Syd 23:42 GMT November 1, 2011
Alan Greenspan: The Eurozone is Set to Fail
Reply
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
In a recent interview with CNBC, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan stated that the Eurozone is doomed to fail because the divide between the northern and southern countries is just too great.
Greenspan predicts that as the fiscal problems of Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece grow worse, the influx of goods from Germany and France will dry up. When this happens, the standard of living for the southern Eurozone members will decline.
He added: “The effect of the divergent cultures in the Eurozone has been grossly underestimated… The only way to have several currencies from divergent nations lumped together is if they are culturally close, such as Germany, the Netherlands and Austria. If they aren’t, it simply can’t continue to work.”
dc CB 23:41 GMT November 1, 2011
Liquidity Scramble Begins In MF Commingling Aftermath
So I have a futures acct with them...I closed it friday morning. had no positions open and only a small amnt of cash.
Yesterday I called because the acct was still open and was told it was being closed. Received monthly statement today...acct still open. I'm just small potatoes here.
By law these funds are held in segregated accts....should be able to get the cash instantly....wired if requested anywhere.
So now basically all accts are "frozen" only liqudation trades are allowed. MF has(had) a large presence in commodity futures and SnP futures as a "clearing" house.
When the CME banned them yesterday....I guess the CME "knew" something the rest of the world didn't. And who are the "owners" the CME....?
for further thoughts on this see:
Are the Clients of MF Global Insured Against Fraud?
HK RF@ 23:35 GMT November 1, 2011
Be happy and smile.
Reply
All can be solved by printing money.
The important big banks will be saved the smaller one will go.
The Greeks will definitely vote one big NO!!!
Cambridge Joe 23:21 GMT November 1, 2011
...
Reply
CB in the UK there is a magazine called Private Eye which exposes corruption and government waste/ ineptitude.
they have phrases and sayings such as 'Ugandan negotiations' which means Burlesqueoni type activities, and for all the Tony Bliar fans out there.... 'caught in an act of self delight'....
I'll leave it to your imagination...
;-)
dc CB 23:13 GMT November 1, 2011
Past Midnight Headlines From Greece Send zEURq.PK Tumbling
Reply
Nothing really new per se, just G-Pap reiterating, now that his meeting is finally over at about 2 am local, that the referendum will proceed as noted earlier, probably some time in January, and Europe will like it or leave it.
GREEKS TO VOTE ON EURO MEMBERSHIP IN REFERENDUM: PAPANDREOU - BBG
GREEK PM SAYS PARTNERS WILL RESPECT AND SUPPORT GREECE'S EFFORTS -RTRS
What? Or Else? And how does this mesh with the following headline from Bloomberg:
* Netherlands Will Try to Get Greek Referendum Canceled, PM Says
At what point do the crazy pills run out already?
EUR luvin' itself some express elevator action.
ZH
Syd 23:05 GMT November 1, 2011
Political Paralysis Prevails in Italy
Reply
Italy's partners in Europe are angered by Rome's apparent inability to bring its debt mess into order. Silvio Berlusconi's failures and a state of political paralysis have allowed the country to slide to the center of the European financial crisis. The opposition appears to be powerless and many wonder if the Italians are still capable of solving their problems on their own.
www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,795143,00.html#ref=nlint
dc CB 22:53 GMT November 1, 2011
MF Global Admits Using Client Money, AP Says
Reply
A federal official says MF Global, the securities firm led by Jon Corzine, admitted to using clients' money as its financial troubles mounted.
An MF Global executive admitted that to federal regulators in a phone call early Monday after regulators discovered money missing from clients' accounts, according to an official familiar with the conversation.
The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss a preliminary investigation by federal regulators.
Government rules require securities firms to keep clients' money and company money in separate accounts. Violating them could result in civil penalties.
Syd 22:49 GMT November 1, 2011
RBA TradeTheNews.com
Reply
Fixed income markets indicating about 70% chance of another 25bps cut by RBA at the next meeting in December - financial press
TradeTheNews.com
dc CB 22:48 GMT November 1, 2011
Liquidity Scramble Begins In MF Commingling Aftermath
Reply
"Reports of short falls of client money ... if true would be a disaster for all the smaller brokers and banks as nobody will trust them anymore," one London trader said.
In Australia, trading in grain futures and options was suspended by bourse operator ASX Ltd , prompting concerns about the integrity of the country's agricultural futures market. "We're sitting out here with risk that we can't cover," said Jonathan Barratt, head of Sydney-based Commodity Broking Services.
MF Global was one of the largest participants in the country's agricultural futures market. And it is all only going to get worse as the liquidity outflow avalanche is realized, following the market's most recent distraction with Europe.
ZH
Syd 22:42 GMT November 1, 2011
Euro TradeTheNews.com
Reply
Dutch PM Rutte: Will try to pressure Greece to cancel referendum on Friday; Need a contingency plan in case Greece votes No
Greece PM Papandreou to pose separate questions on Europe and Euro in referendum vote
TradeTheNews.com
Lahore FM 22:28 GMT November 1, 2011
" Trade Ideas "
Buy USDJPY
Entry: 78.40 Target: 90.00 Stop:
long here.
possibly those days are here where usdjpy rises without setting off carry run...where all pairs show usd strength almost evenly.
hk ab 22:24 GMT November 1, 2011
gold
Reply
am happy to see the gold longs are still survived.
KL, give me 1 more bounce above 1725 and I will exit all except 1 entry left.
GVI Forex john 22:20 GMT November 1, 2011
Calendar
Reply
November 1 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, November 2.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
- Far East: JP- BOJ Minutes.
- Europe: EZ- Mfg PMI. DE- Employment.
- North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, ADP Private Jobs, Weekly Crude, Fed Decision, Bernanke Press Conference.
GVI Forex Blog 21:54 GMT November 1, 2011
Reply
Market outlook
AUD/USD and NZD/USD outlook next 24 hours: Eurozone headlines will again dominate the day ahead until the FOMC meeting (5:30am NZT tomorrow). AUD’s corrective rally since 4 Oct looks complete and a large downward leg is probably developing, targeting sub-1.0000. Near-term, a minor bounce to 1.0450 is likely. It’s a similar story for the NZD, a bounce to 0.8040 likely near-term before a large decline to the low 70’s.
Forex - Morning Report (Westpac)
KL KL 21:53 GMT November 1, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets
When the Crap hits the Fan.....we are suddenly so inclusive as to involve the people....Many years ago....we use the same Financial Manipulation to get people's votes to win government. When things go so horribly wrong into the future the Pain starts to bite and the people cry. We are being manipulated every which way you look.....One just have to sell and buy the Lie.........
in 2 days Dow have dropped about 600 points....2 days ago euphoria and those shorters had to cover...now its like pay back time.......this is the market we need and price is power!!
Like the Coles jingle "down, down, prices are down"......LOL!!!;-))
gl gt all
GVI Forex john 21:09 GMT November 1, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets
Reply
-
Key
Items- EZ-Mfg PMI, DE- Employment. US- ADP, Fed, Bernanke.
-
Markets
headed in unexpected directions Tuesday with Greek PM Papandreou
calling for a national referendum on the latest EZ bail out package.
Apparently, this idea has sunk from its own weight. Not sure if this
government will survive.
-
The MF
Global failure continues to fester with that some customer funds
might have been used to support losing company trades. The CFTC has
indicated that it is having difficulty sorting the MF Global
accounts out.
-
As
expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered rates by 25bps to
4.50%. More cuts could be in the pipeline.
-
U.K.
data out Tuesday were mixed to weaker than expected as were Chinese
PMI releases.
-
Markets
are especially looking forward to the Fed decision Wednesday,
followed by the Bernanke press conference. The first ECB decision
under new President Draghi will be another top highlight of the
week. Of course, the monthly jobless data on Friday are always a
major event. .
-
Otherwise
this is an exceptionally active week for news with numerous key
central bank decisions and major data points due. The G20 leaders
conference in Cannes, France will take place on Thursday and Friday
of this week.
KL KL 21:03 GMT November 1, 2011
" Trade Ideas "
I am in short Gold too 1720.10...just entered 3 seconds ago and keep adding every $2-3 above....my zone of comfort....
and ftse / dow futures 5453 & 11731 respectively
GVI Forex Blog 21:00 GMT November 1, 2011
Reply
Key Items- EZ-Mfg PMI, DE- Employment. US- ADP, Fed, Bernanke.
Markets headed in unexpected directions Tuesday with Greek PM Papandreou calling for a national referendum on the latest EZ bail out package. Apparently, this idea has sunk from its own weight. Not sure if this government will survive.
Forex Trade Talk 00:00 GMT 2 November 2011
GVI Forex john 20:55 GMT November 1, 2011
USD Piivot Points
Reply
Pivots EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD AUDUSD
Res 3 1.4093 79.26 0.9172 1.6257 1.0514 1.0795
Res 2 1.3982 78.94 0.9066 1.6175 1.0360 1.0680
Res 1 1.3830 78.64 0.8973 1.6053 1.0277 1.0497
Pivot 1.3719 78.32 0.8867 1.5971 1.0123 1.0382
Sup 1 1.3567 78.02 0.8774 1.5849 1.0040 1.0199
Sup 2 1.3456 77.70 0.8668 1.5767 0.9886 1.0084
Sup 3 1.3304 77.40 0.8575 1.5645 0.9803 0.9901
GVI Forex john 20:53 GMT November 1, 2011
USD Moving Averages
Reply
|
11/1/2011
|
20:00
|
GMT
|
|
|
|
|
|
Latest
|
EURUSD
|
USDJPY
|
USDCHF
|
GBPUSD
|
USDCAD
|
AUDUSD
|
|
Last
|
1.3678
|
78.35
|
0.8881
|
1.5931
|
1.0193
|
1.0313
|
|
High
|
1.3871
|
78.61
|
0.8959
|
1.6093
|
1.0207
|
1.0566
|
|
Low
|
1.3608
|
77.99
|
0.8760
|
1.5889
|
0.9970
|
1.0268
|
|
Change
|
-0.0162
|
0.20
|
0.0106
|
-0.0150
|
0.0226
|
-0.0225
|
|
MVA
|
EURUSD
|
USDJPY
|
USDCHF
|
GBPUSD
|
USDCAD
|
AUDUSD
|
|
5 day
|
1.3953
|
76.89
|
0.8738
|
1.6037
|
1.0010
|
1.0535
|
|
10 day
|
1.3900
|
76.62
|
0.8808
|
1.5968
|
1.0068
|
1.0438
|
|
20 day
|
1.3775
|
76.73
|
0.8933
|
1.5812
|
1.0161
|
1.0236
|
|
50 day
|
1.3824
|
76.80
|
0.8750
|
1.5843
|
1.0073
|
1.0242
|
|
100 day
|
1.4060
|
77.82
|
0.8423
|
1.6025
|
0.9884
|
1.0434
|
|
200 day
|
1.4102
|
79.87
|
0.8727
|
1.6138
|
0.9810
|
1.0407
|
|
TREND
|
EURUSD
|
USDJPY
|
USDCHF
|
GBPUSD
|
USDCAD
|
AUDUSD
|
|
BIAS
|
Up
|
Up
|
Down
|
Up
|
Down
|
Up
|
GVI Forex john 20:37 GMT November 1, 2011
ALERT- U.S. API Data
Reply
-- ALERT --
U.S. API Weekly Energy Inventories (mln)
(Expectations and Prev are for EIA data)
Crude Oil: -0.156 vs. +1.200 exp. vs. +4.700 prev.
Gasoline: -1.13 vs. -0.500 exp. vs. -1.350 prev.
Distillates: -3.43 vs. -1.400 exp. vs -4.270 prev.
Cap/Util: 83.6% vs. 84.90% exp. vs. 84.80% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
GVI Forex john 20:00 GMT November 1, 2011
FX Database
Reply
UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of
data in Excel spreadsheet format.
Boston eFX 19:43 GMT November 1, 2011
Dollar In Long-Term Decline, Analysts Say
Reply
(Dow Jones via eFXnews) The dollar is likely to lose its value against other currencies over the next few years, investors and analysts at a foreign-exchange conference said Tuesday.
Speakers at Euromoney's 8th Annual Forex Forum USA conference in New York largely agreed that the U.S. currency would depreciate over the next three to five years even if investors periodically scramble to buy dollars in the near term to avoid flare-ups of Europe's debt crisis.
"I'm positioned for a......
Dollar In Long-Term Decline, Analysts Say (full story)
Lahore FM 19:41 GMT November 1, 2011
" Trade Ideas "
Sell Gold
Entry: 1718.40 Target: Stop:
sold again 1718.40.
earlier sell stopped on half portion at entry for 33.30 usd.
GVI Forex Blog 18:58 GMT November 1, 2011
Reply
19:00 GMT (Global-View.com) November 1- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is ending in North America at .5144, +0.68% from its Monday close (-4.38% ytd).
Global-View D.O.G. Index November 1, 2011 U.S. Close
GVI Forex john 18:56 GMT November 1, 2011
Global-View D.O.G. Iindex
Reply
19:00 GMT (Global-View.com) November 1- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power
index is ending in North America at .5144, +0.68% from its Monday close (-4.38% ytd).
As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7557, +0.73% (-2.89% ytd). The forex index
is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.
Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is currently worth .1677, +0.23% (-17.35% ytd).
Against crude, it is at 0.4840, +0.76% (-0.75% ytd). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is set against levels from
the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).
D.O.G. Homepage
GVI Forex john 17:31 GMT November 1, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets
-- Market-Moving News --
Report: Greek PM's Referendum Call "Basically Dead" - Socialist. €/$ spiking higher.
matsudo matsudo 17:28 GMT November 1, 2011
jpy
Reply
monday boj biggest intervention and now look at jpy pairs weekly chart.....
jerusalem kb 16:52 GMT November 1, 2011
Forex Trading Plan
Buy USDCHF
Entry: 0.8745 Target: 0.8812-0.8993 Stop: 0.8690
buy stop
=========
out with 144pips.
GVI Forex Blog 16:39 GMT November 1, 2011
Reply
EUR/USD (daily chart) as of Tuesday (11/01/2011) has dropped precipitously since the beginning of this trading week from its high last week around key 1.4250 resistance (also the underside of
EUR/USD Bearish Correction of Bullish Correction
Israel Dil 16:38 GMT November 1, 2011
euro
US debt is only 30 times as the one of Greece, isn't ?
gl/gt
Saar KaL 16:26 GMT November 1, 2011
US Housing Temp North
Reply
^HGX Index
is fine till dec
G High G Low
101.7661 93.4605
Day High Day Low
97.9367 95.2874
98.6812 94.4596
99.4257 93.6319
100.1702 92.8041
100.9147 91.9764
GVI Forex john 16:21 GMT November 1, 2011
euro
I don't really know. I guess its only half priced in.
Boston eFX 16:20 GMT November 1, 2011
Road To Currency War Leads Through Cannes
Reply
(Dow Jones via eFXnews) Leaders from the Group of 20 industrialized and emerging economies may be gearing up for their trip to Cannes this week but, in the currency markets at least, there's little sign of the sort of international co-operation such get-togethers are meant to foster.
Rather, scattered skirmishes proliferate across the foreign exchange front lines and all the major currencies are .....
Road To Currency War Leads Through Cannes (full story)
kl fs 16:19 GMT November 1, 2011
euro
thanks John, but isn't it already priced in?
GVI Forex john 16:16 GMT November 1, 2011
euro
fs- problem is there will probably be a debt default first. That be very negative EUR.
kl fs 16:13 GMT November 1, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets
Kevin, short term i think it is very positive for euro, wouldnt be surprised to see a quick run to 1.38 again
kl fs 16:10 GMT November 1, 2011
euro
Reply
wouldnt it be positive for euro if Greece is out?
Richland QC Mailman 16:09 GMT November 1, 2011
FX Trading is like a Chess Match
Reply
It is never easy to earn profits in forex. It is hard to outguess, outdo or outmaneuver the market.
But if one knows the principles of chess match, a trader can win in some good battles he chooses to engage. He need not win the whole war for it is impossible to win vs. the master market.
As in a typical chess match, let the pawns go first. They are the front-liners who can be sacrificed. These are like your small positions (buy or sell) which you can field early on in your chosen battle. If you win it, then end of story. But in case you are losing temporarily, then call the officers - the bishop and the knight (they can represent 2 or more positions or double the previous no. of positions you have fielded). They will reinforce the pawns. If they are able to contain the opponent, then a trader goes home with the pips in his pocket.
Finally, let the queen and rook/tower unleash its mighty power (e.g. 10 positions) in case there is still trouble OR the trader is going for the juggernaut - the home-run. The home-run is a very high probability set-up where the position is expected to yield substantial gains. Timing should be near perfect entry and the math should be such that when one closes all his positions, it is still NET gain.
Problem with some traders is that they immediately dispatch their officials early on. When they are slain, how can pawns carry on the battle?
In summary, learn the strategies of a brilliantly played chess match. Principles are definitely applicable to trading. And it can generate consistent money - if not a fortune.
GVI Forex john 15:54 GMT November 1, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets
-- Market-Moving News --
Greek Emergency Cabinet Meeting starts at around noon NY time. Best bet is that the government does not last the night.- CNBC
Greek 2-yr now 111.78%. Strong demand for U.S. treasuries. €/$ Steady.
GVI Forex Blog 15:44 GMT November 1, 2011
Reply
The risk aversion sentiment drove FX trading. In a week that was supposed to be focused on the FOMC and ECB policy meetings, the US employment report and the G20 conference, global markets have been pitched a number of curveballs at this point. First there was the BOJ intervention, then the MF Global bankruptcy and now a fresh Greek crisis. The latter had put global markets into a risk-off mode and sent the euro tumbling towards the lower end of the 1.36 handle.
TradeTheNews.com US Market Update
GVI Forex john 15:41 GMT November 1, 2011
Global-View.com Forex Heat Maps
USD Heat Map
Note Currencies vs USD, that the JPY and EUR 30 day averages have decisively flipped. A number of other pair are waiting in the wings.
GVI Forex john 15:18 GMT November 1, 2011
Calendar
Reply
November 1 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, November 2.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
- Far East: JP- BOJ Minutes.
- Europe: EZ- Mfg PMI. DE- Employment.
- North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, ADP Private Jobs, Weekly Crude, Fed Decision, Bernanke Press Conference.
Richland QC Mailman 15:14 GMT November 1, 2011
Liquidity
HI DRS2. You are not alone I think. We have faced several occasions when our broker cannot fill in our orders, consecutive re-quotes in closing a position. For 5x, we were having internet connection problems too. I think it was due in part to extreme market volatility.
Lahore FM 15:02 GMT November 1, 2011
" Trade Ideas "
correction**
filled for 33.30** USD
Minneapolis DRS2 15:01 GMT November 1, 2011
Liquidity
Reply
Has anyone noticed fill problems today?
My broker is claiming "internet problems", but they have been taking forever (10-15 secs) to fill my EUR/USD orders. It's annoying...especially because they've been hitting me with 4-5 pips slippage (in their favor of course).
It's not a usual occurrence, so I may give them the benefit of the doubt. But still...
Lahore FM 15:00 GMT November 1, 2011
" Trade Ideas "
Sell Gold
Entry: 1718.30 Target: 1630 for 2nd half Stop: 1718.30 for half
Lahore FM 03:27:16 GMT - 11/01/2011
Sell Gold
Entry: 1718.30 Target: 1685 for half Stop: 1728
sold.oreders in for t/p and s/l.
--
filled for 43.30 USD at 1685 while away.rest of the short runs with entry sl.
Richland QC Mailman 14:54 GMT November 1, 2011
Aussie - at buying levels
Richland QC Mailman 13:30 GMT November 1, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level: Reply
New longs for gbp/usd and aussie also at current levels.
----------------------------------------------------
Ok folks. We have liquidated our gbp/usd longs above 1.5955 and Aussies near 1.0350. Flirting with disaster, we have managed to escape and realize some handsome NET gains for the day again.
Day to day, we have successfully increased our equity by about 47% on strong leverage, doing some risky yet rewarding contrarian trades.
nyc s 14:51 GMT November 1, 2011
911
Medical or psychological care?
HK RF@ 14:48 GMT November 1, 2011
911
nyc s
No one can call and no one can answer.
They are all under special medical care.
nyc s 14:40 GMT November 1, 2011
911
Reply
Merkel and Sarkozy have a 911 call to China - HELP!!!!!!!
HK RF@ 14:38 GMT November 1, 2011
If you are Euro-long...
Saar KaL 14:34 GMT
Though your point is correct, but I think the mkts. do not see things that way.
Greece has a multiplier effect beyond it's relative size.
Saar KaL 14:34 GMT November 1, 2011
If you are Euro-long...
RF
Greece GDP is not even 3% of EUROPE
I do not think it matters
Italy GDP is very small compared to germany
Saar KaL 14:32 GMT November 1, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level
The news is always behind the mkt
Not the other way
EURUSD Expected mean max for Dec is about 1.50
very near around 1.4070
next week 1.4430
HK RF@ 14:31 GMT November 1, 2011
If you are Euro-long...
Beware of weekends; ECB with help of computers can do lot of miracles.
It is clear that Greece wants out.
Withdrawals may push banks to do nasty things before some of them may collapse within days.
Some of big player's paper gold may be replaced to real gold ingots stored in big Safety deposit box.
No doubt interesting times.
Saar KaL 14:13 GMT November 1, 2011
gold
silver heading to more then 42 Guys
HK RF@ 14:13 GMT November 1, 2011
If you are Euro-long...
Reply
Maybe part of your Euro account will soon be replaced by New Greek Drachma, which will fall 70% on the first trading day:))
Saar KaL 14:11 GMT November 1, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level
C BAC GS all Buys for at least a Month
Watch the news later on
SP will give up grade after da news
GVI Forex john 14:06 GMT November 1, 2011
ALERT- U.S. Data
U.S. mfg PMI weaker than forecast...
hk ab 14:05 GMT November 1, 2011
gold
Reply
out 1 lot at 1698. rest s/l at entry will switch off the computer tonight.
Saar KaL 14:05 GMT November 1, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level
caba
i did not say 100000%
i said 1:1000 that it might hit 79 and above
if that ok with any trader then fine
I am sorry about how i stated it
but that is what i have
HK RF@ 14:02 GMT November 1, 2011
They(Greece) are out with the loot
Reply
Better Greece be kicked as soon as possible out from the EU.
Maybe Papandreou was humiliated by the French big mouth which said that Greece by the first place should not be allowed to join the Euro:)))
The Referendum is the sweet revenge. And Greece will walk away with what they squeezed, laughing at everyone(100% Haircut) LOL.
GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT November 1, 2011
ALERT- U.S. Data
Reply
-- ALERT --
U.S. Manufacturing PMI October 2011
50.8 vs. 52.5 exp. vs. 51.6 prev.
Construction Spending September 2011
+0.2% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +1.60%r prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
hk ab 13:54 GMT November 1, 2011
gold
Reply
will see the reaction at 1695-1700.
If possible, hopefully to put a s/l at entry and let it fly.
now s/l at entry. but may take profit if 1700 is too tough.
Vienna GD 13:34 GMT November 1, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level
caba ... point of my message is: trading systems work as long as markets work the way trading systems expect them to work ... though there are rare times when markets stop working as expected ...
10000% certain ... jpy will never visit 79 in next 2 years ... that is a type of language I will never forget ...
take care
Syd 13:31 GMT November 1, 2011
Germany, Italy Most Exposed To Greek Default Via CDS -Moody's
Reply
Germany, Austria and Italy appear to be the most exposed to a default on Greek debt, after banks in those nations sold the most protection against a default by non-Aaa Europe sovereign in the CDS market in recent months, according to a report by Moody's. Germany's Deutsche Bank said in its third-quarter results that it "remains a sizeable seller of CDS protection," said the ratings agency, noting that the bank reported having EUR2.3 billion of net notional exposure to non-Aaa euro-area sovereign CDS. Conversely, those banks in Germany and Italy would benefit from the CDS not being triggered by the current debt exchange. French, Dutch and Swiss banks have bought the most CDS protection on non-Aaa sovereigns, and banks in those countries could pocket payouts if the CDS are triggered on a default
Boris Schlossberg
Basically a bet on the $EURUSD is bet on Berlusconi which a sucker trade just like a bet on $ was a loser trade when Bush 2 was POTUS
hk ab 13:31 GMT November 1, 2011
gold
Reply
Entry: 1684 Target: 1725-1750 Stop: 1677
easy trade. Happy everyone.
Richland QC Mailman 13:30 GMT November 1, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level
New longs for gbp/usd and aussie also at current levels.
Israel Dil 13:22 GMT November 1, 2011
EUR/USD 01-NOV-2011
Reply
1.3577 may represent good longs for 24hrs at least.
gl/gt
Saar KaL 13:13 GMT November 1, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level
CABA
Meaning 1:1000 that you might
There still a chance
philadelphia caba 13:07 GMT November 1, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level
how any serious trader can use the word 'never'?
Syd 12:54 GMT November 1, 2011
Fitch: Greek referendum threat to eurozone financial stability
Reply
Juncker: If Greeks vote “no”, can’t exclude bankruptcy-Reuters
Greek referendum proposal adds great nervousness and insecurity to an already insecure situation
PM took decision without talking it through with European colleagues
Sellers camped at 1.3700 and above, traders say
Saar KaL 12:54 GMT November 1, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level
USDCHF longer term tgt .80
USDJPY will never see 79 again for 2 years
Long EURUSD, GBPUSD AUDUSD and NZDUSD
GVI Forex john 12:52 GMT November 1, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets
-- Market-Moving News --
Six Greek ruling party members call on Papandreou to resign. No-confidence vote Wed-Thu. €/$ falling. Strong demand for U.S. treasuries.
Lahore FM 12:51 GMT November 1, 2011
" Trade Ideas "
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.4010 Target: 1.2700 for last 1/3rd Stop: 1.4010 for last 1/3rd
Lahore FM 19:24:31 GMT - 10/31/2011
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.4010 Target: 1.2700 Stop: 1.4020 bid for 2/3rds
Lahore FM 05:55:54 GMT - 10/31/2011
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.4010 Target: Stop:
sold.
Lahore FM 05:39:18 GMT - 10/31/2011
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
it can be fairly straight line to 1.2700 over next 20 to 30 sessions imho!
--
closed 1/3rd at 1.3871 now.sl placed on rest of it.
--
closed second 1/3rd portion at 1.3620 for 390 + pips in all so far.
In a fairly straight line!
London Mick 12:48 GMT November 1, 2011
euro and others
Reply
This is not a day to fish for a bottoms imvvho
GVI Forex Blog 11:55 GMT November 1, 2011
Reply
The euro fell more than one percent versus the dollar and yen on Tuesday as investors cut exposure to the common currency after Greece's unexpected call for a referendum revived uncertainty over how the euro zone will solve its debt crisis.
FOREX NEWS - Euro falls, Greek referendum call weighs
GVI Forex john 11:01 GMT November 1, 2011
Global-View.com Forex Heat Maps
USD Heat Map
Be Sure to MANUALLY refresh the forum to load the latest version.
Currencies (except JPY) down substantially vs. USD.
Note that the critical 20-day moving averages are just about to flip over.
Commodities are down.
EUR is mixed
Comments ??
Syd 10:50 GMT November 1, 2011
Italy Foreign Minister Says Sarkozy Made Italy's Woes Worse-Report
Reply
ROME A senior Italian politician lashed out at France Monday, saying President Nicolas Sarkozy was partly to blame for Italy's increasing sovereign debt problems.
Sarkozy helped trigger a "premeditated speculative attack" by saying that if last week's European Union summit hadn't saved Greece it would have pushed Italy over the brink, Italian foreign Minister Franco Frattini said in an interview published Tuesday by Rome daily Il Messaggero.
Frattini said Sarkozy's gaffe was at least as unfortunate as Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's description last Friday of the euro as a "strange currency that nobody believed in."
Italian 10-year government bonds rose to an all-time high above equivalent German bunds Tuesday, while Italian bank shares also fell heavily. However, French bank shares fell even more after the Greek government announced late Monday that it may hold a referendum on the austerity reforms it has agreed to in exchange for bailout loans.
Frattini, who spoke with Il Messaggero shortly after speaking with Italian President Giorgio Napolitano, also appealed to world leaders attending G-20 meetings starting Thursday, to hold a summit "of courage, not of uncertainty and vileness."
www.ilmessaggero.it
GVI Forex Blog 10:47 GMT November 1, 2011
Reply
The greenback was firmer during the European morning but off its best levels. The decision by Greece to call a referendum brings into focus how the political process was undermining broader euro area solutions. The USD accelerated as risk aversion dominated amid euro zone uncertainty and growth concerns after mixed leads from China manufacturing PMI risk aversion set in. The degree of uncertainty was reflected by various peripheral spreads
TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Risk aversion gains the upper hand on Greek plans for bailout referendum
Richland QC Mailman 10:40 GMT November 1, 2011
euro
Nice euro buying matsudo. This is what we call a looming false break on the downside and reversal.
Richland QC Mailman 10:38 GMT November 1, 2011
Aussie - at buying levels
More at 1.0307. Hmmm... northern momentum could be slowly building up.
GVI Forex Jay 10:37 GMT November 1, 2011
Forex Weathermap - EURUSD
Reply
10:25 GMT (Global-View.com) Nov 1 - In a week that was supposed to be focused on the FOMC and ECB meetings, the US employment report and the G20 meeting, global markets have been thrown a curveball, first by BOJ intervention, the MF Global bankruptcy, and then by a fresh Greek crisis. The latter has sent global markets into a risk off mode and the euro tumbling.
As for the eurusd, it is back below its 20 day mva (1.3758) and on the defensive, now dependent on 1.3650-55 holding to keep the focus from shifting to 1.3500. Using retracements, 1.3565 = 61.8% of 1.3144-1.4247
Daily Forex WeatherMap - by Jay Meisler
Nov 1, 2011 EURUSD (Current rate: 1.3690)
Bias: Negative while below 1,3795-00, stronger if its holds below 1.3758 (20 day mva) but downside contained as long as it stays above 1.3650-55. This suggests 1.3650-1.3700 is a pivotal area as below 1.3650 would put 1.35 back on the radar. Expected range: 1.3650-55/1.3600/1.3565 -1.3740/1.3758/1.3780/1.3800
www.global-view.com See more on the
Forex Forum
GVI Forex john 10:33 GMT November 1, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets
- Add to the calendar, the G20 conference in Cannes on Thursday and Friday.
- Early today also saw very weak Swiss PMI data (see charts below) and additional soft Chinese PMI data.
- Not sure where this MF Global mess is headed. A weekend deal fell through after some customer funds could not be located.
- Japanese forex intervention was a record USD130bln yesterday according to government sources.
matsudo matsudo 10:30 GMT November 1, 2011
euro
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.3675 Target: open Stop: 1.3625
bought again....
Richland QC Mailman 10:23 GMT November 1, 2011
euro
Hi CT. That is 1000K I guess. Or equivalent to 1 standard lot. e.g. 422 x $1 = $422. Could be relatively large or minsicule for some traders depending on risk and profit appetite.
Anyway, can't help ourselves but to buy euros again at 1.3700.
GVI Forex john 10:22 GMT November 1, 2011
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets
Reply
-
Key
Items- US- Mfg PMI.
-
We
were expecting an active week, but the markets have headed in an
unexpected direction with the Greek PM calling for a national
referendum on the latest EZ bail out package and the MF Global
failure taking an ominous turn. There is talk that some customer
funds might have been used to support losing company trades.
-
As
expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered rates by 25bps to
4.50%. More cuts could be in the pipeline.
-
Markets
are especially looking forward to the Fed decision Wednesday,
followed by the Bernanke press conference. The first ECB decision
under new President Draghi will be another top highlight of the
week. Of course, the monthly jobless data on Friday are always a
major event. .
-
Otherwise
this is an exceptionally active week for news with numerous key
central bank decisions and major data points due. This will be one of the most active
data calendar weeks of the year.
Syd 10:22 GMT November 1, 2011
EUR/USD To 1.3650 And Potentially Lot Lower - ING
Reply
EUR/USD could well fall to 1.3650 and potentially a lot lower, ING says, as the bank ponders whether Greece is the new Argentina after Papandreou's call for a national referendum. The bank recalls that the South American country decided to abandon its peg to the dollar in 2001 after several changes of governments, aid packages and debt restructuring. "While European authorities may well be finding capital to enhance the support of the EFSF, this won't help confidence if Greece decides it has had enough of the euro zone," Chris Turner, a currency strategist at ING says
GVI Forex Blog 10:21 GMT November 1, 2011
Reply
Key Items- US- Mfg PMI.
We were expecting an active week, but the markets have headed in an unexpected direction with the Greek PM calling for a national referendum on the latest EZ bail out package and the MF Global failure taking an ominous turn. There is talk that some customer funds might have been used to support losing company trades.
Forex Trade Talk 10:00 GMT 1 November 2011
GVI Forex john 10:19 GMT November 1, 2011
China PMIs
Reply
Hovering just above contraction. HSBC figure is more closely followed...
GVI Forex john 10:15 GMT November 1, 2011
Swiss PMI
Reply
Earlier very weak PMI...
Richland QC Mailman 10:09 GMT November 1, 2011
Aussie - at buying levels
Reply
Ok folks. We have received a buying signal at 1.0320. Have taken contrarian longs here.
GVI Forex john 10:08 GMT November 1, 2011
ALERT- U.K. GDP
Rounding error away from recession...
Ldn CT 10:06 GMT November 1, 2011
euro
Mailman, when you say 422 pips. What is the size of each position? 422 pips for 10K positions is equivalent to 42.2 pips for a 100K position
GVI Forex john 10:05 GMT November 1, 2011
ALERT- U.K. PMI
Weaker than expected mfg PMI...
Richland QC Mailman 10:02 GMT November 1, 2011
euro
Richland QC Mailman 08:31 GMT November 1, 2011
eurusd: Reply
As planned earlier, bought multiple euro long positions when euro touched 1.3677/80.
----------------------------------------------------------
Ok folks. Multiple euro positions (10 possies) all out at 1.3730 and 3725 for +422 pips. More than enough to yield a NET Gain for the day before NY after absorbing -82 pips for 2 positions bought at 3768.
Sideline for now.
GVI Forex Blog 09:55 GMT November 1, 2011
Reply
09:55 GMT (Global-View.com) November 1- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is opening in North America at .5159, +0.96% from its Monday close (-4.11% ytd).
Global-View D.O.G. Index November 1, 2011 U.S. Open
GVI Forex john 09:53 GMT November 1, 2011
Global-View D.O.G. Index
Reply
09:55 GMT (Global-View.com) November 1- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power
index is opening in North America at .5159, +0.96% from its Monday close (-4.11% ytd).
As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7562, +0.80% (-2.82% ytd). The forex index
is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.
Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is currently worth .1685, +0.73% (-16.94% ytd).
Against crude, it is at 0.4896, +1.91% (+0.38% ytd). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is set against levels from
the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).
D.O.G. Homepage
Syd 09:36 GMT November 1, 2011
Euro Trouble Sealed By Greek Ballot - SocGen
Reply
The euro's trouble is sealed by Greece's referendum on the country's latest bailout, with investors likely to remain nervous until the vote early next year, according to Societe Generale. "Low European growth and market speculation on an ECB rate cut down the road has not proven much of a driver for EUR/USD," the bank says, suggesting Greek nerves are set to dominate for now. EUR/USD trades at 1.3708
matsudo rana 09:14 GMT November 1, 2011
euro
Entry: 1.368pending Target: open Stop: 1.36
out from long 15pips will buy below 1.37
Syd 09:10 GMT November 1, 2011
euro
Reply
Italy CDS approaching 500bp again - 495bp (+53)// Italy is the new Greece
Saar KaL 09:07 GMT November 1, 2011
accumulation
AUDNZD
G High G Low
1.3293 1.2962
Day High Day Low
1.3108 1.2989
1.3132 1.2969
1.3155 1.2949
1.3178 1.2929
1.3202 1.2909
Might see 1.40 longer term
Saar KaL 08:56 GMT November 1, 2011
accumulation
Silver
G High G Low
38.8167 34.6141
Day High Day Low
34.9457 33.4478
35.2463 32.9564
35.5469 32.4651
35.8475 31.9737
36.1481 31.4823
AUDJPY
G High G Low
85.7560 79.8947
Day High Day Low
82.9110 81.5297
83.2073 81.2141
83.5036 80.8985
83.7999 80.5829
84.0962 80.2673
CADJPY
G High G Low
80.5196 74.9771
Day High Day Low
78.6117 77.4932
78.8719 77.2543
79.1321 77.0153
79.3924 76.7763
79.6526 76.5374
NZDJPY
G High G Low
65.6554 60.7345
Day High Day Low
63.5273 62.4139
63.7589 62.1368
63.9905 61.8596
64.2220 61.5824
64.4536 61.3052
Saar KaL 08:45 GMT November 1, 2011
accumulation
nzdusd
G High G Low
0.8441 0.8005
Day High Day Low
0.8125 0.7993
0.8152 0.7961
0.8178 0.7929
0.8204 0.7897
0.8230 0.7865
eurjpy
G High G Low
113.1427 105.7193
Day High Day Low
108.9821 107.4345
109.3504 107.1267
109.7188 106.8189
110.0872 106.5111
110.4555 106.2032
GBPJPY
G High G Low
128.5007 121.5536
Day High Day Low
126.4155 124.9170
126.8080 124.6278
127.2004 124.3386
127.5929 124.0494
127.9854 123.7602
GBPCHF **
G High G Low
1.4099 1.3629
Day High Day Low
1.4218 1.3992
1.4294 1.3934
1.4370 1.3875
1.4445 1.3816
1.4521 1.3758
GBPAUD **
G High G Low
1.5379 1.4718
Day High Day Low
1.5377 1.5187
1.5419 1.5150
1.5460 1.5113
1.5501 1.5077
1.5543 1.5040
GBPNZD
G High G Low
2.0207 1.9290
Day High Day Low
2.0082 1.9805
2.0144 1.9756
2.0207 1.9707
2.0270 1.9658
2.0333 1.9609
NDX
G High G Low
2,471.0911 2,327.2761
Day High Day Low
2,381.2773 2,318.8911
2,393.1048 2,304.5972
2,404.9324 2,290.3032
2,416.7599 2,276.0093
2,428.5874 2,261.7153
EURAUD
G High G Low
1.3366 1.2980
Day High Day Low
1.3232 1.3089
1.3268 1.3062
1.3303 1.3035
1.3338 1.3007
1.3374 1.2980
Beijing Mao Tong 08:39 GMT November 1, 2011
eurusd
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: 1.3174 Stop:
EUR Heading @ 1.3174
Syd 08:35 GMT November 1, 2011
Referendum Raises Greece Default Threat - BTMUFJ
Reply
Greek Prime Minister Papandreou's decision to put the newly agreed European bailout plan to a referendum has raised the chances of a disorderly default and increased downside risks to the euro and risky assets, according to Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi-UFJ. "Should the plans not be accepted by the Greek people, it would put the next aid tranche to Greece in jeopardy, moving it towards the brink of disorderly default," it says, adding that the outcome of a disorderly default is highly uncertain and it could raise the risk of further contagion and financial market instability.
matsudo rana 08:34 GMT November 1, 2011
eurusd
bought more avg now 1.371 iwill close once and then buy below 1.37again.
Vancouver M 08:31 GMT November 1, 2011
eurusd
Sell Trade Set-Up
Entry: Target: Stop:
thank you comrades 1.3700 goodnight...triot anothertime
Richland QC Mailman 08:31 GMT November 1, 2011
eurusd
As planned earlier, bought multiple euro long positions when euro touched 1.3677/80.
Saar KaL 08:26 GMT November 1, 2011
accumulation
EURUSD IMO
The lowest possible is 1.3610
BSB AMBUYAT JELIT 08:26 GMT November 1, 2011
eurusd
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.3656 Target: Stop:
Best Broker Forecast..
Saar KaL 08:19 GMT November 1, 2011
accumulation
Reply
Starting to accumulation
EURUSD
G High G Low
1.4498 1.3812
Day High Day Low
1.3935 1.3758
1.3969 1.3724
1.4004 1.3689
1.4038 1.3655
1.4073 1.3621
USDJPY
G High G Low
79.9167 74.5747
Day High Day Low
78.5045 77.8152
78.7576 77.6927
79.0107 77.5702
79.2638 77.4478
79.5168 77.3253
Cable
G High G Low
1.6406 1.6021
Day High Day Low
1.6153 1.6005
1.6179 1.5978
1.6206 1.5951
1.6232 1.5924
1.6258 1.5897
USDCHF
G High G Low
0.8744 0.8327
Day High Day Low
0.8845 0.8699
0.8893 0.8663
0.8940 0.8627
0.8987 0.8592
0.9035 0.8556
AUDUSD
G High G Low
1.1075 1.0494
Day High Day Low
1.0598 1.0442
1.0632 1.0407
1.0665 1.0373
1.0698 1.0338
1.0731 1.0303
USDCAD
G High G Low
1.0069 0.9732
Day High Day Low
1.0069 0.9955
1.0094 0.9935
1.0119 0.9914
1.0145 0.9894
1.0170 0.9873
Gold
G High G Low
1,837.3702 1,722.4297
Day High Day Low
1,734.5876 1,693.3733
1,742.2769 1,681.9371
1,749.9663 1,670.5009
1,757.6556 1,659.0647
1,765.3450 1,647.6285
gl and gT
Brisbane GJC 08:11 GMT November 1, 2011
Economists
Reply
I don't why economists who are wrong 80% of the time would doubt a rate cut and put publicly themselves in a position to be proved wrong.....it was obvious it was coming???
matsudo rana 08:11 GMT November 1, 2011
eurusd
added 1.3735...
Israel Dil 08:04 GMT November 1, 2011
EUR/USD
Willem Buiter on why the levered EFSF will not work
Writing in the Financial Times, Willem Buiter says that the levered EFSF is not going to work the way the Europeans intend. The increase in the firework only makes sense if the money provided came in at lower than market rates. That is simply not going to happen. The EFSF needs a loss-absorbing capacity of €2.5-3 trillion, or the ECB needs to step in. Buiters estimates that the ECB’s non-inflatoin loss absorption capacity is €3 trillion (the closest you can come to a free lunch). Buiters also said that the agreed bank recapitalisation volume is a third to a quarter of what is needed. He concludes with the following stark warning:
“The choice, sometime in 2012 or, at the latest, 2013, will be between a collapse of the euro area and large-scale quasi-fiscal abuse of the ECB.”
gl/gt
Syd 07:59 GMT November 1, 2011
fx
Reply
(Reuters) - China's big manufacturers ran at their slowest pace in October since early 2009, purchasing managers' data shows, though signs of a bounce-back at smaller firms and a sharp fall in factory-gate prices suggest no swift change to interest rates
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou risks a new euro zone crisis with his shock announcement that he will put the bailout deal struck last week to try to contain the bloc's debt mountain to a referendum of voters already angry at harsh cuts
Greek Referendum Threatens New Euro Zone Crisis
Richland QC Mailman 07:49 GMT November 1, 2011
eurusd
Ok folks, we got new fresh buying signal at 1.3765. We have taken it. Short term trade only.
Lahore FM 07:33 GMT November 1, 2011
" Trade Ideas "
Buy GBPCAD
Entry: 1.5965 Target: 1.7000 Stop: 1.5860 for half
Lahore FM 22:08:24 GMT - 10/27/2011
Buy GBPCAD
Entry: 1.5965 Target: 1.7000 Stop: 1.5800
long entry now.
last long from 1.6025 was closed in part for a gain of 140 pips net.
--
closed half at 1.6070 now for 105 +.raised sl.
will re enter this half at 1.6010 if seen.order in.
Richland QC Mailman 07:26 GMT November 1, 2011
eurusd
Hi Rana. I am not a euro bull from the very start. But I like to see 1.3680 - 1.3690 as potential buying zone.
matsudo rana 07:02 GMT November 1, 2011
eurusd
Buy EURUSD
Entry: bought Target: Stop:
ok bought @ 1.377 will add on next 1.3705....
Richland QC Mailman 06:41 GMT November 1, 2011
eurusd
Hi FM. Apologize for the delayed reply good friend. Yup I got it. I almost forgot to email you.
Vancouver M 06:34 GMT November 1, 2011
eurusd
Sell Trade Set-Up
Entry: Target: Stop:
1.38249 Pivot Point 1.37999 Current Price
0.72313 Pivot Point 0.72387 Current Price
limassol ross 06:29 GMT November 1, 2011
something is not right
Reply
AUDUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
RATE CUT AND THATS ALL THE MOVE WE HAVE SO FAR !!!
HMMM
Lahore FM 06:22 GMT November 1, 2011
eurusd
Cheers Mailman...did you read my reply to your email question?
Syd 06:20 GMT November 1, 2011
Australian Dollar Down Late As RBA Cuts Rates, Turns Dovish
Reply
The Australian dollar was sharply lower late Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates for the first time in more than two years, fine-tuning policy settings as inflation risks fade. Most economists don't expect the RBA to cut at its December policy meeting, but many warned that if conditions in Europe soured or unemployment rose locally, it may see the need for another cut. A survey of 21 economists by Dow Jones Newswires conducted late Tuesday showed all expect the RBA to hold interest rates at 4.50% in December.We think it would take a considerable deterioration in global sentiment and data to push the RBA again in December," said Su-Lin Ong, chief economist at RBC Capital Markets.
"It looks bearish, and if Italian bonds come under further pressure the Aussie won't be far behind," Scutt said. "It's clear that until we get concrete plans for the EFSF, risk will be off the table," he added.
Concerns also spread through markets on news Greece will hold a referendum on the proposed debt bailout in January. Traders said the risk it will be rejected is likely to eat into market confidence over coming months.
News China's October purchasing managers index fell to 50.4 from September's 51.2 also dented confidence. China is Australia largest trading partner, buying much of its chief exports of coal and iron ore.
Richland QC Mailman 06:17 GMT November 1, 2011
eurusd
When everybody is saying euro should be down, more, more down, it will go up. When it says it is headed to 1.4350, then it runs down the opposite.
Got High respect with those who stick to their views no matter where the price is right now. Kudos to them. Sometimes, being correct in ones trade is just a matter of time. Market can initially be adverse to your chosen position, and you can choose to do some averaging strategy. Eventually, market reverses for you, then makes you happy at the end of the day or at least save you from losing big. Or one can do a stop and reverse, something I have to learn more. Learning situations when to spot a S&R strategy is crucial in this very volatile market.
matsudo rana 05:57 GMT November 1, 2011
eurusd
Vancouver M 05:43 dear friend,i remember last year i made lots pips around 1.37/1.425 so using historical data...happy trade,
Vancouver M 05:43 GMT November 1, 2011
eurusd
Sell Trade Set-Up
Entry: Target: Stop:
matsudo rana 05:28 GMT November 1, 2011
good ? bounce of the 50 ma on daily. macdxover
Syd 05:38 GMT November 1, 2011
What does a meltdown in China's economy look like?
Reply
It starts in the property sector, the main domestic growth driver. Government controls on speculators have already started to bring residential property prices down. National average prices for residential property fell 0.23% month-to-month in October, the second month in a row of falling prices, according to data released Tuesday by the China Real Estate Index System.
If buyers who are used to prices moving only upward adopt a wait-and-see attitude, then sales volumes will fall. Sales so far this year have been robust, up 12% year-to-year in the first nine months. But it has not always been that way. In 2008, sales fell 15% year-to-year. A repeat would leave developers short of cash to cover their costs.
The most stressed developers would be forced into a fire sale of inventory, sharply lowering prices to attract buyers. In what could be a sign of things to come, prices at two new developments in Shanghai were slashed by more than 20% in October. In a competitive market, once one developer starts to lower prices everyone will be forced to follow. The result would be a write-down of asset value and profit expectations across the sector.
A fall of that magnitude in real estate investment could knock more than two percentage points off China's gross domestic product growth, expected to come in around 9% in 2011. The spillover from the slowdown in demand for construction materials, unemployment among construction workers and the hit to household wealth means the full impact could be much greater.
The financial system would not escape the consequences. Around 20% of banks' loan book is directly tied to the real-estate sector. Another 16% has been lent to local governments, which receive 40% of their revenue from land sales. Falling prices for property would knock land prices lower and increase defaults from both sources. With growth slowing and asset quality crumbling, the Chinese government would have a full-fledged crisis on its hands.
HEARD ON THE STREET
matsudo rana 05:28 GMT November 1, 2011
eurusd
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
out from all short will buy euro below 1.378 start long long long...
Israel Dil 05:27 GMT November 1, 2011
EUR/USD
EU-ECB to follow AU-RBA with interest rates cut ?
ECB chief Draghi has the GSG (Goldman Sachs gene), will that gene to get active, wild, and kicking?
The G (Greece) crisis could not start without GS (Goldman Sachs) signing sets of papers that allowed Greece to enter the eurozone.
Mr. Draghi's job at GS, was that the best paying job he ever had? is this question legitimate?
gt/gl
BLR virgoan 05:15 GMT November 1, 2011
EUR/USD
Reply
Picking up a decent chunk on every dip to bring down the average buy price. Panic selling and unwinding is seen before the event unfolds. Happy trading.
prague viktor 05:08 GMT November 1, 2011
keep selling the euro
Reply
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
IMO selling the euro is the only way to trade this pair,the fall will fast and costly for the euro bulls..the tgt is 1,25 in the 1Q 2012
G/LG/T
matsudo rana 04:48 GMT November 1, 2011
eurusd
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.37/1.3775 Target: 1.39/1.42maybe Stop: 1.365
short term cud be good buy levels 200/500pips up move possible ...this week and last week sold around 1.418 and 1.4270 stop was 1.4325 still hold hold some shorts...happy trade
Minneapolis DRS2 04:40 GMT November 1, 2011
eurusd
A couple of comments:
1. Predicting where a currency will go is a fool's game. Volatility is too great, and there are too many players who are ready to reverse on any apparent pattern.
2. Short-term currency movements are clearly news-driven. The Euro was on its way up like a rocket last week...and fell back to earth today. Who knows where it will go tonight or tomorrow.
3. To be successful, you must trade with happy feet...dance when your trade is profitable, and quickly vote with your feet when it is not. If you're a day trader or scalper, then IMHO you should get in and get out. Make as many profitable trades as you can, as quickly as you can. If you prefer to hold positions, that's fine too...but be prepared to hold them for a while.
Vancouver M 04:33 GMT November 1, 2011
eurusd
Sell Trade Set-Up
Entry: Target: Stop:
Goodmorning comrades-1.3700 next
Richland QC Mailman 04:21 GMT November 1, 2011
eurusd
Hi, good morning folks. So euro's unforgivable and fierce shot at 1.4250 last Thursday was more of a bull trap. Could be its last hurrah before the bear trend finally resumes.
We wonder what some of our good trading pals here like virgoan, fs, and kal have to say on this vicious drop to 1.3812. (Still remember many of us have almost given up hope that this pair is due for correction as it was moving the opposite of what most of us wanted. I myself was a seller at 1.4210 but had to disengage early because the price was stubborn not to leak.)
There were posts yesterday also that were to encourage "accumulation of euros". Question: With this recent price behavior, do our friends who are "euro bulls" have the same view? Is it still worth accumulating? Or is there a 360 degree turn?
Your comments highly appreciated.
Syd 03:43 GMT November 1, 2011
RBA: Starting To See Effects Of Slowing Economy In Europe
Reply
RBA: Some Time Before European Concerns Can Be Laid To Rest
Australia's RBA: Financial Conditions Easing
Australia's RBA: Overall Australian Growth Is Moderate
RBA: China's Growth Has Slowed As Policymakers Intended
RBA: Likelihood Of Acceleration In Labor Costs Has Lessened
Australia's RBA: Inflation Likely To Be Close To Target
Australia's RBA: More Neutral Policy Stance, Eye On Inflation
DJ RBA: Sees Some Moderation In Global Growth
Syd 03:30 GMT November 1, 2011
RBA
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AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) CUTS CASH TARGET RATE 25BPS TO 4.50%; AS EXPECTED
TradeTheNews.com
Lahore FM 03:27 GMT November 1, 2011
" Trade Ideas "
Sell Gold
Entry: 1718.30 Target: 1685 for half Stop: 1728
sold.oreders in for t/p and s/l.
HK RF@ 03:05 GMT November 1, 2011
Regulators Investigating MF Global
""Federal regulators have discovered that hundreds of millions of dollars in customer money have gone missing from MF Global in recent days"".
NO NEED TO MENTION: THIEVES::)))
Thievery(The action of stealing another person's property) the best and most ancient way of making money.
Syd 01:44 GMT November 1, 2011
What saves the euro will kill the union
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Angela Merkel has been saying it for some time: when the euro fails, Europe fails. The German chancellor is right, but I would add a twist: if the euro succeeds, Europe is also likely to fail. The reason is that the policies needed to solve the eurozone crisis will destroy the European Union as we know it. In particular, they will have profound implications for countries such as the UK, Sweden and Denmark. The euro was introduced on the back of two lies, which the complacent policy crowd in Brussels rarely bothered to challenge. The first, now well known, is that monetary union could exist without political integration. The second derives from it: that the EU’s euro and non-euro countries could sustainably coexist. This is the idea of the EU as a 'club of clubs'. We all share the single market, but otherwise coexist in a framework of flexible and variable geometry.
Wolfgang Münchau, Financial Times
www.businessspectator.com.au
dc CB 01:17 GMT November 1, 2011
Regulators Investigating MF Global
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Federal regulators have discovered that hundreds of millions of dollars in customer money have gone missing from MF Global in recent days, prompting an investigation into the company’s operations as it filed for bankruptcy on Monday, according to several people briefed on the matter.
The revelation of the missing money scuttled an 11th hour deal for MF Global to sell a major part of itself to a rival brokerage firm. MF Global, the powerhouse commodities brokerage run by Jon S. Corzine, had staked its survival on completing the deal.
Now, the investigation threatens to tarnish the reputation of Mr. Corzine, the former New Jersey Governor and Goldman Sachs chief who oversaw MF Global’s demise, making it the first American victim of Europe’s debt crisis.
What began as nearly $1 billion missing had dropped to less than $700 million by late Monday. It is unclear where the money went, and some money is expected to trickle in over the coming days as the firm sorts through the bankruptcy process, the people said.
But regulators are examining whether MF Global diverted some customer money to support its own trades as the firm teetered on the brink of collapse. If that was the case, it could violate a fundamental tenet of Wall Street regulation: Customers’ money must be kept separate from company money.
NYTimes
Syd 01:13 GMT November 1, 2011
AUD/USD falls to new session lows on weaker China PMI
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Aussie is resuming its s/t bearish tendencies after China's PMI came out lower than expected. While medium forecast from analyst was looking at a 51.6, the number was actually 50.4, a new 32-month low, yet still holding above the psychological 50.00 handle.
The Australian Dollar has come off highs at 1.0560 quite aggressively, marginally cracking former session lows to find support at 1.0510/15. Key support is seen at 1.0500/0490, unlikely to be broken before the key risk event of the day later on with the RBA rate decision, where analysts favour a 25bp rate cut. A break below mentioned support sees the 100-day MA around 1.0435 threatened..
Syd 00:34 GMT November 1, 2011
Australia 3Q House Price Index -1.2% Vs 2Q
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Australia 3Q House Price Index -1.2% Vs 2Q
The weighted average price of established houses in Australian capital cities fell 1.2% in the third quarter from the second quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday. The bureau's house price index also showed the weighted average price of established houses in Australia's eight capital cities was down 2.2% from the year earlier quarter of 2010. No Australian city had a quarterly increase, with Brisbane falling the sharpest at 2.5% in the third quarter
Syd 00:19 GMT November 1, 2011
Detached house sales fell by 3.3% in the month of September 2011 to be down by 15.3% over the Septem
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Australian new home sales fell 3.5% in September from August to their lowest level since December 2000, sending a powerful signal to the Reserve Bank of Australia that key parts of the economy are in need of an interest rate cut.
New homes sales in September were 14% below their level a year ago, the Housing Industry Association said.
"The September figures highlight the present soft conditions facing new home building and reinforce the importance that the RBA board calls it right today by cutting interest rates," HIA acting chief economist Andrew Harvey said in a statement.
Detached house sales fell by 3.3% in the month of September 2011 to be down by 15.3% over the September quarter, while sales of multi-units fell by 5.5% in September, the HIA said.
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