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Forex Forum Archive for 01/07/2012

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GVI Forex Blog 22:07 GMT January 7, 2012 Reply   
2012 will the year that the consequences of the choices made by nations of the so-called developed world will begin to truly manifest themselves in the economic realm. We are in the closing chapters of the current Debt Supercycle, with different countries strewn out along the path, some at more advanced stages than others but all headed for a destination that will force major decisions if politically painful actions are not taken.

2012: A Year of Choices (Mauldin)

Melbourne Qindex 20:32 GMT January 7, 2012
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/JPY : I have no idea why we should see 75 when EUR/USD is down to 1.18xx.

Melbourne Qindex 20:30 GMT January 7, 2012
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

Entry: Target: Stop:

kl fs 15:27 GMT January 7, 2012
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797 : Reply
Dr. Qindex, with euro mid term target 1.18xx, that should coincide with eurjpy 75 as some already suggested here?


EUR/JPY : I have no idea why we should see 75 when EUR/USD is down to 75. There are several good supporting points down the road. I have to wait and see when EUR/JPY is below the barriers at 92.29 // 96.38.

EUR/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

GVI Forex john 19:52 GMT January 7, 2012
USD Pivot Points
Week-long perspective...

Last	1.2721	77.02	0.9553	1.5424	1.0263	1.0228
High	1.3076	77.32	0.9578	1.5669	1.0270	1.0386
Low	1.2696	76.58	0.9302	1.5374	1.0072	1.0192
Change	-0.0206	0.07	0.0164	-0.0026	0.0014	0.0078

Res 3	1.3346	78.11	0.9929	1.5899	1.0529	1.0539
Res 2	1.3211	77.71	0.9754	1.5784	1.0400	1.0463
Res 1	1.2966	77.37	0.9653	1.5604	1.0331	1.0345
Pivot	1.2831	76.97	0.9478	1.5489	1.0202	1.0269
Sup 1	1.2586	76.63	0.9377	1.5309	1.0133	1.0151
Sup 2	1.2451	76.23	0.9202	1.5194	1.0004	1.0075
Sup 3	1.2206	75.89	0.9101	1.5014	0.9935	0.9957

GVI Forex john 18:35 GMT January 7, 2012
Pip Trading

1/6/2012	Weekly Ranges (pips)				
1/6/12	  74	198	194	145	
12/30/11 121	146	226	163	
12/23/11  56	237	336	232	
12/16/11  61	242	356	292	
4wk avg	  78	206	278	208	
1/6/12	 380	235	70	134	
12/30/11 227	238	117	92	
12/23/11 217	131	82	112	
12/16/11 441	291	201	182	
4wk avg	 316	224	118	130	
1/6/12	  276	295	161	184	281
12/30/11  152	330	285	150	197
23-Dec-11 160	310	221	103	254
12/16/11  303	250	147	216	337
4wk avg	  223	296	204	163	267

dc CB 17:13 GMT January 7, 2012
Goldman's Stolper Speaks, Sees EUR Downside To 1.20
Time To Go All In?

By now Zero Hedge readers know that there is no better contrarian signal in the world than Goldman's Tom Stolper: in fact it is well known his "predictions" are a gift from god (no pun intended ) because without fail the opposite of what he predicts happens - see here. 100% of the time.

Which is why, following up on our previous post identifying the record short interest in the EUR and the possibility for CME shennanigans any second now, it was only logical that Stolper would come out, warning of further downside to the EURUSD (despite having a 1.45 target).

To wit: "With considerable downside risk in the short term, within our regular 3-month forecasting horizon, the key questions are about the speed and magnitude of the initial sell-off. If we had to publish forecasts on a 1- and 2-month horizon, we could see EUR/$ reach 1.20. In other words, we expect the EUR/$ sell-off to continue for now as risk premia have to rise initially."

In yet other words, if there is a clearer signal to go tactically long the EURUSD we do not know what it may be.


dc CB 16:56 GMT January 7, 2012
Euro Shorts Surge To New Record High
Is An EC Margin Hike Approaching?

Overall, this means that FX specs are not playing relative currencies off each other, but are piling into a global European short.
Which leads us to the following precautionary observation: just like when a price collapse in gold is required, usually enacted by the reflexive relationship between futures and the underlying, in the form of a margin hike, we wonder how long before Europe, or even the Fed which most certainly does not want a strong dollar, directs the CME to hike EC maintenance margins by some ungodly amount.

Because whatever works to keep paper gold weak will most certainly help to keep the dollar even weaker.

And with a net drawdown of nearly 250,000 contracts from EUR highs in April to current lows, a EUR margin hike may have as profound an impact as QE, considering the massive amount of shorts currently holed up and demanding the collapse of Europe.


dc CB 16:46 GMT January 7, 2012

USD fut

dc CB 16:43 GMT January 7, 2012


kl fs 15:27 GMT January 7, 2012
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

Dr. Qindex, with euro mid term target 1.18xx, that should coincide with eurjpy 75 as some already suggested here?

kl fs 15:25 GMT January 7, 2012

data means nothing nowadays, especially lagging ones like COT IMHO

Mtl JP 14:35 GMT January 7, 2012
Contingency Planning

with the cat out of the bag and the public warned to "prepare for euro break-up", look for a three-day week-end in which to do it and expect all the neferious crisis consequences the financial, economic and political sophisticates warn about would be coming.

For reference, history shows that in In 1933 US took a "bank holiday" of nearly two weeks, in which insolvent institutions were reorganised.
This Week in the Great Depression -- New Year’s Blues: Echoes - Bloomberg jan 02 2012

Bling Boom Fearful Investors Stash Money in Luxury Goods - Spiegel

..."People are becoming increasingly cautious about entrusting their hard-earned money to the banks," says Rolf Bürkl of market research institute GfK. It has yet to become a mass movement"....

So far the peddlers of Keynesian funny money prescription are still in the drivers seat as they try resolve investor crisis of confidence in their fiat money. That crisis of confidence has yet to hit Joe Publics - who seems, for a variety of reason, to learn slowly, painfully and with struggle.

Currently US appears to be "benefitting" from European wows. Has european crisis contagion effect been successfully fire-ringed and is it now quaranteed to Europe immunizing NA financial market and economy ?

That may turn out to be the motherload trade: correctly timing market shift of attention from Europe to Washington and Wallstreet and the respective policy and finance confidence issue.

A more general crisis of confidence in global financial claims has yet to reach fevered pitch, one that would set off panic dumping of fiats and buying of hard assets as reliable stores of value.

In the meantime "Anyone whose salary crossed a certain threshold, Lagerfeld demanded, should have to spend a certain sum in the shops. He said he hated people who hoard money." are not just entertaining but also a warning of things to come. Hide your wealth.

philadelphia caba 14:05 GMT January 7, 2012
Goldman's Stolper Speaks, Sees EUR Downside To 1.20

philadelphia caba 13:34 GMT January 7, 2012
Non-commercials in the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders report:
EUR -139K from -128K
JPY +56K from +22.5K
EUR shorts hit a fresh record, JPY longs double
The data from the close on Jan. 3.

Melbourne Qindex 11:47 GMT January 7, 2012
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Panic selling will be triggered when the downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 1.2204 in January.

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 11:25 GMT January 7, 2012
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

It is a significant move when the market closed below the critical barrier at 1.2797 // 1.2950. The monthly cycle directional indicator suggests that speculative selling pressure will increase when the market close below [1.2493] in the New York session. The monthly cycle charts indicate that heavy selling pressure is required to push the market from 1,2877 down to 1.2345. The medium term targeting point is 1.1812.

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 10:34 GMT January 7, 2012
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2516

The bias is on the downside when the market closed below 1.2797 in the New York session. The weekly cycle pivot centres are located at 1.2561 - 1.2781 - 1.2957. A resistant barrier has been established at 1.2766 // 1.2789. A supporting barrier is expected at 1.2561 // 1.2584. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through the critical point at 1.2516. Sell on rallies is still the preferred trading strategy. The medium term targeting range is 1.2247 // 1.2306.


Melbourne Qindex 21:24 GMT January 2, 2012 - My Profile
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797 : Reply
Entry: Target: Stop:

Melbourne Qindex 04:59 GMT January 1, 2012
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797 : Reply
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

The bias is on the downside when the market is not able to close above 1.3087 in the New York session. The upside trading range is 1.2950 - 1.3087 and the downside targeting range of 1.2290 - 1.2415. Basically the market is going to be range bound between a lower barrier of 1.2247 // 1.2306 and a resistant barrier of1.3075 // 1.3090.

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

singapore td 09:12 GMT January 7, 2012
euro and eurjpy

exactly, so long term means Azumi finally realises that it is a losing battle trying to intervene every now and then, best is to let the market decide the direction and that means eurjpy freefall to 75 and usdjpy 65 are both very much in the cards this year, keep playing from short side

Syd 05:12 GMT January 7, 2012
Redeker Says Dollar `Star Performer' in 2012
Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Hans-Guenter Redeker, head of global currency strategy at Morgan Stanley, talks about the outlook for the dollar and euro in 2012. He speaks with Linzie Janis and Mark Barton on Bloomberg Television's "Countdown."

Source: Bloomberg)

Syd 05:06 GMT January 7, 2012
Darby Interview on Euro, Asia Strategy, Korean Growth
Jan. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Sean Darby, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies Group Inc., talks about the outlook for the euro zone and his investment strategy. He speaks from Hong Kong with Linzie Janis on Bloomberg Television's "Countdown."

(Source: Bloomberg)

V M 04:37 GMT January 7, 2012
Contingency Planning

thanks for sharing look beyond nose censored up gay traders!

V M 04:16 GMT January 7, 2012
Contingency Planning

Entry: Target: Stop:

All should shut fin uknowwhat "bin there done that"

Dillon AL 02:22 GMT January 7, 2012

Weekly setup videos for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD

To access the videos Click here

philadelphia caba 00:39 GMT January 7, 2012
euro and eurjpy

Shirakawa visiting Switzerland over the weekend.

Saturday, Jan. 7, 2012

No euro intervention yet, Azumi hints

Finance Minister Jun Azumi said Friday the government is monitoring the euro's decline over the "long term," indicating he sees no immediate need to intervene in the currency markets to stem the yen's appreciation.
"We are now closely watching developments in the foreign exchange market," Azumi said. "I believe we must watch (the euro's fall) over the long term."

singapore td 00:24 GMT January 7, 2012
euro and eurjpy

PAR, call their mistresses as well, seems like the wives won't listen to your call

manila tom 00:23 GMT January 7, 2012
sell usdjpy

nice indeed, close under 77 will surely bring more southbound moves next week

manila tom 14:41 GMT January 6, 2012
sell usdjpy: Reply
for the trade plan to be working, usdjpy really cannot cross above 77.68
looking for a close under 77 today to be comfortable with short position next week


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