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Forex Forum Archive for 01/31/2011

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Syd 23:15 GMT January 31, 2011
La Caixa's Exposure To Real-Estate Totals Nearly EUR26.3B
Reply   
Spain's largest savings bank, La Caixa, said Monday that as of Dec. 31 it held close to EUR26.3 billion in outstanding loans with real-estate developers and builders, nearly EUR4.1 billion of which are at risk of defaulting. www.cnmv.es

Beyond Respite, Egypt Risk Looms Large For Markets
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110131-716473.html

GVI Forex john 23:10 GMT January 31, 2011


WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

CALENDAR: Far East: CN- NBS PMI, RBA policy Decision, Europe: CH- Retail Sales, PMI, EZ- PMI, Unemployment, GB- Mfg PMI, M4 Money Supply. North America: US- Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, API Energy

  • Egyptian political trumps other factors still unclear where things are headed in the region. 

  • From a trading perspective, political events often don't have the staying power of economic trends.

  • Weak German December retail sales were followed by above target flash EZ HICP (CPI). ECB targets HICP. 

  • USD economic news mixed. 

  • Watching flight to safety trades.

  • EURUSD focused on neutrality at 1.3700.

  • Actice calendar Tuesday with key PMI data due.



Lahore FM 22:40 GMT January 31, 2011
-- Trade Ideas --

Sell AUDCAD
Entry: Target: Stop:

audcad looks like a short at 0.9974 now for 0.9680 area.

Syd 22:38 GMT January 31, 2011
AUD/USD Vulnerable To Dovish RBA Comments - CBA
Reply   
The AUD/USD is trading quietly ahead of the 0330 GMT RBA policy statement. Joe Capurso, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, says he expects a dovish statement from the RBA to accompany a decision that leaves interest rates on hold at 4.75%. Says the RBA must deal with the issue of the Queensland floods, which will slow the economy in the first half of 2011, leaving the market with the sense that rates won't rise any time soon. Expects the Australian dollar to fall by close to half a U.S. cent, giving back some of the gains it posted overnight on a recovery in risk appetite.

Australia's manufacturers improved slightly in January, though the industry remains damped by a high local currency and soft domestic demand, according to an index released Tuesday.
Also worrying for producers, new orders improved only slightly, suggesting little relief may be in sight.
While an increase, the index remains below the 50-point level that separates expansion from contraction. The continued contraction highlights the stark contrasts within Australia's economy as a once-in-a-century mining boom grabs headlines but with little solace for manufacturers and exporters outside of the mining sector.
5th consecutive month of contraction

GVI Forex john 22:31 GMT January 31, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Global-View Chart Gallery updated. A wide selection of updated forex, interest rate and equity charts.

Global-View Market Tracker updated. Twice daily survey and technical studies of a broad range of related markets.

Lahore FM 22:17 GMT January 31, 2011
-- Trade Ideas --

Sell AUDUSD
Entry: 0.9972 Target: Stop: 1.0030

sold a fourth time now,each time earlier made 60 to 120 pips on partial closes and got stopped at entries on remainder shorts.

Livingston nh 22:13 GMT January 31, 2011
POMO Ponzi

CB - I guess he figures as long as he doesn't buy direct from the treasury it's OK -- everybody loves FREE money so wait until he tries to take some of it back - Congress will be howling

Syd 22:01 GMT January 31, 2011
Currency Cross-Currents
Reply   
What traders make of the Egyptian uncertainty, with Bob Iaccino, Traderoutlook.com; Kevin Book, Clearview Energy Partners; and Boris Schlossberg, censored Forex.
www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1773806953&play=1

WSJ: The Noor Group Was Last Working Egypt Internet Service Provider, Says Renesys
Egyptian Internet Service Provider The Noor Group Goes Down, Says Renesys

Obama Aide Sperling: Q4 GDP Growth Had Encouraging Signs -CNBC
Obama Aide Sperling: Growth Means We Could See Unemployment Rate Come Down -CNBC
Obama Aide Sperling: Q4 GDP Growth Had Encouraging Signs -CNBC

dc CB 21:57 GMT January 31, 2011
POMO Ponzi

nh

"Not quite debt monetisation Defcon one status yet, but definitely creeping up the Defcon scale. Defcon three perhaps?"

the thing is Ben underoath before congress said that the Fed was not monetizing the debt. No one calls him on it....isn't lying under oath a crime?

GVI Forex Blog 21:46 GMT January 31, 2011 Reply   
The euro headed for its second consecutive monthly advance against the dollar on Monday and more gains could be in store after a jump in euro zone inflation bolstered the view interest rates in the region could rise more quickly than in the United States.

FOREX NEWS - Euro heads for second straight monthly gain vs dollar

Syd 21:41 GMT January 31, 2011
fx
Reply   
Residents urged to flee monster cyclone
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/01/3126405.htm?section=justin

Discussing the impact of the Egyptian revolution on markets, commodities and currencies around the world, with Boris Schlossberg, censored Forex; David Riedel, Riedel Research Group; Kevin Ferry, Cronus Futures Management; and Marc Chandler, Brown Brothers Harriman.

www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1773532263&play=1


Warwick McKibbin exit from Reserve Bank
There has been speculation that Professor McKibbin will be dumped from the board because of his criticism of both the government's economic stimulus program and its flood levy.
Opposition Treasury spokesman Joe Hockey said decisions on the Reserve Bank board membership should be decided strictly on merit. "There is no doubting Warwick McKibbin is Australia's pre-eminent economist and his views are hugely important for mature political debate in Australia," Mr Hockey said. "He would be a major loss to the RBA board." Mr Fraser said Professor McKibbin's suitability for the board should not be based on his comments on government policy.
"Warwick has been an active public commentator on all sorts of economic and political issues," Mr Fraser said.
"What is said in that commentary that might be critical of the government of any persuasion shouldn't be seen as contrary to his Reserve Bank board activities."
HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham, who was a senior economist with the Reserve Bank until September last year, said Professor McKibbin was well regarded by the staff. He noted that he had international standing as an academic and also knew Reserve Bank issues intimately, having worked there himself for more than 10 years. "I think you'd be hard pressed to find someone who was as equally qualified," Mr Bloxham said.
Will come back and smack Swan in the face

Livingston nh 21:35 GMT January 31, 2011
POMO Ponzi

cb- LINK -- from FTAlphavll deals w/ one of your favorites (Fed buying on the run)

Syd 21:26 GMT January 31, 2011
Unruly Monday Markets
Reply   
Investors continue to watch the latest developments out of Egypt, with Barry Knapp, Barclays head of U.S. portfolio strategy, and Mohamed El-Erian, PIMCO CEO & co-CIO.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1773914707&play=1

Cambridge Joe 21:22 GMT January 31, 2011
CONTACT
Reply   
SMS// If you see this, please contact me thru members forum.
I searched but don't see you there.

It is to compare notes !

Joe

GVI Forex john 21:19 GMT January 31, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support




GVI Forex john 21:13 GMT January 31, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

USD PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:

Pivots	EURUSD	USDJPY	USDCHF	GBPUSD	USDCAD	AUDUSD
Res 3	1.3932	82.57	0.9542	1.6330	1.0154	1.0141
Res 2	1.3836	82.42	0.9495	1.6189	1.0106	1.0066
Res 1	1.3764	82.22	0.9464	1.6103	1.0060	1.0018

Pivot	1.3668	82.07	0.9417	1.5962	1.0012	0.9943

Sup 1	1.3596	81.87	0.9386	1.5876	0.9966	0.9895
Sup 2	1.3500	81.72	0.9339	1.5735	0.9918	0.9820
Sup 3	1.3428	81.52	0.9308	1.5649	0.9872	0.9772

GVI Forex john 21:11 GMT January 31, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

USD MOVING AVERAGES
Entry: Target: Stop:

Latest	EURUSD	USDJPY	USDCHF	GBPUSD	USDCAD	AUDUSD
Last	1.3693	82.03	0.9433	1.6016	1.0015	0.9970
High	1.3739	82.26	0.9448	1.6049	1.0057	0.9991
Low	1.3571	81.91	0.9370	1.5822	0.9963	0.9868
Change	0.0087	-0.07	0.0014	0.0151	0.0001	0.0047

MVA	EURUSD	USDJPY	USDCHF	GBPUSD	USDCAD	AUDUSD
5 day	1.3682	82.31	0.9432	1.5904	0.9977	0.9950
10 day	1.3598	82.43	0.9510	1.5936	0.9963	0.9947
20 day	1.3372	82.66	0.9579	1.5801	0.9940	0.9949
50 day	1.3286	82.99	0.9654	1.5679	1.0026	0.9932
100 day	1.3500	82.82	0.9720	1.5779	1.0105	0.9861
200 day	1.3078	85.70	1.0260	1.5456	1.0251	0.9335

TREND	EURUSD	USDJPY	USDCHF	GBPUSD	USDCAD	AUDUSD
BIAS	Up	Down	Down	Up	Up	Up

GVI Forex john 20:51 GMT January 31, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex Blog 20:47 GMT January 31, 2011 Reply   
GBP/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) as of Monday (1/31/2011) has made a significant bullish push, reaching up once again to break tentatively above key psychological resistance around the 1.6000

GBP/USD Reaches for Resistance

lkwd jj 20:20 GMT January 31, 2011
Egypt - into February

wsj had article that studies were conducted on non economic news effect on mkts and it was minimal damage to s&p. dont know how much money id put on that horse, but there doesnt seem to be panic out there. in a different video the spin was that it seems to be a inside egypt turmoil with no denouncing of the us or israeli flag burnings. havent heard that israeli arabs were sympathizing publicly either. lets hope and pray things get resolved sooner than later.

Syd 20:16 GMT January 31, 2011
Egypt and Tunisia usher in the new era of global food revolutions
Reply   
Political risk has returned with a vengeance. The first food revolutions of our Malthusian era have exposed the weak grip of authoritarian regimes in poor countries that import grain, whether in North Africa today or parts of Asia tomorrow.
If you insist on joining the emerging market party at this stage of the agflation blow-off, avoid countries with an accelerating gap between rich and poor. Cairo’s EGX stock index has dropped 20pc in nine trading sessions.
Events have moved briskly since a Tunisian fruit vendor with a handcart set fire to himself six weeks ago, and in doing so lit the fuse that has detonated Egypt and threatens to topple the political order of the Maghreb, Yemen, and beyond.
The surge in global food prices since the summer – since Ben Bernanke signalled a fresh dollar blitz, as it happens – is not the underlying cause of Arab revolt, any more than bad harvests in 1788 were the cause of the French Revolution.
LINK

YVR MAXXIM 20:16 GMT January 31, 2011
gbp.usd

(PSYWAR)The Thirty Six Strategies are Tactics Used in Psychological Warfare.

lkwd jj 20:15 GMT January 31, 2011
Egypt - into February

purk have the egyptians smoke some pot and all's well that ends well.

Israel dil 20:13 GMT January 31, 2011
Egypt - into February
Reply   
what if the situation in Egypt stays unclear for the next month or even longer? which risks and advantages traders face in case the situation stay as the last week for longer period?

Israel dil 20:10 GMT January 31, 2011
gbp.usd

Purk, in Hebrew with pot you are coming near by VOLVO :-)
JJ, will you explain Purk why pot comes almost to VOLVO when free translating?

Israel dil 20:04 GMT January 31, 2011
gbp.usd

JJ

just asked the knight Purk to stop using the Sir of sears :-)

Lahore FM 20:01 GMT January 31, 2011
-- Trade Ideas --

Buy USDCHF
Entry: 0.9440 Target: Stop: 0.9390

long here.earlier stopped for minus 58.

lkwd jj 19:55 GMT January 31, 2011
gbp.usd

pot as in a cooking untensil.

Hillegom Purk 19:53 GMT January 31, 2011
gbp.usd

And what means pot? dope or ....

lkwd jj 19:49 GMT January 31, 2011
gbp.usd

dil you are pronouncing the word wrong. more like surf but without the f at end . the word for pot would be sear.

Israel dil 19:27 GMT January 31, 2011
gbp.usd

Purk the knight, cut the sir as in Hebrew it means pot :-)


GVI Forex Blog 19:24 GMT January 31, 2011 Reply   
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: AUD remains inside a 0.9800-1.0000 range which started on 12 January and looks like a bearish continuation pattern, but there are few clues otherwise.

Forex - Morning Report (Westpac)

nyc bankall 19:21 GMT January 31, 2011
eur/$ & aud/$

Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3705 Target: 1.3465 Stop: 1.3795

eur/$: Stop Profit 1.3665 hit.
Will then be looking to buy 1.3465 and 1.3415 Stop 1.3350

Hillegom Purk 19:20 GMT January 31, 2011
-- Trade Ideas --

Thanks Fa... already thought that you could sell at higher prices.... hehhehehehehe.....

Hillegom Purk 19:19 GMT January 31, 2011
gbp.usd

Dil, Sir, I am long usd/jpy already from last year somewhere in june/ july, i can not check when they are taken, well i can but than i will have to look and i am lazy. I will stay long forever on this one and will do that until intrest will get higher, because now i pay zilch...
I counted a few and think i already did 50-70 trades since june/july, but keeping the best for later. My average wiggles and dazzles....
Just today i did a few because at some point the longs are safe.
Cheers.

Lahore FM 19:16 GMT January 31, 2011
-- Trade Ideas --

Sell Crude
Entry: 92.42* Target: Stop: 93.25*

sorry gentlemen i was looking at chart more clsoely while writing the post. sold clh1 at 92.42 with sl at 93.25.small size.

Israel dil 19:12 GMT January 31, 2011
gbp.usd

clear purk, so I cannot even imagine you go USD/JPY long. but patience will bring it +84

Israel dil 19:07 GMT January 31, 2011
-- Trade Ideas --

FM, you mean $10 more, right?

Hillegom Purk 19:07 GMT January 31, 2011
-- Trade Ideas --

you mean 92 sir FM?

Lahore FM 19:03 GMT January 31, 2011
-- Trade Ideas --

Sell Crude
Entry: 82.42 Target: Stop: 83.25

sold small for an open target.

Hillegom Purk 18:57 GMT January 31, 2011
gbp.usd

Yes sir, Dil sir, but err, they are already closed at 16015... i am not the patient (or am i a patient) guy. Ochocinco maybe, not me.

Israel dil 18:47 GMT January 31, 2011
gbp.usd

Purk, try to be patient with some of your cable shorts. it mat extend the move down quick and wild.

to dr unken katt 18:38 GMT January 31, 2011
gbp.usd

euro is short , , such breakout is always classic signal
the trend changes , 8hr and 4hr studies show short

Ind! Rafe... 18:34 GMT January 31, 2011
gbp.usd

to dr unken katt 18:31 GMT January 31, 2011

Focus on trend kaat san,

to dr unken katt 18:31 GMT January 31, 2011
gbp.usd

Egypt Crisis Stirs Concern for World Economy

to dr unken katt 18:27 GMT January 31, 2011
gbp.usd

The price of Brent crude oil has hit $100 a barrel for the first time since October 2008 on concerns about the political unrest in Egypt

Hillegom Purk 17:55 GMT January 31, 2011
gbp.usd

Well cable is at the end of the days range. We will see how many pips market will return from that range. 1,60000000000000000000000000000000000001 is possible.
all depends on the other usd lovelies....

hk ooozmeeh 17:38 GMT January 31, 2011
GOLD

only a break below the respeted 24 month upward trendline and EMA200 will change my view as my stops were placed below the important supports, gt to all

Europe Theorist 17:33 GMT January 31, 2011
CLOSED OUT @ 131.51
Reply   
GBPJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

Europe Theorist 11:51 GMT January 31, 2011
GBPJPY : Reply
Buy GBPJPY
Entry: 130.60 Target: 131.40 Stop: 130.00

Ochocinco 17:29 GMT January 31, 2011
gbp.usd
Reply   
gbp.usd.....to sell short at 1.6045

London SMS 17:20 GMT January 31, 2011
GULF MONEY FLOW???

It may also account for flows from $ to € given the large French connection. Ironic as the French probably have the most lose in investment terms.

hk ooozmeeh 17:14 GMT January 31, 2011
GOLD
Reply   


gold no congesting below the downward trendline and 20EMA, im still holding on to the positioned long below, moving away and above 200EMA and betting for an imminent break of the trendlie and 20EMA in the coming days tro test the recent highs, gt to all

GVI Forex john 17:13 GMT January 31, 2011
GULF MONEY FLOW???

RF- recall also that during the Iran crisis in the 1970's that the U.S. froze Iranian assets in a number of places. This is another case where flight to safety decisions might be different from ones one ordinarily might make.

Israel dil 17:12 GMT January 31, 2011
GULF MONEY FLOW???

[email protected]

will you spare some money off the pips you just made for an Israeli anti racist organization? :-)

London SMS 17:10 GMT January 31, 2011
GULF MONEY FLOW???

'it' being cable

London SMS 17:09 GMT January 31, 2011
GULF MONEY FLOW???

Very good call RF. It's been flumoxing why it's up here and so far your explanation is the best I've heard. Thanks - probably saved me a few pennies as I was about to sell again.

lkwd jj 17:07 GMT January 31, 2011
GULF MONEY FLOW???

they entrusted palestine with the english. any way to buy/sell egyptian stock index as the mkt there is closed until tue?

GVI Forex Blog 17:00 GMT January 31, 2011 Reply   
January 31 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, February 1:

GVI Forex- Data Outlook for Feb 1, 2011

dc CB 16:59 GMT January 31, 2011
POMO Ponzi
Reply   
In today's episode of "Flip That Bond", the Primary Dealers succeeded in flipping a whopping 26% of the just auctioned off 1% of 1/25/2014 (912828PQ7) back to the Fed

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/flip-bond-continues-primary-dealers-offload-26-just-acquired-3-year-auction-back-fed

Israel dil 16:58 GMT January 31, 2011
cable
Reply   
Sell GBPUSD
Entry: 1.6033/93 Target: 1.5710 Stop: 1.6140

let's see :-)

HK [email protected] 16:57 GMT January 31, 2011
GULF MONEY FLOW???

The Arabs as a rule, trust the British more than the Americans.

GVI Forex john 16:57 GMT January 31, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

CALENDAR
Entry: Target: Stop:

January 31 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, February 1:

  • Far East: CN- NBS PMI, RBA policy Decision.
  • Europe: CH- Retail Sales, PMI, EZ- PMI, Unmemployment, GB- Mfg PMI, M4 Money Supply.
  • North America: US- Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, API Energy.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar


London ex 16:55 GMT January 31, 2011
GULF MONEY FLOW???

RF- Good call. Probably true. Re Gulf flows to U.K. Many have many long standing relationships. When it comes to capital flight, the last thing you are worried about is short-term forex fluctuations.

HK [email protected] 16:53 GMT January 31, 2011
GBP/USD
Reply   
I suspect soon GBP at ~1.6075.

Leaps upward are possible too(excuse my imagination).

Dubai SAS 16:52 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

Mailman - are you still holding your euro shorts ? we might see 1.3635 - 55 before US tom !

Dubai SAS 16:50 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

Richland QC Mailman 16:38 GMT January 31, 2011

Been long this pair since thursday with a stop at 9360 offer, came close today but held ... think i might close this around 9470 - 75 if we get there again !

GVI Forex john 16:50 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

- USDCAD spiking higher on Canadian election fears.
- Canadian PM has named a campaign manager due to threats the opposition will force a vote.

Israel dil 16:48 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?


Saudi exports

HK [email protected] 16:46 GMT January 31, 2011
GULF MONEY FLOW???
Reply   
Is it possible that Gulf and other Arabic state money flows into the U.K(GBP)???

Chicago sc 16:44 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

RF- I don't think so. The U.S. cannot use Saudi sour crude. We cannot refine it. We are much more dependent on Nigeria.

Richland QC Mailman 16:38 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

We are still in awe with usd/chf. It seems always finds a way to resurrect from the tomb.

HK [email protected] 16:36 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

Any threat to Saudi is 100% an American issue.
And a very costly one.

GVI Forex Blog 16:34 GMT January 31, 2011 Reply   
EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) as of Monday (1/31/2011) has recovered much of the losses it suffered on the last day of last week, when the pair made a corrective drop after hitting a high

EUR/USD Recovers From Correction

lkwd jj 16:32 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

how much will it cost the saudis to keep the canal open is the bottom line. they stand to lose the most if it gets shut.

HK [email protected] 16:31 GMT January 31, 2011
GBP/USD
Reply   
GBP?USD ready to add +30pips ~1.6050/60

Fukuoka Rana 16:30 GMT January 31, 2011
jpy

Sell GBPUSD
Entry: 1.6025 Target: open Stop: later

sold small one just a try...........happy day,

Fukuoka Rana 16:26 GMT January 31, 2011
jpy

Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.375pending Target: open Stop: later

shorts closed for 35pips plus.....now leaving orders....happy trade,

London ex 16:26 GMT January 31, 2011
EurUsd and AudUsd trend/outlook?

There went those stops below 1.3700. I was talking about earlier. I would be very nervous about trying to buy here.

dc CB 16:22 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

The Fed purchased $7.72 bln of 2013-2014 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $37.24 bln

for the next 2 days the POMO will be smaller.
Tues - $1-2bln TIPS
Wed- $1.5-2.5 on the Long end 2021-2027
Thurs and Fri back into the 7-8Bln range.

GVI Forex Blog 16:21 GMT January 31, 2011 Reply   
Risk aversion sentiment continued to abate during the early New York morning aided by the better US consumer spending data. The USD, CHF and JPY maintained a soft tone against other European currencies. EUR/USD was hovering around the 1.37 level as ECB sources were said to be worrying that inflation was a real concern,

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update

GVI Forex john 16:20 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

Brent Crude reportedly over $100.

HK [email protected] 16:20 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

As an alternative to the Suez canal I suggest to build a railway to the REDSEA through Israel, which will serve as a airplane carrier carrier .

London ex 16:19 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

We already saw on Friday that the Middle East flight to safety trade favors gold, oil, USD, U.S. treasuries, etc.

Israel dil 16:16 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

how USD negative? how US sole problem?

Suez canal: all overseas and air transportation methods are USD dominated, sky rocketing prices there and Asia starts to suffer, and big time. any other views?

Suez canal is famous for connecting Asia and Europe much faster, how the US suffers solely?

US navy will re-use Suez canal faster than lightening after it gets close, but not the commercial services, so how the USA to suffer solely?

as last hit, will Egyptians use explosives to blow the Suez canal?

HK [email protected] 16:14 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

nyc ws 16:11 GMT January 31, 2011

Right as you said.

So in order to contain the problem to Egypt the US will have to shoulder most of the expenses(additional to the 1.5B$ yearly).

nyc bankall 16:14 GMT January 31, 2011
eur/$ & aud/$

eur/$: long 1.3585 Stop 1.3570 only just managed to survive. Stop now raised to 1.3665.

nyc ws 16:11 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

RF you make it sound like a US problem. There is a risk of political contagion and this is a global problem if it spreads. This has forex market implications.

Israel dil 16:08 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

John, it gets very interesting:

- Mohamed Ghanem, one of the leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, calls Egypt to stop pumping gas to Israel and prepare the Egyptian army for a war with it’s eastern neighbor.

- CAIRO—Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood's agreement to back the secular, liberal opposition leader Mohamed ElBaradei as lead spokesman for the country's opposition groups in reform negotiations suggests the group's once sidelined moderate wing is regaining strength

USA calls and names Mohamed ElBaradei as the one to bring democracy in Egypt and the same time your read such agenda running in the background. let's see the world reacting to closure of the Suez canal and who will get harmed from it fast and directly.

HK [email protected] 16:04 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

MB was blessed by The Muslim Brotherhood.

This person can't even speak in Egyptian Arabic.

Once the Muslim brotherhood will gain power through him, they will close the Suez canal for the American navy and the defence of the Gulf may even collapse.

The US has no choice at this moment, but to stream massive and costly support for Mubarak.

Thus dollar negative!!!

Chicago sc 16:01 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

Another test of 1.3700 looming?

GVI Forex john 15:56 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

- MB says it rejects new Egyptian government CNBC.
- EURUSD slips modestly.

London SMS 15:56 GMT January 31, 2011
Sold March Crude

Stopped at a 89.20 profit of + 70 for 1/3rd and + 30 for 2/3rd. Also stopped out on my small short cable @ 1.6020 for - 97pips so made 3 all in all. Whoopee do.

Ind! Rafe... 15:53 GMT January 31, 2011
EURUSD
Reply   
EURUSD : - Trend is up for the interim but don't be surprised by swift down moves later on in this week.

Weekly support lies at 13547,{13574}, 13600, 13653.

Weekly resistance lies at 13756, {13783}, 13809, 13862.

Cambridge Joe 15:49 GMT January 31, 2011
??
Reply   
Kal// you were right about cable from Friday morning..

Do you have cable short now... ish.... ?
I have it more or less capped @ 3 devs..

TIA. Joe

kl fs 15:49 GMT January 31, 2011
MARKET TALKS

very true [email protected], US is digging its own graveyard
time to go to 0.85 usdchf and 75 usdjpy

HK [email protected] 15:44 GMT January 31, 2011
MARKET TALKS
Reply   
Euro is on the way to break above 1.3800, as the situation in Egypt looks like an American issue to solve.

It is better Obama has prepared big shipments of food for Egypt and print more money to support Mubarak.

Looks like this issue will be too much US costly.

In this case the USD may not be a safe haven.

London ex 15:41 GMT January 31, 2011
EurUsd and AudUsd trend/outlook?

I'm not saying by any means that I caught this move, but ?I was at least cautious enough to let the EURUSD go. I heard earlier that sovereign names had been buying EURUSD "cheap". I have not heard if they were still in. I don't think it is "cheap" anymore. In any case you have to assume that they will be in again on the next USD upward blip. For now I just sit back and watch. I still suspect that 1.3700 is the level to watch for the balance of the session. Furthermore, there is a good chance that a large number of resting sell stops must have accumulated from 1.3690 to 1.3700. I don't this this Middle East situation has run its course.

Richmond Hills 15:27 GMT January 31, 2011
EUR1.2777
Reply   
another day to kill USD bull?

GVI Forex Blog 15:25 GMT January 31, 2011 Reply   
Dealers shake off Egypt and chase EUR higher Eurozone inflation above target Chinese banks becoming more conservative Will crude prices move higher or lower?

Forex Market Commentary and Analysis (31 January 2011)

Fukuoka Rana 15:25 GMT January 31, 2011
jpy
Reply   
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.373 Target: open Stop: later

sold..............happy day,

GVI Forex john 15:13 GMT January 31, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Any factual posts relative to the Middle East situation that could impact the forex markets are still welcome on the Forex Forum. However any political debates that these might generate belong on the Political Forum. Thanks to all!

GVI Forex john 15:10 GMT January 31, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

Political Discussion has been moved over to the Political Forum. Feel free to carry on over there.

dc CB 15:03 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

now in the POMO hour
Fed will purchase $6-$8B worth of 2013/2014 maturities

GVI Forex john 14:55 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

- Regional Chicago PMI considerably stronger than expected. Highest reading since July 1988. U.S. January national manufacturing PMI is due on Tuesday.
- EURUSD trying to establish support at the 1.3700 line. EUR broadly higher on its major crosses.
- Commodities are mixed with crude and gold weaker. Silver and Nat Gas are up.

GVI Forex john 14:45 GMT January 31, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

-- ALERT --


U.S. January Chicago PMI
68.8 vs. 65.5 est. 66.8 previous





TTN: Special Offer- News on Your Screen

GVI Forex john 14:42 GMT January 31, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

UPDATED Global-View IMM (CME) Futures Swap Points. G-V Forex Spot to Futures Calculator (and back).

Israel dil 14:32 GMT January 31, 2011
Forget about Egypt it is no more Fx issue.

Egyptian troops in Alexandria start shooting the crowds directly.

GVI Forex Blog 14:29 GMT January 31, 2011 Reply   

Dollar Extending Losses Against Most Majors

London SMS 14:22 GMT January 31, 2011
maybe...

Sold small again @ 1.5923
-----------
Sell GBPUSD
Entry: 1.5883 Target: 1.55 Stop: 1.5930

Might double up if it goes higher. Just sold small here.

London SMS 14:21 GMT January 31, 2011
Sold March Crude

88.80 bght 1/3rd back - moved sl down to 89.20
------------
Sell Crude
Entry: 89.50 Target: 86 Stop: 90.20

Mosc Va 14:19 GMT January 31, 2011
bet arrange
Reply   
Can onyone guess - how does broker arranges his accepted bets in order to keep balance and know when to buy or sell from outside (from another brokers)?

Israel dil 14:08 GMT January 31, 2011
Forget about Egypt it is no more Fx issue.

"Yesterday Hussein Salem and his family reportedly fled from Egypt as protests across the country continued to escalate. Today Salem was apprehended in Dubai with $500 million in cash.

Hussein is a partner in the East Mediterranean Gas Company with Yosef Maiman, an Israeli. Egypt supplies half of Israel’s natural gas needs and with the serious threat of a new government in Egypt that is not sympathetic toward Israel, the gas supply is in jeopardy. Salem is in control of 28% of the company."

bringing Israel into picture so directly as Mubarak's dude and $500m in cash too, so it's time out. by the way, $500m are almost 2% of Egypt's national foreign currency reserves.

Kaunas DP 13:48 GMT January 31, 2011
sold USD/CHF

Kaunas DP 08:23 GMT January 31, 2011
sold USD/CHF: Reply
0.9419; SL 0.9450; TP 0.9390

_ _ _ _

closed for +10

GVI Forex john 13:44 GMT January 31, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support



If the Fed is targeting Core PCE then there is absolutely no pressure for higher rates...

HK [email protected] 13:43 GMT January 31, 2011
Forget about Egypt it is no more Fx issue.
Reply   
Two Egyptian Byzantine political forces got entangled with each other, and the poor Egyptian public(hoping for better life), with long USD traders who trade the news(in a hope for better profits too) who got screwed in the middle.

Dubai SAS 13:41 GMT January 31, 2011
Buy USD
Reply   
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3724 Target: Open Stop: 1.3750

Sold with a tight stop !

GVI Forex john 13:39 GMT January 31, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

-- ALERT --


Canada November GDP
m/m +0.3% vs. +0.3% est. +0.2






TTN: Special Offer- News on Your Screen

GVI Forex john 13:35 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

- U.S. data in line

GVI Forex john 13:34 GMT January 31, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

-- ALERT --



U.S. December
Personal Income m/m 0.4% vs. +0.4% est. +0.3% previous
Core PCE y/y +0.7% vs. +0.8% est. +0.8%




TTN: Special Offer- News on Your Screen

GVI Forex john 13:27 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

- Both Personal Income and Core PCE data due shortly.
- Personal income gives us a handle on potential spending by consumers.
- Core PCE is inflation is said to be the number the Fed targets.

Lahore FM 13:20 GMT January 31, 2011
-- Trade Ideas --

Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3700 Target: Stop: 1.3735

sold.

Lahore FM 13:18 GMT January 31, 2011
-- Trade Ideas --

Buy EURJPY
Entry: 111.74 Target: Stop: 110

closed half of the long 111.74 at 112.45 now.stops stay and might reload the half part if it goes lower again.

Israel dil 13:15 GMT January 31, 2011
eurusd

European stocks price action suggest at least a test of the latest capped region: 1.3750

Richland QC Mailman 13:00 GMT January 31, 2011
eurusd

Shortie euro 1.3700.

GVI Forex john 12:46 GMT January 31, 2011


WHAT'S THE BUZZ?
Entry: Target: Stop:

CALENDAR: North America: CA- GDP, PPI. US- Personal Income, Core PCE inflation, Chicago PMI.

  • Political instability in Egypt trumping other factors at the moment. It is unclear where things are headed generally in the region. 

  • Could be resolved in a number of days or weeks. Political events often don't have the staying power of economic developments.

  • Month-end period for institutions generating some position squaring.

  • Very weak German December retail sales earlier, but flash EZ HICP (CPI) above target. ECB targets HICP. 

  • EURUSD pivot point =1.3645 for Monday. Support  #1 =1.3545; Resistance #1 = 1.3707. 

  • Watching flight to safety trades.

  • EURUSD has recovered from Friday close after tumbling early. EUR major crosses are better.



London Mick 12:35 GMT January 31, 2011
EurUsd and AudUsd trend/outlook?

There is also Trichet and the ECB with inflation above target.

GVI Forex Blog 12:34 GMT January 31, 2011 Reply   
The euro rose against the dollar on Monday as above-forecast euro zone inflation kept alive the view that interest rates in the region may rise sooner than previously thought.

FOREX NEWS - Euro rises on above-forecast euro zone inflation

Singapore SGFXTrader 12:29 GMT January 31, 2011
EurUsd and AudUsd trend/outlook?

Thanks blahblah and viies for the sharing =)

I think i am not convince that the break of the 13days streak in Eurusd will end up in positive territory in Europe trading session.

Let's see what happens when US session starts?

Also this week, we got NFP and i wonder how does that play into USD?

atlanta blahblah 12:16 GMT January 31, 2011
EurUsd and AudUsd trend/outlook?

eurusd is near a barrier option at 1.3725; just like the one on friday. plus theres sovereign bids at somewhere below 1.36.

audusd bids at 0.985 range and offers from .925 to .950

GVI Forex john 12:13 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

- We heard a major tanker company indicate a little while ago that traffic through the Suez Canal has been running normally.

London ex 12:07 GMT January 31, 2011
EurUsd and AudUsd trend/outlook?

SGFXTrader- Ive been mulling over the same question all day in the EUR. Some might disagree with me, but I think the EUR has bounced because there have not been any WORSE headlines over the weekend from the Middle East. Markets move on the unexpected.

Risk remains the next headline if there is one. Makes for cautious trading?

GVI Forex Jay 12:04 GMT January 31, 2011
Tech Talk



12:00 GMT (Global-view.com) January 31 - Political markets are always difficult as they tend to be headline driven so no surprise to see cautious trading today. As noted, the 100 hour mva, a key indicator on the way up and on Friday when it broke down, comes in at 1.3675 currently - (tested - see chart - green line). A move back above it would be needed to put 1.37 in play again. Upisde is limited while below it. High so far has been 1.3676. Note 1.37 printed 4 days in a row coming into today.

Using FIBOS for 1.3759-1.3570,
1.3687 = 61.8% (also blocks exposing 1.37 again)

On the downside, not much worth noting until the 1.3570 low and given the move has been driven by liquidations, the most recent low is most significant.

On risk crosses, as noted last night, use eur/chf 1.28 and eur/jpy 112 as risk sentiment indicators (both current above, indicating some easing in risk aversion).

tallinn viies 12:01 GMT January 31, 2011
eurusd
Reply   
Singapore SGFXTrader 11:51 GMT - just other assests much higher. during the last 3 months euro has been stanbding at the same place when all other moved higher.
for example oil, gold, shares.
also euro interest rates compared to dollar rates

Europe Theorist 11:51 GMT January 31, 2011
GBPJPY
Reply   
Buy GBPJPY
Entry: 130.60 Target: 131.40 Stop: 130.00

BUY GBPJPY

Singapore SGFXTrader 11:51 GMT January 31, 2011
EurUsd and AudUsd trend/outlook?
Reply   
Dear Bro/Sis,

Can ask why is

1) Eurusd going up like mad bull?

2) Audusd in positive territory?


Many thanks in advance

HK REVDAX 11:13 GMT January 31, 2011
sold USD/CHF

DP//I think ur stop on your short $/CHF is too low.

GVI Forex Blog 11:11 GMT January 31, 2011 Reply   
The unrest in Egypt remained the focus of the FX markets with some of the safe-haven flows ebbing after a Suez Canal official commented that shipping traffic was not disrupted and that the Canal Zone was secured. (About 8% of the world's sea-borne trade passes through the canal).

TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Risk aversion flows ebb as Suez Canal shipping traffic unaffected by Egyptian unrest; EU inflation remains above ECB target

London SMS 11:06 GMT January 31, 2011
maybe...

Sell GBPUSD
Entry: 1.5883 Target: 1.55 Stop: 1.5930

Might double up if it goes higher. Just sold small here.

GVI Forex Blog 11:05 GMT January 31, 2011 Reply   
11:00 GMT (Global-View.com) January 31- The forex market is still looking for direction early Monday after many fled to the sidelines Friday and into many of the traditional safe haven plays

Daily GVI Forex Forex View- Watching Egypt

GVI Forex john 11:01 GMT January 31, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support



CHART- Earlier: Japanese PMI turns positive (above 50)...

GVI Forex Blog 10:56 GMT January 31, 2011 Reply   
Despite the World Economic Forum, the State of the Union address and the FOMC announcement, it was the UK that provided most shockwaves to markets last week with the startling collapse in Q4 economic activity, followed by news that the MPC nest contained another hawk.

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - Markets braced for payrolls and PMIs

Toronto MDunleavy 10:36 GMT January 31, 2011
Sell AUDSEK
Reply   


Sell OTHER
Entry: 6.5000 Target: 6.3600 Stop: 6.5260

*AUDSEK outlook.( AUDSEK = AUDUSD X USDSEK )
*Rally from 6.2635 to 6.4903. Up 2% in one day!
*It was last Friday 28 January. Today rally was
continued until 6.5018.
*In the future, we will probably see correction,
pullback, consolidation in this range.
=>>>docs.google.com/View?id=dg3m7zmf_28g4bmvtgt

London SMS 10:32 GMT January 31, 2011
maybe...

With you on that Joe. Cable is way to high but as ever - it's all in the timin.....

Cambridge Joe 10:29 GMT January 31, 2011
maybe...
Reply   
I have gbpusd for a small south from 5882
only my impression.... caution required.

Gen dk 10:23 GMT January 31, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex john 10:17 GMT January 31, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support



ECONOMIC DATA CHART
Entry: Target: Stop:

CHART: flash HICP running above target...

GVI Forex john 10:04 GMT January 31, 2011
What's the buzz?

- EZ HICP running above target. At some point the ECB will have to respond unless the increase is temporary. EURUSD is well above its lows of the day and the EUR is up on its major crosses.

GVI Forex john 10:00 GMT January 31, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

-- ALERT --



EZ HICP January flash (CPI)
y/y 2.4% vs. +2.4% est. +2.2%





TTN: Special Offer- News on Your Screen

Sydney M 09:46 GMT January 31, 2011
nuts

I thought WSJ is now own by Rupert and did he not have lots of trouble trying to make money China? The government there would not have a bar of his poorly written news that is design firstly to line his and shareholder pockets. They don’t care what they print as long as people buy the papers and the lawsuits don’t cost them too much. They don’t print the WSJ so we and other traders can make money from trading its news content. You should subscribe to a proper news services like the ones here.

Hong Kong 09:21 GMT January 31, 2011
GBP/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader
Reply   
GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

INTRA-DAY GBP/USD: 1.5853

Last Update At 31 Jan 2011 09:10 GMT

Although cable has edged higher after early
retreat fm 1.5885 to 1.5832, as this move signals
recovery fm 1.5821 (Asia) has ended, downside bias
remains for near term 'erratic' fall fm 1.5991 to
re-test 1.5821, the later to 1.5796/00.

Hold short with stop as indicated n only abv
said res wud risk stronger gain to 1.5901/06.

Range Forecast
1.5835 / 1.5860

Resistance/Support
R: 1.5885/1.5906/1.5938
S: 1.5821/1.5796/1.5769

http://www.acetraderfx.com

Israel dil 09:21 GMT January 31, 2011
nuts

sure SYD, to get an idea how nuts it is, then taking a look at Wall Street Journal (the news source of your link) chain of holdings will tell how "reliable" news sources currently are. it is clear the some media sources hold anti-China bias. why?

Wall Street Journal: people and financial background

List of assets owned by News Corporation

tokyo ginko 09:16 GMT January 31, 2011
nuts

what better time to push usd/jpy to 85 today?

Syd 09:13 GMT January 31, 2011
nuts
Reply   
Israel dil 09:00 GMT didnt read it that way :-)) anyway the world is nuts at the moment :-)

Israel dil 09:00 GMT January 31, 2011
China Watch: The Costs of Going Home, China the Next Egypt?

SYD, the nuts was about the article linked and has nothing to with you. just in case someone understood wrong :-)

Israel dil 08:52 GMT January 31, 2011
China Watch: The Costs of Going Home, China the Next Egypt?

nuts, nothing is going to happen in China if the Chinese rulers are not willing it to happen, markets up or down included. nature disasters not included :-)

London SMS 08:52 GMT January 31, 2011
Sold March Crude
Reply   
Sell Crude
Entry: 89.50 Target: 86 Stop: 90.20

JP Morgan call for $80 on Brent. Not that that's the reason I've sol (too soon it seems) but I think we'll see a reversal of last week's spike.

Syd 08:46 GMT January 31, 2011
China Watch: The Costs of Going Home, China the Next Egypt?
Reply   
China Watch: The Costs of Going Home, China the Next Egypt?
A list of what the Wall Street Journal’s reporters in China are reading and watching online, periodically updated throughout the day. http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2011/01/31/china-watch-the-costs-of-going-home-china-the-next-egypt/

Hong Kong 08:31 GMT January 31, 2011
Support, Resistance and Range Forecast - AceTrader
Reply   
INTRA-DAY USD/JPY:

Last Update At 31 Jan 2011 06:50 GMT

Range Forecast
81.95 / 82.20

Resistance/Support
R: 82.47 / 82.57 / 82.71
S: 81.77 / 81.68 / 81.28

-------------------------

INTRA-DAY EUR/USD:

Last Update At 31 Jan 2011 08:09 GMT

Range Forecast
1.3600 / 1.3625

Resistance/Support
R: 1.3637/1.3678/1.3678
S: 1.3570/1.3540/1.3504

--------------------------

INTRA-DAY USD/CHF:

Last Update At 31 Jan 2011 08:19 GMT

Range Forecast
0.9405 / 0.9430

Resistance/Support
R: 0.9457/0.9482/0.9505
S: 0.9402/0.9389/0.9364

---------------------------

INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:

Last Update At 31 Jan 2011 08:21 GMT

Range Forecast
1.5850 / 1.5880

Resistance/Support
R: 1.5885/1.5906/1.5938
S: 1.5821/1.5796/1.5769

http://www.acetraderfx.com

Kaunas DP 08:23 GMT January 31, 2011
sold USD/CHF
Reply   
0.9419; SL 0.9450; TP 0.9390

Syd 07:39 GMT January 31, 2011
Moody's Downgrades Egypt To Ba2 From Ba1
Reply   
Moody's Downgrades Egypt To Ba2, Negative Outlook

GVI Forex Blog 07:36 GMT January 31, 2011 Reply   
TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Early risk aversion amid rising geopolitical turmoil in Africa tempered by improving economic data in Japan

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Early risk aversion amid rising geopolitical turmoil in Africa tempered by improving economic data in Japan

Syd 07:13 GMT January 31, 2011
Underground world hints at China’s coming crisis
Reply   
To understand how far ordinary Chinese have been priced out of their country’s property market, you need to look not upwards at the Beijing’s shimmering high-rise skyline, but down, far below the bustling streets where nearly 20m people live and work.
In Beijing, where the average monthly salary is 4,000 yuan, the average person would take 50 years to buy an average apartment, assuming they saved every penny they earned
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8291626/Underground-world-hints-at-Chinas-coming-crisis.html

Syd 07:07 GMT January 31, 2011
Egypt and Tunisia usher in the new era of global food revolutions
Reply   
Political risk has returned with a vengeance. The first food revolutions of our Malthusian era have exposed the weak grip of authoritarian regimes in poor countries that import grain, whether in North Africa today or parts of Asia tomorrow.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritcha
rd/8291470/Egypt-and-Tunisia-usher-in-the-new-era-of-global-food-revolutions.html

GVI Forex john 07:02 GMT January 31, 2011
GVI Forex Trading Support

-- ALERT --



German December Real Retail Sales
m/m -0.3% vs. +2.0% est. -1.9%r prev
y/y -1.3%% vs. +1.1% est. +2.6%r







TTN: Special Offer- News on Your Screen

Syd 06:59 GMT January 31, 2011
Australian Business Weighs Impact Of Mideast Turmoil
Reply   

DJ--The Middle East is a vital trading partner for Australia, which exported almost US$6 billion worth of goods to the region including cars, gold, wheat and livestock in the last fiscal year, according to the Department of Foreign Affairs & Trade. Australia depends on the Middle East for oil, importing more than US$2 billion worth of crude over the same period, ministry figures show. Much attention is focused on the security of the Suez canal, a vital trading route that has linked Australia with export markets in Europe since it first opened in 1869. Apart from oil, about 8% of the world's sea-borne trade passes through the canal, according to Egyptian government figures.

Worry that disruption could spread across the region and into the Gulf states helped push the Australian dollar to its lowest point against Japanese yen since Dec. 2 in Monday trading. The currency, known as the Aussie, was changing hands midday in Sydney at US$0.9941 after an afternoon bounce, though the pair had been at parity less than a week ago. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are two of Australia's largest trading partners amongst Gulf states, according to official figures.

"The links between Australia and that region are more concentrated on the Arab states like Saudi Arabia and the Emirates," said Brian Redican, senior economist with Australian investment bank Macquarie in Sydney. "If the unrest we see in northern Africa does spread east, you'll see a direct impact on Australia."

Prime Minister Julia Gillard has so far avoided discussing the wider implications of the unrest in Egypt but urged the 800 or so Australians living in the country to leave on Monday. The Department of Foreign Affairs & Trade has warned Australians not to travel to Egypt amid the turmoil. As many as 60,000 Australians are thought to live and work in the Middle East, including Turkey, according to official figures.

Hong Kong 06:20 GMT January 31, 2011
EUR/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader
Reply   
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK

Last Update At 31 Jan 2011 04:38 GMT

Rate : 1.3610

Although euro's intra-day recovery fm 1.3570 sug
gests the decline fm last week's high at 1.3760 has
made a minor low there n sideways trading is seen
ahead of European opening, as long as 1.3636 holds,
re-test of 1.3570 is likely, then later twd 1.3540.

Trade fm short side, stop as indicated, abv may
risk stronger retracement to 1.3660/70.

Range Forecast
1.3585 / 1.3615

Resistance/Support
R: 1.3622/1.3636/1.3678
S: 1.3570/1.3540/1.3504

http://www.acetraderfx.com

Syd 06:04 GMT January 31, 2011
Tax
Reply   
Sydney GE 05:57 its blatant ,Swan needs the concrete boots and Gillard the kiss on the cheek

Syd 06:01 GMT January 31, 2011
Flood rebuilding levy will backfire: RBA director Warwick McKibbin
Reply   
RESERVE Bank board member Warwick McKibbin has slammed as political opportunism the government's planned hike to the Medicare levy to pay its $5 billion share of Queensland's repair bill, warning that the tax increase could deliver another kick to an economy already hit by the floods.
LINK

The expected rise in the Medicare levy from 1.5 to 2 per cent, if agreed, would hit middle-income earners the hardest, wiping out the gains made from the 2010-11 tax cuts for people earning between $60,000 and $100,000.
The cost of the Queensland floods would come to $250 annually for a person on $50,000 and $500 for someone on $100,000.
what the flood levy will cost you

Sydney GE 05:57 GMT January 31, 2011
fx

good to see Swanny embracing the independence of the central bank

Syd 05:45 GMT January 31, 2011
fx
Reply   
Charter flights to carry thousands of Americans out of Egypt
Washington (CNN) -- Charter flights that begin Monday will ferry the first of thousands of Americans away from the escalating crisis in Egypt, the State Department said.

EUR Set To Fall Further On Egyptian Turmoil
Due to increasing worries that political turmoil in Egypt may spread to other oil-producing Arabian neighbors, which would damage the global supply of crude oil, the EUR is likely to suffer a further downturn in European trading hours, says Kenichiro Ikezawa, a senior fund manager at Daiwa SB Investments. The EUR/USD may fall to 1.3400 from its current level of 1.3609

Australia's Treasurer Wayne Swan on Monday hinted that a shake-up of the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy-making board may be in prospect, with academic Warwick McKibbin not required after his current second term expires in July.
The comments come after McKibbin last week attacked the government's plan to increase tax to pay for the rebuilding of infrastructure and housing in Queensland state after recent widespread flooding. McKibbin told a number of media outlets the tax was politically inspired. Without the new impost, the government's broader promise of returning the budget to surplus by 2012-13 is unlikely to be met. McKibbin was also a long-term critic of the Labor government's fiscal stimulus response to the global financial crisis, arguing it was excessive while adding the government should have withdrawn the new spending a lot faster than has been the case.

This is typical of Labor Swan and Gillard , if you dont like what they are saying to shut them up eliminate them - The mafia it would be a kiss on the cheek and some new concrete shoes

Syd 05:21 GMT January 31, 2011
Goldman Sachs says closed long euro/dollar position
Reply   
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said in a research note on Friday it closed its long euro/dollar position because a "lack of additional catalysts" has kept the currency pair range bound for now.In addition, it said the "risk reward (was) more symmetric compared to when we initiated our recommendation." As a result Goldman said it decided to take profit from its gains and look for better opportunities to express its positive view on the euro zone.
On January 13, U.S. investment bank had recommended going long the euro on the view that the market had been too "skeptical" about the euro zone's willingness to address its sovereign debt problems.



Norfolk Jake 04:35 GMT January 31, 2011
EUR trending up

Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.36 Target: 1.3675 Stop: 1.3550

Looks like it's gonna happen sooner than 2 days.

GVI Forex Blog 04:07 GMT January 31, 2011 Reply   
Profit-taking hit the Dow (11823.70, 1.39%) on Friday after the US GDP came in lower than expected, at 3.25%.

Morning Briefing : 31-Jan-2011 -0336 GMT

Hong Kong 03:28 GMT January 31, 2011
AUD/USD Intra-day signal by AceTrader
Reply   
AUDUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: AUD/USD

AUD/USD : 0.9917

Last Update At 31 Jan 2011 02:57 GMT

Despite initial euro-led resumption of recent
'erratic' fall fm last Mon's high of 1.0023 to 0.98
66 at Asian opening, intra-day rebound suggests a
temp. low is in place n recovery twd 0.9945/48 can
not be ruled out b4 prospect of another fall later.

For st trade, turn long on dips for this move n
only below 0.9876/80 wud risk re-test of 0.9866.

Range Forecast
0.9900 / 0.9930

Resistance/Support
R: 0.9927/0.9948/0.9988
S: 0.9866/0.9832/0.9803

http://www.acetraderfx.com

to dr unken katt 03:21 GMT January 31, 2011
EUR trending up

jake hold your breath , you hav no idea

Nofolk Jake 03:10 GMT January 31, 2011
EUR trending up
Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.36 Target: 1.3675 Stop: 1.3550

It will take at most two days to fulfill this order. After the correction EUR trend is up again.

Syd 03:00 GMT January 31, 2011
Federal Reserve is unlikely to launch a third round of its quantitative easing program
Reply   
The Federal Reserve is unlikely to launch a third round of its quantitative easing program, but the U.S will maintain expansionary monetary and fiscal policies this year, a central bank researcher said Monday in the central bank-backed Financial News.

The recovery of the U.S. economy is likely to accelerate in 2011 with a growth rate above 3%, Wang Yu, deputy director of the People's Bank of China's research bureau
www.financialnews.com.cn

shanghai bc 02:38 GMT January 31, 2011
China Microblogs Block Chinese Word for 'Egypt'


The most important things the Chinese watch these days are air tickets,train tickest and buss tickets markets for travel to and from their home towns for the new year's celebration..Some folks have a weird imagination in their blurred eyes :)

Syd 02:23 GMT January 31, 2011
China Microblogs Block Chinese Word for 'Egypt'
Reply   
China blocked the word "Egypt" from micro-blog searches in a sign that the Chinese government is concerned that protests calling for political reform in the country could spill into China's internet space.
China says the Internet is free and open for its 450 million users, but the government blocks numerous social networking sites like Twitter, Flickr, Facebook and YouTube, which have been used to mobilize protests around the world.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/4598895/China-blocks-Egypt-from-searches


Chinese are closely watching the streets of Cairo and Alexandria

Egypt Is the Next Tunisia. What Is the Next Egypt?
The new wave of color revolutions has broken through Tunisia and swept into Egypt this year,” states The Global Times, a Chinese Communist Party newspaper, in an editorial released today. “Western-style democracy appears to be spreading, yet the affected countries are not comparable with Western society—these new revolutions are more controversial than those that happened in East Europe after the Cold War.”

Now that Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution has inspired Egyptians, autocrats in the region nervously watch for signs of unrest in their own countries. Most observers assume that the next Egypt is Yemen, Jordan, or Saudi Arabia. Yet as the Global Times editorial indicates, Middle Eastern despots are not the only ones worried. Beijing’s leaders are concerned that 1.3 billion enraged souls will rise up and tear down the People’s Republic of China.

China’s communists have every right to be concerned. In a world connected by optic fiber, revolutionary fervor not only crosses from one country to the next but from one continent to another. That is undoubtedly the reason why Chinese netizens cannot search the characters for “Egypt” on some Mainland sites and the authorities are censoring news of the distant upheaval. Beijing’s officials know that every resentment felt by Tunisians and Egyptians is shared by those they rule.
So it’s not surprising the Chinese are closely watching the streets of Cairo and Alexandria.

http://blogs.forbes.com/gordonchang/2011/01/30/egypt-is-the-next-tunisia-what-is-the-next-egypt/

Australia core inflation gauge cools, rates seen on hold
SYDNEY, Jan 31 (Reuters) - A private gauge of Australian consumer prices showed underlying inflation slowed in January even as flood damage sent some food costs surging, adding to the case against a rise in interest rates anytime soon.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/31/australia-economy-idUSL3E7CV01620110131


Syd 01:52 GMT January 31, 2011
trouble at mill lad !!
Reply   
JULIA Gillard and her chief of staff, Amanda Lampe, have parted ways after months of rumblings over the inner workings of the Prime Minister's office

Syd 01:31 GMT January 31, 2011
fx
Reply   
Reuters January 30 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings says that the ratings Outlook for banks in the Asia-Pacific region is Stable, in a report published today
Where Fitch has somewhat cautious views are on the banks in China and Vietnam, notwithstanding the broader sector rating Outlook for the former currently being Stable. This is because their moderating profitability and relentless growth are pressuring capital, thereby weakening their credit profiles; a challenge which is reflected in their low Individual Ratings.

Key risks common to the region and its banks are a relapse in the global recovery, and/or a sharp slowdown in China. In addition to hurting trade, these developments would likely weaken the sentiment-sensitive property sector, and in turn negatively affect banks, given their real estate loan exposures. Such risk appears highest in Australia, China, Hong Kong and Singapore, where home prices have risen appreciably in recent years, although low interest rates and unemployment levels are mitigating factors for now.

Gillard's fraught year of clinging to power
Before, as one insider put it, ''Keneally committed suicide'', she had done well enough to shore up the party to the point is was confident of retaining about 30 to 35 seats, enough to give it a shot at getting back into government after one term in opposition.The Premier's populist criticism of the flood levy of the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, on Friday, saying it should be recalibrated to take into account the high cost of living in Sydney, makes clear that Keneally will do whatever to limit the size of the loss coming her way on March 26
www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/gillards-fraught-year-of-clinging-to-power-20110130-1a9i7.html

HK [email protected] 01:27 GMT January 31, 2011
Egypt this morning
Reply   
The last few days police has disappeared off the street of Cairo, but the secret police was very active in gunning down members of the opposition.

One has to be very innocent to believe that only about 200 were killed.
Under Mubarak style, of taking the opportunity to rid himself from his opponents, the number may be at least over a thousand.

The mute reaction of currencies and gold this morning says something.


Mubarak tells Obama...may you shut up and give me no advices how to manage my country, because you don't know what is Egypt.

It is too hard to fight a sick 82 years old man.

Hong Kong 01:08 GMT January 31, 2011
Daily FX Market Outlook by AceTrader-31-1-2011
Reply   
Market Review - 29/01/2011 01:13 GMT

The greenback and Swiss franc strengthen on Friday as Egypt turmoil increases safe-haven demand

The greenback rose broadly, except versus Japanese yen and Swiss franc on Friday as unrest in Egypt increased safe-haven demand. The dollar index, which measured the performance of the US Dollar against a basket of six other currencies, gained 0.54 percent to 78.148 in late New York trading. Risk aversion put pressure on major stock markets around the globe, Dow Jones Industrial average index dropped by 1.39% or 166 points to 11823, while FTSE 100 index, CAC 40 index, DAX index and Nikkei 225 closed down by 1.40% , 1.41%, 0.74% and 1.13% to 5881, 4002, 7102 and 10360 respectively on Friday.

Protesters demonstrated throughout Egypt, with clashes erupting in central Cairo in unprecedented protests against President Hosni Mubarak’s 30-year rule. Hosni Mubarak imposed a curfew from 6 p.m. to 7 a.m. local time in Egypt from Friday and deployed military (the first time since anti-government protests erupted in Egypt) to monitor a curfew on the streets of Cairo. Stock market in Egypt is closed on Friday after Egypt's benchmark, EGX30, stock index tumbled 11 percent on Thursday, the most since October 2008, leaving it with a two day loss of 16 percent.

Fitch Ratings had revised the rating outlook on the Arab Republic of Egypt to Negative from Stable due to the recent upsurge in political protests and the uncertainty added to the political and economic outlook ahead of September's elections. The agency affirmed Egypt's long-term foreign currency Issuer Default rating (IDR) at 'BB-', long-term local currency at 'BBB-', short-term foreign currency IDR at 'B' and Country Ceiling at 'BB+'.

Safe-haven flows amid worries over escalating protests in Egypt against the government pressured the European currencies and other higher-yielding currencies. Euro nose-dived in Friday's New York session and tumbled by more than one percent against the dollar to a session low of 1.3584 after being capped below Thursday's two-month high of 1.3760. The British pound weakened against the greenback and dropped from 1.5967 to as low as 1.5826 before stabilising, while Australian dollar and kiwi were off from their session highs of 0.9988 and 0.7795 to around 0.9930 and 0.7730 respectively in late New York trading.

Active cross-buying in Japanese yen and Swiss franc on risk aversion pressured the usd/jpy and usd/chf and the pairs dropped from 82.93 to 81.98 and from 0.9472 to 0.9404 respectively on Friday, while their cross-pairs, eur/jpy, aud/jpy, gbp/jpy and eur/chf tumbled from 113.90 to 111.51, from 82.26 to 81.33, from 132.11 to 129.82 and from 1.2990 to 1.2805 respectively before stabilising due to short covering.

On the data front, U.S. GDP data showed that economy accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2010 as consumer spending climbed by the most in more than four years, U.S. annualised GDP rose 3.2% in Q4 compared to a grow of 2.6% in previous quarter but falling short against the consensus forecast of 3.6%. University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment decreased to 74.2 from 74.5 in December, fell less than median forecast of 73.1 and up from a preliminary figure of 72.7 issued earlier this month.

Economic indicators to be released on next week include:

New Zealand trade balance, imports and exports, Japan industrial production, construction orders and housing starts, German retail sales, eurozone HICP flash, Canada GDP and PPI, and U.S. personal spending, personal income, PCE data and Chicago PMI on Monday;

Australia RBA rate decision, NAB business confidence and house price index, Switzerland retail sales and PMI, German Manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate and unemployment change, eurozone Manufacturing PMI and unemployment, UK Manufacturing PMI and Mortgage approval, and U.S. construction spending and ISM manufacturing on Tuesday;

U.K. BRC shop price index and PMI construction, eurozone PPI data, and U.S. ADP employment on Wednesday;

New Zealand unemployment rate and employment change, Australia building approvals, trade balance, Switzerland trade balance, German Services PMI, eurozone Services PMI and ECB rate decision, U.K. Services PMI, and U.S. Jobless claims, productivity labour cost durable goods data (revision), factory orders and ISM non-manufacturing on Thursday;

Canada unemployment rate and Ivey PMI, and U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings on Friday.

http://www.acetraderfx.com

Syd 01:03 GMT January 31, 2011
Cyclone Yasi warnings
Reply   
Queenslanders are once again preparing for storms and flooding as a tropical cyclone bears down on the state. Tropical Cyclone Anthony - crossed the coast last night between Townsville and Mackay and has since been downgraded, but a much bigger Tropical Cyclone Yasi is forming in the Coral Sea.
http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2011/s3125381.htm

Syd 01:01 GMT January 31, 2011
Australian Private-Sector Credit +0.2% In Dec Vs Nov
Reply   
m/m 0.2% V 0.3% Y/Y: 3.4% V 3.6%

 




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