Syd 23:27 GMT October 1, 2011
Euro
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Rumors are circulating in the twittersphere that the haircut on Greek bonds will move from 21% to 75%.
Syd 22:47 GMT October 1, 2011
Germany 'won't give more to EU bail-out fund'
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AFP - German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble ruled out Germany contributing any more money to the beefed-up EU bail-out fund than the 211 billion euros approved by parliament, in an interview published Saturday.
link
Boston eFX 21:37 GMT October 1, 2011
CHARTING MARKETS: Could That Be A Bottom In The Euro Charts?
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(Dow Jones via eFXnews) While the world is bracing for more bad news on the euro, the charts are hinting at a different possibility: a correction, perhaps as early next week, in the European currency's four-month downtrend against the dollar.
That prospect might seem a long shot given current trading not to mention we're still a ways from the downtrend, which sits at Monday's low of $1.3361, all amid continued political uncertainty and speculation that the European Central Bank might make euro-weakening rate cuts on Thursday. But the key technical point is .....
CHARTING MARKETS: Could That Be A Bottom In The Euro Charts? (Full Story)
GVI Forex john 19:56 GMT October 1, 2011
U.S. Pivot Points
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Week Perspective...
9/30/11 EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD AUDUSD
Last 1.3395 77.07 0.9063 1.5591 1.0482 0.9678
High 1.3689 77.19 0.9142 1.5715 1.0484 0.9985
Low 1.3361 76.21 0.8916 1.5431 1.0139 0.9611
Change -0.0023 0.35 -0.0030 0.0194 0.0130 0.0002
Pivots EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD AUDUSD
Res 3 1.3930 78.42 0.9391 1.6011 1.0943 1.0279
Res 2 1.3810 77.80 0.9266 1.5863 1.0713 1.0132
Res 1 1.3602 77.44 0.9165 1.5727 1.0598 0.9905
Pivot 1.3482 76.82 0.9040 1.5579 1.0368 0.9758
Sup 1 1.3274 76.46 0.8939 1.5443 1.0253 0.9531
Sup 2 1.3154 75.84 0.8814 1.5295 1.0023 0.9384
Sup 3 1.2946 75.48 0.8713 1.5159 0.9908 0.9157
Santorini VA 14:29 GMT October 1, 2011
THATS GREECE
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppJW01LeRrk&feature=youtu.be
WATCH ABOVE VIDEO.
THAT'S GREECE which local govermental trators, with their foreign allies who both of them have stolen billions of euros from Greek people, and now try to destroy people by puting devastating austerity measures. This is the beggining of an international Tsunami. Remember this. Just Greece happened/chosen to be the first victim.
THATS GREECE
GVI Forex john 14:02 GMT October 1, 2011
China NBS PMI
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51.2 vs. 51.3 expected 50.9 prior.
GVI Forex Jay 12:12 GMT October 1, 2011
jpy
Caba, it may be in this order
jpy vs cny
jpy vs usd
jpy vs other currencies
Syd 04:28 GMT October 1, 2011
RBA Rate Decision Could Break the Aussie
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RBA Rate Decision Could Break the Aussie
Reserve Bank of Australia is becoming increasingly dovish. While concerns over the Australian economy are limited in scope, any pullback in Australian growth is likely to be provoked by broader global macroeconomic trends. This has translated into a weaker Australian Dollar over the third quarter of 2011. If further dovish rhetoric is issued - as expected – interest rate expectations could diminish further. Indeed, a lack of supportive commentary could send the Aussie plummeting in the coming days and weeks. – CV
DailyFX.
HK [email protected] 02:49 GMT October 1, 2011
Germany will leave the euro, says leading commentator
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http://www.citywire.co.uk/global/germany-will-leave-the-euro-says-leading-commentator/a528716?ref=citywire-global-latest-news-list
by Atholl Simpson on Sep 30, 2011 at 14:28
The Eurozone crisis will end up with Germany quitting the common currency says economic commentator Philippa Malmgren of Principalis.
‘My view is that it is Germany that will have to pull out of the euro,‘ said Malmgren, speaking at Threadneedle Investments’ European conference in London on Thursday. ‘The decision has already been made by the government that leaving the euro is a possibility.’
‘I think they have already got the printing machines going and are bringing out the old deutschmarks they have left over from when the euro was introduced.’
A former economic advisor to George W. Bush during his presidential campaign, Malmgren recognises a German exit would be a radical move and would mean a sudden rise in its export prices. But she believes Germany’s industries are in a strong enough position to deal with high prices in the near future.
Leaving a currency union has happened many times before, she added, pointing to a report published by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in 2007 which analysed countries’ departures from monetary unions.
The report entitled 'Checking out: Exits from Currency Unions' analysed close to 70 distinct countries that left a currency union. It found that leavers tend to be larger, richer and more democratic and also tend to have higher inflation.
However, the report states, there is ‘little macroeconomic volatility around the time of currency union dissolutions, and only a poor linkage between monetary and political independence. Indeed, aggregate macroeconomic features of the economy do a poor job in predicting currency union exits.’
Malmgren, who is an adviser to some of the world’s leading asset managers and a co-founder of Principalis Asset Management, believes we are going to see a profound change in the fabric of society as increasing numbers of countries will default on their debt.
‘The focus of the markets right now are on all the other countries in the eurozone. Greece is done. We need to start looking at the others. Belgium will not have to assets to bail itself out of its debt problem.’
‘The question on the market’s mind is the multiple defaults in Western Europe. It is important to begin preparing the public to deal with this situation.
ny 01:57 GMT October 1, 2011
MT4 or MT5 at GO Markets?
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Buy OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:
Trying to decide whether to use the MT4 or MT5 platform at GO. Anyone used the Mt5?
dc CB 01:02 GMT October 1, 2011
The Anglo-American Precious Metals Derivatives Duopoly: Quarterly OCC Report
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The US Office of the Currency Comptroller (OCC) issues a Quarterly Report on the Derivatives exposure of US Banks and Trust. The report, including historical archives, can be found here.
The archives go back to 1998, but it is quite clear that the report is not so interesting prior to the repeal of Glass-Steagall and the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, also known as the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000.
The report shows that JPM has about 80 percent of the gold derivatives in the world on its book, with HSBC holding the other 20 percent. And in other commodities, JPM holds a similar position as well as part of their overall $78 trillion derivatives book which is heavily dominated by interest rate and credit derivatives. But hey, that's without netting, right? Oh yeah, counter-party risk.
JPM is not just Too Big to Fail. It IS the market. And 95% of their transactions are still OTC.
Just for the sake of perspective I did include a chart from the 2Q 2000 report here which shows both the total derivatives exposure, leverage and concentrations, and the gold market in particular.
Notice that some of the players are no longer with us, and of course there is the big combination of CMB and JPM, when the houses of Morgan and Rockefeller combined after this report was issued to become the leviathan of international banking.
At that time Chase Manhattan Bank was the biggest player with about $14 Trillion in nominal derivatives with a leverage to total assets of about 43. The gold market was a three way split amongst Chase, Morgan and Citi, with Fleet grabbing some scraps.
Jesse's Café Américain
philadelphia caba 00:39 GMT October 1, 2011
jpy
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Is BOJ/MOF more focused on usd/jpy than other pairs or they're watching yen as a complex against whole basket of currencies?Tia.
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