Forex Forum Archive for 01/28/2012

Cambridge Joe 23:07 GMT January 28, 2012
EUR/USD:

Dillon Al: re. VaR.

Thanks for a very informative read !

This was very helpful to me to get some grasp of what is being spoken about.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/04/magazine/04risk-t.html?pagewanted=all

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/04/magazine/04risk-t.html?pagewanted=all

dc CB 20:00 GMT January 28, 2012
gold

If gold and silver hold up on Monday, this will be the first time in a decade that these metals were not smashed prior to or right after options expiry. For many years the bankers modus operandi was to raid these precious metals prior to options expiry as they wanted to preserve as much physical as possible. They would knock the paper price of metal below the level where many options were written whether puts or calls. For the past several months, the bankers new ploy was to attack right after options expiry but before first day notice to inflict pain on those who exercised. The plan was to prevent the longs from putting up the entire contract price.

If Monday holds up this will be a massive defeat to our bankers as many options were suddenly "in the money" and many will stand for metal. I will report on the progress of these longs for you once the delivery month of February commences for gold

Harvey Organ

GVI Forex john 19:14 GMT January 28, 2012
Pip Trading
Reply   

GVI Forex 18:14 GMT January 28, 2012
USD Moving Averages
Reply   

Nigeria Desmond 16:11 GMT January 28, 2012
Close Ties to Goldman Enrich Romney’s Public and Private Lives

GS prints money for me as a citizen, later as a president I will print for them. good deal!

philadelphia caba 16:08 GMT January 28, 2012
usdjpy

Kampoo level at 76.50?

Barbados Alicia 16:05 GMT January 28, 2012
Close Ties to Goldman Enrich Romney’s Public and Private Lives

which pension fund out AAA rated country filed lawsuit against Goldman Sachs for fraud?

dc CB 15:57 GMT January 28, 2012
Close Ties to Goldman Enrich Romney’s Public and Private Lives
Reply   
When Bain Capital sought to raise money in 1989 for a fast-growing office-supply company named Staples, Mitt Romney, Bain’s founder, called upon a trusted business partner: Goldman Sachs, whose bankers led the company’s initial public offering.

When Mr. Romney became governor of Massachusetts, his blind trust gave Goldman much of his wealth to manage, a fortune now estimated to be as much as $250 million.

And as Mr. Romney mounts his second bid for the presidency, Goldman is coming through again: Its employees have contributed at least $367,000 to his campaign, making the firm Mr. Romney’s largest single source of campaign money through the end of September.

NYT

UK Chris 15:44 GMT January 28, 2012
usdjpy
Reply   
First time posting. I learned a good lesson not to buy usdjpy after it runs up and makes a high and starts to turn down. Avoid crowded trades.

GVI Forex Jay 13:12 GMT January 28, 2012
Trade Talk- Whats Moving Markets

Saar KaL 10:09 GMT January 28, 2012
KaL's Trend and Level

Thanks Syd/
I try my best ...Lots of mistakes...but still no give up
if you want Aussie Stocks
no problem...takes my 5 minutes
GL

Nasdaq 100 for 2012

Sydney SH 10:05 GMT January 28, 2012
KaL's Trend and Level

Kal thank you for your explanation. I finally understand your what your numbers mean.

I have trouble thinking past Monday and next Friday seems a lifetime away. I look for the risk and direction and this is what I take from your closing forecasts.

Saar KaL 09:25 GMT January 28, 2012
KaL's Trend and Level

Ranges sound reasonable to you Syd?
Thanks

Saar KaL 09:23 GMT January 28, 2012
KaL's Trend and Level

yes will close within that range
w/ 95% Certainty
imo if you do 5 pairs
can not go wrong over all

Saar KaL 09:13 GMT January 28, 2012
KaL's Trend and Level

expected close range on friday
3rd of feb

NZD/USD 0.843 0.8276
EUR/GBP 0.8529 0.838
USD/CHF 0.9062 0.8817
USD/CAD 0.9998 0.9847
AUD/USD 1.0866 1.0645
EUR/CHF 1.2079 1.2015
EUR/USD 1.3627 1.3272
GBP/CHF 1.4376 1.4092
GBP/USD 1.6092 1.5729
USD/JPY 79.2404 78.3315
CHF/JPY 88.8637 86.7947
EUR/JPY 107.2501 104.5252
GBP/JPY 126.7017 123.9033


^AORD 4,488.91 4,362.55
^GDAXI 6,826.48 6,551.87
^HSI 21,835.97 21,141.00
^n225 9,280.68 8,938.67
^NDX 2,597.16 1,780.33
^GSPC 1,352.12 1,326.81
^FTSE 5,829.23 5,675.04
^DJI 13,006.64 12,766.81

Cbj Jake 05:49 GMT January 28, 2012
Gold Coast Martin
Reply   
Gold Coast Martin - What a pleasure to see your name! You were my first introduction to trading as "something doable". You started me on a "top on Aud". It did not happen right away(Aud seemed to move more slowly in those days). Then one morning I awoke to "a bundle". What fun that was!

You were extremely generous with your comments.Suddenly, you could not post without "a some one" being catatonicly rude.What a loss! Your generosity still lives in me. I do not forget to plan my trade and,over time, that taught me patience(Remember you used to say to the impatient ones, "that's just a range expansion" - laugh!) and the delight of a method that works. I hope you are well and in good health.
Thank You.

Ind! Rafe... 05:43 GMT January 28, 2012
EURUSD
Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: 1.4169 Stop:

target 14169

Dillon AL 05:00 GMT January 28, 2012
EUR/USD:

In 1994 JPM created VaR as they were then and are now the largest derivative trader in the world and although they woulkd argue differently they needed a methodology to keep the risk managers off the traders backs.
VaR suffers from a simplistic flaw. It has at its heart the concept of a normal distribution and markets are rarely that
Here are some links from JPM
You cannot manage what you cannot measure
Value-at-Risk: An Overview of Analytical VaR
An Overview of Value-at-Risk: Pat II
An Overview of Value-at-Risk: Part III
Stress Testing Value-at-Risk
Back Testing Value-at-Risk
Portfolio Management With Incremental VaR
Modeling Univariate Volatility
Here are some other VaR links
NYU - What is the most that I can lose on this investment
The Wharton School - Calculating VaR
The Wharton School = Implementing a Risk Measurement Standard
NY Times article on VAR

Ind! Rafe... 04:45 GMT January 28, 2012
GBPUSD (Corrected)
Reply   
Buy GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBPUSD 1.6232 1.5733 1.5237 1.4738


Sorry I clicked on sell instead of buy option on the page...

Ind! Rafe... 04:43 GMT January 28, 2012
GBPUSD
Reply   
Sell GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBPUSD 1.6232 1.5733 1.5237 1.4738


Trend: UP.

GVI Forex Jay 02:54 GMT January 28, 2012
EUR/USD:

Definition of 'Value at Risk - VaR'

A technique used to estimate the probability of portfolio losses based on the statistical analysis of historical price trends and volatilities. (Investopedia)

In financial mathematics and financial risk management, Value at Risk (VaR) is a widely used risk measure of the risk of loss on a specific portfolio of financial assets. For a given portfolio, probability and time horizon, VaR is defined as a threshold value such that the probability that the mark-to-market loss on the portfolio over the given time horizon exceeds this value (assuming normal markets and no trading in the portfolio) is the given probability level. (Wikopedia)

Dillon AL 01:52 GMT January 28, 2012
Videos

Weekly setup videos for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD

To access the videos Click here

GVI Forex Jay 00:20 GMT January 28, 2012
EUR/USD:

Finally a discussion on trading strategies that does not turn into a food fight. It is okay to disagree as long as it does not become personal. In the end it comes down to risk management. This discussion is also suited for after hours when it does not disturb those who are trading and good time to clear the air.

It is like some posts should add a disclaimer like when you see a stunt on TV: "Don't try this at home as it can be dangerous to your health." This is true for your trading health as well.

AC's points about rules for trading are well said for the average trader.

The more experienced traders may be able to handle risk in a diffrerent manner. In this regard, Zeus has explained his trading approach.

So now it is time to stop the battle and work together as a community. This is not a contest. The referee is your own P&L.