HK RF@ 23:50 GMT December 10, 2013
US budget deal agreed in Congress
Reply
A cross-party Congressional budget committee convened after an October government shutdown has reached an agreement to fund federal services.
The deal finances the government for two years and reduces the federal deficit by $23b (�14b).
It also avoids automatically triggering another government shutdown on 15 January.
It "cuts spending in a smarter way," Republican Congressman Paul Ryan said on Tuesday.
The budget deal also offsets $63b in previously enacted automatic military and domestic spending cuts triggered in January when Democrats and Republicans failed to reach a budget compromise.
Mr Ryan and Democratic Senator Patty Murray, the respective chairs of the House and Senate budget committees, were called on to reach a cross-party budget deal in the wake of a partial government shutdown over federal spending in October.
"We have broken through the partisanship and gridlock," Ms Murray said of the new deal.
Mr Ryan said he was optimistic the new budget agreement could pass both sides of the highly politically divided Congress
LINK
FM Lahore 23:41 GMT December 10, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
Cheers DC CB !
RF stampedes involve crowds !
HK RF@ 23:33 GMT December 10, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
FM
Add last night Zeus bearish call for the Euro...and you are forming a crowd;)
Sydney ACC 22:58 GMT December 10, 2013
US Budget
Reply
An agreement on a budget which the Washington Post advises is imminent, the first since 2011, surely must be positive for the dollar. At the very least it begins to illustrate the two-sides of Congress can work together neutralising the Tea Party delegates.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/12/10/the-morning-plum-gop-set-to-stiff-arm-conservatives-once-again/?hpid=z2
dc CB 22:27 GMT December 10, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
FM
confirming my bias
cheers to you
Lahore FM 22:16 GMT December 10, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
Buy usdx
Entry: now and next 6 weeks Target: 100 on dxy or higher Stop: to your liking
Entering Trade of the Decade USD longs.
next month and half shall show massive tilt for USD's favour.It could be a 2nd GFC or something else...i see it in charts ..will need to see how it works in the world of headlines.
re-entering usdcad long 2 portions that were closed out originally entered 1.0247 for 1.1000.
new target for 1/3rd portion long 1.0247 is 1.2000 and am taking the unloaded long back on to make the trade full sized.
dc CB 22:09 GMT December 10, 2013
U.S. Weekly API data
so wasn't last week's API a -12.5 on crude
to which I asked...was that a misplaced decimal point.
EIA the next day showed a draw but no where that drastic
Oddly enough, I've been focusing on the energy markets for trading...."less manipulation" LOL....but from my point of view, less subject to "headline" or "raid" manipulation, than stock/bonds/currencies or Gold/Silver.
Never thought I'd think that.
Hey Zeus.....puts on Jan Euros.......looking forward to the BatWing...Crab...when it works it does a spectacular job.
Cheers.
Volker Volker Volker ...more BS
dc CB 21:52 GMT December 10, 2013
Fed taper speculation increases again. Bond markets vote no
Taper????
so just heard (NPR All Things Considered) another report on the New New New Business Model, which is finally getting some press.
This follows on McDonalds, Walmart, Big TBTF Banks' Tellers.
This time it's Tyson Foods.
The Business Model, pay minimum wages or slightly better. Workers then go "on the dole"...food stamps, rent subsidies, medical assistance, "other Fed Taxpayer aid"
So If the Min Wage gets raised to a "Living Wage" JOBS WILL BE LOST...but then the stealth corporate subsidies may also disapear and maybe, just maybe, those workers may have some spare cash to buy stuff.
DOH.....
GVI Forex john 21:36 GMT December 10, 2013
U.S. Weekly API data
Reply
ALERT
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: -7.500 vs. -2.500 exp vs. -3.600 prev.
Gasoline: -2.500 vs. +2.000 exp vs. +1.830 prev.
Distillates: +1.200 vs. +1.000 exp vs. +2.650 prev.
Cap/Util: vs. N/A exp vs. 92.4% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
GVI Forex 20:39 GMT December 10, 2013
AUD and NZD
Reply
There was little news of note, leaving markets to extend recent themes. US interest rates and the US dollar slipped further, while high beta currencies outperformed. The ECB's Coeure poured cold water on asset purchases and LTRO's, helping the EUR rally.
NZ Morning Thoughts - FX & IR
GVI Forex john 20:09 GMT December 10, 2013
Fed taper speculation increases again. Bond markets vote no
Reply
Spot
|
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.3766
|
1.3569
|
U.S.
2.80% -6bp
|
North
America: Lower
|
EURJPY
141.36
|
137.74
|
Bund
1.84% -1bp
|
DE:
DAX: Lower
|
GBPUSD
1.6449
|
1.6249
|
GILT
2.89% -3bp
|
GB:
FTSE:Lower
|
USDJPY
102.71
|
101.50
|
JGB
0.67% +1bp |
Far
East
Close Lower
|
HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS: AU- Employment, US- 10-yr Auction
- Markets are off to a sluggish start today on a slow session
for data releases. Key U.K. data today did nothing to shake the view
that the U.K. economy continues to grow. See the FOREX FORUM
for latest key data and charts as they are
released.
- There has been a lot of fresh chatter about a modest taper
next week. There is report by Steve Liesman of CNBC that a Fed
taper next week is increasingly likely. We have no direct connection to
inside information at the Fed, so we rely on logic and the messages we
feel the central bank is sending. We note that the 10-yr last was
2.813% (2.799% low today) well below its pre- employment levels. We
see no signs the bond markets are setting up for a taper next
week.. We do not feel the Fed will make
a major policy move before January 30, but some forward guidance is
still
possible.
- March 20 is the first meeting with Janet Yellen at
the helm. The March meeting is the next time a press
conference scheduled. The Yellen final Senate confirmation vote may
be on Friday December 20.
- This week sees a number of data releases but we do
not expect many of them to be market-moving. The Swiss National Bank
and Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce their latest policy
decisions on Thursday. Australian jobs data are due Wednesday.
- See the FOREX FORUM
for latest key data and charts as they are released.. For additional
key items and more detail (dates, times,
data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic
Calendar. See the FOREX FORUM
for latest key data and charts as they are
released.
ed kw 20:08 GMT December 10, 2013
Bitcoin
It's still just late Fall. long soft commodities ,-17 av hear
GVI Forex Blog 20:07 GMT December 10, 2013
Reply
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: AU- Employment, US- 10-yr Auction
Markets are off to a sluggish start today on a slow session for data releases. Key U.K. data today did nothing to shake the view that the U.K. economy continues to grow. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
Fed taper speculation increases again. Bond markets vote no
dc CB 20:00 GMT December 10, 2013
Bitcoin
Jan-like weather here. another snowstorm this weekend, maybe not in DC but NY and New England dumpage.
NatGas? thurs a week away will have draws from all this.
Market is still short.
got at foot of snow since sunday, underneath the grass is green.
It's still just late Fall.
dc CB 19:41 GMT December 10, 2013
the LiesMan predicts
*OBAMA SAYS VOLCKER RULE WILL MAKE FINANCIAL SYSTEM SAFER
*If you like your insurance policy you can keep your insurance policy. If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor, PERIOD.
dc CB 19:29 GMT December 10, 2013
Bitcoin
Power outage
Mtl JP 19:27 GMT December 10, 2013
Bitcoin
dc CB u r late with your Lew peddling paper watch ...
seems like players gobbled up his 3-year paper with enthusiasm
dc CB 18:52 GMT December 10, 2013
Bitcoin
Reply
If this �web cash� system � as JPMorgan Chase calls it � seems familiar, it should. It smacks of the peer-to-peer transactions of bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies that increasingly are making the world�s biggest banks uneasy about the future of e-commerce.
The patent, first revealed by LetsTalkBitcoin.com, is a fascinating look into JPMorgan�s veiled outlook on the evolving but growing bitcoin universe, and other more widely-accepted payment systems.
JPMorgan�s proposed system offers another eerily familiar component, which seemingly mimics �blockchain,� a publicly available, permanent ledger of bitcoin transactions.
Chase-ing Bitcoin: Is JPM Preparing To Unveil Its Own Electronic Currency?
Mtl JP 18:05 GMT December 10, 2013
AUD/USD
you dont mention your timeframe so using
Res 2 0.91621
Res 1 0.9134
Pivot 0.9100
Sup 1 0.9072
priceaction still iffy using 10 & 20dma crossover
Dubai Tony 17:59 GMT December 10, 2013
AUD/USD
Reply
AUDUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
Thanks JP.Could you also please provide an outlook for the AUD/USD considering the upcoming employment numbers.It seemed AUD and Gold were on a downward trend but now its moving up.Comments appreciated.TIA
Mtl JP 17:52 GMT December 10, 2013
GBP/USD
s/t gbp/usd:
Res 1 1.6463
Pivot 1.6392
Sup 1 1.6354
bias: UP
I like to use 10 and 20dma price crossover for early hints of directional change amongst others such as 1.6400 round number.
GVI Forex Blog 17:44 GMT December 10, 2013
Reply
December 10, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, December 11. Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: AU- Employment, US- 10-yr Auction.
GVI Forex Data Outlook for December 11, 2013
GVI Forex john 17:41 GMT December 10, 2013
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply
December 10, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, December 11.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: AU- Employment, US- 10-yr Auction.
- Far East: AU- Employment.
- Europe: No major Data.
- North America: US- Weekly Mortgages, 10-yr auction, Weekly Crude.
Livingston nh 17:38 GMT December 10, 2013
Fixed Income Snapshot
Jim Bianco made comment yesterday that if Yellen gets confirmed this week Bernanke would step down early because Ben doesn't think Chairman and Chairman-elect should be present at FOMC ... hmmm
___
yields should back up before FOMC because risk/reward seems a bit unbalanced but I'll wait and see (close above 2.87 10 yr)
Dubai Tony 17:36 GMT December 10, 2013
GBP/USD
Reply
GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
What is the view on the GBP/USD pair.
Saar KaL 17:34 GMT December 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
RF
I do not know what you are talking about.
what is your call?
Mtl JP 17:06 GMT December 10, 2013
Fixed Income Snapshot
ya as linked by dc CB 14:04 ... the LiesMan predicts
GVI Forex john 17:02 GMT December 10, 2013
Fixed Income Snapshot
I saw a report below by Steve Liesman from CNBC that a Fed taper next week is increasingly likely. We have no direct connection to inside information at the Fed, so we rely on logic and the messages we feel the central bank is sending. We note that the 10-yr last was 2.813% (2.799% low today) well below its pre- employment levels. We would say that there are no signs the bond markets are setting up for a taper next week.
GVI Forex 16:56 GMT December 10, 2013
Fixed Income Snapshot
Refresh forum MANUALLY to update interest rate table
GVI Forex john 16:51 GMT December 10, 2013
Fixed Income Snapshot
Late in European trade, prices in prime fixed income markets are now mostly higher on the day. Equities in Europe and the U.S. are mostly weaker and helped by falling share prices. Peripheral bond prices ended mostly higher.
Ldn JPS 15:17 GMT December 10, 2013
No December taper
Reply
eurusd heading to 1.3955, stop profit 1.3575
gbpusd heading to 1.6620, stop profit 1.6280
Mtl JP 15:03 GMT December 10, 2013
#Your Best Trade for Today
john 14:58 - c eu pat 14:05. Both euro and usd are strenghtening, so it would appear euro is not strenghtening because usd is being sold off
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:01 GMT December 10, 2013
#Your Best Trade for Today
Good trade call today:
Pipshunter
Jerusalem KB 21:53 GMT 12/09/2013 - My Profile
Buy AUDUSD
Entry: 0.9100 Target: 0.9175-0.9220 Stop: 0.9050
bought
GVI Forex john 14:58 GMT December 10, 2013
#Your Best Trade for Today
#TradeIdeas Any thoughts on what is driving #EURUSD and #Gold higher today. This is certainly unexpected and maybe coming out of gold. On the other hand, the yield on the 10-yr has been falling 2.83% -2.7bp
Equities are weak. Weak stocks are supportive of bond prices (lower yields). The old EURUSD to equity correlation seems recently to have been working in the opposite direction.
Amman wfakhoury 14:55 GMT December 10, 2013
EURUSD 13735
Amman wfakhoury 19:34 GMT 12/09/2013
next target 13780..if keeps above 13735.
any decline below 13735 will return to it with poss to reach 13700 .
----------------------
13780..actually the target to 13784..and reached
HK RF@ 14:35 GMT December 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
Saar KaL 13:48
It is hard to admit your ROBOT is wrong.
Or you will be bound to repeat this situation again.
Mtl JP 14:17 GMT December 10, 2013
Cyprussed (yet to be)
according to Steinhauser in WSJ : Europe near deal on system to wind down struggling banks
claims that "European finance ministers were closing
in on a new system for winding down sick banks, in which the failure of a lender could be partly financed by banks from other countries."
-
IMHO this is an insidious piece minimizing and glossing over potential depositor contribution via "bail-in".
eu pat 14:05 GMT December 10, 2013
USD
Reply
Whatt we see now it is a weak USD...USD folow TA signal and just broken a support..USD was weak last days, but usd/jpy and aud /usd did not join party..Now near USD support it was broken while ago) they folow eur and gbp together (I wrote about AUD before)...It is before FED, but year trend is opposite (JPY and AUD)...EUR is still filling potential from triple bottom and H and R /weekly, as I wrote here moths ago...
Saar KaL 13:48 GMT December 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
gold and silver
I do not see them higher today
Saar KaL 13:47 GMT December 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
USDJPY Mean and P.I
today
103.7303 102.7548
104.2594 101.9291
dc CB 13:47 GMT December 10, 2013
GOLD, Probably a see you at 1254 soon:)
from ZH and Nanex
About 3,000 Gold Futures contracts traded in one second at 08:07:45 on December 10, 2013 sending the price up $10 and tripping circuit breakers which halted trading for 10 seconds.
This sort of thing is happening far too often: see also the drops on April 12, 2013, September 12, 2013, October 11, 2013, November 20, 2013 and November 25, 2013 which also resulted in trading halts.
HK RF@ 12:18 GMT December 10, 2013
JPY
Reply
Have moderate support at 102.90, which if not breached, a gradual move to 105 will be more probable.
Discard temporarily this idea, if USD/YEN drops below the said support.
HK RF@ 12:11 GMT December 10, 2013
NZD
Reply
Expect to see 82.40, within 24Hrs.
GVI Forex john 11:21 GMT December 10, 2013
#Your Best Trade for Today
Thanks all for participating. We'd love to see broad participation in this new feature. This is how we can help one another. We want to run it 24 hours a day.
prague mark 11:17 GMT December 10, 2013
#Your Best Trade for Today
misha,
alsp watch eur/jpy, once will penetrate 141.50, eur/usd will dive hard. IMHO
london misha 11:09 GMT December 10, 2013
#Your Best Trade for Today
mark,
what you see as next donward stations for eur/usd after 1.3743 cracked? My view is 1.3680 instantly...IMHO
eu pat 11:00 GMT December 10, 2013
AUD
Reply
My TA show me long aud/usd and crosses aud/eur, nzd, chf from friday last week...it was lazy last hours (voice from AUS)....
now aud is starting moving....we will see how strong and valid is TA, because we now, that all year trend is opposite,...usually it this trends continue to Christmas and probably retail tray to buy AUD ( as they do whole year)))
prague mark 10:48 GMT December 10, 2013
#Your Best Trade for Today
eur/jpy started the slide down... eur/usd will catch up... fasten the seatbelts eur bulls, - today the bear is king... LOL
GVI Forex john 10:19 GMT December 10, 2013
U.K. trade gap up as economy grows. U.S. calendar slow
Reply
Spot
|
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.3745
|
1.3551
|
U.S.
2.83% -3bp
|
North
America: Higher
|
EURJPY
141.83
|
137.36
|
Bund
1.83% -2bp
|
DE:
DAX: Higher
|
GBPUSD
1.6433
|
1.6222
|
GILT
2.91% -1bp
|
GB:
FTSE:Higher
|
USDJPY
103.18
|
101.35
|
JGB
0.67% +1bp |
Far
East
Close Lower
|
HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS:US- 3-yr Auction
- Markets are off to a sluggish start today on a slow session
for data releases. Key U.K. data today did nothing to shake the view
that the U.K. economy continues to grow. See the FOREX FORUM
for latest key data and charts as they are
released.
- Comments by Fed voter dullard yesterday said the Fed could
do a modest taper as early as next week. We do not feel the Fed will
make
a major policy move before January 30, but some forward guidance is
possible at any time.
- March 20 is the first meeting with Janet Yellen at
the helm. The March meeting is the next time a press
conference scheduled. The Yellen final Senate confirmation vote may
be on Friday December 20.
- This week sees a number of data releases but we do
not expect many of them to be market-moving. The Swiss National Bank
and Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce their latest policy
decisions. Australian jobs data are due Wednesday.
- See the FOREX FORUM
for latest key data and charts as they are released.. For additional
key items and more detail (dates, times,
data estimates), be sure to reference our Economic
Calendar. See the FOREX FORUM
for latest key data and charts as they are
released.
GVI Forex Blog 10:17 GMT December 10, 2013
Reply
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS:US- 3-yr Auction
Markets are off to a sluggish start today on a slow session for data releases. Key U.K. data today did nothing to shake the view that the U.K. economy continues to grow. See the FOREX FORUM for latest key data and charts as they are released.
U.K. trade gap up as economy grows. U.S. calendar slow
prague mark 10:02 GMT December 10, 2013
#Your Best Trade for Today
eur/usd heavy stops below 1.3695, so expect them to be taken out into early NY session...
GVI Forex john 09:52 GMT December 10, 2013
#Your Best Trade for Today
Reply
#TradeIdeas -- Today Modest changes from late Monday. Recent history suggests EURJPY could be the driver of activity. Not much news expected from the U.S. GBP has recovered from its dip after a larger trade deficit.
Saar KaL 09:47 GMT December 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
a great buy is NZDJPY
i want to buy below 84.3
tgt .89+
GVI Forex john 09:45 GMT December 10, 2013
Fixed Income Snapshot
Reply
Early in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are mostly better again as traders look for direction. Equity markets are mixed. The peripheral European bond prices are mostly higher.
Saar KaL 09:42 GMT December 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
No mostly bullish
Cable
and ndx
+ aapl...heheheh
Saar KaL 09:37 GMT December 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
MKT is bigger then what they are trying to do
this mkt...no one rules
ed kw 09:30 GMT December 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
CAD gov. still trying to keep a cheap cad to stimulate exports
Saar KaL 09:11 GMT December 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
USDCAD
could long below
1.0650
maybe very small
could reverse
for TGT 1.0750
not worth it
Saar KaL 09:05 GMT December 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
few shorts audusd above 0.9060
will be happy with 0.8970
change in direction later is possible
Saar KaL 08:59 GMT December 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
will buy aapl call today
Dec 580
what do you think? TIA
Saar KaL 08:51 GMT December 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
NZDUSD
0.7950 could be a great long entry
for 0.8900 area
now little short from monday
Planning to get out at 0.81 at best
then long for longer term tgt
Saar KaL 08:41 GMT December 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
euraud
Small Longs below 1.5140
not planning to stay too long
happy with 1.5270 tgt
Saar KaL 08:00 GMT December 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
eur/usd 1.3677 confirmed
Yes I see it...not worried
Not that much long
will add more wth drops
for tgt 1.3890
=======
Short Silver and gold added here
Hong Kong AceTrader 06:41 GMT December 10, 2013
AceTrade Dec 10 : Daily Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/KRW
Reply
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1052.5
10 Dec 2013 05:50GMT
Usd's breach of y'day's low at 1052.0 suggests
LT downtrend has resumed n downside bias wud be
seen for further weakness to 1048.6.
Hold short with stop as indicated n only abv
1056.1 aborts n risks retracement to 1059.8.
STRATEGY : Short at 1053.4
POSITION : Short at 1053.4
OBJECTIVE : 1049.0
STOP-LOSS : 1055.5
RES : 1054.5/1056.1/1059.8
SUP : 1050.0/1048.6/1045.0
Saar KaL 05:48 GMT December 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
EURUSD wants pick up speed northbound
Now very comfortable till 1.42
Mtl JP 05:40 GMT December 10, 2013
danger... tooot.... danger.... tooot -> to HF and ETF strategizing managers' bonus more likely. How do they calculate their percent take on the paper profit valuation i.e. as of which date exactly ?
to dk 04:49 GMT December 10, 2013
Pipshunter
map euro
ed kw 04:26 GMT December 10, 2013
Pipshunter
gbp/cad fib support poss 1.7560 limit /long hear1.7496
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:06 GMT December 10, 2013
AceTrader Dec 10: Euro rises to fresh 5-week high of 1.3748
Reply
Market Review - 09/12/2013 21:15GMT
Euro rises to fresh 5-week high of 1.3748
The single currency rose to a fresh 5-week high of 1.3748 and a fresh 5-year high of 141.94 against the dollar and the Japanese yen respectively on Monday. U.S. dollar was broadly lower as the latest U.S. jobs report, released on Friday, dampened safe haven demand for the dollar and the yen.
During the day, euro followed Friday's rally on Monday and opened higher to a fresh 6-week high of 1.3748 against the dollar and extended recent upmove against the yen to 141.54 in New Zealand and then 141.94 in late New York. Euro retreated briefly to to 1.3695 and 140.99 respectively ahead of European open on profit-taking. Later, euro rebounded to 1.3746 in late New York due to active cross selling in jpy.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar rose to 103.22 ahead of Asian open Monday and then retreated to 102.89. Later, U.S. dollar rose again to 103.35 in late New York on renewed cross selling in Japanese yen.
Although cable opened lower at 1.6316 in Monday's New Zealand trading, renewed risk appetite after last Friday's upbeat U.S. non-farm payrolls report for November continued to support the pair and sterling later ratcheted higher to 1.6393 in early European trading and then 1.6433 in later New York before easing.
On the data front, reports from German showed on Monday that industrial production in October dropped by 1.2% month/month versus median forecast of an increase of 0.8%.
In other news, ECB's Mersch said at a financial conference in Frankfurt on Monday that 'euro zone inflation to remain very subdued; sees no deflationary risks; have necessary tools for further monetary policy measures; could buy government bonds, but this would have immense political, juridical and economic challenges; buying private instruments could be problematic as would shift risk to tax payers; risk that negative deposits rates would increase borrowing costs; monetary policy can only buy time for reforms, if this time is not used, monetary policy cannot help.'
Data to be release on Tuesday :
Australia home loans, business confidence, business condition, Japan Tertiary industry index, consumer confidence, , machine tools orders, China industrial production, fixed assets investing urban, retail sales, U.K. RICS house price, industrial production, manufacturing production, trade balance, France industrial production, manufacturing production, Italy industrial production, manufacturing production, GDP, U.S. retail sales, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales.
more chart points
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