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Forex Forum Archive for 01/27/2013

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GVI Forex 23:51 GMT January 27, 2013
EURUSD and GBPUSD Weekly Setup Videos

See what Al is looking forward to in the week ahead

Click for Al's weekly EURUSD and GBPUSD setup videos

Sydney ACC 22:26 GMT January 27, 2013
January's Currency Story: JPY -- a DISCUSSION thread

We need to be cognisant of rhetoric emanating from Japan's neighbours.

The South Korean central bank governor was reported by Reuters as being critical of Japan's moves:

The Wall Street Journal reported last week that steps were being taken to protect small exporters:


The jawboning may ease as a consequence thereby generating profit taking or an easing in the pace of the yen's decline. All in all its likely the easy money environment is now behind us.

GVI Forex john bland 21:22 GMT January 27, 2013
January's Currency Story: JPY -- a DISCUSSION thread

If possible I would like to keep this thread running into the new week. There was an advisor to the Japanese PM Abe Saturday who said that the USDJPY 95.00 would be appropriate. All that tells me is that USDJPY has not yet risen enough for government officials. I have felt all along that 100 is a likely target. In any case this suggests USD may have further to go,

Any thoughts on this?

ed kw 19:25 GMT January 27, 2013

Mr. Orban wants to take out the bazooka and lower the interest rates despite relatively high inflation. But we love such dramatic policy actions as they give opportunities to make easy money. Forint is going to go down. How much that will depend on how strong the bazooka will be.

GVI Forex john bland 19:20 GMT January 27, 2013

January 27, 2013 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, January 28. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: AU- Holiday, US- CPI, DE- Durable Goods, Pending Homes Sales.

  • Far East: AU/NZ- Holiday.
  • Europe: No Major data.
  • North America: US- Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales, 2-yr.

ed kw 18:48 GMT January 27, 2013
Chart Points

usd/chf .9249 is th20day+th50day mov av and cot for swiss has shorts added looking for support from s/p for a retest 0.9100

GVI Forex john bland 18:18 GMT January 27, 2013
Japan deflation. Weak JPY policy persists. Mixed Eurozone influences

  • HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: AU- Holiday, US- CPI, DE- Durable Goods, Pending Homes Sales.
  • CURRENCY WARS: Japan continues to favor a weakening of the JPY as one of several means to encourage economic growth. Tokyo has no choice than to pursue all avenues for stimulating growth and will continue to do so. They are starting to encounter push back from players such as Germany. Keep in mind that currency values work  in pairs, so a weaker JPY means a stronger USD or Eur, etc. All countries at the present time are pursuing  policies to encourage economic growth.
  • At the end of last week, it was announced that Japanese December core CPI remained in contraction declining by -0.2% y/y. The BOJ still  has its work cut out to achieve its 2.0% inflation  target. Its our best guess that Tokyo is targeting a USDJPY level of around 100.00. That would work out to a rough devaluation of the JPY vs. the USD of 20-30% from previously prevailing  levels. We do not feel that Japan's major trading  partners will sit still for much more.
  • It is not always the case,  but strong economic growth has often lead to a stronger currency and vice-versa for weak growth.  Data from Europe remains mixed with stronger than forecast German IFO data on Friday reinforcing a robust ZEW survey earlier in the week. On the other hand, French flash manufacturing PMI were exceptionally weak,  while  U.K. advance 4Q12 GDP fell by -0.3% qq in 4Q12. This means that a triple-dip recession is possible. U.S. data recently have been mixed but generally stronger. 
  • The markets are currently trying to decipher the likely impact of repayments of special ECB LTRO funding for banks which will start this week. Depending on HOW the funds are repaid, the repayments could result in a tightening of ECB monetary policy.
  • The key EURUSD 20-day moving average is 1.3250. the 10-yr bund is 1.64%, +7 bp.  European bourses were higher. U.S. shares were up. The U.S. 10-yr  is 1.93%,  +9bp.
  • Key Far East bourses were mixed. The 10-yr JGB is 0.73%, 0bp. the USDJPY 20-day average is 88.25. EURJPY 20-day average is 116.82.

ed kw 16:41 GMT January 27, 2013
USD/CAD : Critical Point 1.0388

in time if us exports N gas this ca will move stronger and the cot is uncrowded this week but aud is a stong bull but the usa/yen can keep the usa/cad long, or is it inflation from the yen

GVI Forex john bland 15:59 GMT January 27, 2013
Chart Points
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands

Dillon AL 15:32 GMT January 27, 2013

Inflation can only rear its head if the pace of money velocity increases and that despite the degree of printing has not happened. You have to understand the relationship between debt and GDP to undertstand the modern day world of inflation

Haifa ac 14:25 GMT January 27, 2013

You make a good point

"more likely that inflation rears its ugly head"

the longer it is delayed--the sharpest will be the apparition.

Hong Kong Qindex 13:20 GMT January 27, 2013
USD/CAD : Critical Point 1.0388
Entry: Target: Stop:

USD/CAD : Critical Point 1.0388

The odds are in favor of maintaining a long position when the market is above 1.0030. Speculative buying interest will increase again when the market is trading above the critical point at 1.0388. Buy on dips is the preferred trading strategy.

USD/CAD : Monthly Cycle Charts

ed kw 08:25 GMT January 27, 2013
Inflation: While the low interest rates and monetary stimulus enacted by central banks across the world have not been inflationary as of now, as "easy money" continues, it becomes more and more likely that inflation rears its ugly head. While gold (used by many investors as a hedge against inflation) hasn't touched $1,800 in over a year, recent actions by central banks could change that.

HK [email protected] 05:30 GMT January 27, 2013
Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, stressful and mentally disturbed.

After admitting that the original plan(last Tuesday) of the BOJ is impossible(2% inflation target), and his backtraking on it, the politician squarely place on Shirakawa, that it was reached independently by the BOJ.

I think this guy will be blamed for if anything goes wrong, and he solely who is suppose to absorbed the responsibility for the BOJ decision
Poor Shirakawa.

Why? READ:

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Akira Amari said the Bank of Japan had “voluntarily” decided with the government to introduce a new inflation target in a bid to boost the world’s third-largest economy.

The new government in Tokyo, led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, has pushed the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to be more aggressive in its actions to battle nearly two decades of deflation and sluggish growth.

The BOJ on Tuesday unveiled a new inflation target of 2% and a massive program of asset purchases to pump money into the economy, sparking accusations that central bank independence had been compromised.
Looks like Japan democracy is turning into a sort of ....
Maybe the next they will handle "Shira" a revolver to....
and then all will be sorry for an accident that happened.

Hk Ab 03:44 GMT January 27, 2013
How much is 700 pips down from 91.19 hmmmm

As long as bc is still with us, that is good enough! He has already generouslly offered too much for all here!!!

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 03:33 GMT January 27, 2013
How much is 700 pips down from 91.19 hmmmm

Ab, bc is still tuning in but no clue why he has not been posting. I miss his keen insights as well.

hk ab 00:38 GMT January 27, 2013
How much is 700 pips down from 91.19 hmmmm

Jay/John, Is BC still with us in GVI? I hope we don't lose this Pearl of GVI.

HK [email protected] 00:11 GMT January 27, 2013
Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, stressful and mentally disturbed.
After succumbing to Abe's political pressure he was generous in following his master voice.

Later he realized that all his suggestions are nonsense, and that he compromised the BOJ independence+international criticism of his actions, so he could not sleep well for few night.
Out of guilt and shame he came out to admit that the BOJ targets are practically unattainable.

His next step to come: "HARAKIRI" Aouuutch!!!


Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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