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Forex Forum Archive for 05/03/2010

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.

Syd 23:46 GMT May 3, 2010
How Investors Can Profit From Break-Up of Euro:
How Investors Can Profit From Break-Up of Euro:

Australia's Swan: Won't Speculated About Australian Dollar Level
Australia's Swan: Intent On Returning Budget To Surplus
Australia's Swan: Won't Speculate On Bond Issuance

Melbourne Qindex 23:38 GMT May 3, 2010

Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/USD : The market is trapped in the range of 1.5192 - 1.5280.

Melbourne Qindex 23:36 GMT May 3, 2010
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/USD : The market is trapped in the range of 1.5216 - 1.5268 for the time being.

Syd 23:34 GMT May 3, 2010
MARKET TALK: NZ 1Q Wage Growth Below Expectations
NZ wages growth remains sluggish in 1Q, falls short of economist forecasts, indicating economic recovery remains slow. Stats NZ says ordinary-time salary, wage rates in private sector, measured by its labor cost index, or LCI, +0.3% in 1Q from 4Q, +1.3% on year. Numbers lower than median 0.5% quarterly rise, 1.5% annual increase forecast .Data indicates that Thursday's employment data also likely to be on weak side, may result in RBNZ waiting a bit longer than June to begin removing fiscal stimulus.

Syd 23:13 GMT May 3, 2010
Fingers on the button at the ECBFingers on the button at the ECB

One in five Spanish workers is jobless
Unemployment in Spain has hit the 20 per cent mark for the first time since 1997 as the country’s economy contracted for the sixth consecutive quarter. Spain is reeling from a sharp downturn in construction activity that had bolstered economic growth over the past decade and attracted a large number of immigrants to the southern European country. The Spanish Government has appealed for calm. Elena Salgado, finance minister, reiterated yesterday that Spain would not have to ask for help from other eurozone countries. LINK

MERVYN KING believes interest rates in Britain will stay lower for longer than the markets expect, according to private conversations he had with a senior American economist.
David Hale told Australian television last week that at a private meeting the Bank of England governor had told him that the tax increases and spending cuts that would be needed would be so unpopular as to keep the party that introduced them "out of power for a whole generation". LINK

Syd 23:03 GMT May 3, 2010
Bond market traders poised for unprecedented 1am gilts sell-off on election night
Traders on the floor of an investment bank during the Budget this year. Many expect to work all night for the electionLINK

HK [email protected] 22:50 GMT May 3, 2010
AUS/USD. Looks like a heavy fat wild duck, ready for a takeoff in the presence of thousand hunters.

So many robust news, but the duck can't take off for a time.

Long Spec. laden currency may land first at 0.9200 not much after the interest increase announcement.

Chicago sc 22:42 GMT May 3, 2010

Entry: 1.3250 Target: 1.3180 Stop: 1.3285

putting in an order.

Gen dk 22:29 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 22:02 GMT May 3, 2010
Special Report - Great Britain's Economic Crisis:
Britain's Accelerating Trend Towards High Inflation and UK Debt Default Bankruptcy
1/2 Million Public Sector Job Losses Coming
The Economically Inactive Benefits Culture
Britain spends £106 billion a year on social security on the over 8 million of people of working age who are termed as economically inactive. There exist vast swathes of the country where there exist benefits estates where there is no work ethic and the key strategy is for people to maximise benefits received by producing as many babies as possible. Few of these so called parents intend on performing their parenting duties as children are left to roam feral on the streets, spreading fear and petty crime in neighbourhoods.

GVI Forex Blog 21:05 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   

Let's make a European Deal

Syd 20:51 GMT May 3, 2010
Gartman Says Greece Default `Inevitable,’ Will Leave EMU: Video
May 3 (Bloomberg) — Dennis Gartman, an economist and editor of the Gartman Letter, talks with Bloomberg’s Maryam Nemazee about market reaction to the 110 billion-euro ($146 billion) bailout plan for Greece approved by euro-region finance ministers. Gartman also discusses the outlook for Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein’s address to the firm’s annual shareholder meeting in New York on May 7.

RBA has to raise: here's why ... Terry Mccranns Column.
IF A single picture can capture why the Reserve Bank will raise its official interest rate today - why it has to raise - it is one actually published by the august institution itself with exquisite irony and perfect timing yesterday.

GVI Forex Blog 20:48 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   
20:00 GMT- May 3 ( Many centers were closed Monday due to a carry though of May Day observances. Reduced participation today was probably been a godsend as it has gave traders markets a chance to digest the Greek bailout. The plan is for $146 bln over the next three years from the EU and IM, along with a severe domestic austerity plan.

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Active Despite Holidays

GVI Forex Blog 20:47 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours:

Forex Research - Morning Report

GVI Forex Blog 20:45 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   
Canada's dollar rose against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as investors piled back into riskier assets, including currencies that feed off global growth, after a deal to rescue debt-stricken Greece

Forex News - CANADA FX DEBT-C$ rises as Greece deal boosts risk play

Syd 20:42 GMT May 3, 2010
White House’s Romer: Unwise to tighen fiscal policy too soon
More aid to state and local governments would be helpful, she says.

US Tsy Sees $340B 2Q Borrowing;Prev Estimate $268B Borrowing The U.S. Treasury estimated it will borrow $340
billion of net marketable debt for the second quarter of 2010, assuming a $280 billion cash balance on June 30, the Treasury announced Monday afternoon. The borrowing estimate is $71 billion higher than the prior estimate of $268 billion borrowing, which assumed a cash balance of $85 billion at the end of June. Details of the quarterly refunding are scheduled to be released on Wednesday, May 5 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
market news.

Australia Swan: Nonrenewable Resources Have Been Underpriced For Too Long. We are about to go through yet another extraordinary resources boom. Not since the Korean War wool boom of the 1950s have our terms of trade been as high as they were when we came into government," Swan told an audience of Australian Business Economists in Sydney Tuesday. The government wants to manage that boom to "share the wealth" and avoid a two-speed economy where non-mining parts of the economy find it difficult to attract and retain workers and investment drawn to the expanding mining sector. Because the new mining tax will only be levied on mines that earn big profits--not on production as is the case with current state government royalties of between 2% and 10%--it means start-ups and projects that are more marginal will be better off, Swan said. "This better tax treatment will put extra rungs on the bottom of the resource industry ladder, really helping those miners who struggle to get a solid start because of the combined impact of heavy upfront capital costs and royalties," he said. Unlike the seven different state and territory royalty regimes which are subject to change, the new federal tax will be locked in, reducing sovereign risk, Swan said.

Buffet: Europe Situation Reaching Uncharted Territory - Press
WASHINGTON Billionaire investor Warren Buffet said Monday that he is avoiding currency plays and said it is very difficult to determine what the fallout will be from ongoing debt crisis in Europe. "Predicting economic behavior gets very tough when you get into sort of uncharted territory like this," Buffet said on CNBC.

GVI Forex john 20:31 GMT May 3, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Data @ 3:30 GMT
Reserve Bank of Australia Policy Decision
+25bp rate hike widely expected

Often a major events for forex and other financial markets. After all, forex price swings boil down to money flows. Through their money market activities, Central Banks set the “cost of money” (interest rates). Most target a short-term interest rate. Virtually all central banks, explicitly (or implicitly) target inflation in the medium term, so many traders track price trends closely as an indicator of policy. Central Bank watchers also usually dig deep into central bank policy statements for clues about future policy decisions.

HK [email protected] 20:21 GMT May 3, 2010
Entry: 94.555 Target: 95.10 Stop: 94.25


Syd 20:06 GMT May 3, 2010
Australia Swan: Nonrenewable Resources Have Been Underpriced For Too Long
Australia Swan: Resource Tax Will Be Locked In, Reducing Sovereign Risk
Australia Swan: New Resource Tax System To Favor Start-Ups, More Marginal Projects
Australia Swan: Economy About To Enter Extraordinary Resources Boom

Net long USD bets highest since August 2008-CFTC
The value of the dollar's net long position totaled $16.24 billion in the week ended April 27, compared with a net long of $9.78 billion a week earlier, according to CFTC and Reuters data.

DJ.....Dow's Failure To Fall Suggests Next Big Move Is Up

Despite all the volatility in the stock market the last couple of weeks, in the face of uncertainty surrounding European sovereign debt and U.S. regulatory overhaul, the stock market has actually gained ground. So although the old Wall Street adage "Sell in May and Go Away" has a catchy ring to it, there's a good chance that the market is ready to make another big push to the upside.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average suffered three triple-digit declines during the last two weeks of April after suffering only one in the previous two months, but the Dow never really went down. In fact, the Dow couldn't even get below the closest line of support at the 10950-to-11000 level, where there were several intraday highs during the mid-March to mid-April consolidation period.

After the Securities and Exchange Commission first filed fraud charges against Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) on April 16, the Dow hit five intraday lows below 11000--the lowest was 10965 on April 28--but closed below that level only once [at 10991.99 on April 27]. At last look, the Dow was back above the April 15 close, and only about a triple-digit gain away from a new high. The Dow was at 11160 in afternoon trading Monday.

Basically, investors may have sold to take profit, hedge long positions, or to go short, but the Dow didn't go down.

The recent consolidation has put the market in a much better position to launch its next rally. MKM Partners chief market technician Katie Stockton said the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 that were overbought based on the daily stochastic technical indicator, which compares closing prices relative to price ranges over a given time, fell from 50% to 3%. This now suggests "a buying opportunity is at hand," Stockton said.

The technical outlook might not be as positive if the fundamental backdrop were different. But as long as economic activity continues to strengthen and companies continue to profit from economic growth, then the headwinds created by concerns over European sovereign debt and regulatory overhaul shouldn't be so strong that the market can't maneuver through them.

A Dow close above last week's high of 11258 would open the doors to a rally up to the 11650 to 11850 resistance zone, as defined by the January and March 2008 lows and the August 2008 high. MKM's Stockton added that the S&P 500 should be able to overcome initial resistance in the 1220-to-1230 area. She sees 1325 as the S&P 500's long-term target. The S&P 500 was last at 1202 on Monday.

Either way, investors may want to avoid selling in May and going away.

GVI Forex john 19:21 GMT May 3, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

The Daily Forex View

Active Despite Holidays

20:00 GMT- May 3 (  Many centers were closed Monday due to a carry though of May Day observances. Reduced participation today was probably been a godsend as it has gave traders markets a chance to digest the Greek bailout. The plan is for $146 bln over the next three years


GVI Forex Blog 19:06 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   

Easing of Risk Concerns Help Boost Equity Markets

GVI Forex Blog 19:06 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   

Euro Continues to Plunge; Traders Expect Problems to Spread

GVI Forex Blog 18:30 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   
It is pretty clear that the currency story since January has been more than simply selling EURUSD on anxiety over European sovereign credit risk afflicting the Club Med members. The trade has been good to those who put it on –

Forex Blog - Sovereign Risk Arb

Phoenix MI 18:28 GMT May 3, 2010
holiday market
Talking about a holiday market!!!

nyc ws 17:36 GMT May 3, 2010
Euro May Get Boost; "Entire World Must Be Short"

Hasn't that been the risk for a couple of months?

GVI Forex Blog 17:31 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   
Price action on EUR/GBP, a daily chart of which is shown, has consolidated within a slightly bullish consolidation that has taken the form of an inverted flag pattern.

Chart of the Day - 5/03/2010 – EUR/GBP

Syd 17:28 GMT May 3, 2010
Euro May Get Boost; "Entire World Must Be Short"
Greek rescue fails to rescue the single currency. The market is possibly questioning "the moral hazard involved and the size of other potential bailouts should Portugal and especially Spain need such a rescue as well," says John Hardy at censored Bank. However, help may be at hand as euro selling may have reached a climax in the short term. adds Hardy. Says this is simply because the entire world must be short EUR by now. "It's not a case of 'we like euro', it's a case of 'it's amazing how much everyone hates the euro and how short the market has gotten'," Hardy says.

GVI Forex Blog 16:43 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   
Germany agrees on Greek aid Japan closed for Golden Week holidays U.K. election too close to call? SNB intervention confirmed

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (3 May 2010)

Chicago sc 16:24 GMT May 3, 2010

Speaking for myself, I feel most comfortable trading with a big stop and going for a big move only on a large correction (150-200 pips).

Once we fallen this far I need a 50-100 pip correction and trade with a close stop and go for fewer pips.

Miami JN 16:21 GMT May 3, 2010

correction 1 pip

Miami JN 16:16 GMT May 3, 2010

I am taking a 2 pip profit at 1,3191 and will reassess later on.

Miami JN 13:44 GMT May 3, 2010
eurusd : Reply
Edit Delete

Entry: 1.3190 Target: 1.3250+ Stop: 1.3145

I am debating whether to toss in a bid above or below 1.32.

Tampa DPT 16:01 GMT May 3, 2010

Entry: Target: Stop:


I think its a sell too, But I don't know when to enter??


Boston RS 15:48 GMT May 3, 2010
I had a late start today and scanning the board I do not see any euro sell calls. It feels like a buyers strike once it moved below 1.32 but it looks (from charts) like there may be some buying interest around 1.3150 fwiw

Chicago sc 15:48 GMT May 3, 2010

Entry: Target: Stop:

Profits triggered at 1.3200. Wish I had not leveraged down, but you never do enough when you are right and too much when you are wrong. EURUSD is a perpetual sale, but entry levels are critical. Will be looking to sell another significant bounce. Back later!

NYC ET 15:33 GMT May 3, 2010
It is hard to find the correlations today with firmer equities.

GVI Forex Blog 15:28 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   
The FX market remained quiet during the NY morning as traders continued to be fixated on the European peripheral situation. German Chancellor Merkel stated that that

Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

GVI Forex Blog 14:57 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   
May 3 ( Again there was a strong consensus on the outlook on where the EURUSD will close on Friday (May 7) in Europe. Responses remain bearish on the pair, with the vast majority looking for a close between 1.3100 and 1.3300. Virtually no one saw it higher

SNAP GVI Forex Professional Trader Forex Survey Results- 3 May 2010

GVI Forex Blog 14:50 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   
UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Tuesday will see a holiday in Japan. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike its cash rate target early by 25bp to 4.50%. In Europe, U.K. manufacturing PMI data are due. Eurozone PPI data are also awaited. In North America, U.S. Pending Homes Sales, Factory Orders and API data are awaited.

GVI Forex- Data Outlook for May 4, 2010

GVI Forex john 14:45 GMT May 3, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

May 3 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Tuesday will see a holiday in Japan. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike its cash rate target early by 25bp to 4.50%. In Europe, U.K. manufacturing PMI data are due. Eurozone PPI data are also awaited. In North America, U.S. Pending Homes Sales, Factory Orders and API data are awaited.













RBA (4.25%)










Mar PPI mm





Mar PPI yy





Mar Pnd Homes





Mar Factory Ords





API Energy



Mtl JP 14:45 GMT May 3, 2010
yes... "Clearly, the U.S. Dollar is stronger against the Euro and British Pound this morning"... maybe because market has put out of s/term sight that "UK National Debt - how Britain owes over £900 billion"

seems just a game of timing... like that old carnival game of whack-a-mole

GVI Forex Blog 14:41 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   

Greece/EU Aid Package Fails to Calm Investors

GVI Forex john 14:22 GMT May 3, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

U.S.manufacturing PMI very strong. Close to as high as it ever gets.

nyc 14:02 GMT May 3, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Solid ISM PMI 60.4, new orders, employment, prices up, inventories down

GVI Forex john 13:47 GMT May 3, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Data @ 14:00 GMT

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

Been Running at a strong level and expected to remain so.

Most major economies have purchasing managers indices (PMI) released monthly. They are compiled by various organizations. Some focus on the manufacturing sector while others measure the service sector. They are a very current measure of the economic health of the manufacturing or services sector. The PMI indices are usually based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment.

A PMI of greater than 50 represents expansion, compared to the previous month. A reading under 50 represents a contraction, while a reading at 50 indicates no change.

We find the PMI indices to be useful predictors of future economic activity.

Miami JN 13:44 GMT May 3, 2010

Entry: 1.3190 Target: 1.3250+ Stop: 1.3145

I am debating whether to toss in a bid above or below 1.32.

GVI Forex Blog 13:11 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   
Our Demagogue of the Year Award goes to Mr. Warren Buffet

“Good” news bad price action: Par or bust clearly in play

HK [email protected] 13:02 GMT May 3, 2010
Entry: NOW Target: 94.00 Stop: stop-94.65&Reverse to 95


GVI Forex Blog 12:59 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   
This week’s UK calendar is dominated by Thursday’s General Election. As we note in this week’s commentary, gilt yields and the pound have so far remained broadly unaffected by the heightened prospect of a hung parliament. This is presumably on the perception that such an outcome could result in a stronger cross-party consensus on the need to tackle the budget deficit.

Economics Weekly - What impact will the UK Election have on FX and bond markets? Weekly economic data preview - Financial markets to focus on details of Greek rescue package

GVI Forex john 12:48 GMT May 3, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Tame core PCE

HK [email protected] 12:28 GMT May 3, 2010
Lack of confidence is the motto for the time.

Risk? Or maybe a bull trap.

nyc ws 12:26 GMT May 3, 2010
Lack of confidence is the motto for the time.

jpy crosses over past hour arguing in favor of risk

HK [email protected] 12:23 GMT May 3, 2010
Lack of confidence is the motto for the time.
The lack of confidence is reflected in the price of gold.

Not sure the DOW will end higher than the opening.

nyc ws 11:57 GMT May 3, 2010
US stocks are set to open firmer and probably why usdjpy has moved up.

GVI Forex Blog 11:50 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   

FX Thoughts for the day : 03-May-2010 - 1148 GMT

HK [email protected] 11:46 GMT May 3, 2010
Entry: NOW Target: 94.5 Stop: 93.15


GVI Forex Blog 11:19 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   
Australian traders anticipate the publication of the monthly interest rate statement

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 03/05/2010

GVI Forex Blog 11:05 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   
The euro fell, erasing initial gains on Monday made after European countries agreed to a 110 billion euro aid package to Greece at the weekend, on concerns about the plan and fiscal problems in the euro zone.

FOREX NEWS - Euro falls as concerns grow on Greek aid plan

Melbourne Qindex 10:29 GMT May 3, 2010
GBP/AUD : Critical Support 1.5900
GBP/AUD : Critical Support 1.5900

The odds are good that the market will resume its downward trending momentum and will penetrate through the barrier at 1.6279 // 1.6314. Eventually it will challenge the supporting strength of the barrier at 1.5811 // 1.5977. A critical supporting point is positioning at 1.5900. Basically the market is working on the barrier at 1.5977 // 1.6775.

GVI Forex Blog 10:15 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   
Quiet European morning with dealers noting almost as many countries out as were in today. The currency markets experienced narrow trading ranges asa result of the thin conditions. EUR/USD dealers noted that the CTFC futures showing record Euro shorts

European market update: ECB suspended the minimum rating threshold on Greek debt

GVI Forex john 09:55 GMT May 3, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Swiss PMI remains very strong

GVI Forex john 09:55 GMT May 3, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Earlier: Flash EZ mfg unrevised

Syd 09:55 GMT May 3, 2010
Shorting the Euro
Euan McCreadie, senior corporate dealer with OzForex, explains why traders should be shorting the euro in the short term. He shares his outlook on the single-currency and the pound ahead of the election this week, with CNBC's Oriel Morrison.

The Swiss National Bank Monday declined to comment on speculation it is intervening in the foreign exchange market to stabilize the Swiss franc against the euro.
"We don't comment on market rumors," an SNB spokesman said.

GVI Forex Blog 09:48 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   
10:00 GMT- May 3 ( A Monday holiday in many centers today has probably been a godsend for many as it has given markets a chance to digest the Greek bailout plan today. The plan is for $146 bln over the next three years from the EU and IMF and a severe domestic austerity plan domestically.

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Active Partial Holiday Session

Gen dk 09:43 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex john 09:43 GMT May 3, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

The Daily Forex View

Active Partial Holiday Session

10:00 GMT- May 3 ( A Monday holiday in many centers today has probably been a godsend for many as it has given markets a chance to digest the Greek bailout plan today.


GVI Forex Jay 09:41 GMT May 3, 2010
Volunteers Wanted
We need a few volunteers to test out a new feature on Global-View. If you would like to help out and give us feedback, send me an EMAIL

Melbourne Qindex 08:44 GMT May 3, 2010
GBP/CAD : Critical Resistance 1.5549
GBP/CAD : Critical Resistance 1.5549

The market is under pressure when it is below a resistant range at 1.5525 // 1.5549. The odds are good that the market will tackle the supporting strength at 1.5231 // 1.5359.

SF amc fx 08:27 GMT May 3, 2010

EUR-GBP -waves

PAR 07:10 GMT May 3, 2010
GM - Ponzi - Transparancy
Repaying Taxpayers With Their Own Cash

Taxpayers are naturally eager for news about bailout repayments. But what neither G.M. nor the Treasury disclosed was that the company simply used other funds held by the Treasury to pay off its original loan.

Neil M. Barofsky, the inspector general overseeing the troubled asset program, revealed this detail when he spoke before the Senate Finance Committee on April 20.

“So it’s good news in that they’re reducing their debt,” Mr. Barofsky said of G.M. But he went on to note that G.M. was using other taxpayer money to make the loan repayment, according to the transcript of his testimony.

Armed with this information, Mr. Grassley fired off a letter to Mr. Geithner on April 22, asking for details of the transaction. “I am concerned ... that this announcement is not what it seems,” he wrote. “In fact, it appears to be nothing more than an elaborate TARP money shuffle.”

Mr. Grassley heard back from the Treasury last Tuesday. Herbert M. Allison Jr., assistant secretary for financial stability, confirmed that the money G.M. used to repay its bailout loan had come from a taxpayer-financed escrow account held for the automaker at the Treasury.

Emphasizing that the cash in the account was “the property of G.M.,” Mr. Allison said that the department had approved the company’s use of the money to retire the original debt because it was “consistent with Treasury’s goal of recovering funds for the taxpayer and exiting TARP investments as soon as practicable.”

It’s certainly understandable that G.M. would want to spin its repayment as proof of improving operations. But Mr. Grassley said he was troubled that the Treasury went along with the public relations campaign and didn’t spell out how the loan was retired.

“The public would know nothing about the TARP escrow money being the source of the supposed repayment from simply watching G.M.’s TV commercials or reading Treasury’s press release,” Mr. Grassley said in a speech on the Senate floor last Wednesday, saying that “many billions” of federal dollars remained invested in G.M.

“Much of it will never be repaid,” Mr. Grassley added. “The Congressional Budget Office estimates that taxpayers will lose around $30 billion on G.M.”

(Taxpayers still own $2.1 billion in preferred stock of G.M. and almost 61 percent of its common equity.)

Greg Martin, a G.M. spokesman, said the company had made no misrepresentations about its repayment. “The bottom line is, our strong business performance has put us in the position that we don’t need these funds,” he said, referring to the cash in the escrow account. “G.M. is performing much better than anyone expected and that does represent a significant milestone for the company.”

And Ron Bloom, senior adviser to Mr. Geithner, bristled at Mr. Grassley’s criticism. “The Treasury Department has tried to be as straight as humanly possible,” he said in an interview. “We have never not been clear about exactly what we paid, exactly the terms of the investment. I’m finding it hard to find anyone obfuscating about this.”

Of course, there is much joy in Mudville when a recipient of government aid repays its obligations. And it is also natural that the administration is keenly interested in reassuring taxpayers that losses on their bailout billions will be smaller than expected. Still, employing spin and selective disclosure is no way to raise taxpayers’ trust in our nation’s leadership.

In an interview, Mr. Grassley said the Treasury had stopped “denying” that G.M. used federal funds to repay its TARP loan, but the fact that Treasury hadn’t been upfront about it still troubled him.

“It emphasizes how misleading Treasury was and how misleading G.M. is as well,” said Mr. Grassley. “I hope Treasury learns its lesson, and that is: Tell it like it is, and if you tell it like it is you don’t get egg on your face.”

Syd 07:04 GMT May 3, 2010
German FinMin: Doesn’t expect Greece will need any further help beyond aid agreed at weekend – p
German FinMin: Doesn’t expect Greece will need any further help beyond aid agreed at weekend – paper
Wolfgang Schauble in an interview with daily Bild says “I am confident the German taxpayer will not face any loss if the programme is implemented systematically” adding “it is to be expected that Greece will not need any further help.”

Syd 07:03 GMT May 3, 2010
Australian Exporters, Importers Expect Higher Australian Dollar in 2010 -CBA
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--A survey of Australian exporters and importers shows an expectation the local currency will be higher by the end of the year, according to a survey commissioned by the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

The CBA Aussie Dollar Barometer tracks medium-sized importers and exporters' exposure to the Australian dollar, their expectations for the currency and their hedging plans.

The first release of the quarterly Barometer on Friday shows 74.3% of importers and 73.5% of exporters expect the Australian dollar to be higher by the end of 2010. Importers expect a move toward US$0.9460 by year end, while exporters expect it rise to US$0.9520.

Syd 06:48 GMT May 3, 2010
ECB Suspends Rating Rules For Greek Government Bonds
The European Central Bank said Monday it has decided to suspend the minimum credit rating threshold for collateral eligibility requirements for Greek sovereign debt. The announcement follows the agreement of a historic EUR105 billion rescue package for Greece at the weekend by the International Monetary Fund and Greece's partners in the euro zone. As a result, the ECB will continue to accept as collateral all new and outstanding bonds issued or guaranteed by the Greek government. The main immediate consequence of the ECB's action is to guarantee that Greek banks, which are the largest holders of Greek government debt, can continue to borrow from the ECB's credit windows.

Hong Kong 06:29 GMT May 3, 2010
AUD/USD Intra-day signals by AceTrader
AUD/USD: 0.9233

Last Update At 03 May 2010 04:25 GMT

Despite aud's strg recovery fm 0.9210 (AUS), sub
sequent retreat after meeting renewed selling at
0.9264 suggests decline fm Friday's 0.9325 high to
retrace last week's upmove fm 0.9135 low remains in
force n another fall to 0.9220 is seen.

Trade fm short side with stop abv 0.9264, break
wud suggest an intra-day low is made, risk 0.9280.

Range Forecast
0.9220 / 0.9245

R: 0.9264/0.9280/0.9315
S: 0.9210/0.9201/0.9170

SF amc fx 05:43 GMT May 3, 2010
EUR-USD -resistance at 1.3250

Lahore FM 05:32 GMT May 3, 2010
Trade Ideas

yes,that's the slope!

jkt-aye 05:30 GMT May 3, 2010
Trade Ideas

Entry: Target: Stop:

Is it ???

Lahore FM 05:25 GMT May 3, 2010
Trade Ideas

makassar alimin 02:52

cheers alimin dear!

Lahore FM 05:20 GMT May 3, 2010

Generally lower.better entries short around 1.3270/80.

singapore sara 05:14 GMT May 3, 2010
where to eur/usd heading today? anyone can help me?

HK [email protected] 04:30 GMT May 3, 2010

I would really like to know how the Gov. reaches 2.9% inflation y/y,

Syd 04:24 GMT May 3, 2010
HK [email protected] 03:50 what the censored are you talking about ??

HK [email protected] 03:50 GMT May 3, 2010
Home prices surge record 20%

Syd 02:34 GMT May 3, 2010

That is the a common joke worldwide.

House prices surged 20%, which may be even more, and inflation increased only 2.9%.

I think if one talks that loud in a pub, someone may punch him in the face.

GVI Forex Blog 03:48 GMT May 3, 2010 Reply   

Morning Briefing : 03-May-2010 - 0346 GMT

makassar alimin 02:52 GMT May 3, 2010
Trade Ideas

FM, I like that idea of going short eurgbp! It certainly struggles to get above 0.87, followed you going short this one

SG PT 02:51 GMT May 3, 2010
2010.05.02 18:50: CHINA RAISED RESERVE REQUIREMENT on May Day Weekend by 50-bps to 17%, making its third tightening of the year. The last tightening was announced on February 19, on the eve of the Lunar Year Holiday. Although most Asian markets are closed for May Day holiday, JPY did spike higher across the board before later stabilizing. With Europe set to close on Monday, US markets will show their own reaction to the EU and China moves. 135 bln is the latest figure of the emergency aid in loans to Greece over 3 years, 80 bln of which will be given by Eurozone nations and the remaining 55 bln from the IMF. But markets are focusing on whether Greece can survive the severe austerity policies imposed on it (8% cut in public sector salaries, 2% rise in VAT to 23%. EURUSD extended bounce to $1.3360, but $1.3380 remains the interim ceiling. USDJPY may add to gains towards 94.50 but AUDJPY recovery seen capped at 87.30 before gradual retreat towards 85.50s.

makassar alimin 02:39 GMT May 3, 2010
euro looks pretty sick at the moment, but I am aware also that specs are increasing their short positions, theme is negative nonetheless

Syd 02:34 GMT May 3, 2010
Home prices surge record 20%
Capital city home prices rose by a record 20 per cent in the year to the end of March, giving the Reserve Bank more reason to lift interest rates tomorrow.
TD Securities/Melbourne Institute monthly inflation gauge, released today, showed that in the year to April, inflation increased 2.9 per cent - the most in 14 months. That tally also bumps up against the RBA's preferred maximum of 3 per cent.

tokyo rana 02:31 GMT May 3, 2010
happy trade,
Entry: 1.533 Target: 1.45 to 1.35 Stop: 1.56

happy trade,

tokyo rana 02:16 GMT May 3, 2010
happy trade,
Entry: 144.050 Target: open Stop: open

gbpusd short still hold...maybe later short cadjpy and audjpy.happy trade,

tokyo rana 02:15 GMT May 3, 2010
Entry: 125.3 Target: open Stop: open

happy trade,

tokyo rana 02:08 GMT May 3, 2010
Entry: 94.120 Target: open Stop: open

hello to all,
today jpy bad start but good come back after greek news...
if any one have idea about usdjpy gbpjpy and eurjpy please post it...
im shorting all...
happy trading...
best regards

Syd 01:58 GMT May 3, 2010
Aussie Home Prices Jump Ups RBA Hike Odds - ICAP
4.8% jump in Australian house prices in 1Q adds to case RBA must hike cash rate for 6th time in 7 meetings tomorrow, says ICAP Senior Economist Adam Carr. Notes a 20% annual house price increase would be a "terrible thing for the economy", with a housing bubble likely. Also, while RBA rate hikes help, it's not enough; "the problem is we have a housing shortage in Australia. We need to urgently increase the supply of housing, the consequences of not doing so will be house prices rising higher and the RBA doing the only thing it can and hiking rates.

Syd 01:52 GMT May 3, 2010
Australia Q1 house price index +4.8% QoY 20% YoY rise.
Australia Q1 house price index +4.8% QoY 20% YoY rise. Australian 1Q house prices jump of 4.8% will surely add pressure on RBA policy makers to get rates back to normal levels sooner rather than later.

Melbourne Qindex 01:34 GMT May 3, 2010
USDX : Critical Support 81.82
USDX : Critical Support 81.82

The market is stable when it is consolidating within the weekly cycle matrix system at 82.57 - 84.23 - 84.52. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is rejected from the barrier at 82.70 // 84.24.

USDX : Monthly Cycle Charts

Syd 01:18 GMT May 3, 2010
Aussie Manufacturing Shows Few Signs Of Pain
Australian manufacturers showing no signs of pain from RBA's rate hikes; if anything, they appear able to cope with more tightening should RBA choose. April's Australian Industry Group-PriceWaterHouse Coopers PMI index jumps 9.3 points to 59.8, highest level since May 2002. Buoyant manufacturing comes alongside TD Securities inflation gauge hinting price pressures remain. Index rose 0.4% in April on month. With official inflation readings higher than expected, RBA may have little choice but to adjust policy again soon. Board meets Tuesday.

Hong Kong 00:59 GMT May 3, 2010
Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Market Review - 30/04/2010 22:14GMT

Euro rises on hopes of Greek aid package announcement

The euro extended its previous day's advance against the dollar on Friday on expectation that debt-strapped Greece might reach an agreement on its budget cuts and would receive a potential $159 billion in financial assistance.

The single currency traded sideways in Asian session after Thursday's rebound to 1.3279, renewed buying at 1.3225 lifted price and the pair quickly climbed above 1.3279 at European opening. Intra-day buying gathered momentum partly on short-covering, euro subsequently rallied to as high as 1.3343 in New York before dipping briefly to 1.3255 but price rebounded on news EU finance ministers were summoned to attend a special meeting on Sunday, market speculated details of an aid package for Greece will be announced this weekend.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback moved narrowly in Asia initially but then rallied to 94.59 in European afternoon after triggering stops above 94.35 and 94.45 together with active cross selling in yen. However, the pair pared all early gains later and ended the day down 0.1% from the previous close after a government report showed the U.S. economy grew at a slightly slower-than-expected pace in the first quarter. Earlier in Asian mid-day, Bank of Japan announced it had kept its overnight call rate unchanged at 0.10%. The statement of BOJ also indicated its policy board instructed staff to examine steps to support private banks on fund supplies, this would leave open the possibility that the BOJ may take steps to further bring down TIBOR, an interest rate banks use to set lending rates on corporate loans.

The British pound extended its previous day's short-covering rally as short-term speculators bought sterling after latest election poll results showed the opposition Conservative party had a lead after Thursday's 3rd and final televised election debate between the 3 main parties, consensus showed Tories' David Cameron put on the best performance over the Liberal Democrats' Nick Clegg and Labour's Gordon Brown. Cable rose to 1.5366 in Australia before retreating in tandem with euro to 1.5316 in Asia but renewed buying at European opening pushed price to an intra-day high of 1.5390, however, when buying fizzled out, sterling retreated sharply in New York trading to 1.5253 as short-term speculators squared their long positions ahead of a 3 day long weekend.

On the economic front, U.S. Q1 GDP rose by 3.2% (economists' forecast was 3.4%) whilst Q1 PCE price index increased by 1.5% versus the expectation of 1.6%. University of Michigan Survey's of Consumers' final April consumer sentiment fell to 72.2 (versus forecast of 71.0) from 73.6 in the March final reading. However, Chicago PMI rose in April to 63.8 (versus consensus 60.0 and 58.8 in March), which is the highest since April 2005. The eurozone March unemployment was 10.0% as widely expected whilst the April inflation estimated at 1.5% y/y versus 1.4% in March.

In other news, Switzerland’s central bank President Philipp Hildebrand stated the central bank would counter any 'excessive' appreciation of the franc against the euro, citing the debt woes across the EU zone prompted investors to shift their money into the Swiss franc.

Economic data to be released next week include: Financial markets in Japan and U.K. will be closed on Monday. Australia House price index, Swiss PMI, Germany Manufacturing PMI, EU Manufacturing PMI , U.S. PCE index, Personal income and ISM manufacturing are out on Monday, Australia RBA rate decision, Germany Retail sales, U.K. Manufacturing PMI, EU PPI , U.S. Durable goods, Pending home sales and Consumer confidence on Tuesday, U.K. N'wide Consumer Confidence, Germany Services PMI , EU Services PMI, U.K. PMI construction and U.S. ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday. New Zealand Unemployment, Australia Retail sales, Australia Trade balance , Swiss CPI , U.K. Services PMI , Germany Factory orders, EU ECB rate decision, U.S. Jobless claims, Productivity, Canada Ivey PMI and Building permits on Thursday. Swiss Jobless rate,Retail sales, Retail sales, Germany Industrial production, Canada Unemployment rate, U.S. Non-farm payrolls and Unemployment rate on Friday.

Lahore FM 00:42 GMT May 3, 2010
Trade Ideas

Sell Crude
Entry: 86.45 Target: 78.00 Stop: 87.10

resold.had minus 1.50 usd earlier on a sell from 85.05.

Syd 00:12 GMT May 3, 2010
Australian markets to digest Monday Government tax reforms announced Sunday. John Kyriakopoulos, head of FX strategy at NAB says new 40% tax on mining profits will pay for a cut in company tax rate for all other businesses to 28%. Says keep an eye on stock prices of Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton for leads on the AUD. Kyriakopoulos suggests taking step back to realise that reason Australia can introduce these tax reforms is because of strong economy, China-driven commodity boom and sound public finances. Adds, most large Western economies will be raising taxes in coming years which will harm growth prospects. Also, an RBA rate hike on Tuesday and signal that rates will need to rise to be above average/normal levels is potential catalyst to stronger AUD, this week.

Lahore FM 00:06 GMT May 3, 2010
Trade Ideas

2nd trade is audjpy short

Lahore FM 00:01 GMT May 3, 2010
Trade Ideas

Entry: 87.08 Target: 82.00 Stop: 88.10

sold this as 2nd trade of the month of May.

i have taken a loss of about 60 pips on selling it once on friday.


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