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Forex Forum Archive for 11/1/2013

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


HK [email protected] 22:40 GMT November 1, 2013
China's Banks on Road to Financial Disaster
Reply   



China's big banks, bent on global expansion and enabled by light regulation, are on the road to financial disaster much like the crisis experienced in the West, predicts Simon Johnson, MIT Sloan professor and former IMF chief economist, in an article for Project Syndicate.


More on LINK:

LINK

GVI Forex john 20:00 GMT November 1, 2013
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex 19:59 GMT November 1, 2013
Week Ahead
Reply   
• ECB to remain on hold, but sharp drop in inflation raises risk of rate cut
• UK October services PMI forecast to soften, but to remain consistent with solid growth
• US GDP and labour market data watched, as confusion reigns over tapering debate

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - ECB BACK IN THE SPOTLIGHT

GVI Forex john 19:51 GMT November 1, 2013
Commitment of Traders Report
Reply   
CFTC has been keeping us in the dark but released another week of data today. See all the charts at the following two links

Commitment of Trader Report Charts Trader Positions: EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP

London Misha 18:48 GMT November 1, 2013
Hearing Kings Cross railway station in London is closed due to a security alert!
Reply   
Hearing Kings Cross railway station in London is closed due to a security alert!

GVI Forex john 18:34 GMT November 1, 2013
Fixed Income Snapshot

Late in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets have turned mostly mixed to lower on the day. Weaker U.S. prices have been in the lead. Share markets rmain mixed. Peripheral bond prices are stronger.


GVI Forex Blog 17:44 GMT November 1, 2013 Reply   
November 1 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, November 4. Updated: Trading Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JA- Holiday, EZ- PMIs. US- Factory Orders

GVI Forex Data Outlook for November 4, 2013

ed kw 17:01 GMT November 1, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

chf/jpy weekly chart on support trend line is 109.65 next tested/ tia

GVI Forex john 17:01 GMT November 1, 2013
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


November 1 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, November 4. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JA- Holiday, EZ- PMIs. US- Factory Orders

  • Far East: JA- Holiday.
  • Europe: EZ- Final PMIs
  • North America: US- Factory Orders


Direct links to primary data sources

ottawa ottawa 16:41 GMT November 1, 2013
EUR/USD to crater

would you consider around 1.3387, or going all the way to 1.32..?? thank you

USA ZEUS 16:07 GMT November 1, 2013
EUR/USD to crater



Clockwork.
Cheers!

Saar KaL 15:27 GMT November 1, 2013
China PMIs

2-3 Months of south in NDX

Saar KaL 15:22 GMT November 1, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

QQQ
Bought Puts
strikkkeee
78 dec

HK [email protected] 15:11 GMT November 1, 2013
Europe S. Mkts are not that impressed by the..
Reply   


Great Dow performance today.

Looks like the Dow will end in a (-) too

Saar KaL 15:06 GMT November 1, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Gold
Now short and staying that way
IMO Gold
is a buy this year
and 1150 IMO is the low for the coming year
I see 1800

AUDNZD is a buy for the year
just we need a correction to 1.1 area
from 1.1 to 1.08 ----------> 1.22 tgt

Saar KaL 15:00 GMT November 1, 2013
China PMIs

KW
I am Short and keeping till .9000 area

GVI Forex john 14:38 GMT November 1, 2013
U.S. FINAL Market PMI

Post- ISM PMI 10-yr yield 2.60% +5.3bp

Saar KaL 14:35 GMT November 1, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

NDX
crashing to 3150

ed kw 14:22 GMT November 1, 2013
China PMIs

copper orders aren't supportive sell aud/usa

ed kw 14:09 GMT November 1, 2013
U.S. FINAL Market PMI

GM. or car sails are strong USD

GVI Forex john 14:07 GMT November 1, 2013
U.S. FINAL Market PMI



U.S./Eurozone PMIs. U.S. PMI better than forecast, but diverging from the Markit PMI data. Employment PMI falls.

GVI Forex john 14:02 GMT November 1, 2013
U.S. FINAL Market PMI

Strong ISM PMI, but I'm not sure it is reliably predictive of the economy.

GVI Forex john 14:00 GMT November 1, 2013
U.S. FINAL Market PMI





ALERT
OCTOBER 2013 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI
56.4 vs. 55.1 exp. vs. 56.2 prev.

Mfg PMI Employment
53.2 vs. n/a exp. vs. 55.4 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Saar KaL 13:43 GMT November 1, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

IN My Books
this cable level 1.5930
is next week's high
IMO there is more south

Saar KaL 13:39 GMT November 1, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

eurusd
most likely range
1.3500 to 1.3770
(If volatility stays constant)

GVI Forex john 13:35 GMT November 1, 2013
Equity to EURUSD correlation

Third piece of the puzzle is the 10-yr note. Yield is TRYING to press higher 2.580% +3.3bp. I'm not convinced higher yields can hold. ISM PMI could be pivotal.

GVI Forex john 13:31 GMT November 1, 2013
Equity to EURUSD correlation
Reply   
Before the cash equity markets open you have to keep an eye on S&P futures. EURUSD test of 1.3500 came on a dip in S&P futures (ESe1.CMM) is my symbol for E-mini futures.

Saar KaL 13:16 GMT November 1, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

GBPCHF seems like a nice sell here

HK [email protected] 13:08 GMT November 1, 2013
Can't afford you anymore babe:(
Reply   



Families brace as billions in food stamp cuts set in

SAVEMORE:)

GVI Forex john 13:06 GMT November 1, 2013
U.S. FINAL Market PMI



U.S. final Markit Mfg PMI. Revised higher.

GVI Forex john 13:00 GMT November 1, 2013
U.S. FINAL Market PMI






ALERT
OCTOBER 2013 U.S. Markit FINAL Manufacturing PMI
51.8 vs. 51.1 exp. vs. 51.1 prelim


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 12:54 GMT November 1, 2013
U.S. FINAL Market PMI

CORRECTION

Prev and expected Market PMI 51.1 NOT 56.4

HK [email protected] 12:52 GMT November 1, 2013
Barclays suspends currency traders
Reply   


UK bank Barclays has suspended several traders as part of a probe into suggestions that currency markets could have been rigged, the BBC has learnt.

Barclays suspends currency traders

Saar KaL 12:44 GMT November 1, 2013
EUR is O.S.

this 1.3500 is tough call about what it will do next
anyways, I am buying EURJPY...so maybe will head north

would feel better to long around 1.33
I am staying away for eurusd pos for a while

Mtl JP 12:36 GMT November 1, 2013
U.S. FINAL Market PMI

Bullard - about ten minutes later - may extract more reaction pips from players than the PMI

GVI Forex john 12:32 GMT November 1, 2013
U.S. FINAL Market PMI
Reply   

HEADS-UP: Data (forum top)
EURUSD= 1.3520
GBPUSD= 1.5966
USDJPY= 98.34

US 10-yr= 2.58%
DE 10-yr= 1.68%
(Manually refresh forum to update Calendar)

Direct links to primary data sources

HK [email protected] 12:30 GMT November 1, 2013
EUR is O.S.




Possibly 1.3555 be retested B4 down more.

jkt-aye 12:27 GMT November 1, 2013
EUR is O.S.

RF...i still have some. do you want it ? lol

HK [email protected] 12:17 GMT November 1, 2013
EUR is O.S.



Needs a "bunker penetrating bomb sell" to go below 1.3500:)

Let's see.

HK [email protected] 12:15 GMT November 1, 2013
Two front support challenge.
Reply   


Euro 1.3500.

Gold 1313.

Gold will be better supported at 1300 vicinity, if seen.

ottawa ottawa 11:45 GMT November 1, 2013
EUR is O.S.



and the weekly

ottawa ottawa 11:44 GMT November 1, 2013
EUR is O.S.



after permission from
Floyd Upperman
Euro is far from being os

ottawa ottawa 11:39 GMT November 1, 2013
EUR is O.S.

I am for 1.3470 level before rebound !!!

Daily chart has heavy down candles...should see 1.34 level by Tues if not Mon.

HK [email protected] 11:35 GMT November 1, 2013
EUR is O.S.
Reply   


A rebound from 1.3500 level is very possible.

Karachi 10:29 GMT November 1, 2013
EUR/USD outlook
Reply   
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD outlook: Intraday 3613-29 is key level. Targets below are 3598, 3569, 3545, 3525, 3476 and 3452. Above targets are 3660, 3682, 3702 and 3731. Today’s sensible range is 3545-3682. If gold stays below 1328 and S&P stay below 1759, sensible range should be considered as 3476-3629. If USD/JPY remains below 98.29, positive momentum might be observed. If EUR/GBP is trending down below 8495 and GBP/USD is in bullish mode, EUR/USD might remain under pressure or vice versa. If the market goes out of these ranges stay away from it as that will be an abnormal behavior from intraday trading perspective.


From trend follow-up perspective important closing rates are > or < areas of 3682, 3545 and 3476. Note: To know the strategies and directions to trade, maintain your portfolio at Shivani Financial. The analysis given is not trading signals but the market picture.

Shivani Financial Consultancy for Interest Free Forex Trading

Karachi 10:28 GMT November 1, 2013
GBP/USD outlook
Reply   
GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

GBP/USD outlook: Intraday 6028-43 is key level. Targets below are 6014-6000, 5985, 5959, 5942, 5924 and 5902. Above targets are 6057, 6078, 6092, 6115, 6153-64 and 6178. Today’s sensible range is 5985-6092/6115. If gold stays below 1328 and EUR/USD stays below its key level of 3613-29, sensible range should be considered as 5942-6057. If USD/JPY remains below 98.29, positive momentum might be observed. If EUR/GBP is trending above 8495 and EUR/USD is in bullish mode, GBP/USD might remain under pressure or vice versa. If the market goes out of these ranges stay away from it as that will be an abnormal behavior from intraday trading perspective.


From trend follow-up perspective important closing rates are > or < areas of 6014, 6057, 6108 and 6164. Note: To know the strategies and directions to trade, maintain your portfolio at Shivani Financial. The analysis given is not trading signals but the market picture.

Shivani Financial Consultancy for Interest Free Forex Trading

ottawa ottawa 10:21 GMT November 1, 2013
EURUSD 13555

any take on cable...1.5925 ???? a possibility ?? if when Eur<=1.3470 is breached ?

HK [email protected] 10:18 GMT November 1, 2013
Bismilllllaaaahhh 1.3500 has practically reached.
Reply   


eur
HK [email protected] 01:52 GMT 11/01/2013


Nothing to worry next target support at about 1.3500.

Amman wfakhoury 10:10 GMT November 1, 2013
EURUSD 13555

Close 1 hr bar below 13523

Hasselt Ed 10:10 GMT November 1, 2013
EURUSD 13555

Some people don't get that, especially when you have a nationality, religion or skin color. I think it's time for Jay to set yet another precedent and toss idiots out of here.

ottawa ottawa 10:03 GMT November 1, 2013
EURUSD 13555

do you mean close on hour bar or daily...

jkt-aye 09:57 GMT November 1, 2013
EURUSD 13555

the most happiness always happen when you helping others.

UK vgf 09:45 GMT November 1, 2013
EURUSD 13555

Hey FAKmeister...It is good that you don't post your picture with your posts as you may be placed on the sexual offenders register...lol...

Amman wfakhoury 09:41 GMT November 1, 2013
EURUSD 13555

The close below 13523 means 13470 is coming

Lahore FM 09:38 GMT November 1, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Buy USDCHF
Entry: 0.8942 Target: Stop: entry

Lahore FM 13:43:21 GMT - 10/25/2013

Sell EURGBP
Entry: 0.8522 Target: Stop: 0.8565.
short eurgbp once again 0.8522 with 0.8565 stop for 80.

long usdchf 0.8942.sl 0.8880
--
0.9114 partial close for long usdchf 0.8942 now.

hk ab 09:36 GMT November 1, 2013
yen
Reply   
The tame action of dlr/jpy looks very suspicious.

GVI Forex john 09:32 GMT November 1, 2013
United Kingdom Manufacturing PMI



U.K. Manufacturing PMI weaker than expected.

GVI Forex john 09:28 GMT November 1, 2013
United Kingdom Manufacturing PMI
Reply   




-- ALERT --

OCTOBER 2013 GB Manufacturing PMI
56.0 vs. 56.4 exp. vs. 56.7 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 09:13 GMT November 1, 2013
Chinese PMIs improve. EURUSD lower
Reply   

Spot
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
 EURUSD  1.3535
 1.3649
 U.S. 2.56% +1bp
  North America:Higher
 EURJPY 132.93
 133.60
 Bund 1.67% -3bp
 DE: DAX: Lower
 GBPUSD 1.6003
 1.6078
 GILT 2.61% -2bp
 GB: FTSE: Lower
 USDJPY 98.23   97.88
  JGB 0.60% +1bp  Asia Close Mixed

HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: EZ- Holiday, GB- PMI, US- PMIs

  • The tone of the USD has decisively improved after the EURUSD traded below its 20-day moving average (1.3649)  yesterday. Prices in prime fixed income markets are mostly higher. Weaker U.S. prices are notable on a revised Fed outlook.  Share markets are mixed to weaker. Peripheral bond prices are stronger, this all follows the more hawkish than expected Fed policy statement Wednesday. The big surprise Thursday were much stronger than expected Chicago and Milwaukee regional PMIs.

  • Some are now revising higher their forecasts for national U.S. PMIs today.  Market observers still do not expect a Fed tapering before the March 2014 Fed meeting.

  • The EURUSD is lower also following German September retail sales data which were weaker than expected. They came on the heels of mildly weaker than expected employment data and a softer than expected IFO survey. A slowing German economy would be a EURUSD negative.

  • Chinese October PMI data remained on an improving path and gave the AUD a lift  See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.  

  • Friday is a  holiday in the Eurozone. U.K. and U.S. October PMI reports are scheduled for release..

  • For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.

GVI Forex Blog 09:12 GMT November 1, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: EZ- Holiday, GB- PMI, US- PMIs The tone of the USD has decisively improved after the EURUSD traded below its 20-day moving average (1.3649) yesterday. Prices in prime fixed income markets are mostly higher. Weaker U.S. prices are notable on a revised Fed outlook. Share markets are mixed to weaker. Peripheral bond prices are stronger, this all follows the more hawkish than expected Fed policy statement Wednesday. The big surprise Thursday were much stronger than expected Chicago and Milwaukee regional PMIs.

Chinese PMIs improve. EURUSD lower

Saar KaL 08:53 GMT November 1, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

keeping my audusd shorts till 0.9000

EURAUD Longs till 1.47

CHFJPY Longs till 113

AUDCAD Shorts till 0.9350
NDX shorts till 3100

GVI Forex john 08:48 GMT November 1, 2013
China PMIs improving
Reply   


EARLIER: China NBS PMIs NBS up both improving.

ottawa ottawa 08:46 GMT November 1, 2013
EURUSD 13555

wonderful call...thanks man

Saar KaL 08:42 GMT November 1, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

eurgbp...wants .8750 + from here IMO

GVI Forex john 08:42 GMT November 1, 2013
China PMIs
Reply   




Earlier
NBS: 51.4 vs. 51.2 exp vs. 51.1 prev.
HSBC: 50.9 vs. 50.9 exp. vs. 50.9 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

height="30">

GVI Forex john 08:37 GMT November 1, 2013
Fixed Income Snapshot
Reply   
Early in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are mostly higher. Weaker U.S. prices are notable on a revived Fed outlook. Share markets are mixed to weaker. Peripheral bond prices are stronger.


Saar KaL 08:10 GMT November 1, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Not trading Oil...But seems Like should correct

jkt abel 07:45 GMT November 1, 2013
EURUSD 13555

agree with that, i will try some long in the area 1.3470-1.3520 for 1.39-1.40 target, stop below 1.3440

Saar KaL 07:40 GMT November 1, 2013
USD/YEN

Buying and adding eurjpy
and gbpjpy

audcad shorts

and usdjpy long

Amman wfakhoury 07:32 GMT November 1, 2013
EURUSD 13555

And now consolidates @ 13555 and preparing for 100-120 pips
move ...any rise above 13555 will return to it ...until new direction

Singapore SGFXTrader 07:28 GMT November 1, 2013
EURUSD 13555

IMHO - Eurusd going to 1.37 then revisit 1.38. Will touch 1.40 before 31 Dec 2013.

Based on news from a reliable source.

cannes elton 06:37 GMT November 1, 2013
EURUSD 13555

very nice call- bravo- and now pls?

HK [email protected] 04:50 GMT November 1, 2013
YEN: Sometimes a bit of fundamentals and market psychology, will do!
Reply   


HK [email protected] 16:36 GMT 10/31/2013

By now 98.0 support has rejected the downtrend.

Formidable supports eventually are to be broken, especially that some business interest in Japan need a strong yen at least for few days.

So a break below 98 should not surprise:)

Maybe tomorrow?

Amman wfakhoury 04:35 GMT November 1, 2013
EURUSD 13555

Amman wfakhoury 18:30 GMT 10/31/2013
13555 confirmed will be reached .
any rise above 13598 will return to 13598 .
if rise above 13598 then 1 hr bar closed below 13598 then 13555 will be reached.

Act accordingly ...forget what others say
-------------------------------
13555 reached ,,forget what others say

Hong Kong AceTrader 04:09 GMT November 1, 2013
AceTrader Nov 1 : Daily Outlook on Asian exotic USD/IDR
Reply   
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11330
01 Nov 2013 01:28GMT

Usd's rebound fm Fri's 10935 low suggests fall
fm Sep's high at 11660 has made a temp. low there n
retrace. to 11455, then 11520 is seen.

Buy at market with stop as indicated n only below
11270 aborts n risks weakness to 11000.


STRATEGY : Buy at market

OBJECTIVE : 11450

STOP-LOSS : 11280

RES : 11455/11520/11660

SUP : 11270/11000/10935

HK [email protected] 02:20 GMT November 1, 2013
YEN
Reply   


To crack 98.0 needs a brute force.

There are some financial interests in Japan, which can do it for their purpose, though is not fitting long term the Abenomics policy.
Worth watching.

HK [email protected] 01:52 GMT November 1, 2013
eur



Nothing to worry next target support at about 1.3500.

hk ab 01:47 GMT November 1, 2013
eur
Reply   
hk ab 22:42 GMT October 24, 2013
EUR/USD to crater: Reply
Zeus, I second your positions, but my guts is limited. after 1.3760, next extry 1.3850.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

This is why I always SECOND Zeus!

hk ab 01:47 GMT November 1, 2013
eur
Reply   
hk ab 22:42 GMT October 24, 2013
EUR/USD to crater: Reply
Zeus, I second your positions, but my guts is limited. after 1.3760, next extry 1.3850.
-----------------------------------------------------------------

This is why I always SECOND Zeus!

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:33 GMT November 1, 2013
AceTrader Nov 1 : Euro tumbles on sharp fall in euro zone inflation and record high unemployment
Reply   
Market Review - 31/10/2013 17:37GMT

Euro tumbles on sharp fall in euro zone inflation and record high unemployment

The single currency tumbled against other major currencies on Thursday due to weak euro zone data showing that inflation in the euro zone declined sharply to the lowest level in four years in October together with the record high unemployment rate in September, adding speculation that the European Central Bank may ease monetary policy.

Euro zone unemployment rate in September came in at 12.2%, higher than economists' forecast of 12.0%, previous reading is revised to 12.2%; euro zone CPI estimate in October came in at 0.7% y/y, lower than the forecast of 1.1%.

The single currency met selling interest at 1.3739 in Asian session and ratcheted lower in European session after the release of weak euro zone data. Euro tumbled to 1.3632 ahead of New York open and weakened further due to dollar's broad-based strength after the release of stronger-than-expected Chicago PMI (65.9 versus forecast of 55.0). The pair nose-dived to a session low at 1.3575 near New York afternoon.

Versus Japanese yen, the greenback met selling interest at 98.57 in Australia and then ratcheted lower in European session. The dollar further dropped to a session low at 98.08 in New York afternoon before recovering.

Although the British pound dropped to a session low at 1.6006 ahead of European open, failure to penetrate Wednesday’s low at 1.5999 prompted profit-taking. Cable ratcheted higher in European session and rose to a session high at 1.6070 on short-covering in New York morning.

In other news, Bank of Japan's semiannual report stated 'Japan's economy likely to continue to expand at pace exceeding its potential; BoJ to maintain its QE programme until needed to stably achieve 2% inflation; BoJ ready to make necessary policy adjustments while scrutinising upside, downside risks to economy, prices; CPI likely to reach BoJ's 2% target around end of fiscal 2014 through fiscal 2015.’

On the data front, U.S. initial jobless claim came in at 340K, worse than the forecast of 339K. Italy unemployment rate in September came in at 12.5%, worse than the forecast of 12.2%, previous reading was revised to 12.4%. Germany Gfk consumer confidence in November came in at 7.0, versus the forecast of 7.2.

Data to be released on Friday:

Australia PPI, China manufacturing PMI, HSBC Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss PMI, U.K. manufacturing PMI, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing and construction spending on Friday. France financial market is closed due to public holiday.

Brock Thor 00:21 GMT November 1, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

Hmm...1.3534 possible support.
Might set that as a possible/interim Tp.
And assess sentiment when close.

Like the sound of that 1.2797 Critical point.

Thanks Dr. Quinn

Plus it's close to the World Famous Zeus 1.2777.

Brock Thor 00:06 GMT November 1, 2013
DXY- dollarindex
Reply   
DXY up a little. Nice
Stocks down a little. Nice
My short trade Eur/Usd +117.
I shorted at 1.37010 gonna stay short until sentiment changes a little.
Or 1.300 comes in.

Great deer hunting saw small ones.
4 pt buck got his butt kicked by a big buck-now he got one side broke off . Nice
Big buck will come soon.
Great World Series.
Good luck.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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