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Forex Forum Archive for 01/20/2013
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Syd 23:54 GMT January 20, 2013
Yen
Reply
ed kw 22:22 GMT cant be good , never know how these things transform
ed kw 22:32 GMT January 20, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels
ed kw 02:26 GMT January 15, 2013 Reply
that swiss cot the swiss shorts fell that was important//gbp/chf--eur/chf--jpy/chf--cad/chf--nzd/chf--aud/chf are all up
ed kw 03:47 GMT January 15, 2013 Reply
“SNB unwillingness to hike rates and ECB unwillingness to cut rates is also supporting EURCHF. Only later in February when investors worry about the next US fiscal cliff is the cross likely to be capped again”, suggested M.Mohi-uddin, Director of FX Strategies at the Swiss bank UBS.
jerusalem kb 22:30 GMT January 20, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels
Sell GBPAUD
Entry: 1.5148 Target: 1.4953-1.4834 Stop: 1.5250
sell pending order
Philadelphia Caba 22:19 GMT January 20, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels
with you on this one. bought on Friday before closing at 89.99. tentative s/l below 87 and target 95 ++
GVI Forex john bland 20:27 GMT January 20, 2013
Commitment of Traders Report
I like both COT charts. the light blue ones show the NET long currency positions vs. the USD and spot rates are in reverse order (When needed) to match the positions.
Initial standouts are 1) EUR positions have moved from short to square. 2) JPY shorts have steadily been winding down. 3) Crude longs are building as the price works higher. 4) Gold positions (long) and spots have been holding steady.
GVI Forex john bland 20:11 GMT January 20, 2013
Commitment of Traders Report
NEW COT Chart Series
COT Report NET Crude Positions through Tuesday.
COT Report NET Gold Positions through Tuesday.
GVI Forex john bland 20:10 GMT January 20, 2013
Commitment of Traders Report
NEW COT Charts NET Positions
COT Report NET EUR Positions. In the week ending on Tuesday,
COT Report NET JPY Positions. In the week ended Tuesday.
GVI Forex john bland 17:44 GMT January 20, 2013
Commitment of Traders Report
COT Report Gold Positions through Tuesday. Gold longs down small. Shorts are steady. Net still heavily long gold.
COT Report Crude Positions through Tuesday. Crude longs up slightly while shorts are down. Net market positioned heavily long.
Chennai 17:28 GMT January 20, 2013
Gold
Reply
what is the view on gold? whether it'll open in positive or negative mode?
GVI Forex john bland 17:25 GMT January 20, 2013
Historic BOJ Policy Decisions Tuesday. USDJPY 90 and higher risk? Active Calendar
Reply
- HIGH IMPACT
ITEMS: US- HOLIDAY
- Speculation abounds about what the BOJ will announce
Tuesday.
Press reports suggest the central bank will raise its inflation target
to 2.00% from 1.00% and increase its asset purchase s by JPY10
tln.
- Market speculation about a more aggessive program has been
mounting, but history suggests the BOJ does not like to surprise the
markets. There is a risk that traders will be disappointed by the
outcome of the meeting.
- There was a rport that and advisor to PM Abe has
recommended a target of 100 for USDJPY. The move to 90.00 has already
been a significant one.
- 10-yr JGB (Japnese Government Bond) yields have fallen
significantly heading into this historic meeting.
- BOJ Governor Shirakawa's term runs out in March and PM Abe
has
said he is klooking for a successor who will be strongly
committed to
boosting economic growth.
- The key EURUSD 20-day moving average is 1.3213. the 10-yr
bund is 1.62%, -6 bp. European burses are up. U.S. shares are up.
The U.S. 10-yr is 1.84%, -4bp.
- Key Far East bourses were largely higher. The 10-yr JGB is
0.75%
+1bp. the USDJPY 20-day average is 87.23. EURJPY 20-day average is
115.21.
dc CB 17:12 GMT January 20, 2013
Fed official alleges Geithner may have alerted banks to rate cut
What happened on Ayg 17, 2007 and why should anyone get worked up over the "Geithner Leak".
Friday Aug 17 was OpEx and the S&P Call/Puts Settled on the Open of the Cash Market. The Last Day to Trade was Aug 16.
Revisit the feeling of being really really screwed.
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dc CB 01:15 GMT August 23, 2007 Reply
One trader's POV on what happened last Friday morning. (You recall, SnP options last trade is Thurday, the settlement for cash is on the Open Price set Friday)
So the bears went for the knockout blow and loaded up on the short side for August expiration. In the S&P 500, the open interest in puts was 4 times larger than in calls, a very clear indication that the bears were playing for a quick, lethal shot that would push the market beyond a correction and into a bear market.
That’s why I contend Ben Bernanke earned his Street credibility on expiration Friday in August 2007. The Fed chairman showed he knows how markets work and how psychology moves markets. Had the bears won the day after the bulls made their stand, the mood would have continued to be very negative and the bears retained their dominance. But lowering the discount rate signaled the Fed’s active interest while leaving room for further action, a deft way to swing sentiment to neutral.
That move by Bernanke and a unanimous FOMC just over an hour before the opening meant there would be no saving the bears. As I told Sue Herrara that Friday on CNBC’s Power Lunch, “The Fed hit the bears with a body blow in the solar plexus, or perhaps even a little lower!”
The result was unanswerable, because those short positions in August S&P options priced on the first print of Google, Microsoft, IBM, eBay, and every other one of the stocks in the S&P 500. The settlement price was nearly 39 points above the previous close of the SPX.
The bears had been feasting on a 5.4 percent sell-off of Japan’s Nikkei 225, and the S&P futures were down over 20 points prior to Bernanke’s haymaker. But add that 20-point pre-market sell -off to the 39-point settlement and you get the idea of how powerful the punch was. The 60-point turnaround, from a potential windfall profit to a staggering loss, was one of the most telling blows ever delivered by the Fed.
Let’s look at the SPX’s August 1450 puts as one example. The puts closed the previous session (Thursday) at $33 per contract. (The SPX cash closed Thursday at roughly 1411, and normally the intrinsic value should have been closer to $39, but someone sold a large number just prior to the close, and by result these puts closed nearly $6 under parity. SPX options are European-style, and have to be exercised for their cash value on expiration.)
With the futures trading down 20 points 1 ½ hours prior to last Friday’s open, the owners of these puts were looking for the SPX to settle at roughly 1391 (1411 – 20 = 1391). At that settlement those puts would have been worth $59 (1450 puts granting the right to sell at 1450 – SPX settlement of 1391 = $59). Instead these puts priced out at ZERO, as the right to sell at 1450 was worthless given the 1450.11 settlement.
When you multiply the open interest of 110,000 contracts by 100 (each SPX option carries that 100 multiple) by $59, you see a swing over $649,000,000! So every put registered losses and every call up to that 1450 strike finished in-the-money.
Is the correction over and do we go back to a bull run? I can’t yet say, but the bears’ month of ruling the markets has been challenged. To extend the analogy, the ref has broken up the clinched pugilists so now it’s a renewed fight!
By: Jon "DRJ" Najarian
GVI Forex john bland 15:54 GMT January 20, 2013
Calendar
Reply
January 20, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, January 21.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: Mon- None
Monday
- Far East: No Major Data.
- Europe: No Major Data.
- North America: US- Holiday.
Tuesday
- Far East: JP- BOJ, Lead indicator.
- Europe: De- ZEW Survey, GB- CBI Dist Trades.
- North America: CA- Retail Sales. US- Existing Homes Sales, Richmond Fed.
Dillon AL 04:15 GMT January 20, 2013
Video
Weekly setup videos for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD
To access the videos > Click here
ed kw 03:39 GMT January 20, 2013
THE FED VS THE WORLD
Why Oil Prices Could Slide
For the last few years, energy prices have done well out of the gate in the first quarter. However, pressured equities will keep crude under pressure as well, so pay attention to the S&P 500 bias. For example, a close below 1400 could be bearish for oil, as most professional oil trades use the equities as an indicator. http://www.cnbc.com/id/100343461
dc CB 00:53 GMT January 20, 2013
THE FED VS THE WORLD
Reply
Inside this massive building is a mega-Kinkos machine printing billions of dollars each day. ($4.77 billion just on Friday which by month’s end should total $85 billion.) These dollars are bombarding stock markets with fresh liquidity feeding bulls against all odds and logic.
Our job is to go with this despite misgivings and all manner of poor news. As a strategist first and technician or timer second, we and most investors, must recognize the dynamic at work and adjust to it. Worrying about debt will be for another day and until its forced on politicians, bankers and markets. In the meantime, ain’t we got fun!
And, until this money printing activity stops, this will be the underlying theme until either confidence in the activity is lost or bulls have to proceed without a net.
Believe it or not there are pundits today discussing that retail sales increased .5% in November-December. Well, it’s the holidays and what would one expect? Dave's Daily
dc CB 00:33 GMT January 20, 2013
Fed official alleges Geithner may have alerted banks to rate cut
Reply
WASHINGTON - Sat Jan 19, 2013 1:28am EST
(Reuters) - In the summer of 2007, as storm clouds gathered over the world's financial system, then-New York Federal Reserve President Timothy Geithner allegedly informed the Bank of America and other banks about the possibility the U.S. central bank would lower one of its critical interest rates, according to a senior Fed official.
Jeffrey Lacker, the head of the Richmond Fed, originally raised the allegation during a Fed conference call in August 2007, and he stuck to his 5-year-old claim against the current U.S. treasury secretary in a statement provided to Reuters on Friday.
"From conversations I had prior to the video conference call on August 16, 2007, I was aware of discussions among a few large banks about borrowing from their discount windows to support the asset backed commercial paper market," Lacker said in the statement. "My understanding was that (New York Fed) President Geithner had discussed a reduction in the discount rate with these banks in connection with these initiatives."
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Comment from Max Keiser:
Aaron Swartz was caught... downloading documents (documents subsidized with public money to begin with) to place them into the public domain –--- He faced 35 yrs. hard time and killed himself "The only thing I've done is to try to help them understand..." T.Geitner
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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many more chart points