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Forex Forum Archive for 05/09/2010

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
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KL KL 23:58 GMT May 9, 2010
Early Bird Short Euro for Scalp Ninja

ok long again eurusd 1.2860....lets hope this one bear fruits....take it to 1.2890...otherwise stops near 1.2850....luckily my gold shorts from 1207 working covered 1/2 1199

risking 10 to make 10 100 times a day is trading ninja have to focus on indices....too many to long today for some relief rally!!

Syd 23:57 GMT May 9, 2010
WSJ: Levin Aims To Ban Banks From Betting Against Customers
wsj Lawmakers are considering legislation that would ban investment banks from betting against their customers in many circumstances, in a further ripple effect for Wall Street from Goldman Sachs's troubles.

Beijing Laowen 23:46 GMT May 9, 2010

Simply put, do not trade based on the rumours. rana's excellent trades were mostly based on his reading of the charts.

vienna cla 23:26 GMT May 9, 2010

tokyo rana: :-) ok got it

tokyo rana 23:22 GMT May 9, 2010

vienna cla,simly imean idid not said BOJ dead forever they will come possible for time being....ihope u understand..happy trade,

tokyo rana 23:20 GMT May 9, 2010

vienna cla,that was for last week BOJ dead...not this week...
isaid untill monday forget BOJ,last week they did not do anything....

now already ithink we seen action...

happy trade,

Syd 23:11 GMT May 9, 2010
DJ MARKET TALK: With Europe Acting As Mask, Buy AUD/USD - NAB
With all the noise out of Europe masking the micro factors in Australia, NAB currency strategist John Kyriakopoulos says time is right to buy AUD/USD. "In the absence of the European sovereign debt crisis we would have seen Australian short-dated bond yields rising sharply in response to the RBA forecasting inflation at 3% in two years' time," says strategist. But instead of rising, bond yields are down sharply since last week, pushing AUD lower as well. "As such, AUD/USD below our estimate of the new average rate at 0.9000 provides an opportunity to buy it at slightly 'cheap' levels on a medium-term horizon," says Kyriakopoulos. AUD/USD recently at 0.8952, down from 0.9016 at weekend's high.

vienna cla 23:10 GMT May 9, 2010

tokyo rana: didn`t you say last week BOJ is dead?? .... pls clarify

tokyo rana 23:06 GMT May 9, 2010

Today careful about BOJ,

maybe again move nov dec 2009....
but 138 139 i think very strong res usdjpy 93.....
Happy trade,

tokyo rana 22:57 GMT May 9, 2010

lkwd jj,i closed shorts im long.....
later think about short...
happy trade,

lkwd jj 22:43 GMT May 9, 2010
RANA I'm short here . what do you see on usdjpy? be back later to see your response.

KL KL 22:35 GMT May 9, 2010
Early Bird Short Euro for Scalp Ninja

ok long now eurusd 1.2889 sl 79 for another drive up to short fear only 10 cheap pips

HK [email protected] 22:34 GMT May 9, 2010
Early Asia -Pacific robbers

Looks like early Asia-Pacific robbers pretending to be ECB secret agents driving the markets on short covering.

San Fran wb 22:32 GMT May 9, 2010
Entry: Target: Stop:

Any suggestions on how to approach trading this week?

Tallinn viies 22:28 GMT May 9, 2010
every sunday morning euro repeats same pattern - open with a cap then huge sell off till second half of the weak and friday bit back from extreme levels.
so far was high at 1,2949.
do not have a strong opinion here what to do but seems selling better idea as there is also 38% retracement level at 1,2965

Syd 22:12 GMT May 9, 2010
Shadow foreign secretary William Hague emerged from the Cabinet Office
Conservative - Liberal Democrat talks 'positive' but no deal yet
Coalition talks between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats have been described as "positive and productive", but no deal has been struck so far.
Shadow foreign secretary William Hague emerged from the Cabinet Office to say that they would be briefing their respective leaders on what he described as "very positive and productive" negotiations following Thursday's election.

Syd 22:09 GMT May 9, 2010
AUD/USD To Probe Higher On EU Stability Fund - Westpac
AUD/USD sharply higher in early trading as markets respond to news EU is weighing the creation of a EUR600 billion stability fund. Jonathan Cavenagh, FX strategist at Westpac, says AUD/USD will push toward 0.9100 in Asia session; latest 0.9001, up 1.4% since close of New York trading Friday. Cavenagh says local issues to take a back seat to evolving European response to Greek debt crisis.

KL KL 22:05 GMT May 9, 2010
Early Bird Short Euro for Scalp Ninja

ha ha ha ...covering all here this time and reshort above 1.2940...out 1.2895.... this is good trading time!!...Very Good infact...wake up everybody can long and short...lots of nervous nellies both ends now....

KL KL 21:51 GMT May 9, 2010
Early Bird Short Euro for Scalp Ninja

short again 1.2938 sl 1.2949 take the 10-30 pips on offer

Mtl JP 21:51 GMT May 9, 2010
EUR440B May Come From Euro-Zone Govts; EUR60B From EU Budget-Source

[email protected] nothing is too expensive , not when it comes to "This is a important moment" for Europe, stressed France's finance minister Christine Lagarde, with Austria's Josef Proll labelling it "the biggest challenge since the euro's creation."
diplomats and politicians just LOVE a good challenge, dont ya' know ?

Lahore FM 21:49 GMT May 9, 2010
Trade Ideas

Entry: 1.0160 long order Target: 1.0360 Stop: none

long order waiting at 1.0160.we are going to have some extreme market action it seems.

HK [email protected] 21:48 GMT May 9, 2010
EUR440B May Come From Euro-Zone Govts; EUR60B From EU Budget-Source

Even a great economy like Germany is indebted, so where will the Euro zone get the money from?

Maybe by printing more Euro, thus diluting the value anyway.

Why not create an emergency fund of several trillions of Euro, anyway the proposed 500B do not exist too, and is only a promise to pay to the delinquents, over several years.

The problem seems that the EU ministers concentrate too much on saving their banks and hitting Specs., rather than saving the Euro economy.

Syd 21:38 GMT May 9, 2010
Avoiding renewed new global worries means higher rates
AUSTRALIA would likely skirt a renewed slowdown in the global economy should problems in Europe spill over to the rest of the world, but that means interest rates will continue to climb. Respected independent forecaster Access Economics expects homebuyers will face a further three interest rate rises this year that would take the official cash rate to 5.25 per cent.

EGYPTIAN tycoon Mohamed al Fayed sold London department store Harrods to a buyer thought to be part of the Qatari royal family, Sky News reports

G20 teleconference to start in 30 minutes
Finance officials from the G20 nations will have a teleconference starting in 30 minutes over issues relating to Greece and the EU crisis management mechanism

Syd 21:29 GMT May 9, 2010
EUR440B May Come From Euro-Zone Govts; EUR60B From EU Budget-Source
European Union finance ministers are talking about creating a EUR600 billion fund to ensure stability in the 16-state euro zone, an EU diplomat said Sunday.

EU finance ministers, meeting in Brussels since 1300 GMT, are racing to keep the euro-zone's debt crisis from deepening when financial markets open on Monday.

The EUR600 billion fund still hasn't been agreed to and its size could change in a final pact, the diplomat said. According to current discussions, EUR440 billion for the fund would come from euro-zone governments and EUR60 billion would come from surplus funds in the EU budget. This part of the fund would resemble the bloc's existing EUR50 billion balance-of-payments facility for countries outside the euro-zone, the diplomat said.

The EU ministers want the International Monetary Fund to contribute a further EUR100 billion to this regional stability fund, according to the diplomat.

Syd 21:28 GMT May 9, 2010
2nd UPDATE: IMF Approves EUR30 Bln Loan For Greek Economic Crisis
The International Monetary Fund on Sunday approved a three-year, EUR30 billion loan to help pull Greece out of an economic quagmire.

The unprecedented IMF loan, the largest financial commitment the institution has ever made to a single country, is part of a EUR110 billion IMF/European Union package that includes conditions requiring Athens to tighten its fiscal belt and raise taxes.

Approval of the loan comes as European finance ministers and central bankers are discussing expanding an emergency credit facility for European countries. An IMF official said the institution was prepared to support the stabilization fund, but declined to elaborate.

KL KL 21:12 GMT May 9, 2010
Early Bird Short Euro for Scalp Ninja

Well I am happy to cover 2/3 euro short here 1.2877...leave rest at 1.29 and reshort again above problem fighting this one from the short side. many will wake up what, how, the time they digest maybe euro need to move higher gorund to short

London Red 21:00 GMT May 9, 2010
Anything that opens 1.5 big figs higher is going to be chased thats no surprise...the fact that there is a record short position in the euro may magnify uptick, so we have 1.30 and 1.31 as possible levels without affecting the technical downtrend in the slightest. So just be aware when trying to top pick this one...euro will go lower sooner or later but possibly today/tomorrow (depending on your location)is not the today to make a stand...

KL KL 20:56 GMT May 9, 2010
Early Bird Short Euro for Scalp Ninja
Not sure the spike...but i am in Short 1.2915 after covering previous long...SAR....Pity those without stop loss in these early hours....150 pips spike on EU Cheap talk of 500 Billion EU rescue fund to plug potential 2.1 Trillion debt in the lie and that is why one has to play the lie...Long and short.... so early catch worm....LOL

Now thingking of shorting GOLD up the other down....

San Diego LC 20:56 GMT May 9, 2010
is there a AUD/USD bid at 0.9010?

my pleasure

tokyo ginko 20:54 GMT May 9, 2010
is there a AUD/USD bid at 0.9010?

thank you

San Diego LC 20:52 GMT May 9, 2010
is there a AUD/USD bid at 0.9010?

on my platform is live and tradeable at 90.06 atm....

tokyo ginko 20:51 GMT May 9, 2010
is there a AUD/USD bid at 0.9010?
is that bid good?

HK [email protected] 20:44 GMT May 9, 2010
Germany Calls For EUR500 Billion Crisis Fund -Diplomat

BRUSSELS (AFP)--Germany on Sunday proposed the setting up of an unprecedented 500 billion-euro ($645 billion) crisis fund, with IMF involvement, an EU diplomatic source said.

a) Where the money will come from?

b) The PIIGS country loans from banks as I read are about 2.8T$.
So in case of serious crisis that said amount may not be enough.

Looks like Germany+IMF+USA like altogether to go down the tube with other EU countries

Syd 20:28 GMT May 9, 2010
Germany Calls For EUR500 Billion Crisis Fund -Diplomat
BRUSSELS (AFP)--Germany on Sunday proposed the setting up of an unprecedented 500 billion-euro ($645 billion) crisis fund, with IMF involvement, an EU diplomatic source said.
"Germany put a proposal for a total of 500 billion euros on the table," the source said, which would be made available to any cash-strapped euro-zone nation.
The total would include 60 billion euros of loan funds from the European Commission coffers--a sum that has been discussed in recent days--as well as 440 billion euros that would come, if necessary, from members of the 16-nation euro zone and the International Monetary Fund.
The package would include "bilateral loans, loan guarantees and IMF credit lines," according to the diplomatic source.
If the plan were to be agreed to, as EU finance ministers held late-night talks in Brussels, the facility would be unprecedented.

dc CB 19:59 GMT May 9, 2010
from Murdock's NY rag, not his Wall Street Journal/Dow Jones highbrow pubs.
Federal agents have launched parallel criminal and civil probes of JPMorgan Chase and its trading activity in the precious metals market, The Post has learned.

The probes are centering on whether or not JPMorgan, a top derivatives holder in precious metals, acted improperly to depress the price of silver, sources said.

The Commodities Futures Trade Commission is looking into civil charges, and the Department of Justice's Antitrust Division is handling the criminal probe, according to sources, who did not wish to be identified due to the sensitive nature of the information.

The probes are far-ranging, with federal officials looking into JPMorgan's precious metals trades on the London Bullion Market Association's (LBMA) exchange, which is a physical delivery market, and the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex) for future paper derivative trades.

Read more: feds_probing_jpmorgan_trades_in_ gZzMvWBqOJpB55M7Rh9vwM#ixzz0nSq8VYVD

Syd 19:36 GMT May 9, 2010
Net long USD bets highest since euro launch in 1999

GVI Forex john 19:32 GMT May 9, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

EU ministers' statement by 2100 GMT - EU official

San Diego LC 19:23 GMT May 9, 2010
fx rates

...and I'm showing 1.4849 bid in GBPUSD...

Richmond Dennis 19:22 GMT May 9, 2010
fx rates

12838 here - high median at 12873

San Diego LC 19:12 GMT May 9, 2010
fx rates

My platform shows EURUSD at 1.2814 bid...

italy gie 19:10 GMT May 9, 2010

Entry: Target: Stop:

hello guys.hope u enjoy the weekend and now ,start the battle again .any idea about eurjpy.

SF LongView 18:56 GMT May 9, 2010
Speculators extend record bets against euro
Speculators extend record bets against euro

Speculators have ramped up their bets against the euro to fresh record levels as concerns over contagion from the Greek debt crisis threaten the very existence of the single currency.

Positioning data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, often used as a proxy for hedge fund activity, showed speculators increased their short positions in the euro to a record 103,400 contracts, or $16.8bn in the week ending May 4.

“The market is extremely one-sided, which increases the odds of a round of short-covering,” said Camilla Sutton at Scotia Capital. “However, developments to date leave us unable to to find a reason to buy the euro.”

Bets against the euro were likely to have been increased, given the sharp sell-off in the euro since May 4.

Tonbridge AL 18:10 GMT May 9, 2010

Click on the relevant link for each video to view next week's setup.


USA ZEUS 17:34 GMT May 9, 2010

jkt-aye 09:22 GMT May 9, 2010

Nice chart jkt-aye. Profit target looks very Tom Demarkish.

Cheers! :-)

LA LA 17:21 GMT May 9, 2010
fx rates
If anyone sees the early fx rates in Aussie-NZ time please psot them.

tokyo rana 17:07 GMT May 9, 2010

gbpjpy possibly we wont even see above 138 again and just totally collapse through 118 down to 90 without a significant retrace...
mybe it will happen,,just like 2008...

if we lucky we will see 139 ..

but letse see,,and do watch it carefully
happy trade,

tokyo rana 16:18 GMT May 9, 2010

Entry: 136.32 Target: open Stop: 136

i have short position gbpjpy 136.32....
maybe iwill go long gbpjpy entry131 target open stop 129.5....
if break 130 than short on boounce ifeel it can break easly...
but most peoples shorting so maybe go other direction..
usdjpy 91.600 small position....
lets see wat happen next week...
idonot know markeet panic or not...
good luck.....
happy trade,

Saar KaL 15:48 GMT May 9, 2010
jpy : Reply
I have the sp500
want to go to 1070
over the next 18 hrs
1130 seems to be the level to short
maybe mkt panic

LA LA 15:51 GMT May 9, 2010
stop feast?
We have to see if there is a stop feast and gap when Aussie-NZ opens and before most of our platforms open for the week.

Saar KaL 15:48 GMT May 9, 2010

I have the sp500
want to go to 1070
over the next 18 hrs
1130 seems to be the level to short
maybe mkt panic

tokyo rana 15:46 GMT May 9, 2010

Saar KaL,idonot know also.....
maybe short maybe long....
only time will tell....
weekly monthly candle bullish daily bearish....
God only knows wat happen next sideline better option...happy trade,

tokyo rana 15:43 GMT May 9, 2010

no clear direction so maybe stay on sideline.....iwill be very careful trade with tight stops if trade,...happy trade,

Saar KaL 15:43 GMT May 9, 2010

could be right
i do not know
maybe the voliltilty effect Rana
we live...we learn
that's life i guess

tokyo rana 15:40 GMT May 9, 2010

Watch out with longs in long term, When US indices colapse that gonna happen maybe.

aj,ej,nj still above 2003 level

targets for current monthly trend are

nj below 35
ej below 75
aj below 35
uj arround 75

which give us targets for pairs like
an = parity
eu = parity
eg = parity
gu = 1.2 or parity (spike)

But only under one condition :
carry tade unwind part two just began.

vix support this view at this time....
happy trade,

tokyo rana 15:36 GMT May 9, 2010

Too many traders talking about gbpjpy going short,

that usually means: GO LONG....
happy trade,regards

tokyo rana 15:34 GMT May 9, 2010
selling the rebound

tokyo rana 15:34 GMT May 9, 2010
selling the rebound

Saar KaL,

this man is saying gbpjpy 150 160 soon so maybe im wrong......

Saar KaL 15:31 GMT May 9, 2010
selling the rebound
for the next 20 trade hrs
will short again

117.74 114.07
i think 110 is possible

1.2818 1.2609

maybe a bite more then that high
could see 1.2460

1.4950 1.4433
i think we'll see 1.4200

audusd seems wants to do major crash
from .8915 to .8600
too much for one day i think

137.5428 to 125.20
is what i got
maybe da action is not over yet..ha?

hk ooozmeeh 14:42 GMT May 9, 2010
.Britain says it will not back European bailout fund

GVI Forex john 14:27 GMT May 9, 2010
Greece - Us stock exchanges

PAR- Very unlikely imho. What happened on Thursday was a technical failure of the equity markets. BTW It was not "fat fingers".

As for Greek bonds, to say you want to bust a trade just because you don't like the price can't happen or the markets will close down.

PAR 13:52 GMT May 9, 2010
Greece - Us stock exchanges
Greek bond trades with yields above 10% should just be cancelled just like the Us stock exchanges cancelled stock trades at ridiculous prices. It makes no sense to borrow € 110 billion at 5% which will benefit investors who bought Greek bonds yielding between 10 and 20 % . This is surrealistic moral hazard.

GVI Forex john 13:44 GMT May 9, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Many headlines on the wires from the European Finance Ministers all of them seem to be blaming speculators. All pledging support for the euro. Don't question their commitment, even though they are blaming the messenger (the market). They can try to drive the EUR higher on the Asian open or just try to stabilize it. Stability in the Euro will not improve the creditworthiness of EZ sovereign bonds.

From a trading stand point look for wide ranges in active Asian markets early Monday.

tokyo ginko 12:42 GMT May 9, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

I assume it is according to Brussels' time which is now Sun 14:41

GVI Forex john 12:41 GMT May 9, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

RKG- thank you!

HK [email protected] 12:35 GMT May 9, 2010
From The Sunday Times May 9, 2010 Leaderless UK stokes crash fears

FEARS of a market slump mounted this weekend after British politicians failed to form a government and senior bankers warned that the eurozone crisis might cause bank lending to seize up.

European finance ministers are today expected to agree a financial support mechanism for ailing economies such as Greece, Portugal and Spain. Traders fear the scheme, to be announced tonight, will not be enough to reassure markets and there will be a repeat of last week’s chaotic trading. ....
Traders said markets were already spooked by the chaos in America on Thursday, when prices plunged crazily before recovering most of their losses. ....


Blore RKG 12:30 GMT May 9, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

John, i would assume its some 32 minutes from now and 212 minutes for the press briefing from now - Brussels (CEST 1428 now).

GVI Forex john 11:31 GMT May 9, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Can anyone help? I assume the times below are 13:00 and 16:00 GMT respectively. thats 2-1/2 and 5-1/2 hours from now respectively...

From Bloomberg:
European officials declined to disclose the size of the stabilization fund, to be made up of money borrowed by the EU’s central authorities with guarantees by national governments. Finance ministers will meet at about 3 p.m. in Brussels. A press briefing is scheduled for 6 p.m.

‘That’s Significant’

“When the markets re-open Monday, we will have in place a mechanism to defend the euro,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy said. “If you don’t think that’s significant, you haven’t been to many EU summits.” Sarkozy cancelled a planned trip to Moscow today to deal with the crisis.

GVI Forex john 11:23 GMT May 9, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Personal Opinions:
These markets are very hard for me. I'e never seen something like it. I am accustomed to currency crises triggered by high inflation excessive growth etc. They normally have been addressed by a currency devaluation, restrictive budgets, monetary squeeze etc. So a government tries to avoid the inevitable by forex intervention etc. and then finally has to deal with the root cause of their problems by slowing the economy down.

How is this situation different? We are already in a deflationary spiral and the traditional remedies won't work. The IMF only knows how to trigger an economic slowdown, but we are dealing with economies that are already weak. Traditional therapies are akin to the Medieval practice of bleeding the fever in a dying man. You slow down the economies of Greece, Spain, Portugal etc., and even more people will be thrown out of work and their budget problems will only get worse. Not only will revenues fall but the demands on the social safety-nets will increase. Additionally, there is an increased risk of social unrest. The few wealthy European countries lack the resources bail out all the rest. Furthermore a near-term bailout will not address long-term structural issues that must still be fixed.

The only obvious socially-acceptable solution for Greece, Spain etc. is a currency DEVALUATION. Plans to shore up the Euro over the weekend make absolutely no sense. European countries in Europe at risk need economic STIMULUS not more deflation.

Its not the speculators that are the problem. It is illogical for investors to hold onto Greek debt if inevitably they are going to suffer a haircut. It also makes no sense to hold onto eur if the common currency scheme inevitably is going to have

tokyo ginko 11:21 GMT May 9, 2010
EU Finance Chiefs Race to Ready Euro Stability Fund
"European Union finance ministers meet today to hammer out the details of an emergency fund to prevent a sovereign debt crisis from shattering confidence in the 11- year-old euro.."

any latest updates?

tokyo ginko 11:19 GMT May 9, 2010
Cramer: Don’t Buy Till Dow 9,000

Cramer also said to buy Bear Stearns, lol

HK [email protected] 10:55 GMT May 9, 2010
Cramer: Don’t Buy Till Dow 9,000

Cramer: Don’t Buy Till Dow 9,000

jkt-aye 09:22 GMT May 9, 2010

the crowd tend to be wrong ???

hk nt 04:56 GMT May 9, 2010

expect recovery than continuation of downtrend this week


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