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Forex Forum Archive for 05/02/2010

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Lahore FM 23:59 GMT May 2, 2010
Trade Ideas

Entry: 0.8700 Target: 0.8500 Stop: 0.8760

selling the pair as one of the trades for the May month!

Syd 23:38 GMT May 2, 2010
Australia's April Performance Of Mfg Index +9.3 Pts To 59.8
Australia's manufacturing sector grew at a rapid pace during April to reach its strongest levels since 2002, helped by renewed strength in the building and infrastructure sectors, a performance gauge produced by an industry group and published Monday shows

Belgrade TD 23:03 GMT May 2, 2010

04/29/2010 16:49:23 TD Belgrade 2 -> S&P sell average ~1201+
Belgrade TD 16:22 GMT April 30, 2010 ->
closed 1/3 at 1193 ... new stop at 1203 ... target 1180+
closed 1/3 at 1187 ... for the last 1/3 stop at 1197

Syd 21:30 GMT May 2, 2010
Pakistani Taliban Claims Responsibility, Reports Claim

Serial numbers may hold the key if euro falls apart
As leading German politicians last week called for Greece to be kicked out of the single currency, attention began to focus on what had previously been unthinkable - what would happen to euro notes and coins if the single currency broke apart?

Hans-Peter Friedrich, leader of the conservative Christian Social Union, said Greece should 'seriously consider leaving the eurozone'.

Chancellor Angela Merkel is still backing a multi-billion bailout for Greece, but opinion in her country is sharply divided, with many calling for Greece to be given the elbow, or more dramatically for Germany to quit the euro.

Syd 21:09 GMT May 2, 2010
Aussie Tax Review Could Push Stocks Higher - CommSec
Australian equities market could push into positive territory early on bargain hunting in resources sector after release of government's tax review but bigger driver will be negative lead from Wall Street and Greek debt problems, says CommSec Senior Equities Economist Craig James. Says much-vaunted tax review has turned out to be "a lot about nothing" and resources stocks and wider market index won't be hurt as much as some had feared. "There was so much hype but at the end of it most individuals will see little change." Says resources tax will be substantially offset by other tax breaks and companies have time to prepare for the changes. "There was a lot of doom and gloom in the market late last week about the impact on the resources sector but I don't think it will be as bad as people feared." One danger is an assumption of Chinese demand for commodities. Says little budgetary or economic impact in near term from tax plan.

Syd 21:07 GMT May 2, 2010
EUR/USD To Grind Up,Mkts Digesting Greece Aid Deal
EUR/USD likely to grind higher on day as markets digest aid package for debt-laden Greece, with initial resistance around 1.3410, says Bank of NZ strategist Mike Jones. Pair last 1.3344. On downside, tips support to hold at 1.3280. Says pair "in a bit of a twilight zone at the moment as people digest details of the package." Also, important to note package not fully confirmed yet; "there are still a few hoops to jump through in terms of European agreement." While looking likely, could be a "sideways chop" until confirmation, more detail.

Buffett Says CEOs Of Companies Must Have Pay Cut If Firms Fail
Buffett Says CEOs Have Gotten Off Lightly In Financial Crisis
Buffett Says Goldman, Lehman On Other Side Of Some Of Berkshire's Equity-Put Derivatives
Buffett, Munger Say They Don't Know When Interest Rates Should Be Raised
Buffett Says Deciding Best Time To Raise Interest Rates A Difficult Decision
Buffett Says Berkshire Has Capacity To Sell 3 Times As Much Reinsurance
Buffett Says He Had 'No Problem' With Goldman Abacus Transaction
Buffett Says Goldman, Lehman On Other Side Of Some Of Berkshire's Equity-Put Derivatives
Buffett, Munger Say They Don't Know When Interest Rates Should Be Raised
Berkshire has sold mortgage insurance and offered protection on securities much like ACA did, he said. "It's up to me to evaluate" the transaction "We look at the portfolio and try to find the right premium."

In fact, he said, he stood on the other side of derivative bets from Goldman before Berkshire bought preferred shares from Goldman in the depths of the credit crisis. Berkshire sold Goldman so-called equity-index put options that would leave Berkshire on the hook if world stock markets are lower in 2018 or later than they were when the derivatives were sold.

Lehman Brothers Holdings Co. was another customer that purchased the derivatives, he said.

GVI Forex Blog 20:56 GMT May 2, 2010 Reply   
Risk sentiment was weaker during the US session, hurting US equities, risk currencies and depressing US treasury bond yields.

Forex Research - Morning Report

Tallinn viies 20:16 GMT May 2, 2010
aid package smaller than rumored and should be taken as euro negative as I understand?

Auckland peat 20:10 GMT May 2, 2010
Euro Trading after hours
Made a quick 35 pips on longing the Euro as my platform allows trading after hours (tho with an increased spread).

St. Louis SAJ 20:09 GMT May 2, 2010

Ultimately, yes. However, until such time as EU/EMU get their sovereign debt situation under control to some extent, US debt will retain a good bid. Please note that I am **not** touting US paper here, merely saying that **for the time being** there is much less uncertainty in holding US paper than holding much of the Eurozone's paper.

At the moment, absolutely no one knows how the Greek (and Portuguese, and Spanish...) debt/potential default situation(s) will play out. Once there is some sort of consensus about this, US debt will start to suffer.

Best solution imnnho, although not authorised by Maastricht or Lisbon or anything else of which I'm aware, is simply to boot Greece to the curb, thus solving one problem immediately and serving notice to future would-be bailout applicants that they must 'straighten up and fly right', as the old song used to say.

Cruel to the Greeks, certainly, but after all, no one asked the Greek goobermint and central bank to lie their little fannies off in order to get into EU/EMU, now did they?

PAR 18:51 GMT May 2, 2010
FDIC - Expensive weekend in Puerto Rico $ 6 billion
Puerto Rico Governor, FDIC's Bair Call Bank Closure a Milestone

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico -- The closure and sale of three Puerto Rican banks on Friday is a milestone in the recovery of the U.S.'s troubled banking industry, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.'s Chairman Sheila Bair said at a press conference Saturday.

"I really think we an inflection point in the health of the banking system," Ms. Bair said during a press conference at La Fortaleza, the Puerto Rico governor's mansion.

"The pricing" for the banks, closed by the Office of the Commissioner of Financial Institutions of Puerto Rico and sold by the FDIC, "was better" than expected, "the bidding interest was stronger than anticipated, the ability of local institutions interested in bidding to raise capital that is not contingent capital was pretty phenomenal."

"We see that on the mainland too," Ms. Bair said. "We see signs of repair in the banking system."

The three closed banks collapsed under the weight of bad real estate loans and construction loans. Popular Inc., the island's biggest bank, bought W Holding Co. Inc.'s Westernbank, and Oriental Financial Group Inc., the island's second-smallest bank, bought EuroBancshares Inc.'s EuroBank. Canada's Bank of Nova Scotia bought R&G Financial Corp.'s R-G Premier Bank.

Puerto Rico Governor Luis Fortuno said the closure of three of the island's banks is a turning point for its economy. "We needed a strong, fully functioning banking industry. That's what we have today," he said.

Ms. Bair said she agreed. "There is optimism in the Puerto Rican economy," she said. The acquiring banks must offer modifications and work-out options to consumers and businesses that fell behind in their payments, she said, a measure intended to prevent a worsening of the island's economic crisis and ease concerns about falling real estate values.

The process of selling the banks was a considerable challenge for the FDIC, which cost its deposit insurance fund $5.28 billion, less than about $6 billion the agency expected. There was little interest, and no bidding, from mainland U.S. banks. The three closed banks held about a quarter of the assets of the 10 banks headquartered on the island, and almost 30% of the island's deposits. Not since the savings and loan crisis in the 1990s had the the agency dealt with such a big problem in one banking market.

Paris ib 16:45 GMT May 2, 2010
youtube link

Paris ib 16:43 GMT May 2, 2010
Short Euro positions are currently at record levels.
Next week the FED completes its bond buying programme and, though I'm loathe to use the link:
it nevertheless provides interesting information.

Sounds like a perfect storm is building for the USD and U.S. Treasuries.

Mtl JP 14:30 GMT May 2, 2010

San Diego LC / taking Lehman Bros' sept 15 2008 filling for bancruptcy date as starting point... current odds of implosion of the West govts' default and collapse of their fractional reserve banking system, i.e. of "The End", is overdue IF one takes for timeline blueprint former USSR's collapse which took approximately two years and for which the "west" gleefully took credit.

Maybe Qindex could offer date and magnitude estimate...

Melbourne Qindex 12:56 GMT May 2, 2010
Crude Oil : Critical Support 81.18
Entry: Target: Stop:

Crude Oil : Critical Support 81.18

The market is positive when it is above the weekly cycle matrix system at 78.54 - 79.75 - 81.18. Projected resistant barriers are located at 88.54 // 90.05 and 92.86 // 94.83.

Crude Oil : Monthly Cycle Charts

Syd 11:29 GMT May 2, 2010
DJ UPDATE- Greek Fin Min: New Austerity Measures Unprecedented
Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said that the new measures imposed to secure access to an unprecedented bailout package from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund are the harshest and most austere ever imposed in European history.
Speaking at a press conference before he flying to meet other finance ministers from the euro zone in Brussels, he outlined a plan that includes cuts in bonus wages for public servants, cuts in pension bonuses, hikes in sales and excise taxes, and a three year wage freeze for all workers.
"The negotiations on the aid package were tough and they finished last night," Papaconstantinou said. "Our choice was either to let the country collapse or undertake a hard fiscal adjustment with difficult measures for an unprecedented amount of aid.".

To "save the country" Papaconstantinou said there will be scaled rises in the value added tax of between half to two percentage points across the three different tiers, while excises taxes on fuel, alcohol and cigarettes would rise by 10%, luxury goods taxes would be hiked and a new tax on gambling wins would be introduced.

The harshest measures were imposed on public sector workers, who will loose their so-called bonus wages, or the equivalent of two months' pay above the usual 12 months. It will be replaced by a payment of EUR1,000 per year, but only for those with gross wages of less than EUR3,000 a month.

While private sector bonuses will not be cut, wages will be frozen for three years. The labor market will be liberalized, increasing the right of employers to lay off workers as well as pay them lower redundancy compensation. Closed off professions will also be liberalized.

All pensioners, irrespective if they worked in the private or public sector, would loss their two extra bonus wages if their pensions exceed EUR2,500 per month.

The new pension system will impose a minimum pensionable age of 60 years, and women in the public sector will see their pensionable age increased to equal that of men from 2011 onwards. Additionally, the calculations of pension benefits from now on will change, with the expectation that benefits will fall because it will factor in longer life expectancies.

"We attempted to ameliorate public sector and pension cuts. The negotiations were tough and it became increasingly clear that the country would need more assistance than first thought" the Papaconstantinou said.

Papaconstantinou said that Greece will have until 2014 to cut is budget deficit as a percentage of gross domestic product to below 3%, as is mandatory under European rules.

"We will be cutting the budget deficit by 5% this year from its level of 13.6% of GDP for 2009," he said.

The government had previous proposed a cut of four percentage points of GDP under its Growth and Stability plan submitted to European authorities.

"Public expenditure which now is as high as 50% of GDP will be cut by 7% over the next three years," he said.

Papaconstantinou added that the actual amount of the aid package would be announced in Brussels by the European Union, but that "the conditions to the aid package require three-monthly progress audits for the dispersal of funds."

The aid mechanism will also provide assistance for the Greek banking system, to bolster its capital adequacy and preserve liquidity. However, there will be a one off levy on all profitable companies because "everyone has to contribute for the salvation of the country."

The Finance Minister said that the bailout will allow Greece to implement reforms and will provide sufficient funds for Greece's borrowing needs until the early months of 2012.

"The aid protects our country from the international markets but our aim is to return to return to them after they normalize," Papaconstantinou said. "But for that to happen we need time to implement our reforms so we can borrow at lower than the unusually high rates now available."

The new measures will take effect immediately while the bill will be submitted to Parliament tomorrow under expedited procedures and should be passed this week.

"We have chosen to save the country, make public finances sustainable, and make the economy more open, competitive and value added," Papaconstantinou added.

GVI Forex Blog 11:18 GMT May 2, 2010 Reply   
Everyone and their brother intuitively knows that the current government fiscal deficits in the developed world are unsustainable. They have to be brought under control, but that requires some short-term pain. Today we look at a rather remarkable piece of research from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) on what the fiscal crisis may morph into in the future

The Future of Public Debt

NYC WSJ 11:01 GMT May 2, 2010
Greece bailout - public reaction
Greece faces public protests:

Greece Reaches Bailout Deal With EU, IMF

GVI Forex Jay 10:53 GMT May 2, 2010
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Syd 10:01 GMT May 2, 2010
Greece seals deal for financial bailout
The aid package -120 billion euros over 3 years- represents the first rescue of a member of the 16-nation euro zone and is aimed at stemming a debt crisis that has shaken markets worldwide.

Greece has sealed a deal with the EU and IMF that opens the door to a multi-billion euro financial bailout but will require major sacrifices from the Greek people, Prime Minister George Papandreou said on Sunday.

The aid package, expected to total up to 120 billion euros ($160 billion)
(Reuters) - Greece has sealed a deal with the EU and IMF that opens the door to a multi-billion euro financial bailout but will require major sacrifices from the Greek people, Prime Minister George Papandreou said on Sunday.

The aid package, expected to total up to 120 billion euros ($160 billion) over three years, represents the first rescue of a member of the 16-nation euro zone and is aimed at stemming a debt crisis that has shaken markets worldwide.

"It is an unprecedented support package for an unprecedented effort by the Greek people," a somber Papandreou told a televised cabinet meeting.
In a statement, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso recommended that Europe activate the aid, calling the package of austerity measures "solid and credible."

"This assistance will be decisive to help Greece bring its economy back on track and preserve the stability of the Euro area," Barroso said.

Syd 09:46 GMT May 2, 2010
EU's Barroso: Greece Has Met Conditions For Aid Package
Greece has met the conditions for an emergency loans package to halt its spiralling debt, the European Commission said Sunday and called on members states to activate the deal.

"The Commission considers that the conditions for responding positively to the request by the Greek Government are met and recommends that the coordinated European mechanism for assistance to Greece be activated, on the basis of the agreed multi-annual adjustment programme," Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said in a statement.

The agreed package is "solid and credible" he said. "It will put the Greek economy on a sustainable path and restore confidence."

Syd 08:47 GMT May 2, 2010
Greece Set To Announce Tough New Measures For Aid -Source
ATHENS (Dow Jones)--Greece is set to announce very tough new austerity measures including further deep cuts to public sector wages to be able to access a multi year support mechanism Sunday, a government official said to Dow Jones Newswires.

The source said that the 13th and 14th bonus salaries will be scrapped for the public service employees and all salaries including those in the private sector will be frozen for three years.

Pensions above EUR700 a month will forfeit their 13th and 14th bonus entitlements.

Value Added Taxes will be hiked by two percentage points across the board.

While in the private sector bonus salaries will not be touched, collective bargaining wage agreements will be scrapped and replaced by private negotiations.

Prime Minister George Papandreou is holding an extraordinary cabinet meeting at 0630 GMT to discuss the terms for the EUR100 billion to 120 billion support mechanism from the European Union and International Monetary Fund.

Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou is expected to hold a press conference to announce the new measures at about 0900 GMT, while European Finance Ministers are holding a meeting in Brussles at 1400 GMT.

Melbourne Qindex 07:19 GMT May 2, 2010
S&P 500 : Critical Support 1172.3
S&P 500 (1183.4, CME) : Critical Support 1172.3

The market is under pressure when it is below the weekly cycle matrix system at 1190.8 - 1209.0 - 1226.8. A resistant barrier is located at 1186.2 // 1199.5 and a supporting barrier is expected at 1163.1 // 1173.2.

S&P 500 : Monthly Cycle Charts

Syd 06:24 GMT May 2, 2010
Tories urged to call in IMF for audit of UK’s debts if they win election

The Conservatives have been urged to consider the "nuclear option" of calling in the International Monetary Fund to examine the full extent of Britain's debts if they win the election.

Syd 06:17 GMT May 2, 2010
Warren Buffett backs Goldman Sachs over fraud allegations
The "Sage of Omaha" – speaking publicly for the first time since the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed civil fraud charges against the investment bank – stressed that he "loves" his $5bn (£3.27bn) stake in the investment bank and branded the Royal Bank of Scotland as "dumb" for losing $900m on the $1bn transaction under scrutiny from civil and criminal investigators. "When we [Berkshire] trade with them [Goldman], they could very well be shorting a product, they do not owe us a divulgence of their position more than any reason why we need to explain what we are doing with our position." He went on to reveal that he "loves" Berkshire's stake in Goldman – which pays an annual dividend of $500m, equivalent to $15 a second.

Melbourne Qindex 05:04 GMT May 2, 2010
Gold : Critical Resistance 1194.7
Gold (1180.1, COMEX) : Critical Resistance 1194.7

The market is positive when it is above the barrier at 1170.5 // 1180.6. Projected resistant barriers are located at 1191.2 // 1201.8 and 1204.2 // 1218.2.

Gold : Monthly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 03:50 GMT May 2, 2010
Silver : Critical Resistance 19.65
Silver (18.611, COMEX) : Critical Resistance 19.65

The market is positive when it is above the weekly cycle matrix system at 18.08 - 18.44 - 18.52. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market momentum is strong enough to overcome the resistant barrier at 19.00 //19.63.

Silver : Monthly Cycle Charts

Toronto MDunleavy 03:28 GMT May 2, 2010

Entry: 1.5270 Target: 1.4850 Stop: 1.5360

The pound reversed below the new support level at $1.53, warning of a bull trap.
Expect another test of $1.48.
Recovery above $1.53, however, would signal a rally to $1.60, confirmed if the declining trend line is broken.

HK [email protected] 01:38 GMT May 2, 2010
Things do not look too stable in Europe.

More than half of Greeks say they will take to the streets if the government agrees to new austerity measures, according to an ALCO poll released on Friday by the newspaper Proto Thema.

Melbourne Qindex 01:31 GMT May 2, 2010
Platinum : Critical Resistant Point 1766.0
Platinum (1745.1, NYMEX) : Critical Resistant Point 1766.0

The odds are in favor of maintaining a long position when the market is trading above the barrier at 1729.8 // 1746.4. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above the barrier at 1766.0 // 1781.0.

Platinum : Monthly Cycle Charts


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