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Forex Forum Archive for 05/18/2010

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tokyo rana 23:59 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

Dear Clearwater EW,
yeah it part of game win and lose....
good time will come...
good luck...
happy trade,

tokyo ginko 23:59 GMT May 18, 2010
Trade Ideas

add 50% 1.2150

tokyo ginko 23:58 GMT May 18, 2010
Trade Ideas

add 50% eur/usd 1.2157

Tampa Dave 23:55 GMT May 18, 2010
Lunch

My business is on the airport at Zephyrhills

Clearwater EW 23:54 GMT May 18, 2010
Lunch

Any time Tampa what part of tampa you in

GVI Forex Jay 23:53 GMT May 18, 2010
Lunch

Dave send me any requests for contact and I will forward them. We will soon be launching a member directory that will allow you to contact other members directly.

GVI Forex Blog 23:50 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   

European Union not the Euro May be the Issue

Tampa Dave 23:49 GMT May 18, 2010
Lunch
Reply   
Clearwater EW your close.
We should get together for lunch.

Clearwater EW 23:39 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

thanks rana im looking for the pull back then I will short again just have not had any luck on my longs lately! Thanks for the reply and good luck to you as well

tokyo rana 23:36 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

Dear Clearwater EW,
im still long 133.618........
iwill not short below 134....
above 134 iwill think shortor short even more high.....
im still waiting for better entry for short....
still not give up overall....
intraday iwas wrong about gbpjpy imade yesterday i had 313pips plus....
lets see wat happen today wat ever is ok if we break 130 than on bounce iwill short 133 134....
happy trade,

manila tom 23:28 GMT May 18, 2010
sell euro

target hit and even better bonus, closed all positions at 1.2188

manila tom 10:12 GMT May 18, 2010
sell euro : Reply

Entry: 1.2411 Target: 1.2288 Stop: 1.2458

sell euro as I think it will have a hard time passing 1.2450

Clearwater EW 23:27 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

ok rana so where do we go from here ? I was almost went short aud yen at 81.20 and backed out out missed a pant load there but oh well!!!!

Syd 23:16 GMT May 18, 2010
Wilbur Ross on European Debt Crisis
Reply   
According to Wilbur, the Greek seems to have problem to collect taxes. In a resort where his friend lives, they collect tax by the number of swimming pool and there a bout 600 swimming pool on the official record, but some flied a airplane and counted about 16,000.

If that is the problem, the Greek debt problem is rather simple to solve than. All you have to do is to collect tax according to the law.

http://www.gurufocus.com/forum/read.php?1,94951

Melbourne Qindex 23:11 GMT May 18, 2010
Gold : Current Comments
Reply   
Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

Gold : The market is going to tackle the barrier at 1239.9 // 1248.1.

Syd 23:02 GMT May 18, 2010
Prasad Says Europe May Be `Harbinger of Bad Things
Reply   
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Prasad%20Says%20Europe%20May%20Be%20%60Harbinger%20of%20Bad20Things'&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vCDxk
9v.Hfbk.asf

Syd 22:58 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro Falls to Lowest Level Since 2006 on Austerity Concern
Reply   
“Since that news broke a lot of euros have been sold, a mind-boggling amount,” said Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York. “They’re leaving them with only one way to be negative on Europe and that’s to sell the euro.” The shared currency will probably fall to $1.20 before the end of June, he said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601083&sid=a3y1dL1PHYPw

tokyo rana 22:57 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

Dear lkwd jj,
iwas wrong about gbpjpy....
gbpjpy was short not long..

happy trade,

sofia kaprikorn 22:48 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

just for the record I got longs at 1.2216/13/05 and 1.2194/77
adjusted the Stop @ 1.2144
.....

I see all comments are so awfully bearish that I just like to try the contrarian sentiment indicator and he Hourly chart Drop off the Res at 1.2440 was so steep and extended that a quick bounce to around 1.2280/1.2320 is usually feasible from my observations.
....

btw - what are the implications for the FX market of this ban on the short sales throughout Europe - what happened to the Open/Free market?

Belgrade TD 22:47 GMT May 18, 2010
EUR/JPY
Reply   
Buy EURJPY
Entry: 112 Target: 115+ Stop: 110.5-

with this parity the EU is more competitive than Japan ... I think this pair will go up ... during May ...

Lahore FM 22:47 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

JN, no intervention bet here.the long is not anticipatory!

Europe Theorist 22:46 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

There were earlier comments of which I concur that the decline is due to institutional / HF's closing their long positions rather than shorts....

Having said that in order for a rally its going to take the very same to commence that and I just cannot see any institution and or fund mgr going long when (a) they have just closed out and (b) the regulatory turmoil thats about to commence in Europe, which is intentional...

If anyone can give a hint as to what would justify going long ..please let us know but otherwise don't buck the trend and go with the flow... down and dirty

NYC JM 22:40 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

It is much more difficult to intervene to support a weak currency than to counter a strong currency. They want a weaker euro and would only intervene to slow the pace and restore a two-way risk. IMHO of course.

Miami JN 22:34 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

Are you guys betting on intervention. I cannot see any other reason to be buying eurusd???

Ath. L.K. 22:32 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

Market trying to reach 1.2120/30.
I think intervation is coming...

Tallinn viies 22:28 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
it is widely expedted that other European countries may follow german lead tommorow morning and ban short selling. france, italy, spain, etc

Belgrade TD 22:28 GMT May 18, 2010
euro

add long AUD/USD at 0,8610 ... add long NZD/USD at 0,6889 ... lovering entry for long-term ...

Lahore FM 22:27 GMT May 18, 2010
Trade Ideas

cheers Ginko,right now its panic on eurusd,and longs are a lonely trade.my first long on it in a long time though!

tokyo ginko 22:26 GMT May 18, 2010
Trade Ideas

why not?

long eur/usd with [email protected] 1.2175

Lahore FM 22:24 GMT May 18, 2010
Trade Ideas

Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.2174 Target: 1.3000 Stop: 1.2090

bought now off monthlies on my screen.

HK c 22:22 GMT May 18, 2010
USDJPY
Reply   
Buy USDJPY
Entry: 92.05 Target: 93.10 Stop: 91.55

Renewing and refining this order.

Miami JN 22:15 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

I thought I did well today and it is now down nearly 200 pips from my t/p. I will be short but not sure of a level yet.

Singapore stan 22:12 GMT May 18, 2010
EURUSD
Reply   
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.2270 Target: 1.2000 Stop: 1.2310

hard to get in here.

Singapore stan 22:08 GMT May 18, 2010
EURUSD

Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: 1.2170 Stop:

Reluctantly I am taking profits on the second leg of my short. Will be looking for new level(s) to sell against.

Melbourne Qindex 22:02 GMT May 18, 2010
USD/JPY : Current Comments

USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

USD/JPY : The odds are good that the market will tackle the barrier at 90.63 // 91.50.

Melbourne Qindex 21:56 GMT May 18, 2010
USD/JPY : Current Comments
Reply   
USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

USD/JPY : The bias is on the downside when the market is trading below the daily cycle matrix system at 92.50 - 92.53 - 92.81.

sofia kaprikorn 21:53 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

sofia kaprikorn 20:29 GMT May 18, 2010
I will try again buying spot 1.2213 and adding some lower with total stop @ 1.2155
........
the low was at 1.2156 so my position survived and added at 1.2179 /94

anyway catching falling knives usually is good for a quick rally but as discussed many times here trading with the trend is much more comfortable and also a bit hard as once the trend starts one is hard to pick his spot to enter..

Chicago sc 21:51 GMT May 18, 2010
Wednesday
Reply   
Trying to figure out how German traders will react to the sudden ban on naked short-selling tomorrow. I gather the ban only pertains to new shorts. Problem is still how do you get out of your existing shorts when there is no liquidity?

Ath. L.K. 21:45 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Closed my sorts to 1.2170.
Sort term buy target 1.2280.
I'll start selling again to 1.23 up to 1.24 if seen...

GVI Forex john 21:41 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

Only futures. This is the headline figure released every week. We just recently started plotting it. Week to week number changes are not that interesting. Overall positioning has been useful.

Tallinn viies 21:38 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
GVI Forex john 21:32 GMT - only futures? or futures and options combined?

GVI Forex john 21:32 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro

This is the third time I have posted this chart since Friday. Think it is very useful. As of last Tuesday market was already very short EUR and other currencies. Note today is the day on which the data will be based on for this Friday.



uyo B.U 21:28 GMT May 18, 2010


can see dat. bravo house
all 4 1, 1 4 all.

Mtl JP 21:25 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro

every trade has a buyer and a seller.
so who is/are current euro buyer(s) ?

GVI Forex john 21:25 GMT May 18, 2010



We try to promote a a cooperative spirit here and have a wonderful group of people who participate.

Europe Theorist 21:16 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro

Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

All instituional / HF's are out their longs, slow methodical decline as the shorts build momentum through the 1.20 as all significant support dissipated. Therefore, we will see 1.19xx during next 18hrs....

GVI Forex john 21:15 GMT May 18, 2010


B.U. welcome!

Syd 21:11 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro
Reply   
Euro selling is now getting disorderly ??

uyo B.U 21:11 GMT May 18, 2010

Reply   
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

GREAT REBOUND ON THE WAY, BUT NOT SOO SOON.STILL GOT SOME DOWN TO GO.GUESS WE WILL BE SURE BY SINGAPORE HONGKONG OPENING.MY FIRST TIME ON THIS FORUM.AM IN LOVE WITH U GUUYS ALREADY.

dc CB 21:07 GMT May 18, 2010
Draft Report: CFTC Examining May 6 Swap Dealer Trading

Well it's a tad better that the " Oswald by himself from the book depository" theory they tried to float earlier.

in case you don't recall, or were not yet born

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gcaq4ElAJrE

Syd 20:58 GMT May 18, 2010
NZD/USD Weaker, German Ban Causes Sell off -BNZ
Reply   
NZD/USD trading lower after surprise announcement from Germany it will ban naked short-selling on certain stocks, bonds, CDS inspired widespread panic, says BNZ FX Strategist Mike Jones; "Risk-sensitive currencies like the NZD were sold aggressively as investors flocked back into safe-haven assets." NZD/USD last 0.6939. Says six-month Financial Stability Report from RBNZ should be generally positive on health of NZ's financial system, may contain insights in RBNZ's thinking about recent difficulties in Europe.

GVI Forex Blog 20:56 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   
The Canadian dollar weakened against the U.S. currency on Tuesday as investors took their cue to abandon riskier assets from the tumbling euro on festering concerns deep government spending cuts in

CANADA FX DEBT-C$ weakens as euro sets tone on risk

dc CB 20:53 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd




put to call ratio

Tonbridge AL 20:50 GMT May 18, 2010
Draft Report: CFTC Examining May 6 Swap Dealer Trading

nothing like overlooking the plain vanilla more sellers than buyers and clearly they (auhtorities) looked into the abyss and did not like the price discovery process

dc CB 20:44 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

imho....stock...financial are a very major component of the SnPs, also energy. The banks are geting wacked from all sides....public relations - - the big 4 reported no losing trading days in Q1 -- this is an election year, and if you don't think the pols won't use citizen anger to pass laws and get elected......

they're also getting hit by Europe....today was a real big example that those running Europe haven't a clue....they basically single handedly destroyed a worldwide short covering rally that started in Asia.....

we'll very likely revisit the FlashCrash lows...as this week is options expiry. Tues are usually the day to murder whichever side is overheld....this cycle it was the short side....thanks to the Twits in Europe, the opportunity was blown.

see my Monty Python YouTube post earlier. The last event to win the contestant must be the first to shoot himself in the head. That's what happened today.

GVI Forex Blog 20:43 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   

Start of Bailout Deployment Still Not Enough to Support Euro

Syd 20:43 GMT May 18, 2010
Draft Report: CFTC Examining May 6 Swap Dealer Trading
Reply   
Draft: Stop-Loss Market Orders Could Have Triggered Chain Reaction
CFTC, SEC Draft Summary On 'Flash Crash' Focuses On 6 Hypotheses
Draft Does Not Pinpoint One Cause Of Flash Crash
Draft: Regulators Probing Flash Crash Impact On Exchange-Traded Funds
Draft Report Calls For Examining Use Of Stub Quotes
Draft Report: CFTC Examining May 6 Swap Dealer Trading
Draft: CFTC, SEC To Launch Study On Linkages Across Equities, Futures, Options Markets
Draft: Flash Crash Suggests 'Temporary Breakdown' In Liquidity
Draft: Exchange Traded Funds Had Disproportionate Broken Trades
Draft: 'Stub Quotes' Led To Large Number Of Broken Trades
Draft: Stop-Loss Market Orders Could Have Triggered Chain Reaction

Syd 20:38 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro
Reply   
Geneva 20:15 GMT nice to see you , many thanks also

GVI Forex john 20:35 GMT May 18, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

API Data Crude +794K Gasoline +981K Distillates -331K C/U 85.9%

sofia kaprikorn 20:29 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

viies

I'm thankful to read your options trading ideas - have no experience but when I see it I read and learn the strategies you mention.

On FX/Equity correlation I don't see the socks justifying the drop to the S2 so I'd buy the capitulation/liquidation rationale here.

My first bottom test at 1.2260 got stopped for 40 pips.

I will try again buying spot 1.2213 and adding some lower with total stop @ 1.2155

GVI Forex Blog 20:28 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   
Markets were rattled by news reports of market controls in the Eurozone. After the European session, it was reported that from tonight, Germany will ban naked short-selling of some German financial institution stocks and Eurozone government bonds, with related CDS' also captured by the restriction.

Forex Research - Morning Report (Westpac)

GVI Forex Blog 20:26 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   
20:00 GMT- May 18 (global-view.com) The EUR had stabilized vs. the USD at around the 1.2400 level late Monday, but over the day it has started to slide again. The slide gained momentum after the Merkel government in Germany announced a series of measures to restrain speculative activities in the financial markets. Sadly, what the politicians don't seem to understand is that such steps are likely to backfire on them.

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- EUR Tumbles

Lahore FM 20:25 GMT May 18, 2010
Trade Ideas

Buy AUDUSD
Entry: 0.8654 Target: open Stop: 0.8550

long now.

YVR MAXXIM 20:21 GMT May 18, 2010
TRAND
Reply   


Sell GBPUSD
Entry: Target: OPEN Stop:

TSARS 0.02 0.035 0.05

Hillegom Lappy 4 Purk 20:20 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

well we had an almost 300 pipper on today. lets see. high prob that we will see 12160 again tomorrow. So the higher it goes the more pips one gains, or not...
give away 50% makes around 1,23 as high, or not... see, simple, or not... giving 200 more makes 12007 tomorrow, or not... not important for me where it goes. as long as it goes!

Geneva 20:15 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro
Reply   
prague viktor

Yes, its me! I think it's a bottom, BUT ONLY short term! longer term I see Euro at 1.08 as I called at 1.50+

GL

Tok JT 20:09 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

WS, Agreed! think we have good chance to see parity in longer term... But I would be very happy to take profit @1.2000-1.2050


london red 20:08 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro

The market isn't one individual and so is rarely decisive. Hence it will give you many opportunities to make a good profitable trade without the need to pick a high or low that will stand for a number of years. There's a saying only monkeys pick bottoms, so let's leave them to it, as when the euro starts to rise you will know about it. As for viies, as usual he is going to be right at some stage, as quite rightly he has pointed out a dangerously highly level of short positions in the IMM euro contract. I don't think he is suggesting euro is an outright long and that the move is over, just that the risk of a sharp short squeeze is ever greater and in his view warrants long entries as he sees fits.
On another point, the euro, as we know it, has seen 82 and 1.60. It is now almost 1.20 which is roughly half way. Draw a line through a 30 year chart and is points generally to an upward trend. What does this mean? Not much which just goes to show how positions are built over time and how we are yet to see any real unwinding mature euro longs. All of course with the usual fwiws and imos

london red 20:08 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro

The market isn't one individual and so is rarely decisive. Hence it will give you many opportunities to make a good profitable trade without the need to pick a high or low that will stand for a number of years. There's a saying only monkeys pick bottoms, so let's leave them to it, as when the euro starts to rise you will know about it. As for viies, as usual he is going to be right at some stage, as quite rightly he has pointed out a dangerously highly level of short positions in the IMM euro contract. I don't think he is suggesting euro is an outright long and that the move is over, just that the risk of a sharp short squeeze is ever greater and in his view warrants long entries as he sees fits.
On another point, the euro, as we know it, has seen 82 and 1.60. It is now almost 1.20 which is roughly half way. Draw a line through a 30 year chart and is points generally to an upward trend. What does this mean? Not much which just goes to show how positions are built over time and how we are yet to see any real unwinding mature euro longs. All of course with the usual fwiws and imos

Syd 20:07 GMT May 18, 2010
NZD Relatively Resilient But Euro Weighing - ANZ
Reply   
NZD/USD holding up relatively well in face of fresh onslaught on EUR, says ANZ Bank Senior Dealer Alex Sinton. "There's general all round demand. There's reasonable belief, and rightly so, that our relative economic performance and currency should be rewarded appropriately."

The euro plummeted Tuesday to a fresh four-year low after Germany announced it would ban certain speculative investments, exacerbating the selling of the single currency as investors run out of alternatives to trade the sovereign debt crisis already roiling the euro zone.

nyc ws 20:01 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

I do not understand the rush to look for a bottom. There is alot more risk on the eur downside.

Tallinn viies 19:57 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
helsinki, sofia - thats what Im trying to say that with options its time to start preparing for next 1500 pips up.
be it call spread or seagull or knock in call. and if euro really falls to 1,14 then only premium will be lost.

Helsinki iw 19:52 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro
Reply   
Agree with most of what you say viies, but the problem is always to find the bottom, markets can stay.. an so forth. In effect bottom-fishing is providing liquidity,i.e. a short-vol strategy.

Western European pension plans are mostly bankrupt with their ALM mismatches anyway.

sofia kaprikorn 19:50 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

Tallinn viies
you make a good point on counter moves
the other thing is conventional investors are strangely in love with "buying value" - but in this reference I love Gartman's story of those who bought Enron all the way down to 0..

Napoli DC 19:43 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro

watch out Cairo, speculative volumes are exploding

Tallinn viies 19:41 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
Helsinki iw 19:26 GMT - people who are liquidating euros are those guys who run your pension funds :)

IMM futures and options positions show something different.
tide will turn as it always does when its running to far too quickly. those positions against euro are many times bigger when Soros messed with streling.
I do not have numbers here but I guess those spec positions are at all time highs? those position will be runned as long as first decent correction comes. do you remember december 2008?
from 1,26 to 1,47. two thousands points with less than month. Im expecting same kind of move up to somewhere near 1,38.

Look at the crude for example, 2 weeks ago they made new high of the year 87,15.
spec positions were similar to current euro postions in relative terms. now price is more than 25% lower and we close today under current year low.
friday cftc published spec positions for crude oil. bulls decrerased their longs by 20K contracts but there is still ca 180K contracts more. in normal situation max 40-80 000 longs on bull trends. with 1 week minus 8 dollars and - 20 000 cntracts. this week -8 dollars and probably lot more contracts but could be still more to come.....
and people still think oil is cheap :)))))

Syd 19:40 GMT May 18, 2010
The ban will apply to short selling of shares in Germany's top 10 financial institutions and credit
Reply   
Germany will ban so-called naked short-selling of shares in 10 leading German financial institutions and in euro government bonds from midnight Tuesday, the finance ministry said.
The ban will apply to short selling of shares in Germany's top 10 financial institutions and credit default swaps on euro-zone government bonds, a finance ministry spokeswoman said. The government will prepare a bill, taking into consideration its legal implications, ministry spokeswoman Jeanette Schwamberger told Dow Jones Newswires.
Schwamberger said that additional bans on naked short selling are planned, in addition to those scheduled to start at midnight. They will include a total ban on naked short selling of all German shares, stock derivatives, derivatives related to euro zone government bonds, as well as euro-currency derivatives that "don't serve a role in hedging against currency risks."

Cairo Hesham 19:39 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro

I think it is the time for a real rebound for the eur. Can any one suggest bad news as we already had seen in the previous two months?

San Diego LC 19:37 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro

I have no idea -- maybe it's just falling because no one is buying? It works that way in other asset classes -- dealers cautiously trying to find a bid?

Cairo Hesham 19:35 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro

But who is still selling eur till now?

Helsinki iw 19:26 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro
Reply   
Long is Wrong

It's not players going short,it's the longs liquidating.

Tallinn viies 19:25 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
crude is waiting API today...
as cushing oklahoma nearing to full capacity people are very nerveous about big increase.
first month contract will expire soon in couple of days and those last days swings could be very huge

Prague Viktor 19:23 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Tallinn viies 18:54 GMT May 18, 2010

Im long with u

G/L G/T

Geneva ej 19:22 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro

Can't recall, but I doubt it!

prague viktor 19:18 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro

Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Geneva sir are u the same one who call to the sell the E @ 1,5**

G/L G/T

Melbourne Qindex 19:16 GMT May 18, 2010
USD/CHF : Current Comments

USDCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

USD/CHF : The market momentum is strong when it is above 1.1458. It is now working on the barriers at 1.1479 // 1.1600.

Geneva ej 19:14 GMT May 18, 2010
EURCHF
Reply   
Sell EURCHF
Entry: 1.4005 Target: 1.3800 Stop: 1.4020

This pair has got to break! SNB must have been swamped with EUR.

Any thoughts?

Melbourne Qindex 19:10 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/USD : Current Comments

GBP/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market downside trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the daily cycle matrix system at 1.4269 - 1.4316 - 1.4331.

Melbourne Qindex 19:08 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/USD : Current Comments

GBP/USD : The market is challenging the barrier at 1.4264 // 1.4316.

Syd 19:04 GMT May 18, 2010
Finance Minister Jorge Giordani said the central bank will be given control over currency trading w
Reply   
Venezuela's government, hoping to prevent its currency from falling further, said Tuesday it was temporarily suspending currency trading in the unregulated market while it creates a high-tech trading platform that can eliminate speculation in the market.
He also indicated brokerage houses would be excluded from forex trading and would continue to be investigated for irregularities. The government has been blaming "speculative" brokerages for the bolivar's troubles.

Melbourne Qindex 19:03 GMT May 18, 2010
EUR/USD : Current Comments

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Market makers want it much lower. The daily cycle matrix system at 1.2022 - 1.2094 - 1.2189 will be challenged.

Tallinn viies 19:03 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
Short selling ban takes effect from May 19 to Mar 31. and will be "closely monitored"

Syd 19:03 GMT May 18, 2010
Venezuela Official: Forex Market Trading Suspended
Reply   
Venezuela: Brokerages To Be Watched Closely By Central Bank
Venezuela Suspends Forex Trading In Unregulated Market

Melbourne Qindex 19:00 GMT May 18, 2010
EUR/USD : Current Comments

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Mtl JP 18:52 GMT May 18 : EUR/USD : It will be defended stronly around the Critical Support at 1.2183

Tallinn viies 18:56 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
Industry news: Rtrs, citing sources, says new US trading curbs to
include all S&P 500 stocks, exclude ETF's.

Provided by: Market News International

Melbourne Qindex 18:55 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/USD : Current Comments

GBP/USD : The fair value for the New York closing is around 1.4340. The odds are good that the market will tackle the barrier at 1.4156 // 1.4248 in the Asian session.

Tallinn viies 18:54 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
went long on eurusd spot at 1,2237. will add at 1,2137 double size. this 5 times leverage trade. plan to increase it to 20 times. target 1,28sh. good luck

Mtl JP 18:52 GMT May 18, 2010
EUR/USD : Current Comments

Qindex 18:45 I could see some bids around 1.2150

Tallinn viies 18:50 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
if you want to buy euros at 1,12 this year anyway then at the moment selling euro put to 30-12-10 gives you 200 pints upfront...
fwiw

Melbourne Qindex 18:45 GMT May 18, 2010
EUR/USD : Current Comments

EUR/USD : The market is likely to settle around 1.2244 in the New York session.

Richmond Dennis 18:42 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

Sunday o/n low of 12234 in the gunsights now!

Tallinn viies 18:41 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
Europe Theorist 18:29 GMT - should work this way, all expiries on 30/12/10....
buy 1,25 call
sell 1,15 put double size
sell 1,32 call
zero cost and risk is to buy euros at 1,1500 whihch is over 25% high low distance per year. during lehmann it was ca 30%

Melbourne Qindex 18:40 GMT May 18, 2010
EUR/USD : Current Comments

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : The market is now testing the supporting barrier at 1.2211 // 1.2235. The odds are good that the market will challenge the daily cycle matrix system at 1.2022 - 1.2094 - 1.2189.

Chicago sc 18:36 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

K.K.

Its going to follow EURUSD

Chigago sc 18:35 GMT May 18, 2010
bottom test

Trying to catching a falling knife is dangerous!

Tehran K.K 18:35 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

ANY IDEA ABOUT GBP/USD?

sofia kaprikorn 18:29 GMT May 18, 2010
bottom test
Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.2260 Target: 1.2460 Stop: 1.2222

low leverage test position.

Europe Theorist 18:29 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

Sorry but as a veteran of options and exotics your input is not workable and nonsensical...

BTW...
Europe Theorist 05:09 GMT May 18, 2010
EUR/USD : Current Comments : Reply
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:


I'm going on the fact that European Ministers & Gov's WANT a EURUSD @ 1.10 giving by default a 1% growth rate and providing the launch pad for faster recovery...

EURUSD up never again .... its going to be down and dirty thats the only way to go

Ath. L.K. 18:27 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro

Euro will test 1.2180 next hours.
Then will see...
And it is not oversold!
Why it is?
If they want to protect,ECB has to act,but I dont think so.
Only from SNB wait for some help.
Any way 1.23 is a good chance to sell for next hours.

Good Luck!

GVI Forex Blog 18:24 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   
When all goes wrong with Greece, Club Med debt, sovereign CDS and bank stocks, what is Germany to do? Go rogue. With my jaw inches above my floor in the wake of news from Berlin of capital controls in Germany (bans on naked short sales of 10 large German financials, EU sovereign debt and CDS on that debt) all the while EU finance ministers are meeting in Brussels

Forex Blog - Germany Goes Rogue, EUR Sacrificial Lamb

Tallinn viies 18:22 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
Geneva 18:13 GMT May 18 - 100% agreed with you.
lets not forget that so far for this high low distance is 20%. this usually normal per year not for less than 5 months.
then of course we can not forget that for month of may high low distance is ca 10% which is also not very common.
there were 2 or 3 10% month in 2008 and 09.
Of course we can not hide 2008 december 17% move....

so, buy euro calls for rest of the year. very popular seagulls.
buy call at 1,2500
sell put 1,15 and sell call 1,35 should work I guess to get zero cost. if not downside is almost 99.9% protected during this yeaR so increase th size of downside puts.

call spreads also gives quite reasonable profits without huge risks or vanilla calls with knock in calls at lower levels.

BUY IN MAY AND GO AWAY IS THE NAME OF GAME THIS YEAR :)

Boston RS 18:15 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro

Geneva. It is a leap of faith to try and catch a falling knife.

Geneva 18:13 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro
Reply   
Stop listen, open your eyes, Euro is very much over sold, A strong pull back is very close!

GVI Forex john 18:12 GMT May 18, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support


The Daily Forex View

EUR Tumbles

20:00 GMT- May 18 (global-view.com) The EUR had stabilized vs. the USD at around the 1.2400 level late Monday, but over the day it has started to slide again. The slide gained momentum after the Merkel 

MORE



dc CB 18:11 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

sort of sums it up

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRBkgshj8Cw&feature=related

Chicago sc 18:01 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

I gt the feeling the markets are pushing on an open door (lower EUR) and that the lack of resistance is making them feel nervous. I guess the robots don't have emotions or fear like those of here who are humanoids.

Next major level (1.2000) should see option protection,

Boston RS 17:57 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

If there wasn't a movie already named The Blind Side I would use it to describe what just happened.

GVI Forex Jay 17:53 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

This was posted on GVI Forex and is worth a read:

Tonbridge AL 17:37 GMT May 18, 2010
Short Selling: Reply
Do they not understand that they need the banks to buy their debt and those guys need the swap/derivative markets for them to offset and hedge risk. The net result possibly could be noone will step up to the plate at the auction. Why would anyone buy for example Greek paper and NOT hedge with a CDS. result no interest in buying Greek paper. Cannot see how this is genuinely bullish Bunds unless of course the Euro is going to fall apart then I can see reason

Geneva 17:52 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro
Reply   
Long date Euro bear! Cover short taking long Euro target 1.29.
It's a trap short term trap!

lkwd jj 17:52 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

13188 is next level. s2 today.... see you friday. out wed/thur.

nyc ws 17:46 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

Viies. I underestimated the impact. Thanks for posting that news.

GVI Forex john 17:46 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

Viies - I'd say Merkel is trying to protect German banks. However, all the global banks are tightly intertwined, if one gets into trouble it impacts them all. That is why saying that banks should not be too big to fail is sheer nonsense in the real world.

london red 17:45 GMT May 18, 2010
euro

nyc thats the log and short of it. I want to be free to open and close my positions as i see fit and not be hampered in that in any way as i will choose to trade another instrument elsewhere that is free of such manipulation, thats the way most people go about their business.

Tallinn viies 17:38 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
so US banks under fire?

German Finance Ministry confirms to ban naked short selling on 10 large German financial companies effective midnight

Mtl JP 17:35 GMT May 18, 2010
euro

john 17:24 think european lawyers as horny as SEC' s porn-dowloading ones ? If not sounds like good odds of ccy controls & bank holidays next - and all that is missing is insider trading by regulatory lawyers


tokyo rana 17:33 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

Dear lkwd jj,
this is nice support area iwill not short here...
iwill wait for better im sure come.....
this will not go down soon....
i prefer long....
even today gbp weak....
u know very gbpjpy can 500 to 1200pips in session....
who knows next time some one press wrong button up side down 1200 points plus...
happy trade,

nyc ws 17:33 GMT May 18, 2010
euro

red are you saying if you can't hedge directly you will look for some other market that may have a correlation.

GVI Forex john 17:31 GMT May 18, 2010
euro

red - dead right

london red 17:30 GMT May 18, 2010
euro

hence participants will hedge where ever possible in whatever markets are available to them, increase the volatility in the free markets that are still trading...to sum up can't see this as being great news for any euro related instruments

GVI Forex john 17:24 GMT May 18, 2010
euro

Ban is being taken as a vote of no-confidence in the German financial system. this is what happens when you let lawyers get involved with markets.

lkwd jj 17:23 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

also break of hourly uptrend ... gl and gt

GVI Forex Jay 17:22 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

Ban on short selling also applies to naked short selling of CDS swaps on Euro government bonds.

lkwd jj 17:21 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

rana whatch gbpjpy longs . risk aversion makes yen stronger and euro selling pulling gbp weaker.

tokyo rana 17:17 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

Ukraine Mishka,
ithink go up.....
donot short here.....
happy trade,

Singapore stan 17:17 GMT May 18, 2010
EURUSD

Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: 1.2292 Stop:

Just popped in and taking profits on one leg of my two level sale much earlier. git back all I lost and more. Still half short.

Back for a little more sleep now !

gl+gt

nyc ws 17:16 GMT May 18, 2010
euro

John do you think that is what sent the euro tumbling? There must be some other rumor or news that caused this.

Tallinn viies 17:16 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
yesterday EU guys during the night "regulated" hedge funds...
today short selling banned.
what is going to happen tommorow? Tobin tax?

Ukraine Mishka 17:11 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY
Reply   
tokyo rana "long position open."
It's mean gbp/jpy will go up?

GVI Forex john 17:08 GMT May 18, 2010
euro

from GVI Forex
GVI Forex john 17:06 GMT May 18, 2010
Headlines and Analysis Discussion: Reply

Report Merkel just said she supports financial transaction tax- TTN

nyc ws 17:04 GMT May 18, 2010
euro
Reply   
Is there any news out? Euro just pulled stocks down but except for that short selling ban I don't see any news.

tokyo rana 17:03 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

long position open...
better sleep......
happy trade

GVI Forex john 17:00 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

Its naked short-selling thats being banned. Headlines have been very misleading.

lkwd jj 16:57 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

is this similiar to the uptick rule on the nyse, or more restictive?

GVI Forex john 16:52 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

Viees thank you. Is this a euro negative??

GVI Forex john 16:51 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

HEADLINE: Germany to ban Naked selling of certain stocks and Euro bonds from Midnight

GVI Forex john 16:46 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

Here it is

Short selling ban applies to stocks and German government bonds. I guess all these politicians are in the business of setting up offshore trading markets?

GVI Forex Jay 16:43 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

One of our GVI Forex members reminded us that last year's eur/usd low was 1.2458. This is a key level to keep in mind as market will look to sell as long as it stays below it. Only above this level would put 1.25 in play again. High today was 1.2445.

Tallinn viies 16:35 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
GVI Forex Jay 16:30 - I guess they are talking about stocks.

shorting cds doesnt fit to finmin mind. institutional are selling to custoemrs idea that they can - sell protection and buy protection :)))))
buying naked protection does of course mean specualting so banning short selling of cds will increase spreads ....

GVI Forex john 16:34 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

Seriously I can only find the headline. No story. Can't figure out why they would impose the ban on stocks, if it is on stocks.

GVI Forex Jay 16:30 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

Maybe CDS?

Brisbane Flip 16:28 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

Maybe he is banning short selling before some real crap news comes out -haha

Brisbane Flip 16:28 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

Sounds like a political announcement.
DAX is up 3% YTD

GVI Forex john 16:27 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

viies- trying to figure out short selling of what? equities?

Tallinn viies 16:21 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
RPT-GERMAN FINANCE MINISTER SCHAEUBLE PLANS TO BAN SHORT SELLING FROM MIDNIGHT - COALITION SOURCES

GVI Forex Blog 16:05 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   

ImperialFxonline : Daily Usd/Majors Trading Signals

Miami JN 15:58 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

Perfecto. I check in at lunchtime and see I got filled on my t/p 1.2352., Nice day when it works out for a change. .

NYC ET 15:44 GMT May 18, 2010
stocks
Reply   
DJ back to flat on the day

GVI Forex Blog 15:43 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   
EUR wobbles in late Europe U.K. CPI steaming hot Hildebrand warns on CHF and Europe Will China revalue CNY this year?

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (18 May 2010)

GVI Forex Blog 15:39 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   
Yesterday's late rally in the US session buoyed risk appetite in the Asian and European trading sessions. In Asia equity markets closed higher, while European markets made modest gains, helping US equity indices open higher for the first time in four sessions. However

Forex Blog - US Market Update (Trade the News)

tokyo rana 15:36 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

holding long....ihope this time get 135.200 seems nice.....
happy trade,

GVI Forex Blog 15:07 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   
May 18 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Wednesday will see revised Industrial Output data from Japan. In Europe, the latest Bank of England policy minutes will be released. In North America, the U.S. weekly mortgage statistics, CPI, weekly energy data and the latest Fed Minutes will be released.

GVI Forex- Data Outlook for May 19, 2010

GVI Forex john 15:02 GMT May 18, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

May 18 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS: Wednesday will see revised Industrial Output data from Japan. In Europe, the latest Bank of England policy minutes will be released. In North America, the U.S. weekly mortgage statistics, CPI, weekly energy data and the latest Fed Minutes will be released.


 

 

WEDNESDAY

 

 

4:30

JA

Ind Out Mar r

n/a

0.30%

8:30

UK

BOE Minutes

n/a

n/a

11:00

US

WK Mortgage Stats

n/a

n/a

12:30

US

core CPI Apr

0.20%

0.00%

12:30

US

CPI mm Apr

0.10%

0.10%

14:30

US

EIA Crude mn

0.7

1.9

17:30

US

EIA Distillate mn

1.0

1.4

15:30

US

EIA Gasoline mn

-1.1

-2.8

14:30

US

EIA Cap Util

88.40%

88.40%

18:00

US

Fed Minutes

n/a

n/a



lkwd jj 15:00 GMT May 18, 2010
fx
Reply   
been rather quiet last 45 min. tight ranges....

newtown G 14:55 GMT May 18, 2010
Oh And Uh
Reply   
Anybody here have connection issues with Oh And Uh today?
They tell me my problems were due to my internet connection with them.

tokyo rana 14:49 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

you short 131?
happy trade,

jkt-aye 14:48 GMT May 18, 2010
aud/yen

AUDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

H4 closing below 81.15 will invite bears brigade to push it toward 77 ... imvho.

Miami JN 14:47 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

I took back 1/2 at 1.2376 as plan works out and moving stop now to b/e.

Miami JN 13:38 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd : Reply
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.2435 Target: 1.2350 Stop: 1.2442

I couldn't get this posted in real time as the move up happened too quick. Stop is above the high for the day. My plan is to take half back below 1.24 and try to hold the rest.

lkwd jj 14:47 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

have to avg in lows from 13150 as well..

tokyo rana 14:47 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

Buy
Entry: 133.6 Target: open Stop: open

now long again lets see this time hows my luck...
short 20pips plus total today 313pips plus....
target was 300 to 500pips today..
happy trade,

hk ooozmeeh 14:47 GMT May 18, 2010
DJ FOCUS: Risk Of Waning Official Support Scratches Euro Nerves
Reply   
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The euro's white-knuckle tumble to a four-year low in
recent days has raised an inevitable question: will the market's biggest
investors start pulling out?

Many currency-market watchers are growing increasingly jumpy that central
bank reserve managers--some of the biggest investors in the world--could be
having second thoughts about their euro holdings as the European debt crisis
highlights ugly flaws in the currency's structure.

Signs are emerging that some reserve managers are taking fright.

Monday, it emerged that Russia had trimmed its euro holdings, from 47.5% of
the total, to 43.8%. And Iran's central bank chief said Tuesday that the euro's
decline may prompt a rethink on its foreign-currency reserves.

South Korea's central bank said last week that the euro zone's sovereign debt
stresses are hitting the European single currency's attraction as a reserve
currency.

As such worries build, those who believe that the euro is set for a
catastrophic fall grow more confident.

"This is all consistent with a trend that has been developing, where we're
seeing central banks that have been diversifying into euros slowing down that
process," said Ian Stannard, a currencies analyst at French bank BNP Paribas,
which expects to see the euro sink by a further 20% to parity against the
dollar by the early part of next year.

"They are concerned about the euro, for obvious reasons, and hence the
weighting of the euro of their holdings is going down," Stannard added.

So far, the hard evidence of a flight from the euro among these slow-moving
and very conservative investors is patchy, and it inevitably comes with a lag.
Russia's reduction in euro holdings, for example, in fact happened by the end
of last year, before the Greek crisis got into full flow.

tokyo rana 14:43 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

why so low avg?
im 133.900 target 20pips only...
than load long...
happy trade,

lkwd jj 14:42 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

short 13378 avg

tokyo rana 14:41 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

Dear lkwd jj,
your short or long gbpjpy?
happy trade,

Clearwater EW 14:36 GMT May 18, 2010
aud/yen

Im looking at a long position below 80.50 maybe wrong though
thanks for your view

Clearwater EW 14:34 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

thanks for the view I thought weak too

Lahore FM 14:32 GMT May 18, 2010
aud/yen

a long makes better sense to me on this pair,audusd is not going down and usdjpy is decidedly up as far as charts go barring any fat finger...

lkwd jj 14:31 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

shorted at 83. looks weak again. 293 very nice!!

Clearwater EW 14:30 GMT May 18, 2010
aud/yen
Reply   
Sell AUDJPY
Entry: 81.2 Target: 80.50 Stop:

any comments or suggestions welcome

jkt-aye 14:30 GMT May 18, 2010
confused

jkt-aye 11:25 GMT May 18, 2010
just short silver (@18.65 for 17.95 sl 19.05) and gbpjpy (@134.08 for 133.08 sl 134.68)...do i make a wrong choice ?

-----

zero sum game........over&out

tokyo rana 14:27 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

long closed with 20pips plus..again short...
today so far 293pips...
happy trade,

GVI Forex Blog 14:18 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   
Price action on EUR/USD, a daily chart of which is shown, dipped below 1.2300 support on Monday (5/17/2010) before correcting back up above that level and consolidating as of early Tuesday (5/18/2010)

Chart of the Day - 5/18/2010 – EUR/USD

tokyo rana 14:16 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

Buy GBPJPY
Entry: 133.697 Target: 135.200 Stop: open

shorts closed with 80pips plus.....
so far today 273pips......
now small long for today and tomorrow lets see wat happen this time.......
happy trade,

nyc ws 14:14 GMT May 18, 2010
forex and stocks
Reply   
Hyper sensitive forex-stock correlation It is hard to tell which is leading and which is following.

Chicago sc 13:58 GMT May 18, 2010
EURUSD
Reply   
Hard for me to get a feel today. Markets consolidating, but basic trend in EURUSD (downward) should resume at some point. Just trying to avoid getting back on too soon.

tokyo rana 13:56 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

when we break this range 132.800 to 135.200 than on ret take next position long or short....
happy trade,

tokyo rana 13:43 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY

Ukraine Mishka,
ithink stay in range today 135.2 to 132.800....
istill hold shorts if up than add more shorts if down than go long...
so lets see...
happy trade,

Miami JN 13:39 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

Oops,, high of the day is at 1.2445.

Miami JN 13:38 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd
Reply   
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.2435 Target: 1.2350 Stop: 1.2442

I couldn't get this posted in real time as the move up happened too quick. Stop is above the high for the day. My plan is to take half back below 1.24 and try to hold the rest.

GVI Forex Blog 13:26 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   

U.S. Stocks Strengthen as Demand for Risk Picks Up

GVI Forex Blog 13:23 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   

Swiss National Bank Promises Decisive Action

Melbourne Qindex 13:21 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/USD : Current Comments

GBP/USD : The market is basically trapped between a resistant barrier of 1.4436 // 1.4522 and a supporting barrier of 1.4175 // 1.4262.

Amsterdam Purk 13:20 GMT May 18, 2010
A bear remains a bear

ah, a fact. So you say it is a fact that we go to 1,29? When? 1 day, 2 days? 1 month? a year?

Ukraine Mishka 13:18 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/JPY
Reply   
tokyo rana what's your view about gbp/jpy for today? Thankyou!

Saar KaL 13:06 GMT May 18, 2010
daily and weekly

oil
daily 71.4081 69.5190
weekly 74.7223 68.7418
hhmm

Saar KaL 12:57 GMT May 18, 2010
daily and weekly

usdchf w 1.1447 1.1160
daily 1.1373 1.1258
=== no more longs on that pair

GVI Forex john 12:40 GMT May 18, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support



Housing data. Starts very strong/permits very weak. Could be related to the end-April expiration of home buyers tax credit.

Melbourne Qindex 12:37 GMT May 18, 2010
GBP/USD : Current Comments
Reply   
GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is below 1.4404. The bias is on the downside when the market is trading under 1.4473.

HK [email protected] 12:35 GMT May 18, 2010
A bear remains a bear
Reply   
The fact that Euro may retrace all the way back to 1.29xx, does not mean the bear market is over, and likely the downtrend will resume.

Saar KaL 12:34 GMT May 18, 2010
daily and weekly

usdjpy w 93.3534 90.7942
usdjpy d 93.0925 92.0535
===============

eurjpy d 115.4878 113.8670
eurjpy w 115.8590 112.1882
watch out baby!!

jkt-aye 12:31 GMT May 18, 2010
confused



GBPJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

feel the temptation ?

GVI Forex Blog 12:30 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   
Austerity – there’s a word you don’t hear everyday ... errrrrrr?

Remember Latvia?

Saar KaL 12:26 GMT May 18, 2010
daily and weekly



audusd daily 0.8825 0.8713

audusd weekly 0.9002 0.8702

sofia kaprikorn 12:21 GMT May 18, 2010
bottom fishing
Reply   
Buy EURCHF
Entry: 1.4026 Target: 1.4222 Stop: 1.3976

borrowed OGA's trade idea - the R/R is very good here..

London Chris 12:19 GMT May 18, 2010
Trend trade

The market is still bearish euro and buying a rally is a leap of faith that there will be more book squaring. I prefer to wait out the correction to re-enter. GL on the trade.

HK [email protected] 12:19 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro

Lebanon 11:32 GMT May 18, 2010

Formidable resistances meant to be broken.

Prague mark 12:15 GMT May 18, 2010
Trend trade

Right...25-25 is coming :) Lt's sqezzzzz

GVI Forex Blog 12:15 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   

FX Thoughts for the day : 18-May-2010 - 1213 GMT

Saar KaL 12:14 GMT May 18, 2010
daily and weekly
Reply   
eurusd weekly expected
1.2531 1.2230
daily 1.2448 1.2325

i dont think has much to go
===========

cable
week 1.4698 1.4339
day 1.4548 1.4387
==========

gbpjpy
week 136.0371 131.2940
day 134.9441 132.8568
===messing with hourly...etc is not good
gl

w usdcad 1.0463 1.0157
d usdcad 1.0385 1.0266
i think about to change direction

sofia kaprikorn 12:04 GMT May 18, 2010
Trend trade
Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.2430 Target: 1.2525 Stop: 1.2388

entered now.

GVI Forex Jay 12:03 GMT May 18, 2010
EUR/USD

I posted this earlier on GVI Forex and note EUR/USD held the initial test of 1.2439 (briefly through it). Contact me for a free trial.

Charts show little worth noting between 1.24-1.25. 1.2439 = 23.6% of 1.3093-1.2237.

Gen dk 12:00 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex john 11:49 GMT May 18, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Data @ 12:30 GMT

Producer Price Index (PPI)
PPI seen tame


The PPI is a price index designed to measure the level of wholesale prices in a given economy. Its another input into the policy making decisions of central banks.


Home Starts/Permits
Starts seen better/Permits seen weaker

New Home Sales record sales of U.S. newly constructed residences. The U.S. Census Bureau publishes New Home Sales statistics monthly.

GVI Forex Jay 11:46 GMT May 18, 2010
EUR/USD
Reply   


1 hour chart. 100 hour mva currently 1.2484

Lebanon 11:32 GMT May 18, 2010
Euro
Reply   
the euro/usd is facing a strong resistance .. very strong one .. any body has a view of what may happen ?!

jkt-aye 11:30 GMT May 18, 2010
confused

yes rana...after 2 days riding it south, i just trying one more shoot on it before seek the other ways. thx

tokyo rana 11:27 GMT May 18, 2010
confused

jkt-aye,
gbpjpy seems want go up....
but ur target is not impossible.....
good luck...
happy trade,

jkt-aye 11:25 GMT May 18, 2010
confused
Reply   
Sell
Entry: Target: Stop:

just short silver (@18.65 for 17.95 sl 19.05) and gbpjpy (@134.08 for 133.08 sl 134.68)...do i make a wrong choice ?

tokyo rana 11:22 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

Dear Vienna GD,
yeah exactly thats what im seeing...
im sorry for poor english....
i cud not explain it better....
happy trade,
regards

GVI Forex Blog 10:57 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   
The euro edged up in choppy trade on Tuesday, holding steady above the previous day's four-year lows, as investors grew slightly less pessimistic over euro zone countries' ability to tackle their debts.

FOREX NEWS - Euro edges up vs dollar as investor gloom eases

GVI Forex john 10:55 GMT May 18, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support



Earlier: U.K. inflation a concern...

GVI Forex john 10:54 GMT May 18, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support



EZ CPI. Not a concern at the moment...

Vienna GD 10:44 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

Agree ... guess da market makers (and CBs) will have to produce these extraordinairy wild swings, to get rid again of all those betting short indices. There's a lot of money to be made - with shorting indices (and yen-crosses) into summer - market makers money! and they know it well. So they (have to) arange another moonshot here. To get again rid if those damned shorts.

Then - within again very shortterm timeframe - the next mind boggeling selloff and plunge. And possibly even a close of markets for some time.

tokyo rana 10:22 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

Dear Vienna GD,
ithink it shud go above 140.600 and below 146 time idonot know than 119 to125 this is wat im seeing...simply im seeing top between 140.600 to146.....next 119 more likely as AS keep saying always im agree with him....
it can take all move like 1 to 3months......
this week stay below 137 above 132 ithink....
my simple guess maybe im wrong so lets see....
please write your viiew....
happy trade,
regards

Vienna GD 10:17 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

correction:
...
Also eventually we have to differ inbetween indices and yen, with the latter yield dependant - and considerable inflationairy pressures to expect for 2nd half of 2010.

Vienna GD 10:14 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

140+ towards end of May - 27/28th +/- a few days or so?
at least that would fit with my time cycles

Eventually Mon/Tue first top - and Fri 2nd top - before next wave south (except an inversion and even up into mid june - unlikely though)?

Also eventually we have to differ inbetween indices and yen, with the latter yield - and considerable inflationairy pressures to expect for 2nd half of 2010.

Time part of your system?

manila tom 10:12 GMT May 18, 2010
sell euro
Reply   

Entry: 1.2411 Target: 1.2288 Stop: 1.2458

sell euro as I think it will have a hard time passing 1.2450

GVI Forex Blog 10:07 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   
The EUR/USD remains above its fair value purchasing power parity level at 1.15 but more downside is expected especially as the US economy is on the recovery track. The highlights of this session were the ZEW release and UK CPI

European Market Update: European equities pare gains after German ZEW data reflects EU debt concerns

tokyo rana 10:01 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

Dear Vienna GD,
thank you very much for post...
i am just lucky i have simple system im new trader....
i am thinking long between 133.700 to 132.800....
this move is slow so maybe 132.800 difficult....
i still favor north even gbpjpy struggled around 134.7 next attampt shud be clear this wave will be very choppy istill think 140plus but move will be slow untill 136 137...
happy trade,
best regards

GVI Forex Blog 09:58 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   
10:00 GMT- May 18 (global-view.com) The EUR stabilized vs. the USD at around the 1.2400 level late Monday and it has been holding around that line. The German ZEW sent mixed signals with the current conditions index much stronger than expected but the expectations index much weaker than seen.

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Correction Phase

GVI Forex john 09:53 GMT May 18, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support


The Daily Forex View

Correction Phase

10:00 GMT- May 18 (global-view.com) The EUR stabilized vs. the USD at around the 1.2400 level late Monday and it has been holding around that line. The German ZEW sent mixed signals with the current conditions index much stronger than expected but the expectations index much weaker than seen.

MORE



Gen dk 09:48 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Vienna GD 09:47 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

Hi Rana,
how are you?
May I ask why you are so accurate in your projections - regarding gbpjpy?
Can't remember a trader in my last 8 years which was that accurate.
Either you must have a exceptional well working system - or you are pretty well connected.
No problem - just amazing to see something like that.
Further gl & many gt

ps: what next - 132.8 or 170 pips north from here?

GVI Forex Blog 09:44 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   
Traders anticipate the publication of the Japanese Gross Domestic Product.

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 18/05/2010

Lebanon 09:02 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

I go long now

Goodluck

tokyo rana 08:58 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

lebanon dear,
i m waiting for 132.800......
already double top.....

lets see...
happy trade,

Lebanon 08:57 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

Maybe better to close short here ... but i will wait a little more

GoodLuck

Syd 08:41 GMT May 18, 2010
U.K. consumer price inflation
Reply   
U.K. consumer price inflation accelerated to its highest level in April since November 2008, requiring Bank of England Governor Mervyn King to write an explanatory letter to the government.
Despite the strong inflation reading, it is highly likely that the BOE will keep monetary policy extremely loose for many months to come, in the face of aggressive fiscal tightening, strains in the banking sector and the weakness of the U.K.'s main trading partner, the euro zone.
But persistently high inflation is a worry for members of the BOE's Monetary Policy Committee, who have expressed concerns that strong price growth could push up public inflation expectations, resulting in further price gains.
The U.K.'s central bank governor is obliged to write to the Chancellor of the Exchequer once every three months that annual inflation is more than one percentage point above or below the central bank's 2.0% target.
The written response by chancellor George Osborne will be closely watched for any indication of the newly installed coalition government's attitude toward the central bank.

Both letters are expected to be released at 0930GMT.

Syd 08:37 GMT May 18, 2010
BOJ May Unveil Outline Of Lending Support Plan Fri
Reply   
BOJ policy board, at end of 2-day meeting which starts Thursday, may unveil broad outline of its plans to support economic growth by encouraging private banks to boost lending, though it will likely put off deciding on final details until June or later, people familiar with matter say; BOJ will likely begin offering loans lasting around 6-12 months at 0.1% to banks, which will be required to lend out all those funds to companies, they say.

tokyo rana 08:35 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

Lebanon,
ithink in this pair if im use stop lost ilose to much money....
this pair is crazy as you can see....
happy trade,

Syd 08:34 GMT May 18, 2010
UK April CPI Annual Rate Highest Since November 2008
Reply   
UK Apr Annual Mtge Interest Payments +4.7%, Highest In 2 Yrs
UK April RPI Annual Rate Highest In 18 Years

Lebanon 08:31 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

Dear Rana , Why you dont use a Stop lose ?

tokyo rana 08:22 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

Sell GBPJPY
Entry: 134.518 Target: 133.500 Stop: open

happy trade,

tokyo rana 08:20 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

Buy GBPJPY
Entry: 133.500 Target: 135.200 Stop: open

now short for 100pips......
than long for 170pips....

today so far 193pips plus...........

happy trade,

Lebanon 08:20 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

whats ur target my friend Rana ? i am into 134.00
GoodLuck

Syd 08:10 GMT May 18, 2010
SNB Bought EUR5.5B Monday In FX Actions -BNP
Reply   
The Swiss National Bank probably bought about EUR5.5B Monday as it tries to curb the decline in EUR/CHF, says BNP Paribas. "The SNB has become a significant global buyer of EUR, thereby substantially smoothing the downfall in the euro," it says.

tokyo rana 08:09 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

Lebanon my dear friend....im now short 134.518...
happy trade,

Syd 08:07 GMT May 18, 2010
AUD Outlook Positive On Improved Sentiment -RBS
Reply   
The outlook for AUD remains positive on the back of buoyant growth in China and Asia, and as global risk sentiment picks up after recent week's sell off, RBS says. The bank sees the next RBA rate hike in August, and says that ongoing global economic recovery and dampened sovereign debt worries could boost risk currencies, such as the CAD and the NZD.

Lebanon 08:06 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

I Short now ..

GoodLuck

tokyo rana 08:02 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

lebanon,
im going to close long here 134.500 and short a same rate....
short target 100 to 200pips...
happy trade,

HK [email protected] 08:00 GMT May 18, 2010
JPY
Reply   
Buy USDJPY
Entry: ~92.75 Target: 94.5 Stop: 92.30

.

EU THE EURO QUEEN 07:53 GMT May 18, 2010
here we go
Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

we are at the begining of a new move to the Euro a strong move hopefully..

happy trade

HK [email protected] 07:47 GMT May 18, 2010
Green Mkts. good for the Euro.
Reply   
More green in Asian Stock Mkts. Maybe in Europe even greener.

Syd 07:45 GMT May 18, 2010
EUR At Good Entry Point For China Reserves - ANZ
Reply   
Rather than selling EUR, China should buy single unit at low now as part of ongoing process to diversify USD-heavy foreign-exchange reserves, says Li-gang Liu, head of China economics at ANZ; "I don't think China will sell euro at this moment, because if they sell, they will be registering huge losses," Liu says. "I'd think that this is a very good entry point for the exchange reserves to diversify from current U.S. dollar heavy assets to more balanced asset classes by including more euro assets." Adds, chance of EUR collapse "highly improbable," China forex reserves, sovereign wealth fund look at long-term returns, rather than short-term volatility. PBOC also likely to boost gold reserves to level on par with developed countries. "For the renminbi to become a convertible currency, other than credible policies, you also need credible gold backing," Liu says. "I think that's the motivation that PBOC will definitely look into."

HK [email protected] 07:43 GMT May 18, 2010
1.2475 needed.
Reply   
The next stage for Euro to keep the rising momentum and force the NGOs Euro-shorts to donate money for Greece salvage, will be when and IF 1.2475 will be seen.

That will open the way to the return of 1.2770 or more.

tokyo rana 07:32 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

im so fine 200pips in bag and just at the start of day...
ihope come to my target other wise iget sad....
ihope go up to 135.200 with in hour time....
lets see wat happen next...
good luck my friend always,

Lebanon 07:29 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

Hey Rana , I am fine thanks , what about you ?!
yes it seems good day ..
wish u best luck

tokyo rana 07:28 GMT May 18, 2010
Usd/Jpy

short around 93 seems good little wait.....

tokyo rana 07:26 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

Lebanon,
good morning,
how are you?
just another 45pips than short....
icannot wait for next 45pips...
happy trade,

Lebanon 07:26 GMT May 18, 2010
Usd/Jpy
Reply   
Sell USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

I Think to sell usd/jpy now .. target 20-40 pips

tokyo rana 07:19 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

Lebanon,
cool cool....
im so happy right now ihope get my targets today.....
good luck....
happy trade,

Lebanon 07:17 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

GoodMorning Rana ,
I am long now , taking some pips then short ..

Goodluck

Syd 07:15 GMT May 18, 2010
China buying AUD at lows
Reply   
Talk that China were buying Aud at the low 8687 level, and again in today on the low in Asia around 87 fwiw

tokyo rana 07:14 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

Sell GBPJPY
Entry: 135.200 Target: 134.200 Stop: open

long holding still target 200pips...
morning had 62pips...
total todays taget 450pips long and short both......
happy trade,
regards

Melbourne Qindex 07:12 GMT May 18, 2010
EUR/USD : Current Comments

EUR/USD : The next supporting barrier is 1.2117 // 1.2183 when the market downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the Monday low at 1.2237.

Melbourne Qindex 07:09 GMT May 18, 2010
EUR/USD : Current Comments

EUR/USD : The daily cycle matrix system is still a good reference for the time being. Basically the consolidating range is 1.2282 - 1.2414.


Melbourne Qindex 05:00 GMT May 18, 2010
EUR/USD : Current Comments : Reply
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is below 1.2315, i.e. below the daily cycle matrix system at 1.2315 - 1.2375 - 1.2428.

HK [email protected] 07:07 GMT May 18, 2010
EURO

HK Kevin 06:47 GMT May 18, 2010

The Aus/usd is moving in correlation with the Euro this time.

For this time I may say that a chance to reach 0.8850 is reasonable, and may serve as a break on the downtrend.

For the rest need more time to see where will prices go.

Syd 07:04 GMT May 18, 2010
UBS should trade $0.9000 in a month
Reply   
Strategists at UBS said despite the RBA's cautious outlook, inflation will likely mean they will have little option but to tighten again in coming months.

"The RBA is only on pause for now. As such, a renewed rise in inflation expectations will likely support the central bank in considering additional tightening in rates," they wrote, forecasting the unit should trade US$0.9000 in the month.

HK [email protected] 07:01 GMT May 18, 2010
Where will the money come from
Reply   
K.I.S

Today the first tranche of the rescue package for Greece has to be delivered.

Where to get the fastest money?

Force the Euro-Specs.-shorts out of their positions and let them liquidate.

That may produce several B$ for the banks, to finance Greece.

HK Kevin 06:47 GMT May 18, 2010
EURO

HK [email protected] 05:21 GMT, any views on the AUD/USD? My 1st buy entered earlier before lunch. Stop at 0.8591 and bet for a return to 0.90 level.

Syd 06:35 GMT May 18, 2010
EUR/USD Rises On PBOC Comments - Dealer
Reply   
EUR/USD off earlier lows after Dow Jones report that PBOC advisor says EUR's recent woes won't affect China's plans for FX reserves diversification, says Yuichiro Harada, senior FX dealer at Mizuho Corporate Bank. Comments from advisor Xia Bin "were positive for the euro because they suggest the PBOC isn't in a rush to dump its holdings in the currency," Harada says. Adds this comes amid some speculation that EUR/USD's falls Monday may have marked at least a short-term bottom; says for that reason now "the large accumulation of euro-dollar shorts built up for half a year since December may be leading to a situation where short-covering could be a bit more dominant." EUR/USD last 1.2369, says may rise to 1.2420-1.2430 later in global day. Says breach of that level could prompt more players to get behind EUR-buying. EUR/JPY also up, last 114.75 from earlier low 113.75. Says risk-sensitive cross also helped by return to positive territory in some Asian bourses

Syd 06:27 GMT May 18, 2010
European Forex Technicals: EUR Staging Corrective Gains
Reply   
European Forex Technicals: EUR Staging Corrective Gains

Syd 06:25 GMT May 18, 2010
RBA Ellis Says Australia Not In Credit-Fueled Housing Boom
Reply   
Ellis said government policy to support first-time home buyers, unusually low interest rates over an extended period of time and a rise in unemployment that wasn't as bad as had been feared have led to rising home prices. The central banker said that even when adjusting for inflation, housing prices have risen about 12% over the past year in major Australian cities.
While the growth serves as evidence of Australia's comparably robust economy, Ellis added population growth is "now running noticeably faster than growth in the dwelling stock," fueling concerns about supply that must be addressed by a pick-up in construction and not by any change in lending standards.

"Recent data suggests we do not have a credit-fueled speculative boom on our hands. It would not be desirable for the current situation to turn into one," said Ellis.

tokyo rana 06:08 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

wat a luck i bought almost at lowest today..


tokyo rana 18:12 GMT May 17, 2010
jpy : Reply
Buy GBPJPY
Entry: 133.100 Target: open Stop: open

i have set here long entry...
short target 40pips only......
ithink tokyo session will be see low around 132.800 to 133.100...

better sleep now....
happy trade,

tokyo rana 18:03

Syd 05:58 GMT May 18, 2010
SNB Defends EUR/CHF At 1.40; No Upside Seen
Reply   
The Swiss National Bank is probably active in the currency market, defending EUR/CHF at 1.40, though this is unlikely to reverse the downward euro trend, says Commerzbank. Merkel:

Greek rescue has shown Europe able to react when necessary – El Pais

RBA signals rates pause - but it might not last long
The RBA said the global economy continued to improve, despite concerns over Greece, which the board "spent considerable time discussing"."The major news on the domestic economy had been the further strengthening in commodity markets and the slightly higher-than-expected inflation data for the March quarter," the RBA said.
And there is more to come.
The expected resurgence to new highs by the terms of trade, the ratio of export to import prices, "would provide a large boost to nominal income", the RBA said."The latest forecasts suggested that domestic output growth was likely to strengthen over the next couple of years, with the expansionary effects of the rise in the terms of trade more than offsetting the scaling back of fiscal and monetary policy stimulus," the RBA said in the minutes.With the economy picking up pace and inflation skating on the thin ice near to top of its target range, the likely pause in the RBA's schedule of rate rises may not last very long.
Borrowers have not been let off; they have just been given a stay of execution.
AAP

Melbourne Qindex 05:57 GMT May 18, 2010
EUR/USD : Current Comments

Europe Theorist 05:09 GMT - Hi! I also notice that [1.0919] is a reasonable long term targeting point (see details in the "Long Term References for Position Traders".

Saar KaL 05:56 GMT May 18, 2010
EURUSD
Reply   
I think the general trend is still south
and i am short
still...
but getting out with profit holdings
seems i should wait till its above 1.2560 to short again

i think shorting usdcad and adding more will hedge well

tokyo rana 05:56 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

Ukraine Mishka,
idonot know...
im long ifeel it shud go 140plus...
happy trade,

Europe Theorist 05:52 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:


CNBC LIVE... ING BANK ANALYST RECOMMEND SHORT EUR TO 1.16/18 AS NEXT TARGET... broke 2008 lows and 2009 lows and easily broke the 123.8.... too much resistance @ 125.xx

Ukraine Mishka 05:50 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

How do you think, gbp/jpy will get to 135 or 136?























подать объявление

Syd 05:41 GMT May 18, 2010
FX Diversification L/T Trend -PBOC Adviser
Reply   
Sharp fall in euro won't affect China's diversification of its massive foreign exchange reserves, PBOC adviser Xia Bin tells Dow Jones. "Diversification is a long-term trend...the U.S. dollar is still the key currency as China diversifies its forex reserves," he says, adding China should continue to increase its holdings in gold over long run. Xia's comments -- among first from Chinese officials since euro fell to 4-year low yesterday -- suggest world's largest holder of forex reserves isn't about to dump euros amid sovereign debt crisis in Europe.

tokyo rana 05:40 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

Buy GBPJPY
Entry: 133.200 Target: open Stop: open

gbpjpy shorts close with 62pips plus...
now long lets see....
happy trade,

Ukraine Mishka 05:37 GMT May 18, 2010
gbp/jpy
Reply   
Hi everyone! any suggestion about gbp/jpy? Thankyou

Europe Theorist 05:34 GMT May 18, 2010
ANALOGICAL
Reply   
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Most of us are aware of the very old fairly tale by Hans Christian Andersen in which two weavers promise an emperor the finest suit of clothes imaginable, but from a fabric invisible to anyone who is unfit for his position or "just hopelessly stupid". Well, in the fairy tale it turns out that nobody wants to admit that they are "unfit" or "stupid", so when the emperor parades before his subjects in his imaginary new suit of clothes, it takes a child to cry out: "But he isn't wearing anything at all!"


Well, many of us have been declaring that the world economy "has no clothes" for some time now, but when the anchor of NBC News declares it on national television it gets a bit more attention. During his recent appearance on The Late Show with David Letterman, NBC's Brian Williams was asked about the world financial situation. His answer included this shocking statement: "The world has no money, and the Emperor has no clothes."

Europe Theorist 05:28 GMT May 18, 2010
PBOC Adviser: Euro Woes Won't Affect China FX Reserves Diversification

Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Reposted.....

Beware of what you wish for. So what will happen if Congress & co. ultimately gets its wish? There are two immediate consequences, neither of which are subtle in their effects:

First, the price of every Chinese import (think Wal Mart) will immediately and proportionately increase, manifesting as a round of high --though not yet hyper-- inflation. This will in turn serve to further reduce whatever is left of the U.S. consumers' discretionary budget, and thus push another unknown percentage of homeowners over the edge into further mortgage defaults and late credit card payments; items which, sad to say, U.S. Banksters are still allowed to point to as the initial cause for the on-going global crisis. After all, it's not their fault: they didn't see it coming.

The second consequence is, of course, that China itself will then obtain fewer dollars from trade --not only due to the numerical revaluation of its currency, but because consumers who buy in dollars will simply not be able to afford as many Chinese products. However, fewer dollars for the Chinese thus also directly reduces any commensurate need to buy U.S. Treasuries --even aside from the fact that they have already started withdrawing from that market, and may even be net sellers already. All this merely serves to exacerbate an already extent process of negative feedback: The less the demand for Treasuries, the lower the bidding price and the higher their yields become.

The government is then forced to borrow money at a higher rate of interest, which increases the risk of buying Treasuries in the first place, which lowers the demand, which increases the interest. Where does this interest payment come from? Declining tax revenues! --which is, no doubt, the very reason why certain congressional members want China to revalue the yuan relative to the dollar: i.e. in order to increase the "competitiveness" of U.S. exports! Funny, no?

Want to hear something even funnier? The greater bulk of Chinese imports are really coming from U.S. corporations, who have merely outsourced their labor pools to increase their profit margins by selling to whomever is still employed. All of this is commonly known, but corporate self-interest is a sacred cow. Here is Congress, attempting to force Chinese monetary policy in order to protect ourselves from the depredations of American corporate culture. How ironic is that!? One might hope that our politicians could connect at least two of the most obvious dots, and thus begin to suspect that real solutions might just lie much closer to home than Beijing.

So why did Tim Geithner make a sudden trip to China? Many seem to presume that it was to offer some kind of olive branch, though in truth, no details of discussions have yet been released; however, the most logical inference we can make is that he was, and is now, highly motivated to plead with the Chinese not to revalue their currency, for the very reasons just discussed. Maybe the gods just love a good comedy in which the antagonist is quickly hoisted on his own petard; because if the Chinese ever do accede to official Congressional demands, it will primarily be only because it suits their own purposes.

Syd 05:26 GMT May 18, 2010
PBOC Adviser: Euro Woes Won't Affect China FX Reserves Diversification
Reply   
The sharp weakening in the euro, amid Europe's sovereign-debt problems, won't affect China's diversification of its massive foreign-exchange reserves, an adviser to China's central bank said Tuesday.

"Diversification is a long-term trend," Xia Bin, an adviser to the People's Bank of China, told Dow Jones Newswires in a telephone interview.

"The U.S. dollar is still the key currency as China diversifies its forex reserves," said Xia, one of three academics on the central bank's monetary policy committee, which advises the PBOC.

He also said that China should continue to increase its holdings in gold over the long run.
Xia said China's stance on its currency reform is clear, reiterating the yuan exchange rate reform targets a managed, floating exchange-rate regime.

GVI Forex Blog 05:24 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   
The Australian dollar has penetrated the support at 0.8712 after a brief recovery to 0.9078 and the decline from the April 12 high of 0.9382 looks set to test the lower end of the broader range of

ImperialFXonline: Technical Analysis Report - AUD/USD

HK [email protected] 05:21 GMT May 18, 2010
EURO
Reply   
No Shorts should take my posts too seriously, as they are only a possibility of an event, much less as they are so convinced about their positions.

But sitting on a volcano of speculative Euro shorts, where likely the longs are held by large institutions, maybe a reason to be ready for an eruption, in which Spec. will try to exit from a very narrow gate.


Europe Theorist 05:09 GMT May 18, 2010
EUR/USD : Current Comments

Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:


I'm going on the fact that European Ministers & Gov's WANT a EURUSD @ 1.10 giving by default a 1% growth rate and providing the launch pad for faster recovery...

EURUSD up never again .... its going to be down and dirty thats the only way to go

Melbourne Qindex 05:08 GMT May 18, 2010
EUR/USD : Current Comments

EURJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/JPY : The weekly cycle pivot centers are located at 1.1991 - 1.2274 - 1.2305.

Melbourne Qindex 05:02 GMT May 18, 2010
EUR/USD : Current Comments

EUR/USD : The market is working on the barrier at 1.2308 // 1.2328.

Melbourne Qindex 05:00 GMT May 18, 2010
EUR/USD : Current Comments

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is below 1.2315, i.e. below the daily cycle matrix system at 1.2315 - 1.2375 - 1.2428.

Haifa ac 04:59 GMT May 18, 2010
French Fin Min:Parliament To Vote On Europe Stability Plan By End May

Syd 23:39 GMT May 17, 2010
French Fin Min:Parliament To Vote On Europe Stability Plan By End May: Reply
Lagarde: Euro Is A Solid Currency//
So is some waste.

Haifa ac 04:56 GMT May 18, 2010
eurusd

arrogant, aren't you?

HK [email protected] 04:56 GMT May 18, 2010
50/60 pips only. for Euro/Usd
Reply   
It is only a Q. of 50/60 pips upward price move to trigger a start of what MAY BE a longer upward Ret.

Shorts which may feel their positions stand and supported on chicken legs and their profits may be endangered may begin to exit.

Syd 04:45 GMT May 18, 2010
RBA Financial Stability Head Ellis: Upward Pressure On Housing Prices
Reply   
RBA Financial Stability Head Ellis: Upward Pressure On Housing Prices
RBA Ellis: Population Growth Creating 'Demand Shock' In Housing
RBA Ellis: Demand Issues Must Be Dealt With By Construction, Not Eased Lending Standards
RBA Ellis: House Price Growth Could Have Lasting Impact On Macroeconomy
RBA Ellis: House Price Growth Not A Credit-Fueled Speculative Boom
RBA Ellis: Lenders Must Remain Prudent In Their Standards
RBA Ellis: Prospective Borrowers Must Have Realistic Expectations

While the growth serves as evidence of Australia's comparably robust economy, Ellis added population growth is "now running noticeably faster than growth in the dwelling stock," fueling concerns about supply that must be addressed by a pick-up in construction and not by any change in lending standards.
The central banker warned rising home prices could drive up home loan losses and arrears and that under a worst-case scenario could even affect the country's overall economy, especially as population growth puts even more upward pressure on prices.

HK [email protected] 04:39 GMT May 18, 2010
EURO

HK JC 04:27 GMT May 18, 2010

You may read it again...There is an "unless" and reasons supporting such a Ret. to 1.29.

I didn't say that Euro is definitely going to 1.10 1.11.
So you may read things as I posted them

HK JC 04:27 GMT May 18, 2010
EURO

This morning, you said EUR may go to 1.29, now you said 1.10. View always change?

HK [email protected] 04:04 GMT May 18, 2010
EURO
Reply   
Euro is facing a decline to ~1.10 or ~1.11, unless being pulled up above ~1.2900. which seems a possibility in face of being oversold and of no country interest trading with Europe, and maybe not even of the ECB.

The only Q. is what will trigger such move if happens.

GVI Forex Blog 03:49 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   

Morning Briefing : 18-May-2010 - 0346 GMT

Syd 03:42 GMT May 18, 2010
RBA
Reply   
DJ Australia Henry: Expects Strong Demand For Australian Resources To Continue
Australia Henry: Expects High Terms Of Trade For Some Time
Australia Henry: Rent Taxes More Responsive To Economic Cycle
Australia Henry: Tax Cuts, Savings Incentives Should Always Be Considered Before A Savings Fund

Syd 03:22 GMT May 18, 2010
DJ Australia Treasury Secretary Henry: Australia Emerging From Downturn Faster Than Expected
Reply   
Australia Henry: Expects Strong Demand For Australian Resources To Continue

Despite sharp fall of EUR/USD of late, China unlikely to sell EUR in forex reserves for both financial, political reasons, says RBS China strategist Ben Simfendorfer; instead, notes China may increase purchases of U.S. Treasurys for new forex reserves in next 12 months as they're still most liquid, safest assets China can get. Says "it's always a challenge to manage $2 trillion plus foreign exchange reserves...especially when sovereign risks rise," but adds "China has limited options." Says China unlikely to sell EUR as it's a strategic partner with Europe, will be unhappy to see EUR/USD continue to tumble given its current EUR holdings. Expects China may be interested in buying more of "other assets" such as oil, gold, copper; but says those markets relatively small, China's purchase for forex management purpose in those markets could trigger a surge in prices, increasing import costs for China's industrial sector.

Syd 03:10 GMT May 18, 2010
Cheaper Euros Could Be Enticing For The PBOC
Reply   
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Beijing has been pretty quiet on the declining euro, and with good reason.

There's been some chatter in markets that central banks, including the big names in Asia, are starting to fret about the euro's decline, and even offloading some holdings.
We may never know for sure. But there's certainly no great impetus for the People's Bank of China--our champion of reserve diversification in Asia--to rush euros onto the market.

Not that long ago China was warning the U.S. about a deterioration in the U.S. dollar, reminding the world it had a vested interest in the dollar's value via its massive holdings of U.S. government debt.

The greenback's recovery courtesy of the euro's fall has eased those concerns. China is sitting prettier on its U.S. assets.
And while there's speculation the PBOC was a buyer of euros at the peak, it doesn't naturally follow that it would be selling into the declines.
European finance ministers are sounding concerned about the euro, but the European Central Bank has been much less vocal. The PBOC would probably fall into the sanguine camp alongside the ECB.

Finance ministers are much more minute-to-minute. They have exporters on their backs and manufacturers at the front door to worry about.

Central banks tend to be less concerned about daily currency wobbles, especially when it comes to their reserve accumulation. They will go into the markets to smooth things out, but for reserve strategy they look past the short term.

China is sticking with its plan to shift some new reserves into assets aside from the dollar, and the euro would make up a fair portion of that investment basket. And as long as the PBOC remains confident the euro is not going to collapse, and given its stated aim of limiting its reliance on the dollar, it may even be tempted to pick up euros on a cheaper basis.

China's central view is probably that the U.S. dollar is due for a long-term structural decline. Over time, fewer trades will be done in the greenback. It's in China's interest to keep euros on its books, and add to them as and when it can.

Syd 03:00 GMT May 18, 2010
Nikkei up 0.5%
Reply   
Nikkei up 0.5% at 10,281.40 midday as tech exporters rally on rebound in EUR/JPY, overnight U.S. stocks. Some gains pared by quick profit-taking as EUR/JPY briefly falls back under Y114.00, however. "It will be hard for the market to move up substantially until investors see clues that the (debt) problem in Europe will settle," says Teruhisa Ishikawa, general manager at Mizuho Investors Securities.


Su-Lin Ong, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets. The RBA's time on the sidelines could last until August, she said.
Still, the RBA said it expects the stimulatory effects of the commodity price upswing "would be building over the year ahead." "Members were conscious of the need for this not to result in a material worsening in the medium-term outlook for inflation," it said.

If the RBA does move to put rates on hold, it's time on the sidelines won't be long, and following that it may hike rates at a slower pace, said Scott Haslem, chief economist at UBS.
"Our impression remains the RBA believes it can move more gradually, now that monetary policy is no longer in a stimulatory positron," he said.
The RBA has raised rates six times since October 2009, taking the cash rate target to 4.50% at the start of May from 3.0% last year.
The RBA expects both core and headline inflation to drift toward the top end of its 2%-to-3% target band in the near term and remain there over a longer horizon.

Syd 02:49 GMT May 18, 2010
China's EUR Policy Still An Enigma - HSBC
Reply   
China's policymakers unlikely to offer hints of future policy regarding EUR but should be mindful of effects of currency's recent slide, says Richard Yetsenga, FX strategist with HSBC. Notes crisis now 2-pronged from Beijing's point of view, as weaker EUR hitting China's exports competitiveness in euro-zone, while European fiscal worries affecting global financial markets and, by extension, China's. Reckons Beijing likely boosted percentage of EUR within their FX reserves--the world's largest--in recent years, but pace, extent of purchases unclear. China is not part of IMF's reserve reporting system, which makes its reserve policy even more secretive than that of other countries, he adds.

Syd 02:30 GMT May 18, 2010
Japan's Miyazaki Prefecture Declares State Of Emergency Over Foot-And-Mouth Disease-Kyodo
Reply   
Japan's Miyazaki Prefecture Declares State Of Emergency Over Foot-And-Mouth Disease-Kyodo

Syd 01:45 GMT May 18, 2010
we need some reasons to sell the euro
Reply   
EUR falling, some Asian investors taking cue from U.S. Senate decision overnight, to justify their risk aversion, says senior dealer at major European bank in Tokyo. Another dealer in Tokyo echoes view saying "yes I know this isn't new, but at least we need some reasons to sell the euro. But we don't have any fresh factors in Asia, so some investors are getting a cue from this." U.S. Senate approves measure yesterday that would force Treasury Secretary to pledge to Congress that taxpayer money used in loans made by IMF to fiscally vulnerable countries be paid back in full.

Syd 01:39 GMT May 18, 2010
Reserve Bank of Australia
Reply   
Reserve Bank of Australia's May meeting minutes to boost expectations of policy pause in June, while maintaining market expectations of steady increase in rates in medium term. With May's rate rise of 25 bps "members felt this would leave monetary well placed for the present", according to minutes, suggesting pause possible. Also, board "spent considerable time" discussing impact of European sovereign debt concerns, found case to pause hikes, indicating any further flare ups in Europe will dull tightening bias. Still, RBA concerned about impact of resources boom, 20% rise in terms of trade in 2010 with members "conscious of the need for this not to result in material worsening in medium-term outlook for inflation" so any pause unlikely to last long

Syd 01:33 GMT May 18, 2010
RBA
Reply   
Australian interest rates are "well placed for the present" after the Reserve Bank of Australia tightened policy earlier this month to offset inflationary pressures from a resources boom, according to central bank minutes published Tuesday.

The remark will likely encourage expectations that the RBA will keep rates steady at its June meeting.

In minutes of its May 4 policy meeting, the RBA reiterated that if lenders responded to the rise in interest rates as expected "interest rates faced by most borrowers would then be at around their average levels over the past decade".

It also said there were early signs that hikes since October 2009 were starting to slow the economy "with retail sales subdued and housing loan approvals falling noticeably".

But the RBA said it expects the stimulatory effects of the commodity price upswing "would be building over the year ahead."

"Members were conscious of the need for this not to result in a material worsening in the medium-term outlook for inflation," it said.

The evolving sovereign debt crisis in Greece formed a backdrop to the meeting and was discussed at length, forming an argument to hold rates steady in May, it said.

The uncertainty in global financial markets formed the case "that could be made for a pause in the process of normalizing interest rates," the minutes said."There was a risk that the situation could worsen further, damaging the global economic recovery."

Overall, the comments are likely to strengthen the prevailing view in financial markets that the RBA will now go to the sidelines for a few months to assess the impact of hikes so far and to keep watch on global instability.

But the pause is unlikely to be lengthy given the mounting inflation risks in an economy starting to grow at above trend rates and receiving an income boost commodity price increases.

The RBA has raised rates six times since October 2009, taking the cash rate target to 4.50% at the start of May from 3.0% last year.

Recent global market jitters linked to concerns about the sovereign debt crisis in Europe have seen local markets scale down the potential for further RBA hikes near term.

Financial market pricing Tuesday suggested little if any chance of a further hike in June, with the RBA possibly on hold through until the fourth quarter of 2010.

The RBA raised its forecasts for inflation at the start of May in a quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy.

The RBA expects both core and headline inflation to drift toward the top end of its 2%-to-3% target band in the near term and remain there over a longer horizon.

GVI Forex Blog 01:31 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   

U.S. Stock Markets finish Mixed; Watch for Short-Covering Rally

GVI Forex Blog 01:30 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   

Oversold Conditions help Euro Close Higher

Greek Analist 01:28 GMT May 18, 2010
AUD May Rise If RBA Minutes Mention Inflation Risk Royal Bank of Scotland strategist Akane Uchida.

RBA minutes may also containe wording to the effect that the RBA is signalling a pause in interest rate hikes,,,,this is more important than the inflation issue for the short term fx market....a aud negative..so buy the aud prior to RBA report is not so simple..no free lucnch.......just to be aware.

jkt-aye 01:07 GMT May 18, 2010
AUD May Rise If RBA Minutes Mention Inflation Risk Royal Bank of Scotland strategist Akane Uchida.

Syd...is there any official schedule re- RBA minute ?

GVI Forex Blog 01:01 GMT May 18, 2010 Reply   
Euro bounces from 4-year low on short-covering as European officials remain confident The single currency recovered from a 4-year low against the dollar on Monday, paring its losses on the back of

ImperialFXonline : Daily FX Review

sofia kaprikorn 00:29 GMT May 18, 2010
overnight trade

sofia kaprikorn 23:36 GMT May 17, 2010
overnight trade : Reply
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

sold 1.2394/84 - stop 1.2444
>>>
target 1.2355
________________________
closed position at 1.2354 for + 40 pips

Syd 00:22 GMT May 18, 2010
AUD May Rise If RBA Minutes Mention Inflation Risk Royal Bank of Scotland strategist Akane Uchida.
Reply   
AUD may strengthen, particularly vs JPY, if RBA minutes due soon signal central bank remains worried about inflation since that's a sign RBA will keep hiking rates ahead, says Royal Bank of Scotland strategist Akane Uchida.

tokyo rana 00:14 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

Dear FM brother,

how are you?

thanx for kind post.....


thats why im planing to go long 1st ithink so gbpjpy go 140plus bfore any further drop........
happy trade,
best regards

Melbourne Qindex 00:13 GMT May 18, 2010
USD/CHF : Current Comments
Reply   
USD/CHF : The market is consolidating within the neutral barrier of 1.1307 // 1.1458 (1.1307 - 1.1319 - 1.1333 - 1.1348 - 1.1367 - 1.1399 - 1.1443 - 1.1458 - 1.1462).

Lahore FM 00:10 GMT May 18, 2010
jpy

Rana i can produce similar forecasts at rate of 30 an hour.if such and such price level breaks then this level next,i would be able to give some plausible tech explanation too.

basically saying that some of these wild goose predictions are best taken with a pinch of salt.

right now and rest of the week will be marked by a weak jpy...this is my prediction,,,this will mean all jpy pairs bias higher even if the other currency on the pair not strong or even a bit weak.

 




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