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Forex Forum Archive for 12/23/2013
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GVI Forex john 23:12 GMT December 23, 2013
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
December 23, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, December 24.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: US- Durable Goods, New Homes Sales/font>
- Far East: JP- Holiday.
- Europe: No Major Data.
- North America: US- Mortgage Statistics, Durable Goods, Richmond Fed, New Homes Sales.
GVI Forex john 20:38 GMT December 23, 2013
#Your Best Trade for Today
#EURUSD It has been a more quiet day than expected today as the Christmas Holiday slowdown has started to set in. U.S. data are due early tomorrow but that should be it until a handful of U.S. prices early on Thursday and then early Friday in Japan.
GVI Forex Blog 18:39 GMT December 23, 2013
Reply
December 23, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, December 24. Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: US- Durable Goods, New Homes Sales
GVI Forex Data Outlook for December 24, 2013
GVI Forex john 18:37 GMT December 23, 2013
Calendar -- Daily Forex Data
Reply
December 23, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Tuesday, December 24.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: US- Durable Goods, New Homes Sales/font>
- Far East: JP- Holiday.
- Europe: No Major Data.
- North America: US- Mortgage Stsistics, Durable Goods, Richmond Fed, New Homes Sales.
GVI Forex john 18:08 GMT December 23, 2013
Fixed Income Snapshot
Late in European trade, prices in prime fixed income markets are weaker as equities rise. Peripheral bond prices are mostly lower.Equities in Europe and the U.S. are mixed.
Mtl JP 18:04 GMT December 23, 2013
On this December 23, 1913 day
Reply
Commemorating the Centennial
100 Years, Federal Reserve System - federalreserve
The Federal Reserve System was created on December 23, 1913, when President Woodrow Wilson signed the Federal Reserve Act into law. The system is composed of a central, independent governmental agency--the Board of Governors--in Washington, D.C., and 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, located in major cities throughout the nation.
Today, the Federal Reserve sets the nation's monetary policy, supervises and regulates banking institutions, maintains the stability of the financial system, and provides financial services to depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign official institutions
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Federal Reserve System Celebrating 100 Years of Funny Money guardian
..."What $1.00 purchased in 1789 could be had for a very reasonable $1.08 by 1913. Measure that against what it costs today for the same amount of goods; roughly $25.00. This means the current value of today�s dollar is about .04 cents of what it was in 1913"...
--
Wilson, be he damned forever, the traitor to The People and the big fool that he was
Mtl JP 16:03 GMT December 23, 2013
Cyprussed (yet to be)
from JP 14:57 Barley WSJ Dec. 22, 2013 "How Crisis Strengthens Europe's Bonds" missive:
..."The deterioration in bank credit quality, coupled with nerves about whether losses would be imposed on investors in senior bank bonds if a bank were to hit trouble is likely to squeeze issuance."...
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Bottom Line:
caveat emptor
Mtl JP 14:57 GMT December 23, 2013
#Your Best Trade for Today
Richard Barley runs a series in WSJ under the "How Crisis Strengthens Europe's Bonds" theme
In his latest WSJ Dec. 22, 2013 How Crisis Strengthens Europe's Bonds" missive he claims that
"The big switch in Europe is a shift away from the dominance of bond issuance by financial companies such as banks and a sharp increase in sales of bonds by utilities and other nonfinancial companies"
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:42 GMT December 23, 2013
#Your Best Trade for Today
This was posted from a bank report on GVI earlier:
...funding in Europe continues to attract attention. The large EUR 20 bill 3y LTRO repayment from Friday remains the story of the day as it was much higher than expected and means that EUR 40 bio of excess liquidity has left the system. It likely means there will be less excess liquidity in January and this could put upward pressure on funding rates. So the currency that everybody loves to hate will probably continue to defy gravity.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:41 GMT December 23, 2013
#Your Best Trade for Today
One source of EUR demand in 2013 came from portfolio flows in a market that had been underweight European equities. Presumably the market is no longer underweight going into 2014
The other has been tight liquidity as banks repay LTRO.
This suggests keeping an eye on EZ short-term interest rates as EUR will likely react if funding pressures ease.
Mtl JP 14:31 GMT December 23, 2013
What Drives Forex Rates?
Q : What Drives Forex Rates?
A : flows
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Holiday period is typically marked by light liquidity.
Bottom Line:
Some may be lurking around waiting with a relatively large order for an opportune moment to maximize movement.
Mtl JP 14:19 GMT December 23, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week
More taper bullsh!t :
IMF says will raise U.S. economic growth forecast
... IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde also praised the U.S. Federal Reserve's communication of its decision last week to start scaling back its massive monetary stimulus.
"Growth is picking up," Lagarde said on NBC's "Meet the Press." "And unemployment is going down. So all of that gives us a much stronger outlook for 2014, which brings us to raising our forecast." .../..
Mtl JP 14:07 GMT December 23, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week
Bernanke Q&A Transcript: Don't Think Purchases Prompted Bubbles
WASHINGTON (MNI) - The following is the transcript of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's response to a question at his Wednesday afternoon news conference: LINK - mni
GVI Forex john 13:38 GMT December 23, 2013
U.S. Personal Income
U.S. CPI and PCE Deflator. Fed Targets PCE Deflator. Well below target.
London Misha 13:31 GMT December 23, 2013
Observations
Reply
EURUSD - Large Spinning Top on Daily. Key Rev Down on Weekly after KR Down & refusal at 1.3832 resistance. Double Top & still support on Lower Tine of AP.
USDJPY - Possible indecisive Spinning Top after Doji Cross (possibly bullish) on Daily Chart.
GBPUSD - 2nd Black Crow after Opening White Marubozo with new high for 2013.
USDCHF - Possible Bearish Harami on Daily Chart but also Double Bottom. Key Reversal Up on Weekly Chart.
EURGBP - Schizophrenic market! Key Reversal Up on Daily Chart 2 days after a KR Down! Meanwhile a KR Down on Weekly Chart!
AUDUSD - Possible Bullish Hammer on Weekly Chart. Jul/Aug-to-date possible Double Bottom on L.Term Charts.
USDINR - Bearish Engulfing Pattern & Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart! Indecisive Spinning Top on Weekly Chart!
USDZAR - Higher but still indecisive 2nd Doji on Daily Chart. Bullish Engulfing Pattern on Weekly Chart.
USDBRL - 2nd Long White Marubozo after Bullish Harami on Daily Chart.
ed kw 13:19 GMT December 23, 2013
#Your Best Trade for Today
heard that eur/usd will go up to stop the shorts than eur zone will have time to strengthen than eur/usd can go down from fed taper // but strong xaueur pulling to down side,last time xaugbp was pulling down
cot report link for gbp not working
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:52 GMT December 23, 2013
#Your Best Trade for Today
FWIW EURUSD 100 hour mva currently 1.3699 (tested), 200 hour 1.3730
Friday's high 1.3708
1,3717 = 50% of 1.3812-1.3622, 1.3739 = 61.8%
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:49 GMT December 23, 2013
#Your Best Trade for Today
Look at the commodity currencies - this is where there seems to be some seasonal demand
Some good calls on this last week
Kaunas DP 12:15 GMT December 23, 2013
#Your Best Trade for Today
Without proper info about volume of flows eur/usd x-rate as of today means nothing... IMHO
GVI Forex john 12:07 GMT December 23, 2013
#Your Best Trade for Today
#EURUSD the U.S. has a fairly heavy pre-holiday data calendar today and Tuesday, we are not expecting a strong reaction to the reports. The highlight for us today is the final University of Michigan Survey.
GVI Forex john 12:02 GMT December 23, 2013
#Your Best Trade for Today
Reply
#EURUSD You can't keep a good man down? I am not a proponent of the EURUSD on a fundamental basis, I think the USD SHOULD be poised for strength in the new year, however EUR demand seems to be ever present for reasons that I cannot identify. I suggest you not get ahead of the markets. Just go with the flows.
Any insights?
GVI Forex john 10:11 GMT December 23, 2013
Daily Forex Market Outlook
Reply
This feature will resume on January 2. Fixed rate Snapshot and #Your Best Trade for Today and other features will continue.
Mtl JP 10:08 GMT December 23, 2013
Fixed Income Snapshot
john 10:07 - bloomberg's chart of the 10-yr note interest
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USGG10YR:IND/chart
is suggestive of wanting to retest sept's 2.9993 high
See it differently ?
GVI Forex john 10:07 GMT December 23, 2013
Fixed Income Snapshot
Reply
Early in European trading hours, prices in prime fixed income markets are mostly weaker heading into a holiday week. The peripheral European bond prices are mixed. Equity markets are mostly higher.
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:28 GMT December 23, 2013
AceTrader Dec 23 : Dollar turns lower against major currencies on long liquidation
Reply
Market Review - 20/12/2013 20:24 GMT
Dollar turns lower against major currencies on long liquidation
The dollar turned lower against other major currencies on Friday on long liquidation, erased early gains on upbeat U.S. economic growth data and the Federal Reserve's decision to begin tapering its stimulus program.
During the day, although euro remained under pressure in Asia and fell to 1.3625 after Standard & Poor's cut its supranational long-term rating on the European Union to AA+ from AAA, cross-related buying of euro lifted price to 1.3663 in early European trading before dropping back to 1.3632 in New York morning on upbeat U.S. gross domestic product data. Later, dollar's renewed broad-based weakness lifted price again and price subsequent rallied to 1.3710 after report showed improving euro zone consumer confidence in December before retreating, last seen around 1.3667 near New York closing.
On the data front, report showed U.S. gross domestic product advanced 4.1 percent in third quarter, the fastest in two years and the second biggest since the country's steep recession officially ended in mid-2009.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar edged higher in Asia and briefly rose to 104.59 before easing, price later strengthened to a fresh 5-year peak at 104.64 in New York morning after release of better-than-expected U.S. GDP and personal consumption, however, lack of follow through buying prompted long liquidation and price subsequent tumbled to 103.85 before stabilising.
Cable tracked euro's movement closely on Friday, although price penetrated Thursday's low at 1.6335 in European morning to 1.6319 and then rebounded to 1.6369, price fell again and hit a fresh session low at 1.6315 in New York morning but only to rallied to 1.6395 before easing.
Earlier, official data showed that the U.K. current account deficit widened to 20.7 billion pounds in the third quarter, from 6.2 billion pounds in the three months to June, while a separate report showed that the U.K. gross domestic product expanded by 0.8% in the third quarter, in line with market expectation.
In other news, BOJ's Governor Kuroda said on Friday that 'Fed's start of tapering reflects steady recovery in U.S. economy; correction in excessive yen strength has been positive for Japan's economy; no chance to view japan to steadily head towards 2% inflation despite economic fluctuation from sales tax hike; correction in yen strength has boosted corporate profits and improved sentiment; BOJ's existing two loan schemes have played key roles, will mull if to extend deadlines; BOJ monetary policy not aimed at forex markets; Japan consumer inflation to slightly exceed 1% by year end; don't expect April sales tax hike to cause big problem.'
Data to be released next week:
Swiss UBS consumption indicator, Italy consumer confidence, Canada GDP, U.S. Chicago Fed index, personal income, personal consumption, PCE, University of Michigan consumer confidence on Monday. Japan financial markets are closed due to public holiday.
France GDP, U.K. BBA mortgage approvals, U.S. durable goods, Redbook retail sales, house price index, New home sales on Tuesday
No economic data is released on Wednesday. Australia, New Zealand, France, U.K., Swiss, Germany, U.S. and Canada financial market are closed due to Christmas day.
Japan manufacturing PMI, BOJ MPC minutes, housing starts, construction orders, U.S. jobless claims. on Thursday. Australia, New Zealand, Germany, France, U.K. Canada financial markets are closed due to boxing day.
Japan household spending, unemployment rate, CPI, industrial production, retail sales, France PPI on Friday.
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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan
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