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Forex Forum Archive for 01/04/2011

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GVI Forex Blog 23:52 GMT January 4, 2011 Reply   
The EUR/USD as anticipated rallied towards 1.3425 the December 31 high. It is about to head towards 1.3450, and 1.35, which is a heavy resistance zone. If you start to see dojis or a hanging man...

FX Levels and Outlooks 1.4.2011 – EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY

Syd 23:45 GMT January 4, 2011
Eurasia Group Warns Of Global Tension In 'Era Of G-Zero'
The world is entering an era in which no country or bloc of countries dominates, and that will have negative implications for the global economy and politics, a high-profile political think tank said Tuesday.

Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer and head of research David Gordon dubbed this as the "era of G-Zero," a reference to international groupings such as the Group of 20 and the Group of Eight. In this era, no country or bloc of countries has the political and economic leverage to drive an international agenda, they said.

Syd 22:36 GMT January 4, 2011
Denis Gartman Closes out his Aud positions
Denis Gartman Closes out his Aud positions
Gartman also says the downtrend in gold could last through much of January.
The "Fast Money" traders share their market insight and midday trading advice. They're joined by Dennis Gartman, founder of "The Gartman Letter," who shares his outlook on gold and oil.

Syd 22:25 GMT January 4, 2011
DJ End Of 'Black Swan' Position Nigh - Analyst
The combination of strong US data and a cautiously optimistic Fed means that "Black Swan" positions -- trades that effectively prepared for financial doomsday and a sharply weaker dollar -- may be unwinding, according to David Gilmore, a partner at Foreign Exchange Analytics. The sharp move below $1400/oz in gold Tuesday may be signalling that investors are more comfortable holding dollars, and that fears of hyperinflation/devaluation are less acute than they once were

November interest rate hike 'prompted fall in house prices'
A decrease in property prices could have been down to the interest rate hike in November.

A decrease in property prices could have been down to the interest rate hike in November.

House prices declined after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) opted to up the interest rate in November, it has been revealed.

According to Weekend Australia, the cost of properties decreased by 0.2 per cent in the same month the organisation decided to hike the official cash level from 4.5 per cent to 4.75 per cent.

And shortly after the RBA's move, the Commonwealth Bank chose to increase the rates on its home loan and savings accounts. What's more, recent figures have revealed property lending to owner-occupiers has dropped to 7.3 per cent, the lowest level in 20 years.

But there could be some relief for those with a mortgage at the beginning of this year, as UBS interest rate strategist Matthew Johnson predicted last month that the RBA will leave another cash level increase - the first of 2011 - until the third quarter, Sun Herald

Will The Default Of A Vietnamese State-Owned Company Be The Black Swan Of 2011?
Vinashin, Vietnam's national shipping company, just missed a debt payment, according to The Guardian.
This may not seem like a big deal at first. Vinashin is owned by the state, so it's unlikely to have a direct impact on a lot of investor's portfolios.
But if it was to need a bailout, the cost would be big. Vinashin has $4.4 billion in debt, which is equivalent to 5% of Vietnam's GDP in 2009, according to The Guardian.
Sounds like another emerging markets crisis that struck fear in the world about a year ago.

Yesterday, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard mentioned a banking rescue in Vietnam as being the source of the 2011-2012 hard landing for the region. Could this be the trigger he had in mind?

GVI Forex john 22:06 GMT January 4, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Entry: Target: Stop:

Trading Resources...

GVI Forex Blog 21:50 GMT January 4, 2011 Reply   
The Canadian dollar finished lower against the greenback for the first time in 10 trading sessions on Tuesday, pulled down by retreating oil prices, but it still ended the day above par

FOREX - CANADA FX DEBT-C$ falls but still finishes above par

GVI Forex john 21:34 GMT January 4, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Entry: Target: Stop:

Res 3	1.3556	82.73	0.9431	1.5711	1.0022	1.0263	0.7819
Res 2	1.3475	82.23	0.9407	1.5648	0.9986	1.0243	0.7801
Res 1	1.3413	81.98	0.9371	1.5562	0.9961	1.0202	0.7766

Pivot	1.3332	81.48	0.9347	1.5499	0.9925	1.0182	0.7748

Sup 1	1.3270	81.23	0.9311	1.5413	0.9900	1.0141	0.7713
Sup 2	1.3189	80.73	0.9287	1.5350	0.9864	1.0121	0.7695
Sup 3	1.3127	80.48	0.9251	1.5264	0.9839	1.0080	0.7660

GVI Forex john 21:28 GMT January 4, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Entry: Target: Stop:

Last	1.3351	81.72	0.9336	1.5477	0.9937	1.0161	0.7730
High	1.3394	81.74	0.9382	1.5584	0.9949	1.0223	0.7784
Low	1.3251	80.99	0.9322	1.5435	0.9888	1.0162	0.7731
Change	-0.0015	0.54	-0.0004	-0.0125	-0.0020	-0.0058	-0.0065

5 day	1.3301	81.51	0.9369	1.5482	0.9977	1.0175	0.7721
10 day	1.3210	82.22	0.9470	1.5445	1.0024	1.0109	0.7604
20 day	1.3221	83.03	0.9587	1.5556	1.0064	1.0000	0.7525
50 day	1.3449	82.75	0.9750	1.5766	1.0102	0.9919	0.7614
100 day	1.3381	83.19	0.9849	1.5713	1.0207	0.9682	0.7466
200 day	1.3088	86.77	1.0366	1.5407	1.0263	0.9266	0.7261

BIAS	Up	Down	Down	Down	Down	Up	Up

Syd 21:27 GMT January 4, 2011
Inflation Adds to Flood Damage for the Aussie
The floods damaging Queensland are an obvious problem for the Australian dollar. But, inflation could prove the real killer for the currency this year.
Indications are that Asian central banks, which might have been delaying interest rate hikes while the U.S. dollar was weak, are more willing to tighten monetary policy now that the prospects for the U.S. economy and the dollar are improving. For the Australian dollar this can only be more bad news as Asian growth, including that of China, slows and the demand for Australian exports declines. The Aussie may well have ended 2010 on quite a high–reaching a 28-year peak of $1.0258 against its U.S. counterpart as commodity prices continued their year-long rally and speculation over another early rise in Australian interest rates became rife.

DJ Dollar Higher Ahead Of Fed Minutes Release
The dollar is holding onto its gains against the euro and yen Tuesday afternoon just before the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its December meeting. The notes could reveal if Fed officials' views of the economy match the improvement seen recently in economic data. Signs that the economy is strengthening could push Treasury yields higher making the dollar a more attractive investment.

CAD Favored, AUD Not In 2011 - BNPP
Rising inflation is a major concern for Asian policy makers, says BNP Paribas, which expects policy tightening along with other measures designed to control hot-money inflows in 2011. The bank says such action will likely see risk appetite challenged, with the quasi-China trades most at risk. AUD may initially garner support from any CNY appreciation but BNP says it's at risk from a significant correction due to its overvaluation. On the other hand, CAD is not associated with the quasi-China trade and will likely be supported by a U.S. recovery. Therefore BNP favors selling AUD/CAD at 1.03 to target 0.88 with a stop at 1.06, and shorting EUR/CAD, for the same reasons, at 1.34 with a target of 1.25 and a stop at 1.36. EUR/CAD trades at 1.3340; AUD/CAD at 1.0026

Gold Vending Machines Come to U.S.

GVI Forex john 21:19 GMT January 4, 2011
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Lahore FM 21:08 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: Target: Stop:

a rise above 1.3340/50 needed to resume higher.will probably happen over next 12 hours.

GVI Forex john 20:49 GMT January 4, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

nyc ws 20:10 GMT January 4, 2011
war zone
It felt like a war zone today rather than a trading market and then a retreat when the pain hit and the soldiers went home to lick their wounds.

Washington DC FRB 19:55 GMT January 4, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Some Fed Officials Had High Threshold to Alter QE2

Federal Reserve policy makers said that improvements in the economy didn’t meet the threshold for scaling back their plans to purchase $600 billion in bonds.

“While the economic outlook was seen as improving, members generally felt that the change in the outlook was not sufficient to warrant any adjustments to the asset-purchase program, and some noted that more time was needed to accumulate information on the economy before considering any adjustment,” the Fed said in minutes of its Dec. 14 policy meeting, released today in Washington.

jerusalem kb 19:09 GMT January 4, 2011
buy pending order on audjpy

Entry: 82.15 Target: 83.20-open Stop: 81.70

placed a buy pending order on audjpy
sl now at 81.90

GVI Forex john 19:04 GMT January 4, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

-- ALERT --
Fed indicates "high threshold" for adjusting its bond purchases (= QE2).

Israel dil 18:56 GMT January 4, 2011
NY is booming and profitable
New York City, where tourism is the fifth-biggest private employer, drew a record 48.7 million visitors in 2010, a gain of 6.8 percent over the preceding year, Mayor Michael Bloomberg said.

New York City's Record 48.7 Million Tourists Spent $31 Billion

* good time for (big) APPLE

GVI Forex Jay 18:47 GMT January 4, 2011
Tech Talk

For those who have not read our newsletters, Tornbridge Al wrote a second article on using pivot points in this month's issue. If you want to see a copy, send me an EMAIL

From our FX Chart points

Res 1 = 1.3432 => the exact high today

Sup 1 = 1.3283 vs. 1.3291 low

They don't work all the time but enough times to pay notice.

chi tt 18:29 GMT January 4, 2011

1.3345 is 38.2% of today's range

hillegom purk 18:19 GMT January 4, 2011

Yo Yo thingy back. So if continues 134 again tomorrow. Nice way to start the year with!

chi tt 18:10 GMT January 4, 2011

1.3320 is 5 minute trendline

GVI Forex john 18:10 GMT January 4, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Event @ 19:00 GMT
Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC Minutes)

Three weeks after the each FOMC meeting, the Fed releases minutes of that meeting. The minutes provide an in-depth summary of what was discussed at the meeting and list those who voted with the majority and those who dissented.

London SMS 17:59 GMT January 4, 2011
Adding to gold long

Sorry - meant 1379

Israel dil 17:59 GMT January 4, 2011

rana, thanks for clarifying.

nyc s 17:56 GMT January 4, 2011

He is long jpy audjpy long is short jpy.

tokyo rana 17:55 GMT January 4, 2011

Israel dil 17:52 dear friend,iwas short usd$ against jpy and aud.....maybe ur miss taken....happy day,

Israel dil 17:52 GMT January 4, 2011

rana, let me understand, you are USD/JPY short and AUD/USD long, right? if yes, then why not only AUD/JPY long?

tokyo rana 17:50 GMT January 4, 2011
usdjpy 45pips plus audusd 45pips minus no lost no profit so np..another crazy tuesday aud most negitive.....

Lahore FM 17:45 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

Buy Gold
Entry: 1377.95 Target: Stop: 1362

small long in.

London SMS 17:42 GMT January 4, 2011
Adding to gold long
Buy Gold
Entry: 1389 Target: Stop: 1365

Bght more gold here and moved stop down to 1365

Dubai SAS 17:38 GMT January 4, 2011
Entry: 1.0030 Target: Open Stop: 1.0115 Bid

Short now ....

jerusalem kb 17:36 GMT January 4, 2011
usdcad charts

hit sl

NGN CFANFX 17:35 GMT January 4, 2011

Entry: Target: Stop:

trade close @ 108.65 thanks

Caribbean! Rafe... 17:32 GMT January 4, 2011

If you look at it that way the trend is down for one and up for the other against other currencies on which side it may be the base or quote so it depends... So the better way to say it is that USD/CHF trend is down which means you can short it, when we refer to trends here we refer to 1 base and quote as a pair and collectively as 1 instrument because that is what it is but to another it may be ek Jodi (Hindi for 1 Pair).

Lahore FM 17:26 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: 108.50 long order Target: Stop: sl 107.90 for two

placed second long order 108.50

placed collectiv sl for two at 107.90.lowering sl for first long.

Israel dil 17:25 GMT January 4, 2011

I think your meaning is that USD/CHF trend is clearly down. or CHF trend up. right?

jerusalem kb 17:22 GMT January 4, 2011
Entry: 1.3280 Target: 1.3200/1.3055 Stop: 1.3350


Caribbean! Rafe... 17:21 GMT January 4, 2011

HK Kevin 17:09 GMT January 4, 2011

CHF trend is down but the trick to it is to add to shorts watch 9581 entry for target 9236.

again i am on the sidelines, just watching to see what the model points come out as.

Lahore FM 17:16 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: 1.3294 Target: Stop: sl raised to 1.3270

Lahore FM 16:10 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas: Reply
Entry: 1.3294 Target: Stop: 1.3250

long again.
sl raised.

Tallinn viies 17:15 GMT January 4, 2011
everybody expecting 100 $/b very very soon.
socgen was writing that hedge funds long crude oil positions are biggest from 1993.

sounds dangerous, but anyway I left order to buy at 88.12. stop at 87.59.
this is good only today

Lahore FM 17:13 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: 109.04 Target: Stop: 108.30

long on eurjpy.

nyc ws 17:10 GMT January 4, 2011

Kevin. Light trading is the way to survive the first week volatility.

HK Kevin 17:09 GMT January 4, 2011

Caribbean! Rafe... 16:37 GMT, many thanks. I have stayed away from AUD for quite a long time. Can't buy it at historical high and afraid to short and hold.
Light trading for the 1st wk of the New Year.

Caribbean! Rafe... 16:37 GMT January 4, 2011

HK Kevin 16:24 GMT January 4, 2011

From the side lines, real money folks are positioning themselves.

AUD :- Target 9846 or so.

GVI Forex Blog 16:28 GMT January 4, 2011 Reply   
In FX trading, CHF and JPY came off their worst levels thanks to technical factors working against the USD. Earlier in the session better risk appetite stemming from more upbeat global growth expectations weighed on the currencies that benefited from the late December safe-haven flows. US Market Update

HK Kevin 16:24 GMT January 4, 2011

Both resistances of USD/CHF 0.9520 and USD/CAD 0.9990 have been tested and hold initially.

lkwd jj 16:23 GMT January 4, 2011
What's the buzz?

auto sales report due out . time? ford and others moving...

GVI Forex john 16:19 GMT January 4, 2011
What's the buzz?

Entry: Target: Stop:

- Gold, Silver, Oil, Nat gas etc., weaker. Looking for a story other than profit-taking.
- Equity markets opened the year strongly yesterday. They should positively correlate with industrial commodities. Today equities are flat.
- First week in January frequently has been a nightmare to trade.
- Commodity Currencies (AUD, CAD & NZD) all are weaker.
- EUR trading mixed on its crosses and in an exceptionally wide range vs. the USD.
- GBP in demand on chatter about a BP takeover deal.

Israel dil 16:13 GMT January 4, 2011

something is not fitting to the picture, market gets away from risk but CHF is down. is it a trap after all?

lkwd jj 16:10 GMT January 4, 2011
from oil to grains and all in between heavy losses accross the board. bears watching ....

Lahore FM 16:10 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: 1.3294 Target: Stop: 1.3250

long again.

nyc ws 16:08 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

The question is now whether 1.3250 holds. What a start to the year.

Lahore FM 16:07 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: correction* Target: Stop:

from earlier at 1.3320*

Lahore FM 16:06 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: Target: Stop: 1.3320 for last 1/3rd

stopped out of longs from earlier at 1.3220 for 200 pips and few more.

Richland QC Mailman 15:56 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

HI folks. Just in case you do not notice it, AU is dancing within a TRIANGLE on the daily chart. Seems that above 1420 is a TOUGH customer (3x failure)... Looks like price with move within 1378 - 1420. Let us see where it will break.

GVI Forex Jay 15:47 GMT January 4, 2011
Tech Talk

I posted this on GVI Forex as a similar comment made by me last night.

GVI Forex Jay 15:07 GMT January 4, 2011
Tech Talk: Reply
A bit hairy and can't say I caught it but selling above the 100 day mva (1.3375) worked again.

GVI Forex john 15:36 GMT January 4, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

UPDATED Global-View IMM (CME) Futures Swap Points. G-V Forex Spot to Futures Calculator (and back).

London SMS 15:35 GMT January 4, 2011
Gold : Critical Support 1380.6

And thanks Quindex.

GVI Forex john 15:28 GMT January 4, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

UPDATED Global-View Trading Events Calendar. Scheduled market-moving items. Be sure to refresh forum after news to update Countdown Clock.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:22 GMT January 4, 2011
Gold : Critical Support 1380.6
Entry: Target: Stop:

Hong Kong Qindex 07:23 GMT January 2, 2011
Gold : Critical Level 1400.6 : Reply
Entry: Target: Stop:

Gold : Critical Level 1400.6

Weekly Cycle Directional Indicator : 1380.6 - 1396.9 - 1400.6* - 1406.6 - 1414.4 - 1415.8 - 1423.9* - 1426.4 - 1427.1* - 1427.6 - 1427.9* - 1481.8

Significant Levels : (1400.6 - 1423.9 - 1427.1 - 1427.9)

Remarks : The market is under pressure when it is below 1400.6* and speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below 1380.6.

London SMS 15:22 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

Thanks FM. Appreciated. Will double up @ 1378 and put a stop @ 1376. Otherwise - here's hoping.

GVI Forex Blog 15:20 GMT January 4, 2011 Reply   
GBP rockets higher CHF off sharply lower Eurozone inflation above target on energy and food Will U.S. inflation catch up to Europe?

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (4 January 2011)

Lahore FM 15:18 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

SMS gold remains bullish while still above 1377 despite the fall today.

tokyo rana 15:16 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

but behind my bearish bias have reason not just charts...

London SMS 15:16 GMT January 4, 2011
Couldn't help myself....
Buy Gold
Entry: 1388.5 Target: 1405 Stop: 1380

Bght small gold here

tokyo rana 15:13 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

nyc ws 14:31 im bearish on everything expect jpy and gold silver....but gold also little bearish to me...happy day,

London SMS 15:07 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: 30 Target: 31.80 Stop: 25

Will buy more Silver if it goes lower. Order to double up @ 28.50 if seen.

GVI Forex john 15:00 GMT January 4, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Entry: Target: Stop:

-- ALERT --

November Factory Orders: +0.7%

London SMS 14:57 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

Buy Gold
Entry: There's the Q! Target: Stop:

Anyone have any thoughts? Gold down nearly $40 ! Have left order to buy Silver @ $30. Want to get long gold so welcome your thoughts. FM? You made some great calls (amongst others) on Gold last year....

GVI Forex Jay 14:48 GMT January 4, 2011
Tech Talk

eur/chf high was 1.2683 vs.1.2698 key res cited earlier. Note stocks turning mixed.

to dr unken katt 14:44 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

im bullish on eur/swiss
tp is the fibo 200pips higher i think ,

GVI Forex john 14:31 GMT January 4, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Event @ 15:00 GMT
Factory Orders (Revision to Advance Durable Goods Orders)

Durable good new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery. The advance report is an early estimate of durable goods orders. Two weeks later, more complete and revised data are available in the Factory Orders report. Department of Commerce; BEA.

The report provides information on the strength of demand, from both domestic and foreign sources, for U.S. manufactured durable goods.

NY Fed: Chart (updated with delay)

nyc ws 14:31 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

Besides FM is anyone else bullish euro? I am not bullish fwiw

to dr unken katt 14:07 GMT January 4, 2011
Two left feet...

who let the dogz out?

gold down 26$

GVI Forex Jay 13:52 GMT January 4, 2011
Two left feet...

Joe, as I said yesterday, start of the year is often full of landmines, false moves and whipsaws.

Cambridge Joe 13:25 GMT January 4, 2011
Two left feet...
I seem to have two left feet today....
Took 100 pips yesterday in three trades and today, gave half of it back in two trades....
Oh well.... time to take the dogs out and come back later.

GVI Forex Blog 13:24 GMT January 4, 2011 Reply   

Dollar Strengthens Against Yen on Higher Optimism

GVI Forex Blog 13:11 GMT January 4, 2011 Reply   
12:30 GMT ( January 4 – I noted yesterday that the start of the year market is often littered with landmines and that has been the case today. This has seen currencies such as the aud, jpy and chf sell off while offsets boosted the eur/usd and gbp/usd,

Forex - Start of year Landmines

Lahore FM 13:02 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: Target: Stop:

fresh strength off four hour charts for eurusd will see it to 1.3480 and perhaps marginally higher in this go/

keeping above 1.3370 good for a quick move.

GVI Forex Blog 12:49 GMT January 4, 2011 Reply   
The euro rose against the dollar, the yen and the Swiss franc on Tuesday after upbeat euro zone and U.S. economic data boosted risk appetite, but its gains were hampered by nagging doubts over euro zone bond issuance

FOREX NEWS - Euro rises with risk appetite; funding doubts linger

chios db 12:34 GMT January 4, 2011

the same way the US does nothing about it.

However the truth is that greece is bankrupt yet Greeks are not.
They do not owe the banks mortgages as many have bought on cash with less than 30% loans. not because it was cheap but because banks did not lend any more than that till after 2005.
I could write a whole page on the mismatches with other economies and the peculiarities of teh greek economy and why Greece will pull out of the Euro but this is not the page to do it.

GVI Forex Jay 12:30 GMT January 4, 2011
Tech Talk

12:30 GMT ( January 4 – I noted yesterday that the start of the year market is often littered with landmines and that has been the case today. This has seen currencies such as the aud, jpy and chf sell off while offsets boosted the eur/usd and gbp/usd, leaving the dollar caught in the middle as positions taken into the close of the year unwound. This has seen some significant moves but damage has not been fatal (note 20 day mvas on our FX Chart Points ). As for the eur/usd, it came close but did not test last week’s high at 1.3424 (high 1.3416). To maintain a bid, it would need to hold above 1.3375 = 100 day mva, which acted as resistance until the early European session move above it. Only above 1.35 though would alter a view that this is the top of the current range. With that said, I don’t usually place too much significance to start of the year moves but they cannot be ignored as they can force a technical response.

See below for key cross levels:

110 sets the bias
109.86 = 20 day mva
111.94 and 112.22 are key resistance

1.2698 = Dec 27 high
1.2709 = 20 day mva

Syd 12:20 GMT January 4, 2011
Jeremy Warner predictions for 2011: US comeback, eurozone debts a bigger threat and Vince Cable move
Columnist Jeremy Warner expects the US to return as an engine or growth - at a cost - in 2011, with UK inflation and Europe's woes continuing to unsettle and change for a lame-duck Business Secretary. LINK

Online sales will kill jobs: retailers
In the ads, the retail coalition, which collectively employs more than 76,000 people, warns that failing to act "will see a reduction in hours and shifts for casual and part-time workers, and ultimately cost Australians jobs in retail, manufacturing, logistics and related services".
The advertising spending comes as Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show retail sales fell by 1.1 per cent in October and retailers reported worsening conditions in subsequent months following a hike in official interest rates in November.LINK

GVI Forex Blog 11:56 GMT January 4, 2011 Reply   
The first full trading day with complete global participation tested the resolve of the late Dec currency moves. The CHF and JPY currencies were broadly weaker as rising risk appetite was aiding an unwinding of safe-haven flows. European Market Update: Late Dec safe-haven flows unwind in first full trading day of 2011

GVI Forex john 11:42 GMT January 4, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Earlier, UK mfg PMI solid reading...

Dubai SAS 11:39 GMT January 4, 2011
Entry: 0.9470 Target: Open Stop: Not yet

Entered via limit order ....

GVI Forex john 11:34 GMT January 4, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Earlier Flash EZ HICP (CPI) estimate above 2.0% target at 2.2%.

Syd 11:30 GMT January 4, 2011
IMM Positioning Suggests AUD, JPY Vulnerable-Danske
The latest IMM positioning data covering the period December 21-28th showed JPY demand remaining high and long AUD positions setting new record highs notes Danske Bank. However, the bank says positioning in both is now looking crowded. Add to this divergence between USD/JPY and 2-year interest rate swaps is at its highest since 2009 and in AUD/USD's case elevated commodity prices and the bank says risk reward for entering longs in either is not attractive.

GVI Forex john 11:18 GMT January 4, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Global-View Chart Gallery updated. A wide selection of updated forex, interest rate and equity charts.

Global-View Market Tracker updated. Twice daily survey and technical studies of a broad range of related markets.

Cambridge Joe 11:12 GMT January 4, 2011

Hi SMS. A very good New year to you too Sir !
I'm afraid I'm not much of a 'news' man myself....
I'm just a reactionary !
Looking forward to seeing your posts so I can wipe some of the egg off my face before the missus finds out how well my trades have been going... !

GVI Forex Blog 11:07 GMT January 4, 2011 Reply   
11:00 GMT ( January 4- Forex markets have finally returned to full strength today following the new years break. Markets generally seem to be taking an upbeat view on the global economy for the new year as data seems to be improving in most centers. On the dark side, inflationary pressures might be mounting. and job creation continues to lag

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Back to Full Strength

HK REVDAX 11:06 GMT January 4, 2011

LA//Why does the government do nothing about it? Is it because it is unaware or it has an agenda in mind?

London SMS 11:06 GMT January 4, 2011

Entry: Target: Stop:

Hi Joe, FM, Jay, John, Syd, Frank et al. And a jolly 2011 to you all.
This week's opening play seem to me typical for the first two weeks of a new year namely range playng with a bias against the trends. For my part I've only a small long DlrCHF posi @ 0.9400. I cut my small short SnP but will enter again once it looks toppish. I'm pretty confident DlrChf will test 0.96 and UBS is still apparently calling parity by the month's end.

My first big play is likely to be on cable. A lot of resluts coming out over the coming days on retail sales and I think they'll be abominable. 10 days before xmas I went to Europes largest indoor shopping centre with all the major retailers from the downmarket HMV to Cartier and nearly everyone of them had sales discounts - some upto 80%! And this 10 days before xmas??

Does anyone happen to know when the first results (and from whom) are due out?

NGN CFANFX 10:58 GMT January 4, 2011
Entry: 110.15 Target: 109.45 Stop: OPENED


Cambridge Joe 10:54 GMT January 4, 2011
Still watching carefully.... seeing eurchf wanting a trip south...
My usdchf short ran up and bit me in the stop-loss..... so I'm leaving it alone for now.

Cambridge Joe 10:08 GMT January 4, 2011
EURCHF looks like it will short soon.....

Just keeping an eye on it.
I didn't get to short GBPJPY yet... as it's still hanging up there.
I did short usdchf.... but it's just shambling sideways for now.

LA GH 09:44 GMT January 4, 2011
The country has enough problems without an influx of hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants people smugglers are getting rich on this trade, and the Governments do nothing to stop it , going to have real problems in Europe....

Syd 09:39 GMT January 4, 2011
Greece follows U.S. example by building giant border wall to keep out illegal immigrants
The Greek government has unveiled plans to construct a wall along its 128-mile land border with Turkey in order to tackle the influx of illegal immigrants.
Interior minister Christian Papoutsis said the wall was a necessary measure after more than 100,000 people illegally entered the Mediterranean nation last year

Syd 09:30 GMT January 4, 2011
UK Dec Mfg PMI 58.3 - Sources
GBP/USD adds over one cent to trade at the day's high of 1.5572. Citi says some of these gains may be down to the fact that HSBC needs to buy sterling at or around 1100 GMT Tuesday in order to pay its GBP and HKD dividends due on Tuesday, January 12. Citi says with around 17.6 billion shares in issuance, this transaction could clearly be significant.

Hong Kong 09:27 GMT January 4, 2011
GBP/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader
Entry: Target: Stop:


Last Update At 04 Jan 2011 08:56 GMT

As cable's intra-day cross-inspired rise has
gathered momentum after penetrating Asian morning
high of 1.5506 (now sup), suggesting further vola-
tile trading abv y'day's 1.5434 (NY) low wud conti-
nue but abv 1.5562 needed to extend twd 1.5595/00.

Turn long on dips n only below 1.5395/00 wud con
firm top is in place n risk weakness twd 1.5455.

Range Forecast
1.5530 / 1.5560

R: 1.5562/1.5595/1.5610
S: 1.5506/1.5455/1.5434

Syd 09:19 GMT January 4, 2011
Now Britain is the Neet capital of Western Europe... and even youngsters in Romania are more likely to be in work

tallinn viies 09:17 GMT January 4, 2011
Still talk about Asian CB buying Cable, EURJPY stops above 110.00. Hearing BIS has been buying GBPCHF

BP Shell talks...

Lahore FM 09:01 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

on audcad i closed a third already and lowered stops Revdax!

HK REVDAX 09:00 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

FM//when will u be taking profit on your aus/cad?

Lahore FM 08:57 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

lovely to know Revdax!

Syd 08:51 GMT January 4, 2011
Short-Term Player Buys GBP/USD - Trader
GBP/USD is looking perky Tuesday, adding a quick half a cent to 1.5542. A UK bank trader says a well known short-term player was an active buyer from 1.5485 upwards.

HK REVDAX 08:50 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

FM//have been following your footsteps in trading and made some $...cheers!

Richmond Hills 08:35 GMT January 4, 2011

really, i seldom play GBP/CHF. I agree with you, temp bottom of USD/CHF is seen. Now prefer short CHF

Lahore FM 08:32 GMT January 4, 2011

Hills haven;t seen any news as such for gbp except lot of relief buying on gbpchf supporting gbpusd too!

Lahore FM 08:31 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

cheers friend!

jerusalem kb 08:30 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: Target: Stop:

in coming days of the week usdchf will likely long more seriously from 0.9375/80 area.will try to get on.
will join same boat

Richmond Hills 08:18 GMT January 4, 2011
what happen to GBP? Any news?

Cambridge Joe 08:18 GMT January 4, 2011
Just keeping an eye on GBPJPY.

Should be a short soon, IMHO..... not yet.

Lahore FM 08:07 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: Target: Stop:

in coming days of the week usdchf will likely long more seriously from 0.9375/80 area.will try to get on.

tokyo rana 08:06 GMT January 4, 2011

Entry: 82.25 Target: open Stop: 82.55

sold...happy day,

Hong Kong 08:03 GMT January 4, 2011
EUR/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader
Entry: Target: Stop:


Last Update At 04 Jan 2011 07:37 GMT

Rate : 1.3360

Euro's anticipated retreat fm 1.3378 to 1.3324
suggests further choppy consolidation below y'day's
high of 1.3396 wud continue n as long as said res
holds, another decline twds 1.3305 sup is still
likely but reckon 1.3276/81 wud contain downside.

Sell again on recovery with stop abv 1.3378,
break wud abort n yield re-test of 1.3396.

Range Forecast
1.3330 / 1.3360

R: 1.3378/1.3396/1.3425
S: 1.3324/1.3305/1.3281

Lahore FM 07:35 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: 1.3264 Target: 1.35 Stop: 130 pips


tokyo rana 07:14 GMT January 4, 2011
Entry: 1.0087 Target: 1.03 Stop: 1.005

just a try now at 3rd daily support....happy day

Lahore FM 07:03 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: 81.65 Target: Stop: 81.50 for half

Lahore FM 21:06 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas: Reply
Entry: 81.65 Target: 84.50 Stop: 81.10

placed the orders.
closed half at 82.10 raised.

Lahore FM 07:01 GMT January 4, 2011
Trade Ideas

Entry: 1.0088 Target: Stop: 1.0110 for 2/3rds

Lahore FM 22:24 GMT January 3, 2011
Trade Ideas: Reply
Entry: 1.0088 Target: 0,94 Stop: 1.0180

closed 1/3rd at lowered for rest 2/3rd.

Syd 06:42 GMT January 4, 2011
Moody's: Adopting Wait And See Approach To Australia's Queensland Flood Impact
Marina Ip, a Moody's assistant vice president and analyst, said the obligation to pay for all the damage won't fall on the state alone, with the federal government also helping. As such, Moody's wouldn't be making any changes before the delayed release of the state's budget.

"Because the weather and the climate situation is ongoing, it's hard to quantify how big an impact this will have on the finances. At the moment, we'd like to take a step back and just watch as the situation unfolds," said Ip.

Representatives for Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor's declined to comment.

Syd 06:41 GMT January 4, 2011
Australia's Queensland Floods Could Impact Budget, Bond Issuance
The cost of devastating floods now rampaging through Queensland have forced the Australian state to postpone its planned mid-year budget outlook and could change the state's bond issuance plans for this fiscal year.
The timing of Queensland's forecasted return to an AAA debt rating is also potentially in jeopardy, say analysts, with ratings agency Moody's Investors Service for now only acknowledging the floods could impact the state's budget but adding no ratings change was imminent. "The cost to the state will be huge--both in direct costs such as rebuilding roads and other damaged infrastructure and providing relief payments to families--but also in lost income, while the mining, agriculture and tourism sectors recover," said Queensland Treasurer Andrew Fraser on Tuesday.
Fraser estimates the state's gross state product for the year ending June 30, 2011 will be revised down to below 3% from an estimate of around 3.5% just six months ago, with the state already factoring in A$680 million for natural disaster expenditures.
"These floods are going to hit the bottom line hard," said Fraser. AgForce, a Queensland-based agricultural body, estimates A$1 billion in agricultural flood costs with the Resources Council of Queensland estimating A$1 billion in delayed coal exports from the flood.

Dubai SAS 06:39 GMT January 4, 2011
Sell Kiwi

closed the shorts from 7705 @ 7690 ...

Syd 05:47 GMT January 4, 2011
Australian Speculative Long Positions Nearing Extreme
The Australian dollar was weaker late Tuesday as huge flooding in the resources-rich state of Queensland prompted expectations of a big hit to the country's economic output, given the disruption to coal exports and crop production.
While the full scale of the damage is not yet clear, analysts believe the flood damage will toss out the need for any near-term rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which in turn should pressure the Australian dollar. Credit Agricole strategists said the high level of speculative positioning in the Aussie dollar poses a risk of position squaring or profit taking but support should kick in around US$1.0090. Also hurting sentiment towards the Aussie was the Australian Industry Group-PricewaterhouseCoopers Performance of Manufacturing Index, which fell 1.3 points in December from November to 46.3.
In their outlook for the year, Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategists forecast the local unit to trade US$1.02 in March and US$0.9900 by June, ending the year at US$0.9200.

"The assumption is that the U.S. economy will continue to recover and sooner or later the thinking will start to shift to 'normalising' (U.S.) interest rates--lifting rates back to more 'normal' levels," CBA Economist Craig James wrote. "Once the view starts to shift to U.S. rate hikes, the U.S. dollar should gain support and lift against currencies across the globe," he said, adding strong domestic data will continue to support the local unit.

Syd 05:24 GMT January 4, 2011
China Likely Facing Higher Inflation, Slower Growth: Legislator - Report
China's economy will likely face higher inflation and a tough job market as economic growth slows this year, the 21st Century Business Herald reported Tuesday, citing a Chinese legislator. He Keng, deputy director of the financial and economic affairs committee of the National People's Congress, said in an interview with the newspaper that China's economic growth likely exceeded 10% last year.
He didn't offer a forecast for this year's growth rate.
The country's monetary policy this year should focus on stabilizing the exchange rate and liberalizing interest rates, rather than controlling bank lending, He said. He added the government should launch a real-estate tax as soon as possible to combat property speculation. China introduced various tightening measures last year to curb demand for residential properties to prevent overly high price rises. However, Premier Wen Jiabao said late last month the measures haven't been implemented well enough, and property price movements have yet to meet his expectations.

Syd 04:27 GMT January 4, 2011
Prepare To Wind Up Long Term Gold Bets - Sarasin
Bank Sarasin says investment demand will continue to hold up gold prices in 2011 but that long term gold bets could be undermined by a normalizing interest rate environment. "Investors are advised not to undertake any more long-term gold investments, but to be prepared to wind up their gold positions when real yields start to climb noticeably over a long period of time," it says. However, for this year it says the outlook remains bullish with central bank policies inflaming inflation expectations among some investors. "In addition, the current debate about a potential currency war is also fanning concerns about the value of paper currencies." Spot gold is at $1,416/oz, up $1.40 since Monday's New York close

GVI Forex Blog 04:14 GMT January 4, 2011 Reply   
The US equities started the year on a firm note yesterday.

Morning Briefing : 04-Jan-2011 -0336 GMT

Syd 03:59 GMT January 4, 2011
RETAILERS calling for the Government to scrap the GST threshold on internet shopping have found a surprise ally in Greens leader Bob Brown.
A group of Australian retailers launched an advertising campaign today urging the Government to lower the GST threshold on internet shopping.

Currently, no GST is imposed on goods that are bought from international websites for less than $1000.

Acting Attorney-General Brendan O'Connor indicated today the Government would not change the laws, but Senator Brown said it should reconsider.

"GST on imported goods is a reasonable thing," he said in Hobart today.

"Why should the shop up the street have to charge GST for its customers but the shop selling goods out of Tokyo or California not have to charge GST?"

Syd 03:53 GMT January 4, 2011
Online sales will kill jobs - retailers
AUSTRALIA'S biggest retailers will pour million of dollars into an advertising campaign aimed at pressuring the government to impose GST on all goods bought over the internet.
Taking a leaf from the mining industry, which lobbied effectively against the resource super-profits tax, a coalition of retailers including Myer, David Jones, Harvey Norman and Target, will today begin taking out print ads in a bid to rescue the flagging sector.Sluggish retail sales, heavy discounting in the lead-up to the Christmas sales period and a surging Australian dollar have encouraged consumers to shop over the internet, devastating the retail sector.

Hong Kong 03:40 GMT January 4, 2011
AUD/USD Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
Entry: Target: Stop:


AUD/USD : 1.0137

Last Update At 04 Jan 2011 02:19 GMT

Although A$'s fall to 1.0122 suggests decline fm
Fri's high of 1.0257 to retrace recent rise remains
in progress n weakness to 1.0111/18 cannot be ruled
out, break is needed to confirm a temp. top is made
there n yield retrace. to 1.0087/90.

Abv 1.0179 (prev. sup, now res) wud suggest an
intra-day low has been formed, 1.0195/00.

Range Forecast
1.0120 / 1.0150

R: 1.0179/1.0213/1.0257
S: 1.0118/1.0087/1.0067

Mtl JP 03:25 GMT January 4, 2011
The Land of Three Currencies

REVDAX - only inflation of money supply surpassing what an economy can comfortably absorb manifests itself in price-inflation, simple as that, period. it is manifestation of the failure of powers that be bla-bla policies. simple as that, period.
1) It is up to each individual to protect themselves from the slogans of politicians dribbling "I have a solution for you".

2) It is up to each individual to profit from the slogans of politicians dribbling "I have a solution for you".

HK REVDAX 02:21 GMT January 4, 2011
The Land of Three Currencies

JP//The old model of economic development relying on export and government spending has finally created inflation of a rather uncomfortable rate. It inflation were merely in gold or whatever precious metals, it would have been easily handled. But when inflation gets into life essentials such as food, housing, tranportation and clothings, there is hardly any ground for rejoicing. The government is subsidizing transportation, clothing is not a problem, government housing in China is inadequate, and food is where it really hurts...

Well, people become healthier being more vegetarians than meat eaters...

Mtl JP 02:08 GMT January 4, 2011
The Land of Three Currencies

here is an inflation headline - and the sound of rushing hoofs - I simply LOVE:

according to bbrg from Dec 28: “Beijing will raise the minimum wage by 20.8% in 2011... increase to 1,160 yuan ($175) a month… take effect on Jan. 1… The city will also raise pension and unemployment benefits…”

Syd 01:51 GMT January 4, 2011
The Land of Three Currencies
. As with China, some of the price increases (particularly for food) have been caused by temporary shortages due to poor harvests. Some of it could also be attributed to productivity increases and a secular rise in household purchasing power, typical in a growing economy. But headline inflation wouldn't be increasing at the rate it is without loose monetary policy. Nor would households be saving and transacting in gold and U.S. dollars if they weren't afraid of an increasingly debased dong. Vietnam is again becoming a land of three currencies, as it was in the 1980s when inflation at one point hit nearly 500%.LINK

Syd 01:45 GMT January 4, 2011
Richland QC Mailman hi, a lot of data out this week , housing retail sales which wont be doing it any favours so your wish may be granted , could see further falsl if other factors come into play .

Richland QC Mailman 01:39 GMT January 4, 2011
AUD/USD Looks Vulnerable To Profit-Taking - CA

Yes Syd. I think it is already hyper-extended and needs some correction first before it resumes overall uptrend. Opened up some short possies already on the break of 1.0180 after several indicators have pointed to near-term weakness. Like to see the pair return to 1.0000.

Syd 01:32 GMT January 4, 2011
AUD/USD Looks Vulnerable To Profit-Taking - CA
AUD/USD looks vulnerable to profit-taking or position squaring given a high level of speculative positioning on the pair, says Credit Agricole Strategist Mitul Kotecha. He pegs support at 1.0090; the pair was last at 1.0147 from 1.0169 earlier in the day. "Despite the generally positive tone to risk trades, the Aussie dollar has softened in the wake of growing worries about the damage from the flooding in Queensland as well as a softening in (Australian) manufacturing confidence in December," he adds.

Syd 01:25 GMT January 4, 2011
US coal miners rally, eye exports on Australia floods
NEW YORK/HOUSTON, Jan 3 (Reuters) - U.S. coal miner shares rallied on Monday as massive floods in Australia disrupted a big chunk of the world's metallurgical coal supply, driving up prices and causing Asian importers to hunt for alternatives.

Syd 01:11 GMT January 4, 2011
DJ Irish Insolvenices +8% In 2010; Over 30% In Construction
The number of Irish insolvencies rose 8% on the year in 2010, with over 30% made up by construction firms, a survey by showed Tuesday.
Some high profile businesses in the construction sector went out of business last year, including Pierse Group and related companies and well-known builders Michael McNamara & Co., the survey added. Irish unemployment hovers around 13.2%, up from around 4.4% during the Celtic Tiger economic boom of the 1990s, and economists see unemployment rising further in 2011 despite tough austerity measures.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard On The Banking Rescue In Vietnam That Will Trigger The 2011-2012 Asian Hard Landing

Here's The Real Reason For Skype's China Headaches

Impose GST on goods bought over the internet: retailers
From today, major retailers including Myer, David Jones, Harvey Norman and Target will take out the print advertisements
The ads warn that a failure to act "will see a reduction in hours and shifts for casual and part-time workers, and ultimately cost Australians jobs in retail, manufacturing, logistics and related services".
The coalition of retailers is spending about $200,000 on print advertising over the next two weeks, The Australian reports, but is considering a television campaign that would push the budget into the millions.


Hong Kong 00:37 GMT January 4, 2011
Daily FX Market Outlook by AceTrader-4-1-2011
Market Review - 03/01/2011 22:07 GMT

The greenback rises versus yen due to robust US economic data and strength in stocks

The greenback initially extended last week's selloff to 80.93 against the Japanese yen in Asian morning before recovery in part due to the renewed geopolitical tensions between S. Korea and N. Korea, however, the pair rebounded and ratcheted higher in Europe and NY sessions on cross unwinding in yen together with intra-day rise in U.S. Treasury yields ( benchmark 10-year yield climbed back above 3.40%). Strength in global stocks also boosted risk appetite and the pair eventually rose to 81.75 in late NY trade. DJI rose by 0.81% and ended up at 11670.75. CAC 40 rose by 2.53% while DAX closed up by 1.09%.

The dollar was also supported as US construction spending in November came in at 0.4%, stronger than the forecast of 0.2% while ISM manufacturing index rose to 57.0 in December from 56.6 in November.

The single currency edged lower in Asia in part due to the soft official Chinese PMI (53.9 in December versus 55.2 in November) released over the weekend together with worries that European credit markets could be hit by a second credit crisis within months as suggested by a report in the Telegraph newspaper on Sunday. Euro fell to as low as 1.3250 in European morning, however, price recovered after the release of robust German and EU economic data and euro later rose to 1.3396 in NY session before easing.

On economic front, German PMI for manufacturing in December actual came in at 60.7, which was the fastest rate in over 14 years. EU Manufacturing PMI came in at 57.1, stronger than the forecast of 56.8.

Euro was supported as a Bloomberg news report quoted that Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang said China would continue buying Spanish debts even amid a surge in the European nation's borrowing costs.

Despite last Friday's rally from 1.5425 to 1.5680 in thin market conditions on the last trading day of 2010, the British pound remained under pressure throughout Monday. Cable edged lower from 1.5610 and eventually fell to as low as 1.5434 before staging a minor recovery in NY afternoon.

The market would pay attention to the release of US nonfarm payroll and unemployment data on Friday. Economists predicted a gain of 140,000 jobs from a rise of 39,000 at the previous reading.

Economic indicators to be released on Tuesday include:

Germany unemployment rate, U.K. Manufacturing PMI, Mortgage Approval, EU CPI estimate, US Factory order and FOMC meeting minutes (Market holiday in New Zealand ).

Syd 00:03 GMT January 4, 2011
Industry Sources Expect China Yuan To Appreciate Around 5% In 2011 - Report
China's yuan is expected to appreciate around 5% against the U.S. dollar this year, the state-run China Securities Journal reported Tuesday, citing unnamed industry sources.
The forecast came after the yuan rose to a fresh high against the dollar in the last trading day of 2010. As of late Friday, the yuan has appreciated 3.6% since June 19, when China pledged to increase the yuan's trading flexibility and effectively ended a two-year-long peg to the dollar. For full year 2010, the yuan was 3.5% higher against the dollar.

Australian manufacturing contracted in December for a fourth month as higher borrowing costs curbed consumer spending and the nation’s currency surged to a record, eroding export earnings. The performance of manufacturing index fell to 46.3 from 47.6 in November, the Australian Industry Group and PricewaterhouseCoopers said in a survey released in Canberra today. A number below 50 indicates contraction.


Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
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Tue 28 May 2019
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Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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