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Forex Forum Archive for 01/29/2011

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Syd 23:43 GMT January 29, 2011
'China syndrome' means country faces dangerous property bubble
'China syndrome' means country faces dangerous property bubble
One of China's leading economists has said that the country is facing the possibility of a dangerous real-estate bubble and rising inflation which could put growth at risk.
Yu Yongding, senior fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) and former member of the monetary policy committee of the People's Bank of China, said that the demand for new property was so high that prices were in danger of soaring out of control.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Mr Yongding said that China's authorities would have to act to calm the market and that the rate of growth would have to be lowered: "Definitely inflation is the biggest concern so far. At the same time we are concerned about a real estate bubble.

"The demand for houses is still tremendous. So there is a tug of war between the central bank and the real estate developers. If the bank loosens [the property] policy there may be a re-emergence of a real estate bubble."

CASS is affiliated to the State Council, one of the major government bodies in China.

Mr Yongding's warning comes after a series of signals that markets are becoming concerned that the rapid rate of growth in China is not sustainable.
Three weeks ago The Sunday Telegraph revealed that a number of hedge funds had begun taking short positions against China.

The following week, Goldman Sachs warned of some short term dangers for the Chinese economy and last week a report from the consultants, McKinsey, said that high property and commodity prices were a threat.

The property tax would have "a big psychological effect on potential home buyers," said Ge Haifeng, head of research at China Real Estate Index System in Beijing. "China's housing market may get really quiet in coming months," he said.

dc CB 23:16 GMT January 29, 2011
The original Banksters quote

Fair Game
A Bank Crisis Whodunit, With Laughs and Tears
Published: January 29, 2011

TRULY startling revelations were few in the voluminous report, published last Thursday by the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission on the origins of the financial panic. This is hardly a shock, given the flood-the-zone coverage and analysis of the crisis since it erupted four years ago.

Yet the report still makes for compelling reading because so little has changed as a result of the debacle, in both banking and in its regulation. Providing chapter and verse, for example, on the bumbling and siloed management at the nation’s largest banks is enlightening, in that many of these institutions are even bigger than they were before. With too-big-to-fail institutions now larger than ever, we are almost certain to go through another episode like 2008 in the not-too-distant future.

For those who might find the report’s 633 pages a bit daunting for a weekend read, we offer a Cliffs Notes version

Mtl JP 22:12 GMT January 29, 2011
The original Banksters quote

and in DAVOS-Lobster in the mountains, riots on the Nile
Jan 29 (Reuters) - The global elite, dining on Norwegian lobster and reindeer at the end of the World Economic Forum on Saturday, felt pretty chipper despite growing concerns about the inequality of the economic recovery. .../..

dc CB 18:12 GMT January 29, 2011
The original Banksters quote
This week the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission released its report about the causes of the Crash of 2008. The reaction has been muted at best. This says much about how power and influence has shifted. Taking a look back....

In 1932-33 there was Senate inquiry in to the causes of that Great Crash, which became known as the Pecora Hearings.

Writing to his Attorney General William D. Mitchell just before the end of his presidency in Jan 1933, Herbert Hoover, who had never blamed the banks for being anything but victims of trying times, expressed his concern about what was being revealed by those Senate hearings. Not exactly the stuff being said today by anyone in the current administration.

"If only part of the things brought out prove true, these men have done the American people more damage than all the incidental operations of Al Capone. Capone had the merit of confining his robbery and the infliction of physical violence to the wicked....if these stories are true these men are not bankers, they are banksters who rob the poor, drive the innocent to poverty and suicide and do infinite injury to those who honestly work and strive. Worse than that, they are traitors to our institutions and national ideals"

The Hellhound of Wall Street, by Michael Perino. Ferdinand Pecora's investigation of the Great Crash. Penguin Press.

Israel dil 17:51 GMT January 29, 2011

for some time it will be new set of heads to blame about the deep political sickness in egypt. There are no solutions seen through the horizons. It is timeout status. Maybe worth for some panic usd selling for few days. Maybe.

dc CB 17:42 GMT January 29, 2011
No one could have forseen!!!
Lehman Had $200 Billion Overnight Repos Pre-Failure.

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., before it failed, financed about a third of its assets with $200 billion in overnight repurchase agreements handled by clearing banks, and depended on 10 short-term lenders for 80 percent of its repos, according to a report that includes a list provided to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in September 2008.

GVI Forex Jay 17:15 GMT January 29, 2011
Tech Talk

17:15 GMT ( January 29 - At a minimum the price action to end last week will restore what had turned into a one-way market until that time. The streak of 13 out of 14 higher closes and a week where new highs were set each day were broken on Friday. For me, the break of the 100 hour mva (see chart – green line) that I had been pointing out as a key indicator (but no one commented on) was the confirmation for me on Friday. The market is now in the hands of political events but at a minimum has added a new element of risk and this suggests at least restoring a two-way risk. Looking at charts:

On the downside, using 1.2875-1.3759:
1.3550 = 23.6%
1.3421 = 38.2%
1.3317 = 50%
1.3213 = 61.8%

Using 1.3247-1.3759

1.3563 = 38.2%
1.3503 = 50%
1.3443 = 61.8%

1.3493 = 100 day mva
1.3358 = 20 day mva

Chart points between 1.35-1.36 (all minor)
1.3584 = Friday low
1.3573 = Jan 25 low
1.3545 = R1 (1.3483 = R2)
1.3540 = Jan 24 and last week’s low

Also, watch the 200 hour mva (yellow line) that checked the downside on Friday

On the upside,
1.3638 = former support and resistance in the US afternoon
100 hour mva (see chart – green line)
1.3700 (printed past 4 days and set the tone last week)

FW CS 15:45 GMT January 29, 2011

Bern DS
So if EUR/CHF goes to par where does that put $/CHF--> 75?

BERN DS 09:37 GMT January 29, 2011
The break to the downside of those 2 crosses indicates to me big trouble ahead for stock markets. Here I am not speaking about a little correction - it could be a bigger one- eventually up to 20 pct this time, which means, we could go down all the way to 10000..... EURCHF as mentioned on thursday could go to its lows and AUDJPY as a supplement to 77ish... of course , remaining flexible is the key... personally I have added on my signal service a strong buy on friday afternoon for USD-TRY around 16000... the BLACK SWAN will come from those areas not from EURO LAND.... so USD ... could tank dramatically against CHF and JPY.... (at least I believe that...) as on our platforms we have access , the consesus is clear- over 85 percent of retailers are long USDCHF and USDJPY... enjoy your weekend...

Syd 08:00 GMT January 29, 2011
Flood levy to test Gillard's leadership
The levy to rebuild flood-ravaged Queensland is mutating into a leadership test for Prime Minister Julia Gillard, amid opposition calls for the rural independent MPs to switch camps.

Syd 05:37 GMT January 29, 2011
Stock Markets Are 'Overpriced': Robert Shiller

Syd 03:14 GMT January 29, 2011
Independents should ditch Gillard: Abbott
Opposition leader Tony Abbott is urging rural independent MPs to ditch their support for Prime Minister Julia Gillard, accusing her of using the floods to mask her government's spending addiction.
"Like the global financial crisis under Kevin Rudd, the government could use the floods as a justification for its spending addiction and as a licensed distraction from actually delivering on its promises.

"At some point, the independent MPs who returned the government to office could start to reconsider their decision."

Lakeville BP 00:23 GMT January 29, 2011
Better he has already left for the airport

Some day we all will sit around and drink some of that Jesus wine talking about how good this GV Forex blog is.Having a good old time. Although a rookie on this site, you people are good people.
Freedom and peace to all.
We are all in this world together .Lets have a great time and make money.

London SFH 00:10 GMT January 29, 2011
Better he has already left for the airport

All that saids he was corrupy and quite despicable


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