Forex Forum Archive for 12/09/2013

GVI Forex john 23:11 GMT December 9, 2013
Calendar

Key U.K. data on Thursday. Could impact the GBP. The U.K. economy seems to be the economy that is the farthest along on the recovery path among the majors. The data will be evaluated in that light.

GVI Forex john 23:06 GMT December 9, 2013
Calendar
Reply   


December 9, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, January 10. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: GB- Industrial/Manufacturing Output, Trade, US- 3-yr Auction.

• Far East: No Major Data.
• Europe: GB- Industrial/Manufacturing Output, Trade.
• North America: US- Wholesale Inventories, 3-yr auction, API Energy.

Jerusalem KB 21:53 GMT December 9, 2013
Pipshunter

Buy AUDUSD
Entry: 0.9100 Target: 0.9175-0.9220 Stop: 0.9050

bought

ed kw 20:59 GMT December 9, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

Fed won�t taper next week. It�s not about growth or employment at this point; it�s about the Fed need to inflate; deflation�s still winning.

GVI Forex john 20:53 GMT December 9, 2013
Chart Points - Free FX Database
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john 20:43 GMT December 9, 2013
Chart Points -- Trading Points
Reply   
Pre-Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands

Sydney ACC 20:33 GMT December 9, 2013
Australia's five tidal waves of unemployment
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But we have a majority in cabinet that believe, with a passion, that 2016 is just the time to hit the economy, that Australia needs to be taught a lesson and the labour force requires a good cleansing. So as a deliberate policy they are determined to abandon the previous government�s deal to save the motor industry at least until 2022.

So in 2015 and 2016 we will see at least 350,000 jobs lost in mining investment, motor, retail and the public service. My guess it that job losses will go close to 500,000.

In fairness, there is no doubt that the minister for industry, Ian Macfarlane, fully understands the implications of the five tidal waves and is working feverishly to stop cabinet's motor carnage coming at the same time as the other blows (Macfarlane's plan to save the car industry, November 28).

But clearly the more cavalier cabinet members can see the chance to shut down the industry and do not care about the timing or any other consequences.

GVI Forex john 20:30 GMT December 9, 2013
U.K data are set for release on Tues. No high-impact data due
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Spot	20d avg	10-yr	Equities
EURUSD 1.3735	1.3551	U.S. 2.86% -3bp	North America: Higher
EURJPY 141.78	137.36	Bund 1.85%  0bp	DE: DAX: Higher
GBPUSD 1.6424	1.6222	GILT 2.92% +1bp	GB: FTSE:Higher
USDJPY  103.20	101.35	JGB 0.66% -3bp	Asia Close Higher

HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: GB- Industrial/Manufacturing Output, Trade, US- 3-yr Auction

• We feel the Fed will wants to see more data before it starts to "taper" its Asset Purchase program. The only key piece of U.S. data this week is Retail Sales data on Friday..We think the Fed will not make a major policy move before January 30,  two days before Bernanke retires.


• March 20 is the first meeting with Janet Yellen at the helm.  The March meeting is the next time a press conference scheduled. The Yellen final Senate confirmation vote may be on Friday December 20.


•  We currently think a tapering would be worth about 3.00% in the 10-yr (last 2.850%). How that instrument behaves tells us a lot about what the markets are expecting.  
  


• This week sees a number of data releases but we do not expect many of them to be market-moving. The Swiss National Bank and Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce their latest policy decisions. Australian jobs data are due and the mid-month period usually sees the bulk of key U.K. data.


• See the FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.. For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar. See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.     

GVI Forex Blog 20:28 GMT December 9, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: GB- Industrial/Manufacturing Output, Trade, US- 3-yr Auction We feel the Fed will wants to see more data before it starts to "taper" its Asset Purchase program. The only key piece of U.S. data this week is Retail Sales data on Friday..We think the Fed will not make a major policy move before January 30, two days before Bernanke retires.

U.K data are set for release on Tues. No high-impact data due

GVI Forex 19:59 GMT December 9, 2013
AUD and NZD
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Markets were subdued during a quiet evening news-wise. Some markets extended the post-US payrolls reaction slightly (US equities, dollar and interest rates) while others corrected slightly (AUD/USD, NZD/USD). The S&P500 is currently up 0.2%.

NZ Morning Thoughts - FX & IR

Amman wfakhoury 19:34 GMT December 9, 2013
EURUSD 13735

next target 13780..if keeps above 13735.
any decline below 13735 will return to it with poss to reach 13700

Mtl JP 19:19 GMT December 9, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

Fisher:
- backs taper at earliest opportunity
- no need to boost inflation expectations
- Fed should release tapering schedule

prague mark 19:17 GMT December 9, 2013
EURUSD 13735

Amman wfakhoury 18:47 GMT 12/09/2013

Sir, where do you see eur/usd next? TIA

GVI Forex john 19:16 GMT December 9, 2013
Fixed Income Snapshot

Late in European trade, prices in prime fixed income markets remain mostly higher on the day. Equities in Europe and the U.S. are mostly higher on a better economic outlook Peripheral bond prices ended mostly lower.

GVI Forex Blog 19:04 GMT December 9, 2013 Reply   
December 9, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, January 10. Updated: Trading Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: GB- Industrial/Manufacturing Output, Trade, US- 3-yr Auction.

GVI Forex Data Outlook for December 10, 2013

GVI Forex john 19:01 GMT December 9, 2013
Calendar
Reply   


December 9, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, January 10. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: GB- Industrial/Manufacturing Output, Trade, US- 3-yr Auction.

• Far East: No Major Data.
• Europe: GB- Industrial/Manufacturing Output, Trade.
• North America: US- Wholesale Inventories, 3-yr auction, API Energy.

Amman wfakhoury 18:47 GMT December 9, 2013
EURUSD 13735
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 08:08 GMT December 7, 2013
EURUSD 13731 confirmed : Reply
EURUSD 13731 confirmed ..will be reached.
____________________
actually 13735 confirmed toady and reached

jkt abel 18:45 GMT December 9, 2013
euro
Reply   
imminent crash? my a$$

Mtl JP 18:11 GMT December 9, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

next up is Fisher, twice

in his later and 2nd appearance he is scheduled for an interview with cnbc Santelli

Mtl JP 18:10 GMT December 9, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

bad cop good cop...

Bullard: "small taper might recognize labor market improvement while still providing the [Fed] the opportunity to carefully monitor inflation during the first half of 2014"

Mtl JP 17:53 GMT December 9, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

next up is dove Bullardin about 10 minutes

Mtl JP 17:52 GMT December 9, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

Lacker just delivered his yak

Lacker's Bottom Line:
discuss possibility of tapering ... = no actual cutting
-
on minor points:
not upbeat about job growth prospects
FED meddling not delivery exciting results
expects inflation - in other words loss of purchasing power - to close in on Fed's 2% target

Minneapolis DRS2 17:49 GMT December 9, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

"...a liquidity trap had been avoided..."

Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha..........

Mtl JP 17:41 GMT December 9, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

In a speech to the Economic Club of New York, Carney said he was confident monetary policy was gaining traction and that a 'liquidity trap' had been avoided. - reuters

Mtl JP 17:14 GMT December 9, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

BoC Carney about to say something - topic was not pre-announced

Mtl JP 16:48 GMT December 9, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

heading into year-end a friendly warning reminder from CNBC

Embrace the selloff By Patti Domm, CNBC Executive News Editor

usual caveats apply

GVI Forex 16:25 GMT December 9, 2013
Global Markets News
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The afterglow from last week's solid US data continues to buoy sentiment this morning, aided by a subdued China November inflation report and the better components of the November China trade data

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Just Another Merger Monday

Hong Kong Qindex 16:05 GMT December 9, 2013
EUR/GBP : Critical Level 0.8445

Buy EURGBP
Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/GBP : Monthly Cycle Charts

Hong Kong Qindex 15:25 GMT December 9, 2013
EUR/GBP : Critical Level 0.8445
Reply   
Buy EURGBP
Entry: Target: Stop:




EUR/GBP : The market is stable when it is trading above the barrier at 0.8335 // 0.8340. The odds are good that the market will move ahead and tackle the critical range of 0.8388 // 0.8445.


Qindex.com

Quantum Index Analysis

Saar KaL 15:00 GMT December 9, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

added much more Longs
Cable
as Long as it is less then 1.6440 today
I will Buy
tgt > 1.6550

Saar KaL 14:56 GMT December 9, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Short silver tgt < 18.5

Sydney ACC 14:43 GMT December 9, 2013
#China Trade Surplus Grows

What has gained local media coverage over the last couple of weeks is the closure of GM's local auto production in Holden. Ford has already announced its intention to cease production by 2016. If GM carry through with this threat it will leave only Toyota producing cars in Australia. With only one producer the local components industry would become uneconomical.
The auto industry exports about AUD 5 billion pa but more importantly employs 60,000 people around 6% of the number employed in manufacturing.
Holden says it needs more government aid which the media has indicated amounts to AUD 150 mill per annum. Together with the problems at Qantas there's a tussle going on in federal cabinet between wets and dries about the level of government aid needed to sustain these two companies specifically but in general Australian manuafcturiing whibh is being buffeted by a high AUD relative to the USD.

Mtl JP 14:26 GMT December 9, 2013
Focus today on equities and fixed income markets. No high-impact releases

no high impact releases but profusion of speakers:
BoE Carney
non-voting hawk Lacker
non-voting 2014 dove Bullard
voting 2104 hawk Fisher, 2x today

eu 13:36 GMT December 9, 2013
aud/nzd

earlier mentioned 1.0990 is tested now...watch if break and then hold for futher swings up...if sellers ( they are sure waiting here) will massive sell and test the bottom again I will buy again....I expect break , but we will see)))

GVI Forex john 13:28 GMT December 9, 2013
#China Trade Surplus Grows

#AUD The AUD reaction to the Chinese trade surplus did not last long after the Australian open today. The currency was also undermined by comments by RBA Governor Stevens.

"...Australia should not be foolish in thinking it is going to continue having uninterrupted economic expansion, RBA governor Glenn Stevens says, warning that a downturn would happen eventually..."

You could think that he might have been trying to undermine the currency? This shows once again why an important part of your trading arsenal should be watching how a currency is reacting to "good" or "bad" news it can tell you a lot about its Supply/demand balance.

Mtl JP 13:24 GMT December 9, 2013
Observations

OECD Indicators Point To Synchronized Growth Pickup - wsj

Indicators - indicated growth had returned to its long-term trend rate up to 100.7 in October from 100.6 in September
- for the euro area up to 100.9 from 100.7 in September
- Germany rose to 100.7 from 100.5.
- France indicator up to 100.2 from 100.0 in September
- U.S. running stable near its trend rate at 100.8
- Japan at above-trend at 101.3 up from 101.1 in September
----
Glory to the CB meddlers !

GVI Forex 13:20 GMT December 9, 2013
Global Markets News
Reply   
For the most part risk appetite tried to maintain its hold on the markets aiding a soft tome to the USD and JPY currencies against the major European pairs.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Risk appetite looks for reasons to continue in session; Greece CPI falls by record amount

London Misha 12:03 GMT December 9, 2013
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - 2nd White Soldier follows Bullish Doji, Almost Dragonfly Doji after Pipe Bottom on Daily Chart.
USDJPY - Key Reversal Up & Bullish Engulfing Pattern on Daily Chart!
GBPUSD - Indecisive Spinning Tops on Daily & Weekly Charts ahead of 38.2% Fib 2007-2008 move but above broke 2009 Downtrend.
USDCHF - 4th Black Crow on Daily Chart. Imminent Dead Cross Short MA down through Short/Medium MA.
EURGBP - Key Reversal Up on Weekly Chart!
AUDUSD - Indecisive Doji on Weekly Chart but Key Reversal Up on Daily Chart!
USDINR - 2nd Black Crow follows Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart! Gap Down after weekend!
USDZAR - Key Reversal Down on a Friday after Key Reversal Up on the previous Monday, All on Daily Chart!
USDBRL - 2nd Black Crow after Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart. Possible Bearish Shooting Star on Weekly Chart.

GVI Forex john 11:29 GMT December 9, 2013
Japan GDP



EARLIER: Final Japanese GDP fell -0.3% q/q. More QE in the cards?

GVI Forex john 11:26 GMT December 9, 2013
Japan GDP
Reply   

GVI Forex john 11:24 GMT December 9, 2013
German Industrial Output

KaL- Could be. Often equity markets move ahead of the economy.

Saar KaL 11:15 GMT December 9, 2013
German Industrial Output

John
Just did a run on the dax
it's a great buy IMO
could see 10,000 by april

GVI Forex john 11:14 GMT December 9, 2013
China CPI



EARLIER China CPI stable.

GVI Forex john 11:11 GMT December 9, 2013
China CPI
Reply   

GVI Forex john 11:01 GMT December 9, 2013
German Industrial Output
Reply   

GVI Forex john 10:46 GMT December 9, 2013
Focus today on equities and fixed income markets. No high-impact releases
Reply   

Spot	20d avg	10-yr	Equities
EURUSD 1.3720	1.3535	U.S. 2.85% -3bp	North America: Higher
EURJPY 141.34	136.92	Bund 1.84%  -1bp	DE: DAX: Higher
GBPUSD 1.6381	1.6200	GILT 2.91% 0bp	GB: FTSE:Lower
USDJPY  103.02	101.15	JGB 0.66% -3bp	Asia Close Higher

HIGH IMPACT ITEMS:   No Major Data

• After the November U.S. jobs report solid. U.S. We feel the Fed will want to see more data before it starts to "taper" its Asset Purchase program. The last FOMC meeting of 2013 is on December 18 .We think the Fed will not make a major policy move before January 30,  two days before Bernanke retires.


• March 20 would be the first meeting with Janet Yellen at the helm.  Also, the March meeting is the next time a press conference scheduled. Yellen final Senate confirmation vote  may be Friday December 20.


•  We currently think a tapering would be worth about 3.00% in the 10-yr (last 2.850%). How that instrument behaves tells us a lot about what the markets are expecting.  
  


• This week sees a number of data releases but we do not expect many of them to be market-moving. The Swiss National Bank and Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce their latest policy decisions. Australian jobs data are due and the mid-month period usually sees the bulk of key U.K. data.


• See the FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.. For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic Calendar. See the  FOREX FORUM  for latest key data and charts as they are released.     

GVI Forex Blog 10:46 GMT December 9, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: No Major Data After the November U.S. jobs report solid. U.S. We feel the Fed will want to see more data before it starts to "taper" its Asset Purchase program. The last FOMC meeting of 2013 is on December 18 .We think the Fed will not make a major policy move before January 30, two days before Bernanke retires.

Focus today on equities and fixed income markets. No high-impact releases

eu pat 10:40 GMT December 9, 2013
aud/nzd



Weekly channel chart. Price is under bottom of channel.... Need to watch 1.0990, potentially break and hold at next retest...

need stoploss at this huge downtrend and below broken channel...

Saar KaL 10:32 GMT December 9, 2013
aud/nzd

AUDNZD turing big
need time
1.08 to 1.23
2 years tgt

GVI Forex john 10:15 GMT December 9, 2013
Fixed Income Snapshot
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Early in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are mostly better as markets consolidate Friday's losses. Equity markets are mixed. The peripheral European bond prices are mixed.

eu pat 10:14 GMT December 9, 2013
aud/nzd
Reply   
eu pat 16:37 GMT July 31, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level: Reply
... aud / nzd are normally traded at this level and lower before the crisis.it seemed that aud / usd is botomming, but Stevens sent it lower. AUS has a problem at so hard to say where it will end. On the aud / nzd see no supine bottom. ... I would still wait to swing...
-----------------------------------------------------


Hi all ))0

Try to catch a bottom is not easy)))

long aud /nzd 1.0970...I see a potential bottom at 1.0950...but c Christmas fruit of trend is still lower for greedy bankers))0

Saar KaL 10:08 GMT December 9, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

More Into Longing GBPUSD then Longing EURUSD today

Saar KaL 09:51 GMT December 9, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Bali for eurjpy
I think 142.4
not sure about 152

bali sja 08:47 GMT December 9, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

how abour eurjpy?152.80 now possible?

Saar KaL 07:37 GMT December 9, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

NZDJPY is a nice long
Below 84 area
on way to 89 90 area

Saar KaL 06:39 GMT December 9, 2013
Aussie dollar�s gyrations certainly remain the stuff of gamblers, which, if nothing else, should be

Maybe we can tell him
from 0.8850 area to 1.1
is where it will do for next 6 month

Saar KaL 06:37 GMT December 9, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Looks Like shorts on
NZDUSD and EURGBP

Longs on GBPAUD
Cable, and EURUSD are on the menu this week

Syd 06:33 GMT December 9, 2013
Aussie dollar�s gyrations certainly remain the stuff of gamblers, which, if nothing else, should be
Reply   
No wonder Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens didn�t want to say anything further about the Australian dollar to The Wall Street Journal � when you�ve had a win at the casino, it�s always a good idea to walk away.

And the Aussie dollar�s gyrations certainly remain the stuff of gamblers, which, if nothing else, should be a warning to the mug punters who continue to be sucked in by forex trading spruikers flogging expensive courses and software with dodgy promises of easy money.

The Reserve Bank�s efforts to jawbone the Aussie down seemed to be going nicely last week, strategically aligned as they were with the hope and/or expectation of the increasing speculation about US Federal Reserve tapering.

If Friday night�s US payrolls figures came in a bit better than expected, the Aussie was sure to weaken. Turns out the payrolls did but the Aussie didn�t. Yes, forecasting is a mug�s game.
Advertisement

A rational approach to expectations of weaker terms of trade and the Americans easing up on debasing the greenback would conclude that the Australian dollar trend should still be downwards, but business expectations in a new survey on the forex outlook and the double-edged nature of a stronger US economy indicate the Aussie won�t go down without a fight.
Unforecastable Aussie

For all the RBA�s talking and the forecasts of most market economists, Australian businesses expect the Aussie to remain stubbornly strong. A regular survey of active importers and exporters by East and Partners found businesses on average expected the Aussie to be still worth US90.7� next September.

However, the survey demonstrated a couple of other interesting things. It was taken just a couple of weeks ago, at the end of last month, and yet it�s nearest term forecast already looks highly unlikely as the average guess was that the Aussie would be worth US93.9� at the end of December. So the first lesson is confirmation of the universal truth that the Aussie is unforecastable.

The second lesson is that the smaller the business, the more bearish it is about the currency. The East and Partners survey broke the respondents down into four classes by turnover: $5-25 million, $25-$150 million, $150-500 million and $500 million plus.

There�s a steady gradation through the classes from the smallest companies� forecast of an US88.1� Aussie come September 30 to the largest firms predicting US92.8�.

In the near term � this month � the smaller firms reckoned US91.1�and the largest picked a hefty US95.2�.

I�m not sure what that means � whether it�s the hope of smaller businesses shining through for a weaker dollar on the horizon or that the big boys know something the RBA doesn�t or that they just habitually expect the worst. But it�s interesting.
Rumour vs news

Among the factors pushing the Aussie back up to US91� on Saturday morning was a version of the old market adage to �buy the rumour, sell the news�. Except in this case it was sell the Aussie on the payrolls rumour and buy on the news. It�s also been suggested there was a trading reaction to the Aussie not falling further on that strong US employment growth � the shorts bailed when the trend failed.

On more fundamental grounds though, the Aussie could hold stubbornly up because a stronger US economy means stronger demand in a stronger global economy. Oil also rallied over the weekend on thoughts of a better America.

Then along came the better-than-expected Chinese trade figures on Sunday. With Chinese industrial production and retail sales statistics tomorrow having every chance of being stronger for longer as well, we continue to be carried along as part of the China trade.

And starting soon is the blandly-titled Central Economic Work conference � Beijing�s inner core fleshing out the major reforms from the Third Plenum and setting targets and plans for 2014. As Reuters reported last week, there is an interesting debate going on about whether the government should shoot for growth of 7.5 or 7 per cent next year. The one sure thing is that the usual China bears will misrepresent the latter and the reasons for it, if it comes to pass.
Synchronised growth

What�s in prospect in 2014 is the world�s two biggest economies growing quite nicely and Japan doing better than we�re used to. Europe remains sick and, in some ways, that�s not an entirely bad thing, as long as you�re not European. The last time there was good synchronised growth, the world was launching into an unsustainable bubble. For the sake of cementing the recovery, commodity prices are quite high enough, thankyou very much.

Without going that far, it is possible that our biggest export earner, iron ore, will continue to defy even the more optimistic forecasters. Absolutely nobody at the start of this year thought Pilbara rust would still be nudging $US140 a tonne in December. There are plenty of perma-bears who�ve been predicting its collapse ever since it recovered from the initial GFC shock. One of these days, if they live long enough, they�ll possibly be correct, but it doesn�t look like happening today or tomorrow.

So for all we might wish the Aussie was weaker to help our transition out of phase 2 of the commodities boom (digging the new holes), phase 3 (exporting the stuff from those holes) is still growing, still supporting our reputation as a commodity play currency. The stronger for longer China will do that, even when the country�s steel industry doesn�t make profit.

No wonder then, that Glenn Stevens reminded the WSJ that Australia will eventually have another slowdown.

As a statement, it�s up there with the sun rising in the east and what bears do in the woods. It�s also in keeping with the admitted RBA mission of trying to talk down our economy to foreigners, telling them we�re not as good as they think, while also trying to talk it up for the home crowd, demonstrating that we�re not as bad as we think.

What he wasn�t doing was making a forecast with any kind of date attached to it � he knows that is indeed a mug�s game.

No wonder Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens didn�t want to say anything further about the Australian dollar to The Wall Street Journal � when you�ve had a win at the casino, it�s always a good idea to walk away. And the Aussie dollar�s gyrations certainly remain the stuff of gamblers, which, if nothing else, should be a warning to the mug punters who continue to be sucked in by forex trading spruikers flogging expensive courses and software with dodgy promises of easy money.

GVI Forex Blog 06:25 GMT December 9, 2013 Reply   
- China trade data released over the weekend showed a mixed picture. The trade surplus was at the highest level since early January and exports rose 12.7% v 6.2%e, but imports were up just 5.3% - belo

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: China trade surplus at multi-year high on strong exports, while CPI falls to 3-month lows; Japan Q3 Final GDP growth slows - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 03:35 GMT December 9, 2013 Reply   
The Dow (16020.20, +1.26%) rallied hard to make the up for the loss incurred in the

Morning Briefing : 09-Dec-2013 -0334 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:40 GMT December 9, 2013
AceTraderFx Dec 9 : U.S. dollar rallies against Japanese yen on strong U.S. jobs report
Reply   
Market Review - 06/12/2013 22:24GMT

U.S. dollar rallies against Japanese yen on strong U.S. jobs report

U.S. dollar rallied to 102.97 against the Japanese yen on Friday after stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data, adding speculation that the Federal Reserve may start tapering its bond buying program sooner than expected.

U.S. employers added 203,000 new jobs in November and U.S. jobless rate fell to a five-year low of 7.0%. U.S. University of Michigan consumer sentiment rose to 82.5 in December versus final reading of 75.1 in November.

The single currency briefly dropped to a session low of 1.3620 after the release of U.S. jobs data before rallying to a fresh five-week high of 1.3706 in late New York. ECB chief Mario Draghi, after a policy meeting on Thursday, said the bank was ready to take fresh action to support a fragile recovery. Draghi also noted that liquidity in the banking system had improved since the last long-term cash injection and attached conditions for any repeat.

The British pound fell initially to a session low of 1.6294 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based weakness after the release of robust U.S. jobs report, however, cable staged a strong rebound to 1.6393 in tandem with euro before retreating again in late New York due to cross selling in sterling. Euro rose against the sterling from 0.8348 to 0.8390.

In other news, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser said 'the U.S. Federal Reserve should put a dollar cap and end date on its bond-buying program.' Plosser added "the sooner we end (the program) the better." Plosser suggested the central bank should convert its existing "thresholds" for raising interest rates to more predictable "triggers." The Fed has tied its first rate rise to future thresholds of 2.5 percent inflation and 6.5 percent unemployment.

Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said at symposium that 'the Federal Reserve should not worry too much if inflation temporarily rises above the Fed's 2 percent goal.' Evans added 'inflation is now running much lower than the Fed's goal, and Fed policies designed to push it back up may possibly overshoot; but the Fed's goals on inflation and on achieving maximum employment should be "symmetric," and the Fed should give them equal weight.' Evans also said he is not willing to used monetary policy to lean against the rise in stock prices that some see as a potential bubble.

Data to be released next week:

Japan current account, GDP, economic watch DI, China CPI, PPI, Swiss unemployment rate, retail sales, Germany trade balance, import, export, current account, industrial production, EU Sentix investor confidence, Canada housing starts on Monday

Australia home loans, business confidence, business condition, Japan Tertiary industry index, consumer confidence, , machine tools orders, China industrial production, fixed assets investing urban, retail sales, U.K. RICS house price, industrial production, manufacturing production, trade balance, France industrial production, manufacturing production, Italy industrial production, manufacturing production, GDP, U.S. retail sales, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales on Tuesday.

Australia consumer confidence, machinery orders, domestic CGPI, Germany CPI, HICP, France current account, U.S. Fed budget on Wednesday.

New Zealand rate decision, employment change, unemployment rate, France HICP, CPI, Swiss rate decision, EU industrial production, SNB rate decision, Italy CPI, HICP, Canada new housing price, U.S. import price index, export price index, jobless claims, retail sales, business inventories on Thursday.

New Zealand manufacturing PMI, consumer confidence, Japan industrial production, capital utilization, U.S. PPI on Friday.

Syd 00:36 GMT December 9, 2013
RBA governor Glenn Stevens says downturn inevitable
Reply   
Australia should not be foolish in thinking it is going to continue having uninterrupted economic expansion, RBA governor Glenn Stevens says, warning that a downturn would happen eventually.

Mr Stevens said the country was "building up this myth of 22 years of uninterrupted growth" and that sooner or later, there was a "probability of ... more or less 100 per cent" that a downturn would happen.

"We would be foolish to think that we have found the secret of completely eliminating the cycle, because we haven't," Mr Stevens told The Wall Street Journal.

"But if we are sensible and prudent and just a bit lucky, we can have cyclical downturns that are not so deep. It is the deep ones that are damaging. It is the deep ones that cast a long shadow on unemployment for years after."

Mr Stevens, who together with other Reserve Bank officials has jawboned on the need for a lower exchange rate in recent weeks, declined to speak further on the Australian dollar.

He said there were reasons to be optimistic about the future, but there was a need to foster innovation and productivity.

"We have to do better on output per hour," Mr Stevens said. "You can have real income per head rising without productivity if the terms of trade keep rising. That's not going to happen now. That's finished."

He added that "as a country, we have to get it. It doesn't just land here in our lap."

The International Monetary Fund said in November that labour productivity in Australia needed to rise significantly to maintain the historical growth in living standards. The Treasury's chief economist David Gruen also warned that income growth was set to grow at a "significantly slower" pace over the next decade than in the past half a century.

Mr Stevens said in response to questions on China that Australia needed to become more aware of the full implications of the country's economic cycles.

"I think there are issues for economic policy in general there - how we manage that across the cycle, and how we think about it," Mr Stevens said of Australia's largest trading partner.

"But that's not a reason not to engage with China, because it is still enriching us. But we ought to do so in a way that recognises that the fluctuations that they experience, we will feel them."