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Forex Forum Archive for 08/22/2010

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brisbane rr 23:57 GMT August 22, 2010
elections
Reply   
Syd 23:53 GMT August 22, 2010
well SAID Syd!

Syd 23:53 GMT August 22, 2010
governments
Reply   
Mtl JP 23:46 GMT the whole thing is quite depressing , all talk and nothing comes of it till its too late, the subject is too deep to get into , rather just concentrate on trading the yoyo markets here and now.

Mtl JP 23:46 GMT August 22, 2010
HOURS AWAY FROM NUCLEAR

Syd 22:23 GMT August 21 - Bolton' s lying and vindictive personality traits credentials are well known.

Trading off this arse's windblow has been profitable for you ?

HK 23:35 GMT August 22, 2010
Aussie Election Will Hurt AUD, Bonds - BarCap

Enough with this mudslinging about the uncertainty of Australian economy.

Australia is a healthy and stable democracy where the difference between the two major parties is not too big.

Investors will continue to flock to safe Australia, and that "uncertainty" will matter nothing, same like those tourists flocking to Thailand and are not being deterred by the widespread aids there.
GL/GT

Syd 23:13 GMT August 22, 2010
Aussie Election Will Hurt AUD, Bonds - BarCap
Reply   
Australia's hung parliament will hurt AUD and bonds in near-term, though in medium-term impact should be neutral, say Barclays Capital strategists. "The core fundamentals for these markets of stable government, sound fiscal policy and Australia being a premium location for foreign investment will remain intact following the formation of a minority government." Says near-term uncertainty, stability of government and fiscal policy will be key concerns. Says a Liberal-National coalition would likely result in greater fiscal slippage.
Aussie Economy Will Suffer From Politics - ANZ
Australia's economic activity and inflation will drop in near term on back of uncertain outlook for government, say ANZ strategists. "Uncertainty is not good for investment and growth. On this basis, expectations for economic activity and inflation are likely to drop along with expectations for short-term interest rates." Notes minority governments around the world are not always associated with fiscal discipline or long-term economic reform. "This may weigh on bond markets. At the very least the yield curve is likely to steepen."

Syd 22:40 GMT August 22, 2010
Euro crisis has not gone away, it is merely masked by other troubles
Reply   
A marked slowdown will bring to the fore all the problems which caused such anxiety earlier in the year. It is the weakest members who have most to fear. As the eurozone economy softens, worries about the future of the euro will soon resurface. LINK

Second election possible in weeks
AUSTRALIANS could return to the polls in weeks if Julia Gillard or Tony Abbott can't strike a deal.
Last night, one of the key NSW independents now in negotiations with both leaders warned of a possible deadlock that could force the country to another election.
"It's a distinct possibility," Rob Oakeshott said. "But I hope we can avoid that." It emerged last night that the independents may be split on which party they would support.
Queensland independent Bob Katter has not indicated which side he would back.

GVI Forex Blog 22:16 GMT August 22, 2010 Reply   
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: AUD will be volatile today, given the hung Parliament.

Forex Research - Morning Report (Westpac)

Syd 22:00 GMT August 22, 2010
AUD
Reply   
brisbane rr 21:56 true

brisbane rr 21:56 GMT August 22, 2010
Australian election
Reply   
If the Greens have their way business taxes will go up households will pay higher prices for utitilities as their climate policies take hold .....result lower domstic growth as consumers are further stretched on their already tight budgets. The interest rate support for the AUD will be gone ....so as SYD's article by Terry McCrann points out the real worry is the Green's control of the senate .Therefore if the Liberals can form a government it will be a short term positive against a negative backdrop of a Senate with the Greens holding the balance of power...imho

Syd 21:32 GMT August 22, 2010
AUD
Reply   
London Shaun hi with Australia revenue dependant on commodities the Greens will be a negative element here for our currency , I am watching the equities for the next two months and turned most into cash myself on the front on the last rally - Gillards face said it all over the weekend and I dont feel she is as confident as she would like us to believe . Even after all this is over and a Liberal win :-)) - the markets will then turn back to the Global situation in my view, so feel its a play between 86-90 for now cheers

London Shaun 21:23 GMT August 22, 2010
SYD

And I echo the sentiments for Syd too. Syd. Your comment regarding perpetual political paralysis (3P) leads me to wonder (short AUD though I am) that perhaps this will be good for AUD. No political involvement in the markets!!! Marvellous. Look at the mess they make when they do get involved. And not just the markets. The rate of statutes being passed (we in the UK are now officially living in a nanny state) across the democracies are stultifying our lives as well our markets. That all said, I'll stay short awhile. Thanks again Syd.

Wall Street 21:07 GMT August 22, 2010
SYD
Reply   
Allow me join in the thanks to SYD, especially this weekend!

Syd 21:01 GMT August 22, 2010
AUD
Reply   
brisbane rr 20:48 GMT many thanks
Gordon Gekko: The most valuable commodity I know of is information.

Syd 20:57 GMT August 22, 2010
No good can come from this Terry McCrann
Reply   
CHAOS and bad government. That is now Australia's future.
It's not the dead-heat in the Lower House that's the problem. That would resolve itself sooner or later, as it did, for example, at the state level when the Bracks Government won decisively in 2002 after governing in its first term with the support of a similar group of country independents.It's the Senate that's the problem, where the balance of power is now finally held, and will be held permanently, by the party of pure irrationalists.The Greens don't want to and won't "review" a government's policy;Our problem today is that there's no way a future Labor government would embrace further reform. While in opposition it would join with the Greens in the Senate to stop a future Coalition government doing it either.
So we will have no reform and indeed even just basic policy paralysis, precisely when we need it either to deal with the next level of prosperity bestowed by China. Or, the disaster scenario, it all comes to a shuddering stop.
LINK

Preparing for the Next 'Black Swan'
Investors Are Flocking to New Strategies Designed to Profit From a Market Calamity. But Will They Fly?LINK

Euro's Summer Reprieve May End Soon
"Less positive feelings towards the euro" are surfacing, "with governments in southern Europe coming back from vacation and having to try to increase employment," .Euro's Summer Reprieve May End Soon

brisbane rr 20:48 GMT August 22, 2010
Syd 20:27 GMT August 22, 2010
Reply   
Syd 20:27 GMT August 22, 2010
Just a note Syd to thankyou for all your notes. I always make an effort to read them even if I'm running late .....your contribution to this forum is A+++++

GVI Forex john 20:39 GMT August 22, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

Don't trust those ranges!

GVI Forex john 20:37 GMT August 22, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

AUD=	0.8870	-52 	0.8940	0.8843
CAD=	1.0492	6 	1.0506	1.0479
NZD=	0.7044	-25 	0.7066	0.7037
AUDNZD=	1.2580	-32 	1.2646	1.2560

GVI Forex john 20:37 GMT August 22, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support

LATEST PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:

Pivots	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CHF	GBP/USD	USD/CAD
Res 3	1.2973	86.60	1.0506	1.5730	1.0668
Res 2	1.2903	86.23	1.0450	1.5663	1.0591
Res 1	1.2805	85.95	1.0401	1.5597	1.0538
					
Pivot	1.2735	85.58	1.0345	1.5530	1.0461
					
Sup 1	1.2637	85.30	1.0296	1.5464	1.0408
Sup 2	1.2567	84.93	1.0240	1.5397	1.0331
Sup 3	1.2469	84.65	1.0191	1.5331	1.0278

Pivots	EUR/GBP	EUR/JPY	EUR/CHF	AUD/USD
Res 3	0.8306	110.91	1.3316	0.9045
Res 2	0.8277	110.25	1.3278	0.8989
Res 1	0.8230	109.57	1.3217	0.8956

Pivot	0.8201	108.91	1.3179	0.8900
	
Sup 1	0.8154	108.23	1.3118	0.8867
Sup 2	0.8125	107.57	1.3080	0.8811
Sup 3	0.8078	106.89	1.3019	0.8778

GVI Forex john 20:33 GMT August 22, 2010
GVI Forex Trading Support



Syd 20:27 GMT August 22, 2010
Aud
Reply   
China's Looming Real-Estate Bubble
A massive Keynesian spending program has misallocated capital and set the stage for a crisis
US Dollar on the Verge of Rally as Sentiment Threatens Collapse US Dollar
Takes Tumble After Election, More To Come -Westpac
AUD/USD takes tumble on election result, likely to fall further; "It depends on how things unfold. If it's going to be messy it probably will," says Westpac FX Strategist Imre Speizer. Pair last 0.8858 versus last trade Friday of 0.8940. Notes while "early birds" pulled it down early in NZ, "there is still Asia, Europe to come in." Tips initial support at 0.8850 followed by 0.8740. Says AUD/JPY will follow similar path; "If the US dollar is a safe haven currency, the Yen is even more of a safe haven." Pair last 75.76 vs 76.52 late Friday

Syd 19:59 GMT August 22, 2010
AUD
Reply   
Corporates fear policy mayhem after election result
BUSINESS believes the prospect of a hung parliament and the Greens holding the balance of power in the Senate could damage the prospects for vital economic reform and cause ongoing uncertainty for local and international investors.The significant vote for the Greens is concerning because, while they stand for the environment, their other policies are a concern," Fairfax Media chairman and RBA board member Roger Corbett said.Among the areas of Greens policy that could affect business are the call to lift the company tax rate to 33 per cent, a preference for income taxes over a GST, and Greens leader Bob Brown's push to revive Labor's original plan for a 40 per cent resource super-profits tax.Equity and currency markets are also expected to be affected by the uncertain election result.One of Australia's most experienced investment bankers, Rothschild Australia chairman and United Group chairman Trevor Rowe, warned that the markets would suffer while there was uncertainty."Financial markets do not like uncertainty," he said.
LINK

Syd 19:34 GMT August 22, 2010
Aud
Reply   
Hi, would think if anything to hit aud this is it , looking for initially 87.20 area . see equities negative into September so Aud will get a double whamming - The Greens win is the killer Comments Posted over on GV1 .. Brisbane Flip 03:26 GMT election believing after a little pr.ck it would be all over by monday. Well it will be going on for years now as the country will effectively be a state of perpetual election campaign footing. The independents want something for their support but the problem is they all want something different. The idea that the eccentric Bob Katter (yes he was the guy who says ozzie should be at 50c to help out farmers and mining industry) could have the balance of power is incredible. FWIW .8840ish is the 50 and 100day MAs. I'd guess breaking them we drop to 86c pretty quickly.

happy week everyone, could be a good one !!

Miami ZEUS 17:49 GMT August 22, 2010
Market conditions



Departing thought from Key West.

Happy Day!

GVI Forex Blog 16:16 GMT August 22, 2010 Reply   
Here are some key forex support and resistance levels for the upcoming trading week.

Key Forex Technical Trading Levels

singapore td 15:01 GMT August 22, 2010
only usd

where would you consider a good stop level?

EU THE EURO QUEEN 14:44 GMT August 22, 2010
only usd

I was also for the rest a crazy when I sold the USD in the year 02..BUT we musnt forget our stops take care

singapore td 14:38 GMT August 22, 2010
only usd

thanks euroqueen, glad to be in the same boat with you although some say we are crazy with that euro's prediction, cheers and best of luck

London AT 14:30 GMT August 22, 2010
Abbott, Gillard Vie for Power in Australia as Neither Leader Wins Majority

By the time most of us get access to our platforms the aussie/nz traders will have had a field day running stops.

EU THE EURO QUEEN 14:26 GMT August 22, 2010
only usd
Reply   
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

singapore td
some where 1,08-1,10 as a first finel step for the first round within the next spring Hopfully

happy trade

Richland QC Mailman 14:22 GMT August 22, 2010
Abbott, Gillard Vie for Power in Australia as Neither Leader Wins Majority

Thanks Shaun for some historical reference from the Eurozone. At least we can draw comparison from it.

On which ccy to benefit from the sell-off, just in case it happens Monday, it will be theoretical but we can see the YEN as the nearest benefactor. While there is growing clamor for taking long position above 85, we cannot discount the possibility of further yen strength towards 82.50/83 on account of risk aversion and its safe-haven appeal.

singapore td 14:14 GMT August 22, 2010
eur and gbp
Reply   
thanks to AL for the interesting weekend videos
i particularly like the idea of euro targetting possibly 1.17 and gbp 1.51 based on the idea that eurgbp heading to 0.77

if AL says that, then I am pretty sure we will see those levels next, cheers! keep buying usd!

singapore td 14:05 GMT August 22, 2010
Abbott, Gillard Vie for Power in Australia as Neither Leader Wins Majority

Mailman, which currency do you think will benefit from aud sell-off?
I am bearish enough on aud even without the election result, but this result is a sure-fire sell signal for aud. How fast it would be remains the question.

London Shaun 14:03 GMT August 22, 2010
Abbott, Gillard Vie for Power in Australia as Neither Leader Wins Majority

Never traded Aud except for a small sell late Friday @ 8900. But if we need a recent example of what happens to a ccy under electoral uncertainty we need look no further than home (London). I think it fell around 5 big figs awaiting the forming of a coalition. So 0.8640 (or wherever the S is down there) looks very possible.

Richland QC Mailman 13:12 GMT August 22, 2010
Abbott, Gillard Vie for Power in Australia as Neither Leader Wins Majority

MarketWatch - Australia's voters declined to choose a majority in parliament for the first time in 70 years, meaning that either Prime Minister Julia Gillard or opposition leader Tony Abbott must reach accord with the independent parties to form a government.

The lack of a clear winner also threatens to unsettle markets Monday as investors wait to learn whether a proposed new tax on mining-company profits will become law. Australia's currency also could come under renewed selling pressure, analysts said.

Negotiations will begin Monday and a government might not be formed for several days, the paper reported.

Lahore FM 13:08 GMT August 22, 2010
Abbott, Gillard Vie for Power in Australia as Neither Leader Wins Majority

Syd,thanx for the view and overview.

good trades!

Richland QC Mailman 13:05 GMT August 22, 2010
Abbott, Gillard Vie for Power in Australia as Neither Leader Wins Majority

HI FM. Political deadlock and more uncertainties into the future in Australia may be more Aussie-NEGATIVE as investors would want to shift to other currencies or markets until clearer and stable government leadership is established IMHO.

Richland QC Mailman 12:56 GMT August 22, 2010
Australia Election

Mailman Trading Envelope (MTE) for Aussie for the coming week.

Hi Syd. Aus post-election results as you have reported, coupled with Double Dip talk in some forex quarters, and bearish technical outlook of the aussie are all pointing to SHORTING the pair from 8950 up to 9000 should the price retreats there after bouncing off 8840.

We will monitor the pair closely on Monday morning.

Lahore FM 12:54 GMT August 22, 2010
Abbott, Gillard Vie for Power in Australia as Neither Leader Wins Majority

Syd,is it aud bearish or bullish so far,just from the looks of it?

global-view careers 12:47 GMT August 22, 2010
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Sydney 11:12 GMT August 22, 2010
Australia Election
Reply   

Australia's Election Deadlock May Deepen Currency, Stock Market `Jitters'

Australia’s dollar may fall and equities investors may look to other markets after the nation’s federal election failed to deliver a majority government for the first time in 70 years, according to market analysts.

GVI Forex Jay 10:06 GMT August 22, 2010
Tech Talk
Reply   


As posted on GVI Forex

GVI Forex Jay 22:26 GMT August 21, 2010
Tech Talk: Reply

AUD supports (Friday low was .8843):

.8841= 100 day mva
.8827 = 50 day mva
.8800 = pivotal big fig
.8739 = July 22 low
.8690 = key daily trendline (see daily chart0
.8635 = July 20 low

Syd 03:00 GMT August 22, 2010
New Zealand Dollar Holds above .7000, but Break May be Imminent
Reply   
CFTC Commitment of Traders data shows that net Non-Commercial New Zealand Dollar longs remain near their highest levels since the pair topped in May. Last week’s sharp declines served as clear warning that many NZDUSD bulls have begun heading for the exitslink

Investors withdrew a staggering $33.12 billion from domestic stock market mutual funds in the first seven months of this year, according to the Investment Company Institute, the mutual fund industry trade group. Now many are choosing investments they deem safer, like bonds. In Striking Shift, Small Investors Flee Stock Market


Dollar, stocks may reel after election deadlock
Dollar, stocks may reel after election deadlock

The deficit we really should worry about
Whoever wins, the economy will lose.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
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A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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