Forex Forum Archive for 01/30/2011

philadelphia caba 23:58 GMT January 30, 2011
usd/jpy
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start accumulating usd/jpy long for m/t with stop just below 80 and target 87.50 - 90

Syd 23:56 GMT January 30, 2011
Australian House Prices Flat In December- RP Data-Rismark
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According to the RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index, house prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.2% in December versus November. In the fourth quarter, house prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% from the third quarter.

CAIRO, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Egypt's police, withdrawn after the army were sent in to restore order in cities amidst widespread anti-government protests, will return to the streets on Monday, security sources said.

Banks tipped to take $1b hit in bad debts from flood
THE nation's banks are likely to face a $1 billion surge in bad debts as a result of the floods in eastern Australia, as many homeowners and businesses face financial ruin.
The rating agency Standard & Poor's told global bond investors that Australian mortgage-backed bonds were likely to yield a jump in arrears.
LINK

The disaster is likely to trigger a $200 million rise in bad debt charges for each of the big four banks, while regional lenders such as Bank of Queensland and Suncorp also face big losses
LINK

Fukuoka Rana 23:34 GMT January 30, 2011
jpy
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Buy AUDUSD
Entry: 0.988 Target: open Stop: later

good morning to all,bought small one.....eurusd short still hold from 1.37...............happy day,

Syd 23:34 GMT January 30, 2011
US To Evacuate Thousands Of Americans From Egypt
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WASHINGTON (AFP)--The United States plans to begin evacuating thousands of Americans from Egypt on Monday aboard government-arranged chartered planes, a senior official said.

"U.S. citizens in Egypt should consider leaving as soon as they can do so," Assistant Secretary of State Janice Jacobs told reporters in a conference call.

Amid widespread looting, lawlessness and growing insecurity in the deadly protests, the United States was "encouraging Americans to limit their movements... to the extent that they can and certainly to avoid any location where there are protests taking place."

Reuters witness said protesters were touting machine guns looted from a torched police station.Two thirds of Egypt's 80 million people are below the age of 30 and unemployment is rife, even in Suez which has the Canal which carries Middle East oil to Western Europe as well as other maritime cargoes.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/28/us-egypt-suez-idUSTRE70R8IC20110128

YVR MAXXIM 23:26 GMT January 30, 2011
a big bullish selling everything !!


Entry: enough Target: $in Stop: gapore

http://www.patterntrapper.com/!TT_Forex.shtml

GVI Forex Blog 22:14 GMT January 30, 2011 Reply   
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: Egypt's turmoil should continue to provide a risk averse tone to markets today. AUD resistance at 1.0000 has been strong, a move to 0.9980 favoured today. NZD major resistance at 0.7800 has held three times this month and should provide a cap today, a drift towards 0.7700 more likely. Data releases today for both countries are second tier.

Forex - Morning Report

Lahore FM 22:14 GMT January 30, 2011
Trade Ideas

Buy EURJPY
Entry: 111.73 Target: 119.00/122.00 Stop: 110

long in play.

Syd 22:09 GMT January 30, 2011
fx
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New Zealand Adjusted December Dwelling Consents Down 18.6% Vs November was the largest drop since Oct 2008
TEHRAN (AFP)--Iran said Sunday that it will showcase what it called a new range of rockets and satellites during annual celebrations marking the 32nd anniversary of the Islamic revolution. The state television report said the other Kavoshgar [Explorer] 4 rocket has a range of 120 kilometers.
Iran's missile and space programs have sparked concern abroad that such advanced technologies, combined with the nuclear know-how that the nation is acquiring, may enable Tehran to produce an atomic weapon. Iran denies its nuclear program has military aims.
CAIRO (AFP)--Dozens of bodies were seen lying on a road near Cairo's Abu Zaabal prison Sunday after rioting there killed at least eight prisoners amid nationwide anti-regime protests, a security source told AFP.

Egypt's turmoil may have a strong impact on the country's banking fundamentals, even if the unrest ceases, as loan growth could stall and lenders will become more cautious in extending loans, says investment bank AlembicHC in a note. "We may see a deterioration in business climate, resulting in a decreased willingness to invest, with negative implications for loan growth [which we anticipated to be 15-20% this year]. Banks may become much more cautious in extending loans." Says we may also see deposit outflows, if individuals are taking out deposits abroad.

Syd 21:49 GMT January 30, 2011
Greece Ready To Lauch Immediate Citizen Evacuation From Egypt
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The Greek Foreign Ministry said Sunday that it has formulated contingency plans that are ready to be launched at any minute to evacuate its citizens from Egypt due to the riots and instability engulfing the Middle East country

WSJ: Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood Backs ElBaradei Role
The Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's venerable and controversial Islamic organization, says it has backed Mohamed ElBaradei as the lead spokesman for the country's opposition groups to negotiate further political reforms with the shaky Egyptian government.

DUBLIN (AFP)--An overwhelming majority of Irish voters want the terms of a 67.5 billion euro ($92 billion) European Union-International Monetary Fund bailout renegotiated, according to an opinion poll out Sunday.

WASHINGTON D.C., United States (AFP)--The United States is "losing credibility by the day" in calling for democracy in Egypt while continuing to support President Hosni Mubarak, leading dissident Mohamed El Baradei said Sunday.

GVI Forex john 21:40 GMT January 30, 2011


WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

CALENDAR: Far East: JP- Industrial Output. Europe: DE- Retail Sales EZ- flash HICP. North America: CA- GDP, PPI. US- Personal Income, Core PCE inflation, Chicago PMI.. 

• Political instability in Egypt took hold of the markets as the day wore on Friday.

• Unclear where things are headed generally in the region. Could be resolved in a number of days or weeks.  

• Political events don't have the staying power of economic developments.

• Month-end period for institutions generating some position squaring.

• EURUSD 1.3700 pivot point =1.3645 for Monday. Support level #1 1.3545. 

• Watching flight to safety trades as a guide.
  

GVI Forex john 21:02 GMT January 30, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

CALENDAR
Entry: Target: Stop:

January 28 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, January 31:

• Far East: JP- Industrial Output.
• Europe: DE- Retail Sales EZ- flash HICP.
• North America: CA- GDP, PPI. US- Personal Income, Core PCE inflation, Chicago PMI.

Syd 20:48 GMT January 30, 2011
AUD Gillard, your time starts now
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A week tomorrow Prime Minister Julia Gillard begins the job for which she has waited all her political life. When she rises in parliament for the first time in 2011, it will be to face a wall of opprobrium built in the past weeks by those who date the beginning of her work as much earlier – the day of the Labor coup, June 24, 2010.

Syd 20:38 GMT January 30, 2011
fx
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Cairo: Anger starting to focus on Israel, US
As change fails to come, protestors hold signs saying: "Go Away Mubarak, you are from the Americans!"; others blame Israel for backing gov't.
LINK
Fed says bond buys to cut US jobless rate, boost GDP
CHICAGO, Jan 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve's asset-purchase programs will have trimmed 1.5 percentage points from the U.S. jobless rate by mid-2012, according to economists at the San Francisco Fed and the U.S. central bank's Board of Governors.
LINK
EU working on "Brady plan" for Greece - report
(Reuters) - The EU, the IMF and the ECB are working on a solution to reduce Greece's debt along the lines of the Brady plan, which rescued Latin America from bankruptcy in the 1980s, Greek newspaper To Vima reported on Saturday.
LINK
'China syndrome' means country faces dangerous property bubble LINK
Investors Worry That Mideast Will Be Market's Next Crisis
LINK

Why Gillard's flood levy won't float
“Gillard did a drive-by shooting of some wretched programs”.

Lahore FM 20:11 GMT January 30, 2011
-- Trade Ideas --

imho there is good chance of across the board usd strength.gold can slide back to a new low for this move on dailies if breaks below 1320 today once more.

Israel dil 19:45 GMT January 30, 2011
a big bullish selling everything !!

Official: 19 private jets, carrying families of Egyptian businessmen, leave Cairo

By Tarek El-Tablawy (CP) – 19 hours ago

CAIRO — An official at Cairo airport says 19 private jets carrying families of wealthy Egyptian and Arab businessmen have flown out of the capital. The official said the jets left Saturday carrying dozens of family members of Egypt's business elite. He said most of the planes were headed for Dubai. The passengers included the families of telecom mogul Naguib Sawiris, the executive chairman of Orascom Telecom, and Hussein Salem, a hotel tycoon and close confidant of President Hosni Mubarak. The exodus of the families comes as Egypt enters its sixth day of mass unrest directed against Mubarak and what they say have been policies that further enrich the wealthy at the average citizen's expense. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to brief the media.

Copyright © 2011 The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Syd 19:45 GMT January 30, 2011
Aud
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their=there

Syd 19:43 GMT January 30, 2011
Aud
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Singapore SGFXTrader many negatives out their at the moment , it already dropped 50pts since open possible can get further down as this week gets moving GT

sao cg 19:21 GMT January 30, 2011
a big bullish selling everything !!
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Entry: sell everything Target: Stop:

HIGHEST CASH RESERVE SINCE LEHMAN CRISIS


We have a strategy change.



We have raised cash in US stock accounts, international stock accounts and global multi-asset class accounts. This is the first time we have done so since becoming fully invested in early 2009. Our selling strategy emphasized exiting small cap positions.



We are worried about the developing geopolitical risk in the Middle East and North Africa. We do not know where it will spread nor do we know how it will run its course. We also do not know what direction these regimes will take if there is over throw of the existing system in any of these countries. We do know that we see turmoil in Egypt, Tunisia and Yemen.



As everyone can see by following the news flow, this is not confined to any single country. Therefore, a contagion risk exists. The risk is that it spreads elsewhere in the Arab world. Modern technology allows turmoil to be exported quickly from place to place. We are seeing it daily.



We do not know how long we will stay positioned with a cash reserve. Moreover, we may redeploy quickly or slowly. For now, we go into the weekend with the highest cash reserve since the 2008, post-Lehman-AIG period.



David R. Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer

Israel dil 18:56 GMT January 30, 2011
Egypt

- Mohamed ElBaradei calls for democratic Egypt and declared that free elections must take place, sounds great!

- The same time he has support from the Muslim Brotherhood to come into power. without support from the Muslim Brotherhood, Mohamed ElBaradei has no popular support, firm fact.

- U.S. officials say legalizing the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is dangerous.

- Muslim Brotherhood is source of inspire for Al Qaida as said by Osama Bin Laden, will the Egyptian army to turn into the first Al Qaida army?

- we, little Israel the motherland of Jews, tough times in front of us, maybe the fact that out the 2500 world's elite in Davos the Jews played a major role, maybe too major.

democracy with Muslim Brotherhood is a wonder to discover. fact is that Muslim Brotherhood opposes suffrage for women.

* here we go to forex, for any time frame EGP is a sell. with all mentioned above, how Egypt can stabilize and run productive economy?

GVI Forex john 14:24 GMT January 30, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

GVI CHART POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:

Trading Resources...

GVI Forex john 14:19 GMT January 30, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

USD PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:

Pivots	EURUSD	USDJPY	USDCHF	GBPUSD	USDCAD	AUDUSD
Res 3	1.3869	83.63	0.9545	1.6085	1.0127	1.0077
Res 2	1.3807	83.28	0.9508	1.6026	1.0072	1.0031
Res 1	1.3707	82.69	0.9463	1.5945	1.0043	0.9977

Pivot	1.3645	82.34	0.9426	1.5886	0.9988	0.9931

Sup 1	1.3545	81.75	0.9381	1.5805	0.9959	0.9877
Sup 2	1.3483	81.40	0.9344	1.5746	0.9904	0.9831
Sup 3	1.3383	80.81	0.9299	1.5665	0.9875	0.9777

GVI Forex john 14:14 GMT January 30, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

USD MOVING AVERAGES
Entry: Target: Stop:

Latest	EURUSD	USDJPY	USDCHF	GBPUSD	USDCAD	AUDUSD
Last	1.3606	82.10	0.9419	1.5865	1.0014	0.9923
High	1.3746	82.93	0.9470	1.5966	1.0017	0.9985
Low	1.3584	81.99	0.9388	1.5826	0.9933	0.9885
Change	-0.0131	-0.76	-0.0036	-0.0062	0.0082	0.0001

MVA	EURUSD	USDJPY	USDCHF	GBPUSD	USDCAD	AUDUSD
5 day	1.3671	82.41	0.9444	1.5899	0.9964	0.9951
10 day	1.3558	82.50	0.9531	1.5924	0.9948	0.9944
20 day	1.3355	82.65	0.9574	1.5774	0.9936	0.9958
50 day	1.3279	83.02	0.9664	1.5674	1.0030	0.9927
100 day	1.3493	82.83	0.9725	1.5775	1.0107	0.9855
200 day	1.3076	85.76	1.0266	1.5453	1.0251	0.9331

TREND	EURUSD	USDJPY	USDCHF	GBPUSD	USDCAD	AUDUSD
BIAS	Up	Down	Down	Up	Up	Down

Israel dil 12:40 GMT January 30, 2011
The original Banksters quote

Davos has population of 11000
Davos economic forum is 4 days long and hosts 2500 invited guests
Davos gets almost 30% of their yearly GDP during those 4 days.

Nice formula to share global wealth fairly always comes out that forum.

Singapore SGFXTrader 11:51 GMT January 30, 2011
Banks to face surge in bad debts after floods

Sell AUDUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Syd, does it mean that Audusd should tank from monday onwards with so much losses due to the flood in queensland, brisbane, etc.

Syd 08:02 GMT January 30, 2011
Cyclones to hit flood-weary Australia
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http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iX5rf_S1ET6
ullcXXaj_dJbwhhkQ?docId=CNG.764e37f8c399559677198259f1c4d8aa.3b1

kl fs 08:00 GMT January 30, 2011
sell usdjpy
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we have got a formidable resistance near 83.40, should be good for some down trend once 81.80 is cracked for a retest of 79 and then 75

Vancouver 07:46 GMT January 30, 2011
usdcan
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USDCAD
Entry: Target: Stop:

any tips on this pair usdcan

Syd 05:10 GMT January 30, 2011
Protests force Egypt bank and market shutdown
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Egypt's banks will be closed on Sunday, the first day of the country's business week, the deputy central bank governor said, a move analysts said could spook investors looking to trade after unprecedented countrywide protests.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/8290325/Protests-force-Egypt-bank-and-market-shutdown.html

Syd 04:14 GMT January 30, 2011
Spain's Banks Face $111 Billion Funding Hurdle in 2011 Amid Bailout Threat
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http://windsorbrokers.biz/en/content/spains-banks-face-111-billion-funding-hurdle-2011-amid-bailout-threat

Syd 03:41 GMT January 30, 2011
Banks to face surge in bad debts after floods
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THE banks are likely to see a $1 billion surge in bad debts as a result of the devastating floods across eastern Australia, with many home owners and businesses caught in the disaster facing financial ruin.The disaster is likely to trigger a $200 million jump in bad-debt charges for the big four banks, while regional lenders such as Bank of Queensland and Suncorp also face big losses.Brokerage UBS has warned that banks will also be left with mortgages on properties that no longer exist, and that some houses and commercial property developments in flood zones now face having their value slashed, potentially triggering further write-offs.''Our early estimate is around $1 billion of losses to the banking sector,'' he said. ''In addition, the banks will see losses from a large number of small businesses which have lost inventory and equipment, as well as seen property damage.''
www.smh.com.au/business/banks-to-face-surge-in-bad-debts-after-floods-20110128-1a8hp.html

dc CB 02:20 GMT January 30, 2011
it would be awesome if...

We can supply you with the aforementioned service.
The initial Startup fee will be $7.5million. The monthly maintnace fee is currently $65K(subject to change without notice).

This will give you access to all bid and asks of all Listed NYSE Stocks .00000000000078 milliseconds before they are expsoded to the prior subscribers to this service. (Subject to change in terms withour notice)

Sorry the above mentioned service does not apply to fiat paper quotes or commodities.

atlanta blahblah 01:49 GMT January 30, 2011
it would be awesome if...
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sometimes on forexlive there are posts about large bid and offer orders and buy or sell stops and what levels those are at. knowing this information makes planning trades a little easier.

it would be awesome if i could get access to a resource that could show me where bids and offers were positioned and where stops were also located for other traders.

is there anyway to get this kind of information without having a friend who works at a broker?

Syd 00:21 GMT January 30, 2011
$8bn coal hit wipes year's growth in Queensland
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Lost coal production in Queensland will cost up to $8 billion by July according to miners, drowning a full year of state economic growth in the flood disaster.
The Queensland Resources Council yesterday predicted that coal production for the March quarter would crash by between 25 and 50 per cent. Queensland's gross state product for 2010-11 would take a hit of at least $4.5bn, rising to $8bn on the QRC's worst-case scenario.
LINK
FLOOD victims simply can't be without the roads and the railways which are necessary for modern life.
Unavoidably, the national government will pay the lion's share of these reconstruction costs. This will run into billions of dollars but that's no excuse for the flood tax that the Prime Minister has just announced.
LINK