-us-dollar-collapse/

 




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