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Forex Forum Archive for 08/15/2010

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tokyo rana 23:51 GMT August 15, 2010

Entry: 109 Target: 113/114 Stop: 20pips

ithink here this pair make important bottom...iwill buy also gbpjpy 133 target 138/140but small both eurjpy and gbpjpy..happy day

tokyo rana 23:48 GMT August 15, 2010
Entry: 60.05/59.70nzdjpy Target: 200/500pips Stop: 100pips

ihave entries here...iwill buy heavly....happy day,

tokyo rana 23:38 GMT August 15, 2010
Dollar-Yen May Fall to 75

usdjpy 4h again topped out as i said friday night usdjpy max 30 to 80pips than topped out and eurusd same 30 to 80pips than make important bottom...lets see wat happen from here...happy day,

Syd 23:13 GMT August 15, 2010
China Becomes Issue In Australian Election
Opposition leader Tony Abbott has called Australia's role in the region a "kind of a neighborhood watch scheme in support of Western values." Mr. Abbott has also said his coalition of center-right parties could revise foreign investment laws if it wins, applying closer scrutiny to farm purchases and promising to "sell the food, rather than sell the farm." Ian McCubbin, whose legal firm Norton Rose says Australia is viewed by China as a "difficult jurisdiction" for deals since Labor announced plans for a profits-based tax on mining companies in May. The proposal played a role in the ouster of former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd by his own party in June amid concerns it was an electoral liability and claims it would damage Australia's reputation with overseas investors.

tokyo rana 23:12 GMT August 15, 2010
Dollar-Yen May Fall to 75

tokyo ginko 23:07 GMT August 15, 2010
i welcome ur and everyones posts always....

tokyo rana 23:11 GMT August 15, 2010
Dollar-Yen May Fall to 75

tokyo ginko 23:07 GMT August 15, 2010
does not matter ican be wrong...ican lose my money...but no change in bias usdjpy is bear flag...happy day,

tokyo rana 23:09 GMT August 15, 2010
Dollar-Yen May Fall to 75

tokyo ginko 23:05 GMT August 15, 2010
no doing well...ihave stops....ijust wanted to say good luck with ur trade.....only time will tell all...happy day,

tokyo ginko 23:07 GMT August 15, 2010
Dollar-Yen May Fall to 75

tokyo rana,

my last message is for you...go on toss a coin, it is easy..u will see only head or tail..50% chance of winning..

tokyo rana 23:06 GMT August 15, 2010
short usd is best!
Entry: 1.27575 Target: 1.46/1.56 Stop: 150pips

honestly im targeting 1000pips time frame 3month like nov 2010....i know everyone call me foolish bullish on euro against usd...but this thinking can be change....right now very bullish on euro...usdjpy short target 1000 to 1500pips after drop buy usdjpy..happy day,

tokyo ginko 23:05 GMT August 15, 2010
Dollar-Yen May Fall to 75

yes, agreed.

my cost for long usd/jpy now is @ 87.15

for trading, it is not about wrong or right, it is about money management.

anyone can make a good call today and make a bad call tomorrow. it is easy, just like choosing head or tail, what other ways to go?

as for you my friend, i'm just saying if you are so convince with your game plan, i just hope you put your money where your mouth is...because if not, it is just pure easy talk..anyone can do it...

tokyo rana 23:00 GMT August 15, 2010
Incurable trader psychology. 10000000000000000%

HK [email protected] 22:54 GMT August 15, 2010
im just follow my guru is very good...

Syd 22:59 GMT August 15, 2010
Korea's Won, Rupee Lead Asian Currencies Lower This Week as Growth Cools
Korea's Won, Rupee Lead Asian Currencies Lower This Week as Growth Cools
South Korea’s won and the Indian rupee led declines in Asian currencies this week as investors sought the relative safety of the dollar as economic reports fanned concern the global recovery is losing momentum. LINK

tokyo rana 22:59 GMT August 15, 2010
Incurable trader psychology. 10000000000000000%

HK [email protected] 22:54 GMT August 15, 2010
Dear Sir,im not just going with trend...reality is reality....i have stops....

USDJPY SHORT 86.255 target open STOP 87.50
EURUSD LONG 1.27575 target open stop 150pips
GBPJPY short 134.575 target 133 stop 135.50 not sure maybe add on risse

EURJPY short 110.775 target 109 stop open maybe add on rise..

ihope this help u....

happy day,

HK [email protected] 22:54 GMT August 15, 2010
Incurable trader psychology. 10000000000000000%
tokyo rana 22:41 GMT August 15, 2010

You are emotionally attached to your trade and any suggestion that things may go against you make you jump to the air.

This kind of attitude makes you ignore any stop loss because you will believe the market is wrong, but you are right and hope things may after all change in your favor, until you may be out of your money.
You didn't change and you will never change but this is really not my concern.

tokyo rana 22:51 GMT August 15, 2010
Dollar-Yen May Fall to 75

iwill short usd against gbp also soon....

tokyo rana 22:50 GMT August 15, 2010
Dollar-Yen May Fall to 75

tokyo ginko 22:47 GMT August 15, 2010
i remember all ur post in march april....

tokyo rana 22:49 GMT August 15, 2010
Dollar-Yen May Fall to 75

tokyo ginko 22:47 GMT August 15, 2010
im short right short from 95...u was buying from 95..u was saying to everyonne buy usdjpy it will hit 100 short usd against euro also...happy day,

tokyo ginko 22:47 GMT August 15, 2010
Dollar-Yen May Fall to 75

Are u short usd/jpy?

You speak with such strong conviction here that my only hope you put all your money where your mouth is.


tokyo rana 22:46 GMT August 15, 2010
Dollar-Yen May Fall to 75

HK [email protected] 22:33 GMT August 15, 2010
u just donot know wat kind of nation is japanese....

tokyo rana 22:44 GMT August 15, 2010
Dollar-Yen May Fall to 75

at least japanese big players will short jpy pairs....bcoz they trust respect ichimoku like God..................happy day,

tokyo rana 22:41 GMT August 15, 2010
Dollar-Yen May Fall to 75

HK [email protected] 22:33 GMT August 15, 2010
no no no no no never this prediction get wrong...75/65 is reality everyone have to accept this reality sooner or later...75 is 10000000% is come i said that when usdjpy 93/95 i said usdjpy fall badly...u will see 70 also...u know wat is happen 10000Analyst was saying usdjpy will rise to 101/120 early this year now things changed..u and every one who is bull on usdjpy will see 75 and below just wait....idonot understand how can explain u things are getting worse and worse jpy pairs under heavy ichi cloud big players will jpy pairs they want buy at very low levels....good luck with ur thought....

HK [email protected] 22:33 GMT August 15, 2010
Dollar-Yen May Fall to 75

We have seen this kind of predictions ending exactly to the other side.

tokyo rana 22:28 GMT August 15, 2010

today 1st time in career all positions plus..ihave 5 positions all plus...nice start...happy day,

GVI Forex john 22:00 GMT August 15, 2010

Entry: Target: Stop:

Res 3	1.3008	87.40	1.0622	1.5765	1.0536
Res 2	1.2957	86.89	1.0587	1.5722	1.0487
Res 1	1.2855	86.59	1.0553	1.5657	1.0448
Pivot	1.2804	86.08	1.0518	1.5614	1.0399
Sup 1	1.2702	85.78	1.0484	1.5549	1.0360
Sup 2	1.2651	85.27	1.0449	1.5506	1.0311
Sup 3	1.2549	84.97	1.0415	1.5441	1.0272

Res 3	0.8318	112.47	1.3617	0.9107
Res 2	0.8289	111.79	1.3579	0.9071
Res 1	0.8233	110.91	1.3499	0.9000
Pivot	0.8204	110.23	1.3461	0.8964
Sup 1	0.8148	109.35	1.3381	0.8893
Sup 2	0.8119	108.67	1.3343	0.8857
Sup 3	0.8063	107.79	1.3263	0.8786

GVI Forex john 21:57 GMT August 15, 2010

Entry: Target: Stop:

Syd 21:53 GMT August 15, 2010
Beware of $1 Trillion Under Chinese Mattress:
Things may be far worse in the most populous nation. A widening wealth disparity will lead to trouble down the road for 1.3 billion Chinese and investors betting on stability in an economy that may already be the second-largest. Nothing spooks the Communist Party like social unrest. Its conviction to snuff it out whenever and wherever it occurs was behind the 4 trillion-yuan stimulus package in 2008. Reducing income disparities is a top goal of President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao to stave off riots, strikes and other unrest that might threaten the party’s six-decade rule. LINK

`Mr. Yen' Says Japan Can't Stem Currency's Rise as U.S. Economy Falters Japan’s yen, the best performer among major currencies this year with a 7.9 percent gain against the dollar, may surge further as concern grows that U.S. efforts to boost economic growth may fail.

GVI Forex Blog 21:51 GMT August 15, 2010 Reply   
Risk sentiment nudged lower. European equities posted modest declines (Eurostoxx -0.5%) after the Q2 GDP report showed the peripherals significantly underperformed compared to Germany.

Forex Research - Morning Report (Westpac)

tokyo rana 21:40 GMT August 15, 2010

sooner or later say hello to 75/65...

tokyo rana 21:39 GMT August 15, 2010

Japan’s yen, the best performer among major currencies this year with a 7.9 percent gain against the dollar, may surge further as concern grows that U.S. efforts to boost economic growth may fail.

“What we are seeing is not appreciation of the yen but weakness of the dollar, reflecting concerns that the U.S. economy may falter,” Eisuke Sakakibara, formerly Japan’s top currency official, said yesterday on the Fuji television network. “There is a chance the yen will reach an all-time high and stay at that level for the time being.”

The Japanese government has yet to formulate strategy for stemming a yen surge that threatens the earnings of exporters including Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co. and Canon Inc. A report today probably will show the nation’s economy grew at the slowest pace in three quarters in the period ended June 30, economists surveyed by Bloomberg News forecast.

The yen reached 84.73 to the dollar on Aug. 11, a high since July 1995. Sakakibara -- known as “Mr. Yen” for his efforts to influence exchange rates through verbal and actual currency market intervention while at the Ministry of Finance in 1997-1999 -- said the currency may match its April 1995 peak of 79.75.

‘Feel the Pinch’

“Japanese companies will feel the pinch of a stronger yen and a weakness in share prices around the end of this year,” Sakakibara said. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell to a year-to- date low of 9,065.94 on Aug. 12.

Canon, the world’s second-largest printer maker loses about 6.8 billion yen of annual operating profit for every 1 yen gain in its value against the dollar and 4.1 billion yen of profit for each 1 yen rise versus the euro, the company said in April.

Sakakibara spoke after Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda last week refrained from outlining steps to slow the yen’s rise and the Bank of Japan maintained its policy guidance.

“We will monitor economic conditions carefully and respond appropriately,” Noda said in an unscheduled press conference in Tokyo on Aug. 12. Asked whether action could include currency intervention, he declined to elaborate.

Noda and central bank Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said on Aug. 12 they were closely watching the currency, comments investors said indicate preparedness to curb the yen’s gains to protect the nation’s economic recovery.

Poised to Move?

More than a third of Japan’s margin traders think policy makers will intervene to weaken the yen if it strengthens past the 15-year high reached this week, a survey by Research Institute Ltd. showed.

Lawmakers from Japan’s ruling party last week urged Prime Minister Naoto Kan to consider intervening in the currency market for the first time since 2004. They also called on the Bank of Japan to “engage in large-scale monetary easing.”

Kan and Shirakawa may meet this week to discuss measures to address the yen’s strength, the Asahi newspaper reported on Aug. 13. Kan said he’s “concerned” about the yen’s recent appreciation, Kyodo News reported on Aug. 14.

“Investors know that the Japanese government can’t come up with decisive measures that can stem the appreciation of the yen,” said Morio Okayasu, chief analyst in Tokyo at Japan Co., a unit of the online currency trading firm Gain Capital in Bedminster, New Jersey.

Japan hasn’t intervened in the currency market since March 2004, when the yen was around 109 per dollar. The Bank of Japan sold 14.8 trillion yen ($172 billion) in the first three months of 2004, after record sales of 20.4 trillion yen in 2003. The currency ended 2004 at 102.63 to the dollar.

To contact the reporter on this story: Yasuhiko Seki in Tokyo at [email protected]

Syd 21:38 GMT August 15, 2010
Dollar-Yen May Fall to 75
Eisuke Sakakibara, formerly Japan’s top currency official, said the yen may rise to a record 79.75 against the U.S. dollar due to concerns over the health of the U.S. economy. LINK

Dollar-Yen May Fall to 75
Beat Wittmann, CEO and partner of Dynapartners, says the fundamental backdrop for the yen is "catastrophic". He tells CNBC's Karen Tso that the U.S. dollar-yen cross could fall to 75.

HK [email protected] 21:32 GMT August 15, 2010
Russian fuel to help start Iran nuclear site

By Najmeh Bozorgmehr in Tehran

Published: August 15 2010 19:25 - Last updated: August 15 2010 19:25

Iran’s first nuclear power plant will start generating electricity by the end of this year, after more than three decades of delays in construction, according to a state nuclear official.

Russia announced on Friday that it would deliver 82 tonnes of nuclear fuel to Iran’s Bushehr plant reactor on August 21, ending the test phase of the installation and officially making it a nuclear power site. Iranian officials hope the plant will formally open a few weeks later.

The managing director of state-owned Iran Nuclear Power Plants Production and Development Company, Mohammad Ahmadian, said on Sunday that the plant – with a capacity of 1,000MW – would start generating power by the winter.

He added that the nuclear fuel delivery did not mean that Bushehr plant would be fully operational yet.

Mr Ahmadian said that while Russia was ready to provide Bushehr with fuel for 10 years, Iran might not be able to depend on that because delays in construction proved “western countries cannot be trusted”.

Donya-e-Eqtesad, a conservative daily newspaper, on Sunday wrote that Bushehr was “only a small part of” Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

HK [email protected] 21:26 GMT August 15, 2010
Oil price has to be watched today
In order to get some idea about any rising tensions in the M.E.

Syd 20:41 GMT August 15, 2010
Charting the Markets
Charting the Markets

Ireland can withstand the euro's ordeal by fire, but can Southern Europe?LINK

'Hindenburg Omen' foreshadows imminent FTSE crisis, warns BGC's David BuikLINK
German Growth Not Sustainable
Germany's strong second-quarter GDP data is not sustainable, Terry Alexander from Business Monitor International- Bill O'Neill, CIO of Merrill Lynch Wealth Management

tokyo rana 20:02 GMT August 15, 2010

Lahore FM 19:49 GMT August 15, 2010
oh yes many thanx for kind post,

tokyo rana 19:55 GMT August 15, 2010

Lahore FM 19:49 GMT August 15, 2010
dear brother,good morning to all,same thought here...yes eurusd can rise...usdjpy buy on dip but entry 85.50/85 target maximum 86/87 stops 84.50 idonot see more rise...wat do you think?but iwill buy nzdjpy eurjpy or gbpjpy rather than usdjpy...wat do you think?happy day,

Lahore FM 19:49 GMT August 15, 2010

Rana,i am starting to look to buy usdjpy on dips.

Cubriclas did not mean any offense even if you are abnormal..just kidding.

eurusd is on the skids but still expect that a sharp rise can squeeze eurusd shorts.

tokyo rana 19:37 GMT August 15, 2010

Porto Cubriclas 19:35 GMT August 15, 2010
dear friend,yes this is normal abnormal...happy day,

Porto Cubriclas 19:35 GMT August 15, 2010

Rana normally we ask first to know opinions then we take the decision to buy or not...
gt & gl

tokyo rana 19:34 GMT August 15, 2010

Entry: 86.255 Target: open Stop: 100pips

also hold short from friday usdjpy 86.255 gbpjpy 134.575 eurjpy 110.775...happy trade,

tokyo rana 19:31 GMT August 15, 2010

Porto Cubriclas 19:29 GMT August 15, 2010
dear friend,nice question hahaha...i bought thats why i ask..if idonot buy donot ask..happy weekend,

Porto Cubriclas 19:29 GMT August 15, 2010

Rana, why you buy first then ask?
gt & gl

tokyo rana 19:18 GMT August 15, 2010
Entry: 1.27575 Target: 1.30/1.33 Stop: 100/150pips

Dear Jay and FM,what is your view on this pair?happy weekend,

GVI Forex Blog 14:53 GMT August 15, 2010 Reply   
Here are some key forex support and resistance levels for the upcoming trading week.

Key Forex Technical Trading Levels

bern ds 14:10 GMT August 15, 2010
will give an update tomorrow. am on the highway

Vienna GD 13:40 GMT August 15, 2010
vienna gd

DS - if I may ask once more - what are these indicators, besides that everybody, and even GS since last week, is convinced of a gold rally?
Or are these indicators already enough for you?

In my book only either a sharp deflationary move (bringing down all assets and markets - which you oppose because you are not in the camp of the stock market bears) - OR sharply higher rates.
The latter one before November in my book is highly unlikely.
And also the same afterward, because if the Dems loose stock market will continue to rally due the the QE2 and hope that things will change to the good with the Reps again in power.
Hence a peak of indices in April 2011 makes a lot of sense for me.

I have your expected gold sell off too - but NOT before the 5th in early 2012 is done - where I will even sell my physical. Just to buy it back later.

Also stocks rallying as you expect and gold selling off that sharply - doesn't make sense for me.

Please help me to understand, what your reasoning is behind this expectation of 750$.

Thanks in advance!
And good to have you back Geneva DS!

bern ds 13:13 GMT August 15, 2010
vienna gd
tks for your post. after all i am not so bearish for gold, see usd 10000 in 5 years, but i am too long in this business to know
that any such trend will be corrected once or twice, but it will be corrected such as all this great late comer bulls will be wiped out and you can beieve me, we have now several clear indicators for something huge! will be fantastic but i will remain flexible! gt

Hong Kong Qindex 12:25 GMT August 15, 2010
S&P 500 : Critical Point 1062.1
Entry: Target: Stop:

S&P 500 (1076.1) : Critical Point 1062.1

The current expected trading range is 1004.2 - 1108.5. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the barrier at 1062.1 // 1065.2.

S&P 500 : Monthly Cycle Charts

GVI Forex Jay 11:22 GMT August 15, 2010
Weekly Setup Videos
See what may lie ahead in the coming week:

Weekly EURUSD and GBPUSD setup videos are reading for viewing.


tokyo rana 11:17 GMT August 15, 2010

Vienna GD 09:01 GMT August 15, 2010
dear friend,thanx for kind broker donot have me eurusd long looks ok maybe just retrace and we see another high short usd not bad idea...1.27/1.26 nice area for short usd against euro and jpy...long jpy against euro and gbp...its risky though right now...yes i can be wrong as guru saying short usd against euro and jpy and buy jpy against guru name is nicole elliet....happy weekend,

NYT 11:04 GMT August 15, 2010

Double Dip? A Tipping Point May Be Near

Vienna GD 09:03 GMT August 15, 2010

That link didn't work .. so here once more: Link

Vienna GD 09:01 GMT August 15, 2010

Rana, BERN DS ... thanks for all your contributions!

Here you have my road map (to Armageddon) as I see it coming as of now ... Link


Forget about Gold 750. If you get 1140 be happy. 104x is the worst case imho. Silver though is another story. Might go lower together with stocks. Eventually. So that JPM can get out before they are toast.
These low values only if we have a very very nasty sell off in indices. Which I expect btw. But still I expect Gold to do pretty well in comparison. Accordingly 1040-1140 my worst case expectation.

As for EURUSD: for me it's still an open bet whether over the long run usd or euro will be weaker. In the end both continents doomed for disaster. Hence over the long run the best bet will be long gold, short eurusd and buck against Asian currencies and AUDUSD and USDCAD if your stomach is strong enough.
With 2014-2016 major lows ahead, 2026 another peak and towards 2035 Armageddon.

Nevertheless - what is your reasoning behind being SOOOOO bearish on Gold?

Anyway - looking forward to your posts and opinions. Very interesting. BTW great call on GBPUSD shorts recently!

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HK [email protected] 00:51 GMT August 15, 2010
Iran’s first atomic power plant ready for activation
Iran is set to acquire its first civilian nuclear power plant following Russia’s announcement on Friday that atomic fuel will be loaded in the facility from August 21.

Sergei Novikov, the spokesman for the Russian atomic energy corporation, Rosatom, said that loading of fuel would be a key step for starting the reactor.

The entire process of feeding fuel rods in the reactor is expected to be completed in 2-3 weeks.

“This will be an irreversible step,” Mr. Novikov was quoted as saying. “At that moment, the Bushehr nuclear power plant will be certified as a nuclear energy installation,” he added. “That means the period of testing is over and the period of the physical start-up has begun, but this period takes about two and a half months.” The first fissile reaction is expected in October.

Iran’s atomic energy agency head, Ali Akbar Salehi, said that a formal inauguration of the facility would be held in late September or early October when the fuel is moved “to the heart of the reactor”. Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency quoted Mr. Salehi as saying that the reactor would be linked to the Iran’s electricity grid when it is powered to a 50 per cent level.

Analysts see Russia’s willingness to go ahead with Bushehr as a sign of Moscow’s assertion against isolating Iran through sanctions which do not have the approval of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).

However, the reactor does not pose proliferation risks as its activities would be fully monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Besides all the spent fuel generated by the plant would be shipped to Russia. Russia’s Interfax reported that fuel for the first reactor in Bushehr was delivered in January 2008.

First one may position himself into gold and CHF in case the israelis will decide to attack the plant before loading it

However I think no attack will come up to the full activation of the plant.

The problem is not the nuclear plant, but the malicious clandestine activities going below it.

First the plant has to be fully loaded, in order to get the Uranium rods out of reach of the Iranians hands in case the empty plant will be bombed first.

Once the plant will be loaded, heavy bombardments of the plant SURROUNDINGS can cause extensive damage to the cellars below and incapacitate the plant without causing nuclear leakages and without killing our Russian friends.

The Uranium rods will get stuck inside and all the nuclear program will come to a halt. There are also other sites which needs some bombardments, but it is other part of the whole picture.


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