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Forex Forum Archive for 10/19/2011

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Syd 23:42 GMT October 19, 2011
*WSJ: Brazil Cuts Rates Again, As It Tries To Spark Growth
Reply   
SAO PAULO, Brazil (Dow Jones)--Brazil's central bank cut the country's benchmark interest rate for the second time in two months, doubling down on its bet that a slowing economy is more troubling than high inflation.

dc CB 23:35 GMT October 19, 2011
Earnings?
Reply   
One of the more interesting stories today was embedded in Morgan Stanley’s earnings report. The street expected the company to earn $.30 but the company beat with $1.15 based on an accounting adjustment. How did that work?

The company has debt, and plenty of it, but they adopted the unique DVA (Debt Value Adjustment) ploy.

It goes like this. The company’s debt has become worth much less in the open market. If they bought the debt back in the open market they would gain $3.4 billion in profits—as CEO James Gorman stated: “It’s a bizarre accounting anomaly”. I’ll say! Without this adjustment the company earned $.03. This is the kind of stuff going around these days that doesn’t pass the sniff test.

I wonder if you could perform this trickery as a small business person trying to borrow some money from a bank like Morgan Stanley. Not a chance in censored would be the answer.

Phoenix Sun 23:21 GMT October 19, 2011
eurusd
Reply   
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3800-50 Target: 1.3650-00 Stop: 1.3880 bid

Limit to the upside before the weekend

Syd 23:16 GMT October 19, 2011
Britain can’t save Europe, but we might still save ourselves
Reply   
The eurozone debt crisis is beyond the Continent’s leaders. Chancellor George Osborne needs to prepare for the worst.

www.telegraph.co.uk

Syd 23:00 GMT October 19, 2011
Bank collateral drying up in rush for security
Reply   
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e6f91fb8-fa51-11e0
-b70d-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1bGt22Dql

Fx Trading Discussion 22:55 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   

TRADING SIGNALS

Lahore FM 22:29 GMT October 19, 2011
" Trade Ideas "

Sell EURGBP
Entry: 0.8723 Target: 0.8220 Stop: later

sold.

Lahore FM 22:28 GMT October 19, 2011
" Trade Ideas "

Sell GBPUSD
Entry: 1.5799 Target: 1.5620 Stop: 1.5805 bid

Lahore FM 16:40:30 GMT - 10/19/2011

Sell GBPUSD
Entry: 1.5799 Target: 1.5620 Stop:
sold.
--
sl in now.

Boston eFX 22:22 GMT October 19, 2011
Deutsche Bank Poll Shows Market Braced For Summit Disappointment
Reply   
(Dow Jones via eFXnews) This weekend's summit of European Union leaders is likely to be disappointing, according to a client survey conducted by Deutsche Bank (DB), the world's biggest foreign exchange bank, and seen by Dow Jones Newswires Wednesday.

The survey of 149 market participants sent by FX analysts at Deutsche Bank to its clients showed.....

Deutsche Bank Poll Shows Market Braced For Summit Disappointment (full story)

Syd 22:17 GMT October 19, 2011
DJ Australia's Treasury: Risks From EU Sovereign Debt Woes Significant
Reply   
Australia's Fin Min: World Slowdown Still Hitting Budget Revenues
Australia's Treasury: Close Focus On EU Policy Talks
Australia Treasury Secretary: EU Failure Would Add To Econ Risks Australia Treasury Secretary: Can't Quantify Yet Budget Impact Of EU Woes

Italians Leave Fears of Debt Crisis to Others

sofia kaprikorn 22:17 GMT October 19, 2011
boj
Reply   
Buy USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

long usd/jpy 76.83

Syd 22:05 GMT October 19, 2011
Could you stomach a 2,600 point drop in the Dow?
Reply   
Anyone younger than their mid-40s probably doesn’t remember what happened 24 years ago today, since they were not yet out of college. This includes most mutual fund managers, by the way. But they should nevertheless study what happened on October 19, 1987

a day that came to be known as Black Monday.

dc CB 21:50 GMT October 19, 2011
European CDS Ban Sends 1 Year Greek Bond Yield To 188%
Reply   


Greek 1 Year bonds: the most liquid proxy for default in the absence of 1 Year CDS, closed at 183%, after hitting an all time high of 188%, following yesterday's 173% close.

To all those who bought 1 Year Greek bonds when yields hit 100% a month ago because "they just couldn't possibly drop any more, and you would double your money in one year guaranteed", condolences for the 50% loss.

ZH

GVI Forex john 21:22 GMT October 19, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets

- Headlines continued to flow after we finished the afternoon version of the daily. Bottom line, its looking like getting an agreement between the various parties is going to be very difficult by the weekend.
- Expect more of the same on Thursday and Friday.

Syd 21:21 GMT October 19, 2011
Ex-Greek Finance Minister Manos Says Default Likely
Reply   
Oct. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Stefanos Manos, former Greek finance and economy minister, discusses labor unrest in Greece and the outlook for a debt default. He speaks from Athens with Linzie Janis on Bloomberg Television's "Countdown."

(Source: Bloomberg)

GVI Forex john 21:12 GMT October 19, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets
Reply   

  • Key Items- GB- Retail Sales. US- Wkly Jobs, Philly Fed, Exist Homes.

  • Discussions between France, Germany and the ECB ahead of the weekend EU/EZ meetings generated considerable interest on Wednesday. There is considerable risk that leaders could disappoint the markets with a sub-optimal result. A key element of an agreement will be some sort of technique for leveraging the EFSF funds to something well above EUR 1 tln, but it appears that the ECB is balking at participating in underwriting EZ bonds. On Wednesday French President Sarkozy dropped everything to fly to Berlin at the last minute to meet with Chancellor Merkel and President Trichet.

  • We would not be surprised to see sharp market reactions to headlines (many misleading) before the close of business on Friday. The stakes for the weekend are high. Markets will be very displeased if something substantial is not announced before the Monday Far East market open.

  • In Greece, a 48 hour strike is underway protesting austerity moves. Some government workers are engaging in a "white out", whereby they show up at work but do nothing. Major pay cuts are not going down well within Greece.

  • BOE policy minutes released today were dovish and initially weighed on the GBP.

Syd 20:57 GMT October 19, 2011
Moody's Just Made 16 More Huge Downgrades In Spain
Reply   

Moody's Investors Service downgraded nine Spanish regions, two Basque provinces, and five government-related entities, a day after it downgraded Spanish sovereign debt.


remains on downgrade review.

This newest report confirms that the gravity of the debt crisis is deepening in Spain, one of the countries most vulnerable to banking contagion.


Here's the full release from Moody's.

Boston eFX 20:41 GMT October 19, 2011
MONEY TALKS: France Suffers Periphery Woes
Reply   
(Dow Jones via eFXnews) Yield spreads on French government bonds over their German equivalents have blown out.

Investors seem to have taken fright at the risk the French government will lose its triple-A rating as it is forced to bail out its banks in response to Europe's running sovereign-debt crisis. Spreads are now the highest they've been since the crisis in the exchange rate mechanism--the euro's precursor--in the early 1990s.

Certainly, investors are ....

MONEY TALKS: France Suffers Periphery Woes

Syd 20:40 GMT October 19, 2011
Leveraged ETF labels deserve study: SEC
Reply   
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The nation’s top watchdog for the multi-trillion-dollar asset management industry on Wednesday said serious consideration should be given to a suggestion that exchange-traded-funds that are leveraged and employ derivatives should be labeled as something other than ETFs.

(MarketWatch

GVI Forex john 20:32 GMT October 19, 2011
USD Piivot Points
Reply   

Pivots	EURUSD	USDJPY	USDCHF	GBPUSD	USDCAD	AUDUSD
Res 3	1.3982	77.13	0.9150	1.5993	1.0391	1.0464
Res 2	1.3926	76.99	0.9094	1.5920	1.0303	1.0408
Res 1	1.3836	76.90	0.9061	1.5843	1.0256	1.0313

Pivot	1.3780	76.76	0.9005	1.5770	1.0168	1.0257

Sup 1	1.3690	76.67	0.8972	1.5693	1.0121	1.0162
Sup 2	1.3634	76.53	0.8916	1.5620	1.0033	1.0106
Sup 3	1.3544	76.44	0.8883	1.5543	0.9986	1.0011

Open 20:22 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   

Thailand: Urgent appeal for help...

GVI Forex Blog 20:22 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   
Key Items- GB- Retail Sales. US- Wkly Jobs, Philly Fed, Exist Homes. Discussions between France, Germany and the ECB ahead of the weekend EU/EZ meetings generated considerable interest on Wednesday. There is considerable risk that leaders could disappoint the markets with a sub-optimal result. A key element of an agreement will be some sort of technique for leveraging the EFSF funds to something well above EUR 1 tln, but it appears that the ECB is balking at participating in underwriting EZ bonds. On Wednesday French President Sarkozy dropped everything to fly to Berlin at the last minute to meet with Chancellor Merkel and President Trichet.

Forex Trade Talk 00:00 GMT 19 October 2011

GVI Forex john 20:12 GMT October 19, 2011
USD Moving Averages
Reply   

10/19/2011

20:00

GMT

 

 

 

 

 

Latest

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

AUDUSD

NZDUSD

Last

1.3747

76.80

0.9028

1.5766

1.0208

1.0217

0.7907

High

1.3869

76.86

0.9038

1.5847

1.0216

1.0353

0.8010

Low

1.3723

76.63

0.8949

1.5697

1.0081

1.0202

0.7896

Change

-0.0041

0.04

0.0064

0.0026

0.0079

-0.0077

-0.0059

MVA

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

AUDUSD

NZDUSD

5 day

1.3790

76.89

0.8975

1.5766

1.0172

1.0247

0.7961

10 day

1.3690

76.84

0.9037

1.5688

1.0233

1.0091

0.7884

20 day

1.3570

76.75

0.9056

1.5602

1.0299

0.9907

0.7797

50 day

1.3905

76.81

0.8583

1.5922

1.0038

1.0238

0.8103

100 day

1.4114

78.14

0.8388

1.6060

0.9858

1.0451

0.8216

200 day

1.4082

80.14

0.8764

1.6135

0.9804

1.0383

0.7967

TREND

EURUSD

USDJPY

USDCHF

GBPUSD

USDCAD

AUDUSD

NZDUSD

BIAS

Up

Up

Down

Up

Down

Up

Up

 

Syd 20:10 GMT October 19, 2011
FT Reports Europe To Sacrifice Its Banks To Bailout Sovereigns - Under €100 Billion In Bank Recap
Reply   
It's 3pm: do you know where you last hour of trading bailout rumor is? Today, the Guardian passes the baton back to the FT, which however has released a report which when digested will be very negative for the zEURo.qq.

Goldman predicted a €1 trillion capital shortfall, while Credit Suisse said €400 billion. No matter: the EU will come out with a number from its lower colon, just to make the residual maximum sovereign debt "guarantee" notional appear that much bigger.

GVI Forex john 20:06 GMT October 19, 2011
Global-View.com Forex Heat Maps
Reply   

Be Sure to Refresh Forum Manually to Update Heat Map.


Fx Trading Discussion 19:51 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   

TRADING SIGNALS

GVI Forex john 19:47 GMT October 19, 2011
FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex Blog 19:37 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   
19:25 GMT (Global-View.com) October 19- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is closing in North America at .5232, +0.75% from its Tuesday close (-2.75% ytd).

Global-View D.O.G. Index October 19, 2011 U.S. Close

GVI Forex Blog 19:35 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   
As we witness 2008 in super slow motion I was not surprised to see the following excellent article in the FT today for which I apologize for sending directly – but it is very important and should be read…and anyone not paying for FT should…can’t be in market without it.

David Gilmore's Alert. EZ Banks May Face Shortage of Collateral - FT

GVI Forex john 19:35 GMT October 19, 2011
Global-View D.O.G. Iindex
Reply   
19:25 GMT (Global-View.com) October 19- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is closing in North America at .5232, +0.75% from its Tuesday close (-2.75% ytd).

As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7568, +0.35% (-2.74% ytd). The forex index is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.

Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is currently worth .1756, +0.82% (-13.48% ytd).

Against crude, it is at 0.5176, +2.47% (+6.14% ytd). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is set against levels from the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).

D.O.G. Homepage

GVI Forex Blog 19:28 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: Immediate AUD appears to be heading towards 1.0120 support today, with NZD similarly heading to 0.7860. AUD/NZD shows no signs of reversal yet, 1.3000 possible this week. RBA-speak from Battellino and Edey will be watched this morning.

Forex - Morning Report (Westpac)

GVI Forex john 19:27 GMT October 19, 2011
Eurozone leaders head for Frankfurt
Reply   
France and Germany at an impasse?

Eurozone leaders head for Frankfurt

nyc k 19:18 GMT October 19, 2011
EUR/USD

Sarkozy left the meeting with Merkel without commenting because his wife gave birth and he must be there asap. I hope that helps jmr.

Norfolk jmr 19:16 GMT October 19, 2011
EUR/USD
Reply   
Anyone think EUR/:USD may have a pull back toward 1.3800 prior heading lower? Trying to decide to cut losses here or wait for a little pull back.

Tokyo Rana 18:30 GMT October 19, 2011
Rabobank Favors Buying USD/JPY On Dips

this pair is my baby 10pips down.....

Tokyo Rana 18:13 GMT October 19, 2011
Rabobank Favors Buying USD/JPY On Dips

Sell USDJPY
Entry: 76.83 Target: 72/65 Stop: 77.83

going to short now some long term mid term...happy trade,

Tokyo Rana 18:10 GMT October 19, 2011
Rabobank Favors Buying USD/JPY On Dips

these banks never spot this pair will fall hard...

GVI Forex 18:09 GMT October 19, 2011
Alert - Beige Book
Reply   

-- Market-Moving News --

Beige Book:
Modest growth at a slow pace, wage pressures remain subdued
Stocks slip, fx folllows.


Beige Book

Boston eFX 18:03 GMT October 19, 2011
Rabobank Favors Buying USD/JPY On Dips
Reply   
(Dow Jones via eFXnews) Rabo's Jane Foley says a renewed bout of risk appetite would reduce the JPY's safe haven demand, while press reports overnight suggest the Japanese government and BOJ will form a team to address currency strength.

Foley says they will .....

Rabobank Favors Buying USD/JPY On Dips (full story)

Tokyo Rana 17:54 GMT October 19, 2011
gold

Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3830 Target: open Stop: 1.383now

short from 1.383 clossed 33% @1.3765 65pips now stop be now...yesterday long was 130pips plus...happy trade,

Hong Kong Qindex 17:52 GMT October 19, 2011
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3800

EUR/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase again when the market is trading below the daily cycle critical range is 1.3732 - 1.3750 - 1.3775.


===============================================


Hong Kong Qindex 02:59 GMT October 19, 2011 - My Profile
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3800 : Reply
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Analysis


The daily cycle critical range is 1.3732 - 1.3750 - 1.3775. The market has a tendency to trade within 1.3606 - 1.3913.


Qindex.com


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZEGYpXE5B4


EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Hong Kong Qindex 17:36 GMT October 19, 2011
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3866

Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : The followings are still valid :


Hong Kong Qindex 10:37 GMT October 13, 2011
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3866 : Reply
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : The current expected trading range is 1.3455 - 1.3822.


Qindex.com


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZEGYpXE5B4

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Hong Kong Qindex 10:22 GMT October 13, 2011
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3866 : Reply
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3646


The market is going to challenge the barrier at 1.3635 // 1.3646. The bias is on the downside when EUR/USD is rejected from the barrier at 1.3822 // 1.3833.


Qindex.com


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZEGYpXE5B4

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Hong Kong Qindex 02:34 GMT October 13, 2011
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3866 : Reply
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : The odds are in favor of maintaining a short position when the market is under the barrier at 1.3744 // 1.3767.


Qindex.com

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZEGYpXE5B4
EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Hong Kong Qindex 02:27 GMT October 13, 2011
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3866 : Reply
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : The current expected trading range is still 1.3744 - 1.3866. A resistant barrier has been established at 1.3791 // 1.3822.


Qindex.com


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZEGYpXE5B4

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Hong Kong Qindex 11:55 GMT October 12, 2011
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3866 : Reply
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Speculative selling pressure will increase again when the market resumes its downward trending movement and penetrates through the barrier at 1.3674 // 1.3700.


Qindex.com


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZEGYpXE5B4

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Saar KaL 17:30 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level



Mailman 15:54:32 GMT
fine..intraday maybe
as you can see from chart for usdcad
it is not impossible to hit the red again...could be 1.03
maybe at least knowing the bigger picture and maybe make use of it in intraday
anyways...we all aim the same thing ($$)..heheh
GL

nyc ws 17:10 GMT October 19, 2011
hard hats required
Reply   
US afternoons are a time to put on your news hard hat to avoid a surprise.

PAR 17:01 GMT October 19, 2011
EFSF Will Be Expanded To Up To EUR1.45 Trillion -Report

Sarkozy wants to use EFSF to recapitalise French banks and to finance his reelection campaign for which neither of both he can find private money.

Best is to keep EFSF as small as possible and to avoid Europe becomming a Soviet style transfer union with the ECB and the Commision as politbureau.

Comrade Sarkozy and next year comrade Hollande should try to find some private money . Obama is finding plenty of money for his reelection campaign.

GVI Forex john 16:56 GMT October 19, 2011
Global-View.com Forex Heat Maps

Heat Maps show USD and EUR pairs have turned mixed. Some tell us this suggests a range trading strategy?

Boston eFX 16:49 GMT October 19, 2011
Slipping The Mantle Off The Dollar
Reply   
(Dow Jones ia eFXnews) What may be a safe haven today, may not be a safe haven tomorrow, as the dollar is finding out.

For much of this summer, the U.S. currency has basked in investor support driven by the continuing crisis in the euro zone as well rising fears that the global economy is headed for a double dip recession.

The dollar......

Slipping The Mantle Off The Dollar (full story)

Lahore FM 16:40 GMT October 19, 2011
" Trade Ideas "

Sell GBPUSD
Entry: 1.5799 Target: 1.5620 Stop:

sold.

GVI Forex john 16:37 GMT October 19, 2011
Global-View.com Forex Heat Maps
Reply   

Be Sure to Refresh Forum Manually to Update Heat Map.


Richland QC Mailman 16:36 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

Haha. I like the "risk off/risk on" mentality just as simple as switching on and off a florescent lamp. Huge market players are in effect saying: "Why bother with fundamentals when we can gain irrationally - independent of logic?" Meanwhile, the party continues...

Minneapolis DRS2 16:24 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

Mailman I agree...there's a lot of "kick the can" thinking going around -- not just the banks and other financial institutions, but businesses and the general population as well. Here in the US, the equity markets have become addicted to the "risk on/risk off" mentality, to the point where common sense is lost. Fundamentals be damned...all anyone seems to follow these days are the musings around the Fed and ECB.

Richland QC Mailman 16:06 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

Hi DRS2. Well that is a very tough question. But to simplify matters, tolerance of the euro's antics will continue for as long as gigantic financial institutions are profiting from its volatility.

Richland QC Mailman 16:01 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

Just thinking euro will drop like a hot potato, accelerating down again to 1.3680. It may be faster than it did when it was struggling to recover.

Minneapolis DRS2 16:01 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

Oh...and let's not forget those who are selling USD, for whatever reason. Can't forget that doncha know...

Minneapolis DRS2 15:59 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

The presumption wouldn't necessarily have to be "all EU problems vanishing overnight". The EUR/USD pair has been kept up, IMHO, by sovereign buying, stop hunts, and investors on the "hope and change" kick.

Sovereign buyers will buy because they have to. Stop hunts will continue until the market is long EUR/USD. Investors will continue to buy Euro stuff until they stop believing the BS.

It's that last point I wonder about...how much longer will the market tolerate the Euro BS?

hk ab 15:56 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
can we see 1600 handle today?.......

Tokyo Rana 15:56 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

AB if this problem is this much small and can solve in overnight then it wud not take that much long years....

Tokyo Rana 15:56 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

AB if this problem is this much small and can solve in overnight then it wud not take that much long years....

Richland QC Mailman 15:54 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

HI Kal. We are at the opposite side of fence again trading pal in terms of the loonie and euro. USD/cad imvho is on its way to 1.0150 then if market forces will be too strong back to 1.0200 level.

Euro has just failed to breach the weekly resistance barrier and is bound to fall after a semi Head and Shoulder on the 4hr chart.

Still happy trade to you and the rest of the crew who believe in the euro or probably its demise?

hk ab 15:45 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

you must presume all EU problems vanished overnight on the coming Sunday.

Saar KaL 15:42 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

IMO EURUSD 3 weeks bullish till 1.44 to 1.45
then south till 1.30
over the next 3 month
this level for usdjpy not a sell
76.3

Generally range to 78 and flat for 3 month
not so with usdcad and usdchf..both sells
gl

Saar KaL 15:32 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level



audnzd Long here
exit 1.30 then relong at 1.28ish

GVI Forex Blog 15:32 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   
The euro rallied overnight, with EUR/USD breaking above 1.3850, despite yesterday's warning on France's AAA rating and Moody's downgrade of Spain's sovereign ratings. The euro backed off its best levels as after news made the rounds that French President Sarkozy would visit Berlin today to work out an impasse over how the EFSF and ECB will interact

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update

hkg kumar 15:25 GMT October 19, 2011
Sell GBP/USD


leave t/p limit at 1.54 for few days

Boston eFX 15:22 GMT October 19, 2011
EFSF Will Be Expanded To Up To EUR1.45 Trillion -Report
Reply   
The bailout fund for the euro-zone will have firepower of up to EUR1.45 trillion, Dutch newspaper Het Financieele Dagblad reports Wednesday, citing unnamed sources.

The newspaper writes there is still no final agreement and that European officials are still negotiating on the exact shape of the European Financial Stability Facility.

The daily reports that the EFSF will be leveraged five times and that it will guarantee ......

EFSF Will Be Expanded To Up To EUR1.45 Trillion -Report

hk ab 15:21 GMT October 19, 2011
Sell GBP/USD

If you don't mind, please pm me, Kevin. :D

I am the opposite, I don't like grassgrowing feeling.

HK Kevin 15:17 GMT October 19, 2011
Sell GBP/USD

hk ab 15:08 GMT, I did trade gold. However, I cannot tolerate a highly fluctuated market nowsaday with a daily range of $50 or even $100. I have a day time job and don't have the luxury to sit in front of the screen and look at the 15-min chart for trading opportunities.

Saar KaL 15:16 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

short usdchf here

Fx Trading Discussion 15:15 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   

USDJPY Trading Plan

Saar KaL 15:15 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

EURUSD 1.3730 adding much more

hk ab 15:08 GMT October 19, 2011
Sell GBP/USD

with your good technical, why dont' you trade gold?

HK Kevin 15:03 GMT October 19, 2011
Sell GBP/USD
Reply   
GBP/USD is on its way back to 1.5730 tomorrow. Sold at 1.5832 earlier with stop above 1.5852.

Richland QC Mailman 14:58 GMT October 19, 2011
Time to BUY USD again
Reply   
Hi folks. Buying some USDs since 20 minutes ago vs. cad, gbp and euro near current levels.

Saar KaL 14:56 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level



ndx is just buy

Saar KaL 14:53 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level



cadjpy
nzdjpy and audjpy all Buys IMO

Saar KaL 14:51 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

GD
it's a zero sum game...
The reverse could be true...
gl

Vienna GD 14:45 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

"extrapolation of historical data" ... that explains nothing and all ... based on what? There is a missling link ...

But anyway thanks for the explanation KaL.

Except maybe for a spike north anytime - I think your system will be wrong. Hanging more towards dils 25, virgoans 1.33, bc's DX 85, cyclists 83 ... etc.

Take care my friend ... all my indicators are pointing south over coming 5-6 weeks. Just a few days anymore left with questions and a window to go higher. Thereafer you muight get burned very badly.

GVI Forex john 14:31 GMT October 19, 2011
ALERT- U.S. Weekly IEA Energy Data
Reply   

-- ALERT --
U.S. Weekly Energy Inventories (mln)
Crude Oil: -4.73 vs. +1.900 exp. vs. +1.300 prev.
Gasoline: -3.3 vs. -0.900 exp. vs. +1.200 prev.
Distillates: -4.27 vs. -1.400 exp. vs -1.400 prev.
Cap/Util: 83.1% vs. 84.0% exp. vs. 84.2% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Mumbai AS 14:29 GMT October 19, 2011
gold

Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

Hi whats C9?

Saar KaL 14:28 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level



GD
all Based detailed extrapolation of historical data
this is eurusd P.I at 95%
means 5% of the time will be above the green and below the red
It is a Buy for nov

Vienna GD 14:26 GMT October 19, 2011
market hint

Dil .... good to have your input here ... very much appreciated! Nice weekend to you too!

Fx Trading Discussion 14:23 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   

EURUSD Trading Plan

Tokyo Rana 14:21 GMT October 19, 2011
gold

ihave very small position so no problem....

hk ab 14:18 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
rana, why didn't you exit yesterday? it was so tempted though.

GVI Forex john 14:14 GMT October 19, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets

Sarkozy on his way to Berlin today. At least they have something to discuss. To talk with Merkel and Trichet.

nyc s 14:05 GMT October 19, 2011
eur, gold

Dil, en fuego

London SFH 13:54 GMT October 19, 2011
eur, gold

turned short E$ into a long at 1.3790....

hk ab 13:53 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
c9 exit is a good indicator.......

target 1625 tonight.

hk ab 13:46 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
s/l move to 1658, let it dip.

GVI Forex Jay 13:38 GMT October 19, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets

I don't know what others feel but I find John's Market Moving News updates are really useful. I am not prone to tooting our own horn but in this case acknowledgement is worth noting. Feel free to give feedback.

Gen dk 13:32 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex john 13:28 GMT October 19, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets

-- Market-Moving News --

Report Sarkozy Ready to travel to Berlin this afternoon presumably to break a negotiations log-jam.
EURUSD falls.

hk ab 13:22 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
add if 1666 seen. All stops 1670.5

hk ab 13:19 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
short gold 1660.

Israel Dil 13:11 GMT October 19, 2011
market hint

Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: sub 1.25 Stop:


before today's European session ends, I will remain without any EURO longs versus the USD.

have a good weekend all and I wonder what will be the EUR/USD rate the coming Monday at 09:00 GMT :-)


gl/gt

GVI Forex john 13:09 GMT October 19, 2011
eurchf

GB- Yes that was before the SNB meeting much earlier today. SNB did not announce anything on the peg but did complain about the strong CHF.

Open 13:09 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   

Thailand: Urgent appeal for help...

hk ab 13:09 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
for those who follows c9, they exit now.

London SFH 13:06 GMT October 19, 2011
Reuters poll
Reply   
Well not necessarily from this weekend, but the ‘grand plan’ even though it more like a grand collection of separate plans…

13:40 19Oct11 RTRS-REUTERS POLL-EU LEADERS WILL AGREE 50 PERCENT HAIRCUT FOR PRIVATE BONDHOLDINGS OF GREEK DEBT (RANGE 25-65 PCT)
13:40 19Oct11 RTRS-REUTERS POLL-28 OUT OF 44 ECONOMISTS SAY EFSF FIRST LOSS INSURANCE EFFECTIVE WAY TO STABILISE ITALY BOND MARKET
13:40 19Oct11 RTRS-REUTERS POLL-JULY 109 BLN EURO GREEK BAILOUT LIKELY TO FALL SHORT BY 50 BILLION EUROS - ECONOMISTS
13:40 19Oct11 RTRS-REUTERS POLL-PROPOSED 9 PERCENT CORE TIER 1 CAPITAL RATIO FOR EUROPEAN BANKS IS ENOUGH - 36 OF 39 ECONOMISTS
13:40 19Oct11 RTRS-POLL-EU to ask Greek bondholders to take 50 percent losses
* EU to ask Greek bondholders to take 50 percent hit
* EFSF insurance effective way to stabilise Italian bond market
* Greek July bailout likely to fall short by 50 bln euros
* Economists say proposed 9 percent Tier 1 capital ratio enough

GVI Forex Blog 12:58 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   
Dollar-Swiss is continuing to get Support near 0.8950 but is not gaining strength for a strong rise past 0.9000-25 Resistance region.

FX Thoughts for the day : 19-oct-2011 - 1256 GMT

London GB 12:54 GMT October 19, 2011
eurchf
Reply   
1.25 floor rumours?

Israel Dil 12:46 GMT October 19, 2011
market hint

euro's current low is to stay in tact until tomorrow.

GVI Forex john 12:43 GMT October 19, 2011
ALERT- U.S. Data



Surge in starts mitigated by soft permits...

GVI Forex john 12:40 GMT October 19, 2011
ALERT- U.S. Data



Not a major issue...

Boston eFX 12:39 GMT October 19, 2011
Dec Brent Has Downside Risk Back To $100/Bbl
Reply   


(Dow Jones via eFXnews) Brent crude prices are on the way back down to the $100 per barrel mark, as the threat of a global economic slowdown worsens.

This is due to China reporting a weaker gross domestic product growth figure for the third quarter of 2011 than was expected, and expectations of greater pressure on the coming two quarters.

Brent futures have been....

Dec Brent Has Downside Risk Back To $100/Bbl

kl fs 12:32 GMT October 19, 2011
market hint

Dil, you mean buy euro?

GVI Forex john 12:31 GMT October 19, 2011
ALERT- U.S. Data
Reply   

-- ALERT --
U.S. CPI September 2011
Headline: +0.3%% vs. +0.30% exp. vs. +0.40% prev.
Core: +0.1 % vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.

U.S. Housing Starts Permits September 2011 (000)
Starts: 658 vs. 594 exp. vs. 572 prev.
Permits: 594 vs. 610 exp. vs. 620 prev.

Canada: Leading Indicators September 2011
-0.1% vs. +0.10% exp. vs. +0.00% prev.




TTN: Live News Special Offer

Israel Dil 12:19 GMT October 19, 2011
market hint

today it's going to be nerve testing day, lots of noise but no the REVERSAL and DIVE day for euro,

gl/gt

Vienna GD 12:06 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

usa index ... what is your crystal balls analysis based upon?

As that system obviously is able to predict days and weeks and months in advance - i think it is quite important to know on what that softwares input is based upon.

Otherwise, not in the know how it works, it would be rather suspicious for me ... and why not even a GS "directed" robot ... 45% of time in your favor - and 55 % in favor of GS - or worse.

Just wondering, hence asking ...

Boston eFX 11:55 GMT October 19, 2011
German Finance Agency: Auction Reflects "Elevated Nervousness" On Mkt
Reply   
(Dow Jones via eFXnews) The German federal government Wednesday sold EUR4.075 billion of 10-year bonds, well below the amount on offer.

The cover ratio was the lowest at a 10-year bund auction this year.

A German finance agency spokesman said the auction results....

German Finance Agency: Auction Reflects "Elevated Nervousness" On Mkt (full story)

Tokyo Rana 11:54 GMT October 19, 2011
Euro Dissolution

dji down 66$ again in hour...

London HC 11:45 GMT October 19, 2011
EUR/$

It is difficult to suggest large wagers ahead of the weekend summit as there is a big risk of disappointment but it only takes one well placed headline to turn it the other way.

LDN dt 11:28 GMT October 19, 2011
EUR/$
Reply   
Any thots about how Eur/$ will trade the rest of the week? Or do we continue with headline roulette.

Saar KaL 11:20 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level



^ixf Index USA is most bulish

Gen dk 11:20 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Boston eFX 11:19 GMT October 19, 2011
Wednesday Is EUR/CHF Speculation Time -UBS
Reply   
(Dow Jones via eFXnews) Wednesday is EUR/CHF speculation time says UBS currency strategist Chris Walker noting that a weekly government meeting always gets the market excited Wednesdays and starts speculation of an impending announcement that the ....

Wednesday Is EUR/CHF Speculation Time -UBS

Tokyo Rana 11:18 GMT October 19, 2011
Euro Dissolution

dji at strong res be careful longs....look at 8h...

London Misha 11:13 GMT October 19, 2011
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - Possible Bullish Doji Interim Bottom on Daily Chart.
USDJPY - Possible Tweezer Bottom on Daily Chart.
GBPUSD - 2nd Black Crow after Bearish Engulfing/Pipe Top on Daily Chart.
USDCHF - Possible Doji Top on Daily Chart.
EURGBP - Market tests & rejects Long MA support.
EURJPY - Possible Bullish Doji Interim Bottom on Daily Chart.
USDCAD - Bearish Harami on Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - Bullish Harami on Daily Chart. Nearing Long MA resistance.

Saar KaL 11:12 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

they all will go to their averages
Greece, Gross gaga...does not matter


EURUSD 1.404 Buy
USDJPY 77.5 Buy
GBPUSD 1.5940 Buy
USDCHF .8755 Sell

AUDUSD 1.0650 Buy
USDCAD 1.0000 Sell
NZDUSD .8240 Buy

EURJPY 109 Buy
GBPJPY 123.6 Buy
GBPNZD 1.9350 Sell
GBPAUD 1.4950 Sell

NDX 2434 Buy

AUDJPY 82.5 Buy
CADJPY 77.5 Buy
NZDJPY 64 Buy

AUDNZD 129.4 Buy

AUDCHF .9356 Buy

London SFH 11:05 GMT October 19, 2011
eur, gold

Turned long e$ into a short at 1.3845 fwiw


London SFH 11:00 GMT October 19, 2011
EURUSD

ib

making money on the transaction but also taking huge risk that the principal will eventually be lost

GVI Forex 10:53 GMT October 19, 2011
Forex News
Reply   
The euro rose broadly on Wednesday, as sovereign demand to sell the dollar for other
currencies and ongoing short covering boosted the single currency even as European officials denied an agreement


FOREX NEWS - Euro rallies on official demand, shrugs off EFSF denial

GVI Forex Blog 10:53 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   
The euro rose broadly on Wednesday, as sovereign demand to sell the dollar for other currencies and ongoing short covering boosted the single currency even as European officials denied an agreement

FOREX NEWS - Euro rallies on official demand, shrugs off EFSF denial

Boston eFX 10:47 GMT October 19, 2011
Hedge Funds Still See USD Gains - SocGen
Reply   
(Dow Jones via eFXnews) Hedge funds still see USD gains, Societe Generale says, noting speculative funds have been strong buyers of USD against the EUR and GBP since August.

Societe Generale says the latest data on positioning suggests ......

Hedge Funds Still See USD Gains - SocGen

Saar KaL 10:43 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

Did some 500 Stocks
These are Buys IMO for Nov

US STocks Buys

GVI Forex Jay 10:43 GMT October 19, 2011
Forex Weathermap - EURUSD
Reply   
10:40 GMT (Global-View.com) Oct 19 - EURUSD performing as suggested, printing 1.38 for the 6th day in a row, which was the risk indicated overnight while above 1.3725. This is a pattern to watch as the longer it goes on the greater the risk of a directional move once broken.

In the meantime, it will be another day of headline watching after an overload of headlines yesterday created a series of whipsaws. It is hard to suggest followthrough in this environment ahead of the EU weekend summit althoiugh price action suggests an itching for a "risk on" market.

Daily Forex WeatherMap - by Jay Meisler
Oct 19, 2011 EURUSD (Current rate: 1.3840)
Bias: 1.38 sets the bias but expect limited follow through while within 1.37-1.39. Upside resistance clear at 1.3914 (Monday high and 50 day mva) ahead of key 1.3936 level. Nothing special on the downside until Tuesday's 1.3651 low. Expected range: 1.3780/50/25 1.3880/1.3914/1.3936

www.global-view.com

Forex Forum

GVI Forex john 10:24 GMT October 19, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets

DAX +76

Futures
DJIA +11
S&P +1

GVI Forex Blog 10:20 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   
The European morning saw a pickup in risk appetite amid euro-area rescue hopes aided by various press reports on the leveraging of the EFSF facility.

TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: BOE vote was unanimous to raise its QE program by £75B; German 10-year Bund auction was technically uncovered

hk ab 10:16 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
c9 said they are only eying 1669.......

PAR 09:54 GMT October 19, 2011
Taxpayers helping Buffett

Professor Black provided a “bottom line” summary in a separate email:

1.The bank holding company (BAC) is moving troubled assets held by an entity not insured by the public (Merrill Lynch) to the Bank of America, which is insured by the public

2. The banking rules are designed to prevent that because they are designed to protect the FDIC insurance fund (which the Treasury guarantees)

3. Any marginally competent regulator would say “No, censored NO!”

4. The Fed, reportedly, is saying “Sure, no worries” by allowing the sale of an affiliate’s troubled assets to B of A

5. This is a really good “natural experiment” that allows us to test whether the Fed is protects the public or the uninsured and systemically dangerous institutions (the bank holding companies (BHCs))

6. We are all shocked, shocked [sarcasm] that Bernanke responded to the experiment by choosing to protect the BHC at the expense of the public.

PAR 09:48 GMT October 19, 2011
Taxpayers helping Buffett
Reply   
Federal Reserve and Bank of America Initiate a Coup to Dump Billions of Dollars of Losses on the American Taxpayer
Submitted by George Washington

The short form via Bloomberg:



Bank of America Corp. (BAC), hit by a credit downgrade last month, has moved derivatives from its Merrill Lynch unit to a subsidiary flush with insured deposits, according to people with direct knowledge of the situation…



Bank of America’s holding company — the parent of both the retail bank and the Merrill Lynch securities unit — held almost $75 trillion of derivatives at the end of June, according to data compiled by the OCC. About $53 trillion, or 71 percent, were within Bank of America NA, according to the data, which represent the notional values of the trades.



That compares with JPMorgan’s deposit-taking entity, JPMorgan Chase Bank NA, which contained 99 percent of the New York-based firm’s $79 trillion of notional derivatives, the OCC data show.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/federal-reserve-and-bank-america-initiate-coup-dump-hundreds-billions-dollars-losses-ame

Paris ib 09:45 GMT October 19, 2011
Euro Dissolution

Do I get a cheque in the mail now?

GVI Forex john 09:44 GMT October 19, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets
Reply   

  • Key Items-  US- CPI, Housing Starts, Beige Book.

  • Volatility related to a Guardian article about developments within Europe related to the the weekend EU/EZ meetings generated considerable price swings late Tuesday in NYC. An unnamed source later denied that the article was accurate.

  • We would not be surprised to see repeats of the Tuesday fiasco before the close of business this week on Friday evening. The stakes for this meeting have become extremely high and the market will not be pleased if key players cannot come up with something substantial before markets resume trading in the Far east early on Monday.

  • In Greece, a 48 hour strike is underway protesting austerity moves. Some government workers are engaging in a "white out", whereby they show up at work but do nothing. Major pay cuts are not going down well within Greece.   

  • There is also growing worry that the cherished French AAA debt rating is going away. If it is lost, will Germany follow? 

  • BOE policy minutes released today were dovish and initially weighed on the GBP.

Israel Dil 09:43 GMT October 19, 2011
Euro Dissolution

ib

don't waste energy to justify your view, make sure you have a plan ready in case your view will not come out as the market's direction.

gl/gt

GVI Forex john 09:42 GMT October 19, 2011
Global-View.com Forex Heat Maps

re Heat Map, there was market chatter earlier today that the SNB might raise the EURCHF peg to 1.2500. We know the SNB would like to see the EUR stronger vs. the CHF, but observe their current strategy is working well. We see no reason to change it. "If it ain't broke, don't fix it!"

Sydney ACC 09:41 GMT October 19, 2011
Euro Dissolution

One minute - pretty quick response!

Israel Dil 09:40 GMT October 19, 2011
EURUSD

the most important for us the traders are the trading opportunities rising from any markets or political stand/issues.

it is matter of hours or very few days to realize to where the next move going to lead us. so it's about are we going higher from the already high stand or we are about to enter period of few months that will reflect the not so rosy fundamentals for the global economies and capital markets.

my two cents suggesting we are about to enter sell-off markets soon, very soon in terms of those who are not day traders.


gl/gt


Paris ib 09:36 GMT October 19, 2011
Euro Dissolution

The key word here is "if".

More scuttlebutt.

Sydney ACC 09:35 GMT October 19, 2011
Euro Dissolution
Reply   
An intriguing attempt to solve the eurozone crisis courtesy of Next chief executive and Tory peer Lord Wolfson.

He is offering a £250,000 prize to the person who can come up with way to restructure the euro and allow a failing member state to leave the currency in an orderly way.

Lord Wolfson writes in this morning's Times:

If it is possible that the monetary union cannot survive in its present form, it is vital to explore a way out that protects savings, jobs and financial stability.

With France and Germany reportedly considering expanding the scope of the bail-out fund to cover €2 trillion of liabilities, £250,000 for the winner could be a bargain, depending what answer they come up with

GVI Forex john 09:33 GMT October 19, 2011
Global-View.com Forex Heat Maps
Reply   

Be Sure to Refresh Forum Manually to Update Heat Map.


hk ab 09:31 GMT October 19, 2011
mkt
Reply   
seems it is positiioning a big up today.

GVI Forex john 09:20 GMT October 19, 2011
Global-View D.O.G. Iindex
Reply   
09:25 GMT (Global-View.com) October 19- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is opening in North America at .5187, -0.11% from its Tuesday close (-3.58% ytd).

As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7528, -0.18% (-3.26% ytd). The forex index is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.

Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is currently worth .1745, +0.22% (-13.99% ytd).

Against crude, it is at 0.5049, -0.06% (+3.52% ytd). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is set against levels from the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).

D.O.G. Homepage

Syd 09:15 GMT October 19, 2011
China Growth Worries Bearish For Oil -MF Global
Reply   
Tuesday data showing China's economy grew at 9.1% in the third quarter from the previous year, its slowest rate of gain in two years, may be bearish for crude oil in the longer term, says Edward Meir, a senior analyst at MF Global. "That is a legitimate worry and one that could keep the commodity complex on its back foot for much of 2012." In the short-term, investors will look to inventory data by the U.S. Department of Energy, released later Wednesday.

hk ab 09:15 GMT October 19, 2011
gold

KL, did you note the relative weakness of gold Vs eur?

is there any implication?

btw, asian bought this morning.

KL KL 09:12 GMT October 19, 2011
gold

ab

My Armada is in battle mode....lowering the upper and lower zone of attack from wht I quoted by $15-25 now.........looks like 1620 may be tested again....but this Euro 2 trillion paper money is worrying me......can long and short ...after all I don't want to use real bread butter money with Printed paper money of Euro Zone....... so now need to be vigilant. Somehow I do reverse ninja and prefer to long in my zone of comfort...... But yankees may have other ideas... gl gt

Tokyo Rana 09:11 GMT October 19, 2011
gold

wat ever aud just go up how silly market price action nowdays....

Paris ib 09:02 GMT October 19, 2011
EURUSD

SFH "One thing for sure, any plan that involves massive German/French taxpayer participation..."

What exactly do you mean by 'taxpayer participation'? I'm afraid you have fallen foul of the scaremongers again. When the IMF lends to a country, when the World Bank does, when the European Union does... on all these occasions that entity is borrowing the money (at low rates) from 'the market' first and then on-lending that money (at higher rates) to Greece, Mexico or whoever. In effect these entities are making money as part of that process. And in addition imposing economic policies, reforms etc. (always of the neo-liberal ilk) on the country which is being targeted.

The talk of the 'taxpayer participation' is just tabloid scuttlebut and really has no place in a discussion between people who should know how markets actually work. Could you please avoid all this emotional game playing?

hk ab 09:01 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
bulls fail....

hk ab 08:57 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
can gold bears stop them at 1650?

hk ab 08:56 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
KL, are all your tools working now?

I took a break last night.

hk ab 08:51 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
10 mins left.

hk ab 08:47 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
but bearishness seems persist badly.

poor c9.

Syd 08:46 GMT October 19, 2011
Brazil Seen Cutting Rates 50 Bps - SocGen
Reply   
Brazil seen cutting rates by 50 bps, Societe Generale says, to 11.5% later Wednesday. "This move may not be fully justified on pure domestic grounds, but it seems that the Brazil authorities are keen to send a strong message," Societe Generale says. Adds, the rationale is still essentially an adverse global backdrop and risks remain skewed to the downside ahead of the important EU council meeting. Notes the BRL remains vulnerable to swings in investor sentiment. "

hk ab 08:46 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
if gold closes around 1650 this hr, c9 maybe lucky to have a relief reversal.

hk ab 08:43 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
gold so weak after last big dip.

GVI Forex john 08:41 GMT October 19, 2011
ALERT- BOE Minutes

- GBP weaker on dovish BOE minutes.

GVI Forex john 08:38 GMT October 19, 2011
ALERT- EZ Current Account
Reply   

--EARLIER --
EZ Current Account (EUR bn) August 2011
C/A: -5.0 vs. -7.5 exp. vs. -12.9 prev.
Inv Flows: +35.7 vs. n/a exp. vs. -16.0 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

hk ab 08:34 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
c9 add at 1647

Paris Eurusd Trader 08:31 GMT October 19, 2011
EURUSD - Why do we all run like chickens?
Reply   
www.coachingfxtraders.com

19.10.2011

Why do we all run like chickens?

Last week EURUSD was up 540 pips from its low to the high and in the weekend we had a G20 meeting that set out some strong demands on eurozone leaders to get their act together. And if they did – the rest of the world would support them. As such there might not be that much EU would have to come up with themselves to get the financing they need for banks. The plan only needed the element of strength and decisiveness and others would provide capital and take the risk,

The week got off to a positive start before German politicians started showing their reservations and doubt about moving too fast.

We then sold off the EURUSD to almost 50% of its gains from last week – in a “risk off” mood which was 180 degrees to what we had last week. The sell-off – while not that speedy – still had almost an element of panic as seen when looking at someone chased by a ghost.

As seen always – at the bottom of it – stops and stops – which often is the sign that the move comes to an end.

And while picking up again with slow speed we only needed an article in the Guardian to take off again – in full speed. The article illustrated an interesting angling of the discussions between the German and the French. Instead off popping up more capital to the EFSF, maybe a guarantee would be sufficient – and one in an amount which showed strength. 2 trillion Euros was mentioned – and if the end result of these discussions will end up in this area – then there will be a lot of risk capital available for European bonds and bank’s equities – from everywhere around the world. Go for it – is my message.

EURUSD liked it. A spike of 80 pips in a few minutes – again supported by stops and stops – took the pair to 1.3817. Quite a nice move from something which was just some unconfirmed discussions.

On reflections – and in realisation that this was only from an English paper – we sold the EURUSD off again – down to 1.3735 by the time I got to bed.
This morning it is up again to 1.3800.

In hindsight one is tempted to ask; Why do we all run like chickens?

Today trading is easier as we have set some levels from the three first days through a low and a high of the week. Which one is the target for today – or are they both?

Why might some clues from today’s calendar where the indicators I like to focus on are:

• EUR German Producer Prices (MoM) 06:00 0.20% -0.30%
• CHF Exports (MoM) 06:00 -7.00%
• CHF Imports (MoM) 06:00 0.90%
• EUR German Producer Prices (YoY) 06:00 5.50% 5.50%
• CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) 06:00 0.76B
• GBP Retail Sales (MoM) 08:30 0.20% -0.10%
• GBP Retail Sales (YoY) 08:30 0.60% -0.10%
• GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) 08:30 0.00% -0.20%
• GBP Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) 08:30 0.60% 0.00%
• CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) 09:00 -75.70
• EUR German Economic Ministry New GDP Forecasts 10:00
• USD Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 400K 404K
• USD Continuing Claims 12:30 3680K 3670K
• EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence 14:00 -20.10 -19.10
• USD Existing Home Sales 14:00 4.90M 5.03M
• USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) 14:00 -2.60% 7.70%
• USD Leading Indicators 14:00 0.20% 0.30%
• USD Philadelphia Fed. 14:00 -9.50 -17.50

Quite a few – with main focus on German Producer Prices, Germany Economic Ministry’s forecast for GDP, EU Consumer Confidence, US Leading Indicators and Philadelphia Fed’s Index.

While all being interesting – attention should be paid to the ongoing talks between Germany and France. For 2 days the market thought that those were deemed to fail.

For the rest of the week – and if The Guardian is right in their assumptions of what is going on – we have not seen the high of the week (currently @ 1.3913) – and we might be heading for 1.4050/1.4150.

For those not comfortable with the moods setting the moves these days – make small entries or stay sidelined. This is not a market for high leverage.

Good luck to you and have a nice day.

GVI Forex john 08:30 GMT October 19, 2011
ALERT- BOE Minutes
Reply   

-- ALERT --
Latest BOE Policy Vote and Minutes
RATES:
Tighten = 0 Unchanged =9 Ease = 0
QE:
Tighten =0 Unchanged = 0 Ease = 9


TTN: Live News Special Offer

hk ab 08:15 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
Can we see defeat of c9 today? time will tell.

hk ab 08:10 GMT October 19, 2011
eur
Reply   
100% sure that a big lie from EU is waiting for us.

hk ab 08:09 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
I exited the long, leaving the c9 on the train.

hk ab 08:06 GMT October 19, 2011
mkt
Reply   
Kal, any signal today?

hk ab 08:04 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
The weak longs are sellling hard at 1652......

gl to c9.

hk ab 07:53 GMT October 19, 2011
RBS....

The one about Bank of America.... Thanks.

hk ab 07:47 GMT October 19, 2011
eur
Reply   
let's see how far can the european lies push the eur up.....
1.41?

hk ab 07:45 GMT October 19, 2011
RBS....
Reply   
Can someone elaborate the news 6 hrs ago about backstoping? THanks.

hk ab 07:42 GMT October 19, 2011
gold

c9 are rich housewives who stationed in bucket shop everyday to trade their fx and gold positions.

But mind you, some c9 lost their shirts completely from time to time and reported on newspaper.....

But lately, their records of position is horrible.

Toronto YV 07:38 GMT October 19, 2011
gold

ab , where You get c9 positions info ?

PAR 07:33 GMT October 19, 2011
Nationalisation
Reply   
If you nationalise loss making banks , why not at the same time nationalise profit making utility companies.

This would be a better idea -privatise losses, nationalise profits .

Sarkozy is seeing EFSF as a new kind of common agricultural policy , i.e. everybody pays and France benefits.
Not such a good idea imho .

hk ab 07:28 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
c9 effect!!

I will from now on, enter the position $4 below or above their position of buy/sell.... well done hk aunties.

Hong Kong Qindex 07:18 GMT October 19, 2011
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3800

Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Trading Reference


... 1.3647 - 1.3717 - 1.3725 // 1.3794 - 1.3801 - 1.3836 - 1.3838 - 1.3850 - 1.3857 // 1.3904 - 1.3974 ...


Qindex.com


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZEGYpXE5B4

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

hk ab 07:17 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
could it suffers from price of iron?

London SFH 07:12 GMT October 19, 2011
eur, gold

I expect today will be another volatile day in mostasset classes-with good moves up and down-taken my first postion of the day longEuro$ 1.3800

hk ab 07:09 GMT October 19, 2011
eur, gold
Reply   
with eur stronger than gold, seems to me that there must be some more lies coming out soon which will shoot the eur up.

hk ab 07:06 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
finally C9 has a wrong direction.

I buy small at 1649.

London SFH 07:04 GMT October 19, 2011
EURUSD

Is it sheer foolishness or not to think that Germany/France have some "shock and awe" scheme up their sleeve. How is it to be funded and what about the other 15 EU countries approval and participation....sounds like a "CROCK" if you get my drift. One thing for sure, any plan that involves massive German/French taxpayer participation means Merkozy will be out the door in the next German/French elections. Whatever, manic stocks did their usual thing off the Guardian story (-100 to +250 to settle +180) while the more reliable FI arena took the story in stride as best they could.

Tartu kuues 06:49 GMT October 19, 2011
EURUSD
Reply   
REUTERS- EU officials say no deal reached yet to scale up euro zone bailout fund

hk ab 06:49 GMT October 19, 2011
gold

c9 bought now 1654

hk ab 06:42 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
with Asian buying in this morning, I am more intended to buy dips and exit at the 1680-90 region....

Chances come again.

Gdansk 06:30 GMT October 19, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

Still in 1.38/1.37 range

Syd 06:10 GMT October 19, 2011
Greece Paralyzed By Two-Day Strike Ahead Of Vote
Reply   
Greece was paralyzed by a massive two-day strike Wednesday as groups ranging from civil servants to pharmacists and bakers walked off the job ahead of a key parliamentary vote on new austerity measures Thursday.

.

GVI Forex Blog 05:55 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   
- (CH) CHINA SEPT ACTUAL FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) Y/Y: 7.9% V 11.1% PRIOR - (JP) JAPAN AUG ALL INDUSTRY ACTIVITY INDEX M/M: -0.5% V -0.4%E - (CH) CHINA AUG CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOM

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Asian markets mixed as Moody's 2 notch cut to Spain puts fresh pressure on the markets; Disappointing Apple results weigh on tech

Tokyo Rana 05:51 GMT October 19, 2011
e/j

Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3830 Target: open Stop: 1.388

today sold eu....still hold gold short stop again 1690 will add from 1670...happy trade,

Moscow pichota 05:02 GMT October 19, 2011
e/j

Your target will hit during next week but I am not o sure that your stop will survive this week.

hk ab 04:57 GMT October 19, 2011
e/j
Reply   

Entry: 106 Target: 100 Stop: 107.2

This e/j is waiting to be smacked.

Kal, I loaded too much e/j at 106 and still I can't SAR now.

Syd 04:35 GMT October 19, 2011
China Downside Risks To Rise Over Next 6 Months-Daiwa
Reply   
China's latest GDP slowdown remains orderly, with a sharper slowing of fixed-asset investment showing policy tightening is producing intended results, while a stable household consumption trend is helping to rebalance, Daiwa says in a note. It notes that 3Q11 GDP growth slowed to 9.1% on-year from 2Q's 9.5% on-year, above the house's 9.0% forecast, September ex-rural FAI growth slowed to 24.8% on-year from August's 25.0% and September retail sales rose 17.7% on-year vs August's 17.0% rise. "This backdrop should give policymakers the confidence to see this tightening campaign to be carried through and a major policy turnaround is not necessary at this stage." But Daiwa adds, downside risks should rise more markedly in 4Q11-1Q12 as a sharper export slowdown is likely and credit conditions appear set to deteriorate further. Daiwa keeps base-case 4Q11 and 1Q12 GDP growth forecasts of 8.5% and 8.2% on-year respectively. It keeps a 25% probability of a hard-landing scenario, with GDP growth falling below 8.0% in the next six months

Boston eFX 04:17 GMT October 19, 2011
Japan Economy Minister: Want To Finish Package On Strong Yen By End Of Week
Reply   
(Dow Jones via eFXnews) Japan's economy minister said Wednesday that the government plans to finish compiling a comprehensive package to deal with the strong yen by the end of the week.

The measures will include .....

Japan Economy Minister: Want To Finish Package On Strong Yen By End Of Week (full story)

TUT EmboGala 04:08 GMT October 19, 2011
Euro

Greece faces general strike over spending cuts


Greece is expected to grind to a halt, with a general strike that could ground flights, halt most public services and shut offices and shops...

Forex Signals 04:03 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   

advice for newbies

GVI Forex Blog 03:57 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   
The news that Germany and France have agreed to increase the Euro zone bail out fund to $2 trillion triggerd a sharp rise in the US markets yesterday.

Morning Briefing : 19-oct-2011 -0340 GMT

Syd 03:45 GMT October 19, 2011
Euro
Reply   
It has been estimated that property developers in Spain owe about €300B to banks - US financial press

TradeTheNews.com

Syd 03:28 GMT October 19, 2011
Euro
Reply   
It has been estimated that property developers in Spain owe about €300B to banks - US financial press

TradeTheNews.com

Hong Kong Qindex 02:59 GMT October 19, 2011
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3800
Reply   
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Daily Cycle Analysis


The daily cycle critical range is 1.3732 - 1.3750 - 1.3775. The market has a tendency to trade within 1.3606 - 1.3913.


Qindex.com


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dZEGYpXE5B4


EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Syd 02:18 GMT October 19, 2011
TradeTheNews.com
Reply   
CHINA AUG CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX M/M: 0.5% V 0.6% PRIOR ----TradeTheNews.com

CHINA SEPT ACTUAL FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) Y/Y: 7.9% V 11.1% PRIOR
TradeTheNews.com

Syd 02:12 GMT October 19, 2011
Nassim Taleb On #OccupyWallStreet And His Updated Views On The Global Banking System
Reply   
There was a time when Nassim Taleb media appearances were a daily thing. Then he decided to take a sabbatical from the public's eye, and literally fell off the face of the planet.

Tonight he broke his vow of silence, and joined Bloomberg TV's in discussing the "Occupy Wall Street" protest, which he expects to devolve into class warfare, as well as his view of the global banking system.

Syd 02:08 GMT October 19, 2011
GBP/USD May Fall If BOE Minutes Dovish -Analyst
Reply   
The GBP/USD may fall, with attention on whether it can hold above 1.5500, if the BOE's minutes from its Oct. 5-6 Monetary Policy Committee meeting due at 0830 GMT reveal an increasingly dovish stance, says Junichi Ishikawa, FX analyst at IG Markets Securities. "The focus is on any signs of possible expansion of quantitative easing," Ishikawa says. "MPC member Miles has already shown a positive stance toward additional quantitative easing, and Deputy Governor Bean has indicated he is looking for weakness in the U.K. economic outlook due to the European debt problems." If the minutes hint at more action in November, "the British pound could come under pressure," Ishikawa says. The GBP/USD is trading at 1.5715

Open 01:53 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   

EUR/USD Daily Asia Outlook 10/19

Open 01:53 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   

GBP/USD Daily Asia Outlook 10/19

Open 01:53 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   

USD/CHF Daily Asia Outlook 10/19

Open 01:53 GMT October 19, 2011 Reply   

USD/CAD Daily Asia Outlook 10/19

TUT EmboGala 01:43 GMT October 19, 2011
gold

Buy Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

Upper Trend

Syd 01:34 GMT October 19, 2011
RBS Joins Citi In Blasting "EFSF As A First Loss Insurance Guarantee" Plan
Reply   
First it was Citi's turn, when earlier, via Willem Buiter, it explained in granular detail, how the EFSF's latest incarnation as a 20% first loss insurance fund, will be not a bazooka but a "peashooter." Now it is the turn of RBS' Harvinder Sian (yes, yes, the same guy who in February 2010 accused Zero Hedge of falsely concluding Greek banks are insolvent... ahem) to mock and ridicule the Guardian's blatant attempt to lift the EURUSD just so momos and piggybackers provided a convenient receptacle for assets that French banks were offloading beginning at 3pm courtesy of this bogus plant, since refuted by Dow Jones.

link

Syd 01:20 GMT October 19, 2011
USDCHF broke above 0.9040 resistance
Reply   

USDCHF broke above 0.9040 resistance, suggesting that a cycle bottom has been formed at 0.8881 on 4-hour chart, further rally is possible later today, and target would be at 0.9100-0.9150 area. However, the rise is treated as consolidation of downtrend from 0.9314, another fall could be seen after consolidation, and a breakdown below 0.8881 could signal resumption of downtrend.


link

hk ab 01:16 GMT October 19, 2011
gold

with more asian buying, it also means that the price can reach higher goals.

hk ab 01:13 GMT October 19, 2011
gold
Reply   
With this strength, we could reach 1680 again easily.

C9 though left a lot on the table, they are still on the right direction every time. Amazing.......

Sydney ACC 00:30 GMT October 19, 2011
Australian Iron Ore
Reply   
The combination of Chinese steel makers insisting on lower iron ore prices and Brazil accepting discounted prices to gain market share is putting significant pressure on Australian's largest iron ore suppliers, according to a report by the Australian Financial Review.

Chinese steel mills are reportedly attempting to renegotiate quarterly prices to more closely track the spot price, which has fallen 15 per cent in the past five weeks.

Meanwhile, Brazilian miner Vale is adjusting its pricing model to meet reduced price demands by Chinese steel producers, which observers say will pressure Australian miners Rio Tinto Ltd, BHP Billiton Ltd and Fortescue Metals Group Ltd to do the same.

In response to data showing China's economy is growing at a slower than expected 9.1 per cent clip, investors yesterday backed away from iron ore miners, which Fortescue Metals Group falling 9.2 per cent, Atlas Iron losing 7.8 per cent and Rio Tinto sliding more than five per cent, according to the AFR.

Syd 00:28 GMT October 19, 2011
Buiter Says All Banks at Risk if Euro Crisis Escalates Further
Reply   
Citigroup Inc. Chief Economist Willem Buiter said all banks in advanced economies could be at risk if European leaders lose control of the region’s sovereign- debt crisis.

“If things get out of hand in the euro area, no bank in the financial-integrated world will stand,” Buiter told lawmakers at a parliamentary hearing in London today.

Banks and other systemically-important financial institutions need to be recapitalized before any sovereign restructurings of euro-zone members with high debt levels such as Greece or Portugal, the economist said. “If they don’t, we are setting ourselves up for a financial crisis following the sovereign crisis,” he said.

I don’t expect that there will be a grand plan, a grand design, even a big bazooka for that matter, on Oct. 23 when the European heads of government meet, or on Nov. 4,” Buiter said.

Syd 00:10 GMT October 19, 2011
TradeTheNews.com AUSTRALIA SEPT DEWR INTERNET SKILLED VACANCIES:
Reply   
*(AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT DEWR INTERNET SKILLED VACANCIES: -1.3% V -0.6% PRIOR (4-month low and 3rd consecutive decline


 




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