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Forex Forum Archive for 01/03/2011

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GVI Forex Blog 23:57 GMT January 3, 2011 Reply   
The dollar was broadly firmer early in Asia on Tuesday, with the yen on the backfoot after upbeat data suggested the world's biggest economy will accelerate in 2011.

FOREX NEWS - Dollar perks up on upbeat data; Aussie slips

Syd 23:51 GMT January 3, 2011
Quito Valdez 22:51 GMT January 3 thanks for your posts , I have to agree with everything you have posted, it reminds me of the Sci Fi movies "The Outer Limits" and its happening right before our eyes , by the time they realize it will be too late .

Quito Valdez 22:51 GMT January 3, 2011
Future of the Euro

Also, Syd, what countries have been hording gold for years? China by the ton (my past post) and Japan... and Russia as well as certain mid east CBs but quietly and likely with no accounting the rest of the world can see.

What is a defunct Euro worth in terms of gold? Not much. Even a non defunct Euro isn't worth much gold either, let alone if it's defunct. Suppose a "bailn out" bargain garage sale price were done to purchase most of EZ with gold if EUR fails? Who owns Europe then? The guys who have the gold. Russia is the 2nd largest gold (and diamond) producer in the world, Canada and USA are also but those countries don't horde gold like Russia does. Russia has also been stashing lots and lots of arms, small, medium and large for years as well. Do we see something emerging here?

China is quietly getting out of USD asset and I read where Russia was as well...slowly, quietly so not to arrouse a tanking market . Let's watch how many USD and Euros there are in CB baskets as time goes for a diminishing amount and as I posted below, non G-5 countrie's cncy is showing up in surprisingly increasing amounts in CB's baskets. China horded USD to control the CNY's relative value vs majors and to preserve it's USA market. Now that that is becoming less necessary I'll bet you'll see less and less USD in Beijing's coffers.

Quito Valdez 22:39 GMT January 3, 2011
Future of the Euro

By the way Syd, think of this scenerio.

1. ECB runs out of resources, flat out broke, flat out naked.
2. The countries who joined this scheme now are without currency.
3. No currency, no nuthin.
4. What to do? Ah, install a single currency for all, globally for USA and all the rest including China can't supply the whole of Europe's defunct EUR countries with enough funds to start up again.
5. Bingo. A universal global currency has to be and is installed, exactly what the poobahs wanted in the first place, a one- world currency, right? Sneaky? Of course. It's just not called the "Euro". Or "Amero" or whatever. The "World-o"?

Also, correct me if I'm wrong but the countries which bought into the Euro had to buy them with their precious metal horde, for Euros are not free for the taking. If they were Euro is just paper. Now, Frankfurt has the precious metal, correct? And if Frankfurt's broke I know one gets the gold back. Straighten me out of this please if I'm wrong. In other words Europe is screwed.

Quito Valdez 22:31 GMT January 3, 2011
Future of the Euro

Syd, now we hear wording, repeatedly, to the effect the Euro must be saved and even, that a failure would bring down Europe. It would not but the poobahs want to scare folks into believing that Arian-based horse pocky. Evidently there is some doubt amongst the EUR Poobahs the EUR might fail or the wording wouldn't exist. Right? And the "promise" to save it. I think you could hear all that from a ship captain who's ship is just about to crash into rocks, and just before he jumps overboard to save his silly hide.

Syd 22:26 GMT January 3, 2011
Future of the Euro
The pressure in Europe's debt markets is likely to continue into 2011, cautions Torge Middendorf, economist at WestLB. He and Lim Say Boon, CIO at DBS Bank, discuss where the euro is headed, with CNBC's Maithreyi Seetharaman, Yousef Gamal El-Din & Lisa Oake.

Koreas Sharpen Rhetoric .

Lahore FM 22:24 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: 1.0088 Target: 0,94 Stop: 1.0180


GVI Forex john 22:06 GMT January 3, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Entry: Target: Stop:

Res 3	1.3571	82.09	0.9484	1.5940	1.0080	1.0364	0.7945
Res 2	1.3497	81.81	0.9440	1.5802	1.0043	1.0308	0.7879
Res 1	1.3432	81.50	0.9390	1.5702	1.0000	1.0264	0.7837

Pivot	1.3358	81.22	0.9346	1.5564	0.9963	1.0208	0.7771

Sup 1	1.3293	80.91	0.9296	1.5464	0.9920	1.0164	0.7729
Sup 2	1.3219	80.63	0.9252	1.5326	0.9883	1.0108	0.7663
Sup 3	1.3154	80.32	0.9202	1.5226	0.9840	1.0064	0.7621

GVI Forex john 22:05 GMT January 3, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Entry: Target: Stop:

Last	1.3366	81.18	0.9340	1.5602	0.9957	1.0219	0.7795
High	1.3424	81.54	0.9396	1.5664	1.0006	1.0253	0.7813
Low	1.3285	80.95	0.9302	1.5426	0.9926	1.0153	0.7705
Change	0.0087	-0.35	-0.0018	0.0189	-0.0037	0.0062	0.0090

5 day	1.3254	81.65	0.9406	1.5463	0.9989	1.0161	0.7688
10 day	1.3184	82.42	0.9495	1.5444	1.0048	1.0089	0.7574
20 day	1.3217	83.11	0.9614	1.5570	1.0072	0.9985	0.7517
50 day	1.3459	82.74	0.9761	1.5774	1.0108	0.9912	0.7609
100 day	1.3375	83.22	0.9860	1.5715	1.0212	0.9670	0.7459
200 day	1.3089	86.82	1.0372	1.5404	1.0265	0.9260	0.7258

BIAS	Up	Down	Down	Down	Down	Up	Up

tokyo rana 22:04 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

Lahore FM 21:36 dear brother,thanx same to you im sorry if my post disturbed you......ithink gbp is good buy maybe in few month or few watching gbpjpy around 100/115...happy day,

Syd 22:01 GMT January 3, 2011
Max McKegg - Global Risk Outlook
Thanks Jay for the Link to Max McKegg - Global Risk Outlook focused for AUD/USD & the S+P 500 Stock Index just go to make sure on the right side of that, as the AUD fell from 98 to 60 in a matter of weeks and the way 2011 is shaping up we could be in for another very bumpy ride,

Lloyds 'bad bank' chief Andy Cumming fears 'ripple' effect in UK economy from slump in spending
Andy Cumming, the man in charge of Lloyds Banking Group’s “bad bank”, has warned the UK’s economic recovery remains far from certain as the impact of the financial crisis continues to “ripple” across the country.

The AUD/USD slides in NY trading as US manufacturing data and construction data both slightly beat expectations lifting the USD. But don't expect the overnight slide to be a sell-off, says one Sydney-based FX trader. "The move could be harsh because of the light volume but these numbers aren't enough to start some grand new trend," says trader. The AUD/USD is at 1.016, down from the 1.025 high overnight, with the trader noting the decline has put the cross right on support at the current level.

Armageddon Can Wait
CAMBRIDGE – Where are global currencies headed in 2011? After three years of huge, crisis-driven exchange-rate swings, it is useful to take stock both of currency values and of the exchange-rate system as a whole. And my best guess is that we will see a mix of currency wars, currency collapses, and currency chaos in the year ahead – but that this won’t spell the end of the economic recovery, much less the end of the world.
Armageddon Can Wait

Lahore FM 21:36 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

cheers Rana,many good trades to you!

tokyo rana 21:36 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

i just have totaly oposite view than you brother.....

tokyo rana 21:35 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

no problem going to short soon...iwas short from 83.75 out on friday...

Lahore FM 21:32 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

Rana,whatever you may say i will follow my own course which has little to do with what you speak of.i see the same fundas though in the charts.

you can't teach an old dog new tricks,can you?

usdjpy is along for me so is eurjpy from 108.40 area for if you repeatedly said the opposite it does not change a thing for me.not now not later.for me only the sl is the thing that makes me wrong on the market and i do take the sl and tp both quite humbly!

tokyo rana 21:24 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

dear brother,ithink usdjpy is short all jpy are short reason is fundamental.....soon usa house data will creat big way is not short jpy......anyways good luck....happy day,

Syd 21:24 GMT January 3, 2011
Israel dil 21:21 GMT yes definitely a method behind their madness - they have been rumbled in the USA lets just hope the Europeans dont get sucked in .. reminds me of the Trojan Horse :-))

Quito Valdez 21:23 GMT January 3, 2011
ruthless bank punished
A ruthless USA California bank was bashed albeit punished by a judge and a loan patron's 1/2mln home loan balance was vanquiahed. The bank received Fed bailout aid and still throws debtors on the street...I hope this case sets trend to protect more victims of USA's financial land mine.

GVI Forex john 21:22 GMT January 3, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Global-View Chart Gallery updated. A wide selection of updated forex, interest rate and equity charts.

Global-View Market Tracker updated. Twice daily survey and technical studies of a broad range of related markets.

Israel dil 21:21 GMT January 3, 2011
Cooking Oil's Surge Shows How Inflation Hits Chinese .

Syd 12:05 GMT January 3, 2011

China welcomed debt from Greece, Spain, Italy & Portugal but not from Ireland..Ireland is the sole without olive oil :-)

GVI Forex john 21:10 GMT January 3, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Lahore FM 21:06 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: 81.65 Target: 84.50 Stop: 81.10

placed the orders.

Quito Valdez 20:59 GMT January 3, 2011

...sorta what happened with all the (Japanese et
Asia et al) foreign owned businesses in NZ & Oz, eh? Hi...and I didn't mean that as a greeting.

Syd 20:54 GMT January 3, 2011
Overheating East to falter before the bankrupt West recovers
Overheating East to falter before the bankrupt West recovers
From the overheating East to a troubled West, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard offers his predictions on the global economy next year The German bloc will not confront the elemental point that either they agree to pay subsidies – not loans – on a scale equal to Versailles reparations, for year after year, or the South with stay trapped in slump until electorates blow a fuse.

Lahore FM 20:50 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

lolzz..yes i guess.thanx LA BV!

LA BV 20:45 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

FM you have been on a nice roll when alot of us have been on vacation.

Lahore FM 20:43 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: 86.56 Target: Stop:

closed the longs from 86.56 at 87.49 now.

Cambridge Joe 20:16 GMT January 3, 2011

taken out by raised SL @ 9920. for + 25
taken target for today....
Another day tomorrow.... hopefully with a bit more pazzaz !

Lahore FM 20:15 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: Target: Stop:

eurusd has not made enough progress.i have raised my sl for last long to 1.3320.

we shud have been higher by now but we are not.this speaks of weakness to me but i will give it a day or less to show its mettle.

Syd 20:14 GMT January 3, 2011
Quito Valdez 16:06 GMT spot on about that

Lahore FM 20:13 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: Target: Stop:

closed 1.0200 long for minus 19 at 1.0181 now.

Quito Valdez 19:44 GMT January 3, 2011
Partial data linup this week
Weds: Spain's Industrial Production (Nov) & services PMI (Dec) and less than an hour later EU Dec. Composite PMI & dDec. Services PMI. If any surprises especially in both, would blip charts in this thin mkt.

Thursday & Friday however have significant data if surprises are in store...higher probability of non events if no surprises over consensus.

EU Dec data: biz climate index, Consumer sentiment, Economic Sentiment, Ind Sentiment, Nov Retail trade,
USA data: Initial claims.

EU 2nd release of GDP q3, Unemployment rate
USA hourly earnings, nonfarm payrolls, Unemployment rate, Consumer Credit.

Quito Valdez 19:25 GMT January 3, 2011
UBS AUD/USD targets
UBS's AUD Targets: AUDUSD 1month 0.97, 3month 0.93

Over the weekend, China's manufacturing PMI for December disappointed expectations and fell back to 53.9 (consensus was 55.0) from 55.2 previously. I guess they're also feeling the global economic bite.

Quito Valdez 19:17 GMT January 3, 2011
EUR/USD midrange for last 12mo
UBS's EUR Targets: EURUSD 1month 1.30, 3months 1.25

Daily chart shows EUR/USD at about mid range for last 12 months so to me at least there's no strong corrective potential apparent...just random "Ouiji Board meandering range play" at this point on this pair as far as I'm concerned 'til things develop later this Q.

Cambridge Joe 19:11 GMT January 3, 2011

Just a general ramble on the subject of USDCAD Long.

I covered entry V early, so for me, it 'fire & forget'.

I may get taken out 2 or 3 times... before it takes off and I understand that there are arguments for and against such a tactic.

For myself... I know each time I open trade, I'm immediately on offer for a 20 or 30 pip loss.... until it clears entry... then I make safe.

Anyway... please take a look at USDCAD as I'm seeing it North....

Quito Valdez 18:19 GMT January 3, 2011
shift in cncy holdings
News from UBS: The IMF's reserve manager survey for Q3 2010, shows that a record share of global FX reserves is now held in non-G5 currencies (i.e. in currencies other than the USD, EUR, JPY, GBP and CHF). These other currencies comprise 4.0% of reserve assets, which puts them (as a group) above the yen in terms of their reserve status, and on a par with sterling. The dollar's share of reserves fell to 61.3% (prev. 62.1%) in Q3 - it's lowest ever allocation. The euro's proportion increased slightly to 26.9% (prev. 26.5%).

Cambridge Joe 18:02 GMT January 3, 2011
SL now to entry @ 9894.
Risk free.
V sorry for earlier cock-up.

tokyo rana 17:52 GMT January 3, 2011
buy audjpy

Entry: 83.6/84.5 Target: open Stop: later

short orders placed............happy day,

GVI Forex john 17:47 GMT January 3, 2011
What's the buzz?

-should have added, that the EUR is mostly, but not entirely higher on its crosses. We know this never seems to last.

jerusalem kb 17:26 GMT January 3, 2011
buy audjpy
Entry: 83.20 Target: 83.60-84.05 Stop: 82.95

adding another long now

Cambridge Joe 17:24 GMT January 3, 2011

umble appologies fat fingers it was USDCAD
Many appologies

Cambridge Joe 17:19 GMT January 3, 2011
Trying now with a small GBPJPY LOng
Entry 9894

GVI Forex Blog 17:09 GMT January 3, 2011 Reply   
EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) as of Monday (1/03/2011) has been rangebound within an approximate 500 pip trading range since the 1.2970 low was hit about a month ago.

EUR/USD Rangebound with Overall Bearish Bias

jerusalem kb 17:07 GMT January 3, 2011
usdchf charts

Entry: Target: Stop:

as per h4 chart price formed a buy signal above 423.6 so i will wait if the price goes up and formed a new supports where i can plot trend line and trade its breakout if (macd , rsi confirm this).
now it formed a new support (small) on hr1 chart and close below it , i should wait for a retest of this support to confirm that it is a valid support then i may go short.

jerusalem kb 17:01 GMT January 3, 2011
buy usdjpy
Entry: 81.25 Target: 82.25 Stop: 80.75

placed a buy pending order

Lahore FM 17:01 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: 1.3316 Target: Stop:

Lahore FM 15:59 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas: Reply
Entry: 1.3316 Target: Stop: 1.3280 for 1/2
rest closed 1.3370 now.standing aside other than original long portion.

GVI Forex john 16:41 GMT January 3, 2011
What's the buzz?

- Trying to get oriented. Falling yields on U.S. treasuries giving equities a boost. EURUSD still correlates positively with higher shares.
- Commodity currencies (AUD, CAD and NZD) all better. AUD and CAD reopen tomorrow. NZ to remain on holiday. Risk on?
- Gold, Silver, Crude and Natural Gas are all stronger.
- Equities in the U.S. and those open in Europe are mostly higher.
- There is some "logic" to what is happening, but don't press this theory too far.

Macau JJ 16:32 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

USD suddenly free fall

Quito Valdez 16:27 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

Chicago, be aware mkt is still thin, therefore overly reactive to the slightest thing, as Jay indicated, it's whipsaw and weill be so 'til mkt regains volume and momentum. I'd sit back and watch this week and maybe most of next unless one is into high risk and excitement with small "test" positions that won't cost you much if they go back on you. You can look at last Q trends and techs on dailies as well as present fundamentals to acquire a plan and bias. I'd spend this time reading not pundits but qualified end of year bias and reports and planning a plan A trading board and B escape plan. I find that UBS's ideas don't pan out as well as I want either. Right now I'd try to establish Q1 trend prediction/bias til mkt begins to tell it's own story in mid January.

GVI Forex Jay 16:22 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

It is hard to find one catalyst as you see here by the light discussion flow. Market is thin and many are still on holiday.

Firm stocks have seen some "risk on" flows (e.g. eur/jpy firmer), a firmer eur/gbp is giving eur/usd some supprot as well (good trade call FM) and US yields are off earlier high (10 yr last 3.35%).

Seems like a typical start of the year whipsaw.

Chicago AGA 16:07 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

Is there any news out?

Quito Valdez 16:06 GMT January 3, 2011
China Says Spain Debt Buys to Continue

Sitting pretty on my standard Sunday-Monday TPs of EUR/CHF shorts so will sit back and let mkt acquire momentum for a couple weeks more before putting in trades any given midweek.

China is being heralded as "the hero on a white horse" by buying Spain albeit lots of EZ debt supposedly to do them a favor and finance recovery. There are no favors in business. China is no fool and there is something great in this for them...owning more of everything. They are buying up physical stuff, not debt, in USA quietly by the billions of bucks too for they assume recovery will profit them, not to be "nice" and buy up bankrupt businesses/properites, tourist stuff etc.. That's neither good nor bad per se, hey, it's a free mkt ain't it? But be ready to accept in less than one generation a huge injection of Chinese control and diversification of incomes globally (income = capital = power) and know that such amounts of control housed under one influential "roof" is just that. LOL, conspiracy theorists nag about NWO and it's vehicle the EZ-EUR concept, sheesh, think about China. This has nothing to do with trading this week but while we wait for mkt to recover momentum, that's my take.

GVI Forex Blog 16:02 GMT January 3, 2011 Reply   
US equity markets have begun 2011 on a strong note, with stocks heading higher on positive follow-through strength from overseas markets US Market Update

Lahore FM 15:59 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: 1.3316 Target: Stop: 1.3280 for 1/2

Lahore FM 14:54 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas: Reply
Entry: 1.3316 Target: Stop: 1.3265

additional long entered once more.
closed half at 1.3354 to 1.3280 for rest of it.

Lahore FM 15:37 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: correction* Target: Stop:

Lahore FM 15:36 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas: Reply
Entry: 0.8571* Target: Stop: 0.8560* for 1/2

Lahore FM 15:36 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: 0.85710.8 Target: Stop: 560 for 1/2

01/02/2011 22:51:13 FM Lahore 8

Entry: Target: Stop:
i am long at today's open 0.8568/71
half closed now of this additional long eurgbp taken up at open today at 0.8616,sl placed at 0.8560.

GVI Forex john 15:35 GMT January 3, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Entry: Target: Stop:

January 3 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, January 4:

  • Far East: NZ- holiday No major releases.
  • Europe: EZ- HICP inflation, GB- Mfg PMI, CH retail sales
  • North America: Factory Orders, Fed Minutes, API Energy.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar

GVI Forex john 15:11 GMT January 3, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Interesting that U.S. and EZ manufacturing PMIs are about even...

GVI Forex john 15:03 GMT January 3, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

-- ALERT --

December ISM PMI: 57.0

Lahore FM 14:54 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: 1.3316 Target: Stop: 1.3265

additional long entered once more.

GVI Forex Blog 14:49 GMT January 3, 2011 Reply   
Is Spain the eurozone's last gauntlet? EMU-16 is now EMU-17 Many markets remain closed; reopening tomorrow USD strong on 2011 Day 1

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (3 January 2011)

Israel dil 14:34 GMT January 3, 2011
China Says Spain Debt Buys to Continue
MADRID—China supports Spain's economic reforms and will continue buying its government debt, Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang wrote in a newspaper editorial on the eve of a visit to Spain.

"We have confidence in the European financial market, and, in particular, the Spanish financial market, which has meant the purchase of its public debt, something which we will continue to do in the future," Mr. Li wrote in El Pais, Spain's largest circulating general newspaper.

Spain has faced increasing difficulties in financing a yawning budget deficit after Greece's financial meltdown in early 2010 sparked concern over the problems of other fiscally frail euro-zone countries. Spain responded with emergency budget cuts as well as politically difficult reforms designed to boost economic growth.

China, on the other hand, has provided crucial support to volatile financial markets with its purchases of euro-zone sovereign debt. China is one of the biggest foreign owners of Spanish sovereign debt, with around 10% of the total.

Mr. Li will visit Spain Jan. 4 to Jan. 6 and will meet with King Juan Carlos, Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Finance Minister Elena Salgado and Foreign Minister Trinidad Jimenez. In a statement, the foreign ministry said Spain plans to sign an "important number" of agreements with the Chinese in the banking, telecommunications, energy and transport sectors.

After his visit to Spain, Li will travel to Germany Jan. 6 to Jan. 9 and the U.K. Jan. 9 to Jan.12.


* China as the savior of the nations drowning under debt.

Israel dil 14:27 GMT January 3, 2011
extreme volatility nears
if Europe and their problems raised worries for global financial stability, now the flow of news about negative financial administration in the USA start hitting the wires and stop of the negative news cannot be seen at the horizon, all gets ready for extreme volatility in the financial markets.

0bama aide: Debt limit fight could be "catastrophic"

catastrophic consequences if Republicans follow through on threats to reject an increase in the nation's borrowing limit.

New GOP oversight chairman calls administration 'corrupt'

"When I look at waste, fraud and abuse in the bureaucracy and in the government, this is like steroids to pump up the muscles of waste."

and many many other negative stories come out above the surface and it is not about who is better but it's all about who will collapse first. China's real estate bubble is quite for now that it may come out as the catalyst for chaos in the financial markets during 2011.

confused? so, good trades :-)

GVI Forex john 14:06 GMT January 3, 2011
What's the Buzz

Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? -- Ongoing forum discussion

  • End of year USD weakness a frequent seasonal phenomenon. We will be watching to see if it persists in the new year.

  • European sovereign debt issues still not resolved. Could continue to flip back and forth.

  • JPY to remain in demand vs. USD. End of year JPY demand could persist for a while.  

  • A number of key markets are closed Monday. Activity will be in full swing by Tuesday. 

  • The U.S. ISM PMI is set for release today.  

GVI Forex Blog 13:54 GMT January 3, 2011 Reply   
The UK Telegraph again stirred the euro pot today with a rather alarming news story raising the possibility (high) of a second credit crisis in the Euro Zone and surprisingly not an opinion piece by the “erudite” Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.

Forex - UK Telegraph Shines Light on 2011 EZ Funding Broad Daylight (FXA)

to dr unken katt 13:24 GMT January 3, 2011
euro short tp 3180

Lahore FM 13:10 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: 1.3271 Target: Stop: 1.3250 for 1/2

01/03/2011 09:15:51 FM Lahore 2

Entry: Target: Stop:
Lahore FM 08:10 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas: Reply
Entry: 1.3271 Target: Stop: 1.3215

Entry: 1.3271 Target: Stop: 1.3215

added long with its own sl.
half out at 1.3313 to 1.3250 for rest of it.
rest closed of this additional long at 1.3353 now.

GVI Forex Blog 13:10 GMT January 3, 2011 Reply   
13:00 GMT ( January 3 - The first year of the New Year is often one strewn with landmines in the form of false moves and whipsaws as the market starts the slow process of restoring liquidity.

Typical Tricky Start of the Year

GVI Forex Jay 13:05 GMT January 3, 2011
Tech Talk

13:00 GMT ( January 3 - The first year of the New Year is often one strewn with landmines in the form of false moves and whipsaws as the market starts the slow process of restoring liquidity. On Monday, the dollar is trading mixed to a touch firmer as many centers are still closed so the price action has to be taken with a grain of salt. The EURUSD has traded technically with the low at 1.3250 pausing above 1.3240 = 50% of 1.3056-1.3424 in week where fundamental factors will be a focus. Specifically, the key focus will be on the U.S. employment report on Friday and logic suggests the dollar should find support ahead of it although its weak close for the year means it has some technical obstacles to overcome for the market to start trading on a firmer growth-firmer dollar theme

As posted earlier:

Low so far 1.3250

On the downside (1.3056-1.3424)
1.3240 = 50%
1.3197 = 61.8%

On the upside (1.3424-1.3250):
1.3316 = 38.2% - broken
1.3337 = 50% - broken
1.3358 = 61.8%

GVI Forex Blog 13:04 GMT January 3, 2011 Reply   

Euro Traders Waiting for More News

jerusalem kb 12:48 GMT January 3, 2011
usdcad charts

Entry: 0.9910 Target: 0.9860/open Stop: 0.9960

sell stop

GVI Forex Blog 12:11 GMT January 3, 2011 Reply   
Dollar-Swiss has not seen significant move since morning and we continue to hold our morning view on the pair today.

FX Thoughts for the day : 03-Jan--2011 - 1210 GMT

Syd 12:05 GMT January 3, 2011
Cooking Oil's Surge Shows How Inflation Hits Chinese .
SHANGHAI—These days, Liu Chuansheng nervously scouts five locations before he buys cooking oil, illustrating how a sudden spike in the price of the Chinese kitchen's most vital ingredient has become close to a national crisis.

BEIJING (AFP)--Chinese scientists say they have developed nuclear fuel reprocessing technology that could effectively end uranium supply concerns, state media said Monday, as Beijing strives for energy security

GVI Forex john 11:33 GMT January 3, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Earlier today Final EZ mfg PMI revised higher...

Syd 11:31 GMT January 3, 2011
The Party Is Over In Australia As Debt And Living Costs Surge
Australian stock market and the Chinese stock market have been weak. This is in spite of the fact that commodities have been on fire. Both countries have had overheating economies led by real estate bubbles.
It will be interesting to see how the Reserve Bank of Australia handles this. Failure to hike rates would hurt the Australian dollar and increase the price of imports while hiking rates further will crush the real estate bubble.
China's problem is far more complex.
For more on China please see
Misguided Love Affair with China; China's Massive Monetary Expansion and Crackup Boom
China Hikes Rates, Ponders Capital Controls to Halt Currency Inflows; Eight Reasons China Faces Hard Landing

GVI Forex john 11:30 GMT January 3, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Released early Saturday. Weaker than expected...

GVI Forex john 11:27 GMT January 3, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Global-View Chart Gallery updated. A wide selection of updated forex, interest rate and equity charts.

Global-View Market Tracker updated. Twice daily survey and technical studies of a broad range of related markets.

GVI Forex Blog 11:09 GMT January 3, 2011 Reply   
11:00 GMT ( January 3- Many markets are still closed for new years holidays today, but will be fast to move back into action heading into Tuesday. The sixty-four dollar questions are whether the the EUR will be weak or strong in the new year and whether the JPY will remain in demand.

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- 2011 Begins

Syd 10:53 GMT January 3, 2011
Albert Edwards, SocGen bear, takes a bite out of China
Analyst famous for his Ice Age thesis sees a new economic crisis on the way

In Edwards' view, China is a "freak economy"; its investment-to-GDP ratio is off the scale in terms of size and endurance. "In development history, Korea is the only one that got close. It then collapsed. China is basing a growth model on the most unstable part of GDP. The Chinese authorities have recognised this and are trying to steer the economy over to consumption – which is fine, but it will take a long time."

The danger, he suggests, is that China has produced such strong growth for such a long time that investors assume the process will last indefinitely. "There is too much confidence in the lack of volatility. If you get a zero or a small minus for Chinese GDP, in the great scheme of long-term development it's not a great problem. But it's a bit like investing in Nasdaq stocks in 2000 – there would be a big adjustment in price. There is an investment edifice built on the idea that China is the new growth engine of the world."

The notion that we are back in a sustainable economic recovery is as ludicrous as it was in 2005-07. But investors are backon the dance floor, waltzing their way towards the next, inevitable implosion[, which] yet another they will no doubt claim in retrospect was totally unpredictable!"
The Golden Resources shopping mall in Beijing. SocGen's Albert Edwards warns that growth in China could slow rapidly

GVI Forex Blog 10:51 GMT January 3, 2011 Reply   
The USD was off its best levels experienced during the latter part of a thin-Asian session against the majors. Initially dealers labeled the USD's gain as a correction of its losses seen in the final trading days of 2010. European Market Update: PMI data shows that economic recovery remained intact at the start of 2011

GVI Forex Jay 10:37 GMT January 3, 2011
Max McKegg
Max McKegg has made available his 2011 Global Risk Outlook.

"With 2011 now upon us I am updating my global “risk outlook”. I remain focused upon theAUD/USD & the S+P 500 Stock Index, as prime indicators for the risk “on”/risk “off” dynamic."

If you would like a copy send me an EMAIL

Toronto M.Dunleavy 10:35 GMT January 3, 2011
Sel AudUsd

Entry: 1.02401.0360 Target: 0.9680 Stop: 1.03201.0440

AUD/USD is now above the previous historic highs of 1.0180, and sees only 1.0300/60 as the next resistance level, in uncharted territory.
Excel Chart.Full size =>>>

GVI Forex Blog 10:29 GMT January 3, 2011 Reply   
During this session, we will cover a simple set of rules that anyone can use for short and long term trading in the Forex market

Forexpros Daily Analysis - 03/01/2011

jerusalem kb 09:41 GMT January 3, 2011
usdcad charts

closed -14pips will reload later

Hong Kong 09:18 GMT January 3, 2011
GBP/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader
Entry: Target: Stop:


Last Update At 03 Jan 2011 08:49 GMT

Despite extending intra-day selloff fm 1.3395 to
as low at 1.3250 in European morning, subsequent
rebound suggests Fri's decline fm 1.3425 has possi-
bly made a minor low n consolidation with upside
bias is seen, abv 1.3333 confirms, 1.3355/60.

Turn long on dips for this move n only below 1.3
250 risks marginal fall twd 1.3224 b4 rebound.

Range Forecast
1.3280 / 1.3310

R: 1.3333/1.3378/1.3395
S: 1.3250/1.3224/1.3200

Lahore FM 09:15 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: Target: Stop:

Lahore FM 08:10 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas: Reply
Entry: 1.3271 Target: Stop: 1.3215

Entry: 1.3271 Target: Stop: 1.3215

added long with its own sl.
half out at 1.3313 to 1.3250 for rest of it.

Lahore FM 08:51 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: 1.0200 Target: Stop: 1.0140

long here.

Lahore FM 08:35 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

gbpusd can bounce from 1.5450/1.5470.

Lahore FM 08:10 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: 1.3271 Target: Stop: 1.3215

Entry: 1.3271 Target: Stop: 1.3215

added long with its own sl.

Lahore FM 08:04 GMT January 3, 2011
PBOC May Hike By 150 Bps In Total This Year - ING

Entry: 1.3271 Target: Stop: 1.3215

added long with its own sl.

Syd 07:41 GMT January 3, 2011
PBOC May Hike By 150 Bps In Total This Year - ING
ING expects a cumulative 150 bp China rate hike in 2011; the house says inflation is expected to peak below 6% by the middle of 2011 and it will likely recede thereafter. China's December official PMI fell to 53.9 from November's 55.2; this "signals a relief on the inflation front," ING says. The house cites the state television, quoting Prime Minster Wen Jiabao as saying, the government would intensify efforts to curb consumer price inflation after it hit a 28-month high of 5.1% on-year in November on rising food prices. "We attribute persistent high inflation to a fall in outside money demand following the State Council property measures in April," the report adds.

Schools put on swine flu alert: As Christmas holidays end, doctors warn of a 'children's epidemic'
Britain is on the brink of a ‘children’s epidemic’ of swine flu as schools and nurseries reopen this week.

States flag new mining tax row
A NEW battle over the mineral resources rent tax is looming as Western Australia and Queensland push for the regional infrastructure fund promised as a sweetener to be excluded from the system for carving up more than $50 billion in GST receipts

mumbai 07:19 GMT January 3, 2011
Happy New Year 2011.. World Is Doing Great..
Below is the excerpt from an interesting post on friday from the website of Mahendra Sharma (,

We must thank nature for providing world right directions as well as peaceful time. We don’t know what hidden power is out there but surely something is there which is taking care of us very well. So we bow our head to and give our gratitude towards that superior power.

"I have very positive feeling about coming year 2011 and I must remind you to keep your positive energy. My job will be keeping to informing you future hidden path of financial markets and all trading decisions I'll leave to you.

Nuclear energy related stocks are quieting down after recent spurts but surely they're ready to lighten the world. Only nuclear power can provide the world a safer energy source and ready to take challenge on power shortage. Russia is rushing to take over uranium mining companies around the globe. Many smart people are investing big money in uranium mining companies. And our fund “5 Elements Global Fund” is ready to take a ride in the future coming, unique wave of nuclear energy."

He has also put his weekly newsletter from 27-31 here in short ...

jerusalem kb 06:54 GMT January 3, 2011
usdcad charts

Entry: 0..9920 Target: 0.9860/open Stop: 0.9980


Quito Valdez 06:33 GMT January 3, 2011
149 pip Gap in chart

It'd look like a corney unwolf. Welcome back, all. Trying like everyone else to see something amidst the new year's pundit blabla...
Kiplinger predicts 2011. And I've also read much the opposite for USD regarding debt breakdown of the currency. My trading plan for Q1 overall will be to watch confidence in USD & EUR as both didn't fare well in 2010 Q4 due to dilution of both cncys with ECB bailouts and USA Obama-ized stimulus garbage that hasn't worked. My money like last year will be watching CHF and I wouldn't be surprised to see Au @ 1,430s soon.

Grain supported...lower production higher demand & all affected by adverse climate. Grains up = meats/eggs/lacto products up, fuel for more inflation.

It will be competition between EUR & USD for confidence of traders, but USD may come out ahead (??) for how long we'll see. Pound, dunno. Yen should maintain strength unless BOJ intervenes.

Took my Sunday-Monday profit already on EUR/CHF short as usual. Nice to do first week of the year. GT all.

Hong Kong 06:20 GMT January 3, 2011
EUR/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader
Entry: Target: Stop:


Last Update At 03 Jan 2011 04:27 GMT

Rate : 1.3293

Intra-day drop to 1.3276 on active cross selling
in euro vs other majors suggests near term fall fm
last Friday's high of 1.3425 to retrace recent rise
remains in force, however, only a breach of 1.3275
wud bring further weakness to 1.3250/54 b4 rebound.

Abv 1.3333 wud signal an intra-day low has possi
bly been made n yield gain to 1.3378. Stand aside.

Range Forecast
1.3276 / 1.3310

R: 1.3333/1.3378/1.3395
S: 1.3275/1.3254/1.3224

Syd 03:51 GMT January 3, 2011
MS Tips A 15% Drop In China Home Prices In 2011
Morgan Stanley believes 2011 is going to be another challenging year for mainland developers but adds their current valuations suggest the negatives (which can be foreseen for the next 12 months) may be in their share prices already. Says the sector is now trading at an average discount of 48% to the house's forward NAV estimates, which is below the historical average discount of 25%; "a 2008-type capitulation in stock prices is unlikely to recur against a completely different macro backdrop." Considering the generally limited downside risk from here, the house suggests buying opportunities for selected China property stocks. The house keeps a neutral view on the physical market, and expects an average 15% on-year decline in China residential prices.

SF MRZ 03:11 GMT January 3, 2011
Asian Real Money Accounts Sell Aussie,Kiwi-Dealer

Entry: Target: Stop:

thks, that's what I like to hear...sooner before it happens j/k :>

tokyo rana 03:10 GMT January 3, 2011
149 pip Gap in chart

remember friday near close was bigger spread so thats why maybe u confuse my oppnion donot trade on gaps bcoz audusd still have un filled gaps....happy day,

Syd 03:01 GMT January 3, 2011
Asian Real Money Accounts Sell Aussie,Kiwi-Dealer
Asian real money accounts, mainly insurance companies, sell large amounts of AUD/USD and NZD/USD, says Singapore-based dealer. The selling drives the AUD/USD to as low as 1.0176 from above 1.0200 this morning and drives the NZD/USD to 0.7743 from 0.7765, dealer adds. The AUD/USD was last at 1.0188 and the NZD/USD was at 0.7750.

Hong Kong 02:58 GMT January 3, 2011
AUD/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader
Entry: Target: Stop:


AUD/USD : 1.0182

Last Update At 03 Jan 2011 02:36 GMT

Aussie's weakness strongly suggests LT uptrend
has indeed formed a temp. top Friday at 1.0257 n
consolidation with downside bias wud be seen for a
minor retracement to 1.0152, however, this move is
corrective, reckon 1.0111/18 sup shud hold.

Turn short on pullback with stop as indicated,
break wud risk 1.0240 but 1.0257 wud remain intact.

Range Forecast
1.0170 / 1.0200

R: 1.0257/1.0286/1.0338
S: 1.0152/1.0118/1.0067

sf mrz 02:57 GMT January 3, 2011
149 pip Gap in chart

Entry: Target: Stop:


4 digits after the decimal, the 5th being fractional.


Thanks for bring it to my attention

tokyo rana 02:53 GMT January 3, 2011
149 pip Gap in chart

you mean 14.9pips gap?or 149pips?

SF MRZ 02:50 GMT January 3, 2011
149 pip Gap in chart

Entry: Target: Stop:

Your right, forgot what I was looking at...fractional points...laughing at myself...I haven't really particpated on this forum for many years now since the 90's...getting my feet wet in the forex market again...took a break and did real estate.

atlanta blahblah 02:44 GMT January 3, 2011
149 pip Gap in chart

awe everyone is making fun of sf because he is counting his fractional pips as whole pips. lol. i think thats whats going on but... idk. maybe rana is right and your platform is all screwy. and maybe a unicorn could make babies with a werewolf.

what would that look like?

SF MRZ 02:43 GMT January 3, 2011
AudUsd 2010 to 2011 tick data
Entry: Target: Stop:

01/02/2011 21:03:22 1.01824
01/02/2011 21:03:22 1.01824
01/02/2011 21:03:22 1.01822
12/31/2010 12:00:02 1.02329
12/31/2010 12:00:02 1.02327
12/31/2010 12:00:02 1.02325
12/31/2010 11:59:54 1.02329

sf mrz 02:41 GMT January 3, 2011
149 pip Gap in chart

having trouble uploading chart

SF MRZ 02:36 GMT January 3, 2011
149 pip Gap in chart

Entry: Target: Stop:

tick chart attach

sf mrz 02:34 GMT January 3, 2011
149 pip Gap in chart

Entry: Target: Stop:

check out the bid difference between close and open of 2010 to 2011.

your stop hunting if u ask me.

tokyo rana 02:16 GMT January 3, 2011
149 pip Gap in chart

SF MRZ 00:13 dear friend,where do u see 149pips gap?ithink ur broker cheating u....and for ur kind info in audusd chart still have many unfilled gaps if u look.....happy day,

Tonbridge AL 01:43 GMT January 3, 2011
Tech Talk

Weekly setup videos for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD for the week ahead
Click here to access the videos

Hong Kong 00:54 GMT January 3, 2011
Daily FX Market Outlook by AceTrader-3-1-2010
Market Review - 31/12/2010 20:50 GMT

Dollar falls broadly and hits record low against Swiss franc

The dollar weakened across the board on Friday as traders closed their books for 2010. Investors continued to buy the Swiss franc as safe-haven currency on lingering European debt worries. The greenback fell to a fresh all time low against the Swiss franc of 0.9301 while the dollar weakened to a 7-week low against the Japanese yen. The pair dropped from 81.53 and reached 80.95 in NY session before stabilizing.

The single currency traded with a firm undertone on Friday in Asia and Europe. Price rallied to as high as 1.3391 ahead of European opening after triggering stops above 1.3315 and 1.3330 in thin market conditions. Euro later climbed to as high as 1.3425 in NY session before retreating on profit taking.

In other notable news, Bloomberg reported earlier German Chancellor Angela Merkel said, in an advance text of a New Year's speech to the nation, vowed to defend the euro as 'the foundation' of Germany's economy and called for resolve to bolster the single currency. She said 'Europe is in the midst of a great test, we must strengthen the euro.'

The British pound rose in tandem with euro and price was lifted by the release of stronger-than-expected U.K. housing data. Cable's intra-day rally picked up more upward momentum after penetrating Thursday's high of 1.5535 and later rallied to 1.5680 in NY session before easing.

Cable was supported by the release of an unexpected increase in U.K. house prices which rose by 0.4% m/m and 0.4% y/y in December versus the expectation of -0.3% m/m and -0.4% y/y. Cross-buying in pound also lifted cable as eur/gbp fell from 0.8646 to 0.8559.

Economic indicator to be released next week include:

Swiss PMI, Germany Manufacturing PMI, EU Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing and Construction spending on Monday (New Zealand, Australia, U.K. and Canada will be closed on Monday), Germany unemployment rate, U.K. Manufacturing PMI, Mortgage Approval, EU CPI, US Factory order and FOMC meeting minutes on (Market holiday in New Zealand ) Tuesday, Germany Services PMI, EU Service PMI and PPI and Industrial orders, U.K. Construction PMI, U.S. ADP employment and ISM Non-manufacturing on Wednesday, Swiss CPI, UK Service PMI, EU Business Climate, Economic Sentiment, Retail Sales, Germany Factory orders and US Jobless claims on Thursday, Swiss Unemployment rate, Germany trade data and Industrial production, EU GDP, US non-farm payrolls and jobs data on Friday.

Syd 00:31 GMT January 3, 2011
Israel dil 23:46 thanks

GVI Forex Jay 00:28 GMT January 3, 2011
Tech Talk

No change to this view posted on Friday:

Looking ahead, it remains to be seen whether this was just seasonal pressures on the dollar and a market looking for cover before yearend or some shift in market dynamic so will let the charts decide aa 2011 market themes develop. As for the EURUSD, it is testing above its 100 day mva (1.3365) but is within its existing range as long as it stays below 1.3498 (see chart). Expect the first few days of the New Year to be choppy but logic suggests the dollar should find support ahead of the key December employment report next Friday.

SF MRZ 00:13 GMT January 3, 2011
149 pip Gap in chart
Entry: Target: Stop:

AudUsd 12/31/2010 close 1.02229
AudUsd 01/02/2011 open 1.02080

Pretty volitile open, 149 pip gap not filled yet


Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
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A 08:55 DE- Employment
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A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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