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Forex Forum Archive for 05/20/2011

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Syd 23:54 GMT May 20, 2011
Housing will be hurt by carbon tax: Abbott
Reply   
It would also push up mortgage repayments by $43 a month, with building product manufacturers and new home buyers across Australia to be the hardest hit, the HIA said.

LINK

Syd 23:45 GMT May 20, 2011
Gillard support crashes in Queensland, poll shows
Reply   
PRIME Minister Julia Gillard's popularity has crashed in Queensland, where her predecessor Kevin Rudd is preferred as Labor leader, a poll shows.

Gillard looks like they are gunning for her!!

Syd 22:32 GMT May 20, 2011
Bubble will burst, RBA warned
Reply   
THE board of the Reserve Bank has received five briefings from its economists in the past year on bubbles in the global commodity markets, the risk of a serious correction in China and the extent to which Australian house prices are overvalued

LINK ....But the bank has denied access to all five documents despite a request by The Weekend Australian

dc CB 21:11 GMT May 20, 2011
COT



10Y

gwe all

dc CB 21:02 GMT May 20, 2011
COT



5Year Note

dc CB 21:00 GMT May 20, 2011
COT



Interesting
30Y Bond futures

Fx Trading Discussion 20:59 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
Trading patterns:

EURUSD Trading Plan

dc CB 20:57 GMT May 20, 2011
COT



Aussie

dc CB 20:56 GMT May 20, 2011
COT



Euro future

dc CB 20:54 GMT May 20, 2011
COT
Reply   


USD futures

GVI Forex Blog 20:36 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
The euro fell for the first time in five days on Friday, succumbing to a slew of negative news on Greece, with the single-currency's weakness likely to persist over the near-term if the country's debt situation remains unresolved.

FOREX NEWS - Euro slumps vs dollar on negative Greece news

Livingston nh 20:30 GMT May 20, 2011
Fed Treasury Holdings Pass $1.5 Trillion

The Fed has been tight -THE PURCHASE OF TREASURYS IS THE EQUIVALENT OF BUYING MONEY

GVI Forex Jay 20:30 GMT May 20, 2011
Market Chatter

EUR/USD getting a little late lift from this:

Friday, May 20, 2011 4:26:34 PM
(PO) IMF has approved €26B loan to Portugal; €6.1B will be made immediately available
- NOTE: euro zone finance ministers meeting in Brussels granted Portugal a €78B bailout on Monday

TradeTheNews.com

Fx Trading Discussion 20:27 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   

EURUSD Trading Plan

dc CB 20:27 GMT May 20, 2011
Fed Treasury Holdings Pass $1.5 Trillion
Reply   
It seems like it was only yesterday that the Fed passed the $1 trillion mark in total Treasury holdings (actually it was on that memorable Winter Solstice of 2010 but who's counting). Well it is not even 5 full months later, and the Fed has already added $500 billion in holdings. Following today's $6.94 billion Pomo, total Fed holdings of US Treasurys have now passed $1.5 trillion (which is ironic because the net new cash tendered to the Treasury per total Bond, Note and Bill issuance and redemption in 2011 through the most recent settled auction is $350 billion, in other words the Fed has funded about 140% of the total Treasury cash needs). As a reminder there is just under 6 weeks left until QE2 ends, at which poin the Fed's Treasury holdings will be about $1.6 trillion, and the Treasury will be without its primary (over and above the maximum) source of capital.

ZH

Tokyo Rana 20:09 GMT May 20, 2011
Daily TA trade

Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: 1.37/1.39next week Stop:

next week will see below 1.4....happy trade,

dc CB 20:08 GMT May 20, 2011
Market Chatter

FYI
Tomorrow, according to certain Christians running around, is the end of days...they believe they will be Raptured and then chaos will ensue until a date in October, when the world will end.

ALSO Treausry will auction off $110Bln in 2s,5s,7s, and 10 Tips next week. Stocks should be on the back foot to scare money in to the auction. Risk off at least in US time?

Tokyo Rana 20:07 GMT May 20, 2011
Daily TA trade

Sell CHFJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

keep short euro against everything....and short chf against jpy and usd$...still hold euro short on rise short more....also short aud and nzd ithink stocks about to fall.......happy weekend,

Belgrade TD 20:00 GMT May 20, 2011
Daily TA trade

Belgrade TD 06:15 GMT May 20, 2011
Long USD/CHF at ~0,8818 ... longer time frame ...
///
Belgrade TD 12:19:41 GMT - 05/20/2011
add at 0,8762 ... avg ~0,879 ...
///
closed 0,8762 long at 0,8785 ... do not need double exposure ... new position BE at 0,8795 ... until next week :) nice weekend to all

nyc ws 19:59 GMT May 20, 2011
Forex Trading Plan

In the end no one wants to go home long euro over the weekend. Signing off. Have a good one.

GVI Forex john 19:48 GMT May 20, 2011
Market Chatter


UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Gen dk 19:17 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Gen dk 19:17 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Tokyo Rana 19:08 GMT May 20, 2011
jpy
Reply   
Sell USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

out from short no lost no profit...some thing tells me next week again see 82 than short above 82...happy weekend,

Gen dk 19:07 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

JERUSALEM KB 18:45 GMT May 20, 2011
Forex Trading Plan

Sell EURCHF
Entry: 1.2388 Target: 1.2310-1.2255 Stop: 1.2505

thanks jmr

JERUSALEM KB 18:43 GMT May 20, 2011
Forex Trading Plan

EURCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

correction:
a weekly close below ***1.2480** followed by a break of 1.2405 may target 1.2307 and 1.2248 with stop above1.2490.

Norfolk jmr 18:42 GMT May 20, 2011
Forex Trading Plan

KB, guess you meant to say Sell EUR/CHF at 1.2388.

JERUSALEM KB 18:41 GMT May 20, 2011
Forex Trading Plan

jmr,
no it hit sl at entry , i don`t think it is good to go long now on usdjpy it is now below ress. again

JERUSALEM KB 18:25 GMT May 20, 2011
Forex Trading Plan



Sell EURCHF
Entry: 1.4388 Target: 1.4310-1.4255 Stop: 1.4505

hope to see a side way tradeing between 1.2400and 1.2500 before breakout if happened.
another pressure on euro.

Belgrade TD 18:23 GMT May 20, 2011
Forex Trading Plan



as for my view its near confirmed weekly sell signal ...

Norfolk jmr 18:22 GMT May 20, 2011
Forex Trading Plan

KB, are you still in the USD/JPY long trade? If so, do you think it would be a good time to enter a long at this point. Thanks in advance.

JERUSALEM KB 18:19 GMT May 20, 2011
Forex Trading Plan

good point JAY and if you also look on euro crosses all are putting euro under pressure.

JERUSALEM KB 18:17 GMT May 20, 2011
Forex Trading Plan



EURCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

a weekly close below 1.2460 followed by a break of 1.2405 may target 1.2307 and 1.2248 with stop above1.2490.

GVI Forex Jay 18:13 GMT May 20, 2011
Forex Trading Plan



KB, look at this one. Also a one hour chart and note the 100 and 200 hour mvas (green and yellow lines), currently capping the upside.

JERUSALEM KB 18:11 GMT May 20, 2011
Forex Trading Plan



EURGBP
Entry: Target: Stop:

a daily close below daily trend line(new trend line not tested yet) will push eurgbp lower and sure will effect euro

Belgrade TD 18:10 GMT May 20, 2011
Market Chatter

ib / we absolutely agree about the situation in USA ... this news just means that this summer will be very interesting ... with many hidden and very actual news ... Logic says - risk off but ...

JERUSALEM KB 18:05 GMT May 20, 2011
Forex Trading Plan



EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

eurusd is below support line in 1hr chart

Paris ib 17:52 GMT May 20, 2011
Market Chatter

TD The 'market' is not focused on this issue AT ALL given all the headlines and soundbites (not to mention Friday downgradings) about Greece. What it interesting is the underlying longer term market flows though. If this issue is under the radar in terms of the retail market but of concern to longer term holders of U.S. debt ie. Central banks then this might explain the failure of follow through selling in EUR/USD today and other days. I'm taking an agnostic approach on this one but am watching closely. The DSK debacle, the Bin Laden 'announcement', the triple notch downgrading etc. etc. suggest a rush to window dress and distract from a very important and dangerous issue. But if the USD doesn't see real buying then you have to consider your options here.

Belgrade TD 17:43 GMT May 20, 2011
Market Chatter

@ ... Foreign investors continue to buy and hold plenty of U.S. Treasurys, but China -- once the largest holder -- is reducing its holdings. As the end of the second round of quantitative easing, or QE2, is in sight, we need to maintain the credibility of U.S. debt, take real steps toward reining in government spending and tackle long-term deficits.
But no one I know thinks it's acceptable for the country to miss interest payments, whether for fundamental, technical or especially for political reasons.
What exactly would happen if the debt limit is not extended is unclear. We are now in a limbo period that will expire in August, but it is difficult to see anything positive coming from inaction. Under that scenario, the country would default on its debt payments and then what ... rating-agency downgrades, followed by sellers (and more sellers) who could no longer own U.S. Treasurys because they are not AAA-rated and the prospects for great turmoil -- in all markets.

JERUSALEM KB 17:35 GMT May 20, 2011
Forex Trading Plan



Buy OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:

a weekly close above 0.8010 will put NZDUSD in a bullish trend and will put audnzd under pressure.

uk chris 17:26 GMT May 20, 2011
Daily TA trade

Any news out?

Tokyo Rana 17:12 GMT May 20, 2011
Daily TA trade

Belgrade TD 17:06dear friend,im ok thanx....yes this week nzd was so strong....im expecting nzdjpy to go down from here...happy trade,

Belgrade TD 17:06 GMT May 20, 2011
Daily TA trade



Tokyo Rana 16:54 GMT May 20, 2011
Hi Rana ... hope you are well :) ... I do not trade the NZD/JPY but this is how my TA system sees the pair ...

Tokyo Rana 16:54 GMT May 20, 2011
Daily TA trade

Sell OTHER
Entry: nzdjpy64.50 Target: open Stop: later

any idea why nzd so strong?im short some nzdjpy 64.50...happy weekend to all,

Tokyo Rana 16:52 GMT May 20, 2011
Daily TA trade

Belgrade TD 16:43 dear friend,very very nice...happy trade,

Belgrade TD 16:51 GMT May 20, 2011
Daily TA trade

GVI Forex Jay 16:46 GMT May 20, 2011
tnx Jay :) ... good start but is not over yet ...

GVI Forex Jay 16:46 GMT May 20, 2011
Daily TA trade

TD, I scratched my head when you put that on - hats off for a nice trade.

Belgrade TD 16:43 GMT May 20, 2011
Daily TA trade

Belgrade TD 14:17:35 GMT - 05/20/2011
Long NZD/USD at 0,7911 ... long-term ... 10 lots (usual for Daily) with cascading target, so I can reduce risk in any situation, during the trade ...
///
1/5 out at ~0,798 (~+70) ... reducing risk

nyc ws 16:34 GMT May 20, 2011
usd

Yo to those who bought the stretched ranges

singapore td 16:31 GMT May 20, 2011
usd
Reply   
wow, we are back to selling usd across the board mixed with profit taking

BERN DS 16:11 GMT May 20, 2011
Trend
Reply   
Sell EURCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

Thanks for all flowers about expert in EURCHF-- yes , sometimes I am... but sometimes I am not... today I was long from yesterday, had a good run- and second half closed at breakeven 12545... I am actually pretty sure that a rally towards 12490-00 should be sold for a break below 12400. The natural water fall in this cross is not yet over and could be pretty brutal... I am flat right now, but will act on the levels above... , and I fear as well , that the other good leg will be SHORT USDCHF-- too many people are always sitting in this USD Bull camp... but i will remain flexible... USDCHF could tank to .6500 in the next 12-18 month... good trading to all -- great forum ..

GVI Forex Blog 16:07 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
Markets question degree of ‘risk-off’ trade, rebounding tentatively last week, but US data continue to soften ahead of QEII expiry.

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - HIGH STREET CONCERNS WEIGH ON UK RATES OUTLOOK

GVI Forex Blog 15:39 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
The euro had pushed out to its highs of the week during the European session earlier this morning as officials concentrated their rhetoric on arrangements for the ESF rather than just Greece. But just after 07:00ET the euro started plummeting, falling from 1.4350 to nearly 1.4150 by mid morning.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update

Hillegom Lappy 4 Purk 15:37 GMT May 20, 2011
e/u

Hillegom Lappy 4 Purk 14:36 GMT May 20, 2011 - My Profile
e/u: Reply
I do not have indicators. I do not trade gold nor beans. I trade on streched ends. I will start longing e/u just about now....
start small try to buy at lower levels.
Better not follow when you are new at forex market...

_______________________________________
Closed half at 14188, rest at b/e plus 10.

Hong Kong Qindex 15:37 GMT May 20, 2011
EUR/JPY : Current Comments

Sell EURJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/JPY : Critical Support 115.14


The market is now consolidating within the weekly cycle matrix system at 115.14 - 117.219 - 117.25. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the critical support at 115.14.


Qindex.com

EUR/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

HK Kevin 15:24 GMT May 20, 2011
Long EUR/CHF

HK Kevin 14:54 GMT May 20, 2011
Long EUR/CHF: Reply
Just long at 1.2409 for pips picking. Stop placed at 1.2359.
Out at 1.2449


singapore td 15:23 GMT May 20, 2011
euro
Reply   
well, looking at weekly chart, we are still in positive territory for the week, still a chance to go back to 1.43 or even 1.45 as long as the week low stay intact

Belgrade TD 15:22 GMT May 20, 2011
my kind of news :)
Reply   
The only reason I envy people in the USA:

" NASA Langley Research Center has partnered with the Morehead Planetarium and Science Center, and the Raleigh Astronomy Club to bring two days of free, interactive exhibits and educational stations to the Museum. All four floors will transform into a world of "planetary exploration," which is the theme of this year's event.
In addition to the Mars Rover replica, provided by NASA 's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. , visitors will also get to make comets out of dry ice, make rockets, take imaginary trips to Jupiter, Saturn , Mercury and the moon, as well as see the GeoDome, which projects clear, high-definition images and movies that create a virtual space experience."
... but well :))

lkwd jj 15:21 GMT May 20, 2011
gold
Reply   
gold spike?

manila tom 15:19 GMT May 20, 2011
euro

yes, Bern DS has been absolutely bullish on CHF
if i am not wrong, he was looking for eurchf to be at parity

Minneapolis DRS2 15:10 GMT May 20, 2011
Selling into weakness

Oops...I meant price in 1.43xx...sorry.

Minneapolis DRS2 15:08 GMT May 20, 2011
Selling into weakness
Reply   
Jay had mentioned something long ago which always stuck with me. It is useful information for all traders, and went something like this:

The professional trader will sell into weakness. On the other hand, the retail trader will buy into weakness, thinking the price will go up.

So what happens with Euro today? Well, in the case of EUR/USD, it started to show weakness with price in 1.43xx. Once the selling started...you know the rest.

Sometimes the "easy" trade is the hardest, and it all comes down to psychology.

Belgrade TD 15:04 GMT May 20, 2011
euro

manila tom 14:59 GMT May 20, 2011
well, real expert here for CHF is BERN DS ... but Switzerland is not EU member ... and certainly, CHF is better than euro ... :)

manila tom 14:59 GMT May 20, 2011
euro

TD, problems for EU except for Swiss perhaps?

Hong Kong Qindex 14:56 GMT May 20, 2011
EUR/USD : Current Comments

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : It is likely that the market will test the supporting strength of 1.4087 // 1.4099.


Qindex.com

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

GVI Forex Blog 14:56 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
May 20 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, May 23:

GVI Forex- Data Outlook for May 23, 2011

HK Kevin 14:54 GMT May 20, 2011
Long EUR/CHF
Reply   
Just long at 1.2409 for pips picking. Stop placed at 1.2359

GVI Forex john 14:53 GMT May 20, 2011
Market Chatter



May 20 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, May 23:

  • Far East: JA- no major data.
  • Europe: EZ- Flash PMI maf and Service PMIs.
  • North America: no major data.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar

Belgrade TD 14:52 GMT May 20, 2011
euro

just short overview of the later discussion on the euro and the dollar ... we agree that the dollar does not have any perspective this year ... but the market closed its eyes to the fact that the euro, with all its problems is definitely not a better choice than a dollar ... Of course we can trade up and down, but the point is that the euro, at least this year, is not better investment than the dollar ... and the problems for EU are just beginning ...

nyc ws 14:48 GMT May 20, 2011
euro

You guys are fighting against where the stops are. Maybe you get lucky with your timing. gl

HK Kevin 14:45 GMT May 20, 2011
Short EUR/GBP

This pair at current levelalso look attractive to me. Just short at 0.8820. stop at 0.8851, target open.
Not much to do today. CLosed my short EUR/GBP position all at 0.8746

singapore td 14:43 GMT May 20, 2011
euro
Reply   
Purk, i think the idea is right
range has been 200 today
probably enough for euro's downside today, time for some contra until the close

lkwd jj 14:39 GMT May 20, 2011
oil
Reply   
Hong Kong Qindex 03:07 GMT May 20, 2011
Crude Oil : Current Comments : Reply
Crude
Entry: Target: Stop:

Crude Oil : The market is under pressure when it is below 109.18. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market resume its downward trending movement and penetrates through 97.18.
---------------------------------------
what precision. doctors prescription.

Belgrade TD 14:39 GMT May 20, 2011
e/u

... also Fitch downgrades Greece to B+ from BB+

Hillegom Lappy 4 Purk 14:36 GMT May 20, 2011
e/u

I do not have indicators. I do not trade gold nor beans. I trade on streched ends. I will start longing e/u just about now....
start small try to buy at lower levels.
Better not follow when you are new at forex market...

GVI Forex Jay 14:36 GMT May 20, 2011
Market Chatter

Pouring has on the fire but shouldn't be a surprise

Fitch downgrades Greece 3 notches to B+

Gen dk 14:35 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hong kong Jaimie 14:29 GMT May 20, 2011
e/u

mr. Purk, which indicators you are using? do have also signals for trading gold and soy beans?

GVI Forex Jay 14:29 GMT May 20, 2011
e/u

More on Norway

Friday, May 20, 2011 10:26:01 AM
(GR) Norway Foreign Ministry: Confirms that Norway has suspended payment of $42M grant to Greece, notes that Greece has not fulfilled its commitments and may have broken rules
***Note that yesterday Swiss journal NZZ wrote that "Norway will first stop all further financial aid payments to the highly indebted Greece. The reason is that Greece does not fulfill its obligations descendants, the Norwegian Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Store said on Thursday before the Parliament."

TradetheNews.com

Belgrade TD 14:28 GMT May 20, 2011
Daily TA trade



manila tom 14:25 GMT May 20, 2011
purely technical - maybe but not jet ... see chart

manila tom 14:25 GMT May 20, 2011
Daily TA trade

what about audusd TD? shall it be a buy as well as nzdusd?

Hillegom Lappy 4 Purk 14:18 GMT May 20, 2011
e/u

Only for short periods of time today, scalping. you will have to buy ralleys of 50-80 pips fall.

Belgrade TD 14:17 GMT May 20, 2011
Daily TA trade

Buy OTHER
Entry: 0,7911 Target: ~ Stop: ~

Long NZD/USD at 0,7911 ... long-term ... 10 lots (usual for Daily) with cascading target, so I can reduce risk in any situation, during the trade ...

GVI Forex Jay 14:15 GMT May 20, 2011
e/u

TTN reporting the blog report on Norway, the source of the Zerohedge article, came out late yesterday.

The market is treating it as new news.

singapore td 14:10 GMT May 20, 2011
e/u

Purk, what do you think? can buy some more euros here?

GVI Forex Jay 14:09 GMT May 20, 2011
e/u

Look at the Norway news - that seemed to be the catalyst

Gen dk 14:07 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Hillegom Lappy 4 Purk 14:07 GMT May 20, 2011
e/u
Reply   
Range 180 now. Bounce was not that strong.

Gen dk 14:04 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Tokyo Rana 14:03 GMT May 20, 2011
friday

Sell CHFJPY
Entry: 93plus Target: open Stop: will add later

add on every 100pips rise something very special coming look japanese stocks.....happy trade,

Lahore FM 14:03 GMT May 20, 2011
usdcad nzdusd and audusd

Porto Cubriclas 13:52 GMT May 20, 2011

Cubriclas you are only very kind!

thanx!!

makassar alimin 14:02 GMT May 20, 2011
buy euro intraday
Reply   
bought 1.4171, stop 1.4138 for a pop to 1.42 again

Gen dk 14:02 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex Jay 14:02 GMT May 20, 2011
Market Chatter

The apparent catalyst for the eur/usd fall is an article on Zerohedge

Norway stops aid payment to Greece

Tokyo Rana 14:01 GMT May 20, 2011
friday

Sell EURJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

i told u all buy usd$ and jpy...happy weekend to all,

Belgrade TD 14:00 GMT May 20, 2011
Market Chatter

Risk on/off ... if we talk about indices - until end of the summer: health care, utilities and consumer staples ... which means we go into safer waters ... but it is a very long-term forecast for Forex ... simply in this environment with daily min. oscillation +/- 100+ pips, its not profitably take a higher risk long positions ... Of course, its individual but at least from my point of view .. for me - daily and 1h chart ... and all my trade are based on them ...

Fx Trading Discussion 13:58 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   

EURUSD Trading Plan

makassar alimin 13:56 GMT May 20, 2011
friday
Reply   
another liquidation mode?

singapore td 13:53 GMT May 20, 2011
buy euro
Reply   
stopped out earlier on euro long

relong 1.4208, stop 1.4177, target still 1.4310

Gen dk 13:53 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Porto Cubriclas 13:52 GMT May 20, 2011
usdcad nzdusd and audusd

Tom, you have your view and FM his view. Are different? Sure! No problem with that. The market is working.
Do you know what i sometimes i ask to my wife? I ask "dear do you know where is the best forex trader from?". Do you know her answer? "Pakistan" she said. Thats her opinion because i told it before. We have to respect all the opinions. Some are good almost the time and other opinions are not quite good all the time.
Good trades and good luck!

nyc ws 13:51 GMT May 20, 2011
boring friday

No more stops on the upside so risk is whether there are stops on downside in this thin Friday.

Lahore FM 13:51 GMT May 20, 2011
usdcad nzdusd and audusd

audusd might have possibly failed upmove already!

Lahore FM 13:50 GMT May 20, 2011
usdcad nzdusd and audusd

DHM above 0.7940 is the price to short nzdusd

Southport UK dhm 13:47 GMT May 20, 2011
usdcad nzdusd and audusd

FM - I am looking to short AUD$ around 1.0750 area with a 1.0200 area target

I do not trade NZD often, so if you can suggest an entry level and objective, I would like to study - thanks

singapore td 13:44 GMT May 20, 2011
boring friday
Reply   
no more data released today, no news, nothing to move the market anymore
time to do something else and come back for the closing analysis
all positions are good and stop set

Lahore FM 13:39 GMT May 20, 2011
usdcad nzdusd and audusd

Tom you may have your view.i don;t mind!

Southport UK dhm 13:36 GMT May 20, 2011
usdcad nzdusd and audusd

The source I have for this has been reliable in the past - also Goldmans has SIGNIFICANTLY reduced their positions (in fact exited many) in metals and oil. We probably will be in a range, rather than a falling market - but quite a wide range. GL GT

manila tom 13:31 GMT May 20, 2011
usdcad nzdusd and audusd

do you always believe what you read? Soros could be start buying now again, and he would love to be able to buy some more cheaper if he does get the correction he wanted

GVI Forex Jay 13:28 GMT May 20, 2011
risk averse day



EUR/CHF one hour chart - not for the faint of heart but needs to establish below bottom of 1.25-1.27 to suggest a lower range. Range today has been 1.2456-1.2645

Southport dhm 13:25 GMT May 20, 2011
usdcad nzdusd and audusd

In fact just read where Soros has dumped all his gold holdings and is expecting a much larger correction in commods.

singapore td 13:25 GMT May 20, 2011
sell usdchf
Reply   
intraday sell usdchf 0.8787, stop 0.8810, target 0.8718

manila tom 13:18 GMT May 20, 2011
usdcad nzdusd and audusd

i doubt it FM, commodities to be very well supported
we had a good correction already
they would probably just go sideways

Lahore FM 13:15 GMT May 20, 2011
usdcad nzdusd and audusd

DHM all three to fall infact.usdcad is leading the move with cad weakness.just my two cents!

singapore td 13:11 GMT May 20, 2011
buy euro intraday
Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.4252 Target: 1.4310 Stop: 1.4222

let's bring euro higher according to Purk's range
we need a boring market afterall ;)

GVI Forex Jay 13:10 GMT May 20, 2011
Daily TA trade

Click on the chart once opened to zoom in.

Belgrade TD 13:08 GMT May 20, 2011
Daily TA trade



here what I see as present/future movements ...

Southport UK DHM 13:00 GMT May 20, 2011
usdcad nzdusd and audusd

Lahore FM - always interesting to read your views.

Are you suggesting that AUD$ and NZD$ to fall and $CAD to rise (to parity)?

Many thanks

kl fs 12:58 GMT May 20, 2011
usdcad nzdusd and audusd

FM, not sure what you mean by that
audusd nzdusd and usdcad all three going in the same direction i.e. up? how?

Southport UK dhm 12:54 GMT May 20, 2011
risk averse day



CHF/HUF weekly chart attached - cant say I have EVER looked at this one before.

If discussions are to help those with CHF denominated mortgages, then would it not be that the CHF/HUF rate would be negotiated DOWN (causing a weaker CHF) as opposed to what we have seen today (a sharply higher CHF across the board?)

Just trying to get some understanding here, as it seems to affect $chf eurchf, which are pairs I (and others) trade.

Belgrade TD 12:53 GMT May 20, 2011
Daily TA trade

as for NZD/USD since morning am waiting for good entry (long) ... I'm not jet sure for AUD/USD ... as for USD/CHF - am Long ... at least for a while, if and when - I will close this position, but still Long ...

Lahore FM 12:43 GMT May 20, 2011
usdcad nzdusd and audusd
Reply   
nzdusd and audusd to follow usdcad;s way soon.what the first two are doing is called "goondagardi" in my local langauge.

goondgardi is the chief practice of hoodlums!

GVI Forex john 12:43 GMT May 20, 2011
risk averse day

CHF strength also related to settlement of a fixed CHF exchange rate for Hungarian borrowers for paying mortgages..

Southport UK dhm 12:40 GMT May 20, 2011
risk averse day

CHF continues to stengthen across the board following comments out of the WSJ from the Swiss economics minister Swiss economic minister Schneider-Ammann urges the country’s elite to ‘learn to live’ with the strong CHF, in an apparent sign that the Swiss government is unlike to step up measures to assist the country’s companies in their struggle with the strong currency.


The Hungarian government and the banks in that country have agreed on a CHF/HUF exchange rate in a deal to covert CHF-denominated mortgages into HUF. Apparently there are CHF 600 bln in mortgages outstanding…


A couple of news bits I picked up RE: swissy

Gen dk 12:39 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

GVI Forex Jay 12:35 GMT May 20, 2011
risk averse day

From GVI Forex

talk is it the Nycomed deal... and eur chf hits its low there at 1.15 UK time... so guess it has been executed at the ecb fix

GVI Forex john 12:34 GMT May 20, 2011
Market Chatter

- March Canadian Retail Sales fall significantly short of expectations.
- USDCAD higher.

London Mick 12:34 GMT May 20, 2011
risk averse day

ds if you are watching what happened to the chf? Is it risk aversion or M&A?

GVI Forex Blog 12:33 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
Dollar-Swiss is trading volatile in between its 21-DMA Support (0.8767).

FX Thoughts for the day : 20-May-2011 - 1230 GMT

kl fs 12:32 GMT May 20, 2011
risk averse day

FM, looks like your usdcad is heading to beyond parity, I am pretty sure about it!

GVI Forex john 12:31 GMT May 20, 2011
Market Chatter

-- ALERT --
CA- March Retail Sales
mm: 0.0% vs. +0.9% exp. vs. +0.5%r prev.
Retail Sales x-autos
mm: -0.1% vs. +0.7% exp. vs. 0.8%r prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Blog 12:31 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
The euro fell against the dollar on Friday as wariness about disagreements on how to tackle Greece's debt and ahead of a Spanish regional elections caused investors to cut back bullish euro bets before the weekend.

FOREX NEWS - Euro falls on concerns about Greece, Spain vote

Southport UK dhm 12:30 GMT May 20, 2011
risk averse day

You may be right FM. Eur/Yen and particularly EUR/CHF down hard this morning. Many times EUR/CHF sharp moves predict moves ahead in S+P - futures down only a touch so far, but keeping my eye on S+P for move down later.

Southport UK DHM 12:27 GMT May 20, 2011
1h TA trade

Any news why CHF pairs are very down today, especially in the past half hour.

EUR/CHF down since 7am UK time - starting my trading day late today, so just wondering if anyone has news re this move

Lahore FM 12:24 GMT May 20, 2011
risk averse day
Reply   
its developing into a risk averse session imho!

Belgrade TD 12:22 GMT May 20, 2011
1h TA trade

Belgrade TD 06:17 GMT May 20, 2011
Short GBP/USD at 1,6232 ... intraday or so ...
///
out at ~BE ... maybe later

Belgrade TD 12:19 GMT May 20, 2011
Daily TA trade

Belgrade TD 06:15 GMT May 20, 2011
Long USD/CHF at ~0,8818 ... longer time frame ...
///
add at 0,8762 ... avg ~0,879 ...

Hong Kong Qindex 11:54 GMT May 20, 2011
EUR/USD : Current Comments
Reply   
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : The followings are still valid :-



=============================================


Hong Kong Qindex 02:20 GMT May 19, 2011
EUR/USD : Current Comments : Reply
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : The first barrier is expected at 1.4316 // 1.4339.


Qindex.com

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Hong Kong Qindex 14:48 GMT May 18, 2011
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3866: Reply
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD: The market is under pressure when it is rejected from the daily cycle barrier at 1.4253 // 1.429.


==============================================

Hong Kong Qindex 10:40 GMT May 17, 2011
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3866: Reply
EURNZD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : The bias is still on the downside when the market is below the daily cycle barrier at 1.4253 // 1.4293. A supporting barrier is expected at 1.4046 // 1.4061.


Qindex.com


===========================================

Hong Kong Qindex 03:55 GMT May 14, 2011
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.3866: Reply
EUR/USD (1.4106) : Weekly Cycle Analysis


Pivot Centers : 1.3948 - 1.3970 - 1.3981


Neutral Range : 1.3866 - 1.4140


Critical Points : 1.3548 & 1.3866


Remarks : The bias is on the downside when the market is below 1.4000 mark. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is trading below the weekly cycle pivot centers at 1.3948 - 1.3970 - 1.3981.


Qindex.com
EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Hillegom Lappy 4 Purk 11:47 GMT May 20, 2011
170-250.
meaning like 14190-14090.
Not to be ruled out in this market is a boring going back to 14312.... today is about stophunting, what else is there?

Tokyo Rana 11:44 GMT May 20, 2011
Tech Talk - EURUSD

Sell EURJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

all is short buy jpy and usd$...happy weekend to all,

Sing sc 11:42 GMT May 20, 2011
Purky what is the extreme range for you today?

Hillegom Lappy 4 Purk 11:40 GMT May 20, 2011
Range 130 now, lets see if it can pushes some more. Stops are being taken.

Gen dk 11:40 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

ldn ct 11:39 GMT May 20, 2011
Tech Talk - EURUSD

Anyone buying eurusd against 1.4195-00 or is this a stay away Friday?

Fx Trading Discussion 11:08 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   

EURUSD Trading Plan

GVI Forex john 11:08 GMT May 20, 2011
Market Chatter



- Canadian BOC Core CPI still below target.
- Headline data well above CORE target.
- Internationally, focus on core data has been going out of fashion.
- USD CAD higher.

GVI Forex john 11:02 GMT May 20, 2011
Market Chatter

-- ALERT --
Canada April CPI
BOC Core (BOC target 2.0%yy)
mm: +0.2% vs. +0.2% exp. vs. +0.7% prev.
yy: +1.6% vs. +1.6% exp. vs. +1.7% prev.
Headline-
mm: +0.3% vs. +0.5% exp. vs. +1.1% prev.
yy: +3.3% vs. +3.4% exp. vs. +3.3% prev.


TTN: Special Offer

Source: statcan

GVI Forex john 10:54 GMT May 20, 2011
Market Chatter

- Spotlight on Canada today with two major releases due.
- CPI at the top of the hour and then Retail Sales at 12:30 GMT.

GVI Forex Blog 10:42 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
The currencies markets have traded in a fairly quiet manner, with tight ranges seen for the most session.

TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Equities markets gain, ignoring the widening in EU peripheral debt spreads

GVI Forex Jay 10:33 GMT May 20, 2011
Tech Talk - EURUSD
Reply   


10:30 GMT (Global-View.com) May 20 - While the eur/usd has retraced as per the risk, it has been an uninspiring rebound. The overnight highlight was a move through 1.4339 but it paused below 1.4350. Why 1.4350 is important is that it is mid-way between 1.42-1.45 and only above it would shift the focus to 1.45. In addition, the 50 day mva (1.4334) was briefly broken but would need to close above it to suggest more legs to the retracement.

This sets the stage for Friday’s session where one focus will be on the close as the eur/usd has closed higher each day this week but is currently below Thursday’s 1.4308 close. A break of this pattern would dampen the retracement risk and leave the market wondering whether we have seen the top for now. Using this week’s 1.4048-1.4345 range, 1.4232 = 38.2%, 1.4197 = 50%.

I posted a one hour chart to put the price action in perspective. There is an upchannel where the bottom end currently comes in at 1.4253. The 100 and 200 hour mvas are converging below it, suggests 1.4250 needs to hold to maintain a bid and keep the focus from shifting to 1.42.

Jay Meisler, co-founder, Global-View.com

Home of the Forex Forum

kl fs 10:20 GMT May 20, 2011
sell euro

euro will not go past 1.43 anymore today, in fact 1.4290 will be the ceiling for the remainder of the day!

GVI Forex john 10:18 GMT May 20, 2011
Market Chatter

  • The USD is heading into the final day of the week in North America with a soft tone. For today, where it trades relative to the 1.4300 line should set the tone.

  • The highlight today will be two pieces of Canadian data on the North American open.

  • While no major data are due from the U.S. today, items released on Thursday were generally weaker than expected.

  • The European sovereign debt problem just wont fade. Word Thursday that the ECB  would not accept Greek debt as collateral if the maturities on existing paper were extended was a blow to ongoing restructuring negotiations. 

  • Ultimately, a Greek default is in the self-interest of no one. Further Greek budgetary concessions will be demanded.

  • The BOJ kept policy steady today even though Japanese GDP data yesterday suggested that the Japanese economy is slipping back into another recession.

GVI Forex john 10:18 GMT May 20, 2011
Market Chatter

...

kl fs 10:18 GMT May 20, 2011
sell euro
Reply   
already mentioned last night, euro is going nowhere ...BUT down! ;)
byebye euro, so many problems there, it is time to say enough
usd is still the king afterall

GVI Forex john 10:09 GMT May 20, 2011
Global-View D.O.G. Iindex
Reply   
10:15 GMT (Global-View.com) May 20- The Global View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is opening in the U.S. at .5115, -0.16% from its Thursday close (-4.93% y/y).

As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7453, +0.01% (-4.23% y/y). The forex index is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.

Against gold, the USD purchasing power is currently worth .1919, -0.46% (-5.44% y/y).

Against crude, it is at 0.4492, -0.75% (-7.98% y/y). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is set against levels from the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).

D.O.G. Homepage

GVI Forex Blog 09:44 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
The USD is heading into the final day of the week in North America with a soft tone. For today, where it trades relative to the 1.4300 line should set the tone. The highlight today will be two pieces of Canadian data on the North American open. While no major data are due from the U.S. today, items released on Thursday were generally weaker than expected.

Daily Forex View-10:00 GMT- 20 May 11 Norh America-Europe

Brisbane Flip 09:39 GMT May 20, 2011
ECB Is Playing With Fire On Greek -KBC

The ECB has a conceptual conflict between the reality of the underlying unsustainable level of debt for these economies and their massive portfolio of dodgy debt they have bought back from French and German banks. This conflict will be further enshrined when Lagarde further erode the independence of the IMF. Every other time restructuring/partial default is a de regeur before IMF step in and provide liquidity to struggling economies except for this time around at the behest of ECB and Europe these countries have been forced to inherit debt from privately owned banks.

Mtl JP 09:13 GMT May 20, 2011
ECB Is Playing With Fire On Greek -KBC

European Central Bank threatens to pull the plug on Greek lending - telegraph

The European Central Bank has threatened to stop lending to banks using Greek government bonds as collateral if Athens changes the terms of the debt, debt, a move which could bring down the country's banking system. The central bank is vehemently opposed to a restructuring of Greek debt, worried about a possible chain reaction through Europe's financial system and the losses it would face on the up to US$80bn of bonds on its own books.
-
The Greek has an opportunity here to tickle the ECB's and IMF's funnybone.

But will he ?

Mtl JP 08:57 GMT May 20, 2011
ECB Is Playing With Fire On Greek -KBC

that Greek 10-year yields are up 16 bps at 15.98% requires faith ...

that one will be able to collect it.

Syd 08:29 GMT May 20, 2011
China's Doctored Copper Demand
Reply   
China's copper demand isn't as lustrous as it appears, with some of the world's largest consumer of copper's imports driven not by final demand, but by efforts to circumvent government lending controls. A letter of credit, easier to obtain and cheaper than a bank loan, finances the LME copper purchase. If Shanghai copper prices are higher vs London, the importer can cover transport and storage costs, sell it at a profit on the mainland and enjoy the use of the yuan proceeds until the letter of credit expires, typically three months to a year later. A premium of $210/ton for the LME three-month contract vs Shanghai throws a wrench in the works, but businesses still can use the copper as collateral for yuan loans and keep the copper in storage hoping the price differential will move their way. Even if it doesn't, credit demand has been so strong, importers are willing to take a loss on the copper to get their hands on the cash to fund their other operations.

LINK>>>> importers may find themselves unable to roll themselves out of a dangerous game, and China's demand might not be as copper bottomed as the markets expect.

Syd 08:20 GMT May 20, 2011
ECB Is Playing With Fire On Greek -KBC
Reply   
The ECB is "playing with fire" in talking up an "open and harmful conflict with the political authorities" with its comments on the impact of Greek restructuring, says KBC. "It might inject more volatility in the markets, which could be harmful for the peripherals, the semi-core bonds and why not ultimately the euro?... such conflicts sometimes run out of control." Greek 10-year yields are up 16 bps at 15.98%.

Belgrade TD 08:12 GMT May 20, 2011
Aud

that is good move ... until the end of the summer - health care, utilities and consumer staples ...

Sydney ACC 07:22 GMT May 20, 2011
Aud

Yes. Coincidental. I sold out of Atlas Iron and others today, had them for 18 months or so. Could have got a bit better a few weeks ago, but then that's history. Still locked in a good profit. BHP, RIO etc are dow about 10% over the month. Equity market is telling us something.
Moved into utilities - Telstra and a new electricty retailer Australian Power and Gas.

Belgrade TD 07:19 GMT May 20, 2011
George Soros sells his gold

"Maybe the Chinese market has a bit more resources than Mr. Soros. " ... lol :)

HK [email protected] 07:15 GMT May 20, 2011
George Soros sells his gold

Maybe the Chinese market has a bit more resources than Mr. Soros.

May 20, 2011, 1:53 a.m. EDT

China overtakes India as top gold market


HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Chinese investors more than doubled their purchases of gold in the first quarter from a year earlier, channeling $4.1 billion into gold bars and coins and surpassing India as the world’s largest investment market.

China’s investment demand rose to 90.9 metric tons in the first quarter, overtaking India‘s demand of 85.6 tons, according to the World Gold Council’s quarterly report, released Thursday.

In the same quarter a year earlier, Chinese investors bought 40.7 metric tons of investment gold.

Investment flows into bullion investments surged 179% during the quarter, totaling $4.1 billion. The rising interest was accompanied by a surge in the number of jewelry shops and banks offering gold bars and coins in investment form.
The council said it was beginning to rethink forecasts it made last year that China would double it annual consumption of the yellow metal by the end of the decade, taking into account the accelerated consumption trend, which it said was driven by investors seeking a hedge against inflation.

“We believe that this doubling may in fact be achieved sooner,” said the Council’s managing director for the Far East, Albert Cheng.

The World Gold Council is based in the U.K and backed by a consortium of gold-mining companies,

China’s gold demand has risen at an average annual rate of 14% since trade in bullion was liberalized in 2001, the Council said.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-overtakes-india-as-top-gold-market-2011-05-20?siteid=rss&rss=1

Syd 06:58 GMT May 20, 2011
George Soros sells his gold
Reply   
George Soros, the hedge fund investor who called gold "the ultimate bubble", has sold almost his entire holding of the precious metal, leading to fears that the price is about to fall.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance
/investing/gold/8524535/George-Soros-sells-his-gold.html

Syd 06:55 GMT May 20, 2011
Aud
Reply   
Syd 04:48 GMT May 20, 2011
Sydney ACC exactly what we were saying ealier today :-)))

Syd 06:53 GMT May 20, 2011
Go Long On Aussie Bonds On China Concerns - JPMorgan
Reply   
China growth concerns or the threat of government moves to slow that growth should spur investors to take long positions on Australian bonds, says Sally Auld, senior interest rate strategist at JPMorgan. "Chinese PMI looms over all as I don't think the local market is listening enough to China. Everyone is obsessed with inflation and the RBA growth numbers, but if the China growth story cracks, maybe the RBA does nothing this year," says Auld. Australian short-end bonds are flat Friday, while the 10-year bond is up two ticks at 94.675.

Syd 06:50 GMT May 20, 2011
Australia's Climate Minister Plays Down Carbon Impact On Industry
Reply   
Australia's coal and aluminium industries would feel little impact if a planned carbon price is set at 20 Australian dollars per ton, Climate Change Minister Greg Combet said Friday.
As part of a deal to win support from the Greens party for her minority government Prime Minister Julia Gillard is locked in talks with lawmakers and industry over the design of a fixed carbon pricing scheme set to be introduced from mid next year. If that proposal is passed by lawmakers the government then wants to transition to a floating price after a three to five year period. Details on the price per ton the country's 1,000 biggest polluters will pay are due around the end of June. Trade exposed sectors such as steel and coal are vehemently against the policy arguing it will drive up their costs and render them uncompetitive against the rest of the world. But in perhaps a hint of the government's thinking, Combet in a speech said a hypothetical average A$20 per ton price--after assistance--for the pollution intensive activity in the aluminum industry would result in higher energy costs to the sector of around 0.75% of the value of a ton of aluminium, estimated at A$2,500. For coal, a A$20 per ton price would mean the average liability for methane emissions is around A$1.60 per ton. "This carbon cost is not much higher than the carbon price Australian coal already pays in India," Combet said. "It is quite conceivable that if we have do not have an appropriate carbon price present in the economy, we could face other nations imposing border tax adjustments on our exports."
Dow

Hong Kong Qindex 06:34 GMT May 20, 2011
EUR/JPY : Current Comments
Reply   
EURJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/JPY : It is a leading indicator for EUR/USD. The market is now trying to tackle the barrier at 117.13 // 118.06 (116.79 - 116.86 // 117.13 - 117.70 - 117.75 // 118.06 - 118.53).


Qinde:x.com

EUR/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

GVI Forex Blog 06:30 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
***Economic Data*** - (JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) LEAVES TARGET RATE RANGE UNCHANGED BETWEEN 0.0% TO 0.10%; (AS EXPECTED) - (US) North America Semi Equipment Industry Apr Sales book to bill ratio m

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: BOJ leaves economic assessment unchanged; BOK calls US a "massive hedge fund"; Retail earnings disappoint

Belgrade TD 06:17 GMT May 20, 2011
1h TA trade

Sell GBPUSD
Entry: 1,6232 Target: ~ Stop: ~

Short GBP/USD at 1,6232 ... intraday or so ...

Belgrade TD 06:15 GMT May 20, 2011
Daily TA trade

Buy USDCHF
Entry: 0,8818 Target: ~ Stop: ~

Long USD/CHF at ~0,8818 ... longer time frame ....
also looking for good entry NZD/USD ... today or after weekend

Syd 06:02 GMT May 20, 2011
Spain Vote Threatens to Uncover Debt
Reply   
MADRID—Weekend elections that threaten to drive Spain's ruling Socialist party from power in several regions and cities also promise a potentially nasty surprise: the revelation of piles of undisclosed debt in local governments that could undercut the country's drive to avoid an international bailout.

LINK....deficit tally of around €127 million. The opposition conservative party, however, has maintained that debt is actually higher.

Syd 05:49 GMT May 20, 2011
PBOC Chief Says China's High Savings Levels Could Lead To Asset Bubbles
Reply   
China must be vigilant in monitoring its high savings ratio, as too high a level could lead to asset bubbles and industrial overcapacity, People's Bank of China Gov. Zhou Xiaochuan said Friday.

LINK

Syd 05:04 GMT May 20, 2011
China Set To Target 1,800 Missiles At Taiwan In 2012 - Report
Reply   
TAIPEI (AFP)--The number of Chinese missiles targeted at Taiwan is likely to reach 1,800 next year, despite improving ties between the former arch-rivals, a Taiwanese news report said Friday

HK [email protected] 04:53 GMT May 20, 2011
US citizens should get a travel advisory to avoid France for sometime time.
Reply   
The DSK case has aroused too much anger in France, so it will just make sense for Americans not to go to a place where they may not be welcomed.

I think the NY police and the prosecution are just a bunch of fools the way they handled the whole case.

Syd 04:48 GMT May 20, 2011
WA premier laughs off PM's funding threat
Reply   
Sydney ACC hi, to be honest , I am not convince either way, not sure if they are talking the talk or will actually pull the trigger. Its ok them wanting people to come and live here from overseas but most cant afford to, even with property prices now starting to fall. RBA are now getting close to the top of the interest rate cycle. while the other CB are just starting raising them, I feel the RBA have a hard decision to make and they know it , once those poor buggers who got into the housing market using that Swan first time owners grant with no deposit loans start feeling the pinch and stop paying their mortgages, your going to see some blood in the streets over here in Australia the lynch mob will be going after Gillard - Wont be pretty sight :-))

Sydney ACC 04:21 GMT May 20, 2011
WA premier laughs off PM's funding threat

I am asfar from believing RBA will increase interest rates again this year as I have been. How about you?
Residential property prices are declining, job numbers have turned negative notwithstanding lower immigration numbers, wage increases are benign,although inflation is up mainly due to escalating food prices.
Can you give me a reason to change my mind?

Syd 04:16 GMT May 20, 2011
DSK's downfall could also Europe's
Reply   
http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-
business/dsks-downfall-could-also-europes-
20110519-1eu7w.html

Syd 04:06 GMT May 20, 2011
DSK's downfall could also Europe's
Reply   
Strauss-Kahn's departure from the scene couldn't have come at a worse moment. Little noticed in the U.S., but momentous inside Europe, was Denmark's unilateral decision on May 11 to check the papers of people arriving from other European nations. That's the equivalent of New York asking for papers at the Lincoln Tunnel crossing from New Jersey, and appears to violate the 1985 Schengen Agreement, which removed border-crossing procedures among 25 European states.



DSK's downfall could also Europe's

Syd 04:03 GMT May 20, 2011
DSK's downfall could also Europe's
Reply   
"At these high levels and issues of national and global importance, personal stature and personal chemistry do matter," wrote Jan Randolph, head of sovereign risk analysis at IHS Global Insight, after Strauss-Kahn's arrest. "DSK has been involved right from the start."



Syd 04:00 GMT May 20, 2011
WA premier laughs off PM's funding threat
Reply   
"There's absolute policy confusion in Canberra and that's one of the reasons business and consumer confidence in this nation is at a low level, because of the instability and erratic nature of Canberra politics and policy.

"I don't believe any promises that come out of Canberra," he said.

Forex Signals 03:45 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   

Further recovery in the Dow (12605.32, +0.36%) yesterday.

GVI Forex Blog 03:40 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
Further recovery in the Dow (12605.32, +0.36%) yesterday.

Morning Briefing : 20-May-2011 -0338 GMT

Hong Kong Qindex 03:32 GMT May 20, 2011
Natural Gas : Critical Point 4.128
Reply   
Natural Gas : A critical supporting barrier is positioning at 4.021 // 4.128.


Qindex.com

Natural Gas : Monthly Cycle Charts

Hong Kong Qindex 03:07 GMT May 20, 2011
Crude Oil : Current Comments
Reply   
Crude
Entry: Target: Stop:

Crude Oil : The market is under pressure when it is below 109.18. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market resume its downward trending movement and penetrates through 97.18.


Qindex.com

Crude Oil : Monthly Cycle Charts

Syd 03:04 GMT May 20, 2011
PBOC's Vicious Circle on Policy Means More RRR Hikes
Reply   
China's central bank is caught in a vicious circle, one that means there will be no let up in its fight to keep sucking funds out of the banking system via further increases in already record high reserve requirements.

LINK

Syd 02:54 GMT May 20, 2011
Prices seen falling if mortgage rates climb
Reply   
Residential property prices in Hong Kong could drop as much as 15 per cent if mortgage rates increase 2 percentage points over the next 12 months, according to a brokerage.
"We've already seen the lowest mortgage rates and rates have started climbing," said Adrian Ngan Wai-hung, MF Global's property research head for Greater China. "A 1.5 to 2 percentage point rise in the Hong Kong mortgage rates in the next year could trigger a 10 per cent to 15 per cent adjustment in home prices."

LINK

dc CB 02:50 GMT May 20, 2011
Capitalists Who Fear Free Markets
Reply   
By FLOYD NORRIS

Capitalism is supposed to produce losses on bad investments.
But all too often it has not.

In Tokyo this week, corporate executives were outraged when a Japanese government official suggested that banks might have to take losses on loans to the company that produced a nuclear catastrophe.
But all too often it has not.

In Tokyo this week, corporate executives were outraged when a Japanese government official suggested that banks might have to take losses on loans to the company that produced a nuclear catastrophe.
It has been more than two months since an earthquake and tsunami caused radiation leaks at the Fukushima nuclear power plants. Residents have been forced to evacuate a large area, and there is no assurance when the plants will be brought under control.

Tepco is clearly to blame. In hindsight, the plant should have had better protection against both earthquakes and tsunamis, or it should have been built in a region less vulnerable to them.

Yet it is deemed shocking to suggest those who financed the company should suffer losses.

In “free-market-based capitalism” — or at least the version they used to teach when I went to business school — lenders and shareholders were supposed to monitor the risks taken by companies. They would benefit if the company prospered and suffer if it failed.

By not spending more money on safety, Tepco was taking a risk. That risk did not work out. The question now is who will pay the bill. If it is the investors, that would serve as a powerful incentive to the other nuclear plant operators to make changes.

NY Times

dc CB 02:27 GMT May 20, 2011
ROD SERLING NOW LINKED-IN
Reply   
It definitely remains a really strange market. Fed Governor Fisher summed things up nicely Thursday stating: “We’ve gone from too little liquidity to too much.” He’s definitely off the main Fed talking points but a little honesty explains the “more money than brains” market. The LinkedIn (LKND) IPO typifies this Thursday. You may not be aware of it but word on the street is only 10 institutions were privileged to obtain freshly issued shares. I wonder who were favored with this gift; care to guess?

You couldn’t get a collection of bad economic news than what appeared today. While Jobless Claims were marginally lower given previous adjustments, the moving average of claims reached 6 month highs; Home Sales were down…again; the Philly Fed reading came in at 3.9 vs 18 expected; and Leading Indicators were lower .3 vs flat expectations. These were dreadful but bulls brushed them off hoping for more POMO and extended ZIRP.

Perhaps the stupid people are the ones not playing ball given rising markets on this lousy economic news. LKND should remind everyone of dotcom experiences but it’s really about too much liquidity.

(note LKND a "professional networking" social network site IPO'd annced at $45, Opened at $83 and traded up to $122.)

ETF digest

Gen dk 01:05 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   
Trading Signals Updated: CLICK HERE for more Gen dk information

Open 01:04 GMT May 20, 2011 Reply   

Free GVI Forex

Lahore FM 00:52 GMT May 20, 2011
eurusd

WM 1.4240 to 1.4440 might be the range on friday and the coming week.choose your entries well.

SF WM 00:43 GMT May 20, 2011
eurusd
Reply   
I came in tempted to put in a buy stop above the high but I am having second thoughts and will watch for awhile. Besides RF is anybody else expecting it to go higher?

Syd 00:34 GMT May 20, 2011
Asset bubble main threat to China growth
Reply   
CHINA is capable of strong growth for another 30 years, but the re-mergence of a major asset bubble looms as the biggest short-term danger to its economy.

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Syd 00:25 GMT May 20, 2011
Hedge Funds Crowd Into China Currency Bet Despite Doubts
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With markets on edge about China's slowly evolving economic policies, funds are finding that betting on the country's currency is almost obligatory--even if it doesn't pay off.
Big investors such as Tudor Investment Corp. and London's Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP are wagering that China's yuan will appreciate faster than markets predict, even though such bets haven't been profitable, bankers, hedge-fund traders and analysts said. One reason why: Everyone else is doing it. "It's a very relevant market," said Osvaldo Canavosio, an analyst in hedge-fund research at Man Investments. "The perceived chances of depreciation are very low, and the chances of appreciation are higher. That's the type of situation hedge-fund managers like."
The problem is China's currency appreciation has been so slow and stage-managed that there are few easy wins from these strategies, forcing hedge funds to use large amounts of borrowed cash to juice their bets. That exposes these players to bigger risks if the trade goes awry--if China's steaming economy were to slow, for example, and end the yuan's steady rise.
Spokesmen for Tudor Investment and Brevan Howard declined to comment.
"The thought is, you might lose 2%, but you could make 6%," said Jason Shell, head of North American foreign-exchange trading at Deutsche Bank AG in New York.
Many funds have bought financial contracts called "non-deliverable forwards" that allow them to speculate on the yuan without settling trades in the currency. (Unlike the dollar and euro, the yuan is an exotic currency that Chinese officials don't allow to trade freely.) Another option: Buying one-year currency options, which grant the right, but not the obligation, to buy the yuan forwards. Typical one-year options usually cost roughly 1.5% of the size of the trade.
So far, though, the yuan's appreciation has been too gradual for the more aggressive bets to pay out.
As of Thursday, trading in non-deliverable yuan forwards suggested investors already expect a roughly 2% appreciation over the next year. But anyone seeking to buy forwards now is faced with prices that are elevated because of the high demand for the few instruments that offer foreigners a way to make bets on the Chinese currency. Those high trading costs mean that hedge-fund managers need a fairly large appreciation and gobs of borrowed cash to start making money. This "hasn't necessarily been the most profitable trade out there," Man Investments' Canavosio said. This herd mentality is starting to make some nervous. Last month, one New York-based hedge-fund trader who manages several hundred million dollars stopped using options to bet on the yuan's rise, after losing money on the trade for more than a year. "The market is positioned one way and one way only, with huge amounts at stake," he said. That could be "dangerous," he added.
Still, this source said he can't yet officially turn bearish on China's currency because his fund has many Asian clients who remain confident in China--and by extension, its currency. Our management is "trying to do business" in China, this source said.
The Wall Street Journal


 




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