GVI Forex Blog 21:23 GMT May 21, 2011
I have been doing a lot of reading this week, and today we look at some of the thoughts that keep coming to my mind. Weâ€™ll think about the declining importance of economic theory (which is a tragedy) and then cast our eyes to Europe, where a truely tragicomic drama is being performed. Who needs the movies when you have the EU? There is a lot to talk about.
All for One Euro and One Euro for All? (mauldin)
Syd 18:55 GMT May 21, 2011
Fitch Cuts Greek Ratings; Investors Retreat to German Bonds
Fitch Ratings downgraded Greece's credit ratings three notches, citing the scale of the country's challenge in securing solvency.
What happens when Greece defaults
What happens when Greece defaults. Here are a few things:
- Every bank in Greece will instantly go insolvent.
- The Greek government will nationalise every bank in Greece.
- The Greek government will forbid withdrawals from Greek banks.
- To prevent Greek depositors from rioting on the streets,
- The European Central Bank will become insolvent, given its very high exposure to Greek government debt, and to Greek banking sector and Irish banking sector debt.
- Greece will redenominate all its debts into â€śNew Drachmasâ€ť or whatever it calls the new currency (this is a classic ploy of countries defaulting)
- The New Drachma will devalue by some 30-70 per cent (probably around 50 per cent, though perhaps more), effectively defaulting 0n 50 per cent or more of all Greek euro-denominated debts.
LINK-It is when, not if.
Greece suffers fresh blow as credit rating cut by Fitch
Greece has had its creditworthiness slashed by Fitch, one of the world's top three ratings agencies, in another blow to efforts to get the country's finances back on track.
GVI Forex john 18:05 GMT May 21, 2011
USD PIVOT POINTS
Entry: Target: Stop:
Weekly Pivot Points...
5/20/11 EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD AUDUSD
Last 1.4176 81.61 0.8777 1.6261 0.9719 1.0682
High 1.4345 82.23 0.8938 1.6303 0.9792 1.0710
Low 1.4046 80.62 0.8745 1.6104 0.9638 1.0502
Change 0.0073 1.13 -0.0051 0.0019 0.0037 0.0088
Pivots EURUSD USDJPY USDCHF GBPUSD USDCAD AUDUSD
Res 3 1.4631 83.96 0.9088 1.6540 0.9949 1.0969
Res 2 1.4488 83.10 0.9013 1.6422 0.9870 1.0839
Res 1 1.4332 82.35 0.8895 1.6341 0.9795 1.0761
Pivot 1.4189 81.49 0.8820 1.6223 0.9716 1.0631
Sup 1 1.4033 80.74 0.8702 1.6142 0.9641 1.0553
Sup 2 1.3890 79.88 0.8627 1.6024 0.9562 1.0423
Sup 3 1.3734 79.13 0.8509 1.5943 0.9487 1.0345
Hong Kong Qindex 15:34 GMT May 21, 2011
Gold : Critical Point 1549.9
Gold (1508.8) : Critical Point 1549.9
The market is stable when it is able to trade above the weekly cycle matrix system at 1480.7 - 1485.7 - 1500.5. A critical point is positioning at 1549.9. The weekly cycle pivot centers are located at 1494.0 - 1495.6 - 1516.2.
Gold : Monthly Cycle Charts
Hong Kong Qindex 15:09 GMT May 21, 2011
Silver : Critical Point 31.769
Silver (35.082) : Critical Point 31.769
The weekly cycle pivot centers are located at 30.048 - 35.522 - 36.613. The odds are good that the market will tackle the supporting strength of the barrier at 30.001 // 32.744. A critical point is positioning at 31.769.
Silver : Monthly Cycle Charts
Hong Kong Qindex 14:18 GMT May 21, 2011
Platinum : Critical Point 1762.6
Platinum (1772.4) : Critical Point 1762.6
The market is now consolidating within the weekly cycle matrix system at 1763.2 - 1768.8 - 1785.2. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is able to penetrate through the critical point at 1762.6.
Platinum : Monthly Cycle Charts
Tonbridge AL 07:37 GMT May 21, 2011
sell the EUR
Viktor. Thx for your kind words and no I do not think we are in a summer doldrum range
Jay. Yes I was slightly surprised that I was not more forceful in direction but when I came to do the video it just struck me that the path of least resistance in terms of screwing the majority would be a move up then down.
The attached chart shows a daily on the left side that for 7 days has gone nowhere creating a box that I have then extended that actually fits with the video although I was not focusing on this box pattern so much when I cut the video but more on the moving averages and how I was visualizing the unfolding of the pattern
The right side shows a weekly ; In both charts the momentum recently has started to wane but on this latter chart it clearly shows how important 1.40 has become a level discussed by Jay over the last week in his GVI posted analysis whereas I believe that in the Daily the 20/21 dma (Blue) has now taken on greater significance despite the capping of the 50/55 dMA (Red) and therefore a move back to the 200 dma (Yellow) is the anticipated path
The issue is Greece and there's a huge amount of denial about Greece. Some might say that the Euro would benefit and strengthen without a weak link but the reality is that once one dominoe goes then that allows precendent. And therein lies the conundrum of 1.45 - 1.36 as a short term range. Clearly Greece is coming to a head very very shortly...some would say that they quickly moved last week to set the baleout for Portugal and many believe that that means the problems in EU are being dealt with and contained, add in the Spanish election this weekend which was in the back of my mind when doing the videos and you can perhaps see where I was coming from.
prague viktor 04:15 GMT May 21, 2011
sell the EUR
Entry: Target: Stop:
thx Al for ur good work,,do u think it will be the summer range 1,36**-1,45**
GVI Forex Jay 01:31 GMT May 21, 2011
sell the EUR
Al, I can give a little feedback. I was a little surprised that you gave a two-sided risk, 1.3650 or 1.45. I had the feeling you would be calling for 1.40 or 1.38-1.40, even 1.35. I do agree on the low level of participation and maybe why the market traded the way it did on friday. I read the same elsewhere.
I did like the Grease song although it took me a few secs to piece it together. Good one.
As always, your weekend videos are well appreciated and it would be nice for others to discuss what they see as well.
By the way I read on RTRS there is talk of large eur/chf stops at 1.24.
Tonbridge AL 00:21 GMT May 21, 2011
sell the EUR
Weekly setup videos for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD for the week ahead
Click here to access the videos
a little experiment to see if anyone has any feedback on the production side but market content feedback would also be appreciated
Alternative links for MP4 files
GVI Forex john 00:09 GMT May 21, 2011
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