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Forex Forum Archive for 05/15/2010

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Melbourne Qindex 23:39 GMT May 15, 2010
USD/CHF : Current Comments

Entry: Target: Stop:

USD/CHF : The odds are in favor of maintaining a long position when the market is able to trade above the critical resistant point at 1.1386.

Melbourne Qindex 23:37 GMT May 15, 2010
USD/CHF : Current Comments

Entry: Target: Stop:

USD/CHF : Critical Resistant Point 1.1386

Melbourne Qindex 23:30 GMT May 15, 2010
USD/CHF : Current Comments
Entry: Target: Stop:

USD/CHF : A supporting point is positioning at 1.1111 and the market is going to tackle the barrier at 1.1399 // 1.1835.

USD/CHF : Monthly Cycle Charts

GVI Forex Jay 21:59 GMT May 15, 2010
Weekly setup videos

Courtesy of Tornbridge Al

tokyo rana 18:29 GMT May 15, 2010

usdjpy next top cud be 94.500 this is also possible...
so simply say 94.500 to 97 next...
happy trade

tokyo rana 18:20 GMT May 15, 2010

Dear Cairo Hesham,
thanx for post..
jpy pair moving like nov 2009 to jan 2010 so donot hurry to short........
ithink usdjpy cannot go to res 101 this main res of long term down trend....maybe im wrong...
gbpjpy stay below 151 even stay below 146....

still in down....
history repeat as we bounce on friday....
happy trade,

Cairo Hesham 18:08 GMT May 15, 2010

To Rana: i agree with u. I am longing usd/jpy

tokyo rana 18:00 GMT May 15, 2010
Entry: 133 to 135 Target: 139.5 to 145 Stop: 132

iwill go long......

historical data saying still rise.....
any comment....
happy trade,

tokyo rana 17:58 GMT May 15, 2010
Entry: 92.50 Target: 96 to 97 Stop: open

any comment?
happy trade,

global-view careers 16:44 GMT May 15, 2010
careers and jobs
Reply leads
- in explaining market sentiment,
- to more trading ideas and
- trade management tactics.

You already are a member. Isn't it time you got more out of it - like possibly a new career or a new job ?

UK Jobs
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HK JC 15:07 GMT May 15, 2010
EUR 1.2777+
Who said 100% to reach 1.2777+ or even 1.2650 on Fri Nite.

Mtl JP 13:49 GMT May 15, 2010

john 12:32 - so does UK. and the US. and Japan. and China...

what is your bet (not wish): Orderly, kind and co-operative take turns round the robin we go


a wildly volitile Palio di Siena horse race ?

GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT May 15, 2010

When assessing the politics of forex, I think it is important to take off your traders hat and look at the markets from the point of view of a policy maker. Trichet is not necessarily your enemy. The ECB NEEDS the EUR weaker. It simply does not want the markets to get out of hand.

This is different from circumstances other times in the markets when we are trading at cross purposes with government objectives. A weak euro is not seen as a bad thing.

GVI Forex Blog 12:31 GMT May 15, 2010 Reply   
Last week's eur/usd 734 pip range was excessive by any historic measure. When viewed in terms of the EZ "all in" stabilization fund, the euro plunge is even more bearish. This leaves the Oct 28, 2008 low at 1.2331 exposed and I would not want to be the one managing sell stops in Aust-NZ barring any weekend news. Should 1.2331 be taken out, then

Forex Blog - EURO: Pivotal Big Figures Targeted

HK [email protected] 10:32 GMT May 15, 2010

Jean-Claude Trichet , suggests the Euro-shorts to be complacent, and for others to add some more shorts, because for sure they are safe and can make money from the euro demise.
Maybe too good to be true?

GVI Forex Jay 09:36 GMT May 15, 2010
This suggests little chance of intervention?

BERLIN, May 15 (Reuters) - The euro EUR= is not under attack, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet was quoted on Saturday as saying, despite its fall to an 18 month low against the dollar.

UPDATE 1-Euro is not under attack, ECB's Trichet says

GVI Forex Blog 07:03 GMT May 15, 2010 Reply   
The euro declined to its lowest against the dollar in one and a half years on Friday and was down over one percent versus the yen as traders aggressively sold the euro on concerns that the debt crisis

Euro falls to lowest since 2008 on doubts over the single currency's future

HK [email protected] 06:51 GMT May 15, 2010
CFTC Data Show New Record Net Euro Short Position Of $18 Bln

Haifa ac 05:25 GMT May 15, 2010

In principle, and regarding the fundamental environment of today, you are right!!!

But any chirp favoring(for whatever reason Euro longs) may cause an explosion of short covering.

20 days is infinity in market terms, too long to draw definite conclusions.

Haifa ac 05:25 GMT May 15, 2010
CFTC Data Show New Record Net Euro Short Position Of $18 Bln

Most of the open interest is in the JUNE contract
that means that there is not ONE LONG WITH PROFIT
Expiration of the June contract is June 14

that is only 20 trading days ahead

Nowhere for the longs to go but LIQUIDATE THEIR LONGS
Chance for long squeeze is obvious. Beware!

Syd 02:48 GMT May 15, 2010
Citi Economists Push Back Fed Rate Hike Call
Economists at Citi now push back their call for first rate hike by the Fed to first half of 2011 rather than later this year. "The threat of renewed financial instability and heightened risk aversion stemming from turmoil in European debt markets has refocused the Fed on the need for maximum accommodation," say the economists in a research note Friday. "Active exiting, including initial rate hikes, may be off the table for this year." While the economic recovery is becoming entrenched, policymakers need to be certain that financial stability has been secured, especially in an environment where traditional options for stabilization policy are not available, they say.

Syd 02:41 GMT May 15, 2010
CFTC Data Show New Record Net Euro Short Position Of $18 Bln
Investors increased their bets against the euro to a new record level, according to data released Friday, as the common currency weakens sharply in response to market concerns about the longer-term implications of the EUR750 million euro zone rescue plan.

Net speculative bets--called shorts--against the euro increased to $18 billion in the week ended Tuesday, according to an analysis by Scotia Bank of the weekly Commitments of Traders report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission late Friday afternoon.

The net short position against the British pound did not change significantly, said Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital.

"The most dramatic change probably came in yen, which had a week-over-week $4 billion change," Sutton said, adding that the change roughly halved the net short position against the Japanese currency to $4.7 billion.

The data represent only a small slice of the foreign-exchange market and reflect positions taken by the most active speculative investors. The report does, however, give a sense of market sentiment toward the euro based on the direction and volume of bets.

Late Friday, the euro was at $1.2379, from $1.2531 late Friday, according to EBS via CQG.

It hit a low of $1.2358, its lowest level since October 2008, in earlier trading.

Net euro, sterling short bets hit fresh record -CFTC

GVI Forex Blog 02:31 GMT May 15, 2010 Reply   

Stocks Finish Sharply Lower; More Downside Likely

GVI Forex Blog 02:30 GMT May 15, 2010 Reply   

Euro Threatening “Lehman Brothers Low”

Syd 02:13 GMT May 15, 2010
Euro Breakup Talk Increases as Germany Loses Proxy
Euro Breakup Talk Increases as Germany Loses Proxy May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Romano Prodi recalls how he persuaded Germany to allow debt-swamped Italy into the euro: support our membership and we’ll buy your milk, he said.

Syd 01:38 GMT May 15, 2010
US faces one of biggest budget crunches in world – IMF
some might be tempted at this point to cite the fact that the US has the world’s reserve currency in the dollar as another bonus. I am less sure. There is no doubt that this has made the US a safe haven destination (people buy US bonds when freaked out about more or less anything), and has meant that America has been able to keep borrowing at low levels throughout the crisis. However, the flip side of this is that because it has yet to feel the market strain, the US also has yet to face up properly to the public finance disaster that could befall it if it does not do anything about the problem. America is not Greece, but if it does not start making efforts to cut the deficit within a few years, it will head in that direction. The upshot wouldn’t be an IMF bail-out, but a collapse in the dollar and possible hyperinflation in the US, but it would be horrific all the same. America has time, but not forever

Syd 00:30 GMT May 15, 2010
Euro Pain Could Blow Back on Big U.S. Banks
Federal Reserve officials took pains this week to dispel any notion that their support of Europe's $1 trillion bailout meant U.S. taxpayer funds would be used to prop up the profligate Greeks. But in explaining the need for it to help ease financial strain, the Fed underscored that big U.S. banks remain vulnerable to Europe's financial contagion.

During a closed-door meeting on Capitol Hill, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers a European crisis would threaten U.S. banks, Sen. Richard Shelby said after the meeting. In a speech Thursday, Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn noted that lending systems "remain somewhat vulnerable."

Yet big U.S. banks reported minimal exposures to Greece or Portugal, the most at-risk countries. So where does the danger lie?

Syd 00:06 GMT May 15, 2010
Singh Advocates Euro-Zone Split Between South and North
May 14 (Bloomberg) -- Sudeep Singh, who manages the Matrix Redux Emerging Markets Fund, talks with Bloomberg's Rishaad Salamat about the possible introduction of an alternative to the euro to let Greece and other European nations devalue their way to financial health.


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