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Forex Forum Archive for 01/16/2011

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Mtl JP 23:46 GMT January 16, 2011
What's the buzz?

john 22:27 the BUZZ... is that last time Hu came to the US he was unceremoniously insulted. Sofar things do not look as if much has changed:

“China said it would ‘welcome’ a positive statement from the U.S. on the stability of Chinese- held dollar assets during next week’s summit in Washington between President Hu Jintao and President Barack Obama. ‘If the U.S. makes a positive statement on this issue we surely will welcome that,’ Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai said… ‘China follows very closely the economic health of the United States and vice versa.’” - January 12, Bloomberg

Clinton on China: 'Distrust lingers on both sides' -">Jan 14 - msnbc

Jan 14, 2011BEIJING (Dow Jones)--Keeping US$600 billion-US$800 billion worth of foreign-exchange reserves would be enough for China..
i.e. ...psst.. pass some of the bag along to someoene else...

Chinese President's U.S. visit vital to ties: ambassador - 2011-01-16, xinhuanet
an ambassador.. says... haha

U.S. and China economic relationship benefits both: Geithner - January 17, tehran times
I am reviewing pages of Japanese historical visit to Wall Street and reminding everyone who needed to know what could happen if... sentiment towards holding bags of US paper changed

Syd 23:36 GMT January 16, 2011
Victorian town braces for 'one-in-200-year' flood threat

A student audience at Peking University laughed in the face of Timothy Geithner, US Treasury secretary, two years ago when he insisted that China’s holdings of US Treasury bonds were “very safe”.

Syd 23:06 GMT January 16, 2011
Spain's PM Warns Regional Governments On Deficits - Report
Spain's prime minister, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, warned the nation's regional governments that they must pull back on public spending and debt creation while Spain's government deals with its sovereign debt issues, The Financial Times reports on its website Sunday. The prime minister said the central government would act to strictly enforce deficit limits, adding that the central government is ultimately responsible for the debt

Cambridge Joe 22:52 GMT January 16, 2011
Market hours...

dil// thanks.
just couldn't understand why immediate current prices should be so different......
Thanks and good night !

Cambridge Joe 22:49 GMT January 16, 2011
rest now...
A few hours sleep and back later.

Israel dil 22:48 GMT January 16, 2011
Market hours...

joe, I think the mid-price is the same. But due to spread trade taking prices come different out.

Nth Qld CMD 22:47 GMT January 16, 2011
The Queensland floods will have a negative impact on mortgage borrowers and could impact mortgage-ba
The Queensland floods will have a negative impact on mortgage borrowers and could impact mortgage-backed transactions in the country, Fitch Ratings said Monday.

Beginning in December, devastating floods have swept through the agricultural and coal-mining hub of Australia's northeastern most state. The floods have so far killed more than 25 people and could shave as much as 1% of the country's economic growth in the six months to March 31, say economists.

Fitch said the resulting property damage may affect borrowers' ability to pay, and may result in lower recovery rates for damaged properties, with mortgage borrowers in Queensland experiencing an affordability shock due to an increase in expenses and loss of income.

"Borrowers who have been directly or indirectly affected by the flooding will likely experience some financial distress in terms of property damage, increased living expenses, and potential loss of income," said James Zanesi, associate director with Fitch.

"Queensland's floods might also temporarily reduce available income in selected mortgage-backed transactions depending on their exposure to the affected areas," added Zanesi.

Any hit to mortgage affordability could have a broader impact in Australia, especially for banks. The country's four largest banks hold nearly 85% of all mortgages in the country on their books, with the about 90% of Australians holding variable mortgage loans.

The banks have already said they will suspend payment for up to three months in selected households and increased credit availability. Special government disaster flood assistance grants might also help, said Fitch.

The ratings agency added it is too early to quantify the impact the flooding will have on Australian mortgage-backed transactions, but noted an increase in losses is possible as lenders' mortgage insurance doesn't cover flood risk.

Australia has the fourth-largest securitization market in the world, with roughly 20 billion Australian dollars (US$19.8 billion) of residential mortgage-backed security transactions pricing in 2010.

Cambridge Joe 22:41 GMT January 16, 2011
Market hours...

Katt// it ain't the spread.
It is current price difference between both platforms.
I use MT4 for charts and TS2 for trade.
I'm talking... displayed current mkt price..

to dr unken katt 22:35 GMT January 16, 2011
Market hours...

check the spread

Cambridge Joe 22:29 GMT January 16, 2011
Market hours...

V strange... don't understand .... now have 7 pips price difference between MT4 and TS2... on gbpjpy and 5 pips diff on gbpusd.....

Any ideas..?

Syd 22:29 GMT January 16, 2011
German coalition split on increasing EU's bail-out fund
German coalition split on increasing EU's bail-out fund
Important members of Chancellor Angela Merkel's coalition in Germany are resisting plans for an increase in the EU's bail-out fund to protect Spain from contagion, complicating a crucial meeting of EU finance ministers on Monday.
Guido Westerwelle, the vice-Chancellor and head of the FDP Free Democrats, said there was no justification for last week's call by Brussels for an urgent boost in the size and powers of the €440bn (£371bn) fund.
AUD Should Remain Under Pressure - ANZ
The AUD should feel pressure on all crosses in the coming week, say ANZ strategists. "AUD is coming under broad based pressure on crosses against the European and other commodity currency pairs. We expect that this will continue until there is more certainty about the total cost of the floods." AUD/USD is at 0.9911; ANZ says it's caught in a 0.9800-1.0000 range.

Fitch Ratings-Sydney-16 January 2011: Fitch Ratings has commented today that the flooding that is currently affecting the South East corner of Queensland is expected to have a negative impact on mortgage borrowers.
In the event of a borrower defaulting due to property damage, recoveries might be revised downwards from Fitch's assumptions at the time of initial analysis. Not all properties have specific flood insurance in place, and lender's mortgage insurance does not cover for flood damage. Moreover, the market value for properties located in the flooded areas might now be permanently adjusted downwards due to future flooding risk.

EUR/USD Looks Overbought, Due To Correct - CBA
EUR/USD looks overbought and should correct toward 1.3000 in coming weeks as the market realizes chances of the ECB tightening this year are overdone, says CBA FX strategist. Says the bigger risk is that the Fed moves to tighten first. "Expectations for an ECB rate hike this year are too optimistic." EUR/USD is weakening early; last at 1.3384. Strategist says Chinese President Hu's comments on currencies should be read in the context that he is visiting U.S. President Obama, and doesn't expect China to shift its outlook in a hurry. The main focus for FX this week is Chinese data and European debt auctions.

Hedge funds bet China is a bubble close to bursting
The world is looking to China as a springboard out of recession - but some hedge funds are betting the country's credit and growth levels cannot be sustained.

Illusions that imperil the future of China and the West
Mr Li Keqiang, China’s vice-premier, expected to take over as premier in 2012, has now returned home after an apparently successful visit here which included signing some large trade agreements. The UK Government is pleased with itself. Let us hope that its optimism about our trade relations with China proves justified. But I am sceptical.
Misconception number five is that we in the West run a deficit simply because China produces plenty of what we want to buy. We want to buy so much from them largely because their stuff is cheap. Yet foreign prices can only be translated into our money via the exchange rate. As far as we are concerned, a 20pc increase in the renminbi would be exactly equivalent to a 20pc rise in Chinese prices. In short, exchange rates really matter. Fortunately, we in Britain

GVI Forex john 22:27 GMT January 16, 2011

Entry: Target: Stop:

HIGHLIGHTS: No Major Data U.S. Holiday

  • Key German Sentiment data due over the week.

  • China policy tightening on Friday a weight on the commodity exporting nations tightens reserve requirement.

  • Focus to start this week on whether EUR short-covering demand has run its course.

  • Mixed ECB readings to tighten in 2H11? Some saying yes. We wonder.

Cambridge Joe 22:07 GMT January 16, 2011
Market hours...

TS2 now functional
MT4 still comatose !

Cambridge Joe 22:05 GMT January 16, 2011
Market hours...

GBPJPY back to just 3194 @ +14 now

Cambridge Joe 22:00 GMT January 16, 2011
Market hours...

Katt// ok... was thinking to bring sl to entry like I ususally do...
GBPJPY down 31 from 3143 entry.

to dr unken katt 21:52 GMT January 16, 2011
Market hours...

good werk

if it breaks the fridays lows dats a good sign , keep the stops

Syd 21:52 GMT January 16, 2011
AUD/USD Vulnerable To A Dip To 0.9540 - BNP
AUD/USD looks vulnerable to a dip toward 0.9540, say BNP Paribas FX strategists. BNP says China tightening Friday will weigh on AUD. "The fact that AUD is failing to gain support from CNY strength and is reacting negatively to other tightening measures indicates sentiment is now turning against the AUD." AUD/USD last 0.9911.

Latest Commitment AUD/USD -The large spec remains better than a 5 to 1 long even after reducing his net long by over 9,000 contracts. Small specs are also an unbalanced long and made modest addition to their position. The weekly market action was not helpful to the spec longs, and may have caused the small selling.

CAIRO (AFP)--Egypt's Foreign Minister, Ahmed Abul Gheit, on Sunday warned the West to stay out of Arab affairs, days after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton urged Arab leaders to work with their peoples to bring reforms.
Abul Gheit said Cairo would call on Arab nations attending an economic summit in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh on Wednesday to issue a statement concerning "attempts by some Western and European nations to interfere in Egyptian and Arab affairs."

Lahore FM 21:48 GMT January 16, 2011
-- Trade Ideas --

and yes boc too.although no policy change is expected but the announement can precipitate a move.

Lahore FM 21:45 GMT January 16, 2011
-- Trade Ideas --

Caba,thanx for pointing that out.yes i meant 0.9860 possible before upmove back towards 1.0000 and that some slight possibility of a break below 0.9860 which would jeopardise upside.

things to watch oil,eurusd and eurcad.

philadelphia caba 21:41 GMT January 16, 2011
-- Trade Ideas --

did you mean 9860?

GVI Forex Blog 21:36 GMT January 16, 2011 Reply   
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: AUD remains in a downtrend since 3 Jan, but immediate direction will be dictated by breaks of either 0.9800 or 1.0020. NZD's corrective rally looks complete and we expect a break below 0.7600 today.

Forex - Morning Report (Westpac)

Syd 21:24 GMT January 16, 2011
Australian Dollar Carves Head-And-Shoulders Top in 2011
Australian Dollar Carves Head-And-Shoulders Top in 2011
The small rebound in the Australian dollar was certainly short-lived as the exchange rate fell back below parity on Friday, and the high-yielding currency may continue to depreciate over the following week as the outlook for global growth deteriorates. At the same time, the AUD/USD appears to be carving out a head-and-shoulders top in 2011, and there exchange rate may push sharply lower over the near-term as it looks to complete the right shoulder around 1.0000.

After topping out at a record-high of 1.0256 in December, the AUD/USD looks poised to weaken further as the recent rebound in the exchange rate fails to push the pair back above the 20-Day SMA at 1.0024. As a result, we expect the head-and-shoulders pattern to pan out over the near-term, and the exchange rate may fall back towards the 100-Day SMA at 0.9766 as it searches for support. As the economic docket for the isle-nation remains bare until the last days of January, risk trends are likely to dictate price action going forward, but the recent rebound in the greenback may gather pace over the following week as the recovery in the world’s largest economy gradually gathers pace. In turn, I will look to maintain my short AUD/USD position going into the following week, and the pair may continue to retrace the advance from the previous year as the uncertainties surrounding the global economy bears down on market sentiment. – David Song, Currency Analyst

Cambridge Joe 21:17 GMT January 16, 2011
Market hours...
Friday, after some beer, I took a couple of positions...
Short GBPUSD & short GBPJPY.

So far ... so good, either the MKT will gap up or gap down..

I have got gap down on GBPJPY 25 pips....
GBPUSD looks like it may follow.

Yet... MT4 has no functionality at this time and TS2 will not let me access the account as... out of hours...

Yet , it shows the profit...


Syd 20:43 GMT January 16, 2011
Bad debts tipped to rise in aftermath of Queensland floods
BAD debts are likely to jump in Queensland as a consequence of floods that engulfed the state, say analysts.
THOUSANDS of businesses have shut their doors across Queensland as losses from the worst floods in 100 years rise as fast as the state's swollen rivers.
Last night it was estimated that 3500 businesses were either closed or planning to shut their doors.
•Victorian towns cut off by rising floods

Trichet: Sovereign Debt Crisis Ongoing, Global Phenomenon
Trichet:Euro Zone Financial Stability Threatened By Some Sovereigns

China Bureau Economist: US Issuing Money Causing Commodity Price Inflation In China
China Bureau Economist: Large Yuan Appreciation Would Hurt Exports, Cause Unemployment

(Reuters) - China should not worry about being too heavily invested in the dollar and U.S. government debt, because its dependence is not unique in a world with few alternatives, a senior official at China's sovereign fund said.

Q&A With Hu Jintao .
The Wall Street Journal submitted a series of questions for Chinese President Hu Jintao ahead of his visit to the U.S. from Jan. 18 to 21. The Washington Post also submitted questions. China's Foreign Ministry supplied responses from Mr. Hu to seven questions, as follows:LINK

GVI Forex john 20:10 GMT January 16, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Westpac NZ Daily

AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours:

remains in a downtrend since 3 Jan, but immediate direction will be dictated by breaks of either 0.9800 or 1.0020.

NZD's corrective rally looks complete and we expect a break below 0.7600 today.

Lahore FM 20:06 GMT January 16, 2011
-- Trade Ideas --

Entry: Target: Stop:

usdcad can test lower to 0.9960 before attempting higher again.some possibility of a break below 0.9960 also there.

GVI Forex john 19:16 GMT January 16, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Entry: Target: Stop:

Trading Resources...

GVI Forex john 18:51 GMT January 16, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Entry: Target: Stop:

Res 3	1.3585	83.88	0.9766	1.5967	1.0039	1.0104	0.7804
Res 2	1.3521	83.47	0.9727	1.5927	1.0008	1.0049	0.7765
Res 1	1.3444	83.22	0.9686	1.5895	0.9949	0.9968	0.7716

Pivot	1.3380	82.81	0.9647	1.5855	0.9918	0.9913	0.7677

Sup 1	1.3303	82.56	0.9606	1.5823	0.9859	0.9832	0.7628
Sup 2	1.3239	82.15	0.9567	1.5783	0.9828	0.9777	0.7589
Sup 3	1.3162	81.90	0.9526	1.5751	0.9769	0.9696	0.7540

GVI Forex john 18:49 GMT January 16, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Entry: Target: Stop:

Last	1.3368	82.96	0.9646	1.5862	0.9891	0.9888	0.7668
High	1.3456	83.07	0.9687	1.5888	0.9976	0.9993	0.7725
Low	1.3315	82.41	0.9607	1.5816	0.9886	0.9857	0.7637
Change	0.0019	0.18	0.0000	0.0033	-0.0006	-0.0069	-0.0016

5 day	1.3155	82.93	0.9674	1.5729	0.9897	0.9925	0.7642
10 day	1.3151	82.80	0.9617	1.5624	0.9924	0.9973	0.7637
20 day	1.3167	82.61	0.9556	1.5534	0.9986	1.0031	0.7605
50 day	1.3296	83.10	0.9728	1.5692	1.0067	0.9917	0.7595
100 day	1.3415	82.99	0.9787	1.5723	1.0157	0.9774	0.7515
200 day	1.3074	86.29	1.0321	1.5427	1.0255	0.9299	0.7286

BIAS	Down	Up	Up	Up	Down	Down	Up

to dr unken katt 18:26 GMT January 16, 2011
Expect huge volatility in commodities, currency and indexes..


dc CB 17:01 GMT January 16, 2011
Expect huge volatility in commodities, currency and indexes..

Can Europe Be Saved?

THERE’S SOMETHING peculiarly apt about the fact that the current European crisis began in Greece. For Europe’s woes have all the aspects of a classical Greek tragedy, in which a man of noble character is undone by the fatal flaw of hubris.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:12 GMT January 16, 2011
AUD/USD : Critical Point 0.9926
Entry: Target: Stop:

AUD/USD : Critical Point 0.9926

The market is under pressure when it is below the weekly cycle pivot center at 0.9926. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the weekly cycle pivot center at 0.9766. The monthly cycle congested area suggested that the market has a tendency to trade within 0.9068 - 0.9682.

AUD/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Hong Kong Qindex 13:01 GMT January 16, 2011
USD/CAD : Critical Point 0.9838
USD/CAD : Critical Point 0.9838

The market is under pressure when it is trading below the weekly cycle pivot center at 0.9903. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 0.9838 as shown in the monthly cycle charts.

USD/CAD : Monthly Cycle Charts

mumbai 12:05 GMT January 16, 2011
Expect huge volatility in commodities, currency and indexes..
Below is the excerpt from an interesting post on sunday from the website of Mahendra Sharma

"Expect huge volatility in commodities, currency and indexes. After few years again time has come to make big killing in market, so get ready to make money. This week newsletter has provided clear indications about what to do. Many people request to put few updates on website for free, I would like to say something here that investors take risk trading markets and for some valuable insight information’s they don’t want to spend small money (I don’t understand their philosophy of investment). Subscription cost is nothing against risk you take in markets.

This week we mentioned in our weekly newsletter that metals would remain positive for this week and higher side it may see $1388 and silver $30.08. In medium term we see metals crashing down big so starts taking selling gold/silver/base metals from……… also you should build put options in gold/silver of March 2011 from…..

This week higher side ($89.89) oil target is almost achieved, if it trade more than five above $89.89 the next target is $92.38, Natural gas is great buy around $4.33 to $4.28. One should start building position from late Thursday or Friday.

Treasury bond will trade positive so acquire position in bond.

Dollar index will remain sideways, Australian, Swiss Franc and Yen will trade weaker against USD and British Pound."

Also told on grains, soft commodities, energy stocks....

Hong Kong Qindex 10:14 GMT January 16, 2011
GBP/USD : Critical Point 1.5920
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/USD : Critical Point 1.5920

As shown in the monthly cycle charts the current expected trading range is 1.5566 - 1.6273. The market momentum is strong when it is able to trade above the monthly cycle pivot center at 1.5920. The neutral range is 1.5476 - 1.5888. A projected resistant barrier is expected at 1.5959 // 1.5977.

GBP/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Syd 10:11 GMT January 16, 2011
Hedge funds bet China is a bubble close to bursting
Mark Hart of Corriente Advisors has started a fund based on the belief that China is an 'enormous tail-risk'.

Hedge funds bet China is a bubble close to bursting
The world is looking to China as a springboard out of recession - but some hedge funds are betting the country's credit and growth levels cannot be sustained.
For his first-ever speech as Britain’s new Minister of Trade & Industry last week, Lord Green faced a formidable audience of 400 Chinese and British business delegates.

The former chairman of HSBC declared that China’s economic growth figures over the past five years represented an “extraordinary historic event”.

Despite the vast population, the property is generally out of the price range for most. House prices are around 22 times disposable income in Beijing. The IMF has said that house prices in eastern cities have become “increasingly disconnected from the fundamentals” but so far has said there is no nationwide bubble.

Professor Victor Shih of Northwestern University, Illinois, estimates that Chinese banks have lent $1.7 trillion (£1.1 trillion) to local state entities, many of which are not commercially viable and have used inflated land values as collateral.

Hong Kong Qindex 09:53 GMT January 16, 2011
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3865
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3865

The current expected trading trading range from the monthly cycle charts is 1.3076 - 1.3865. As shown in the monthly cycle frequency chart the energy gap is big between 1.3076 and 1.3865. Greater energy is required to overcome the projected resistant point at 1.3865. Anyway the market momentum is strong when it is above the weekly cycle pivot center at 1.3428. The neutral range is 1.2875 - 1.3456. A projected barrier is located at 1.3557 // 1.3580.

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Geneva 09:16 GMT January 16, 2011
$300B fund manager: China has little choice but to buy US$
January 15, 2011 7:15 AM EST

China should not worry about being too heavily invested in the dollar and U.S. government debt, because its dependence is not unique in a world with few alternatives, a senior official at China's sovereign fund said. Wang Jianxi, the chief risk officer at China Investment Corporation (CIC) [CIC.UL] which manages $300 billion, said on Saturday the market for U.S. Treasuries is the world's most liquid and the U.S. government is a credible borrower. He said these qualities render dollar-denominated assets relatively stable and that there are few investment alternatives in the world with similar benefits. "We don't have to complain about the risk of buying U.S. dollars and Treasuries and the need to invest in other countries," Wang told an investment forum, adding that the views were his own. "Investing in other countries does not necessarily make our investment less risky," he said. China is the world's biggest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, with a third of its $2.85 trillion in foreign exchange reserves invested in U.S. government debt.
But Wang argued that China is not the only country reliant on the dollar, listing sovereign wealth funds in Abu Dhabi, Norway and Singapore as other big buyers of dollar-denominated assets. His remarks come as China President Hu Jintao gets ready for a visit to Washington next week, when the two world powers will try to find common ground in bilateral ties, which are complicated by a sensitive creditor-debtor relationship. In a bid to limit China's vulnerability to a sharply weaker dollar, senior Chinese officials have campaigned for years for a an alternative reserve currency. Wang said the attention China drew last year for buying Japanese and South Korean sovereign debt underscored the difficulties in investing in other smaller government debt markets. It is also practical for China to invest the bulk of its reserves in the U.S. currency because global trade in commodities, energy and metals are settled in dollars, he said. "There is little choice but to invest a large portion of foreign reserves in U.S. dollars and Treasuries," Wang said.

Syd 05:49 GMT January 16, 2011
China Think Tank Sees Larger Yuan Appreciation This Year
China won't let the yuan appreciate too much this year, but the rise in the yuan's value will be larger than last year, a prominent government think tank said Saturday.
China PBOC Adviser Sees More Hikes In Reserve Requirement Ratio--Report
China has the scope to raise banks' reserve requirement ratio further, the state-run China Securities Journal reported Saturday, citing central-bank adviser Xia Bin.
If China's inflation rate stays overly high, the government should raise interest rates to turn real interest rates positive, the report quoted Xia as saying. Xia expects China's inflation rate to be around 4% this year, the report added

Fitch warned further downgrades were possible
Greece said the fresh downgrade by Fitch, despite major economic reforms, proved Europe ought to keep a closer eye on the rating agencies.
If Greece cannot access the debt markets at affordable rates, the EU and IMF will needed to make a clear commitment to increase funding for Athens, it said.

Fresh floods hit southern Australia

to dr unken katt 01:45 GMT January 16, 2011

weekly euro map looks interesting
last 2 candles are identical in lengt
they r in the fibo range + the diagonal markes with blue circles , logically the price shouldd fall down to the area marked as X


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