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Forex Forum Archive for 11/11/2013

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GVI Forex john 21:38 GMT November 11, 2013
Calendar



November 11, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, Novemeber 12. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: GB- CPI/RPI

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: GB- CPI/RPI/PPI
  • North America: US- 3-yr Auction, API Energy


prague mark 21:08 GMT November 11, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Lahore FM

do you see eur/usd down or sonsolidation >1.34? TIA

Lahore FM 21:03 GMT November 11, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Buy USDJPY
Entry: 99.21 Target: 110.00 Stop: 98.70

long now

GVI Forex john 20:28 GMT November 11, 2013
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands


Refresh Forum Manually to Update Table.


GVI Forex john 20:04 GMT November 11, 2013
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

Mtl JP 19:47 GMT November 11, 2013
Subdued Holiday Trade. Back- end weighted data week

john if "the Eurozone economy is in trouble" (UK's largest trading partner) and in view of anticipating Carney's Nov. 13 new economic and inflation forecasts what do you expect for the gbp from here ? tia !

GVI Forex john 19:13 GMT November 11, 2013
Subdued Holiday Trade. Back- end weighted data week
Reply   

Spot
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
 EURUSD  1.3410
 1.3613
 U.S. 2.75% 0 bp
  North America: Higher
 EURJPY 133.04
 133.71
 Bund 1.75% -1bp
 DE: DAX: Higher
 GBPUSD 1.5986
 1.6079
 GILT 2.79% +2bp
 GB: FTSE: Higher
 USDJPY 99.22   98.23
  JGB 0.60% +1bp  Asia Close Higher

HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: GB- CPI/RPI

  • Trade got off to a sluggish start this week with Holidays Monday is several centers due to the Veterans Day (formerly Armistice Day) observances. Markets were also still digesting the October U.S. employment report (including revisions), which  was much stronger than expected. There is no doubt that in the markets that the data put a Fed tapering on the table for consideration at the December FOMC.

  • The European Central Bank (ECB) also blindsided the markets last  Thursday with an unexpected 25bp cut in its refi rate to 0.25%.  The Eurozone has seen rising unemployment and falling (0,70% y/y) flash October HICP inflation. It was the developing deflation in the Eurozone that forced the hand of the ECB to make the token cut in the Refi rate. Its greatest significance was symbolic as it sent a clear message to the markets that the Eurozone economy is in trouble.

  • Tuesday starts a period  of a number of key U.K. data  releases. Otherwise, a the usual weekly U.S. data are due. Key Eurozone inflation data are also slated. Keep in mind, recent very weak inflation data may have been behind the unexpected ECB rate cut last week.

  • For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar . See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.

GVI Forex Blog 19:12 GMT November 11, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: GB- CPI/RPI Trade got off to a sluggish start this week with Holidays Monday is several centers due to the Veterans Day (formerly Armistice Day) observances. Markets were also still digesting the October U.S. employment report (including revisions), which was much stronger than expected. There is no doubt that in the markets that the data put a Fed tapering on the table for consideration at the December FOMC.

Subdued Holiday Trade. Back- end weighted data week

Jerusalem KB 19:01 GMT November 11, 2013
Gold hunter

Buy Gold
Entry: 1283 Target: Stop: 1277.8

bought

Jerusalem KB 18:04 GMT November 11, 2013
Gold hunter

Sell Gold
Entry: 1277.8 Target: 1268-1254 Stop: 1282

sell stop

GVI Forex Blog 16:04 GMT November 11, 2013 Reply   
November 11, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, November 12. Updated: Trading Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: GB- CPI/RPI

GVI Forex Data Outlook for November 12, 2013

GVI Forex john 16:01 GMT November 11, 2013
Calendar
Reply   


November 11, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, November 12. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: GB- CPI/RPI

  • Far East: No Major Data
  • Europe: GB- CPI/RPI/PPI
  • North America: US- 3-yr Auction, API Energy


Mtl JP 13:32 GMT November 11, 2013
suckers: CB's making fools out of pundits & players
Reply   
according to (Reuters) - After slashing interest rates to almost nothing and printing trillions of dollars, central banks are becoming increasingly reliant on another policy weapon: sucker punching markets

The European Central Bank shocked investors and forecasters last Thursday by cutting its main refinancing rate to a record low, reacting to a shock decline in inflation.

It was the second big central bank surprise in less than two months, after the U.S. Federal Reserve decided in September not to trim its monthly bond purchase stimulus.
--
how long are players going to let themselves be kicked in what the squirrels like ?
should this not mean war ?

GVI Forex john 13:18 GMT November 11, 2013
Monday's Market

nh - Thanks. Always so nice to have you around!

Livingston nh 13:12 GMT November 11, 2013
Monday's Market

John - there are a lot of small explanations for decline in LFP but the trend has been clear for some time

"Livingston nh 15:58 GMT July 5, 2009
Unemployment Rate: Reply

A further comment on employment trends - a longer term chart - the blue line is the labor force shown in the prior comment - the green line is the participation rate which has been growing since the '70s as the boomer moms and then boomers entered the workforce - this has been a very strong contributor to the overall economic growth and for 40 years up until the dot com recession in 2001 has grown after each recession - it looks like it has peaked

The red line is employment % of total population -- Head and Shoulders w/ a break of the neckline here (?) - this trend is the problem and the opportunity... "
____
We should also be watching the Emerging Markets for similar reaction to May - Sept TAPER fears

Thanksgiving is for the Bears

GVI Forex john 13:06 GMT November 11, 2013
Monday's Market

EUR Heat Map. All GREEN in the change column. That signifies the EUR is higher vs. other major currencies.

GVI Forex john 12:57 GMT November 11, 2013
Monday's Market
Reply   
Off to a sluggish start today. U.S banks and the Fed are closed for the Veteran's Day (formerly Armistice Day) holiday. Canada and France are closed as well. U.S. share markets are open. This is a relatively sow week for market-moving data.

Today is the first full day for markets to react to the unexpected surge in October non-farm payrolls released on Friday. The data are being tempered by massive (unexplained) decline in labor force participation.

So far the EUR is up on its major crosses.

GVI Forex john 11:13 GMT November 11, 2013
Fixed Income Snapshot
Reply   
Early in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are mostly mixed. U.S. bond markets are closed for a holiday today. Equity markets are mostly higher today. Peripheral bond prices are higher.


GVI Forex 10:55 GMT November 11, 2013
Global Markets News
Reply   
Quiet conditions gave dealer time to reflect on last week's US data and whether Dec was a viable option for potential taper
TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Partial US holiday has participation on the sidelines

ed kw 09:56 GMT November 11, 2013
confused

us bonds are to high shod keep fed all in

jkt-aye 09:53 GMT November 11, 2013
confused
Reply   
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

is this the high of the day ?

Lahore FM 09:39 GMT November 11, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Buy Gold
Entry: 1280 Target: Stop: 1269.50

long now

PAR 09:28 GMT November 11, 2013
ECB

High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/6f0206f8-4a1f-11e3-b84c-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2kKNKaWsw


Officials said the bank’s leadership was even more concerned that growing anti-ECB sentiment in Germany could hamper Mr Draghi’s ability to move aggressively against signs of deflation and on other issues sensitive to Berlin. These include the future of the EU’s “banking union” and the provision of new cheap long-term loans to struggling eurozone banks.

“This indeed can be a problem for the coming difficult decisions,” said one person involved in the discussions. “It shows a big problem: that the ECB is heavily losing trust and confidence in the largest country of the euro area, namely Germany.”

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/6f0206f8-4a1f-11e3-b84c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2kKMXXWzO

PAR 08:35 GMT November 11, 2013
Inflation under Draghi
Reply   
ECB Headquarters: Skyrocketing Costs for Skyscraper Project

Estimated costs for the European Central Bank's new headquarters in Frankfurt have more than doubled. As has been happening with so many major projects in Germany, its construction has been plagued by poor planning, oversight and execution -- and endless delays.

Luxury in an Age of Austerity

Once again, a major German construction project is spinning out of control -- like the new airport in Berlin and Hamburg's Elbphilharmonie concert hall. And, once again, the owner of the property, a public body, is trying to blame the delays and cost overruns on external factors. At last year's topping out ceremony, Jörg Asmussen, a German member of the ECB's executive board, said that general "price increases for building materials and services" were at fault.

PAR 08:25 GMT November 11, 2013
ECB
Reply   
Germany not amused with ECB rate cut . German and Dutch board members voted against . Draghi misusing his powers.

ECB becoming Banca D'Italia.

Hong Kong AceTrader 07:25 GMT November 11, 2013
AceTrader Nov 11 : Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/KRW
Reply   
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1071.0
11 Nov 2013 05:58GMT

Usd's sharp gap-up open n subsequent rise signals
rise fm Oct's low at 1054.3 remains in force n fur-
ther gain to 1074.0 is seen b4 retreat.

Look to buy on dips as only below sup 1062.5 wud
indicate a temp. top has been made, risk 1058.7.

STRATEGY : Stand aside

RES : 1071.9/1074.0/1077.3

SUP : 1062.5/1058.7/1054.3

Saar KaL 06:58 GMT November 11, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Attn EURUSD Traders
if you want to be comfortable trading it this week with out any thoughts or stress
use my offset number
that is all you need to know
1.0140

Place Buys Only (Bullish week IMO)
use the offset as a diving number to place buys
Long at = anyClose/1.014
i.e
Long at 1.3360/1.014
for now
Budget that only 20% of these Orders will be executed
Keep placing these from any close from now till the end of the week... you will realize that trading is easy
Small Lots and many
Exit at anyClose*1.014

GVI Forex Blog 05:49 GMT November 11, 2013 Reply   
Hundreds confirmed fatalities from a violent typhoon that ripped through the Philippines over the weekend, though officials worry the number could reach thousands; Early estimates suggest Philippine G

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China inflation softer than expected but still at 8-month high; Fixed asset investment falls to 3-month lows - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 03:48 GMT November 11, 2013 Reply   
Dow (15761.78, +167.80) bounced sharply towards the upper boundary of the 1000 point

Morning Briefing : 11-Nov-2013 -0346 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:53 GMT November 11, 2013
AceTrader Nov 11 : Dollar rallies after U.S. payrolls beat estimates
Reply   
Market Review - 09/11/2013 02:13GMT

Dollar rallies after U.S. payrolls beat estimates

Dollar strengthened against other currencies on Friday after the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls fuelled renewed speculation the Federal Reserve could soon begin tapering its stimulus program. U.S. non-farm payroll in October came in at 204K, much higher than the economists' forecasts of 125K, previous reading was revised higher to 163K from 148k.

The single currency retreated to 1.3389 ahead of European open due to the downgrade of France sovereign credit rating by S&P, however, price quickly rebounded and ratcheted higher to 1.3432 in European morning. Euro briefly climbed to 1.3438 in New York morning. The pair tanked to session low of 1.3318 after release of stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report, however, active short-covering above Thursday's 7-week low at 1.3295 lifted the pair in New York afternoon. Euro last traded around 1.3370 near New York close.

S&P lowered France sovereign credit rating to AA from AA+. S&P revised France sovereign credit outlook to stable from negative.

Versus Japanese yen, the greenback traded narrowly in Asian and European morning sessions. Dollar later retreated to 97.97 in New York morning and then jumped to an intra-day high of 99.22 on strong U.S. job data before stabilizing in New York afternoon.

The British pound traded narrowly in Asian session and then fell to 1.6060 in European morning. Cable later tumbled to intra-day low at 1.5957 in New York morning after release of strong U.S. jobs report.

In other news, French President Francois Hollande said economic policy his government is pursuing is the only one that can ensure France's credibility; government will take all necessary saving measures without endanger France's Welfare model; low market interest rates are testament to France's credibility.

On the data front, University of Michigan confidence in November came in at 72.0, weaker than market forecast of 74.5. France industrial production in September came in at -0.5% m/m and -0.9% y/y, versus the expectation of 0.1% and -0.9%, previous reading was revised to 0.7% n -2.0% respectively. France manufacturing production in September came in at -0.7% m/m and -1.3% y/y, stronger economists’ forecast of 0.4% n -1.1%, previous reading is revised to 0.9% and -2.7% respectively.

Data to be released next week :

Japan current account, Economic watch DI, Australia home loans, Italy industrial production on Monday. Financial markets in France, Canada and U.S. will be closed due to public holiday.

Australia NAB business condition, NAB business confidence, Japan tertiary industry index, consumer confidence, machine tools orders, U.K. RICS house prices, CPI, RPI, PPI, ONS house price, Germany CPI, HICP, Italy CPI, HICP, U.S. Chicago Fed index, Redbook retail sales on Tuesday.

Australia Westpac consumer confidence, Japan machinery orders, domestic CGPI, U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, average earnings 3 months, BoE releases quarterly inflation report, EU industrial production, U.S. Fed budget on Wednesday.

New Zealand business PMI, ANZ consumer confidence, Japan GDP, industrial production, capacity utilisation, France GDP, Germany GDP, France HICP, CPI, Italy GDP, U.K. retail sales, EU GDP, U.S. jobless claims, Canada new housing price index, trade balance, exports, imports on Thursday.

Italy trade balance, current account, EU CPI, U.S. export price index, import price index, Empire State manufacturing, industrial production, capacity utilisation, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales and Canada existing home sales on Friday.

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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