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Forex Forum Archive for 10/12/2011

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
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Syd 23:30 GMT October 12, 2011
Fitch Places 7 Italian Mortgage Covered Bonds on Ratings Watch Negative
Reply   
EU Banking Risks Are ‘Rapidly’ Growing, Sweden’s Martin Andersson Says, “We don’t see any positive signs”
RTRS: Irish FinMin sees 75 bp in ECB cuts

Sydney ACC 23:30 GMT October 12, 2011
Fibonacci Points
Reply   
A number of Fibonacci retracement points littered around AUD/USD, Aussie 200 Index, EUR/USD and S&P 500 at current levels which might restrict further upside.

AUD/USD
1.1074 28 Jul
0.9390 7 Oct
50% 1.0232

Aussie 200 Index
4989 11 Apr
3761 19 Aug
38.2% 4230

4989 11 Apr
3813 9 Oct
38.2% 4262

EUR/USD
1.49323 4 May
1.3143 9 Sep
38.2% 1.3825

1.4548 29 Aug
1.3143 9 Sep
50% 1.3847

S&P 500
1376.07 2 May
1.074.43 9 Oct
50% - 1074.43


la la 22:36 GMT October 12, 2011
toppish
Reply   
These moves look toppish imvho

Boston eFX 22:20 GMT October 12, 2011
CHARTING MARKETS: USD/JPY Rally, Rumor Or Not, Looking Strong
Reply   
(Dow Jones via eFXnews) Wednesday's inscrutable but powerful higher move in dollar/yen may be about to show traders what it's made of, because as of this writing it's crowding a potential top on the monthly chart.

I calculate that a minimum higher move on the monthly chart might top at the ....

CHARTING MARKETS: USD/JPY Rally, Rumor Or Not, Looking Strong (full story)

Syd 22:15 GMT October 12, 2011
Slovakia rejects euro bailout fund – video
Reply   
After eight hours of debate in parliament, measure calling on Slovakia to support revamp of bailout fund fails to pass by 21 votes

video

Syd 22:11 GMT October 12, 2011
Luxury Chinese Boat Launches, Sinks Immediately
Reply   
Sinks Immediately

Link

Syd 22:07 GMT October 12, 2011
Mario Draghi: Fears of Italian debt spiral
Reply   
We must act fast. The sorts of interest rate rises seen over the last three months, if protracted, could lead to an uncontrollable spiral," said Mario Draghi, who takes over as head of the European Central Bank next month.

Mr Draghi hinted that ECB help is nearing its political limits, evoking Italy's "atavistic temptation" of waiting for an army to cross the Alps to sort out its problems. "It is not going to happen. All our citizens must be are aware of this. It would be a tragic illusion to think that the help will come from outside," he said

Mtl JP 22:07 GMT October 12, 2011
Efsf

BK - re where on earth will they get the money ?
-
It is a circular question with a circular answer.
The ESFS bonds are supposed to be bought by investors who will reach into their savings accounts sitting at the same banks that the bonds are expected to be bailing out.

Barosso is a genius. That is why it is not easily understood.
see my 19:28

LJ BK 21:58 GMT October 12, 2011
Efsf
Reply   
Efsf looks like joke. Countries that might need a bailout are at the same time guarantors of this scheme. There is no way a bond holder will be able to cash in a guarantee if efsf goes bust. And it will go bust when countires of which they will buy debts go bust. State budgets are not sustainable even now, where on earth will they get the money to pay for that guarantees. At the end, only ECB can get the money out of nothing.

Syd 21:45 GMT October 12, 2011
Gold Gains, ECB “Could Print Euros” to Fund Own Bailout, Euro Collapse “Could Destroy Global F
Reply   
"Who would bail out the ECB?" he asks, pointing out that a "disproportionate fraction" of the ECB's €1 trillion of assets is likely to be made up of distressed government bonds.


"The endgame is likely to be the printing of Euros and a burst of inflation."

GVI Forex john 21:42 GMT October 12, 2011
Westpac NZ Outlook
Reply   
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours:

The upward corrections remain intact, although the recent moves have stretched the currencies such that small intra-day pullbacks are possible.

AUD has broken successive upside targets and now looks to the 62% retracement level of 1.0240 above.

If NZD can hold above the key 0.7960, 0.8120 beckons. Australia’s employment report today is important, and China’s trade balance will be watched.

GVI Forex john 21:02 GMT October 12, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets
Reply   

  • Key Items-  AU- Jobs. CN/GB- Trade. US- Wkly Jobs, Trade, Crude, 30-yr. CA- Trade.

  • The USD turned sharply lower early Wednesday. The EUR gained after word that the Slovak government would approve EFSF this week. There has been no doubt that the EURUSD has been heavily oversold with just about every analyst having been bearish.

  • Adding to the disruption of the markets, the Reuters institutional dealing system went down for a time during a time of uncertainty. This made it difficult for trades to execute trades due to the illiquidity.

  • Equity markets have already priced in approval of the EFSF in Slovakia this week. Slovakia is the final Parliamentary approval that was needed.  Third quarter earnings season for the U.S. started Tuesday. There have been few pre-earning warnings this quarter.

  • Thursday sees a full economic calendar chock full of items that could move prices.

GVI Forex john 20:52 GMT October 12, 2011
USD Pivot Points
Reply   

Pivots	EURUSD	USDJPY	USDCHF	GBPUSD	USDCAD	AUDUSD
Res 3	1.4150	78.90	0.9261	1.6122	1.0473	1.0641
Res 2	1.3992	78.19	0.9188	1.5959	1.0400	1.0424
Res 1	1.3897	77.72	0.9062	1.5866	1.0275	1.0298

Pivot	1.3739	77.01	0.8989	1.5703	1.0202	1.0081

Sup 1	1.3644	76.54	0.8863	1.5610	1.0077	0.9955
Sup 2	1.3486	75.83	0.8790	1.5447	1.0004	0.9738
Sup 3	1.3391	75.36	0.8664	1.5354	0.9879	0.9612

Boston eFX 20:50 GMT October 12, 2011
Reuters Outage Challenges FX Market's Resilience
Reply   
(WSJ/The Source) For the global foreign-exchange markets, fragmentation isn't a dirty word. In fact, market participants are rather proud of it, arguing that the currency markets are far more resilient to technical glitches as a result.

The idea is this: when one trading system falls over, currency trades can simply flow to others. Interbank platforms and ....

Reuters Outage Challenges FX Market's Resilience (full story)

GVI Forex john 20:47 GMT October 12, 2011
USD Moving Averages
Reply   

10/12/2011

20:00

GMT

 

 

 

 

Latest

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

AUDUSD

Last

1.3803

77.25

0.8936

1.5772

1.0149

1.0173

High

1.3833

77.48

0.9115

1.5797

1.0328

1.0206

Low

1.3580

76.30

0.8916

1.5541

1.0130

0.9863

Change

0.0129

0.59

-0.0128

0.0164

-0.0141

0.0185

MVA

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

AUDUSD

5 day

1.3590

76.80

0.9098

1.5610

1.0294

0.9935

10 day

1.3484

76.80

0.9113

1.5563

1.0375

0.9792

20 day

1.3554

76.68

0.9019

1.5588

1.0231

0.9907

50 day

1.3949

76.90

0.8432

1.5973

1.0005

1.0248

100 day

1.4139

78.36

0.8365

1.6093

0.9837

1.0472

200 day

1.4062

80.29

0.8781

1.6130

0.9798

1.0376

TREND

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

AUDUSD

BIAS

Up

Up

Up

Up

Up

Up

 

Syd 20:44 GMT October 12, 2011
Eurozone Plan Will Be Neither 'Sustainable' Nor 'Comprehensive'
Reply   
China To The Rescue? It Has To Rescue Itself First
One of our current macro themes is that China cannot possibly ride to the rescue of the world's economy, as so many seem to hope, especially given the ongoing strains in its financial system. Markets have seemed to agree with this view:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/299206-china-to-the-rescue-it-has-to-rescue-itself-first?source=kizur


Banks leap wall of worry
Oct 12 2011 Markets have moved from fear to relief as leaders assure investors that Europe's banking crisis is in hand. Bank equities have risen more than a third in less than three weeks, boosted on Wednesday by José Manuel Barroso's recapitalisation plans. James Mackintosh, investment editor, looks at whether the rally is well-founded and what risks remain. (4m 0sec) http://video.ft.com/v/1214848237001/Banks-leap-wall-of-worry

On Sunday, Merkel and Sarkozy promised a “sustainable and comprehensive” solution to the euro debt crisis ahead of the November 3-4 G-20 meeting. Along with this rather grand announcement are absolutely no details on their plan. However, Van Rompuy today pushed back the European Summit, which convenes now on October 23, to "finalise our comprehensive strategy on the euro area sovereign debt criris." Perhaps a real plan is in the works. I think not.

LINK

GVI Forex john 20:43 GMT October 12, 2011
ALERT- U.S. API Data
Reply   

-- ALERT --
U.S. API Weekly Energy Inventories (mln)
(Expectations and Prev are for EIA data)
Crude Oil: -3.8 vs. +0.700 exp. vs. -4.700 prev.
Gasoline: -1.2 vs. -0.100 exp. vs. -1.140 prev.
Distillates: -3.1 vs. -0.800 exp. vs -0.744 prev.
Cap/Util: 83.4% vs. 86.80% exp. vs. 87.70% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

dc CB 20:35 GMT October 12, 2011
Market Slumps After European Banks Admit They Can't/Won't Raise Capital
Reply   
Will Proceed With Asset Liquidations Instead

It was about an hour before the market close, which means it was time for the latest FT rumor. Only this time, unlike the 3 or so times before, the bazooka was not only a dud, it caused the inverse reaction of that intended, and led to a broad market selloff.

The reason: according to the FT (and certainly take this with a salt shaker if previous experience is any indication) is that European banks have balked at the prospect of recapitalizing at current levels ("Why should we raise capital at these [depressed share price] levels?” said one eurozone bank boss. The average European bank’s equity is trading at only about 60 per cent of its book value.) and instead will opt for asset liquidations. Now, whether they won't, or, as we have claimed since the first day we heard of the ludicrous "recap" rumors, they can't, simply because absent a massively dilutive rights offering, nobody in their right mind would lend to an industry which continues to be locked out of short-term funding markets for the 4th month in a row.

As a result no new money can come in: a key prerequisite to any European recapitalization plans. Of course, it is one for a "blog" to say that, it is something else for the FT to confirm it, even if it is a rumor.

ZH

Syd 20:23 GMT October 12, 2011
EU banks could shrink to hit capital rules
Reply   
Leading European banks say they would rather sell assets than raise expensive new capital to meet compulsory demands from the European Union for higher capital ratios, threatening a further contraction of credit to the enfeebled eurozone economy
This radical approach, led by French banks BNP Paribas and Société Générale, would be copied by lenders across Italy, Spain and Germany, bankers said. “Why should we raise capital at these [depressed share price] levels?” said one eurozone bank boss. The average European bank’s equity is trading at only about 60 per cent of its book value.
Another top banker said: “It’s fundamentally wrong to increase capital at the moment. Deleveraging needs to happen.”
However, the banks’ “shrinkage” strategy is likely to prove controversial with politicians and regulators if it led to bankers lending less money to customers, jeopardising the eurozone’s fragile recovery, analysts warned.

European companies rely on banks for as much as 80 per cent of their funding compared with only 30 per cent for US companies.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f2e62f82-f4f2-11e0-9023-00144feab49a.html#axzz1aVnitt9K

European companies rely on banks for as much as 80 per cent of their funding compared with only 30 per cent for US companies.

GVI Forex Blog 20:19 GMT October 12, 2011 Reply   
Key Items- AU- Jobs. CN/GB- Trade. US- Wkly Jobs, Trade, Crude, 30-yr. CA- Trade. The USD turned sharply lower early Wednesday. The EUR gained after word that the Slovak government would approve EFSF this week. There has been no doubt that the EURUSD has been heavily oversold with just about every analyst having been bearish.

Forex Trade Talk 00:00 GMT 13 October 2011

GVI Forex Blog 20:14 GMT October 12, 2011 Reply   
The euro rallied on Wednesday to a near one-month high against the dollar on hopes Slovakia would eventually approve an expansion of the euro zone rescue fund critical to containing the region's debt crisis.

FOREX NEWS - Euro rises to near one-month high versus dollar

Syd 20:06 GMT October 12, 2011
House of Cards
Reply   
The pressure in this bubble is mounting. Andy Xie lays out the real situation on the ground in China:

No other government in the world would spend that kind of money. If you go to local Chinese cities, you will see what they spent that money on: Tens of millions on just trees, parks and government buildings.

There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.” – Ludwig von Mises

Syd 19:58 GMT October 12, 2011
Euro
Reply   
FT reports latest Eurobank bailout rumor is... asset sales

Syd 19:57 GMT October 12, 2011
First ever disclosure of the country's inventory of the metal
Reply   
China held 1.9 million metric tons of copper at the end of 2010, in the first-ever disclosure of the country's inventory of the metal, the Financial Times reported online Wednesday, citing the state-backed China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association. The estimate is significantly higher than the range of 1 million to 1.5 million metric tons that foreign executives have assumed in the past, and is more than the U.S. consumes in a year, the newspaper noted.
www.ft.com

Cambridge Joe 19:53 GMT October 12, 2011
Bn.£2 turnover in just 8 months...
Reply   
That IS going some..... for a new start-up... !

#################


Ex-police officer admits £300 million VAT fraud.

PA, 16:44, Wednesday 12 October 2011
A former police officer has admitted a £300 million VAT fraud believed to be the biggest in UK history.

Nigel Cranswick, 47, was a director of Ideas 2 Go (I2G), which he ran from a small office in a Sheffield business park, and claimed to have bought and sold at least £2 billion of goods in just eight months.

He has since admitted the firm's trading, largely in mobile phones and computer software, was fictitious, and the aim was to generate paperwork from fake sales in order to claim back a fortune in VAT from HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC).

A source close to the case, which has taken five years to investigate, said it was believed to be the largest of its kind ever taken to court.

Prosecution documents said: "In its eight-month trading life I2G's business documentation reveals that it purported to buy and sell goods in many thousands of deals, to the value of at least £2 billion.

"This included about £300m of VAT, which it was purportedly charged by its suppliers.

"The trade was not genuine and this £300m was the target of the defendants."

The document continues: "Despite this phenomenal turnover of over £2 billion, I2G operated from a very small and modest office accommodation in a Sheffield business park.

"The defendants, who were its officers and employees and purported to carry out billions of pounds of business, had no previous experience in either the mobile phone industry or in running any business on such a grand scale."

Cranswick (LSE: CWK.L - news) , of Danby Road, Kiveton, Sheffield, admitted conspiracy to cheat HMRC.

Brian Olive, 56, of Buttermere Close, Doncaster, and Darren Smyth, 42, of Beech Road, Maltby, Rotherham, admitted the same charge.

Cranswick's 44-year-old sister Clare Reid, of the same address as Smyth, admitted two counts of false accounting.

They pleaded guilty on the eve of a trial at Newcastle Crown Court and will be sentenced, along with two other defendants, next month.

Paul Rooney, HM Revenue & Customs assistant director for criminal investigation, said: "This was a sophisticated fraud designed to steal hundreds of millions of pounds of tax.

"HMRC investigators unravelled a complex web of fake business transactions fabricated to conceal the massive financial fraud."

More finance stories from telegraph.co.uk
Related Headlines

Ex-police officer admits £300 million VAT fraud - Telegraph
These Shares Are Like Coiled Springs! - Fool.co.uk
EUROPE RESEARCH ROUND-UP: Nestle, Zurich Financial - Reuters - UK Focus
EUROPE RESEARCH ROUND-UP: Nestle, Zurich Financial Services - Reuters - UK Focus
Cranswick PLC - Trading Statement - AFX CNF

GVI Forex john 19:50 GMT October 12, 2011
Global-View.com Forex Heat Maps
Reply   

Be Sure to Refresh Forum Manually to Update Heat Map.


Syd 19:48 GMT October 12, 2011
mks
Reply   
Greek Bondholders May Face 60% Losses: Charles Wyplosz, director of the International Center for Money. Or else trade in line with market

Chinese Copper Inventories Revealed To Be Double Estimated
In a piece of news that can not be taken well by students of Dr. Copper, the FT reveals for the first time that China's estimated copper inventories, based on numbers from the China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association, were 1.9 million tonnes at the end of 2010 which is almost double the lower end of the consensus estimate of 1.0-1.5 MM tonnes (and, as the FT points out, "more than the US consumes in a year).

So while copper is doing its high beta thing on the nth short squeeze day in stocks, the smart money is starting to bail for very obvious reasons.

GVI Forex john 19:47 GMT October 12, 2011
FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Open 19:42 GMT October 12, 2011 Reply   

Euroview: Euro Gains Look Like Short Squeeze (vid)

Syd 19:39 GMT October 12, 2011
Slovakian Parties Agree to Back Euro Fund
Reply   
Slovakia looks set to ratify the expansion of the euro bailout fund in a second vote this week after the government reached a deal with opposition parties on Wednesday. The country had thrown euro rescue efforts into doubt on Tuesday night when it became the only euro zone member to reject the measure.

www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,791489,00.html#ref=nlint

'Management Disaster'
A German Ghost Town in the Heart of China
Half-timbered buildings and medieval romance -- that's what the Chinese wanted. But the architecture firm Speer thought it knew better, and built a modern German residential quarter on the outskirts of Shanghai. Now that it is complete, though, nobody wants to live there. Even Oktoberfest was cancelled.

A German Ghost Town in the Heart of China

GVI Forex Blog 19:29 GMT October 12, 2011 Reply   
19:30 GMT (Global-View.com) October 12- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is closing in North America at .5221, -0.50% from its Tuesday close (-2.96% ytd).

Global-View D.O.G. Index October 12, 2011 U.S. Close

Mtl JP 19:28 GMT October 12, 2011
plan for a plan
Reply   
EU plans to force banks to raise capital soon usatoday
according to maoist Barosso, now European Commission's president:
- plans to force the region's biggest banks to raise billions of euros in capital to better withstand market turmoil over the high debt in several euro countries
- key European banks should not be allowed to pay dividends or bonuses until they have raised their capital buffers to the new standards.
- systemically important banks in Europe will have to implement international rules on bank capital much earlier than 2019
- new capital levels would have to be eached ..."substantially earlier" than 2019
- continued support of Greece,
- bigger powers for the Commission to control national budgets
- if banks can't raise the necessary capital in financial markets, they should get help from governments, who in turn can ask for money from the eurozone bailout fund.
---
call it Plan DD
(D for dominos and D for default)

GVI Forex john 19:26 GMT October 12, 2011
Global-View D.O.G. Iindex
Reply   
19:30 GMT (Global-View.com) October 12- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is closing in North America at .5221, -0.50% from its Tuesday close (-2.96% ytd).

As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7558, -0.66% (-2.88% ytd). The forex index is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.

Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is currently worth .1718, -0.90% (-15.31% ytd).

Against crude, it is at 0.5216, +0.43% (+6.96% ytd). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is set against levels from the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).

D.O.G. Homepage

GVI Forex Blog 19:18 GMT October 12, 2011 Reply   
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: The upward corrections remain intact, although the recent moves have stretched the currencies such that small intr-aday pullbacks are possible. AUD has broken successive upside targets and now looks to the 62% retracement level of 1.0240 above. If NZD can hold above the key 0.7960, 0.8120 beckons. Australia’s employment report today is important, and China’s trade balance will be watched.

Forex - Morning Report (Westpac)

Boston eFX 18:27 GMT October 12, 2011
Euro Buying Seen As 'Fear Trade' Nears Limits
Reply   
(Dow Jones via eFXnews) Douglas Borthwick at Faros Trading says central bank buying "on the cheap" from the Middle East and Eastern Europe has helped support the euro at current levels.

"All of this intervention is building a ceiling on ....

Euro Buying Seen As 'Fear Trade' Nears Limits (full story)

sofia kaprikorn 18:20 GMT October 12, 2011
fade
Reply   
Sell EURJPY
Entry: 106.81 Target: 106 Stop: 107.22

mild retrace targeted.

hk ab 17:31 GMT October 12, 2011
gold
Reply   
those yankee gold selling completely stops now in US session.

Open 17:15 GMT October 12, 2011 Reply   

Bofa Merrill: Euro & Dollar Investment Strategy (vid)

Mtl JP 17:13 GMT October 12, 2011
The Ultimate Growth Industry

and the nice thing about beer is that it has relatively short shelf-life and that it is only rented...
-
About EFSF

As part of the overall rescue package of €750 billion, EFSF is able to issue bonds guaranteed by EAMS for up to € 440 billion for on-lending to EAMS in difficulty, subject to conditions negotiated with the European Commission in liaison with the European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund and to be approved by the Eurogroup.

EFSF has been assigned the best possible credit rating; AAA by Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings, Aaa by Moody’s." ...
-
so here is the ticket: issue bonds guaranteed by EAMS..
issue them to who ? who, pray tell, has money to buy the ESFS issued and guaranteed bonds ? Are europeans expected to pull their savings out of banks and purchase thusly these bonds ?

GVI Forex john 17:08 GMT October 12, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets

-- NEWS --

Poor U.S. 10-yr auction 2.27% vs. 2.23% beforehand.

Mtl JP 16:57 GMT October 12, 2011
Aussie - ripe for correction

IF ... if Asia should crap, where would IT turn the way europeans turned to CHF ?
what are Asian`s options for `safety` ?

GVI Forex john 16:53 GMT October 12, 2011
Global-View

- Pretty clear pattern. USD weak across the board (liquidating market).
- Only USDJPY is better. BOJ supporting the USD?

GVI Forex john 16:45 GMT October 12, 2011
Global-View
Reply   

Be Sure to Refresh Forum Manually to Update Heat Map.


Baltimore AS 16:23 GMT October 12, 2011
The Ultimate Growth Industry
Reply   
If you want to protect yourself from the demise of the U.S. dollar, you need assets denominated in something other than the greenback.

It is the ultimate growth industry... beer. The nectar of the gods may be one of man's oldest delights, but a very specific sector is growing by double digits each year.

Microbrews are hot.

http://www.insideinvestingdaily.com/articles/taipan-daily-101211.html

The Ultimate Growth Industry

Boston eFX 16:09 GMT October 12, 2011
The Nasty Stench Of Trade Wars
Reply   
(Dow Jones via eFXnews) One whiff and the dollar is well away.

One whiff of trade wars, that is.

Unfortunately, the smell has come when the dollar was already starting to swoon for other reasons, including signs of improvement in global risk sentiment as well as a renewed investor confidence in the prospects for the euro.

But, trade wars.....

The Nasty Stench Of Trade Wars

Saar KaL 16:07 GMT October 12, 2011
buy audusd

NZDUSD Longs
0.7931
0.7950
seems impossible but tgt 0.810

hk ab 16:02 GMT October 12, 2011
eur
Reply   
needs to use the 1666 net....

Saar KaL 16:00 GMT October 12, 2011
buy audusd

gbpaud
shorts

1.5554
1.5518
tgt 1.5220

hk ab 15:46 GMT October 12, 2011
yen

thanks a lot for your views on e/j and e/u.

HK Kevin 15:43 GMT October 12, 2011
yen

hk ab 15:37 GMT, don't trade YEN or its crosses recently. EUR/JPY ha srecorded a break out tooday, but may face strong resistance of the 50 ma in the daily chart.

hk ab 15:37 GMT October 12, 2011
yen
Reply   
Kevin, do you think u/j can march north from here?

GVI Forex Blog 15:35 GMT October 12, 2011 Reply   
European indices climbed out of the red zone earlier this morning on news that Slovak parliamentarians were meeting to hash out a procedure to vote again on the EFSF measures, helping to boost US futures before the open today. All three major US indices are up by respectable amounts in early trade, with events in Europe totally in the drivers' seat once again.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update

Saar KaL 15:32 GMT October 12, 2011
buy audusd

GBPNZD shorts at

1.9850
1.9822
for tgt 1.9620

HK Kevin 15:31 GMT October 12, 2011
Current Position
Reply   
My current position:
Short EUR/USD 1.3770, open target
Short AUD/USD, target 1.0030
Short EUR/GBP 0.8780, target 0.8735 & 0.8790
All small positions protected with stop.
Don't know these positions are money in the bag or on the table when I wake up next morning.
If all are ended up with stop out, then I give back the profits from short AUD this morning.

GVI Forex Blog 15:26 GMT October 12, 2011 Reply   
Gold (daily chart) as of Wednesday (10/12/2011) has continued its struggle to recover from the precipitous drop that brought price down from its latest all-time high of 1920 in early September

Gold Struggles to Recover

Saar KaL 15:23 GMT October 12, 2011
buy audusd

i agree
Longing More

1.0124
1.0154
1.0204
for min tgt 1.0370
in 12 hrs

Boston eFX 15:23 GMT October 12, 2011
Euro Recovery Partly Based On Extreme Short Position -BBH-BBH
Reply   
(Dow Jones via eFXnews) The euro's sharp gains in recent days has been driven, in part, by a snapback in speculative euro bets, says Brown Brothers Harriman.

Traders had been extremely.....

Euro Recovery Partly Based On Extreme Short Position -BBHH

hk ab 15:22 GMT October 12, 2011
eur
Reply   
1.3115 and 1.3815.... right 700 pips......

Saar KaL 15:21 GMT October 12, 2011
gold

ab
adding more longs gold

1,671.4255
1,670.1709
1,672.4604

kl fs 15:21 GMT October 12, 2011
buy audusd
Reply   
audusd will close very very strong this week IMHO

hk ab 15:16 GMT October 12, 2011
gold
Reply   
it's strong here, add more long 1680.

hk ab 15:16 GMT October 12, 2011
gold
Reply   
it's strong here, add more long 1680.

Saar KaL 15:11 GMT October 12, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

long gbpjpy here
for min exit 123.7
long eurjpy for min exit 108.6

Israel Dil 15:09 GMT October 12, 2011
GBP/JPY

Sell GBPJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

as it's a contra trade, stop adjusted to 122.20
must be fast and careful with fast moving objects :-)

gl/gt

Saar KaL 15:06 GMT October 12, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

long cable

Israel Dil 15:03 GMT October 12, 2011
GBP/JPY

Sell GBPJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

turned short at 122.25 with stop at 122.50 into early next week.

gl/gt

Saar KaL 15:02 GMT October 12, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

gold heading to 1720 next day


1,676.0638
1,675.3314
1,677.6531
placed longs

Richland QC Mailman 14:47 GMT October 12, 2011
Aussie - ripe for correction
Reply   
Ok folks added aussie shorts 1.0072.

Richland QC Mailman 14:45 GMT October 12, 2011
Follow up

DRS2, could not agree more on your analysis on the euro. The true color of its character will eventually show up. Still a USD buyer for a month now notwithstanding this rally.

hk ab 14:44 GMT October 12, 2011
gold
Reply   
yankees are too poor to sell the gold today.... it is so well supported around 1680....

should buy some around 1680 now.

Minneapolis DRS2 14:42 GMT October 12, 2011
Follow up

For EUR/USD, the daily BBs are what I'm watching. We're about to complete a nearly straight-line move from -2 StdDev to +2 StdDev.

We're still in the middle of the week. I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see a return back to 1.3550 by Friday, if not sooner.

Vienna GD 14:29 GMT October 12, 2011
Follow up

@viroan ... thx for your explanation ... and how did you know that the low 1.3x were the lows? Due to the daily BBs???

London Mick 14:23 GMT October 12, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets

ab, this is not a surprise and was expected.

GVI Forex john 14:22 GMT October 12, 2011
Calendar
Reply   


October 12 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, October 13. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

  • Far East: AU- Employment, CN- Trade.
  • Europe: GB- Trade.
  • North America: US- Weekly Jobs, Trade. Natural Gas, Weekly Crude. 30-yr Auction. CA- Trade.


hk ab 14:11 GMT October 12, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets

this explains why euro has eaten energizer ;p

but now, buy the rumour, sell the fact?

Saar KaL 14:11 GMT October 12, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

usdcad sell sell
heading to .9920

GVI Forex john 14:08 GMT October 12, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets

-- NEWS --

Slovak oppostion party says agreement made to approve EFSF2. Deal by Friday.

Saar KaL 14:04 GMT October 12, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

hmm
usdchf will hit .8750 in 12 hrs

EURUSD want 1.41 folks

BSB Jelit Ambuyat 14:02 GMT October 12, 2011
gold

Sell
Entry: Target: Stop:

Gold looking @ 1654

Richland QC Mailman 14:01 GMT October 12, 2011
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3866

Sold more euros 1.3780's again.

BSB Jelit Ambuyat 14:00 GMT October 12, 2011
yen

Sell USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

Sell @ 77.35

HK Kevin 13:50 GMT October 12, 2011
USD/CAD
Reply   
I see USD/CAD and EUR/CHF as market leaders as USD and EUR strength/weakness . USD/CAD 1.0140 and EUR/CHF 1.2420 are important levels.

Richland QC Mailman 13:50 GMT October 12, 2011
" Trade Ideas "

Shorted aussies before euro 1.0120

Richland QC Mailman 13:48 GMT October 12, 2011
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3866

Ok folks. just arrived home. Sold euros 1.3760.

Time to buy USD again.

HK Kevin 13:41 GMT October 12, 2011
" Trade Ideas "

Lahore FM 13:03 GMT, the possibility of AUD/USD to retest the breakout level 1.0025 cannot be ruled out. I am short from near day high.

HK [email protected] 13:40 GMT October 12, 2011
gold

hk ab

Gold may surprise again, but better not to try the market above 1695.

hk ab 13:39 GMT October 12, 2011
eur
Reply   
with eur rises this far, not matter what bad news are announced, it will not dive through the previous bottom @1.315 ;P

Israel Dil 13:38 GMT October 12, 2011
stox
Reply   
it is maybe very unpleasant day ahead for stox, top of the next hour is very crucial.

hk ab 13:37 GMT October 12, 2011
gold
Reply   
hm... under 1680 may induce a false break down. I place a net at 1666 to recollect the gold.

Fx Trading Discussion 13:31 GMT October 12, 2011 Reply   

Will AUD rise or fall? Shall I hold?

Israel Dil 13:30 GMT October 12, 2011
yen

Sell USDJPY
Entry: 77.32 Target: sub 76 Stop: 77.57

BLR virgoan 13:28 GMT October 12, 2011
Follow up

@Vienna GD, breakout above 1.3750 projects a target of 1.3950 which was acting as an excellent support before the recent meltdown. I did not want to take a chance with 1.3950 as a target as it would now act as a stiff resistance on the way up. Hence I chose 1.39. Breakout above 1.3950 would result in 1.41 as the next target.

Israel Dil 13:26 GMT October 12, 2011
yen

me thinks that we will see new all times low before 77.50

gl/gt

Mtl JP 13:24 GMT October 12, 2011
" Trade Ideas "

FM euro, since oct 4th is UP 5% (from 1.3144)
1.41 would make that >7%.
not impossible but decidedly impressive.
plan for a plan

Vienna GD 13:17 GMT October 12, 2011
Follow up

BLR virgoan ... just a question: how did you come to those 1.39 - and not 1.40 or 1.41 or 1.38 i.e. ???

GVI Forex Jay 13:08 GMT October 12, 2011
yen

ab, it has been inside a 76-78 range for over 2 months so hard to call as action has been mainly in jpy crosses over this period but market is itching for a breakout.

hk ab 13:07 GMT October 12, 2011
eur
Reply   
Zeus, still selling euro?

PAR 13:06 GMT October 12, 2011
yen

TOKYO--Japanese researchers discovered high levels of radioactive material in
concentrated areas in Tokyo and Yokohama, more than 241 kilometers away from
the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, as increasingly thorough tests provide a
clearer picture of just how far contamination has spread and accumulated after
the March disaster.

In Tokyo, a sidewalk in Setagaya ward, in the western part of the city,
recorded radiation levels of 2.707 microsieverts per hour, about 50 times
higher than another location in Setagaya where the ward regularly monitors
radiation levels.

"What's puzzling is that the levels detected on other parts of the same
sidewalk were very low," said Ken Hatanaka, head of the ward's section in
charge of radiation monitoring said.

Lahore FM 13:03 GMT October 12, 2011
" Trade Ideas "

after cleaning the sideways hurdles audusd is heading towards 1.0400 and eurusd to 1.41.

hk ab 13:01 GMT October 12, 2011
yen

thanks jay, any development at the moment? expecting dlr/jpy to break north?

hk ab 12:58 GMT October 12, 2011
yen
Reply   
nt, do you have views on fx at the moment?

GVI Forex Jay 12:52 GMT October 12, 2011
yen

ab, I posted this on GVI Forex

JPY crosses a key flow, outside day in usdjpy. 77.26, 77.29, 77.85 and eurjpy 107.01 are key res levels.

Gen dk 12:49 GMT October 12, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Boston eFX 12:47 GMT October 12, 2011
CHARTING EUROPE: EUR/GBP Showing Huge Upside Potential
Reply   


(Dow Jones via eFXnews) EUR/GBP has potential to push higher, and is eyeing the 0.8940 projected resistance area, as sterling's prospects remains dim against the majors.

Long-term scope for the cross also points higher, to a minimum target at .....

CHARTING EUROPE: EUR/GBP Showing Huge Upside Potential (full story) l

GVI Forex Blog 12:46 GMT October 12, 2011 Reply   
Dollar-Swiss fell sharply to a low of 0.8935 and is now bouncing back well from its low.

FX Thoughts for the day : 12-oct-2011 - 1244 GMT

sofia kaprikorn 12:43 GMT October 12, 2011
fade the blade

usd/jpy long was closed earlier today at 76.63 at breakeven - too bad.

this is a good trade as it will break higher so I need to enter again long but will choose my entry later - no targets:
it will go as far as it can and I can't time the market or the boj - it stays comatosed for 2 weeks in 20 pip range and it might run 5 figures in 1 week as well

pick your spot and trade according to your equity size and time horizon.

hk ab 12:40 GMT October 12, 2011
yen
Reply   
does anyone have a say on dlr/jpy?

hk ooozmeeh 12:38 GMT October 12, 2011
Gold

added 1689 buy

hk ab 12:37 GMT October 12, 2011
gold
Reply   
RF// supposingly I expect after 1688, there should be plenty of stop buying. Maybe bc's right, it needs 2-3 more weeks for the boat to turn for golden boat.

I exit 1/3 of the core at 1690, rest at b/e, if it passes my stop, i will start reloading again.

sopot xipt 12:30 GMT October 12, 2011
fade the blade

USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

what is your target for usd/yen

sofia kaprikorn 12:23 GMT October 12, 2011
fade the blade

sofia kaprikorn 09:44 GMT October 12, 2011
Short EUR/USD 1.3801
Short GBP/USD 1.5758
--------
closed eur/usd at 1.3765
closed gbp/usd at 1.5735

...

and yes here goes the yen train ...

GVI Forex john 12:10 GMT October 12, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets

- Haven't seen mention of it here, but the Reuters forex trading matching system for large financial institutions went down earlier today creating havoc in the forex markets. Did it cause the EURUSD spike? Probably not but a lack of liquidity makes it difficult for the market to absorb flows.

hk ooozmeeh 11:57 GMT October 12, 2011
gold

Gbp, Eur, Chf, Jpy, Silver, Oil , all are weak versus USD on the current hour, while Gold is flat to positive. Yellow metal slowly showing initial signs of safe haven status, imho.

Hong Kong Qindex 11:55 GMT October 12, 2011
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3866

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase again when the market resumes its downward trending movement and penetrates through the barrier at 1.3674 // 1.3700.


Qindex.com


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZEGYpXE5B4

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Hong Kong Qindex 11:48 GMT October 12, 2011
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3866
Reply   
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3866


The market is stable when it is trading above the barrier at 1.3744 // 1.3749. Speculative buying interest will increase if the market is able to trade above the critical point at 1.3866.


Qindex.com


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZEGYpXE5B4

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Vienna GD 11:43 GMT October 12, 2011
Follow up

BLR ... Cheers and Congrats to another excellent money maker!

Great call at a time when almost nobody was in your boat!

Looking forward to your future comments!

London Misha 11:36 GMT October 12, 2011
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - Inside Day Doji on Daily Chart.
USDJPY - Another boring Doji on the Daily Chart.
GBPUSD - Bearish Harami on the Daily Chart. Possible Key Reversal Day today!
USDCHF - Bullish Harami on the Daily Chart. Possible Tweezer Bottom.
EURGBP - Follow on from Long Pipe Bottom on Daily Chart. 1st close over the Long MA.
EURJPY - Inside Day Doji on Daily Chart.
USDCAD - Possible Bullish Harami on Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - Possible Bearish Harami on Daily Chart. Possible Key Reversal Day today!

GVI Forex john 11:26 GMT October 12, 2011
Global-View.com Forex Heat Maps
Reply   

Be Sure to Refresh Forum Manually to Update Heat Map.


Berlin rn 11:25 GMT October 12, 2011
euro-zone crisis has "reached a systemic dimension"
Reply   
"High levels of foreign-currency lending may have systemic consequences for the countries concerned as well as potential for cross-border contagion," the ESRB said in a statement released in tandem with Mr. Trichet's comments.




ECB Chief: Europe Is 'Epicenter' of Crisis

Saar KaL 11:18 GMT October 12, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

Gold Longs

1,676.9771
1,676.6316
1,676.4493
1,675.8758
1,675.8035
1,676.1783

Syd 11:13 GMT October 12, 2011
EU: "Very Great Concern" About Iran, Saudi Ambassador Allegation
Reply   
The European Union expressed "very great concern" about U.S. allegations that Iran was behind an attempt to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to Washington and warned of "serious" implications if the charges are proven.

German 42 bund auction is a "clear disappointment" says Nordea as Germany's EUR2 billion offer only drew EUR1.777 billion in bids, leaving the auction technically uncovered. "In the current uncertain market environment, the volatility of 30-year bonds can be considerable, and they are not the preferred safe haven," says Nordea's chief analyst Jan von Gerich. "In addition, the exceptionally low yield levels make ALM [assets-liability management] accounts hesitant buyers," he adds

GVI Forex Blog 11:11 GMT October 12, 2011 Reply   
The euro jumped to a near four-week high versus the dollar on Wednesday on tentative optimism that European leaders would reach agreement on a way to resolve the euro zone debt crisis and as investors took profit on previous short positions.

FOREX NEWS - Euro jumps vs dollar as Slovak vote worries ebb

Saar KaL 11:11 GMT October 12, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

audusd Longs

1.0115
1.0114
1.0111
1.0109
1.0109
1.0110

Syd 11:08 GMT October 12, 2011
Beijing To Fix CNY Weaker As Protest Against US -ANZ
Reply   
The PBOC may keep fixing the CNY at the weak side over the next few days as Beijing continues to protest against a U.S. bill which could punish China for manipulating its currency, ANZ Research says.

Plovdiv Gotin 11:05 GMT October 12, 2011
Q4 "Quantitative Easy Slide"

U are kidding.

Syd 11:04 GMT October 12, 2011
Geopolitical Risk in Middle East and China Currency and Trade War Risk Supporting Gold
Reply   
The Middle East is already a tinder box on the brink of conflict over Iran's nuclear programme, with Israel increasingly twitchy over the progress Tehran is making towards an alleged capacity to make nuclear weapons.

The Middle East is already a tinder box on the brink of conflict over Iran's nuclear programme, with Israel increasingly twitchy over the progress Tehran is making towards an alleged capacity to make nuclear weapons.

A small spark such as this alleged plot and the reaction of the US, Iranian, Saudi and Israeli governments could result in military conflict in the region. Also, there are simmering geopolitical tensions between the US and the increasingly powerful Russia and China about the Middle East.

Monetary risk remains and the Slovakian vote is another reminder of the real risk posed to the Eurozone and the euro through contagion.


Currency and macroeconomic risk is also seen in the Chinese warning to the US overnight that the US currency law risks a trade war and a 1930’s style Depression.

Saar KaL 11:00 GMT October 12, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

Long Cable?

1.5722
1.5723
1.5721
1.5724
1.5728
1.5729
1.5735

GVI Forex Jay 10:58 GMT October 12, 2011
Forex Weathermap - EURUSD
Reply   
10:55 GMT (Global-View.com) Oct 12 - Sometimes it pays not to look for an explanation for the price action and just go with the flow. OGA posted this on GVI Forex and it was something I alluded to last night: I wonder if China is not behind the move, in retaliation of the trade bill passed yesterday.... This is the best explanation I can come up with as Asia seemed to lead the way as the dollar fell across-the-board except vs.the static JPY.

Looking at the upside, 1.38 is the level that will set the tone going forwards.

1.3799 = key Sept 21 high- broken, high 1.3816
1.3846 = 50% of 1.4548 - 1.3144
1,3936 = key Sept 15 high
1.3959 = 50 day mva
1.4012 = 61.8%

Daily Forex WeatherMap - by Jay Meisler
Oct 12, 2011 EURUSD (Current rate: 1.3775)
Bias:Remains BOD (buy on dips) while above the 20 day mva (1.3553) but pace argues for some caution unless 1.38+ is established. In that case, 1.3936 would be targeted. Expected range: 1.3680-00/1.3820-50

www.global-view.com

Forex Forum

Saar KaL 10:56 GMT October 12, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

usdchf will short

0.8993
0.8994
0.8996
0.8995
0.8992

Boston eFX 10:52 GMT October 12, 2011
USD/CHF Risk Is Towards 0.8920 - BarCap
Reply   
(Dow Jones via eFXnews) USD/CHF risk is towards 0.8920, says Barclays Capital, given the pace of the down move once support at 0.9020 failed.

The bank says a break below....

USD/CHF Risk Is Towards 0.8920 - BarCap (full story)

Gen dk 10:38 GMT October 12, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex Blog 10:37 GMT October 12, 2011 Reply   
The USD was under broad pressure during the European session on Wednesday aided by continued rising risk appetite despite some bumps in Europe. Italy's PM's leadership was in doubt after a failed technical vote on a 2010 budget review while Slovakia failed to pass the expanded EFSF powers in its first vote. Nonetheless the EUR/USD climbed over a big figure to test above 1.3770. Factors that aided the risk appetite sentiment was the rise in China's markets after State-back support earlier in the week in its financial sector. EU Commissioner Rehn also provided some optimism after he noted that there was a consensus in Europe about what needed to be done was in the making.

TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Risk appetite finds traction in current environment

Haifa ac 10:35 GMT October 12, 2011
Follow up

Nice to see someone making good bucks while the herd is losing its arss!

this is what makes the game so challenging!

GVI Forex john 10:32 GMT October 12, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets

DAX +81

Futures:
DJIA +114
S&P +12

KL KL 10:31 GMT October 12, 2011
gold

ab

I have initiated Short and SAR at 1687....good enough for a double top short term for 2 hours maybe.... Locking in 100 pips and letting it run. I think I can trust my AI broker trading platform these days..... set to take profit at 1678....the reshort abover 1693.....


ok cover all here 1685....scared to depend on AI broker cheater system....can sleep soundly now....move short to 1710 and sleep Thermo at 1720.....

waiting to short Dow 11535.....and FTSE and Audusd.....wow lots of things to short......have to focus ....rather than share my thoughts......

van Gecko 10:28 GMT October 12, 2011
Q4 "Quantitative Easy Slide"

ab.. long time no see.. hope you are well..

1.4288~1.3188 "Quantitative Easy Slide" in the bank.. :)
now 1.3777~1.3888 "Quantitative Easy Slide II" to 1.2777~1.2888 is another great risk adjusted pippy turkey for M/T SOB'ers in the making..
Cheerios

GVI Forex john 10:23 GMT October 12, 2011
ALERT- Japan Machinery Orders

- Just posting the Japanese data because of the unexpected strength in monthly machinery orders (+11.0%).

Haifa ac 10:22 GMT October 12, 2011
yen

Yes
It is a new script of Akira Kurosawa-- new version of Rashomon.
Otherwise known as KAMPO and BOJ total control of that instrument!

GVI Forex john 10:21 GMT October 12, 2011
ALERT- Japan Machinery Orders
Reply   

-- Much Earlier Data --
JP Machinery Orders August 2011
mm: +11.0% vs. +4.90% exp. vs. -8.20% prev.
yy: +2.1% vs. +3.60% exp. vs. +4.0% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john 10:19 GMT October 12, 2011
Global-View D.O.G. Iindex

Global-View D.O.G. index seems to find support around the 0.500 line and resistance at 0.5500. Support at the 0.5000 line has been pretty clear. Resistance is yet to have been as firmly established.

Bris SNS 10:05 GMT October 12, 2011
EURUSD
Reply   
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 138.30 Target: 137.50 Stop: 138.50

limit sell order placed at 138.30

BLR virgoan 10:05 GMT October 12, 2011
Follow up
Reply   
Closed half my euro position( average buy 1.3250 ) at 1.38 for 550 pips profit. Will close the remaining at 1.39 with a stop placed at 1.3730. Happy trading!

BLR virgoan 06:43 GMT October 4, 2011
Follow up EUR/USD: Reply
Picked up a truck load of EUR/USD. Will add more on dips. Having a flexible stop at 1.2950. Nightmarish bear run should end soon. Happy trading!

BLR virgoan 09:11 GMT September 27, 2011
EUR/USD: Reply
Going long in EUR/USD ( cmp 1.3497 ) with a slightly medium term view. Will buy on dips from here. Expecting a target of 1.39


Boston eFX 10:00 GMT October 12, 2011
Sell Further Rebounds In GBP/USD - Morgan Stanley
Reply   
(Dow Jones via eFXnews)Sell further rebounds in GBP/USD, says Morgan Stanley, which expects talk of extending QE further to undermine support for the pair.

"We continue to......

Sell Further Rebounds In GBP/USD - Morgan Stanley (full story)

sofia kaprikorn 09:57 GMT October 12, 2011
fade the blade

just as a reference we have solid Res on EUR/USD at 1.3836 (July Low) and 1.3855 (50% of 1.4560-1.3149).

GBP/USD Res at 1.5778 (July Low).

GVI Forex john 09:56 GMT October 12, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets

- CNBC FFT saying that there will be an INTERNAL vote on EFSF in Slovakia today that will set the stage for a Parliamentary vote on Thursday. The thinking is that EFSF will pass. Thus was behind the jump in the DAX a little while ago.

GVI Forex john 09:55 GMT October 12, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets
Reply   

  • Key Items-  US- 10-yr Auction, Fed Minutes.

  • The USD has turned sharply lower early on Wednesday. There appears to have been no special catalyst other than having been overbought  with just about every analyst we are aware of turning bullish. The EUR is up vs. the USD and on most of its major trading crosses. 

  • Traders waited all day Tuesday for the Slovak vote on the July 21 amendments to the EFSF agreement. Slovakia is the final country needed to approve the accord. The vote failed, but is expected to pass later in the week.

  • Third quarter earnings season for the U.S. started Tuesday with the Alcoa report. Analysts have taken note of the fact that there have been scant pre-earning warnings this time around.

  • The Fed Minutes related to Operation Twist will be released today and should be closely scrutinized..

GVI Forex Blog 09:53 GMT October 12, 2011 Reply   
Key Items- US- 10-yr Auction, Fed Minutes. The USD has turned sharply lower early on Wednesday. There appears to have been no special catalyst other than having been overbought with just about every analyst we are aware of turning bullish. The EUR is up vs. the USD and on most of its major trading crosses.

Forex Trade Talk 10:00 GMT 12 October 2011

sofia kaprikorn 09:44 GMT October 12, 2011
fade the blade
Reply   
some minor counter-trend positions entered:

Short EUR/USD 1.3801
Short GBP/USD 1.5758

hk ab 09:41 GMT October 12, 2011
eur
Reply   
the censored must be very close so that the big names need to push away all the weak stops above.

GVI Forex john 09:40 GMT October 12, 2011
Global-View D.O.G. Iindex
Reply   
09:45 GMT (Global-View.com) October 12- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is opening in North America at .5205, -0.27% from its Tuesday close (-3.26% ytd).

As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7545, -0.07% (-3.05% ytd). The forex index is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.

Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is currently worth .1708, -1.47% (-15.80% ytd).

Against crude, it is at 0.5178, -0.31% (+6.16% ytd). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is set against levels from the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).

D.O.G. Homepage

sofia kaprikorn 09:36 GMT October 12, 2011
usd/jpy

I closed my 76.70 long in the USD/JPY after the slide - averaged with a buy around 55 and 38 and exited at B/E at 76.63.

It's interesting as a self -observation as I was internally assuming this tight range was an accident waiting to happen and still didn't act to manage the exposure accordingly until I was forced to.

Anyway it was a great learning experience as I stayed with the position for nearly 2 weeks as there was no movement, which is also an asset as opposed to over-trading.

----

now looking to enter on some over-extended conditions in more active ccy pairs.

Syd 09:34 GMT October 12, 2011
UK unemployment total reaches 17-year high
Reply   
UK unemployment rose by 114,000 between June and August to 2.57 million, a 17-year high, according to official figures.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business

Oh lets buy the pound good bad news !!

hk ab 09:30 GMT October 12, 2011
gold
Reply   
unload the small entry of gold long from 1675.8 here. Keep the rest.

hk ab 09:29 GMT October 12, 2011
eur
Reply   
forced buying?

hk ab 09:27 GMT October 12, 2011
aud
Reply   
dangerous baby.

hk ab 09:24 GMT October 12, 2011
Q4 "Quantitative Easy Slide"

hi Gecko,

These unusal move usally tells something BIG will be unveiled soon.
small short eur here 1.3788 to balance my gold long position.

BSB Jelit Ambuyat 09:23 GMT October 12, 2011
eur

Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Sale @ 1.3800

van Gecko 09:18 GMT October 12, 2011
Q4 "Quantitative Easy Slide"

Euro setting up for another 10+ figure slide from 1.3777~1.3888 ..
1.29~1.27 turkeys are now being force fed in Euroland for the Thanksgiving & Christmas holidays.. fwiwW



hk ab 09:15 GMT October 12, 2011
eur
Reply   
possible that mkt maker clear out all eur weak shorts for the later part of the game.

When things are pushed more towards the margin, the stretch will return.

BeERLIN Neugierig 09:14 GMT October 12, 2011
gold

jews rejews giant way to recycle Bezirk genAu zionist hood

Israel Dil 09:11 GMT October 12, 2011
Will the French AAA survive? (the joker play)


so, the joker play nears. Euro did not see the low of the year yet.

gl/gt

PAR 09:08 GMT October 12, 2011
Will the French AAA survive? (the joker play)

If the French banks dont pay out on the CDS on european debt they sold the French AAA can survive.

Imho all CDS on European debt are worthless as not a single issuer is willing or able to pay in case of a credit even.

CDS on European debt is just a gigantic scam.

Boston eFX 09:05 GMT October 12, 2011
Technical Gold Traders Sitting Out Of Market
Reply   
(Dow Jones via eFXnews) Technical gold traders are staying on the sidelines of the market amid thin trading volumes, according to ANZ analysts. The house says "there appears to be a reassessment in ...

Technical Gold Traders Sitting Out Of Market (full story)

HK Kevin 09:04 GMT October 12, 2011
Sell EUR/USD
Reply   
Worth a test based on the 380 pips trading range of last week. Sold at 1.3770 wit stop at 1.3829.

HK [email protected] 09:02 GMT October 12, 2011
Now 1683/4 is the issue for gold
Reply   
Solid consolidation around this level needed to open the way to attack 1700.

GVI Forex john 09:01 GMT October 12, 2011
ALERT- EZ Industrial Production
Reply   

-- ALERT --
EZ Industrial Production August 2011
mm: +1.2% vs. -0.7% exp. vs. +1.1%r prev.
yy: +5.3% vs. +2.20% exp. vs. +4.40%r prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

constantinopal ish 08:57 GMT October 12, 2011

Reply   
Things that should make you go hmmm- € now about 350 away from the 200 hour ma. Stretched.

Israel Dil 08:57 GMT October 12, 2011
Will the French AAA survive? (the joker play)
Reply   
According to Eurostat, Germans paid the highest amount to save their banks

Süddeutsche Zeitung cites figures compiled by Eurostat according to which Germany paid the highest amounts to protect its banking sector from collapse during 2008 and 2009. German taxpayers paid €38.9bn, the Irish paid €35.7bn, the British €15.1bn. France, Spain, Italy and Greece actually all made a profits from the bank rescue measures ranging from €2.4bn in the case of France to €0.1bn in Italy. The story concludes that in the case of Germany a likely second round of bank rescues is likely to be much less expensive because German banks are not as exposed as their French counterparts which threaten to cost huge sums to the French budget. (But not if they go to 9% core tier one). In this context Le Monde has a half page story on the consequences of a French bank bailout that runs under the title: Will the French AAA survive?


Israel Dil 08:55 GMT October 12, 2011
BNP Paribas
Reply   
BNP Paribas CEO Prot refuses to authorize interview on the financial crisis

Handelsblatt exposes the perverse interview authorization procedures that are common practise in Germany. The paper did an interview with BNP Paribas CEO Baudouin Prot on September 7, 2011 talking about the financial crisis. Subsequently the paper sent BNP the interview so that Prot could authorize it, which he has not done on the grounds that the financial crisis made matters too delicate. Now the paper ran out of patience and published the questions of the interview with the photos of Prot and the reporters talking and left blanks for the answers that Prot gave, but did not authorize.


hk ooozmeeh 08:54 GMT October 12, 2011
gold

one way or the other, gold of course will break this bottom congestion,.. as of now, buyers has the slight advantage, gl gt

Syd 08:53 GMT October 12, 2011
OECD Gurria Reiterates ECB Can Bring Down Rates
Reply   
OECD Gurria Reiterates ECB Can Bring Down Rates
OECD Gurria: Stress Test Credibility Wearing Thin

U.K. total unemployment hits highest level since 1994

EUR lifted by hope not reality, BNP Paribas says, because there remains scant evidence of agreement among euro zone policymakers over some of the most contentious issues. "With three weeks still to go before the [G-20] Cannes deadline, we see more short-term downside risk than upside for the EUR," it says. EUR/USD is at 1.3730, after touching a new high for October

hk ab 08:49 GMT October 12, 2011
eur
Reply   
sentiment suddenly becoming mono-eur bullish.

Syd 08:47 GMT October 12, 2011
Thomson Reuters' FX Dealing System Suffers Outage-Traders
Reply   
The currency dealing system owned by Thomson Reuters Corp. has suffered an outage Wednesday, according to traders. Two traders said that the key interbank trading system went down shortly after 0830 GMT. By 0842 GMT, it was still down.
Thomson Reuters could not immediately be reached for comment.

Israel Dil 08:47 GMT October 12, 2011
gold

ib

you show very selective mindset, better you sell here euros as market did not act on Italy's downgrade , yet!

and market will do so very soon :-)

gl/gt

GVI Forex john 08:46 GMT October 12, 2011
ALERT- U.K. Employment
Reply   

-- ALERT --
U.K. August/September Employment
Claimant Count: 17.5K vs. 25.0K exp. vs. 19.1Kr prev.
ILO Rate: 8.1% vs. 8.0% exp. vs. 7.9% prev.
Avg Earn (3mo): +2.8% vs. 2.9% exp. vs. +3.1%r prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Minneapolis DRS2 08:42 GMT October 12, 2011
USD/JPY ?

If this is a USD meltdown, then I'm BUYING.

Syd 08:42 GMT October 12, 2011
Sell ZAR on Rallies Says BNPP
Reply   
Sell ZAR on rallies, BNP Paribas says, given that markets are likely to remain susceptible to a renewed deterioration in risk appetite. ZAR has been particularly sensitive to swings in risk sentiment, says BNPP. "Additionally, the SARB remains one of the few central banks in the CEEMEA region that has remained on the sidelines in terms of direct foreign-exchange intervention and we don´t expect this to change anytime soon," says BNP Paribas

Shenzhen JW 08:41 GMT October 12, 2011
gold

Same to you!

深圳市弘欣顺光电有限公司

Paris ib 08:39 GMT October 12, 2011
USD/JPY ?
Reply   
So much for the idea that that cross is dead in the water.

Can this be the start of an across the board USD meltdown?

Shenzhen JW 08:38 GMT October 12, 2011
gold, eur

I'm study here!

深圳市弘欣顺光电有限公司

Shenzhen JW 08:36 GMT October 12, 2011
gold

Study here!!

深圳市弘欣顺光电有限公司

Paris ib 08:34 GMT October 12, 2011
gold

Sorry Merkel made a statement !

hk ab 08:33 GMT October 12, 2011
gold
Reply   
bc mentioned that gold needs several weeks to change the tide. Thus, even though the 1680 is not overcome today. It's still possible that the gold boat is already half-turned.

Good job for all gold bugs.

Paris ib 08:31 GMT October 12, 2011
gold

Merket made a statement to the market.... saying everything will be done and dealt, nothing to worry about.

BERLIN Neugierig 08:30 GMT October 12, 2011
gold, eur

Did any news just come out?


i'm stoked tm

Paris ib 08:29 GMT October 12, 2011
gold

Fitch just downgraded some Spanish and Italian banks.

The ratings agencies have become contra indicators in a big way.

hk ab 08:28 GMT October 12, 2011
gold

I just can't imagine why people still chooses eur but not aud or others in fron of the European banks crisis.

BUT I do agree that the focus will turn to US debt again.

hk ab 08:26 GMT October 12, 2011
gold

KL, I just added long at 1675.8 let's see.

Miami JN 08:24 GMT October 12, 2011
gold, eur

Did any news just come out?

KL KL 08:23 GMT October 12, 2011
gold

ab

Ninja turned bullish gold for euro yankees session.....since would not go under 1660 I covered and SAR long 1665...have stops 1669 now....

see.... I change mind very quickly...and can change again if i see nice tail...so waiting now to SAR and short above 1688 again....maybe higher....things change when news flow....

Syd 08:20 GMT October 12, 2011
TradeTheNews.com Denmark banks not likely to meet regulations; sees bank collapses - financial press
Reply   
Denmark banks not likely to meet regulations; sees bank collapses - financial press
- Up to 17 Danish banks lenders (13 Danish banks, four lenders) are currently unable to meet tougher risk, exposure rules to be implemented from 2013.
- The coming months could also see several small banks face collapse.

TradeTheNews.com

hk ab 08:20 GMT October 12, 2011
gold, eur

this could be the last wave 5 leg from 1.3150 long though.

hk ooozmeeh 08:19 GMT October 12, 2011
Gold

Flight to quality trade seems slowly developing in Gold, as it closes in to the upper end of its consolidation range. Needs a clear and convincing break above 1680 to resume its longer term uptrend. Above 1700 will be different page for gold. IMVHO, gl gt

sofia kaprikorn 08:16 GMT October 12, 2011
usd/jpy

the other interesting thing is the JPY crosses are very bullish but now they are driven by the other majors as opposed to the prior arrangement when they were buoyed by the JPY selling.

normally the usd/jpy would be going north in risk on environment and yen crosses bullish but it seems some other correlation is in place now.

hk ab 08:16 GMT October 12, 2011
eur
Reply   
sorry for the multipile post.

hk ab 08:14 GMT October 12, 2011
gold, eur

all C9 of my bucket shop is now very happy now.

Should think about buyign with them from now on.

hk ab 08:14 GMT October 12, 2011
gold, eur

all C9 of my bucket shop is now very happy now.

Should think about buyign with them from now on.

hk ab 08:14 GMT October 12, 2011
gold, eur

all C9 of my bucket shop is now very happy now.

Should think about buyign with them from now on.

hk ab 08:14 GMT October 12, 2011
gold, eur

all C9 of my bucket shop is now very happy now.

Should think about buyign with them from now on.

hk ab 08:14 GMT October 12, 2011
gold, eur

all C9 of my bucket shop is now very happy now.

Should think about buyign with them from now on.

HK Kevin 08:12 GMT October 12, 2011
gold, eur

Market sentiment favours EUR breaking above 1.37 to kick out weak short. 1.3730 may be seen but I don't ecpect any follow through.

hk ab 08:09 GMT October 12, 2011
gold

ok caught small gold at 1675.9

Saar KaL 08:08 GMT October 12, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

Long Gold
TGT 1690

hk ab 08:07 GMT October 12, 2011
gold
Reply   
put a small net to add on the gold long position at 1676.... Hope it hits.

Saar KaL 08:03 GMT October 12, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

1.3650 is a bottom IMO
EURUSD wants 1.3730

BERLN Neugierig 08:03 GMT October 12, 2011
NOIDEA

thnks joe news no cheap jews here

HK [email protected] 08:02 GMT October 12, 2011
FED
Reply   
The FED is just printing too much money.

No changes under the sun:) (and so the ECB) so what one may expect.

JIM ROGERS CNBC Interview October 10th 2011

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PnozPXgHYeM

Cambridge Joe 07:59 GMT October 12, 2011
NOIDEA

BERLIN Neugierig 07:53

Sorry I didn't quite catch your banter old chap, but I have eurusd to have southerly tendencies from around 08:50 GMT.

Obviously anything can happen, but for me, south it is.

glgt.

sofia kaprikorn 07:58 GMT October 12, 2011
usd/jpy

hello,

does anybody know if the tight range in USD/JPY might be connected to the china currency bill as Japan and China are large trading partners and the attempt to appreciate the Yuan value might have the same effect on the Yen, which is unfortunate for the as YEN is at a historic high so far.

any vies or info as the regular net search doesn't offer much insight on this extreme tightness for the last 2 weeks.

hk ab 07:56 GMT October 12, 2011
gold
Reply   
need to pay attention that Yankees didn't sell gold last night hard but the european mkt, thus, I think this round of upmove is due to stop cleaning more. But the stop cleaning can lead to a break of all those 168x barrier.

BERLIN Neugierig 07:53 GMT October 12, 2011
NOIDEA
Reply   


EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Capped 360 osELLtracRizer eur-usd

hk ooozmeeh 07:51 GMT October 12, 2011
Gold

placed a trending order, pending buy @ 1686 TP 1840 s/l 1667

hk ab 07:50 GMT October 12, 2011
gold
Reply   
KL, are you hiding at 1678?

and be careful, gold and eur may have a divergence here....this gold rocket maybe due to fear more.

need to watch Xau/eur

Syd 07:42 GMT October 12, 2011
Spanish Banks Fall After S&P, Fitch Cuts Ratings; Moody's Eyed
Reply   
MADRID (Dow Jones)--Spanish banking stocks fell early Wednesday after Standard & Poor's Ratings Services and Fitch Ratings downgraded the country's leading lenders, citing dimming economic growth prospects, a depressed property market and turbulence in capital markets.

In reports issued late Tuesday, the two credit rating agencies said they are keeping the negative outlook on all the banks. S&P said it could downgrade some banks further if the economy deteriorates more than it expects or if the "adverse impact on banks' financial profile is greater" than expected.

The third large ratings agency, Moody's Investors Service, may follow suit soon, after it put Spain's Aa2 sovereign rating and those of the country's banks on review for downgrade in July, credit analysts at Daiwa Capital Markets said. Moody's officials weren't immediately available for comment.

Standard & Poor's cut its ratings for 10 Spanish banks, including Santander and BBVA, and smaller banks like Bankinter SA (BKT.MC) and Banco Sabadell.

Fitch lowered its ratings for six banks, saying the catalyst for its downgrades was an Oct. 7 decision to downgrade Spain's sovereign debt to AA- from AA+. It highlighted that the deterioration of funding conditions for the Spanish sovereign debt amid a deepening euro-zone crisis has "contaminated funding costs and access for all banks

hk ab 07:42 GMT October 12, 2011
gold, eur
Reply   
gold and eur may hv divergence today......

hk ab 07:40 GMT October 12, 2011
gold
Reply   
buy gold and buy euro here to challenge the barrier again later?
short term chart turns bullish.

HK [email protected] 07:40 GMT October 12, 2011
Gold: 1678 may be on the menu
Reply   
.

hk ab 07:37 GMT October 12, 2011
eur
Reply   
any news we can manipulate today to move the mkt?

hk ab 07:21 GMT October 12, 2011
eur
Reply   
let's see what news can we have today.....

hk ab 07:18 GMT October 12, 2011
eur

rana, in the bucket shop in hk (small fx retailers) I saw many housewives entered the stox and eur 'cos they think the correction is over and eur can ride from here to 1.4x......

Thus, they don't mind to lose a few hundred pips... lol

tokyo rana 07:10 GMT October 12, 2011
eur

many peoples long usd$ so usd$ is weak....when everyone is bullish markeet go down other wise keep pushing up...

hk ab 07:03 GMT October 12, 2011
eur
Reply   
big players want to give more pain to the c9? but eur DOES pointing 1.37 though..... everyone "says" so......

Dr. Qindex, may I ask for your generous view on eur today?

hk ab 06:55 GMT October 12, 2011
gold
Reply   
KL, I will sit back and just keep hold on all these gold longs.

hk ab 06:47 GMT October 12, 2011
gold
Reply   
KL, gd call, but I expect more surprises later.

hk ab 06:41 GMT October 12, 2011
eur
Reply   
c9 gets very excited now since they found their eur SAR survives again....

hk ab 06:38 GMT October 12, 2011
eur
Reply   
the gold drags every cousins up.

The gold longs are very safe, still.

KL, in your radar now. ARe you watching?

BSB Jelit Ambuyat 06:21 GMT October 12, 2011
" Trade Ideas "

Buy
Entry: Target: 1.001 Stop:

Heading @ 1.001

GVI Forex Blog 06:18 GMT October 12, 2011 Reply   
(AU) AUSTRALIA OCT WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE M/M: 0.4% V 8.1% PRIOR; CONFIDENCE INDEX: 97.2 V 96.9 PRIOR

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Equities mixed, Hong Kong and Shanghai

Lahore FM 05:56 GMT October 12, 2011
" Trade Ideas "

Sell AUDUSD
Entry: 0.9938 Target: Stop: 0.9970

sold now.

last short was 82 + on partial close.

Syd 05:34 GMT October 12, 2011
Count Even Less on China Now
Reply   
For months now, the hope has been that lower Chinese inflation would provide the scope for lower interest rates and a way for Beijing to escape a nasty pop in the country’s property bubble. But, as the bubble starts to burst and the economy starts to shake, high food prices and the need to preserve social stability could well prevent the People’s Bank of China from easing policy and securing a soft landing.

So, look for rate cuts to help property prices?

Forget it. Especially when food and the risk of social instability are at stake. This is China, remember. The economic equations that may seem to work obviously elsewhere, do not necessarily do the trick here. So Beijing is stuck between a rock and a hard place, unable to respond to the bursting of the property bubble with lower interest rates because of the threat that would pose to already high food prices.


PBOC advisor Li Daokui warned some time ago that inflation is “most likely chronic.”

hk ab 05:16 GMT October 12, 2011
eur
Reply   
mkt is very calm. Unlike few days ago......

Syd 05:14 GMT October 12, 2011
TradeTheNews.com Greek aid not to be paid
Reply   
EU's Juncker: Next tranche of Greek aid not to be paid if Troika report finds missing targets - German press

TradeTheNews.com

Boston eFX 04:59 GMT October 12, 2011
Gold To Test $1,705/Oz In Near Term - MF Global
Reply   
(Dow Jones via eFXnews) Gold will trend higher and test $1,705 a troy ounce in the next fortnight, according to analysts at MF Global.

The yellow metal will rise as investors remain concerned over the financial health of the euro zone and as physical demand rises, the house says; "focus will remain on...

Gold To Test $1,705/Oz In Near Term - MF Global (Full Story)

Syd 04:54 GMT October 12, 2011
China's debt spree returns to haunt
Reply   
Bail-outs are coming thick and fast in China. In less than a week the authorities have had to step in to prop up the banks, rescue the insolvent railway system and save the near bankrupt city of Wenzhou from a spectacular debt crash.
China's finance ministry is quietly intervening to underwrite China's railway system.
Bejing is negotiating a $15bn bail-out for the enterprise hub of Wenzhou south of Shanghai, where panic has set off a credit crunch for small business and builders. China's press has been riveted by tales of debtors hiding in the hills to evade creditors.

If only a few debt-ridden companies collapse, the financial trouble can ripple through the entire credit-connected community. The domino-effect started to endanger the entire system in July."

It is proving harder than expected for the central bank to manage a calibrated "soft-landing" after letting rip with credit to counter the Great Recession. The loan spree raised credit from 100pc to almost 200pc of GDP (on IMF estimates), including off-books trusts, letters of credit and sub-radar loans from Hong Kong.

GVI Forex Blog 03:49 GMT October 12, 2011 Reply   
The US markets had closed mixed yesterday. Dow (11416.30) was down 0.15% while the Nasdaq (2583.03) was up 0.66%.

Morning Briefing : 12-oct-2011 -0340 GMT

Syd 03:25 GMT October 12, 2011
ECONOMISTS are becoming increasingly confident the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates
Reply   
ANZ's head of Australian economics, Ivan Colhoun, said the RBA was likely to cut rates to help safeguard the economy against the slower global growth as a result of the European debt crisis.The interbank futures market is convinced that the RBA will aggressively slash rates, starting next month. The likelihood of a Cup Day rate cut is 1345 per cent -- a more than certain prospect.

Boston eFX 03:10 GMT October 12, 2011
Nymex Crude Biased Up N/T If $83.97 Support Holds
Reply   
(Dow Jones via eFXnews) Nymex crude is likely to trade with risks skewed to the upside after hitting a 14-session high of $86.64/bbl Tuesday, as long as prices can hold above Tuesday's low of $83.97, Dow Jones technical analysis shows.

The daily continuation chart is....

Nymex Crude Biased Up N/T If $83.97 Support Holds (full story)

HK [email protected] 02:55 GMT October 12, 2011
Oil above 90 very possible.
Reply   
Depends much on the political response to the event mentioned below.

Syd 02:48 GMT October 12, 2011
NORMAN LAMONT on why the single currency was never going to work - and how any attempt to save it no
Reply   
Mrs Merkel has already been to the Bundestag twice to appeal for money to rescue the euro. She is unlikely to want to go a third time, particularly as increasing numbers of Germans feel they made a historic error in giving up the Deutschmark to subsidise less efficient countries in the south.

The economic risks are considerable. Once the losses of the bailout fund went above a certain level, it would endanger the solvency of the ECB, which stands behind the eurozone and its banking system.
The scale of the euro crisis has made one thing abundantly plain: Europe, Britain and the rest of the world would be better off if the euro had never happened. It would be preferable if it were now dismantled in an orderly manner.

In addition, the ECB has lent huge sums, possibly more than €400  billion to European banks that can’t raise money themselves.

So who will bail out the ECB, if and when it gets into trouble?

The answer, ludicrously, is the eurozone countries that are themselves being rescued by the ECB!

It would be farcical if it were not so serious. Nineteen per cent of the ECB’s capital is provided by Italy, a country whose debt levels have risen to 120 per cent of GDP (as opposed to 60 per cent in Britain).


This euro rescue strategy has already meant, for example, that Ireland and Portugal borrowed money to lend to Greece; then Portugal underwrote the bailout loan to Ireland, before requesting a bailout itself.


It is no wonder that a distinguished Argentinian central banker has described the proposals for rescuing the euro as a gigantic Ponzi scheme — an investment scam like the one used by the disgraced U.S. financier Bernie Madoff to defraud his clients of billions, whereby bumper rates promised on investments were funded by the deposits of new investors.

There comes a point where the political costs of rescuing the euro are too high. As Winston Churchill once observed, if we do not face reality, reality will face us.

HK [email protected] 02:41 GMT October 12, 2011
Alleged Iran plot could have been trigger for war in Middle East
Reply   
State-sponsored or a rogue act, the killing of Saudi ambassador in the US would have ensured the Middle East went up in flames.

Julian Borger
guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 11 October 2011 18.55 EDT

Whoever was behind the Washington plot was ready to start a war in the Middle East. The region is already on the brink of conflict over Iran's nuclear programme, with Israel increasingly twitchy over the progress Tehran is making towards a capacity to make nuclear weapons.

Leaked US State Department cables also make clear that the Saudi king, Abdullah, has repeatedly urged the US to "cut off the head of the snake" and attack Iran.

Against that backdrop, the assassination of the Saudi ambassador in Washington, with mass American casualties and perhaps an attack on the Israeli embassy too, would have ensured that the region went up in flames.

The US accuses the Quds Force (QF), the external operations wing of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, of being behind the plot. Given the hierarchy of the Iranian regime, such a huge undertaking would have required a direct order from the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who personally controls the QF.......

I think oil may soon jerk.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/oct/11/alleged-iran-plot-middle-east-war?newsfeed=true

HK [email protected] 02:36 GMT October 12, 2011
Foiled plot increases Saudi-Iranian tension
Reply   
Don't mind it yet, an issue still in it's infancy(but likely to be flamed by the US:)

Foiled plot increases Saudi-Iranian tension.


Tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran, already high, received new strain Oct. 11 with allegations of a foiled plot linked with Iran to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the US and to commit other acts of terrorism.
A criminal complaint filed in the federal court in the Southern District of New York says Manssor Arbabsiar, an Iranian-American, and Gholam Shakuri, identified as one of his “Iranian-based coconspirators,” plotted to use explosives to kill the ambassador, Adel Al-Jubeir, possibly at a US restaurant.
The complaint says Shakuri is a member of the Iranian Qods Force, a branch of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard that “conducts sensitive covert operations abroad, including terrorist attacks, assassinations, and kidnappings and provides weapons and training to Iran’s terrorist and militant allies.”
According to the complaint, Arbabsiar arranged to hire an undercover agent posing as a member of a Mexican drug cartel to conduct the assassination for $1.5 million. The complaint says Arbabsiar had discussed with the agent attacking an embassy of Saudi Arabia. Arbabsiar allegedly told the agent that “his associates in Iran had discussed a number of violent missions” for the agent and his associates. The complaint indicates other possible targets included “foreign government facilities associated with Saudi Arabia and with another country” inside and outside the US.
Arbabsiar was arrested Sept. 29 at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York. Shakuri remains at large.

http://www.ogj.com/articles/2011/10/foiled-plot-increases-saudi-iranian-tension.html

Syd 02:22 GMT October 12, 2011
Almost half of £1 million Chinese auction bids unpaid six months after they were lodged
Reply   
Almost half of all £1 million-plus bids placed in China's auction houses remained unpaid six months after they were lodged, it has emerged.
telegraph

Richland QC Mailman 02:19 GMT October 12, 2011
Sell AUD/USD

Great timing of liquidation Kevin. Sold 2 units too @9938 then closed all 9879 this Asian morning.

I think there will be more selling opportunities today. Will go back to the market in the US session. Have a good day.

Syd 02:17 GMT October 12, 2011
CHina
Reply   
Credit Suisse raises Chinese bad loan ratio estimate from 4.5-5% to 8-12%

hk ab 02:08 GMT October 12, 2011
eur
Reply   
I will not go long until the C9 stoploss is hit.
Right now, they are still full of faith. Let's see what their faces shown when eur comes back to 1.34 and 1.33 area.....

Richland QC Mailman 01:58 GMT October 12, 2011
+630 net pips gained in 4 days
Reply   
Hi folks. Good morning. If you were in a trader's shoes, after realizing +630 pip gain which doubled his equity, what will you do?

Withdraw everything, rest and stay in the sidelines for a week. Or just continue trading? Or probably withdraw just a portion?

HK Kevin 01:44 GMT October 12, 2011
Sell AUD/USD

HK Kevin 18:05 GMT October 11, 2011
Sell AUD/USD: Reply
Limit order sell AUD/USD at 1.0000 filled. Stop at 1.0039 and target 0.9920. Good night
Just covered at 0.9878. More than I expected.

Syd 01:38 GMT October 12, 2011
No Faith In The October Rally
Reply   
FOREX.com does not believe this month's rally is sustainable, predicting USD strength and commodity and equity market weakness into year-end.

LINK

Open 01:33 GMT October 12, 2011 Reply   

EUR/USD Daily Asia Outlook 10/12

Open 01:33 GMT October 12, 2011 Reply   

GBP/USD Daily Asia Outlook 10/12

Open 01:33 GMT October 12, 2011 Reply   

USD/CAD Daily Asia Outlook 10/12

Open 01:33 GMT October 12, 2011 Reply   

USD/CHF Daily Asia Outlook 10/12

Syd 01:29 GMT October 12, 2011
Has Belgium set an insolvency appointment?
Reply   
Dexia’s bad assets will only undermine Belgium’s already-stressed bottom line. Credit rating agencies are already warning Belgium that further downgrades are all but inevitable. Combine the pre-Dexia national debt, which stood right at 100 per cent of GDP, with the higher financing costs and increased liabilities with which the bailout will saddle Belgium, and Northern Europe’s weakest state just moved firmly in the direction of needing its own bailout.

Northern Europe’s weakest state just moved firmly in the direction of needing its own bailout.

hk ab 01:16 GMT October 12, 2011
eur
Reply   
there would be more squealing of the C9 SARers @1.3660.....

Syd 01:14 GMT October 12, 2011
Surrounded by Europe's standing armies
Reply   
Thomas Jefferson definitely got it right 200 years ago when he warned that banks are more dangerous than standing armies, and that if allowed to control the issue of currency they will “deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless”. .

The tussle in Europe over Greece is pivotal but it looks one-sided. The politicians simply cannot withstand another big market reversal and recession; the standing armies have them surrounded.



Now the people themselves are rising up against the plutocracy, with protestors filling Wall Street.

Syd 00:59 GMT October 12, 2011
Why Europe's Plan Is Dead Before Arrival
Reply   
http://seekingalpha.com/article/298926-why-europe-s-plan-is-dead-before-arrival?source=kizur

Boston eFX 00:56 GMT October 12, 2011
Funding Strains Still To Weigh On EUR/USD
Reply   
(Dow Jones via eFXnews) Even as FX traders shrug off the Slovakia "no" vote on an extended EFSF and an improvement in market sentiment continues to take hold, traders in Asia are still .....

Funding Strains Still To Weigh On EUR/USD (full story)

Syd 00:29 GMT October 12, 2011
Spanish Bank Manager Caught Robbing
Reply   
His Own Bank While Wearing Fake Moustache And Wig

link

Syd 00:23 GMT October 12, 2011
Australian comsumer confidence
Reply   
Australian comsumer confidence M/M 0.4% V 8.1% prior

Syd 00:15 GMT October 12, 2011
50% Greek Debt Haircut Will Open Pandora's Box
Reply   
A 50 percent haircut for Greece will be a game-changing precedent. If I’m another troubled EU economy, like Ireland, Portugal, Spain, or Italy, I’m going to fight tooth and nail for the same prescription. And why wouldn’t they? Here’s a listing of the five aforementioned troubled countries and half of their debt burden:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/298960-50-greek-debt-haircut-will-open-pandora-s-box?source=kizur

Syd 00:11 GMT October 12, 2011
Iceberg spotted, summit convened
Reply   
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/10/euro-zone-crisis-1

Syd 00:06 GMT October 12, 2011
S&P and Fitch downgrade a slew of Spanish banks as Europe talks EuroTARP
Reply   
Last week Moody's cut the ratings of 12 British lenders, including Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group. This week the other two ratings agencies, S&P and Fitch cut the ratings of 10 Spanish lenders, including BBVA and Santander.

S&P made the following downgrades:

 




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