Forex Forum Archive for 10/1/2011

Syd 23:27 GMT October 1, 2011
Euro
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Rumors are circulating in the twittersphere that the haircut on Greek bonds will move from 21% to 75%.

Syd 22:47 GMT October 1, 2011
Germany 'won't give more to EU bail-out fund'
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AFP - German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble ruled out Germany contributing any more money to the beefed-up EU bail-out fund than the 211 billion euros approved by parliament, in an interview published Saturday.

link

Syd 22:42 GMT October 1, 2011
El-Erian: Why Good Companies May Get Even Cheaper for Awhile
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But before acting on conventional wisdom, investors should ask themselves why so many unthinkables have turned into reality over the last few months.

El-Erian:

Syd 22:29 GMT October 1, 2011
STAY AWAY: The 10 Dirtiest Hotels In Asia
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http://www.businessinsider.com/the-dirtiest-hotels-in-asia-2011-9

Boston eFX 21:37 GMT October 1, 2011
CHARTING MARKETS: Could That Be A Bottom In The Euro Charts?
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(Dow Jones via eFXnews) While the world is bracing for more bad news on the euro, the charts are hinting at a different possibility: a correction, perhaps as early next week, in the European currency's four-month downtrend against the dollar.

That prospect might seem a long shot given current trading not to mention we're still a ways from the downtrend, which sits at Monday's low of $1.3361, all amid continued political uncertainty and speculation that the European Central Bank might make euro-weakening rate cuts on Thursday. But the key technical point is .....

CHARTING MARKETS: Could That Be A Bottom In The Euro Charts? (Full Story)

GVI Forex john 19:56 GMT October 1, 2011
U.S. Pivot Points
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Week Perspective...

9/30/11	EURUSD	USDJPY	USDCHF	GBPUSD	USDCAD	AUDUSD
Last	1.3395	77.07	0.9063	1.5591	1.0482	0.9678
High	1.3689	77.19	0.9142	1.5715	1.0484	0.9985
Low	1.3361	76.21	0.8916	1.5431	1.0139	0.9611
Change	-0.0023	0.35	-0.0030	0.0194	0.0130	0.0002
Pivots	EURUSD	USDJPY	USDCHF	GBPUSD	USDCAD	AUDUSD
Res 3	1.3930	78.42	0.9391	1.6011	1.0943	1.0279
Res 2	1.3810	77.80	0.9266	1.5863	1.0713	1.0132
Res 1	1.3602	77.44	0.9165	1.5727	1.0598	0.9905
						
Pivot	1.3482	76.82	0.9040	1.5579	1.0368	0.9758
						
Sup 1	1.3274	76.46	0.8939	1.5443	1.0253	0.9531
Sup 2	1.3154	75.84	0.8814	1.5295	1.0023	0.9384
Sup 3	1.2946	75.48	0.8713	1.5159	0.9908	0.9157

GVI Forex john 18:55 GMT October 1, 2011
Global-View D.O.G. Iindex
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New Chart Dog index back to the start of 2010

D.O.G. Chart

Santorini VA 14:29 GMT October 1, 2011
THATS GREECE
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ppJW01LeRrk&feature=youtu.be

WATCH ABOVE VIDEO.

THAT'S GREECE which local govermental trators, with their foreign allies who both of them have stolen billions of euros from Greek people, and now try to destroy people by puting devastating austerity measures. This is the beggining of an international Tsunami. Remember this. Just Greece happened/chosen to be the first victim.

THATS GREECE

GVI Forex john 14:02 GMT October 1, 2011
China NBS PMI
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51.2 vs. 51.3 expected 50.9 prior.

GVI Forex Jay 12:12 GMT October 1, 2011
jpy

Caba, it may be in this order

jpy vs cny
jpy vs usd
jpy vs other currencies

Syd 07:26 GMT October 1, 2011
China paper urges Europe get act together on debt crisis
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(Reuters) - European countries must act decisively to resolve the euro zone debt crisis or risk having some member states forced out of the single currency, China's top newspaper said in a front page commentary on Saturday.

The People's Daily said that with huge differences in the economies of euro member states, especially in the north and south of Europe, this plan would not be easy to implement.

Syd 06:07 GMT October 1, 2011
EURUSD Weekly Summary: Bullish correction almost over, ready to test 1.3000
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The EURUSD had a strong bearish momentum on Friday, erased intraday gains against the Greenback on minor bullish correction since Monday and now retesting 1.3361 support area (Mondayïżœs low). Judging from the strength of the bearish momentum on Friday which formed a huge bearish daily candle,

Link

Syd 04:28 GMT October 1, 2011
RBA Rate Decision Could Break the Aussie
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RBA Rate Decision Could Break the Aussie
Reserve Bank of Australia is becoming increasingly dovish. While concerns over the Australian economy are limited in scope, any pullback in Australian growth is likely to be provoked by broader global macroeconomic trends. This has translated into a weaker Australian Dollar over the third quarter of 2011. If further dovish rhetoric is issued - as expected – interest rate expectations could diminish further. Indeed, a lack of supportive commentary could send the Aussie plummeting in the coming days and weeks. – CV
DailyFX.

Syd 04:23 GMT October 1, 2011
Australian Businesses Sees ‘Fiscal Crisis’ Without Tax Changes
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Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The Business Council of Australia, a national lobby group on public policy, urged the government to simplify the tax code or risk plunging the country into a “fiscal crisis”

link

HK [email protected] 02:49 GMT October 1, 2011
Germany will leave the euro, says leading commentator
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http://www.citywire.co.uk/global/germany-will-leave-the-euro-says-leading-commentator/a528716?ref=citywire-global-latest-news-list
by Atholl Simpson on Sep 30, 2011 at 14:28

The Eurozone crisis will end up with Germany quitting the common currency says economic commentator Philippa Malmgren of Principalis.

‘My view is that it is Germany that will have to pull out of the euro,‘ said Malmgren, speaking at Threadneedle Investments’ European conference in London on Thursday. ‘The decision has already been made by the government that leaving the euro is a possibility.’

‘I think they have already got the printing machines going and are bringing out the old deutschmarks they have left over from when the euro was introduced.’

A former economic advisor to George W. Bush during his presidential campaign, Malmgren recognises a German exit would be a radical move and would mean a sudden rise in its export prices. But she believes Germany’s industries are in a strong enough position to deal with high prices in the near future.

Leaving a currency union has happened many times before, she added, pointing to a report published by the Monetary Authority of Singapore in 2007 which analysed countries’ departures from monetary unions.

The report entitled 'Checking out: Exits from Currency Unions' analysed close to 70 distinct countries that left a currency union. It found that leavers tend to be larger, richer and more democratic and also tend to have higher inflation.

However, the report states, there is ‘little macroeconomic volatility around the time of currency union dissolutions, and only a poor linkage between monetary and political independence. Indeed, aggregate macroeconomic features of the economy do a poor job in predicting currency union exits.’

Malmgren, who is an adviser to some of the world’s leading asset managers and a co-founder of Principalis Asset Management, believes we are going to see a profound change in the fabric of society as increasing numbers of countries will default on their debt.

‘The focus of the markets right now are on all the other countries in the eurozone. Greece is done. We need to start looking at the others. Belgium will not have to assets to bail itself out of its debt problem.’

‘The question on the market’s mind is the multiple defaults in Western Europe. It is important to begin preparing the public to deal with this situation.

Syd 02:41 GMT October 1, 2011
Can The China Real Estate ETF Survive Bubble Fears?
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The nexus of this problem stems from Chinese government leaders and their intense fear of clamping down too heavily on the rate of increases for fear of sending the economy into a sharp slowdown.

Thanks to this rampant use of credit, homes are now selling at outrageous levels when compared with personal incomes, 22:1 in some coastal regions. Investors should note that this ratio is far worse than anything the American property market experienced before its bubble burst suggesting that rough times could still be ahead for China and the likely overbought real estate market.

ny 01:57 GMT October 1, 2011
MT4 or MT5 at GO Markets?
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Buy OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:

Trying to decide whether to use the MT4 or MT5 platform at GO. Anyone used the Mt5?

ny 01:54 GMT October 1, 2011
When does GO Markets Trading Competition start?
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Buy OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:

Just wondering if anyone knows when GO Markets Trading Championship starts

Syd 01:11 GMT October 1, 2011
Eurozone: the Soros solution
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FT.com
Financial markets are driving the world towards another Great Depression. The authorities, particularly in Europe, have lost control of the situation. They need to regain control and they need to do so now.

Three bold steps are needed. First, the governments of the eurozone must agree in principle on a new treaty creating a common Treasury for the eurozone. In the meantime, the main banks must be put under European Central Bank direction in return for a temporary guarantee and permanent recapitalisation. The ECB would direct banks to maintain credit lines and outstanding loans, while closely monitoring risks taken for their own accounts. Third, the ECB would enable countries such as Italy and Spain to temporarily refinance themselves within limits at a very low cost. These steps would calm markets and give Europe time to develop a growth strategy, without which the debt problem cannot be solved.

The immediate task is to erect safeguards against contagion from a possible Greek default. There are two vulnerable groups – the banks and the bonds of countries such as Italy and Spain – that need to be protected. These two tasks could be accomplished as follows.

dc CB 01:02 GMT October 1, 2011
The Anglo-American Precious Metals Derivatives Duopoly: Quarterly OCC Report
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The US Office of the Currency Comptroller (OCC) issues a Quarterly Report on the Derivatives exposure of US Banks and Trust. The report, including historical archives, can be found here.

The archives go back to 1998, but it is quite clear that the report is not so interesting prior to the repeal of Glass-Steagall and the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, also known as the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000.

The report shows that JPM has about 80 percent of the gold derivatives in the world on its book, with HSBC holding the other 20 percent. And in other commodities, JPM holds a similar position as well as part of their overall $78 trillion derivatives book which is heavily dominated by interest rate and credit derivatives. But hey, that's without netting, right? Oh yeah, counter-party risk.

JPM is not just Too Big to Fail. It IS the market. And 95% of their transactions are still OTC.

Just for the sake of perspective I did include a chart from the 2Q 2000 report here which shows both the total derivatives exposure, leverage and concentrations, and the gold market in particular.

Notice that some of the players are no longer with us, and of course there is the big combination of CMB and JPM, when the houses of Morgan and Rockefeller combined after this report was issued to become the leviathan of international banking.

At that time Chase Manhattan Bank was the biggest player with about $14 Trillion in nominal derivatives with a leverage to total assets of about 43. The gold market was a three way split amongst Chase, Morgan and Citi, with Fleet grabbing some scraps.

Jesse's Café Américain

philadelphia caba 00:39 GMT October 1, 2011
jpy
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Is BOJ/MOF more focused on usd/jpy than other pairs or they're watching yen as a complex against whole basket of currencies?Tia.