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Forex Forum Archive for 01/02/2011

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Israel dil 23:46 GMT January 2, 2011
Iran's Revolutionary Guards have shot

Syd 23:34 GMT January 2, 2011

FARS news agency reporting about interrogation results from two pilots out of unmanned airplane. and the air force "lost" two unmanned airplanes never confirmed. so, we are again into Iranian sources mentioning frogmen with parachutes :-)

Syd 23:34 GMT January 2, 2011
Iran's Revolutionary Guards have shot
TEHRAN (AFP)--Iran's Revolutionary Guards have shot down two "Western spy" drones in the Gulf, the Fars news agency quoted a top commander of the elite military force as saying Sunday.

Lahore FM 22:51 GMT January 2, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: Target: Stop:

i am long at today's open 0.8568/71

Syd 22:45 GMT January 2, 2011
States flag new mining tax row
A NEW battle over the mineral resources rent tax is looming as Western Australia and Queensland push for the regional infrastructure fund promised as a sweetener to be excluded from the system for carving up more than $50 billion in GST receipts.
West Australian bureaucrats fear the state will be short-changed and have insisted the fund be quarantined from the Commonwealth Grants Commission process that siphons GST and other revenue from the rich states to the poorer ones.

Lahore FM 22:43 GMT January 2, 2011
Trade Ideas

Mark its my tp for last portion of last week's longs.

for long i have taken up today i have tp above 1.3480.

Syd 22:27 GMT January 2, 2011
China likely to raise rates again to tame inflation dragon
SHANGHAI: Inflation in China could rise to between 7 per cent and 8 per cent in the next two months, panicking Beijing's policymakers into dramatically raising interest rates, economists have warned.
The prospect of at least four more interest rate rises in the world's second-largest economy is likely to alarm global markets, which tumbled in shock at China's decision to raise rates on Christmas Day.In food markets in Shanghai the price of meat and vegetables has risen by at least 50 per cent in the past year, angering poorer shoppers who spend up to half their income on food.
Inflation is a deeply emotional and political issue in China, and the Communist Party is keenly aware that periods of high inflation have caused turmoil in the past. Inflation is widely blamed for having helped fuel the popular unrest that led to the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989.
''In the early 1990s we saw inflation hit 24 or 25 per cent, '' said Goldman Sachs's chief China economist, Yu Song. ''If we got that kind of inflation again I think it is pretty clear that some senior officials would be forced to resign.''
China likely to raise rates again to tame inflation dragon

Mining tax buries the Henry review
The mining tax was meant to help Australia cut its corporate tax rate to a more internationally competitive 25 per cent. Instead, it will be reduced by one percentage point, to 29 per cent. The success of the tax, and all the measures it is to fund, including successive superannuation increases through the next decade, will depend on a sustained commodity boom driven by the likes of China and India.But nothing is guaranteed. China's manufacturing growth slowed for the first time in five months last month as a result of its tightened monetary policy. While the Western world tucked into its turkey, China announced late on Christmas Day it had raised its interest rates for the second time in less than two months, seeking to choke off its highest rates of inflation in more than two years.Much has been made of the fact that the government has taken up only a handful of Henry's 138 recommendations, but that is irrelevant. The review was always intended to be a long-term guide to taxation policy.
But with the mining tax set to dominate political agendas for some time, you wonder if some of the other 137 will be revisited. SMH

China Government Researcher: Should Raise Interest Rates In 2011
China should also further increase the flexibility of the yuan exchange rate as there is an "inverse relationship" between the level of yuan and inflation in China, Zhang Chenghui, vice head of the State Council's Development Research Center Finance Research Institute, said in an interview with the central bank-backed paper.

prague mark 22:27 GMT January 2, 2011
Trade Ideas

FM, EUR/USD need to regain 120pips from here till close - do you see it as TP with >50% prob? TIA

Lahore FM 22:14 GMT January 2, 2011
Trade Ideas

eurusd bulls might try to pre empt all counter moves if first trading session of 2011 sees a close above 1.3480.

GVI Forex john 22:06 GMT January 2, 2011

mark- not sure' probably some 24 hour desks.

prague mark 21:56 GMT January 2, 2011

john, right - CN off - then who is MM as of now?

GVI Forex john 21:50 GMT January 2, 2011

mark- look at the top of the page. I believe Sydney is closed.

Cambridge Joe 21:43 GMT January 2, 2011

Hey Mark.

Sorry I don't have an answer for you....
I'm in the dark also...

Lahore FM 21:00 GMT January 2, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: Target: Stop:

will be loading back eurgbp longs when get first ticks on my platforms.

targets 87 and 90 and higher.

prague mark 20:50 GMT January 2, 2011

which market now operates? SYDNEY only? And we have to wait for Frankfurt as long as London will be on holliday?>

Cambridge Joe 20:18 GMT January 2, 2011
Greetings to all !

Is it me.... or is that an example of low level advertising 'latest post Open Forum' ?

Good trades to all !

jerusalem kb 20:13 GMT January 2, 2011
usdchf charts

Entry: Target: Stop:

as per h4 chart price formed a buy signal above 423.6 so i will wait if the price goes up and formed a new supports where i can plot trend line and trade its breakout if (macd , rsi confirm this).

jerusalem kb 20:09 GMT January 2, 2011
usdchf charts

Entry: Target: Stop:

daily targeting 0.9238

jerusalem kb 20:07 GMT January 2, 2011
usdchf charts

weekly same

GVI Forex john 20:07 GMT January 2, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Entry: Target: Stop:

Res 3	1.3425	82.37	0.9539	1.5676	1.0069	1.0273	0.7792
Res 2	1.3370	82.11	0.9501	1.5606	1.0045	1.0235	0.7758
Res 1	1.3324	81.82	0.9429	1.5509	1.0020	1.0196	0.7732

Pivot	1.3269	81.56	0.9391	1.5439	0.9996	1.0158	0.7698

Sup 1	1.3223	81.27	0.9319	1.5342	0.9971	1.0119	0.7672
Sup 2	1.3168	81.01	0.9281	1.5272	0.9947	1.0081	0.7638
Sup 3	1.3122	80.72	0.9209	1.5175	0.9922	1.0042	0.7612

jerusalem kb 20:06 GMT January 2, 2011
usdchf charts

Entry: Target: Stop:

as per monthly chart we have rsi and macd and trend line breakout

GVI Forex john 20:04 GMT January 2, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Entry: Target: Stop:

Last	1.3279	81.53	0.9358	1.5413	0.9994	1.0157	0.7705
High	1.3314	81.85	0.9462	1.5535	1.0022	1.0197	0.7725
Low	1.3213	81.30	0.9352	1.5368	0.9973	1.0120	0.7665
Change	0.0000	0.00	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000	0.0000

5 day	1.3212	81.98	0.9459	1.5425	1.0011	1.0124	0.7628
10 day	1.3159	82.68	0.9526	1.5435	1.0070	1.0060	0.7536
20 day	1.3215	83.19	0.9637	1.5576	1.0076	0.9969	0.7508
50 day	1.3471	82.73	0.9768	1.5776	1.0112	0.9906	0.7603
100 day	1.3369	83.27	0.9871	1.5715	1.0216	0.9657	0.7452
200 day	1.3088	86.88	1.0379	1.5400	1.0266	0.9254	0.7254

BIAS	Down	Down	Down	Down	Down	Up	Up

jerusalem kb 20:01 GMT January 2, 2011
usdcad charts

Entry: Target: Stop:

heading to 0.9738 as long as 1.0075 holds (selling around 1.0025 if formed a sell signal there with stop 1.0095 will be good)

tokyo rana 20:01 GMT January 2, 2011
Trade Ideas

Lahore FM 19:07 dear brother,i just present my view thats all....u no need follow me after all haha im baby.....happy trade,

Hamburg cc 19:57 GMT January 2, 2011
"Certain" € break up in 2011
IMHO € is not for disposition at all as there is a strong political will to continue with the €. Now, europe should unite politically and economically, and "Euro-bonds" must be renamed for face saving.

jerusalem kb 19:55 GMT January 2, 2011
usdcad charts

Entry: Target: Stop:

monthly chart , retest of 423.6 now at 0.9266 is highly possible (talking about looong term)

jerusalem kb 19:46 GMT January 2, 2011
eurusd charts

thanks mark

prague mark 19:41 GMT January 2, 2011
eurusd charts

kb, great analysis. Thanks

jerusalem kb 19:29 GMT January 2, 2011
eurusd charts

we have a ress. breakout (already took 90pips+) confirmed by rsi breakout and macd is going up nicely.
Break of 1.3425 may target 1.3627/1.3705 but sl is below 1.3270

jerusalem kb 19:23 GMT January 2, 2011
eurusd charts

Entry: Target: Stop:

although we have a buy signal above support trend line but the price react to the middle B/B strongly and closes below it , some side way is expected 1.3170/1.3627 with upside biases (if it take out 1.3426)

jerusalem kb 19:18 GMT January 2, 2011
eurusd charts

Entry: Target: Stop:

moving inside this flag is highly possible with neutral biases unless a breakout happens .
also break of the small trend ress. may push the price higher

Lahore FM 19:07 GMT January 2, 2011
Trade Ideas

Rana thanx,its a simplistic view that you presented for eurusd has more dimensions to it than just fundamental.

in any case if nothing worked i will follow you and try to make some pips.

tokyo rana 19:04 GMT January 2, 2011
Trade Ideas

Lahore FM 18:58 dear brother,but we need some solid reason with out reason eurusd wud not go to 1.60 this is for sure.....after all markeet is moving for some wat will be happen in happen europe this month....if we look all the data numbers from europe and situation in europe it does not tell stronger euro it just telling euro more and more weakenness.......remember i kept saying eurjpy wud not close above 112............just 2 cent....happy trade,

Lahore FM 18:58 GMT January 2, 2011
Trade Ideas

Rana bro,no real reason..why was it there the last time?

also i follow charts and my intuition on the charts.

also i don;t care if it goes to 1.60 or 0.60.i will try to make some money wherever it may go.i have no love or affiliation with euro as such.

tokyo rana 18:55 GMT January 2, 2011
Trade Ideas

charts is just charts fundamentaly euro still very very very way donot just trade on charts...happy day,

tokyo rana 18:53 GMT January 2, 2011
Trade Ideas

Lahore FM 18:50 dear brother,good morning to u and the way wat is reason for eurusd to go to 1.6?cud u explain if u donot mind....thanx in advance.....happy day,

Lahore FM 18:53 GMT January 2, 2011
Trade Ideas

on daily chart 1.3220 to hold all initial attempts to downside if any happen at all

Lahore FM 18:50 GMT January 2, 2011
Trade Ideas

Mark preferably a rise from gap down open towards 1.3480.

i must also add that there are undercurrents of a major usd selloff on weeklies.eurusd is on crossroads.

we can actually go to 1.60 or higher this year.only condition that we hold above 1.3100 and we then rise above 1.35 this first friday on 7th Jan.

tokyo rana 18:49 GMT January 2, 2011
Paying the Bills without money

kl fs 17:31 dear friend,do u have any solid reason for short usd$?or just ur feeling?ithink buy usd bcoz of fundamental....happy day,

prague mark 18:46 GMT January 2, 2011
Trade Ideas

FM, it looks like eur/usd will gap down at ~1.3350. Do you think we will see 1.34 test one more time on Monday or will it take some time to sonsolidate at 1.33 and below? TIA

Lahore FM 18:40 GMT January 2, 2011
Trade Ideas

Revdax my pleasure.hopefully some repeat performance in coming days too!

kl fs 17:31 GMT January 2, 2011
Paying the Bills without money

by creating wars in all regions ;)
2011 is big time sell-usd year

PAR 15:52 GMT January 2, 2011
Paying the Bills without money
Happy New Year

After spending over $1 trillion on Christmas presents for Republicans and Democrats in order to buy himself some friends, Obama is facing the big problem in 2011 of how to pay for all that reckless spending. His credit card limit has already been extended for several times ( a debt ceiling which is not really a ceiling) , cash has been printed so fast that errors occured in printing 100 $ bills, his Chinese friends prefer to buy copper instead of Us treasuries.

Imho the big question of 2011 is how the USA will continue to pay its bills.

Syd 08:14 GMT January 2, 2011
Edward Bonham Carter: Bonds look to have the potential for wealth destruction
Edward Bonham Carter: Bonds look to have the potential for wealth destruction
Edward Bonham Carter, Jupiter Asset Management's chief executive, reveals his thoughts on the new year's financial prospects.

cos its this time of the year eheheLINK

Syd 08:06 GMT January 2, 2011
European debt markets face second credit crisis
European debt markets ‘face second credit crisis’
European debt markets could be hit by a second credit crisis within months as fears grow over the huge volume of new bonds that must be sold by governments and banks in 2011.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:23 GMT January 2, 2011
Gold : Critical Level 1400.6
Entry: Target: Stop:

Gold : Critical Level 1400.6

Weekly Cycle Directional Indicator : 1380.6 - 1396.9 - 1400.6* - 1406.6 - 1414.4 - 1415.8 - 1423.9* - 1426.4 - 1427.1* - 1427.6 - 1427.9* - 1481.8

Significant Levels : (1400.6 - 1423.9 - 1427.1 - 1427.9)

Remarks : The market is under pressure when it is below 1400.6* and speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1380.6.

Syd 02:18 GMT January 2, 2011
NKorea warns war would bring 'nuclear holocaust'
Despite calls in its annual New Year's message for a Korean peninsula free of nuclear weapons, the communist North, which has conducted two nuclear tests since 2006, also said its military is ready for "prompt, merciless and annihilatory action" against its enemies.
Bonds' dramatic year sets stage for higher rates
China preparing for armed conflict 'in every direction'
China is preparing for conflict 'in every direction', the defence minister said on Wednesday in remarks that threaten to overshadow a visit to Beijing by his US counterpart next month. "In the coming five years, our military will push forward preparations for military conflict in every strategic direction," said Liang Guanglie in an interview published by several state-backed newspapers in China. "We may be living in peaceful times, but we can never forget war, never send the horses south or put the bayonets and guns away," Mr Liang added.
China makes Skype illegal
China on Thursday announced that it had made illegal the use of Skype, the popular internet telephony service, as the country continues to shut itself off from the rest of the world.

Syd 01:11 GMT January 2, 2011
Australians sinking under debt burden
AUSTRALIA is heading for an economic crunch as family finances collapse under the burden of record debts, rising interest rates and utility bills.

Buyers warned of risks in 'bargain' US homes
''Some of the properties being offered are in ghettos and you need a bullet-proof vest and an armoured Humvee to collect the rent in there,'' Mr Jenman says.''Tenants also have more rights in the US and if they don't clear the garbage up, it can be the landlord that gets fined - there are a lot more legal issues.'' LINK

Rising interest rates drive mortgage delinquencies
Australian mortgage delinquencies increased considerably in the year to September as interest rate increases hit households, according to Fitch. By value, the delinquency rate rose to 1.54 per cent from 1.23 per cent from a year earlier. "It's not a small move. It's a considerable move," said Fitch's structured finance team associate director, James Zanesi. "One of the main reasons is the interest rate increases." In South West WA, 2.82 per cent of borrowers were behind. "It's like a contradiction," Mr Zanesi said. The higher rate of delinquencies in WA was despite that state leading the mining boom. Mr Zanesi said the housing market in Perth had stagnated and borrowers there also were very sensitive to interest rate increases.

Euro-Zone Bonds to Start New Year With Old Problems
FRANKFURT—With Portugal hitting the debt markets for fresh cash next week, the euro zone looks set to start the new year much as it began 2010: under threat from countries with weak economies and shaky public finances.

Euro stands just 20pc chance of survival in next decade
The euro stands just a one in five chance of surviving in its current form for ten years, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research.
In its annual list of predictions, the CEBR said a new eurozone crisis was its number one forecast for 2011, citing the hundreds of billions of euros of debt that members must replace this year
Spain and Italy alone must refinance more than €400bn (£343bn) of debt in the first half of the year, which could prove impossible given investor fears over the finances of southern European countries.

"The euro might break up at this point, though European politicians are normally able to respond to a crisis and I suspect that what will break up the euro will be the failure of most of the countries to take the tough medicine necessary to make their economies competitive over the longer term," said Mr Douglas.
Mr Douglas added that he was not ruling out another round of government quantitative easing to support the credit markets and prevent a crisis.

"If the euro doesn't break up, this could be the year when it weakens substantially towards parity with the dollar," said Douglas Williams, chief executive of CEBR.

The 20 worst towns for insolvencies in 2010
A record 15 people entered insolvency every hour in 2010, with pensioners now the fastest growing group. We list the UK towns with the highest numbers of people filing for bankruptcy, debt relief orders or individual voluntatry arrangements in 2010.

Pensioner insolvency rises fastest as baby boomers struggle to pay off debts
Pensioners are now the fastest growing group filing for insolvency as Britain's baby boomers struggle to repay debts carried into retirement.


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