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Forex Forum Archive for 11/04/2013

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hk ab 22:30 GMT November 4, 2013
gold
Reply   
too busy.

Quick msg: Extreme Weak XAG and Crude not good for XAU.

GL for those shorts, GL.

Paris ib 21:45 GMT November 4, 2013
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data

Whooaaaa nh... 24% of GDP? Nice one. Still the market is fixated on the taper issue, totally fixated. Other issues may eventually get noticed but probably not this week.

Livingston nh 21:30 GMT November 4, 2013
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data

IB - the Fed controls the TAPER - ONLY // a BIG deal but Health Care is about to expand to 24% of GDP - this increase exceeds the US debt / GDP increase that the elites/experts have worried about

The Good News is its locally provided - the Bad News is absent growth other parts of GDP will be lower

The debt limit/budget shenangins pale in comparison - those two are mere "so what? who cares?" issues

HK [email protected] 21:05 GMT November 4, 2013
USD/CAD



Almost hit at 1.04250(1.04240) my suggested target for Y.day.
(HK [email protected] 14:42 GMT 11/04/2013)

It may move back below 1.0400, but regarding the O.S. situation, it is a trade for those who like to play with fire:)

GVI Forex john 20:42 GMT November 4, 2013
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Paris ib 20:37 GMT November 4, 2013
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data

CB.... the FED controls everything (or is trying to).

GVI Forex john 20:27 GMT November 4, 2013
Chart Points
Reply   
Pre-Close Trading Points...
more chart points About Pivot Points





dc CB 20:15 GMT November 4, 2013
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data

almost every day

not almost

EVERY DAY

Paris ib 20:15 GMT November 4, 2013
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data

Fabulous, that's even worse. I count five press conferences: January, April, June, September and December. What a complete farce this is though. Taper, no taper, if so how much and when.... all data dependent and dependent on data that hasn't got a hope of being met in the short term and yet here we are all hanging off every little nuance.

dc CB 20:13 GMT November 4, 2013
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data



GVI Forex john 19:08 GMT

It's always worth taking a look at the POMO schedule for the week. Note that this week has money coming in almost every day, large today and vely vely large on Fri.

also note the chart posted.
This "Bull" market has plenty to go percentagewise and timewise...esp with the 85Bil/mo added.

POMO Sched for Nov

GVI Forex john 20:08 GMT November 4, 2013
Eurozone Final PMI mfg data mixed. Active week in store
Reply   

Spot
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
 EURUSD  1.3510
 1.3642
 U.S. 2.59% -2bp
  North America:Mixed
 EURJPY 133.26
 133.74
 Bund 1.69% 0bp
 DE: DAX: Higher
 GBPUSD 1.5962
 1.6065
 GILT 2.64% -2bp
 GB: FTSE: higher
 USDJPY 98.63   98.03
  JGB 0.60% 0bp  Asia Close Lower

HIGH IMPACT ITEMS:  AU- RBA Decision, GB- Service PMI, EZ- PPI, US- Service PMI

  • The tone of the USD has decisively improved now that  the EURUSD is traded below its 20-day moving average (1.3645). Its psychological tipping point is 1.3500  Based on the data we have been seeing recently, we feel the odds of a Fed tapering in December are small. The next probable opportunity for a Fed tapering would be the March 2014 Fed meeting.

  • Revisions to Eurozone October flash PMI reports have been modest today. The data suggest the performance of the EZ economy remains sluggish. See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.  

  • Thiursday features a European Central Bank meeting. It is logical to assume that the EURUSD will be under pressure ahead of the meeting. We see no reason to cut the refi rate as its impact would only be mildly psychological. Somehow I think the preference at the ECB might be for "extraordinary actions" of some type. The ECB faces a real dilemma with the Southern tier of Europe virtually in a depression. Germany has started to slow as well..

  • The data schedule for the week sees a number of PMI releases. Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England and European Central Bank will announce policy decisions.  Another major event will be the release of October U.S. Employment data on Friday. Canadian October Employment data are due for release on that session as well.

  • For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.

GVI Forex john 20:07 GMT November 4, 2013
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data

More importantly, many feel the Fed will only make major decisions at meetings when there is a press conference. There are only four such meetings per year.

GVI Forex Blog 20:04 GMT November 4, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: AU- RBA Decision, GB- Service PMI, EZ- PPI, US- Service PMI The tone of the USD has decisively improved now that the EURUSD is traded below its 20-day moving average (1.3645). Its psychological tipping point is 1.3500 Based on the data we have been seeing recently, we feel the odds of a Fed tapering in December are small. The next probable opportunity for a Fed tapering would be the March 2014 Fed meeting.

Eurozone Final PMI mfg data mixed. Active week in store

Paris ib 20:03 GMT November 4, 2013
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data

One in December, one end January, one in March. For now, at least, NOTHING else matters.

FOMC schedule

Paris ib 20:00 GMT November 4, 2013
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data

... pin pr.ick..... do you think you might revise your censoring policy?

Paris ib 19:58 GMT November 4, 2013
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data

It seems to me John that the market has been absolutely hypnotized by the Taper Issue. The data no longer matters per se. All that matters is how the data is perceived to impact the FED's decision to taper (or not) and when and by how much. The focus has narrowed to a pin censored. It's almost silly. So much for 'transparency' and 'communication'. All we get to do is second guess the FED and all they do is hint and tease. I don't see how we can get out of this until we have some real clarity and possible some action. What have we got? A FOMC in December and then when? March? Good grief.

GVI Forex john 19:08 GMT November 4, 2013
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data

I have no good explanation for why forex trading has been so slow today. I understand that volume in equity trading is exceptionally slow as well. All I know is that this usually does not last for long. This is shaping up to be an active week on the data front with the pressure mounting on the ECB to do something about the weak European economy on Thursday. Many are looking for a lousy U.S. employment reading on Friday.

GVI Forex john 16:28 GMT November 4, 2013
Fixed Income Snapshot

Late in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are mixed to higher. Global equities are now mixed. Peripheral bond prices are lower.


GVI Forex Blog 15:54 GMT November 4, 2013 Reply   
November 4. 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, Novemeber 5. Updated: Trading Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: AU- RBA Decision, GB- Service PMI, EZ- PPI, US- Service PMI Far East: AU- PBA Decision

GVI Forex Data Outlook for November 5, 2013

GVI Forex john 15:52 GMT November 4, 2013
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply   


November 4. 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, Novemeber 5. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: AU- RBA Decision, GB- Service PMI, EZ- PPI, US- Service PMI

  • Far East: AU- PBA Decision
  • Europe: CH- CPI. GB- Service PMI, EZ- PPI.
  • North America: US- Service PMI, API.


GVI Forex john 15:01 GMT November 4, 2013
Factory Orders




ALERT
AUGUST & SEPTEMBER 2013 U.S. Factory Orders
1.70% v 1.80% exp. v -2.40% (R -2.80%) prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

height="30">


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 14:49 GMT November 4, 2013
Factory Orders

August and September data due to be released (due to shutdown).

HK [email protected] 14:48 GMT November 4, 2013
HE SAID...Let's see
Reply   


Uncle Samís Image May Have Taken a Hit But Corporate America Is Stronger Than Ever: Smith

HE SAID

GVI Forex john 14:46 GMT November 4, 2013
Factory Orders
Reply   

HEADS-UP: Data (forum top)
EURUSD= 1.3497
GBPUSD= 1.5960
USDJPY= 98.63
USDCAD= 1.0410

US 10-yr= 2.60%
DE 10-yr= 1.66%
(Manually refresh forum to update Calendar)

Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john 14:43 GMT November 4, 2013
Looking Ahead

be the most likely outcome of its meeting. The PMI Service report on Tuesday could impact its thinking. The quarterly BOE inflation report is on November 13. We should hear a lot about their current thinking on that day. The BOE has now been locked into a pattern where they only make major policy decisions on the months when there is an inflation report.

This pattern may be developing now at the Fed. Many assume the Fed can only make major policy decisions on dates where there is a press conference scheduled. We don't think that was their intention, but...

HK [email protected] 14:42 GMT November 4, 2013
USD/CAD
Reply   


Likely heading to 1.04250 Res.

GVI Forex john 14:27 GMT November 4, 2013
Looking Ahead
Reply   
Thursday features a European Central Bank meeting. It is logical to assume that the EURUSD will be under pressure ahead of the meeting. We see no reason to cut the refi rate as its impact would only be mildly psychological. Somehow I think the preference at the ECB might be for "extraordinary actions" of some type. The ECB faces a real dilemma with the Southern tier of Europe virtually in a depression. Germany has started to slow as well..

ottawa ottawa 13:30 GMT November 4, 2013
Eur/Usd short

too bad you closed all short positions...1.3387 will be breached.

hk ab 13:03 GMT November 4, 2013
gold
Reply   
LOL many must be wondering why gold dropped to 1306 and bounce to 1322 now.....

close half of long from 1307 at 1321. keep rest with some trail stop.........

Days of wonder....

GVI Forex john 12:55 GMT November 4, 2013
Trading Points -- Pivots
Reply   


HK [email protected] 12:42 GMT November 4, 2013
USD/CAD may hit the low of the day.




The only fundamental I see at the moment pressurizing the USD/CAD is the almost equal bulls/bears ratio in the cot report, otherwise no obvious one.
But for the time USD/CAD is a bit O.S.

One needs Eur to rise, or any data, to add to the downtrend of the pair.

jkt-aye 12:03 GMT November 4, 2013
USD/CAD may hit the low of the day.

is it heading toward 1.0375/1.0350 instead of 1.0430/1.0460 ?
have a nice pips

HK [email protected] 11:43 GMT November 4, 2013
USD/CAD may hit the low of the day.
Reply   
.

Brock Thor 11:09 GMT November 4, 2013
Eur/Usd short
Reply   
Closed all positions.
Eur/Usd took profit 195 pips.

HK [email protected] 11:02 GMT November 4, 2013
EUR
Reply   


Heavily O.B. by Specs, so price rise could be a very big problem this time.

Paris ib 10:12 GMT November 4, 2013
Willie - Kind dollar dying?

Did that come out on Halloween? :-)

GVI Forex john 09:43 GMT November 4, 2013
Eurozone Final PMI mfg data mixed. Active week in store
Reply   

Spot
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
 EURUSD  1.3507
 1.3645
 U.S. 2.61% -1bp
  North America:Higher
 EURJPY 133.30
 133.66
 Bund 1.69% 0bp
 DE: DAX: Higher
 GBPUSD 1.5949
 1.6072
 GILT 2.65% -1bp
 GB: FTSE: higher
 USDJPY 98.69   97.95
  JGB 0.60% 0bp  Asia Close Lower

HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Factory Orders

  • The tone of the USD has decisively improved now that  the EURUSD is traded below its 20-day moving average (1.3645). Its psychological tipping point is 1.3500  Based on the data we have been seeing recently, we feel the odds of a Fed tapering in December are small. The next probable opportunity for a Fed tapering would be the March 2014 Fed meeting.

  • Revisions to Eurozone October flash PMI reports have been modest today. The data suggest the performance of the EZ economy remains sluggish. See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.  

  • This week features a European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. No rate changes are expected, but we must assume their policy decision will be data-dependent. ECB President recently has expressed concerns about the weakness of the Eurozone economy. Furthermore, the recent strength of the EUR has not been helpful. Additional unconventional easing measures are not out of the realm of possible actions.

  • The data schedule for the week sees a number of PMI releases. Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of England and European Central Bank will announce policy decisions.  Another major event will be the release of October U.S. Employment data on Friday. Canadian October Employment data are due for release on that session as well.

  • For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.

GVI Forex Blog 09:43 GMT November 4, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Factory Orders The tone of the USD has decisively improved now that the EURUSD is traded below its 20-day moving average (1.3645). Its psychological tipping point is 1.3500 Based on the data we have been seeing recently, we feel the odds of a Fed tapering in December are small. The next probable opportunity for a Fed tapering would be the March 2014 Fed meeting.

Eurozone Final PMI mfg data mixed. Active week in store

GVI Forex john 09:14 GMT November 4, 2013
Fixed Income Snapshot
Reply   
Early in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are mixed to steady. Global equities are now mixed to higher. Peripheral bond prices are mixed.

GVI Forex john 09:12 GMT November 4, 2013
Eurozone Final PMIs



EZ, GE and FR final Mfg PMI. Germany Revised up. France down from flash estimate....


GVI Forex john 09:10 GMT November 4, 2013
Eurozone Final PMIs



EZ final Mfg PMI. unrevised, basically flat


GVI Forex john 09:02 GMT November 4, 2013
Eurozone Final PMIs
Reply   



ALERT
OCTOBER 2013 EZ- Final MFG PMI
51.3 vs. 51.3 (flash) exp. vs. 51.3
France
49.1 vs. 49.4 (flash) exp. vs. 49.4
Germany
51.7 vs. 51.5 (flash) exp. vs. 51.5



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Hong Kong AceTrader 07:49 GMT November 4, 2013
AceTrader Nov 4: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR
Reply   
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11370
04 Nov 2013 05:44GMT

Usd's rebound fm Oct's low at 10935 suggests cor
rection fm Sep's 11660 high has formed a temporary
low there n retrace. to 11455, then 11520 is seen.

Trade fm long side with stop as indicated n only
below 11270 aborts n risks weakness to 11000.


STRATEGY : Long at 11330

POSITION : Long at 11330

OBJECTIVE : 11450

STOP-LOSS : 11330

RES : 11400/11455/11520

SUP : 11305/11270/11000

Stockholm Max 07:42 GMT November 4, 2013
Willie - Kind dollar dying?
Reply   
Since over a decade calling for the Chinese to take over - since over a decade calling for the king dollar to die - this latest piece (http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1383336180.php) contains some facts (JPM) which seem again to have some merits, even Rick Ackerman has a reference to this newsletter - but, honestly, is it really more than just another hype driven newsletter to get some more attention?

Sinclair, Willie, Turk and Sprott - hyped via KWN - the four golden musketeers - on completely lost ground?
Panicking with the threat of Gold moving down to below 1K - and King Dollar up to parity with EURUSD?

Or will they finally win - in 2016 when some cycles researchers (i.e. Armstrong) predict a major economic peak / crash?

Jim Willie's latest

Saar KaL 07:27 GMT November 4, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

another good short is audnzd
should south to 1.1 area

Saar KaL 07:12 GMT November 4, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

If you do something today
I suggest you accumulate AUDUSD Shorts
tgt 0.90 to .8840

bali sja 07:08 GMT November 4, 2013
EURUSD 100 pips and 300 pips move

if this is a healthy correction, then the next target is 1.40-1.42 by december

Singapore SGFXTrader 06:53 GMT November 4, 2013
EURUSD 100 pips and 300 pips move

Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.3460 Target: 1.37 Stop: 1.34

I reckon Eurusd is in consolidation phase. Might see 1.37 in a week's time

GVI Forex Blog 06:26 GMT November 4, 2013 Reply   
- China non-manufacturing PMI out on Saturday rising to 14-month high. >- China premier Li cautions on the risk of slowing economy to the labor sector, while Pres Xi is more upbeat, noting domestic co

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Rising China non-manufacturing PMI and strong Australia retail sales boost AUD ahead of tomorrow's RBA decision - Source TradeTheNews.com

HK [email protected] 05:43 GMT November 4, 2013
EURUSD 100 pips and 300 pips move



Cryptic as usual.

Amman wfakhoury 05:16 GMT November 4, 2013
EURUSD 100 pips and 300 pips move
Reply   
After hitting my target 13470 , is preparing for 100 pips move for daytraders and 300 pips for shortterm traders.

HK [email protected] 02:57 GMT November 4, 2013
EUR
Reply   



The risk to the upside is increasing.
Being able to hold the prices at current level for several hours more, may risk of a strong return to 1.3660.

Hong Kong AceTrader 02:13 GMT November 4, 2013
AceTrader Nov 4 :Dollar strengthens broadly on strong U.S. data
Reply   
Market Review - 02/11/2013 01:41GMT

Dollar strengthens broadly on strong U.S. data

Dollar strengthened broadly against its major peer currencies on strong U.S. Markit PMI and ISM manufacturing data, which fuelled speculation that the Fed may start tapering stimulus sooner than expected.

U.S. ISM manufacturing in October came in at 56.4, stronger than the economists' forecast of 55.0. U.S. Markit PMI in October came in at 51.8, better than the expectation of 51.1.

The single currency met selling interest at 1.3590 in Asian trading and ratcheted lower in European session. Euro later tanked to a session low at 1.3478 (Reuters) in New York afternoon due to strong U.S. economic data.

Versus Japanese yen, the greenback initially fell to a session low at 97.80 in Asian trading but renewed buying interest there lifted price higher in European session due to the rebound of Nikkei futures. Dollar further rose above Thursday's top at 98.69 to session high at 98.86 in New York morning after the release of strong U.S. economic data before stabilizing.

The British pound met selling interest at 1.6046 in Australian morning and then tanked to 1.5953 in European session in part due to the release of weaker-than-expected U.K. manufacturing PMI in October which came in at 56.0, worse than the forecast of 56.4, previous reading was revised to 56.3. Cable later fell to an intra-day low of 1.5908 in New York afternoon due to dlr's broad-based strength on strong U.S. economic data.

In other news, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis's President James Bullard says 'any decision to scale bank bond buying will be data-dependent; likelihood of tapering will continue to rise as labor market continues to show cumulative improvement; would like to see inflation come back up toward target before tapering bond buying; inflation continues to run very low in the U.S. economy; will not speculate on a taper decision in December, says Fed should keep its options open at every meeting.'

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Charles L. Plooser says 'could support setting a limit for bond-buying program; could announce a dollar size to QE3 that would halt it soon; "very high" hurdle for increasing rate of bond buying.'

Data to be released next week:

Australia retail sales, house price index, Italy manufacturing PMI, France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, Sentix investor confidence, U.K. construction PMI, U.S. factory orders, durable goods on Monday. Japan financial market is closed due to public holiday.

Australia RBA rate decision, China HSBC Markit service PMI, Swiss CPI, U.K. BRC retail sales, service PMI, EU PPI, Canada trade balance, exports, imports, U.S. Redbook retail sales, ISM non-manufacturing on Tuesday.

New Zealand unemployment rate, employment change, Australia trade balance, U.K. BRC shop price index, industrial production, manufacturing production, Italy service PMI, France service PMI, Germany service PMI, factory orders, EU service PMI, retail sales, Canada building permits, Ivey PMI, U.S. leading indicators on Wednesday.

Australia employment change, unemployment change, Japan leading indicators, U.K. Lloyds employment confidence, BOE rate decision, BOE asset purchase target, Germany industrial production, ECB rate decision, U.S. GDP, personal consumption, PCE core, jobless claims on Thursday.

China trade balance, export, import, Swiss unemployment rate, retail sales, U.K. trade balance, Germany current account, export, import, trade balance, France current account, trade balance, industrial production, manufacturing production, Canada housing starts, net change in unemployment, unemployment rate, U.S. personal income, personal consumption, PCE index, PCE core, non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, University of Michigan consumer confidence on Friday.

Mtl JP 02:08 GMT November 4, 2013
Forex Trading Themes for the Week

ok, if Yellen is in charge = we know who to give credit / blame

jkt-aye 01:40 GMT November 4, 2013
Eur/Usd

is it going to 13540 then 13380 or straight away toward 13575/13640 ? have a nice pips.

 




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AAEZ/CH- Holiday
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