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Forex Forum Archive for 01/23/2011

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Lahore FM 23:50 GMT January 23, 2011
-- Trade Ideas --

JP is usdcad breaks once more under 0.9880 then cadjpy can turn long quite seriously.

Mtl JP 23:15 GMT January 23, 2011
-- Trade Ideas --

FM 23:10 - including cadyen ?
that would clash with my idea as I have a buy on dips bias
I guess we have a trade

Syd 23:14 GMT January 23, 2011
Sell AUD On Any Rebound To Parity - BNP
Dealers should cash in their positions on the AUD/USD on any recovery towards 1.000, say BNP Paribas FX strategists. "The AUD remains vulnerable to a further bout of risk aversion, liquidity withdrawal and position unwinding. We look to take advantage of a rebound towards parity to put on a tactical short position." BNP

Lahore FM 23:10 GMT January 23, 2011
-- Trade Ideas --

three weak links that will likely dent any run on usd are usdchf usdcad and usdjpy for this week

cad selling on crosses still not a bad idea.

eurjpy long gbpjpy long also can make a stack of pips.

Syd 23:09 GMT January 23, 2011
Westpac chief talks of waiving mortgages
The big banks have already pledged to freeze mortgage repayments for up to three months. For some businesses the freeze will be for six months.
Many lenders are also offering emergency increases in credit card limits and early term deposit withdrawals .

Mtl JP 23:01 GMT January 23, 2011
Bank of Canada chief warns

dil 20:04 - Letters, emails show Carney blasted by citizens ctv Jan 22

here is 12 minutes worth of Carney's time this week-end: Carney calls for shift toward developing markets ctv jan 23
joe sixpacks idiots screaming and whinning about higher interest rates. Some of the insanity of average 350K house, an SUV and a 4x4 pickup and flying around on highways at 120+km/hr (the more gasmileage inefficient speeds) makes me wonder what the people are thinking. Low interest rates suck life money out of prudent savers like me; I can hardly wait for the "more normal level" of interest rates. Qtn Carney dint answer is what implies by that. Currently $100,000 will yield, before taxes between 1500 and 3000 bux. Certainly not enough to live on, really frugal one might on a $1,000,000 at 3%... these rate sneed to go to 7-10, preferably more (admittedly not tomorrrow, but the sooner the better)

in reference to "Carney said it wasn't time to jump ship on the United States, refusing to describe Canada's largest trading partner as a declining world power" , there is NO question in my mind that Canada can not expect to ride on any initial US pickup when it comes. However with respect to "There are other very good emerging markets where we are under-exposed and we need to build our game there. It is starting, but we really, really do need to accelerate it." I am NOT eager to, at this stage, jump on this bandwaggon especially seeing as almost all BRICKS are raising rates and trying to cool down. Prefer to let CHINA and its BRICKS clingons crash some first is my sence.

GVI Forex Blog 22:04 GMT January 23, 2011 Reply   
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: We continue to see AUD underperforming versus a newly invigorated EUR. Weekend comments from Trichet suggest this move should continue. CPI data due Tuesday will be less important than usual given the data predates the Queensland flood disaster. Softer NZ data last week should see the NZD do the same.

Forex - Morning Report

GVI Forex john 21:54 GMT January 23, 2011


Syd 21:52 GMT January 23, 2011
GVI Forex john 21:49 with Banks offering to forego mortgage repayments , seriously cant see the RBA then raising rate

GVI Forex john 21:49 GMT January 23, 2011
What's the buzz?

- I saw somewhere that there was a story in The Australian that the RBA is likely to raise rates again in March.

Is this the proper time with the lasting effects of the flooding yet to be determined? Furthermore politically, and we all know that central banks are not political, this would be an odd move, imho.

GVI Forex john 21:42 GMT January 23, 2011

Entry: Target: Stop:

What's the Buzz? 24 Jan 11 Far East-Europe 

Calendar: AU- PPI, EZ- Flash Manufacturing/Service PMIs, New Industrial Orders

  • It has been a EUR market with the up vs. USD and its crosses. This starts a new week .

  • Waiting now to see flash EZ PMIs confirm recent strong German ZEW and Ifo surveys. Core Europe continues to outperform.

  • Inflation pressures starting to surface here and there. Lots of focus on $100 crude? . 

  • Chinese additional tightening speculation bad for commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, NZD).

  • No major U.S./Canadian. data slated for Monday.


Syd 21:32 GMT January 23, 2011
Spanish Savings Banks Object To Govt Overhaul Plans -Report
Spain's savings banks are objecting to government overhaul plans that would force them to become listed financial institutions and allow direct government cash injections, Spanish leading daily El Pais reports Saturday, citing members of the country's Savings Bank Confederation.

Syd 20:56 GMT January 23, 2011
Iran Maintains Right To Enrich Uranium - Negotiator
ISTANBUL (AFP)--Iran maintains the right to enrich uranium, its chief negotiator Said Jalili said Saturday, in defiance of world powers after talks on its controversial nuclear program ended in failure.

Syd 20:17 GMT January 23, 2011
China Could Act On Currency This Year -Kissinger

China's gross domestic product is expected to grow 9.8% and the consumer price index is likely to increase around 3.7% this year, China National Radio reported Sunday, citing a government think tank.

Treasurer Swan warns of floods' king-hit to economy
JULIA Gillard will meet senior corporate leaders in Brisbane today to co-ordinate business efforts to repair Queensland's flood-ravaged economy as Wayne Swan warned that the economic impact of the disaster would be "enormous".

GVI Forex john 20:13 GMT January 23, 2011
nearing US elections year

Westpac NZ Daily

AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours:

We continue to see AUD underperforming versus a newly invigorated EUR. Weekend comments from Trichet suggest this move should continue. CPI data due Tuesday will be less important than usual given the data predates the Queensland flood disaster.

Softer NZ data last week should see the NZD do the same.

Israel dil 20:04 GMT January 23, 2011
Bank of Canada chief warns

Europe's problems severe, but expects resolution

"Carney said the central bank was keep a close eye on Europe's sovereign debt problems, warning it posed a risk to Canada."

Israel dil 19:52 GMT January 23, 2011
Trichet interview

from Bloomberg: Trichet Expects EU to Agree on More Automatic Enforcement of Budget Rules

after translating his words to Hebrew it came out as: "my authority is only to bark, I am not entitled and not able to bite. it's just a nice job but better for everybody not to dream that the ECB is able to solve any problem"

wishing good trading week to everyone.

Mtl JP 19:24 GMT January 23, 2011
From China, Signs That Gold's Rally Isn't Endless

Gold's UP trend currently appears strong
decent r/r price level to start buying Gold is 1316.60

Syd 18:57 GMT January 23, 2011
From China, Signs That Gold's Rally Isn't Endless
investors are now looking to China, where prices are rising rapidly, sparking worries that the government may raise interest rates sharply to stifle demand. As well, the prospect of the Federal Reserve pulling back from its stimulus policies this year and withdrawing liquidity from the financial system, is reducing demand for gold, and dimming inflation fears.
Dennis Gartman, a hedge-fund manager and author of the Gartman Letter, has sold two-thirds of his gold holdings over the past few weeks. On Thursday, he said he sold because of "the fact that it wasn't making new highs and that the market was a little too crowded."
"Everywhere you went, everyone you knew was aggressive long," he added. "That's a bad sign, because that means everybody has already bought."
Irish Prime Minister Cowen Resigns as Party Leader .
Britain in battle over stagflation
New figures set to confirm that growth has slowed, while unemployment and oil prices rise – a severe problem that blighted the 1970s.

BERN DS 18:12 GMT January 23, 2011
gold ans silver... much higher still into end 2011 early 2012,,, think we could see a 30-50 pct rise here... then eventually the run into commodities will turn into a bust... lets wait and see ... we remain flexible and extremely opportunistic.

Tonbridge AL 17:15 GMT January 23, 2011

Weekly setup videos for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD for the week ahead
Click here to access the videos

Vienna GD 17:02 GMT January 23, 2011
EURO Trading

bern ds - your gold, silver and crude outlook?

Israel dil 16:55 GMT January 23, 2011
EURO Trading

there is no single fundamental reason for buy euros. Flow of bad news and instability from ireland, greece, belgium, italy and portugal. so, just for not having logic reasons to buy euros, I am going long euros as soon trading starts.

Caribbean! Rafe... 16:34 GMT January 23, 2011
I am to say

HK RF@ 00:30 GMT January 23, 2011

RF// care to say to which member are you referring? i am just curious.

tia gl gt

Israel dil 16:29 GMT January 23, 2011
ireland's green party quit the coalition. it is a minority government and the bailout does not worth the papers it signed on. Must be positive news for the european single currency.

BERN DS 15:41 GMT January 23, 2011
EURO Trading
AS expected EURO Haters got punished this early part of the year... think some more rally trading is ahead- before the really big bang bear trading will be back for us all... think could see in the 17000 ies eurusd before fall to 0.5000 next 24 month... eurchf to range 12800-13600 for next 6 month before fall to way under par... hopefully i did not bless anybody with these comments... apologize... we will remain flexible in our trading- so far was pretty ok since NewYear... have a great time all and many thanks to FM, RANA, RF , MONACO OIL MAN and others , who all the time can separate themselves from the crowd ! Good job...

Hillegom Purk 14:51 GMT January 23, 2011
I am to say

HK RF i do not know what you are talking about, but your frussies are still there. another soul is lost.

Livingston nh 14:28 GMT January 23, 2011
Mr. Muddle Through has now adopted the Theory of Unsustainability but he should keep in mind that the longer an unsustainable condition persists the more likely it is to become permanent

GVI Forex Blog 11:52 GMT January 23, 2011 Reply   
This week’s letter is a result of two lengthy conversations I had today, which have me in a reflective mode. Plus, I finished the last, final edits of my book, all of which is causing me to mull over the unsustainability of the US fiscal situation. There is a true Endgame here, and it may happen before we are ready.

The Unsustainable Meets the Irresistible

makassar alimin 09:58 GMT January 23, 2011
Tornbridge, AL
looking forward to watching AL's weekly insight videos, is there one for this week?

vancouver 09:15 GMT January 23, 2011
at this point would you buy or see euro against us

Syd 06:41 GMT January 23, 2011
China's Dispossessed
In the first of a short series of programmes, Peter Day reports from China. This week he looks at the dispossessed.

Over the past 30 years China's great economic modernisation programme has required many people to move – to provide a workforce for the thousands of factories producing goods for the global market and for big domestic infrastructure projects like the Three Gorges Dam and now the South to North Water Diversion project.

However the migration - whether for personal economic gain or for the good of the country - hasn't always been smooth.

There have been recent strikes and suicides by isolated migrant workers in big cities like Shenzhen, and many have lost land and property to make way for gigantic infrastructure projects.

Peter Day reports from Beijing, Shenzhen and Hubei province on the people who've made sacrifices for China’s economic progress

Syd 05:44 GMT January 23, 2011
What will rising food and energy prices mean for China?
In the year to November, China's consumer prices rose by 5.1%. Independent economist Andy Xie tells Lesley Curwen that if wages of low-income Chinese do not catch up with inflation, there could be 'a lot more social discontent.'
Plus, former UK central banker, David Blanchflower argues that falling prices pose a bigger risk to the world than inflation.

And the BBC's Mark Tully in Delhi says the crisis in the microfinance industry illustrates the difficulties for businesses operating in India.

dc CB 01:15 GMT January 23, 2011
nearing US elections year

the JPM foodstamp stuff has been known for some time...of course not in the MSP(main stream press)

For you weekend reading. History of the Family Pt 1:

Many investors today, as they learn more about the nature of the Federal Reserve, are asking themselves how the US, the supposed land of the free, permit a non-Government-based cartel to take control of its monetary system? Who controls the Fed? And just how did they attain this unbelievable power to operate with the Government’s approval?
To answer all of these questions, we need to put on our winter coats and step back in time to a New Jersey train platform on a cold wintery night in November 1910…

HK RF@ 00:30 GMT January 23, 2011
I am to say

Hillegom Purk 06:37 GMT January 22, 2011

Know by that all, that "I am to say"(IATS) is a friend of Purk, and that is the reason he has never wrote anything concerning the posts of IATS.
Clannish loyalty is what made him jump as a response to my post.
IATS was well identified as a long time member with EURO-short investments which went badly under the water, but in order to avoid being asked or mocked about it, has changed his screen name.

And Mr. Purk doesn't like anyone saying anything which will hurt IATS.


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