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Forex Forum Archive for 01/19/2013

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dc CB 23:32 GMT January 19, 2013
Presenting The S&P500's 50 Point Surge Courtesy Of The Illegal "Geithner Leak"

Yesterday we broke the news of what is prima facie evidence, sourced by none other than the Federal Reserve's official August 16, 2007 conference call transcript, that then-NY Fed president and FOMC Vice Chairman Tim Geithner leaked material, non-public, and very much market moving information (the "Geithner Leak") to at least one banker, in this case then Bank of America CEO Ken Leiws, in advance of a formal Fed announcement - an act explicitly prohibited by virtually every capital markets law (and reading thereof).

It was refreshing to see that at least several other mainstream outlets, including Reuters, The Hill and the NYT, carried this story which is far more significant than Season 1 of Lance Armstrong's produced theatrical confession and rating bonanza.

It is notable that Richmond Fed's Jeff Lacker who made the inadvertent (or very much advertent) disclosure has not backed down from his prior allegation and told the NYT yesterday that "My understanding was that President Geithner had discussed a reduction in the discount rate with these banks in connection with these initiatives."

What, however, the mainstream media has not touched upon, yet, is just how profound the market response to the Geithner Leak was, and by implication, how much money those who were aware of what the Fed was about to do made. Perhaps, it should because as we show below, the implications were staggering.

To summarize what happened for all those who were too stunned from the day's rapid events, the S&P futures moved from a low of 1320 (and 1330 at the 2:00 pm moment that the market saw a mysterious "invisible hand" pushing it higher), all the way to well over 1410 the next day: an unprecedented 90 ES point move in a few hours! The reason: the Fed's market moving announcement, as well as the Geithner Leak at just around lunch time on August 16th.


GVI Forex john bland 22:13 GMT January 19, 2013
Commitment of Traders Report
Late Friday Release

COT Report EUR Positions. In the week ending on Tuesday, EURUSD Longs up and shorts down. Market turned net long EUR.

COT Report JPY Positions. In the week ended Tuesday, JPY shorts down a touch and longs increased. Market heavily short JPY.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:38 GMT January 19, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

JP you can call it Currency War or a fight hints deflation.

How it ends up is for the history books but for now the world is awash with liquidity and banks are reluctant to lend.

Mtl JP 19:35 GMT January 19, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

john bland - in recent past Central Bankers have been spouting co-ordination and co-operation thematic mouth-fulls, patting and congratulating each other on how they have mitigated financial and economic collapse.

then on January 16th Dow Jones published: “The budgetary policies of the world's central banks are leading to major global imbalances and could lead to currency wars, Russia's central bank's first deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said… ‘We are on the verge of very serious and confrontational actions in the sphere, which is, not to get too emotional, called 'currency wars',’ Mr. Ulyukayev said… Mr. Ulyukayev cited the recently elected Japanese government's stepped up efforts to stimulate Japan's deflation-dogged economy and talk down the yen, which has sent the currency tumbling. Quantitative easing by leading central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve is also pressuring other major currencies like the dollar. ‘This is not a way to unity of global macroeconomic regulations, but to separation, segregation, to a break-up into separate zones of influence--all the way to very strong competition, all the way to global trade and currency wars, which is indeed counterproductive,’ he said.”
Do you sense a ground shift in that theme and how do you see Ulyukaye's assertion that
‘This is not a way to unity of global macroeconomic regulations, but to separation, segregation, to a break-up into separate zones of influence--all the way to very strong competition, all the way to global trade and currency wars, which is indeed counterproductive,’ ?

Particularly from a trading point of view positioning for trying to profit from "separation, segregation, very strong competition, all the way to global trade and currency wars" ?

Tia for comments and trade ideas.

GVI Forex john bland 13:58 GMT January 19, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

-- GVI Forex Trading Theme of the Week--

Forex markets returned to full stride in the most recent week. The major focus has been on the Japanese stimulus program which will come to a head with the Bank of Japan policy meeting on Tuesday. The Bank is widely expected to raise its inflation target to 2.00% from 1.00% and will further increase its quantitative ease. As for increasing its inflation target, we note that the central bank has been unable to even come close to its current 1.00% target, so the new 2.00% target will likely be meaningless. Forex markets often do not trade smoothly when the JPY is in the lead, and this may be one reason why trade was choppy in the most recent week. Otherwise, there has been a lot of interest in buying the EURJPY cross and this has seen some offset demand for the EUR vs. the USD.

10-yr JGB yield stabilized Friday after falling into BOJ.

Significant this week has been an easing of upward pressure on the CHF vs. the EUR. There also has been a lot of chatter about "Currency Wars" as a growing number of countries have been manipulating the value of their currency to get an economic advantage.

Following a Monday holiday in the U.s., the week ahead is shaping up to be an active period for forex trading. Tuesday will see what will be a very closely-watched Bank of Japan policy meeting. Thursday will also see the German ZEW Survey. Dealers look for that report to provide some possible insight into the IFO Survey (Friday). Germany is the dominant economy in Europe. Flash EZ PMI data will be released on Thursday. Canada sees Retail Sales data, a Bank of Canada decision and CPI data. No change in Canadian rates is expected. Australian quarterly CPI data are awaited as well. A number of other important items are also due. For additional items and detail (dates, times, data estimates) visit the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum as key items are released.

-- John M. Bland,

P.S. GVI Inner Circle Special!!!

Get access to the GVI Inner Circle at no charge for the rest of the year - Only 5 spots available - First come, first serve - Non-US residents only for this offer - Send us an EMAIL for details.

HK [email protected] 10:10 GMT January 19, 2013
What kind of police? what is he charged with?
Aggravated assault and robbery LMAO!!!

If this is not an attempt of murder, so what is an attempt of murder.

And if the train would have run over the lady,THEN?

HK [email protected] 08:41 GMT January 19, 2013
NO BRAIN? or Stupid USA!!!
When those stupid idiots mayors and administrators will install sliding doors in the subway terminals.

Philadelphia Subway Attack Video: Woman Punched, Dragged, Pushed Ont

ed kw 08:18 GMT January 19, 2013
USD/YEN nice opportunity

all majors are week against the USD,and the dow up

ed kw 07:56 GMT January 19, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels

gbp/nzd support flipping to Resistance if it gets legs good for 200pips or more depends on a week gbp poss

HK [email protected] 07:04 GMT January 19, 2013
USD/YEN nice opportunity

Being less conservative BUY USD/YEN at any price above 90.50, as at 90.70 exists a long term Res. which may not be easy to breach after such a long run up.

HK [email protected] 06:55 GMT January 19, 2013
USD/YEN nice opportunity
Buy USD/YEN at [91,91.50] range(if seen) for possible several hundreds pips correction.

Seems the best opportunity on background of sell EUR/YEN already in action for anticipation for more drop in the Euro.


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