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Forex Forum Archive for 11/09/2013

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GVI Forex john 23:31 GMT November 9, 2013
China CPI

EARLIER China CPI rises.

GVI Forex john 23:22 GMT November 9, 2013
China CPI

OCTOBER 2013 China CPI CPI: +3.20% yy vs. +2.30% exp. vs. +2.10% prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer
Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 18:46 GMT November 9, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

after SnP cut France paper again, finance minister Pierre Moscovici screamed at players to "faire confiance à la France" and proclaimed that "la note de la France reste une note extrêmement élevée, une des plus élevées à l'échelle mondiale et dans la zone euro" and that "les investisseurs peuvent et vont continuer à faire confiance à la France". BUT... he offered no guarantees, just blather about that the French are coming, namely volonté de réduire les déficits en agissant sur "la réduction des dépenses publiques", sur "la compétitivité, qui est la clé de tout" et maintenait ses efforts pour "lutter contre le chômage".
Bottom Line:
trust the politician at your own risk.

GVI Forex john 16:15 GMT November 9, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

ECB Shocker

The European Central Bank (ECB) blindsided the markets on Thursday with an unexpected 25bp cut in its refi rate to 0.25%. We had been expecting some sort of ease by the ECB after a run of weak Eurozone and German economic data. The previous week had seen soft German September retail sales data. They came on the heels of weaker than expected employment data, and a softer than expected IFO survey. The broader Eurozone saw rising unemployment and falling (0.70% y/y) flash October HICP inflation. It was the developing deflation in the Eurozone that forced the hand of the ECB to make the token cut in the Refi rate. Its greatest significance was symbolic as it sent a clear message to the markets that the Eurozone economy is in trouble. This is a bearish development for the Euro.

October U.S. employment data Surprisingly Strong

There is no doubt that the October U.S. employment report (including revisions) was much stronger than expected. The street had been expecting the government shutdown to adversely impact the data, but such distortions were not found in the data. Note also that the ADP reading a week ago were pointing to a weak report. The unofficial market bench mark for economic expansion has been a gain of +200K in jobs. Jobs gains over the Last three months have now been 238K, 163K and 204K. There is no doubt that in the markets that the data put a Fed tapering on the table for consideration at the December FOMC meeting. Changes in the outlook for ECB poicy have given the USD a boost in the latest week.

Week Ahead

The data schedule for the week sees a number of key U.K. data releases, including the key Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report on Wednesday. On Thuursday, the Senate will hold a confirmation hearing for Janet Yellen as the next Fed Chair in January, when Ben Bernanke's term runs out. Otherwise, a the usual weekly U.S. data are due. Key Eurozone inflation data are slated. Keep in mind, recent very weak inflation data may have been behind the unexpected ECB rate cut last week.

Forex Trading Calendar
For key calendar items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to refer daily to the Global-View Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum for key items (actual data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released.

John M. Bland

Saar KaL 09:19 GMT November 9, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Selling these 2

avg 99.9628 97.2439
std 0.3638 0.3539

avg 0.9315 0.9002
std 0.0040 0.0039

EURUSD till mid Dec

avg 1.4043 1.3229
std 0.0161 0.0151

EURUSD till Same time next year
avg 1.4738 1.2242
std 0.0191 0.0159

Saar KaL 08:53 GMT November 9, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Bullish EURUSD For next week
very likely heading to 1.38+ over next month

avg 1.3593 1.3247
std 0.0058 0.0057

Hong Kong Qindex 02:16 GMT November 9, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

EUR/USD : As shown in the "Monthly Cycle Directional Indicator" the market is still consolidating within 1.3320 (marked with green) and 1.4101 (marked with blue).

Quantum Index Analysis

Hong Kong Qindex 02:04 GMT November 9, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : A supporting range is expected at 1.3251 // 1.3319 and a resistant range is expected at 1.3421 // 1.3441. The market is under observation.

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts


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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan

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