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Forex Forum Archive for 05/06/2011

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Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Hong Kong Qindex 22:50 GMT May 6, 2011
GBP/USD : Critical Point 1.6436
Reply   
GBP/USD : Critical Point 1.6436


The bias is on the downside when the market is below the critical point at 1.6436. The weekly cycle matrix system suggests that the market is going to tackle the barriers at 1.6106 - 1.6131 - 1.6170.


Qindex.com

GBP/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

dc CB 22:41 GMT May 6, 2011
COT
Reply   


Oh if you could only have seen this on Tues, when the statistic was recorded. Isn't the CFTC a wonderful organization


Eur futures

Hong Kong Qindex 22:33 GMT May 6, 2011
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3866
Reply   
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3866


The critical point system suggests that the market is going to trade within 1.3866 - 1.4496. The bias is on the downside. The weekly cycle matrix system indicates that the market is going to tackle the barriers at 1.3936 - 1.3995 - 1.4085.


Qindex.com




==============================================

Hong Kong Qindex 12:40 GMT May 6, 2011 - My Profile
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.4496: Reply
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : The next downside critical point is 1.3866.

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

dc CB 22:29 GMT May 6, 2011
Food for thought.
Reply   
Currently, Apple has contracted with Foxconn to make their iPad 2's in China, where employees are reportedly paid (after receiving a 30% raise) a king's ransom of 1,200 Yuan/month, or about $185 at current exchange rates (y/$ = 0.154), or, if we assume an average 8-hour/day, 250-day/year (probably unrealistic assumptions), $1.11/hour. But what if Apple decided to do the "patriotic" thing, and hire U.S. workers in the U.S. to make its heralded tablet? How much more would it cost to make the iPad 2 in the U.S. versus in China? Let's run some back-of-the-envelope numbers and see/

Research firm iSuppli estimates the iPad 2 costs $10 to manufacture, which - using the $1.11/hour rate - works out to about 9 hours each to complete.

How Much Would a "Made In The U.S.A" iPad2 Cost?

dc CB 22:17 GMT May 6, 2011
Greece Considers Exit from Euro Zone

ZeroHdg posted this
comment:
Link to ZH
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/official-greek-response-der-spiegel-article


Official Greek Response

Gen dk 21:37 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex Jay 21:31 GMT May 6, 2011
Greece Considers Exit from Euro Zone

Friday, May 06, 2011 5:01:58 PM
(GR) Greek Fin Min participated in ministerial meeting in Luxembourg this evening, discussed the Greek situation, no discussion of leaving the EMU - press citing Greek finance ministry
- Greek finance ministry says Greece remains committed to implementing the EU/IMF program.

TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 21:21 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   
The euro on Friday posted its biggest weekly loss against the dollar since January and further losses were seen as likely, as sovereign debt concerns reappeared after a German news report, later denied, suggested Greece had raised the possibility of leaving the euro zone.

FOREX NEWS - Euro posts worst week since January; prospects dim

GVI Forex john 20:07 GMT May 6, 2011
Global-View D.O.G. Iindex
Reply   
The Global View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) is closing in the U.S. at .5111 +0.35% from its Thursday close (-5.00% y/y).

As for its key subcomponents. the USD forex purchasing power index is .7414, +0.66% (-4.72% y/y). This index is measured against the top six trading currencies. USD purchasing power vs. gold is currently .1930, -1.65% (-4.87% y/y), and is at 0.4562, +0.55% (-6.46% y/y) against Crude oil. Index=1.00 in early 1999.

D.O.G. Homepage

GVI Forex john 19:53 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter


UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Gen dk 19:29 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 19:29 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

dc CB 19:20 GMT May 6, 2011
JPMorgan Joins Bank of America in Perfect Record for First-Quarter Trading

It will be amusing to watch all the Big Banks, that have perfect or near perfect trading records for the 1st quarter, starting publishing research reports that show the Economy Is WEAK and the Fed needs to start QE 3 ASAP to stave off the coming recession.

Coming soon the press for 6 months more $600bln moremoremoremore.

Syd 19:11 GMT May 6, 2011
Greece Considers Exit from Euro Zone
Reply   
The debt crisis in Greece has taken on a dramatic new twist. Sources with information about the government's actions have informed SPIEGEL ONLINE that Athens is considering withdrawing from the euro zone.

The common currency area's finance ministers and representatives of the European Commission are holding a secret crisis meeting in Luxembourg on Friday night.

GVI Forex Jay 19:06 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

Dil, this is why we are trying to build our Member Forums and asking for support for it. The idea is to have a place that complements the real-time forex trading forum with more in depth discussions that have a longer shelf life and can be carried on without needing an instqant response. It can be anything you want it to be but our idea is to have a place to discuss setups and scenarios in advance and come up with trading ideas.

We have made navigation easy with posts showing up as highlighted teasers so you do not have to leave the Forex Forum to check for a reply.

We think this area has great potential and would like to see member support for it.

dc CB 19:05 GMT May 6, 2011
JPMorgan Joins Bank of America in Perfect Record for First-Quarter Trading
Reply   
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), the second- largest U.S. bank by assets, joined Bank of America Corp. (BAC) in reporting a perfect trading period in the first quarter.

JPMorgan’s revenue linked to market risk was higher than $160 million on seven of the period’s 64 trading days, the New York-based lender said today in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The average daily revenue was $112 million, according to the filing.

The firm, led by Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon, 55, had $6.64 billion in sales and trading revenue in the first quarter, second only to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) among the biggest U.S. banks. JPMorgan posted perfect trading periods in three of four quarters last year.

JPMorgan Perfect Record for First-Quarter Trading

Israel Dil 19:00 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

JP

more MOM is not a reason to stop posting but the point of realizing it's scalp minded forum. I was attacked here heavily when I called to short silver above for 49 for 32 target. Not that any poster here had a reasoning to cause me to withdraw from my trading strategy, but why I need it?

good trades to all and finally it's about dumbs luck with me as the real money in this business made when the overwhelming majority is calling the opposite. Isn't luck to go against 99% of calls and make serious amounts of money?

take.care :-)

Fx Trading Discussion 18:59 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   

EURUSD Trading Plan

HK [email protected] 18:59 GMT May 6, 2011
hippies be aware, the Greek barber is to take action

PARIS bibi euro 18:41 GMT May 6, 2011

The barber paradox at last may have been solved: The Greeks shaved themselves and the whole Euro banking system, and maybe the whole world. Bad boys.

Fx Trading Discussion 18:50 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   

EURUSD Trading Plan

PARIS bibi euro 18:41 GMT May 6, 2011
hippies be aware, the Greek barber is to take action



patience pays

GVI Forex Jay 18:39 GMT May 6, 2011
Sell Order EUR/USD

TD, it was something to do with the internet pathway to the major hub we we house our servers aqnd nothiung to do with our servers. Access was restored when whatever was blocking the pathway cleared up.

Fx Trading Discussion 18:36 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   

EURUSD Trading Plan

Belgrade TD 18:34 GMT May 6, 2011
Sell Order EUR/USD

etc ...
///
... and holding Long from 1,455 ... risky one ...
///
this position was complete at 1,4490 (-60) ... overall ~+700pips ...thanks euro :) ...
I do not know about the others but some ~7-8 hours ago I had a problem logging in to GV and it lasted an hour and more, before I went to sleep ? ... anyway nice weekend to all ... GLGT

HK [email protected] 18:28 GMT May 6, 2011
EURO, GBP
Reply   
Euro signals now it will go to 1.4190 and GBP/USD to 1.6150.

JERUSALEM KB 18:16 GMT May 6, 2011
Forex Trading Plan



USDCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

another example that we can expect the next data release from technical analysis.
i personally did not enter this trade because it is below the daily middle Bollinger and i switched to its crosses and pick GBPCHF.

JERUSALEM KB 18:12 GMT May 6, 2011
Forex Trading Plan



GBPCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

we miss this trade setup after I asked to cancel any way it hit target easily and stopped on second position with small profit.
which may show that we can expect the next data release from technical analysis
-i enterd this trade directly after ress. breakout and this is a new system(i used to trade like this but with lower risk 3%). by this system we may have a better entry and tight stop with big targets( i enterd at 1.4265 with stop at 1.4220 and went out with 140pips+).

tor dr unken katt 18:07 GMT May 6, 2011
euro
Reply   


..

Lakeville BP 18:04 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

I second those kudos to GV about Greece.
I made about 30 pips on that info ...in and out.
Thank you BP

GVI Forex Blog 18:01 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   
Commodity markets slumped last week, reflecting weaker economic signals, but also we suspect ‘correcting’ from strong gains as markets focus on the end of the Fed’s QEII.

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - COMMODITY PRICE DROPS WOULD EASE MPC DILEMMA

Norfolk jmr 17:59 GMT May 6, 2011
Forex Trading Plan

Thanks KB

JERUSALEM KB 17:56 GMT May 6, 2011
Forex Trading Plan

yes jmr , next week it is highly possible to have a trade on gbpusd(this is how i work) i put one or two pairs and its crosses on mind every week and start trade it when possible next week.)

Mtl JP 17:52 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

nyc ws 17:37 - gv deserves a kudos... good job alerting the forum to the Greece headlines

Norfolk jmr 17:48 GMT May 6, 2011
Forex Trading Plan

KB, are you going to wait to see how it looks Sunday before trading the GBP/USD, if at all?

Tokyo Rana 17:43 GMT May 6, 2011
jpy

Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.4375 Target: 1.5 Stop: 50pips

lets see wat happen...

JERUSALEM KB 17:43 GMT May 6, 2011
Forex Trading Plan



GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

h4 chart show the broken channel ( support breakout).

JERUSALEM KB 17:40 GMT May 6, 2011
Forex Trading Plan



GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

The last daily candle stick closed below the middle bollinger band , the current one went up to retest it and it is highly possible to close below it.
A short trade setup using smaller time like H4 will be perfect.

Fx Trading Discussion 17:40 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   

EURUSD Trading Plan

nyc ws 17:37 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

JP perhaps some but markets rarely move like this when they get it right. Medium term positions are getting forced out. Anyone who bought eurusd over the past two weeks is under the water.

Fx Trading Discussion 17:30 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   

EURUSD Trading Plan

Mtl JP 17:28 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

a few probably awsome rich already.

we ll probably find out who over next week or two as they stop posting on the forum unlike the rest of us less fortunate

Fx Trading Discussion 17:27 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   

EURUSD Trading Plan

Tokyo Rana 17:26 GMT May 6, 2011
jpy

Buy EURJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

its was eurjpy...

GVI Forex Jay 17:25 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

GERMAN COALITION SOURCE CONFIRMS THAT THERE IS CRISIS MEETING IN LUXEMBOURG WITH SCHAEUBLE AND ASMUSSEN TAKING PART

Tokyo Rana 17:25 GMT May 6, 2011
jpy
Reply   

Entry: 115.2 Target: open Stop: 114.7

bought...happy trade,

GVI Forex Jay 17:11 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

Friday, May 06, 2011 1:10:02 PM
(GR) Greece Finance Ministry Statement further denies press speculation Greece is considering leaving EMU

TradeTheNews.com

Hillegom Purk 17:06 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

Ozmond is the laggard today... might see some action later on, but being Friday move may be over.

HK Kevin 16:54 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

It seems not much stop placed at 1.4480.
Sorry, I mean 1.4380

nyc ws 16:53 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

Except for those holding Greek debt as they would need a barber shop to give the haircuts.

FW CS 16:51 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

Kicking Greece out of the Eu may actually help the EZ and the Euro

GVI Forex Jay 16:51 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

Kevin, 1.4450 was the breakdown level.

HK Kevin 16:47 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

It seems not much stop placed at 1.4480.

nyc ws 16:47 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

Crazy.......... more the denial more the selling

Washington Hilary 16:45 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter



also bill denied he had anything with Monica

GVI Forex Jay 16:31 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

More on this soap opera:

Greek official denies report

GVI Forex Jay 16:18 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

Germany denies it as well but damage done.

- Follow Up; Germany Govt source claims there are no plans for Greece to leave the EMU

TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex john 16:08 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

- If true, the LAST thing the EU would do is admit they were going to meet!

Lakeville BP 16:08 GMT May 6, 2011
" Trade Ideas "

Thank you.
Just grabbed 12 pips on that trade.
And got stopped out cause I moved up my stop
(maybe per mature)
??? think I should jump back in??
THANKS

GVI Forex Jay 16:01 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

Friday, May 06, 2011 12:00:21 PM
(GE) EU's Juncker's spokesperson denies reports from germany press on Greece departure rumors
- Follow Up: Austria Fin Min calls a Euro zone breakup 'unthinkable.'
- France Fin Min can neither confirm or deny report from the German press on emergeny meeting on Greece.

TradeTheNews.com

Mtl JP 15:59 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

could ? lol

Greek should have defaulted a year ago ! would have been along the healing timeline by so much further along already...

but the eurocrocrats and IMF wont let him

GVI Forex john 15:59 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

- Report Greece has raised the possibility of leaving Euro and reintroducing its own currency. Der Spiegel

GVI Forex Jay 15:57 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

Greek stiry hotting the euro

GVI Forex Blog 15:55 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   
May 6 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS (high-impact item) for Monday, May 9:

GVI Forex- Data Outlook for May 9, 2011

GVI Forex Jay 15:53 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

Friday, May 06, 2011 11:52:17 AM
(GR) Greece could consider leaving the Eurozone - German press
- Eurozone Fin Mins discussing a possible debt restructuring at a highly confidential meeting in Luxembourg

TradeTheNews.com

Chicago tt 15:51 GMT May 6, 2011
eurusd
Reply   
For the bulls. You don't want to see eurusd below 1.4450 and need it to finish above 1.45..

GVI Forex john 15:51 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

CALENDAR
Entry: Target: Stop:



May 6 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS (high-impact item) for Monday, May 9:

  • Far East: JA- BOJ Minutes.
  • Europe: DE- Trade.
  • North America- No Major Data
Updated: Trading Events Calendar

GVI Forex Blog 15:47 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   
After Thursday’s ECB Governing Council meeting, the euro surrendered its gains from the previous week. EUR-USD plunged by nearly four big figures – from 1.49 to 1.45, reflecting market participants’ disappointment that the ECB, contrary to widespread expectations, had given no indication that interest rates would rise again in June.

FX Briefing - ECB: Tame hawks

Mtl JP 15:38 GMT May 6, 2011
Chinese Stocks to Drop, Growth to Slow Dramatically: Strategist

Dil 14:02 - think... of what (not who) would determine the value of money in the absence of gov't exclusive grant fiat-printing edict. since we must accept the Chinese, American, Japanese or European meddlers as, for practical purposes permament meddlers in our trading considerations since such a discussion is would currently be only academic.

only defence to the fiat and govt perma keynesian meddlers is to keep buying REAL things for the long-term.

GVI Forex Blog 15:29 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   
A better headline US nonfarm payroll number initially sent the USD higher against the major pairs but further analysis of the data proved not to be as euphoric. The tick up in the Unemployment Rate weighed against the USD's upside momentum.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update

GVI Forex Blog 14:45 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   
EUR/USD (a daily chart of which is shown) as of Friday (5/06/2011) after the Non-Farm Payrolls report has descended to hover around a confluence of support that includes the key 1.4500 support level

EUR/USD Drops to Support Confluence

BERN DS 14:33 GMT May 6, 2011
EURCHF
Reply   
Just a little holiday follow up in EURCHF... trend still very much down, resistance around 12740/50 holding for the moment, any loss on a daily closing basis below 12650 will give 12400 and 11800 pretty quickly.. guess stops have to be at 12775... great trading to all...

Israel Dil 14:21 GMT May 6, 2011
reversal, trend change or a correction ?



good weekend to all, outside or inside or even just between week closing, 1.3 is on it's way soon :-)

GVI Forex john 14:21 GMT May 6, 2011
We have a trading discussion under way on the Member Forum:

EURUSD Trading Plan

It would be nice to see some varied ideas about how to trade on its conclusions.

Israel Dil 14:19 GMT May 6, 2011
jpy

RANA

make a billion XAU ounces :-)

good luck

Israel Dil 14:17 GMT May 6, 2011
reversal, trend change or a correction ?


EUR/USD will trade around 1.3 before 1.52x
I hope that I am not wrong :-)

Tokyo Rana 14:16 GMT May 6, 2011
jpy

Israel Dil 14:07 dear friend,thank you for post...im not bullish im not bearish....im just flat doing day trade with stops 10/50pips....happy day,

Fx Trading Discussion 14:14 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   

EURUSD Trading Plan

Israel Dil 14:07 GMT May 6, 2011
jpy

RANA

before you turn too extreme bullish about jpy I suggest you to check carefully what weber and other ECB mouths said about EURJPY value around 3 years ago during the over 165 times.

Fx Trading Discussion 14:05 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   

EURUSD Trading Plan

Israel Dil 14:02 GMT May 6, 2011
Chinese Stocks to Drop, Growth to Slow Dramatically: Strategist

JP

if the Chinese will satisfy the USA with their currency then it will not be a surprise to hear that china treats the human rights of the American great :-)

Paris ib 14:01 GMT May 6, 2011
reversal, trend change or a correction ?

Thank you Dil.

Israel Dil 13:59 GMT May 6, 2011
reversal, trend change or a correction ?

IB

the ultimate surprise will be to realize that central banker said the truth.

beside that you are a living proof that a speculator ban be a fine human too :-)

Tokyo Rana 13:49 GMT May 6, 2011
jpy

out for nice 50pips plus with in hour...happy weekend to all,

Gen dk 13:48 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Tokyo Rana 13:32 GMT May 6, 2011
jpy
Reply   
Sell EURJPY
Entry: 117.3 Target: 116/115 Stop: 117.8

sold also sold eurchf...happy trade,

Paris ib 13:24 GMT May 6, 2011
reversal, trend change or a correction ?

Dil.... those evil Central Bankers !!!

And more from our friends:

Evil Central Bankers

Evil CBs II

the plot thickens.

If 'they' want to achieve a outside week down in EUR/USD 'they' are going to have to do better than that.

Fx Trading Discussion 13:24 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   

EURUSD Trading Plan

Hillegom Purk 13:23 GMT May 6, 2011
usd/chf update

Amsterdam purk 13:46 GMT April 29, 2011
usd/chf update: Reply
Closed half of 86,52 at 86,74. No doubt that i can add again, as 83 still on the radar.

_______________________
Closing last half of 86,52 at 87,34.
Keeping the 86,000 half.

Lahore FM 13:23 GMT May 6, 2011
" Trade Ideas "

Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.4480 Target: Stop: sl raised to 1.4480

thanx ib!

sl raised to entry.

Gen dk 13:20 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Paris ib 13:18 GMT May 6, 2011
" Trade Ideas "

Lahore FM 12:09:06 GMT - 05/06/2011

Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.4480 bid limit Target: Stop: 1.4450
order placed off four charts!


Top call !

GVI Forex Blog 13:14 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   
Those of you who believe in the inevitable march higher in resource prices and fall in the US dollar have to admit this trade was becoming, and may still be, too easy. Though not perfectly analogous, to me this trade is looking very much like the dart throwing that went on during the Nasdaq E-bubble. It was easy. Then, as now, dumb people (usually easily spotted because they are the loudest) have been right for a very long time. Maybe it's time for Mr. Market to do some Darwinian Winnowing. There is no magic here. I have tried to create some very plausible rationales to explain why the game could be changing. What's interesting, the reason for a big change in trend, in my little scenario, is precisely a big part of the reason why the current trend is expected to continue...let me explain...

Maybe it's time for Mr. Market to do some Darwinian Winnowing!

dc CB 13:09 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

Non farm 244,000
(subtract)
Birth/Death 175,000
McDonalds 62,000

Hong Kong Qindex 12:52 GMT May 6, 2011
USD/CHF : Current Comments
Reply   
USD/CHF : The market is now trapped within two critical points of 0.8621 and 0.8961.


Qindex.com

USD/CHF : Monthly Cycle Charts

Hong Kong Qindex 12:48 GMT May 6, 2011
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.4496

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Silver is the leading indicator. Keep an eye on it.


Qindex.com

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

GVI Forex Blog 12:44 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   
Dollar-Swiss has risen above its important Resistance in 0.8700-10 region.

FX Thoughts for the day : 06-May-2011 - 1240 GMT

Hong Kong Qindex 12:40 GMT May 6, 2011
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.4496

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : The next downside critical point is 1.3866.

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

GVI Forex john 12:38 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

Jobs much better than feared...


Click on chart for more than 10-yr history

Syd 12:31 GMT May 6, 2011
fx
Reply   
According to Australia's second biggest bank Westpac mortgage holders are now defaulting on loans at a faster pace than at the height of the global financial crisis.
Business credit is another area in which the industry will be looking for growth, with the country’s top lender, National Australia Bank’s CEO Cameron Clyne seeing “green shoots” in business banking. But there is one thing that could derail this.
"In many respects the environment couldn’t withstand an interest rate rise at the moment," Clyne told a media briefing, following release of NAB’s results.


Investor Fear Contagion
we've got more speculators in these markets, as you know r, tn ever before. in the energy complex alone, we've seen a 64% increase in speculative positions. in the ags around 20%, in the middles around 20%. speculative dollars are coming in at a blistering pace. that's one inning. there are other things out there. we need to look at high frequency traders -- what i call cheetah trader because there is so fast
if the flash crash had happened at 9:30 or 10 okay in the morning in the u.s. when the markets in europe were open, we could have seen, this could have been a lot worse. to some extent, we may have dodged a bullet last year.

we've seen an unprecedented decline in a lot of these commodities, soft agricultures, coffee, cocoa and sugar. we're talking about the crude oil market. even the precious metals market. silver was up near $50, down below $35 now or around 35 now. so i'm concerned we're going to take a look at this because there i think is more going on than just the fundamentals.

GVI Forex john 12:31 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

-- ALERT --
U.S. April Employment
Non-Farm Payrolls: + 244K vs. +190K exp. vs. +221Kr prev.
Private Payrolls: +268K vs. +200K exp. vs. +230K prev.
Unemployment: 9.0% vs. 8.8% exp. vs. 8.8% prev.


TTN: Special Offer


Mtl JP 12:25 GMT May 6, 2011
Chinese Stocks to Drop, Growth to Slow Dramatically: Strategist

China's tactics dealing with inflation

1) China punishes Unilever for price hike remarks - xinhuanet
Unilever, the world’s second-largest consumer-goods maker, will be fined 2 million yuan ($308,000) in China for telling the media about its plans to raise prices, which the government said led to hoarding.

2) re-education camp

3) ______________ (enemy of the state)

Lahore FM 12:09 GMT May 6, 2011
" Trade Ideas "

Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.4480 bid limit Target: Stop: 1.4450

order placed off four charts!

Gen dk 12:09 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong Kong Qindex 12:05 GMT May 6, 2011
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.4496
Reply   
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.4496


The bias is on the downside when the market closes below 1.4496 in the New York session.


Qindex.com

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Syd 11:55 GMT May 6, 2011
Chinese Stocks to Drop, Growth to Slow Dramatically: Strategist
Reply   
Fears of further monetary tightening in China have been weighing on the country's stock market over the last two weeks with the Shanghai Composite dropping 6 percent during that time.

One expert believes investors are in for a nasty surprise over the next 12 months and that Chinese equities will remain under pressure.

GVI Forex Jay 11:50 GMT May 6, 2011
Tech Talk - EURUSD
Reply   
11:50 GMT (Global-View.com) May 6 - It is hard to make a call after an earthquake as you have to be wary of aftershocks and this is what the forex market faces on Friday. Complicating the outlook is the US employment report, which we often refer to as “NFP roulette”.

The question is how to trade NFP? Given the move to “risk off” the bias is probably looking for a disappointing report so the surprise would be an above consensus result. The consensus is calling for NFP 200K. How the market reacts to the report will give a clue whether there is more to this retracement and general flush out as there are more key levels on the downside than the upside. This week saw a change with weak data helping the dollar as the market moved from a risk on to risk off bias.

Going by the charts, a key focus today will be on

1.4492 = last week’s low; close below it would produce an outside week key reversal
1.4454 = 61.8% of 1.4155-1.4939
1.4393 = daily trendline
1.4294 = major monthly downtrendline broken last month.<>

Upside is harder to define given the straight line down yesterday.

In this regard, 1.45 may be most important in dictating what comes next. Watch 1.4550-00 as it needs to be renewed to ease the risk from 1.45 (and below?).

Jay Meisler, co-founder
Global-View.com

GVI Forex john 11:47 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter

EARLIER


-- ALERT --
German March Industrial Output
+0.7% vs. +0.5% exp. vs. +1.7%r prev.


TTN: Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 11:46 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   
The euro steadied against the dollar on Friday after steep losses the previous day, helped by sovereign demand and with investors concerned a weak U.S. jobs report could weigh on the greenback.

FOREX NEWS - Euro steady, seen hemmed in before U.S. jobs data

GVI Forex john 11:45 GMT May 6, 2011
Internet Outage
Reply   
Internet outage. We don't know the details, but there was a nearly two hour internet outage blocking access to our hub. It appears to have been resolved.

GVI Forex Blog 11:43 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   
The price action was unusually choppy ahead of the US payroll report. The EUR/USD moved somewhat aggressively higher towards 1.46 handle after ECB's Nowotny commented that the markets definitely over interpreted the Trichet press conference from yesterday and added that there should be no idea about ECB being dovish. However, lower commodity process particularly CTA deleveraging of crude contracts provide a reprieve for the greenback.

TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Crude slumps further in session on continued de-leveraging; Precious metals rebound a bit from their slide

GVI Forex john 11:40 GMT May 6, 2011
Market Chatter



EARLIER...

-- ALERT --
CA- April Employment
Jobs: +58.3K vs. +22.5K exp. vs. -1.5K prev.
Rate: 7.6% vs. 7.7% exp. vs. 7.7% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer


Canada jobs

Saar KaL 10:00 GMT May 6, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

EURUSD 1.4450 is very dangerous
below it with cold moves
might make the euro move volitile south bound
I think most likely not
I think will be volatile north
towards 1.50 area
on the otherhand if you pull longer term charts
the view of that is with it's last 2 highs
seems just not worth it
better to wait for 1.50
sits there for a while
then the drop for 1.27

GVI Forex john 09:57 GMT May 6, 2011
Global-View D.O.G. Iindex
Reply   
The Global View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) is opening in the U.S. at .5085 -0.17% from its Thursday close (- 5.49% y/y).

As for its key subcomponents. the USD forex purchasing power index is .7364, -0.03% (-5.37% y/y). This index is measured against the top six trading currencies. USD purchasing power vs. gold is currently .1939, -1.21% (-4.45% y/y), and is at 0.4539, +0.05% (-6.93% y/y) against Crude oil. Index=1.00 in early 1999.

D.O.G. Homepage

Israel Dil 09:44 GMT May 6, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

kal

new highs with oil likely not to happen this year. IMO

GVI Forex Blog 09:35 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   
Focus today is on the April U.S. jobs data. A gain of about +200K is forecast, but the surprise outcome would be an above consensus outcome. The ECB decision Thursday was in line with the consensus forecast. The problem was that the markets were heavily overextended in the EUR, oil, Gold, silver etc, and margin calls triggered a cascade of liquidations.

Daily Forex View-10:00 GMT- 6 May 11 North America-Europe

Saar KaL 09:34 GMT May 6, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

would like to buy oil with dips
i think 92 to 94
for tgt 121??
sounds like someone here thinking the same?

HK [email protected] 09:28 GMT May 6, 2011
DJ Rattled Forex Traders Fear Market Rout

That means good chances for 50% Ret for today.

If so happens 1.4750 may be close rate for the Euro close.
A close above 1.08 for AUD will be a good sign for return of the bull trend.

Gen dk 09:23 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Syd 09:18 GMT May 6, 2011
DJ Rattled Forex Traders Fear Market Rout
Reply   
LONDON (Dow Jones)--A nervous tone persists in the currencies market Friday after a huge drop in the euro and a shake-out in commodities-related currencies Thursday left analysts and investors fearing a hefty crash.
So far Friday, the market is showing few signs of even a tentative recovery from the broad-based drubbing.
The euro has been held under pressure throughout early European trading hours, and it now hovers close to the lows against the dollar that it reached after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet Thursday disappointed those expecting another interest-rate rise in June, just above $1.45. That is some four cents below its high Thursday, representing the common currency's biggest one-day drop since at least the beginning of the year.
"[The drop in risky currencies] could just be a flush-out, but it could be more than that. The data is looking soggy, and even the China data has been moderating--not alarmingly--but it seems that the tightening is working, and if you put it all together, it raises eyebrows," said Paul Mackel, senior currency strategist at HSBC. "People are getting nervous," he added. The initial trigger for this pullback came from a drop in the price of silver, which tumbled 8% Thursday, the biggest one-day percentage drop for the metal since Dec. 1, 2008.
That dragged down currencies linked to commodities exports, spreading to oil-related currencies as the commodities drop extended. The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar all dropped sharply, with the euro falling 2.6% against the dollar Thursday. The Norwegian krone and the Russian ruble, which are both closely tied to the fortunes of the oil market, also came under heavy selling pressure.
"These events came as a perfect storm for risk trades which had been characterized by a positive correlation between equities, commodities and the euro, where investors arguably held extended long positions to start with," said Lena Komileva, chief G-10 currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in London.
Spooked currency traders now fear that Thursday's sharp selloff could become more than a correction and morph into a full scale reversal.
"This was a warning shot across the bows...People are going to be wary. When everything is correlated, you can't get your risk down, and the result is that you take smaller bets," said Kit Juckes, chief currency strategist at Societe Generale.

Belgrade TD 09:14 GMT May 6, 2011
Markettalk

[Dow Jones] Gilts are stable despite UK PPI data printing above market expectations. April output PPI rose 0.8% from March vs expectations for a 0.7% rise, while input PPI was up 2.6% from a month earlier vs expectations for an increase of 2.1%. June gilts are up 0.05 at 120.22

Syd 09:13 GMT May 6, 2011
EUR/USD Needs To Hold Above 1.4415 -Commerzbank
Reply   
EUR/USD is on the defensive after breaching support at 1.4750 notes Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones. Now at 1.4530 she says the spot needs to hold above 4-month channel support at 1.4415, otherwise downside risks open toward the April 18 low of 1.4145.

Saar KaL 09:12 GMT May 6, 2011
KaL's Trend and Level

EURCHF Longs for a while Seems OK
IMO heading to 1.31ish again
Longing at 1.2656
s/l at 1.2638
tgt 1.2760

Israel Dil 08:36 GMT May 6, 2011
SILVER


major factor for some bounce with silver is the complete silence from the silver pimps. looks like many of those who knew all are currently wiped off trading accounts.

Belgrade TD 08:34 GMT May 6, 2011
Sell Order EUR/USD

Sell Order EUR/USD : Reply
Belgrade TD 15:39 GMT May 5, 2011
etc ... still holding 1,4880 Short
///
temporary open one Long at 1.455 ... Short-term or am flat now
///
Closed last Short side at 1,4520 (+360) ... and holding Long from 1,455 ... still need time to decide where to set stop/target cause its partially hedged with my USDCAD Long .. risky one ...

Syd 08:33 GMT May 6, 2011
WSJ: Nowotny: Not Worried About Current Euro Level
Reply   
WSJ: Nowotny: As Economy Normalizes, ECB Stance Needs To Adjust
WSJ: Nowotny: ECB Wants More Time To Assess Inflation Outlook
GBP/USD's close below 1.64 support Thursday suggests risks of a deeper pullback toward 1.6260 and 1.6165 before signs of a base start to appear, says Barclays Capital. Now at 1.6367, the bank says bearish pressure will remain in the absence of a daily close back above 1.66

Syd 08:29 GMT May 6, 2011
Crude Plummets As European Traders Join Selloff
Reply   
Selling momentum in crude picks up on heavy volumes as European traders begin liquidating their positions; "European traders are throwing away their positions, because they couldn't do it yesterday" a Tokyo-based trader says; he adds both ICE Brent and Nymex have broken through key technical supports; the next support level for Nymex is around $95/bbl and for ICE Brent around $105/bbl after it busted through a strong level at $107/bbl. He says the selloff could continue until most European traders can close their positions; he expects deeper losses from current levels but says the market could recover towards the end of the day in New York. Nymex June crude is down $4.84 at $94.96/bbl; June Brent is down $5.08 at $105.72/bbl, off a session low of $105.15/bbl.

Israel Dil 08:24 GMT May 6, 2011
SILVER
Reply   

$32 may act as support and bounce level for now. but calling so is risky at least as the $50 no touch which came out well as truth.

$25-$42 range for the rest of 2011 is what I see for now. but can be dead wrong :-)

Israel Dil 07:42 GMT May 6, 2011
reversal, trend change or a correction ?
Reply   

is it really matters how they call or define it?

mr. Lie, mrs. Lies and ms. Cheat all working for central banks around the globe. they call to execute orders behalf of the central bank, and not too long after that they call with opposite orders behalf their private account. at least most of times.

Argentine’s central bank governor Mario Blejer, meanwhile, calls the European financial rescue stragtegy a Ponzi scheme.

silver is so fun because there are no central bankers involved :-)


Belgrade TD 07:29 GMT May 6, 2011
testing

Belgrade TD 22:39 GMT May 5, 2011
just testing with small long on NZD/USD at 0,787 ...
///
closed with TrailingStop ~BE

Tokyo Rana 07:25 GMT May 6, 2011
jpy
Reply   
Sell GBPCHF
Entry: 1.4275 Target: 1.41/1.40 Stop: 50pips

sold...sad bcoz twice stoped audusd yesterday.... happy trade,

Saar KaL 07:24 GMT May 6, 2011
what a week

USDCAD a sell for sure
Sold mkt
no stop yet
tgt new low

Syd 07:05 GMT May 6, 2011
April ADP Jobs Report Understating Jobs Growth
Reply   
Patrick O’Keefe, director of economic research at J.H. Cohn expects 200,000 jobs were added to the U.S. economy in April.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=1911300692

Belgrade TD 07:01 GMT May 6, 2011
Markettalk
Reply   
[Dow Jones] Bund futures jumped Thursday, and are still posting gains Friday, a typical sign of capital flight to safe harbors, after commodity prices drop sharply, traders say. "There is a clear retreating-from-risk trend," one trader says. There is too much hot money in all markets that can be yanked from the table, he adds, and the trend will also pressure stocks. Raw material, energy and financial stocks slipped into the red in the U.S. and Asia, paving the way for a similar trend in Europe. In Germany, the DAX will be propped by strong 1Q BASF earnings.

Syd 06:50 GMT May 6, 2011
WSJ BLOG/China Real Time: Is the Chinese Listing Bubble Going Bust?
Reply   
Suddenly the boom in Chinese listings on U.S. exchanges is looking shaky, and two primary reasons were reinforced in separate developments today. On Wall Street, Renren, dubbed the Chinese Facebook, tanked after its shares debuted at a stratospheric multiple on Wednesday, calling into question the appetite for future Chinese IPOs. Meanwhile, at a New York City financial conference, SEC officials were nearly elbowing each other out of the way to express their concerns about reverse mergers that are allowing Chinese firms to back door their way into U.S. markets.

Concerns over Chinese companies are widespread at the SEC. At an accounting conference at Baruch College in New York on Thursday, no fewer than three SEC officials brought up the agency's investigation into foreign companies going public on U.S. markets by merging with public shell companies, a so-called reverse merger.

WSJ BLOG

Syd 06:34 GMT May 6, 2011
UK’s John Lewis says weekly department store sales down 9.2%
Reply   
UK’s John Lewis says weekly department store sales down 9.2%

Belgrade TD 06:33 GMT May 6, 2011
MOST MANIPULATED MARKETS IN HISTORY

lets see what London has to say ... funny but i got a sell signal on $DX almost 3h ago ... but this is a period of calm and I just ignore it ...

Saar KaL 06:33 GMT May 6, 2011
what a week

GBPCAD Seem on a dive mode
to possible 1.5470

hk ooozmeeh 06:27 GMT May 6, 2011
MOST MANIPULATED MARKETS IN HISTORY

they were saying that Silver's rise was parabolic and could drop and they were right...now how would they picture out this 4 day drop, maybe super ultra mega parabolic(inverted), LOOOL

Belgrade TD 06:20 GMT May 6, 2011
MOST MANIPULATED MARKETS IN HISTORY

haha, it would be very interesting if EUR create a new high today ... anything is possible :)

Hong Kong Qindex 06:17 GMT May 6, 2011
Silver : Current Comments

Quito Valdez 02:44 GMT May 6


Hi, all those numbers are from my trading system.



Qindex.com

Silver : Monthly Cycle Charts

hk ooozmeeh 06:06 GMT May 6, 2011
MOST MANIPULATED MARKETS IN HISTORY

after 2, 3, 4 days of drop, market commentators will say this , will say that...but the reality is it was George Soros who strated it early Monday trade, but we cant blame the man, like all of us he just wanted to take his profits...

Belgrade TD 06:05 GMT May 6, 2011
Commodities Correction

usually everything is so logical but after ... lol

hk ooozmeeh 05:58 GMT May 6, 2011
MOST MANIPULATED MARKETS IN HISTORY

kidding aside, it is therefore concluded that the usd does not need Bernanke, it only takes George Soros to do the job LOOOOOOL

Syd 05:53 GMT May 6, 2011
Commodities Correction
Reply   
Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Services explains why the recent sell-off in commodities is a good thing.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=1911374627

Currency Effect
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000020435


Brutal Sell-Off in Commodities
Michael Yoshikami, founder and CEO of YCMNET Advisors and Daryl Guppy, CEO of Guppytraders.com make sense of Thursday's massive sell-off in commodities.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=1911279538

GVI Forex Blog 05:38 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   
***Economic Data*** - (AU) RBA QUARTERLY STATEMENT ON MONETARY POLICY: Further tightening of monetary policy is likely required at some point; Q1 GDP may decline before recovering in Q2-Q3 - (JP

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Cautious markets ahead of payrolls, Australia construction index hits 2-year low and the RBA hints at further tightening in the future

Saar KaL 05:26 GMT May 6, 2011
what a week
Reply   
what a day and a week
I guess when people under estimated the bigger waves this is what happens
Broke even for the week


EURUSD Seems Like Bullish from 1.4430 area
Unless get very volatile

1.4430 with a stop at 1.4350 target another new high seems OK

USDJPY seems Bullish for 85.2
again one never knows
84.2 today Seems OK to Long to 84.78
Might be on way to 92


cable will risk some longs today from 1.6320
stop at 1.6278
tgt 1.6730

Gold
will go Long term trade from 1385 tgt new high (1600)
silver from 32 tgt 52 +

Mtl JP 05:26 GMT May 6, 2011
MOST MANIPULATED MARKETS IN HISTORY

dc CB 03:13 - like fiat money, it is an issue only if one daytrades.

Instead of whinning about the dollar, or fiat or market insiders - not that they dont have merit mind you - suggest one can make a decent income from playing things that have REAL value. And it ain`t going to be holding onto us dollars.

Playing long term accumulate on dips such REAL things that people NEED such as oil and staple commodities and including Gold are wealth-growing opportunities going forward.

Bring on another two trillion to add to the us govt deficit !
Bring on another QE3 !! And another !!! And anot...





Syd 05:23 GMT May 6, 2011
Talking Numbers: Profit Taking or Bubble Popping?
Reply   
Talking Numbers: Profit Taking or Bubble Popping?
dangerous to view it as an overdue bull market correction and you’ll be okay if you can sit it out. in fact, maybe scale down buy. that’s absolutely the wrong strategy, because it’s been our perspective on this this entire move up in silver, in crude oil, in the commodity, in the crb index, since the march lows has been entirely a function of the weaker dollar. this has been a fed monetary policy induced bubble. the attempt being to create the wealth effect. drive prices higher
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000017354

hk ooozmeeh 05:19 GMT May 6, 2011
Is This Gold Correction over?
Reply   


based on my chart, it "could possibly" be over...gt gl

arizona 04:20 GMT May 6, 2011
GBP/USD

i think asia can quit only if they go bankrupt themselve.

GVI Forex Blog 04:08 GMT May 6, 2011 Reply   
Crash in all markets yesterday - precious metals, stocks, commodities, currencies.

Morning Briefing : 06-May-2011 -0400 GMT

Syd 04:00 GMT May 6, 2011
Hot Money Fuelled Copper Now Bursting - Novus
Reply   
The bull market in copper and other commodities over the past 12 months has been fuelled by inflows of speculative money that are now quitting the market, says Gary Glover, senior client adviser at Novus Capital in Sydney. "It's clearly a bubble and it's starting to burst now. People are saying that they'll consolidate or trade sideways but look at the inherent nature of commodities--they don't do that, they move up and down," he says. "The last correction in copper (in 2008) went from about $9,000/ton to $3,000/ton in six months. I could see us having that type of move." 3-month copper looks to be finding some resistance around $8,880/ton after moving up a fairly modest 1.0% in the first two hours; heavy buying interest started with SHFE's 0100 GMT open, with 1,837 lots changing hands, although benchmark July copper in Shanghai was down 1.9%, or CNY1,220, at CNY65,920/ton at 0305 GMT, equivalent to $8,421/ton including import duties

Syd 03:25 GMT May 6, 2011
Al Qaeda Warned of 'Breakfast With Navy Seals': Hutchinson
Reply   
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42894035

dc CB 03:13 GMT May 6, 2011
MOST MANIPULATED MARKETS IN HISTORY
Reply   
Many have been worried about the integrity of markets as third party insiders (Fed, Treasury, Exchanges, Trading Desks and etc) have manipulated conditions their way. It’s nothing new but it seems extreme currently. A series of circumstances exist where third parties are hiding in plain sight boldly manipulating markets.

A series of events has taken markets down, some fundamental and others engineered.

link

Syd 03:03 GMT May 6, 2011
Japan FX Intervention Not Yet In Sight - BarCap
Reply   
Conditions that would prompt Japan intervention to push down the JPY are not yet in place, therefore, "in terms of USD/JPY, the main driver will remain relative US-Japanese interest rates," says Barclays Capital. The house says that intervention by Japan would be difficult to justify to G-7 partners since the JPY's strength is mainly against the USD, with its trade weighted index well below levels reached in March. It notes that Finance Minister Noda said Thursday, the yen's current situation differs from that time when Japan and other major economies undertook coordinated intervention. BarCap adds, authorities will also wait until they see a sharp reversal in Tokyo shares.

Money managers and other speculators could be behind the rapid decline in crude-oil prices this week, says Yingxi Yu of Barclays Capital; "if you look at the net fund length on Nymex WTI, you can see that speculative net length as a percentage has been relatively elevated and has remained near historical highs." Oil prices are being driven by sentiment, and when sentiment turns, it's not impossible for prices to fall "quite a long way in a very short term, especially when fear starts to take over the market," she adds. "I wouldn't rule out the possibility that managed money is behind the move." June Nymex crude is up 76 cents at $100.56 a barrel on Globex.

Syd 03:02 GMT May 6, 2011
Japan FX Intervention Not Yet In Sight - BarCap
Reply   
Conditions that would prompt Japan intervention to push down the JPY are not yet in place, therefore, "in terms of USD/JPY, the main driver will remain relative US-Japanese interest rates," says Barclays Capital. The house says that intervention by Japan would be difficult to justify to G-7 partners since the JPY's strength is mainly against the USD, with its trade weighted index well below levels reached in March. It notes that Finance Minister Noda said Thursday, the yen's current situation differs from that time when Japan and other major economies undertook coordinated intervention. BarCap adds, authorities will also wait until they see a sharp reversal in Tokyo shares.

Money managers and other speculators could be behind the rapid decline in crude-oil prices this week, says Yingxi Yu of Barclays Capital; "if you look at the net fund length on Nymex WTI, you can see that speculative net length as a percentage has been relatively elevated and has remained near historical highs." Oil prices are being driven by sentiment, and when sentiment turns, it's not impossible for prices to fall "quite a long way in a very short term, especially when fear starts to take over the market," she adds. "I wouldn't rule out the possibility that managed money is behind the move." June Nymex crude is up 76 cents at $100.56 a barrel on Globex.

Belgrade TD 03:01 GMT May 6, 2011
GBP/USD

Quito Valdez
I completely agree with you ... many people forget that the ECB is not FED or BOE or BOJ ... The EU is a community of states, not a confederation or a federation ... ECB may decide only if ALL members are FOR or all AGAINST ... No outvoting or majority ... and we know that Germany and Romania are not the same nor have the same interests .. I said same back in March/April ... but the hot news was FED and mania buying gold and silver ... but that dream has an end (sell in May) ... we'll see what those who move the market think about everything or how they think to make more money in this chaos ...

Syd 02:48 GMT May 6, 2011
Rates held as UK suffers biggest drop in growth since Lehman failed
Reply   
Bank of England holds interest rates as UK economy suffers biggest drop in growth since Lehman collapse
Britain has suffered its sharpest fall in growth since the collapse of Lehman Brothers amid mounting evidence that the recovery is stalling in the face of tough fiscal austerity.

Daiwa Capital Markets has also moved its projection back by six months, from August to "the first quarter next year", UK economist Hetal Mehta said.

Quito Valdez 02:44 GMT May 6, 2011
Silver : Current Comments

Honored Dr Q, thank you as always for your free and precious insights. You contribute gems.

Are you basing your assessment of AG on fundamentals or on charting only? Please respond. I think I'm only one of many who wants to know. chuck

Quito Valdez 02:41 GMT May 6, 2011
GBP/USD

I'm going to sleep, busy day in concrete dust. Getting too old to supervise construction in the sun. A whisky was welcome an hour ago. In closing I think it's funny as hades that all the pundits were SO sure Tritchey boy was gonna hike and he didn't. He never said he would..all this fooling around trying to find a scrap of information in his mealy mouthed words backfired on the pundits. Ha ha friggin' ha. More random events these days with absolutely no warning than Heinz has pickles.

Quito Valdez 02:38 GMT May 6, 2011
GBP/USD

Arizona, I wasn't trying to say anything, just said what I said. The implication you could pick out of it may be "OK, USA, we bought your debt, thanks for fixing the craters and buying our stuff. Now that we don't need you anymore, adios." I think that will happen, not soon. The question is when will countries stop buying US debt? Since the USA operates mainly on debt (QE, wars, NASA, security etc.) if you remove debt buying USA tanks the next day. So if Asia wants to just say "quits", they won't by any more US debt. The key word is "if". A worry is "when".

Hong Kong Qindex 02:30 GMT May 6, 2011
Silver : Current Comments
Reply   
Silver : The market is likely to consolidate within 33.706 - 35.292 - 36.089 for the time being. A projected resistant barrier has been established at 40.489 // 42.802.


Qindex.com


==============================================

Hong Kong Qindex 00:21 GMT May 2, 2011
Silver : Critical Point 40.053: Reply
Silver : Weekly Cycle Analysis


Normal Lower Limits : 40.489 - 45.841 - 47.119


Neutral Range : 39.268 - 49.427


Critical Point : 40.053


Remarks : The market is going to consolidate within the weekly cycle normal lower limits at 40.489 - 45.841 - 47.119. It is likely that the market will tackle the supporting barrier at 39.268 // 41.232 later this week. Sell on rallies is the preferred trading strategy.


Qindex.com

Silver : Monthly Cycle Charts

Silver : Monthly Cycle Charts

arizona 02:19 GMT May 6, 2011
GBP/USD

Valdez, are you trying to say that USA will buy their debt back once printing of money would be enough to make it painless.

Quito Valdez 02:10 GMT May 6, 2011
GBP/USD

Arizona, the Chinese wanted USD so they could peg CNY to it so to speak, if USD dips CNY dips, that's the theory, to protect their largest market, USA.

Also, please remember y'all, at the end of WWII, the USA went to funding rebuilds of countries bombed to smitherines such as Germany. Asia needed a market. It all came together ..."You buy our debt, we fix your craters and we buy your stuff too." Hence $3.75 gasoline. In Ecuador, oil is pumped and put into a state refinery, gasoline costs us for regular $1.42/US gallon. Ecuador made no deals with anyone. I sorta like that. I like also the idea that the oil belongs to the people, not to Texaco or Exxon or BP or anyone else. We lease oil lands, outsiders do not own a speck of oil bearing anything.

Syd 02:09 GMT May 6, 2011
*DJ Australia Market Now Fully Priced For 25 Bps RBA Hike By Year End After Statement
Reply   
*DJ Australia Market Now Fully Priced For 25 Bps RBA Hike By Year End After Statement

HK [email protected] 02:05 GMT May 6, 2011
Seems like
Reply   
Seems like the Mkt will not give any significance to the numbers coming out of the US.

The Motto: Absolutely No Trust!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

For good or for bad do we part :)))

shanghai bc 01:59 GMT May 6, 2011
EUR/USD


Very weird for a CBer from Thailand to make a statement like that..No CB in the world has any plan to pay back any debt of their own..They simply socialize the debts on national scale or internationalize the debts if they can..That is the essence of any CB in the world..Central banking is all about socializing or internationalizing money and debt..It is all about other people's money..

Syd 01:57 GMT May 6, 2011
Construction activity falls for eleventh straight month in April - study
Reply   
AUSTRALIAN construction activity fell in April for the 11th consecutive month, a report says.
The Australian Industry Group-Housing Industry Association's performance of construction index (PCI) fell 1.5 index points to 37.9 points in April, its lowest level in more than two years.
A reading below 50 points indicates contraction in activity.
The last time construction activity expanded in Australia was in May, 2010. "Weak levels of new work, strong competition to secure contracts and caution amongst investors contributed to the poor reading," said the report, published on Friday. All four of the construction industry sub-sectors experienced a contraction in activity, with houses posting the largest fall, down 2.3 points to 38.4 points. Australian Industry Group director of public policy, Peter Burn, said the weak construction sector will be vulnerable to any increases in interest rates. "Ongoing business and household caution remains an impediment to sustained recovery both in the residential construction sectors and in commercial construction," Dr Burn said in a statement. "The outlook across the four sub-sectors remains poor with new orders continuing to fall in each sub-sector." The new orders sub-index was down 1.6 points at 37.8 and the employment fell 0.3 to 38.8. Housing Industry Association (HIA) chief economist, Harley Dale, said the weakness in residential construction highlighted the need for interest rates to be kept on hold. "The housing components of the Australian PCI support HIA's forecast for a substantial reduction in new home building activity in 2011, which would be a most unfortunate outcome given Australia's acute shortage of housing stock," Dr Dale said.

The Queensland government is set to offer public servants golden handshakes of up to 90 weeks' pay in an effort to cut 3500 jobs.The plan is expected to cost $250 million over three years, The Courier Mail reports.
AAP



arizona 01:39 GMT May 6, 2011
GBP/USD

if USD will dive deep, noone can be blamed by chinese except themselve. i assume they knew what they were doing when borrowing.

Belgrade TD 01:36 GMT May 6, 2011
EUR/USD



This is a modification of RSI (subchart) with additional elements, but the principle is the same, with a little more confidence than just RSI ... We are at the bottom of Regression Channel (main chart) and in indicator (subchart green) we are on the important trend line. Anyway the main trend line (yellow in subchart) is still far away but penetration through the green trend line will activated the opportunity to be the next target - it is my goal to below ~1.40.
But any trend line of this length does not penetrate so easily and so I went to a flat position until this is resolved ... Also we need to go under the previous indicators low (white horiz. line) to confirm the further decline ... None of this has happened ... at least not yet ...

HK [email protected] 01:28 GMT May 6, 2011
GBP/USD
Reply   
In the case of GBP/USD, daily RSI has given us a temporary signal for a possible bounce, by dipping and emerging above the 50 level.
The signal will gain more credibility, if the price will rise above 1.6470.

Anyway, if that Thai CB official claimed the Americans do not plan to pay their debt, think what the Chinese have in their mind.
Chinese officials are more polite, but they may do what is needed to protect their country wealth. So don't be surprised if some big players begin accumulation on this pullback.

Quito Valdez 01:22 GMT May 6, 2011
silver in seesaw effect
Reply   
It was posted below that the selloff of precious metals was in Yen and USD. Has anyone considered a central bank(s) selling off that much to tank the metals especially XAG to fund hard times, like a reserve conversion to cash?

So that is where the double whammy is for xag...dollar up while silver sells and buys USD creating a seesaw effect.

I only put in one small trade today with all the heekack, Tritchet's surprise etc. (the man is a mealy mouthed explative) and that was long USD/JPY, a puny trade at that. This market is random because of random surprises and events. Almost thinking to forgo FX until it straightens out...too much time taken and too much confusion for this boy. There are some who can trade in this stuff but I sure can't.

HK [email protected] 01:10 GMT May 6, 2011
EUR/USD

.
The point to make that the longer the time frame the indicator may be more important. In the present case we refer to the daily chart.

Anyone may read this.
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/03/070203.asp

It is important to recognize that many traders view the RSI value of 50 to be a support and resistance benchmark. If an issue has a difficult time breaking through the 50-value level, the resistance may be too high at that particular time, and the price action may fall off again until there is enough volume to break through and continue on to new levels. An issue falling in price may find support at the 50 value and bounce off this level again to continue an upward rise in price action.

GVI Forex Jay 00:54 GMT May 6, 2011
EUR/USD

Note last correction held that area - what I love about our site is there is always something new to learn - tks RF

dc CB 00:53 GMT May 6, 2011
THE POWERS THAT BE SLAM SILVER



this is what a "correction" looks like. If the Dollar rallies, then money placed here will be "worth" more. Just speculating. In the wonderfull world of rigged markets. Don' fight the Fed.

The other stuff is just a reminder that your money should go here.
At least thu the elections in 2012. Don't despair QE3 is coming:) FREE MONEY - just don't put it into commods....it makes us look bad. You will be punished :))))))

HK [email protected] 00:46 GMT May 6, 2011
EUR/USD

GVI Forex Jay 00:26 GMT May 6, 2011

That is exactly the chart to refer to, but as your chart has OB/OS lines which are not always meaningful, the RSI=50 is the most important and should be presented too.

In fact an old research , showed that the cross(or bounce from) of the 50 line, is the most reliable signal one can get from the RSI.
Others like OB/OS and Div. may work but less often.

Vancouver T 00:40 GMT May 6, 2011
Oil crashes 10 percent in record rout

TECH TALK
Entry: Target: Stop:

( Taipan Publishing Group )

Oil collapsed into $200 Oil and the Hole That Could Swallow Mexico!

http://www.themillionairecircle.com/tpg/taipan-daily/Daily_050808a.html

HK [email protected] 00:39 GMT May 6, 2011
EUR/USD

Belgrade TD 00:11 GMT May 6, 2011

Definitely later today.

Just don't forget that Thailand CB official, which stated that the Americans are not planning to pay their debt(or just monetize it).

Short of calling them thieves:)

Hong Kong 00:34 GMT May 6, 2011
Daily FX Market Outlook by AceTrader-6-5-2011
Reply   
Market Review - 05/05/2011 20:26 GMT

Euro tumbles sharply as ECB's Trichet signals ECB will not raise rates in June

The single currency tanked broadly on Thursday after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet surprised the market by stating clearly at the press conference after the central bank kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged at 1.25% that the European Central Bank would not raise interest rates at the June meeting.

Trichet was also quoted as saying that 'current monetary policy is very accommodative; underlying pace of monetary expansion remains moderate; rates remain low; inflation likely to stay clearly above 2% on coming months; inflation expectations must remain firmly anchored; can hike rates as appropriate'.

Despite staging a strong rebound from Asian low of 1.4807 to an intra-day high of 1.4900 in European morning following the selloff from a 17-month high of 1.4940 in the previous session, the euro fell sharply to 1.4818 after the release of much worse-than-expected German industrial order data. Later, the single currency plunged sharply to 1.4577 in New York morning as Trichet's comments were less hawkish than the market had anticipated and price remained under heavy selling pressure in New York afternoon session, the single currency eventually dropped to an intra-day low of 1.4510 before stabilising in late New York trading. Eur/jpy, eur/gbp, and eur/chf tumbled from 119.76 to 116.15, from 0.9043 to 0.8865 and from 1.2796 to 1.2630 respectively.

German industrial order fell unexpectedly by -4.0% in March versus the economists' forecast of 0.1% with downwardly revised reading of 1.9% in February.

The British pound also weakened against the dollar in another volatile trading session. Despite falling sharply from Asian high of 1.6544 to 1.6446 after the release of much weaker-than-expected U.K. CIPS services PMI data which came in at 54.3 versus economists' forecast of 55.7, cable managed to recover in European midday. However, intra-day selloff in euro dragged the pound lower and price pierced through said support easily in New York morning to as low as 1.6405 in New York midday. Later, another wave of selling interest emerged in late New York session and cable eventually fell to an intra-day low of 1.6357 before staging a recovery.

Bank of England (BOE) kept key interest rates unchanged at 0.5% as expected and maintained its asset purchase target at 200 billion pounds.

The Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar, known as three commodity-linked currencies, tumbled against the greenback as oil and precious metal prices sank. U.S. crude oil price tanked 8.6% and closed below $100 per barrel as U.S. weekly jobless claims last week jumped to an eight-month high, fanning worries about the strength of the global economic recovery. Spot gold price tumbled from $1521.30/oz to $1464.30/oz while spot silver price continued to nose dive from $39.77/oz to as low as $34.37/oz. Aud/usd and nzd/usd tanked from 1.0771 to 1.0537 and from 0.7943 to 0.7816 respectively while usd/cad rallied from 0.9568 to 0.9713.

U.S. weekly jobless claims came in at 474,000 versus the economists' forecast of 410,000.

Data to be released on Friday include:

Swiss unemployment rate; U.K. input and output PPI; German industrial production; Canadian employment change and unemployment rate; U.S. average hourly earnings, non-farm payrolls, private payrolls and unemployment rate.

http://www.acetraderfx.com

GVI Forex Jay 00:26 GMT May 6, 2011
EUR/USD



RF, interesting on the RSI. See daily chart.

Belgrade TD 00:11 GMT May 6, 2011
EUR/USD

HK [email protected] 23:53 GMT May 5, 2011
this is one of the possible scenarios ... Today we probably have the answer :)

 




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