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Forex Forum Archive for 05/1/2013

Pick a date from the header above to view forum postings for that day.
Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


Belgrade TD 23:37 GMT May 1, 2013
Daily TA trade

Belgrade TD 13:36:46 GMT - 05/01/2013
... and bought nzd/usd ~0,85 (intraday) ... stop ~ 0,847 ... target later
///
out of this ... time for bed ... GLGT

GVI Forex Blog 21:14 GMT May 1, 2013 Reply   
Outlooks Event risk today: Looking ahead today, Australian terms of trade and building permits are minor movers. Most important will be tonight’s ECB meeting, a rate cut expected. NZD/USD should push below 0.8480 given the weak run of global data during the past few days.

Forex - Westpac Morning Report

Cambridge Joe 20:48 GMT May 1, 2013
IF.. !
Reply   
** IF ** USDCAD takes 0052 before 16:00 GMT 2nd May..AND .. remains lower than 0059 until that time, then, significant buying takes place.... possibly enough to mirror the recent down move. So it looks to me ! IMO. GL

Mtl JP 20:38 GMT May 1, 2013
Chart Points

john 19:50 what is the rule used to come up with the fibos on the chartpoints ? tia

GVI Forex john bland 20:25 GMT May 1, 2013
No Fed surprise. ADP jobs soft. ECB rate cut Thursday?
Reply   

  • HIGH IMPACT ITEMS:  CN- HSBC PMI, EZ- Mfg PMI, ECB, US- Trade, Weekly Jobs
  • The FOMC decision Wednesday was cautious to neutral as expected. They explicitly left the door open to an increase or decrease in bond purchases depending on economic data. Bottom-line future policy decisions are data dependent.
  • U.S. data released over the day were mostly weaker than expected.
  • U.K. April Manufacturing PMI at 49.8 was virtually at the "50" expansion level. It suggests a steady policy from the BOE next Thursday. .
  • The ECB decision Thursday is key. On Wednesday an unnamed ECB official appeared to signal a rate cut is in store.This  would have little impact on the economy but send a support message. There is a lot of room for a disappointment  if there is no ECB action.
  • Japanese Golden Week holidays continue off and on all week..
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
EURUSD 1.3060
JGB 0.59% -2bp
Asia:Mixed
USDJPY 98.45
Bund 1.22% +2bp
Europe Higher
EURJPY 128.59
U.S.1.64%  -3bp
U.S.:Lower

GVI Forex Blog 20:24 GMT May 1, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CN- HSBC PMI, EZ- Mfg PMI, ECB, US- Trade, Weekly Jobs The FOMC decision Wednesday was cautious to neutral as expected. They explicitly left the door open to an increase or decrease in bond purchases depending on economic data. Bottom-line future policy decisions are data dependent.

No Fed surprise. ADP jobs soft. ECB rate cut Thursday?

london red 20:03 GMT May 1, 2013
-
Reply   
cable failed at 15506 50% fibo and has retreated markedly. Tomorrow will be an important day. If tomorrows high is in the region of current levels (5550/70) then we could be looking at some multiday weakness in the pair with initial risk down to 15400. Fibo needs to ne taken to negate risk to downside.

GVI Forex john bland 19:50 GMT May 1, 2013
Chart Points

Preliminary Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands


GVI Forex Free FX Database 19:44 GMT May 1, 2013
Chart Points
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

dc CB 19:07 GMT May 1, 2013
Auctions
Reply   


next week Treas will auction off 2 Brand New issues...10Y and a 30Y...

imho somethings got to give...either more Fear needs to come into the market or the Yield needs to rise. Logical, but then it could be that "this time it's different"

10-YEAR NOTE 912828VB3 05-08-2013

30-YEAR BOND 912810RB6 05-09-2013

dc CB 18:39 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

I'm sure at least Ben knows what the cooked # will be.

But nevertheless...It's Mario's Shot to trigger the Algos.

Almost like golf...except much less honest

JERUSALEM KB 18:33 GMT May 1, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels

Sell AUDCAD
Entry: 1.0464 Target: 1.0175 Stop: 1.0410

AUDCAD
Entry: Target: Stop:

THIS WILL BE A NICE TRADE SETUP , there is a support breakout on daily and current candle is trying to close above support .
if it closes below support again i will go short for 1.0175 with stop above 1.0525.
========
closed half with 105pips+

Mtl JP 18:26 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

dc CB maybe the FOMC gang already knows that the NFP will print 44K on Friday

dc CB 18:24 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

your shot

Msrs Draggi

dc CB 18:13 GMT May 1, 2013
United States



The Committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes.


such (c*^^K)teasers... they are

dc CB 18:10 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

PORSCHE REPORTS BEST SALES MONTH IN HISTORY; DELIVERIES UP 29%

Volkswagen, the region’s leading automaker, as vehicle sales on the Continent have declined to their lowest levels in decades.

At Volkswagen, the company’s Audi luxury brand is the bright spot in its lineup. Audi, which has posted a 16 percent sales increase in the United States this year, contributed more than two-thirds of overall profits that VW earned in the first quarter. .
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Hamptons baby Boxers, 911s. TTs fun in the sun


GVI Forex john bland 18:04 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

FOMC

Fed Policy Statement

Mtl JP 18:03 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

and... the Committee decided to continue purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month and longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per month.

GVI Forex john bland 18:00 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

-- ALERT --
U.S. Fed Policy Decision
Rates: Unchanged


TTN: Live News Special Offer

london red 17:52 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

dovish wording is what consensus is looking for, to what extent we get this will make itself known when the statement is released. i think usdjpy has capacity to run towards 96 area but there will be plenty of buyers down there as always on dips and think that would be a good trade down there particularly if you are already short usd elsewhere. think euro may well hit stops above 13250 but may struggle to hold gains as i expect some will sell there into tomorrows rates decision - it does depend a lot on what is said by the fed but you have to expect some to take positions at 2 month highs and this may hinder progress. pmi does come ahead of the meeting and might offer a good opportunity but does depend on where the pair is at the time tomorrow morning.

GVI Forex john bland 17:52 GMT May 1, 2013
United States


HEADS-UP: Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update
EURUSD= 1.3195
GBPUSD= 1.5588
USDJPY= 97.16

Direct links to primary data sources

ed kw 17:49 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

all COTs are busted

Mtl JP 17:34 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

FOMC
"None of the 47 economists in the Bloomberg survey taken April 25-29 expects a decision at this week’s meeting to change the pace of purchases"

GVI Forex Blog 17:07 GMT May 1, 2013 Reply   
May 1, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, May 2. Updated: Trading Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: CN- HSBC PMI, EZ- Mfg PMI, EcB, US- Trade, Weekly Jobs.

GVI Forex Data Outlook for 2 May 2013

GVI Forex john bland 17:05 GMT May 1, 2013
Calendar
Reply   


May 1, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Thursday, May 2. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: CN- HSBC PMI, EZ- Mfg PMI, EcB, US- Trade, Weekly Jobs.

  • Far East: JP- BoJ Minutes, CN- HSBC final PMI.
  • Europe: EZ/CH/DE/FR- Mfg PMIs, ECB Rates.
  • North America: CA- Trade, US- Trade, Productivity, Weekly Jobless, Natural Gas.


  • Direct links to primary data sources


GVI Forex john bland 16:05 GMT May 1, 2013
Fixed Income

Major bond market prices mostly stronger. U.S. 10-yr falls to 1.63% -4bp after data. Peripherals stronger.

dc CB 16:04 GMT May 1, 2013
High-Frequency Frontrunning CME Edition
Reply   
Stop us when all of this sounds familiar.

High-speed traders are using a hidden facet of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's computer system to trade on the direction of the futures market before other investors get the same information.
..............profit from their ability to detect when their own orders for certain commodities are executed a fraction of a second before the rest of the market sees that data......
use these early looks at CME trading data in several ways. One strategy is to post buy and sell orders a few pennies from where the market is trading and wait until one of the orders is executed. If crude oil is selling for $90 on the CME, a firm might post an order to sell one contract for $90.03 and a buy order for $89.97.

If the sell order suddenly hits, the firm's computers detect that oil prices have swung higher. Those computers can instantly buy more of the same contract before other traders are even aware of the first move.

Grand Theft Market

dc CB 15:54 GMT May 1, 2013
crude plunge



the DOE just released a much higher than expected build in crude inventories that took the stuffed-channel of oil products to all-time highs. The 395.3 million barrels is higher than the previous record in July 1990. There appears to be a number of factors at play - none of which are positive.

But perhaps most important, as EIA data has shown, there has been a collapse in end demand for crude products not seen since the 1990s.

Crude Inventories Surge To Record High As Energy Demand Collapses

GVI Forex john bland 15:45 GMT May 1, 2013
ECB
Reply   
Reports unnamed ECB source saying conditions for a rate cut exist.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Is this the signal we have been waiting for?

Lahore FM 15:17 GMT May 1, 2013
crude plunge
Reply   
Sell Crude
Entry: Target: Stop:

will go to 85 on june contract sooner rather than later.

Belgrade TD 14:46 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

perth wtr 14:37 GMT May 1, 2013
maybe during the summer ... anyway I'm not going to complain ... trading is doing quite well ... but sometimes "markets" insult the intelligence ... GLGT

Hyderabad krishna 14:43 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

what is the preferred buy zone for euro. and cable...

Belgrade TD 14:38 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

FOMC will announce the continuation of 0% rates and the Fed’s open-market bond buying programs with unparalleled success of this program (as Wall Street is concerned) ...

perth wtr 14:37 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

TD, risk-off and liquidity theme?

Belgrade TD 14:35 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

... based on Dallas Fed’s monthly survey of regional manufacturing activity we were expecting weak growth at best ... but this report was a disaster ... Washington’s economists had told us to expect a top line number +5.0, a moderate drop from last month’s +7.4 ... we saw a drop to -15.6 ... and any reading above zero indicates economic expansion, and any reading below zero represents contraction – the required signal of the beginning of a recession ... and this wasn’t just one small piece of the puzzle that could be ignored …
- Production fell from +9.9 to -0.5.
- The shipments sub-component fell from +10.6 to -0.4.
- And looking forward, index’s new orders sub-component fell from +8.7 to -4.9 ...
result - new high :) ... well, right now, you/we just can’t fight an organization that can get away with inventing a trillion dollars a year ... and "central bank stock support" is just another name for monopoly ...

GVI Forex john bland 14:33 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

Big increase in crude supplies, but prices somehow hang in there.

GVI Forex john bland 14:31 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

-- ALERT --
Crude Oil: +6.69 vs. +1.0 exp vs. 0.947 prev.
Gasoline: -1.82 vs. -0.5 vs. -3.930 prev.
Distillates:+0.475 vs. +0.5 exp vs. +0.100 prev.
Cap/Util: 84.4% vs. 84.2% exp. vs. 83.50% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex john bland 14:30 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

HEADS-UP: Data Due shortly
(see top of Forum for details)
Crude = $91.00

Direct links to primary data sources

manila tom 14:29 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

more crazy printing ahead, get some more printing machine made in china, inflation is like chasing utopia

manila tom 14:28 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

agree john, next FOMC language will be expanding QE to no limit, Fed has no choice, hot money everywhere, stocks to go

Belgrade TD 14:24 GMT May 1, 2013
Daily TA trade



Sell OTHER
Entry: Target: Stop:

Sold DOW ~ 14729 (fut) ... cautiously but am hoping for some big numbers here ... or am I just stubborn :) ... anyway stop ~14800 ... first target ~14400 ... than will see

ed kw 14:23 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

gbp and eur are up from aud

Hyderabad Krishna 14:20 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

what is the preferred buy zone for euro. and cable....

GVI Forex john bland 14:20 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

TD- actually perversely that's why it matters. Weak data everywhere has been supportive of equities because investors are saying that the central banks (Fed, BOJ, ECB, etc.) will continue to support stocks. They say stocks are a discounting mechanism. If the data starts to improve significantly Im not sure what equities would do.

manila tom 14:19 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

agree red, intraday buy zone approaching for euro and cable, stop below half yesterday's range should do

london red 14:16 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

First decent pullback move down down 100 day sma mid 50's worth fading ahead of fomc with stop slightly below

Belgrade TD 14:15 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

This is absolute proof that nobody thinks about the real economy ... Main Street could burn down tomorrow or today and the stock market would still go up because this would allow the FED to continue to support Wall Street with trillions or some new bigger numbers ... so who really care about data

GVI Forex john bland 14:14 GMT May 1, 2013
United States



U.S./Eurozone PMIs Trend in the two U.S. indices drifting southward...

Lahore FM 14:14 GMT May 1, 2013
sell usd

manila tom 14:10 GMT May 1, 2013
sell usd: Reply

we will see Tom..i will be around !

manila tom 14:10 GMT May 1, 2013
sell usd

FM, i dont think so! multiple failures against 200 weekly ema, staying under parity will kill usdcad, only a strong, quick and decisive move above 200 ema on weekly closing basis for 2 weeks in a row then i think you have a chance

london red 14:04 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

For me very early estimate for nfp taking into account todays data/indicies points to something around 100k. Ivbs are still reacting but so far looking for around 140/150k

Lahore FM 14:03 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

teetering over the contractionary edge!

GVI Forex john bland 14:02 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

more weak data

GVI Forex john bland 14:01 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

-- ALERT --
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI April 2013
50.7 vs. 51.0 exp. vs. 51.3 prev.

Mfg PMI Employment
50.2 vs. n/a exp. vs. 54.2 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john bland 14:01 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

-- ALERT --
Construction Spending March 2013
-1.7% vs. +0.80% exp. vs. +1.20% prev. (+1.50%r.)


TTN: Live News Special Offer




Direct links to primary data sources

london red 13:54 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

Estimates have been lowered for this one also so bar is low on this one as well.

GVI Forex john bland 13:46 GMT May 1, 2013
United States
Reply   


HEADS-UP: Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update
EURUSD= 1.3211
GBPUSD= 1.5572
USDJPY= 97.20

Direct links to primary data sources

Lahore FM 13:45 GMT May 1, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Pak 09:06 GMT May 1, 2013
" Trade Ideas " : Reply
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

FM! Whats the minimum target of this short position?
--
below 1.30

Lahore FM 13:45 GMT May 1, 2013
sell usd

manila tom 12:14 GMT May 1, 2013
sell usd: Reply
Usdcad under parity would be nice
--
usdcad heading for 1.20 by december imo!

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:43 GMT May 1, 2013
Daily TA trade

TD, check your email

Belgrade TD 13:36 GMT May 1, 2013
Daily TA trade

Belgrade TD 17:11:16 GMT - 04/26/2013
Buy EURNZD ... Entry: ~1.532 Target: ~1.55 Stop: ~1.525
///
1/3 out ~ 1.539 ... stop at BE for rest
///
another 1/3 out ~1,551 ... stop at 1,546 for last one and target 1,556 ...
///
close last ~1,555 and bought nzd/usd ~0,85 (intraday) ... stop ~ 0,847 ... target later

HK Kevin 13:28 GMT May 1, 2013
AUD & NZD
Reply   
The twin has gone. Wonderful!

Belgrade TD 13:23 GMT May 1, 2013
Daily TA trade

Belgrade TD 17:11:16 GMT - 04/26/2013
Buy EURNZD ... Entry: ~1.532 Target: ~1.55 Stop: ~1.525
///
1/3 out ~ 1.539 ... stop at BE for rest
///
another 1/3 out ~1,551 ... stop at 1,546 for last one and target 1,556 ...

manila tom 13:13 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

Red, thats gonna be a looooong summer holiday for cable till july especially those losing shorts

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:09 GMT May 1, 2013
What You Will Not Find in a Trading Book
Reply   
jay meisler

-- What You Won't Find in a Trading Book--

I am holding a webinar on Thursday 16:00 GMT to discuss my trading system whose goal is trading with reduced risk.

You can also request a different time as we will be holding another one next week to cover different time zones.

Space is limited. To reserve your spot, send me an EMAIL

london red 13:08 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

John its a pretty good beat if you take into account revisions lower to about 50.5 avg after yesterdays poor sub 50 number. Think that puts top on euro until fomc.

manila tom 13:08 GMT May 1, 2013
eur

Wait till 1.37777

GVI Forex john bland 13:07 GMT May 1, 2013
United States



U.S. final Markit Mfg PMI. Minor upward revision to flash estimate...

hk ab 13:00 GMT May 1, 2013
eur
Reply   
Zeus, are you around to sell your lovely baby eur?

GVI Forex john bland 12:58 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

-- ALERT --
U.S. Markit final Manufacturing PMI April 2013
52.1 vs. 52.0 exp. vs. 52.0 prev


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 12:56 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

at 1.56 gbpusd is now a play on Jan-March 50% fib

singapore td 12:52 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

Tom, you know what to do :) previous euro resistance now immediate support, buy some for me if seen, I'll be away for a while, back later

GVI Forex john bland 12:45 GMT May 1, 2013
United States


HEADS-UP: Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update
EURUSD= 1.3228
GBPUSD= 1.5582
USDJPY= 97.24

Direct links to primary data sources

manila tom 12:45 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

Td, more us data coming next, more new lows for usd ;) you have a very easy and fantastic night today

london red 12:44 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

JP this/he is what will cause cable pain come july. i think 1.56-1.60 is going be the top for it unless there is a major dollar foall out between now and july. june will be an interesting month as of course july.

Belgrade TD 12:44 GMT May 1, 2013
Daily TA trade

Belgrade TD 14:51:20 GMT - 04/26/2013
Buy EURAUD ... Entry: 1.266 Target: ~1.28+ Stop: ~1.26 ...
///
1/3 out ~ 1.274 ... stop at BE for rest
///
out rest ~ 1,281 ...

singapore td 12:36 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

It is nice now looking back at hindsight, 1.30 was a nice bottom for euro :) some may wish they bought instead

Mtl JP 12:30 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

Red fwiw your new BoE cheese giving a yak later this eve titled 'The Future of Monetary Policy'
text coming out at 5:50pm EST

GVI Forex john bland 12:22 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

Monthly jobs U.S. ADP Private Payrolls a bit weaker than expected but within the range of error. USD negative?



Click on chart for more than 10-yr history

Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 12:21 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

5 minutes post-release -31K adp miss ellicits +20pip eurodlr reaction

london red 12:20 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

on soft adp expect more revisions lower from ivb for friday nonfarms and that is going to keep usd soft until ism later today. euros stops expected above 50 while will probably coincide with cable break of 50% fibo at 06

singapore td 12:18 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

Another data another low for usd :) adp was bad, fed would be super dovish, nfp super weak

GVI Forex john bland 12:15 GMT May 1, 2013
United States

-- ALERT --
U.S. ADP Private Employment April 2013
+119K vs. +150K exp. vs. +158K prev.(131r)


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

manila tom 12:14 GMT May 1, 2013
sell usd

Usdcad under parity would be nice

Mtl JP 12:08 GMT May 1, 2013
sell usd

hopeless ? playres are pricing in a dovish FED

lets see IF ADP can miss estimates by +/- 50K jobs for a 50pip reaction

GVI Forex john bland 12:00 GMT May 1, 2013
United States


HEADS-UP: Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update
EURUSD= 1.3219
GBPUSD= 1.5570
USDJPY= 97.45

Direct links to primary data sources

jkt abel 11:29 GMT May 1, 2013
sell usd
Reply   
Usdcad below 200 daily ema 2 days in a row now. Hopeless.

SaR KaL 11:27 GMT May 1, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

EURUSD is Bullish but time to PT for me

1.3225 1.2979 1
1.3287 1.2919 2
1.3349 1.2859 4
1.3411 1.2800 6
1.3473 1.2741 9

1.3232 1.2914 (Acc Mean)

rebuy around 1.2950

jkt abel 11:24 GMT May 1, 2013
buy euro

Td, you are absolutely right about kissing usd good bye. F.xcm usdollar index has confirmed double top you mentioned before at the end of its recent bull run

GVI Forex john bland 11:23 GMT May 1, 2013
Eurozone
Reply   


ECB meeting Thursday a major event. You can see a steady downward bias in the 10-yr bund yield. I have heard 1.16% is its all time low. Lots of speculation about a 25bp cut in the refi rate target to 0.50%.

GVI Forex john bland 11:13 GMT May 1, 2013
United States
Reply   


United States Interest rates. Pre-Fed shapshot. Markets not looking for muuch today.

singapore td 11:08 GMT May 1, 2013
buy euro
Reply   
Easy, too easy 1.32 done :) another day another figure taken so in 5 days 1.37 will be reached

ed kw 10:47 GMT May 1, 2013
cable

gbp strength and aud week

ed kw 01:03 GMT April 19, 2013
gbp/aud : Reply
gbp/aud might be a bigger trade chart is looking to trust up

GVI Forex 10:30 GMT May 1, 2013
Global Markets News
Reply   
FX price action was overall subdued as most of Europe was closed for today's Labour Day holiday. The USD maintained its soft tone after Tuesday's plunge on mixed US data. Markets will now eye the FOMC rate decision later today with rising expectations that the language from the Fed today could be more dovish

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: USD Index at 2-month lows ahead of FOMC Rate decision with rising expectations that the language could be more dovish; UK PMI Manufacturing beats expectations

london red 10:30 GMT May 1, 2013
cable
Reply   
intraday support at 45/50. longs there could work as plenty will be looking to get long after better manf. data.

GVI Forex john bland 09:20 GMT May 1, 2013
Australia



AU PMI weakens even further...

GVI Forex john bland 09:18 GMT May 1, 2013
Australia
Reply   

-- EARLIER --
Australia PMI April 2013
36.7 vs. n/a exp. vs. 44.4 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john bland 09:08 GMT May 1, 2013
Waiting for the Fed and key ADP data. May Day holiday today
Reply   

  • HIGH IMPACT ITEMS:  ADP Jobs, FOMC
  • Focus on the FOMC.  Their decision  should be cautious Wednesday deferring any trimming of Quantitative Ease (QE).
  • UK April Manufacturing PMI at 49.8 was virtually at the "50" expansion level. It suggests a steady policy from the BOE next Thursday. .
  • The ECB decision Thursday is key. So far the Draghi has not tipped his hand.. Professional forecasters  seem to expect  a psychological -25bp cut in the 0.75% refi rate. This  would have little impact on the economy but send a support message.Look out. there is a lot of room for a disappointment (no ECB action)..
  • Today is the May Day holiday in many countries. Japanese Golden Week holidays continue off and on all week..
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
EURUSD 1.3043
JGB 0.59% -2bp
Asia:Mixed
USDJPY 98.23
Bund 1.22% +2bp
Europe Higher
EURJPY 128.13
U.S.1.67%  0bp
U.S.:Higher

GVI Forex Blog 09:08 GMT May 1, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: ADP Jobs, FOMC Focus on the FOMC. Their decision should be cautious Wednesday deferring any trimming of Quantitative Ease (QE). UK April Manufacturing PMI at 49.8 was virtually at the "50" expansion level. It suggests a steady policy from the BOE next Thursday. .

Waiting for the Fed and key ADP data. May Day holiday today

Pak 09:06 GMT May 1, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

FM! Whats the minimum target of this short position?

kl shawn 09:00 GMT May 1, 2013
-

good one td, thanks for the heads up everytime with your persistent calls to sell usd
you are fighting alone against many big names around and still winning, like your style, cheers, keep it up

singapore td 08:55 GMT May 1, 2013
-

red, it worries me not, as long as we see new highs every day then we have got a trend especially a good one like we are currently witnessing, any pullback will do as eventually we will be making new highs anyway following the trend, more top picker sellers are most welcome, more stops merrier and better the hunting will be

watching a very nice and easy show here, money to be made with tremendous help from top pickers

Kaunas DP 08:54 GMT May 1, 2013
eur/usd
Reply   
Kaunas DP 11:44 GMT April 26, 2013
The seeds are sown ... !: Reply
Buy EURUSD
Entry: 1.3005 Target: open Stop: 1.2975

lets see 1.3022 hit before the data and then we will see... GL/GT

//////

closed at 1.3194

Belgrade TD 08:50 GMT May 1, 2013
Daily TA trade

*update
Buy EURNZD ... Entry: ~1.532 Target: ~1.55 ...
1/3 out ~ 1.539 ... stop at BE for rest
***
Buy EURAUD ... Entry: 1.266 Target: ~1.28+
1/3 out ~ 1.274 ... stop at BE for rest
***
earler:
Sell EURUSD stoped for ~ -60 (minus)
***
Sell Dow closed for some + ... looking for new sell during this week ...

GVI Forex john bland 08:48 GMT May 1, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply   
Major bond market prices mostly stronger. Peripherals stronger.

london red 08:40 GMT May 1, 2013
-
Reply   
cable 50% fibo 15606, decent data but currently struggling ahead of fibo. break targets 1.58 but be aware these are lofty levels for cable and sentiment will can sour quickly.
euro res at 13200/20/30. Common held view (not mine btw) that this region marks top. so should hold until fomc barring data surprises this afternoon. but an eventual break will see a lot of stops (certain most pain in this direction) and could see 13350 by end of week. need an event for this to happen tho imo as too much sell interest as is.

Cambridge Joe 08:39 GMT May 1, 2013
United Kingdom

td & Tom good for UK certainly agreed and overdue !

Still on for 17:00 tomorrow tho. IMO.GL.

manila tom 08:35 GMT May 1, 2013
United Kingdom

gbpusd should be firm, no more worries over economy like a few months back

singapore td 08:33 GMT May 1, 2013
United Kingdom

another good number in UK, this is more like it, UK doesnt need to do anything, not like US unlimited QE with mediocre result

GVI Forex john bland 08:33 GMT May 1, 2013
United Kingdom



U.K. PMIs Manufacturing PMI better than expected. Some signs of economic stabilization in the U.K.

GVI Forex john bland 08:29 GMT May 1, 2013
United Kingdom

-- ALERT --
GB Manufacturing PMI April 2013
49.8 vs. 48.5 exp. vs. 48.6 rev prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john bland 08:25 GMT May 1, 2013
China
Reply   


China PMI National PMI contracts...

Cambridge Joe 08:25 GMT May 1, 2013
Cable
Reply   
Barring any significant change in current trajectory, Cable looks to soften significantly around 17:00 GMT 2/ Apr. IMO. GL

GVI Forex john bland 08:21 GMT May 1, 2013
China
Reply   

-- EARLIER --
China PMIs April 2013
NBS: 50.6 vs. 50.7 exp vs. 50.9 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

Hong Kong AceTrader 08:17 GMT May 1, 2013
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD: May 1, 2013
Reply   


DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD

Last Update At 01 May 2013 01:14GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Rising

21 HR EMA
1.5524

55 HR EMA
1.5500

Trend Hourly Chart
Up

Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences

13 HR RSI
60

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
One more rise b4 retreat

Resistance
1.5690 - Feb 13 top
1.5606 - 50% r of 1.6380-1.4832
1.5570 - Y'day's high

Support
1.5518 - Y'day's European high
1.5467 - Y'day's low
1.5418 - Last Fri's low

. GBP/USD - 1.5537... Although the British pound retreated fm Mon's high at 1.5547 to 1.5467 in European morning y'day, cross buying of stg vs euro lifted the pair to 1.5518 b4 falling to 1.5474. However, dollar's broad-based weakness pushed price abv 1.5547 to a fresh 10-week high at 1.5570 in NY morning.

. Cable's breach of 1.5547 res to 1.5570 signals upmove fm Mar's 2-1/2 year low at 1.4832 to correct MT decline fm 1.6747 (2011 peak) has once again resumed n further gain twd 1.5606, being a 'natural' 50% of 1.6380-1.4832, wud be seen after consolidation, however, as said 1.5570 high was accompanied by prominent 'bearish divergences' on hourly indicators, suggesting strg rise abv 1.5606 is unlikely n price shud hold below 1.5630 (Feb 5 low) n bring much-needed correction. On the downside, below 1.5518 wud yield weakness to 1.5467 but break is needed to confirm a temporary top is made n bring stronger retrace. twd 1.5418.

. Today, in view of abv analysis, we're trading cable on both sides of the market n wud buy on dips for gain to indicated objective or sell if price climbs twd 1.5606 1st for subsequent retreat twd 1.5518, break confirms top, 1.5467.

singapore td 08:16 GMT May 1, 2013
-

thanks red, all that points to buy dips strategy for euro and cable, i agree with the dovish FOMC later, NFP has been a disaster for usd bulls

GVI Forex john bland 08:16 GMT May 1, 2013
United Kingdom
Reply   


HEADS-UP: Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update
EURUSD= 1.3180
GBPUSD= 1.5540
USDJPY= 97.55

Direct links to primary data sources

london red 08:13 GMT May 1, 2013
-
Reply   
more and more talk of fed possibly talking about adding to QE rather than tapering. sparse last week, more apparent this week amongst ivb comment. this is lending support to euro and cable. cips man pmi in 15 minutes is a risk factor for cable but should be supported lower down in event of any soft number (exp 48.6 prev 48.3), with markets expectation of dovish fomc this evening, this should keep cap on dollar at least until adp and ism this afternoon. adp will be closely watched as a hint towards fridays non farms but any strong number can be faded (timing will be required possibly tomorrow) as non farm are probably going to surprise on downside given speed of falloff in other datas.

Lahore FM 08:11 GMT May 1, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3183 Target: Stop: 1.3265

sold now.

UK Percy 07:59 GMT May 1, 2013
Manufacturing slumps to GFC lows

Confucius say" Fool is a man with cap gun who no listen to man with Bazooka".

ed kw 07:52 GMT May 1, 2013
Manufacturing slumps to GFC lows

The double top is a frequent price formation at the end of a bull market

this year charts are test ,,retest,, then retest burst it

GVI Forex 07:37 GMT May 1, 2013
Wednesday
Reply   
1st May 2013

Overnight News

• China Manufacturing PMI slips to 50.6 in April
• Australia AIG PMI falls sharply to 36.7 in April, from 44.4, now at lowest level since 2009

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

• Risks of further USD weakness on softer US data. Key focus Manufacturing ISM, ADP and FOMC
• UK Manufacturing PMI - modest improvement expected but to remain in contractionary territory


Lloyds Bank Market Strategy Daily

Syd 06:49 GMT May 1, 2013
- Source TradeTheNews.com
Reply   
(AU) Australia Apr RBA Commodity Price Index Au: 86.2 v 87.9 prior; Commodity Index SDR Y/Y: -6.5% v -7.5% prior - Source TradeTheNews.com

Syd 06:02 GMT May 1, 2013
Australia
Reply   


Ooops, the coffers are empty we have trashed the cash
Swan says "Australia remain longer in deficit than previous expected" we went on a spending spree when we came to office as we always dooooooo

Syd 05:50 GMT May 1, 2013
U.S. Home Prices Continue to Pick Up Speed
Reply   
Rising home prices also juice the homebuilding sector because it makes it more profitable to build homes again, a plus for industries ranging from homebuilding and construction to furniture and appliance makers.

LINK

Syd 05:31 GMT May 1, 2013
(FR) Leaked German report on France
Reply   
(FR) Leaked German report on France saying its industry is becoming less and less competitive as business moves offshore - Handelsblatt- Notes that France's labor costs have risen sharply. - "The proud neighbor" French "threatens to become the sick man of Europe". - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Blog 05:29 GMT May 1, 2013 Reply   
(CN) CHINA APR MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.6 V 50.7E (7th month of expansion) - (JP) JAPAN MAR LABOR CASH EARNINGS Y/Y: -0.6% V -1.2%E (2nd straight decline) - (KR) SOUTH KOREA APR EXT TRADE BALANCE: $2.6B

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Nikkei225, Australia market down; China manufacturing unexpectedly slips***Economic Data*** - Source TradeTheNews.com

Syd 05:28 GMT May 1, 2013
China Manufacturing Growth Slows In April
Reply   
Chinese manufacturing activity expanded at a slower rate in April, as new orders and production growth eased, underpinning concerns that the recovery at the world's second largest economy still remained fragile.

The purchasing managers' index that measures the performance of the manufacturing sector, fell to 50.6 in April from 50.9 in March, a survey by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, or CFLP, and the National Bureau of Statistics revealed Wednesday.

Economists expected a slightly higher reading of 50.7. Readings above 50 indicates expansion of the sector. The PMI has now remained in the growth zone for seven consecutive months.

The growth in new orders moderated, with the corresponding index falling to 51.7 from 52.3 in March. The production index dropped to 52.6 from 52.7 in the preceding month.

Preliminary results of a survey by Markit Economics and HSBC released last month also suggested that the rate of growth of the manufacturing sector eased, mainly reflecting a fall in new export orders.

The government aims a 7.5 percent expansion in GDP this year after growth plunged to a 13-year low of 7.8 percent in 2012.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund expects China to grow 8 percent this year and by 8.2 percent in 2014, weaker than previously forecast. The World Bank also cut its 2013 growth outlook for the economy to 8.3 percent.

RTT

Syd 05:06 GMT May 1, 2013
Business to share budget burden: Wayne Swan
Reply   
WAYNE Swan has signalled big business will be forced to make sacrifices in the upcoming federal budget to help fund Labor's signature social reforms.

really sticking the knife in now

singapore td 04:47 GMT May 1, 2013
Manufacturing slumps to GFC lows

thanks AL but I have conviction in my direction so far, we'll see...
euro for me is heading to 1.37 like viies also said

Dillon AL 04:43 GMT May 1, 2013
Manufacturing slumps to GFC lows

TD you miss the point of the word "end". The double top you see is therefore not a 2x top. I have suggested a crystal clear entry point on the DX that allows entry in the direction of the prevailing trend on strength nothing more nothing less and I qualified the statement by saying that whilst it was below you may well be right your view
Trading is about seeing both sides of an argument and about being flexible

Syd 04:26 GMT May 1, 2013
Medicare levy hike to fund NDIS:
Reply   


The federal government will partially fund its National Disability Insurance Scheme through a 0.5 percentage point increase to the medicare levy, The Australian Financial Review reports.

According to the newspaper, the increase will raise $3.2 billion per year, which is roughly 40 per cent of the estimated $8 billion of extra funding required annually to fund the NDIS.

It is understood the prime minister may make the announcement as early as today during an address in Melbourne.

The AFR reports the government considered a range of funding options including a separate NDIS levy and an incremental increase to marginal income tax rates, before settling on a lift to Medicare levy.

singapore td 04:26 GMT May 1, 2013
Manufacturing slumps to GFC lows
Reply   
thanks AL, that's signalling end of the bull market for USDOLLAR index of f.xcm

Dillon AL 04:21 GMT May 1, 2013 - My Profile
Manufacturing slumps to GFC lows: Reply
............The double top is a frequent price formation at the end of a bull market. ..............

Syd 04:25 GMT May 1, 2013
NDIS only half-funded: Abbott
Reply   
AAP

Opposition Leader Tony Abbott says the government needs to reveal how it will fund the entire national disability care scheme and not just half of it.

Prime Minister Julia Gillard today announced the Medicare levy would be lifted from 1.5 per cent to two per cent to raise around $3.2 billion towards the $8 billion a year scheme.

Mr Abbott told reporters in the southwestern Victorian town of Casterton that he was pleased to see the details of the levy, but Ms Gillard's announcement raised more questions.

"If you are only going to half-fund the scheme, presumably you are only going to half deliver it," he said.

"It is incumbent on the prime minister to tell us exactly where the rest of the money is coming from."

Mr Abbott said the prime minister should bring the legislation to parliament in the coming session and not wait until after the September election.

"If she's fair dinkum why not do it in this parliament?" Mr Abbott said.

Mr Abbott left it open for the coalition to support any legislation before the September election.

"If I thought it was responsibly funded, yes (the coalition would vote for the laws)," he said.

"But let's get the detail. She's given us half the detail, half the funding, let's see the rest of it."

Asked if he supported a Medicare levy rise, Mr Abbott said: "I support a responsibly funded scheme ... but (a levy) is only half funding the scheme."

Shadow treasurer Joe Hockey earlier said he did not believe the scheme would improve productivity and that a rise in the Medicare levy would hurt business and consumer confidence.

Mr Abbott said the disability care scheme would help productivity, although his paid parental leave scheme was a more obvious productivity measure.

"I think there are other measures which are probably more obviously productivity measures, such as the paid parental leave scheme, but nevertheless over time a national disability insurance scheme will certainly help with productivity," he said.

Mr Abbott wants about 3000 big businesses to pay an annual levy of 1.5 per cent to support his proposed parental leave scheme.

The scheme would pay mothers taking six months leave up to $75,000.

LINK

Sydney ACC 04:22 GMT May 1, 2013
JuliaR Gillard

That's not true.
The 0.5% NDIS levy is an election issue. Labor has to be re-elected or the coalition has to adopt the policy for it to be introduced in the next parliament.

perth wtr 04:21 GMT May 1, 2013
JuliaR Gillard

Gillard will definitely be defeated in the next election, stocks to the moon celebrating this event already

Syd 04:21 GMT May 1, 2013
aud
Reply   
perth wtr 04:16 what a witch she promised she would destroy the country

Dillon AL 04:21 GMT May 1, 2013
Manufacturing slumps to GFC lows

............The double top is a frequent price formation at the end of a bull market. ..............
....................The time between the two peaks is also a determining factor for the existence of a double top pattern. If the tops appear at the same level but are very close in time, then the probability is high that they are part of the consolidation and the trend will resume................

PS: The DX is a tradeable instrument

perth wtr 04:16 GMT May 1, 2013
JuliaR Gillard
Reply   
Syd, Gillard just raised 0.5% medicare levy...

perth wtr 04:10 GMT May 1, 2013
Manufacturing slumps to GFC lows

singapore td, maybe that's the very own reason why censored has its own USDOLLAR index instead of using traditional DX, and it is currently forming double top the way i look at it

singapore td 04:02 GMT May 1, 2013
Manufacturing slumps to GFC lows

AL, i was just about pointing as well re. weighting of DX, that has been a problem IMHO as euro has big weighting, global game has changed and DX should reflect this, so there is a fundamental flaw in basing our analytics on DX itself.

Re. jpy, i can't see how that will change much of DX, simple because euro's weighting is much greater than usdjpy, even if usdjpy goes up that should purely based on jpy play will also push eurjpy up which in the end will help push euro up. So all in all, given euro's weighting is much larger will push DX down

Dillon AL 03:41 GMT May 1, 2013
Manufacturing slumps to GFC lows

Buying above 82.03 is a sensible r/r last 81.765 that would approximate Euro around 1.3110 below which opens a re-test of the DX highs and/or Euro lows. Whilst DX is below then your view may well be right but I prefer to look at the big picture which says that since 2008 everyone has been bearish the USD however the game changer this year was BoJ and the upside tgts for UsdJpy are 94/100/102/108/113/115/122 and possibly 149. The weaker Jpy alone would force the DX much higher than you might expect despite its wheighting being relatively small

Hong Kong AceTrader 03:41 GMT May 1, 2013
*** AceTrader Daily Market Review : Dollar slumps as Chicago PMI unexpectedly dropped - May 1, 2013*
Reply   
Market Review - 30/04/2013 22:03GMT

Dollar slumps as Chicago PMI unexpectedly dropped

The greenback dropped against majority of its peers after U.S. Chicago PMI unexpectedly fell to its lowest level in 3 years, increasing speculation the Federal Reserve will maintain its bond buying under QE program as policymakers began a 2-day FOMC meeting today.

U.S. Chicago PMI fell to 49 in April, the lowest since September 2009, from 52.4 last month.

Although the single currency traded sideways in Asian morning and rose briefly to 1.3121 ahead of European open, price dropped to session low at 1.3052 in European morning after the released of weaker-than-expected Germany retail sales before recovering to 1.3084. Price jumped in New York morning and rose to an intra-day high at 1.3186 on dollar's broad-based weakness after U.S. Chicago PMI unexpectedly dropped to its lowest level in 3 years. Later, euro pared intra-day gains and retreated to 1.3146 at New York midday before stabilising.

Germany retail sales were reported at -0.5% m/m, lower than forecasts of 0.0%.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback remained under pressure in Asia and weakened to 97.61 in European morning before staging a recovery to 97.79 in New York morning. Dollar fell briefly but sharply to an intra-day low at 96.99 after the release of weak U.S. Chicago PMI, however, price pared intra-day losses and rebounded to 97.62 in New York afternoon.

The British pound traded with a firm undertone in Asia and edged higher to 1.5507 ahead of European open. Despite a brief pullback to 1.5474 ahead of New York open, price rallied to an intra-day high at 1.5570 in New York morning on dollar's weakness. However, cable pared intra-day gains and retreated to 1.5529 in New York afternoon before stabilising.

In other news, U.K.'s Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said 'particularly important' that FPC gives due weight to impact of actions on near-term economic recovery.' Italy's Silvio Berlusconi said 'must re-negotiate deficit commitments made with EU; cannot be part of government that does not abolish IMU housing tax.'

On the data front, U.S. consumer confidence is released at 68.1, vs the expectation of 60.8, prior reading is revised to 61.9. EU unemployment in Mar came in 12.1%, worse than the forecast of 12.0%.

Data to be released on Wednesday:

Australia new home sales, manufacturing PMI, UK manufacturing PMI, U.S. ADP employment, manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing and Fed rate decision.

singapore td 03:34 GMT May 1, 2013
Manufacturing slumps to GFC lows

i tend to go with the bearish engulfing pattern on last month's bar

singapore td 03:31 GMT May 1, 2013
Manufacturing slumps to GFC lows

AL, not convincing momentum-wise IMHO. Easily breakdown will create double top in your chart.

Dillon AL 03:21 GMT May 1, 2013
Manufacturing slumps to GFC lows




The attached chart has my comment

singapore td 01:32 GMT May 1, 2013
Manufacturing slumps to GFC lows

UK Percy, prove it, no need free advice. Nothing comes free :).
Talking book is always good when one cannot lose anymore. Usd can only do dead cat acrobatics and slammed hard again.

UK Percy 01:23 GMT May 1, 2013
Manufacturing slumps to GFC lows

Wouldn't get too carried away with "your book". Market will turn against you in the next 24-36 hours.
I only offer you this piece of free advice because you live in Singapore which is known as a place like "Disneyland but with the death penalty".

singapore td 01:14 GMT May 1, 2013
Manufacturing slumps to GFC lows

Whatever bad news, conditions everywhere in the world, blame it on usd it seems to be the main theme, bad eu data euro rallied, bad oz data aud rallied. Good US data? Still sell usd ;)

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 01:06 GMT May 1, 2013
All You Need to Trade Forex
Reply   

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Syd 01:03 GMT May 1, 2013
Manufacturing slumps to GFC lows
Reply   
Manufacturing activity slumped in April to the lowest level since the height of the global financial crisis in May 2009.

The Australian Industry Group's Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) was down 7.7 points last month to 36.7, well below the key 50-point level that separates expansion from contraction.

Syd 00:58 GMT May 1, 2013
No more austerity: PM sets Italy on new course
Reply   
ROME: Italy's new Prime Minister Enrico Letta says his coalition government will act fast to reverse an austerity policy he argues is killing Italy and has called on Europe to become a motor for growth.
"Italy is dying from austerity alone. Growth policies cannot wait," Mr Letta said during his inaugural speech to parliament on Monday, under the watchful gaze of European partners.
The recession-hit country, effectively rudderless since an inconclusive election in February, is under pressure to act fast to tackle social, economic and institutional ills.


The leftist moderate, who was sworn in with his cabinet on Sunday, promised to have results in 18 months or "take the consequences".

singapore td 00:44 GMT May 1, 2013
Forex News

Keep selling usd on small pullbacks, if any! Technical picture is super bad for usd.

 




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