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Forex Forum Archive for 05/03/2013

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Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


dc CB 20:57 GMT May 3, 2013
Fixed Income



Paris ib 19:02 GMT May 3, 2013
Fixed Income: Reply
CB have you seen what yields have done today? Your take on that if you have one? I'm staggered.


1. Yields hit the lowest point of the year on May 1, also the first day for monthly allocation of new funds into bond funds.

2. "Sell in May" was a bear trap and since everybody was looking for it there was too much "risk off" trade in FxdIncome.

3. New issues of 10 and 30 year auctions next week...not reopening of this years 1st issue. Primary Dealers, (who have been taking close to 50% of the last several auctions) normally sell off inventory prior to the auction to make room on their books for the new stuff. Besides the PD's there will be more bonds.....Hey APPL just issues $17bln at better rates than Treas...and isn't APPL just as "safe" as the US Gov.....they actually have cash.

4. Auctions: Fear or Yield sells bonds.

GVI Forex Free FX Database 19:59 GMT May 3, 2013
Chart Points
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex john bland 19:49 GMT May 3, 2013
Commitment of Traders Report
Reply   
COT EUR vs. USD Positions. In week ending Tuesday, EURUSD Longs down and shorts up. Market slightly less short EUR.



COT NET EUR Positions. In week ending Tuesday,



COT JPY vs USD Positions. In week ended Tuesday, JPY shorts down and longs steady. Market less short JPY.




COT NET JPY vs. USD Positions. In the week ended Tuesday.


JERUSALEM kb 19:47 GMT May 3, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels

Buy USDJPY
Entry: 98 48and Target: 99.25 Stop: 97.80

hit target nice and easy

Paris ib 19:02 GMT May 3, 2013
Fixed Income

CB have you seen what yields have done today? Your take on that if you have one? I'm staggered.

Mtl JP 18:56 GMT May 3, 2013
week-end BAIL IN risk
Reply   
IF long week-ends are preferred time UK will have two opps this month:
6 May Early May bank holiday
27 May Spring bank holiday

to dk 18:50 GMT May 3, 2013
Charts providers



..

Amman wfakhoury 18:39 GMT May 3, 2013
Charts providers
Reply   
Mtl JP 18:33 GMT May 3, 2013
thks alot.

Mtl JP 18:33 GMT May 3, 2013
Charts providers

look here

Amman wfakhoury 18:25 GMT May 3, 2013
Charts providers
Reply   
Intellchart will be no more soon.

dc CB 18:22 GMT May 3, 2013
Fixed Income

"Of course, Janet Yellen, who is a front runner for Bernanke’s replacement, also sees no negative impacts and says QE should be appropriate through at least 2025."
_________________________________________________

The suicide rate among middle-aged Americans climbed a startling 28% in the last decade as the rates in younger and older people held steady. This period dominated by two stock market crashes, a real-estate crash, and a hyper-repressive Fed saw a stunning 40% surge in the suicide rate among 35-64 year old white men and women (with non-Caucasian rates steady). 39 out of 50 states registered a statistically significant increase in suicide rates among the middle-aged.

Middle-Aged Suicide Rate Surges

dc CB 18:19 GMT May 3, 2013
Fixed Income

Quote of the Day.
______________________________

“Quantitatve easing is NOT going away. Every major country is running a deficit. If they are all net borrowers then who is the lender? The central banks. For this reason – QE is not going away for a long time.”

QE programs will continue until such time that the Federal Reserve begins to see negative consequences. However, up to this point as Ben Bernanke has clearly reiterated, there has been NO evidence of any negative consequences.

Of course, Janet Yellen, who is a front runner for Bernanke’s replacement, also sees no negative impacts and says QE should be appropriate through at least 2025.

Jeff Gundlach - Why Own Bonds At All

Mtl JP 18:08 GMT May 3, 2013
Charts providers

what r u looking for over and above Intellichart offer

ed kw 18:08 GMT May 3, 2013
Charts providers

Charts

ed kw 18:06 GMT May 3, 2013
Charts providers

www.goldmoney.com › Gold Research‎


GoldMoney offers a wide range of gold charts. Select the weight, currency and period of your choice and see the gold price evolve over time.

ed kw 17:58 GMT May 3, 2013
Charts providers

with gold crosses

Amman wfakhoury 17:53 GMT May 3, 2013
Charts providers
Reply   
easy to use , accurate , similar to Intellchart

Mtl JP 17:47 GMT May 3, 2013
Charts providers

what criteria qualify "good chart" provider ?

Amman wfakhoury 17:43 GMT May 3, 2013
Charts providers
Reply   
anyone knows the good forex chart providers.

dc CB 17:23 GMT May 3, 2013
Fixed Income



Mixed?

ed kw 16:42 GMT May 3, 2013
USA/JPY
Reply   
USA/JPY 1010 FOR BULL IN CAD.JPY

ed kw 16:39 GMT May 3, 2013
MORE STEAM
Reply   
HA SHARK I HAVE 50 MORE CHARTS FOR YOU,JUST TIY MEEE

ed kw 16:34 GMT May 3, 2013
cad/jpy

i will quit now before there are no sharks left

ed kw 16:33 GMT May 3, 2013
cad/jpy

i will quit now before there are no sharks left

ed kw 16:31 GMT May 3, 2013
cad/jpy
Reply   
cad/jpy is testing top it will bust it for ca print good numbers


ha shark you cant hide from me training from G V I JAY M.

ed kw 16:27 GMT May 3, 2013
aud/cad
Reply   
aud/cad hit support testing trend line to up side

beijing kaprikorn 16:27 GMT May 3, 2013
TREND
Reply   
Technically I view the recent EUR/USD move as an exhaustion and failed 2nd test of the 1.32 level so I'd like to test my assumption. Also I view the recent all time Highs in Equities as a good timing to go short in tune with the old adage: "Sell in May and Go away."

Sold EUR/USD 1.3108 - SL 1.3188
Sold GBP/JPY 154.28 - SL 155.08

ed kw 16:25 GMT May 3, 2013
aud/nzd
Reply   
trend line down looking for a reversall ,,bull

ed kw 16:21 GMT May 3, 2013
usd/cad
Reply   
ca cot is unwinding might interesting if thy are still loong

ed kw 16:20 GMT May 3, 2013
eur/chf
Reply   
cant forget this pairs testing a bit or resistance hear ,bull

ed kw 16:18 GMT May 3, 2013
eur/gbp
Reply   
ed kw 15:44 GMT May 3, 2013
Global Markets News: Reply
ecb,cut backes is good for dax eur banks must keep the cash working ,good call eur


eur/gbp is on biggest support chek the day chart far bake

bull

ed kw 16:14 GMT May 3, 2013
eur/jpy//more steam
Reply   
ed kw 15:44 GMT May 3, 2013
Global Markets News: Reply
ecb,cut backes is good for dax eur banks must keep the cash working ,good call eur
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
next target 133.0 is bigger resistance

all yen pars are a bull now its timing it

shark cannery production increases capacity,G V I is the attributor/ha

GVI Forex john bland 16:03 GMT May 3, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply   
Major bond market prices mixed. Peripherals mixed.

dc CB 15:56 GMT May 3, 2013
Stocks



POMO...none today. Everyday next week.

Auctions up 10Y Wed, 30Y Thurs.....the price to be paid?

ed kw 15:44 GMT May 3, 2013
Global Markets News

ecb,cut backes is good for dax eur banks must keep the cash working ,good call eur

GVI Forex 15:42 GMT May 3, 2013
Week Ahead
Reply   
• Weaker global tone reflected in recent central bank decisions

• MPC likely to keep policy unchanged amid firmer domestic data

• RBA to remain on hold for now, but faith in soft landing slipping

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS

GVI Forex 15:35 GMT May 3, 2013
Global Markets News
Reply   
EUR/USD has been highly volatile over the last 12 hours. Traders were buying euro heading into the jobs data, pushing EUR/USD to 1.3145 just ahead of the report at 08:30ET. The pair spiked lower after the data, bottoming out at 1.3035 before retesting above 1.3150. USD/JPY saw the 99 handle for the first time in a week but turned lower after testing 99.25.

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: April Jobs Report Surprises to the Upside, Equity Indices Surge Higher

Perth Wtr 15:18 GMT May 3, 2013
Market
Reply   
Calling the day now guys, looks like a pretty strong close for stocks, euro and cable unless I am too early to say it ;) See you next week.

ed kw 15:16 GMT May 3, 2013
more steam
Reply   
G V I was on the right side

NY JM 15:12 GMT May 3, 2013
Stocks

Stocks are up because many got caught positioned the wrong way expecting a weak jobs report.

Perth Wtr 15:10 GMT May 3, 2013
Stocks
Reply   
Unbelievable run dow 15k. I wonder if El Erian will sell here.

Lahore FM 15:10 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

sl to entry at 1.3135 now.

GVI Forex Blog 15:05 GMT May 3, 2013 Reply   
May 3, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, May 6. Updated: Trading Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: AU- Retail Sales. EZ/DE/FR- SVC PMI.

GVI Forex Data Outlook for 5 May 2013

GVI Forex john bland 15:03 GMT May 3, 2013
Calendar
Reply   


May 3, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, May 6. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: AU- Retail Sales. EZ/DE/FR- SVC PMI.



ed kw 15:01 GMT May 3, 2013
exotic
Reply   
usd/mxn,had strong prints brok support 12.57810,testing new support 11.99360

Lahore FM 15:01 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Cheers Wtr...good trades to you!

Perth Wtr 15:00 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

I like your calls on exotic pairs since they usually easily yield couple hundred pips. But i tend to avoid following and even at times be contrarian when you trade majors. Not that they are wrong, it is just that the boat is too tilted to one side.

Lahore FM 14:59 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

sl to 1.3160 bid now.anyone who wants 15 or so pips can close the short

london red 14:59 GMT May 3, 2013
euro
Reply   
100 hour at 30 now serves as resistance, next 100 sma at 57. while below former, risk is to further losses for euro.

Lahore FM 14:56 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

lolzzz..you may well be right Wtr !!

Perth Wtr 14:55 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

FM, you are followed by too many people that at times your trade didn't work out to its full extent :). I noticed that when you trade exotic pairs they have much higher success rate because it is not followed by many.

london red 14:55 GMT May 3, 2013
-
Reply   
cable has support from 100 day sma at 50 with 100 hour at 34. so day trade stop think best placed under there.

Central Kwun 14:50 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

aggressive trade, Fm

Lahore FM 14:49 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Central Kwun 14:32 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas " : Reply
FM, you are still shorting EUR? all non rebound very fast

--
previous short stopped on half part for profit.its again looking like a short to me though so small short 1.3135 stops at 1.3172 bid.

Jkt abel 14:46 GMT May 3, 2013
Buy euro

Got it Jay and replied

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:42 GMT May 3, 2013
Buy euro

Abel, check your email

Jkt abel 14:38 GMT May 3, 2013
Buy euro

Cheers tom and singapore td, all good calls re. BOD euro ahead of 1.30. 1.2850? That was soooo yesterday, not possible ;)

manila tom 14:34 GMT May 3, 2013
Buy euro
Reply   
Euro 1.30 is just a line on the sand, a psychological level. The real support is 1.2920 and 1.2850. Only below those two levels then I may change bias. For the moment though we need to respect these good bounces on any approach to 1.30 for bigger run towards 1.37. That's my view. Good trades.

london red 14:33 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

100 day sma caps euro as does 50% fibo for cable. look for pullbacks if dont move ahead shortly.

Central Kwun 14:32 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

FM, you are still shorting EUR? all non rebound very fast

Porto Cubriclas 14:27 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Ok Tom and FM ;)

Lahore FM 14:25 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Cubricals dear many thanx ! Tom is all good.let us keep it a great forum.

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:24 GMT May 3, 2013
Black Swan Capital
Reply   
This is from Black Swan Capital (see free trial or details on its service)

I have not been sending much in the way of new recos this week, as this has been a nasty trading market from my perspective. Keeping in mind the notion that if things don't fit, don't play. As small traders against the house, keep in mind we do have two advantages over the dealers (as suggested by John Percival): 1) We can pick and choose when we play; we don't have to be in there everyday battling; and 2) We can choose our time frames. This IS our positional advantage and we must use it.

manila tom 14:24 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Porto, it is not a disrespect or anything. All done in good spirit. Sometimes we need to challenge a widely held view. I know FM is a very good trader, no doubt about it. But some are just following his calls blindly.

Porto Cubriclas 14:21 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Tom just a little more respect. When you do 5 good trades....FM do 20 great trades.
Good weekend for all.

perth wtr 14:20 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Good bye usd? Looks like whatever data come out usd will definitely be a loser at the end of the day

Lahore FM 14:20 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Kaprikorn..good to see you here/

on eurusd a dip below 1.3105 here onwards can mean nothing really happened.

ed kw 14:19 GMT May 3, 2013
gbp/aud
Reply   
trapped in the day chart go bake to 20012 might/be a short or looking for support

to dk 14:18 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "



,,

london red 14:18 GMT May 3, 2013
-
Reply   
cable again tests 50 fibo at 15606. a break and thru stops above 10 targets 15800 next. a failure and i think back down to 15550 at least today.

tokyo ginko 14:15 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

"Just keep buying euro on dips, cant even challenge 1.30 on good nfp. What happens to those bearish calls? 1.22? Cant even beat 1.30."

btw, good nfp is positive correlation with eur

beijing kaprikorn 14:15 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

---
John Maynard Keynes:
- "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

---

Brilliant trading as ever, FM!

Ginko, also good call!

I'd say I'm really interested what is happening in the markets as yesterday EURUSD did what would be called a key reversal closing below the low of the last 2 days. However the GBPUSD didn't bulge and it did gave me second thoughts on my short positions as the EUR position was 150 down and the GBP was at break-even all the time. I guess this upleg now is either a reversal in the making or just the downtrend retracement hasn't run off it's steam as the Equities are making historical Highs and that is giving steam to the Risk rally, hence USD selling.
All based on Daily charts.
Certainly we all test our views in the markets and manage risk respectively.

FM & Ginko, all the best!

manila tom 14:14 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Good, should have been done much earlier. No offence but your usdcad call would probably need another look too. Good luck

Lahore FM 14:06 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

manila tom 13:59 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas " : Reply
FM, changing side now? Good.

--
currency direction is no religion Tom..i will switch sides before you can say dow-jones index.

GVI Forex john bland 14:04 GMT May 3, 2013
United States



ISM Services PMI. Weaker than expected.

HK Kevin 14:03 GMT May 3, 2013
EUR/JPY
Reply   
Short limit order 130 hit earlier, stop ~80 pips with target at 127.

GVI Forex john bland 14:00 GMT May 3, 2013
United States


-- ALERT --
U.S. Factory Orders March 2013
-4.00% vs. -2.00% exp. vs. +3.00% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john bland 14:00 GMT May 3, 2013
United States

-- ALERT --
U.S. Services PMI April 2013
53.1 vs. 54.0 exp. vs. 54.4 prev.
Employment sub-component
52.0 vs. n/a exp. vs. 53.3 prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

manila tom 13:59 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

FM, changing side now? Good.

manila tom 13:57 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Just keep buying euro on dips, cant even challenge 1.30 on good nfp. What happens to those bearish calls? 1.22? Cant even beat 1.30.

GVI Forex john bland 13:51 GMT May 3, 2013
United States
Reply   



HEADS-UP: Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update
EURUSD= 1.3105
GBPUSD= 1.5565
USDJPY= 98.16

Direct links to primary data sources

tokyo ginko 13:14 GMT May 3, 2013
EURUSD

hi FM, thanks for the kinds words. Your reputation precedes you in this forum!

GT!

Lahore FM 13:07 GMT May 3, 2013
EURUSD

Ginko,lovely to see you around !

tokyo ginko 13:05 GMT May 3, 2013
EURUSD

go with your gut feelings...GL GT !

Tartu kuues 13:00 GMT May 3, 2013
EURUSD
Reply   
Viies if you are around could you please share your view on EUR
now after NFP?

I was long and got stopped. What has changed is that Nowotny confirmed further cut and NFP wasnt so bad either atleast revised up.

But i have a feeling that it wont change a picture. QE is still on (for long period) and one little bounce of NFP wont change it.

Negative rate is the way to push money from bank account to real business.

Market is very short!

At the moment looks that eur cant even fight with 1.3 level.

In other words all this together is still makeing me think of longing eur.

What is your opinion about this mess?


Thank you in advance!!!

Lahore FM 12:59 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Buy EURCHF
Entry: 1.2251 Target: 1.25 Stop: 1.2190

long now.

Lahore FM 12:57 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

weekly close above 1.3052 can set up bullish run which might last a few hundred pips if not more imo!

GVI Forex john bland 12:45 GMT May 3, 2013
United States

Revised Last three mos data plus 6mo moving averages
FEB13 332 199
MAR13 138 199
APR13 165 200

Lahore FM 12:42 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3183 Target: Stop: 1.3145 for half

Lahore FM 13:04:51 GMT - 05/02/2013

Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3183 Target: Stop: 1.3183 for half
Lahore FM
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3183 Target: Stop: 1.3265
sold now.
--
part closed at 1.3113 now.
--
sl lowered to 1.3145 on half portion.

GVI Forex john bland 12:40 GMT May 3, 2013
United States

Monthly jobs U.S. April data as expected but large upward revisions to February and March...


Click on chart for more than 10-yr history

Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 12:36 GMT May 3, 2013
United States

still under the min 200K the FED suits think they need to see every month/month

GVI Forex john bland 12:32 GMT May 3, 2013
United States

-- ALERT --
U.S. Employment April 2013
NFP Jobs: +165K vs. +150K exp. vs. +88K prev.(138 r)
Private Empl: +176K vs. +170K exp. vs. +95K prev.(154 r.)
Rate: 7.50% vs. 7.60% exp. vs. 7.60% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john bland 12:14 GMT May 3, 2013
United States
Reply   


HEADS-UP: Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update
EURUSD= 1.3115
GBPUSD= 1.5550
USDJPY= 98.05

Direct links to primary data sources

perth wtr 12:03 GMT May 3, 2013
Nowotny throws cold water on more ECB ease. U.S. April jobs due

Such an official should better learn to just shut up, they talk too much with little substance.

GVI Forex 11:59 GMT May 3, 2013
Nowotny throws cold water on more ECB ease. U.S. April jobs due

Headline whipsaw:

5/3/2013 7:47:59
Euro vs US Dollar Euro dips as ECB's Nowotny clarifies comments on deposit rates; 'astonished' by market reaction to his comment
- There has been a discussion about negative deposit and ECB is open minded about a possible move
- Such a move into negative territory is not imminent

- Source TradeTheNews.com

Cambridge Joe 11:30 GMT May 3, 2013
AUDUSD 10285

Looks like it might fail.... so 1.0271 short entry now behind a couple of pip sl.....

PAR 11:22 GMT May 3, 2013
Europran Austerity
Reply   
Austerity is finished in Europe and budgettary discipline is becoming a distant memory . Draghi will keep rates low and all governments will keep spending like ther is no tomorrow . Merkel will be out of a job by the end of the year.

London Misha 11:17 GMT May 3, 2013
Observations
Reply   
EURUSD - Follow on to Shooting Star as market drops & closes within Fib support band 1.3045-1.3072 on Daily Chart.
USDJPY - Almost a Key Reversal Up that negates the Descending Triangle as market bounces up off Fib at 97.12. Care, KR's are suspect in this pair.
GBPUSD - Follow on to failure at key 50% Fib at 1.5604 with Bearish Harami on Daily Chart.
USDCHF - Market reverts up from key 50% Fib at 0.9268 & nears Long MA resistance on Daily Chart.
EURGBP - Long Closing Black Marubozo but market falls into combined Fib support 0.8406-0.8418 on Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - Follow on to Bearish Engulfing Pattern but tests & fails to breach key twin 50% Fib support 1.0217-1.0224 on Daily Chart.
USDINR - Follow on up from combined Fib support 53.61-53.64 & halts at old Uptrend but breaches it today on Daily Chart.
USDZAR - Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart & 1st close below recent Uptrend!
USDBRL - Key Reversal Up follows Bearish Doji Cross, possible Gravestone Doji, on Daily Chart.


Cambridge Joe 10:40 GMT May 3, 2013
AUDUSD 10285

wfakhoury Fair play to you Sir !

It has gone somewhat out of bounds ATM. I didn't see that coming ! Still, each must make his move as and when appropriate !

I'm sure that you are right ! GL.

Amman wfakhoury 10:31 GMT May 3, 2013
AUDUSD 10285
Reply   
Cambridge Joe 09:51 GMT May 3, 2013
AUDUSD: Reply
AUSUSD looks to sell about one hour hence. IMO. GL


--------------
we have 10285 as confirmed level from yesterday ?

GVI Forex Blog 10:18 GMT May 3, 2013 Reply   
The EUR/USD reclaimed the 1.31 handle in early European trading after ECB member Nowotny clarified Draghi's comments from yesterday's press conference. Nowotny stated that markets had over-interpreted the possibility of negative interest rates occurring.

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: ECB members clarify possibility on negative rates; EU Commission paints a gloomier picture for Europe

Cambridge Joe 09:51 GMT May 3, 2013
AUDUSD
Reply   
AUSUSD looks to sell about one hour hence. IMO. GL

jkt abel 09:45 GMT May 3, 2013
buy euro on dips, strong supports
Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

we haven't had 2 weekly close in a row under 1.30 since Nov 2012, every brief dip will quickly be reversed fwiw, still play BOD until this does not work anymore

GVI Forex john bland 09:42 GMT May 3, 2013
Nowotny throws cold water on more ECB ease. U.S. April jobs due
Reply   

  • HIGH IMPACT ITEMS:  US- Employment, SVC PMI
  • ECB member Nowotny threw cold water on additional ECB rate cuts  today and gave the EURUSD a lift.
  • U.S. April employment due  at 12:30 GMT.  A gain in jobs of +/-150K in the month is seen. Estimates generally were revised down after the ADP Private jobs data.
  • The ECB cut its main Refi rate by 25bps to 0.50% as expected, but the markets were disappointed that nothing else was offered
  • U.K. Services PMI data from were better than expected and was just one more indication the economy may be improving.
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
EURUSD 1.3066
JGB 0.57% -2bp
Asia:Mixed
USDJPY 98.54
Bund 1.16% +1bp
Europe Mixed
EURJPY 128.76
U.S.1.64%  +1bp
U.S.:Higher

GVI Forex Blog 09:41 GMT May 3, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Employment, SVC PMI ECB member Nowotny threw cold water on additional ECB rate cuts today and gave the EURUSD a lift. U.S. April employment due at 12:30 GMT. A gain in jobs of +/-150K in the month is seen. Estimates generally were revised down after the ADP Private jobs data.

Nowotny throws cold water on more ECB ease. U.S. April jobs due

Hong Kong AceTrader 09:16 GMT May 3, 2013
*** AceTrader Daily Outlook on EUR/USD : May 3, 2013 ***
Reply   
DAILY EUR/USD OUTLOOK - +1.3125

03 May 2013 08:40GMT

Euro's intra-day stronger-than-expected rebound after y'day's selloff to 1.3037 suggests 'choppy' consolidation wud be seen n gain to 1.3128/30 can't ruled out, however, nenewed selling shud emerge below 1.3148 (prev. sup) n yield selloff later.

Wud be prudent to exit short n sell on further recovery with stop as indicated, break risks 1.3180

STRATEGY : +Hold short+

POSITION : +Short at 1.3125+

OBJECTIVE : 1.3040

STOP-LOSS : 1.3165

RES : 1.3115/1.3148/1.3220

SUP : 1.3037/1.2988/1.2954

GVI Forex john bland 09:04 GMT May 3, 2013
Eurozone


-- ALERT --
EZ Producer Price Index
March 2013
mm: vs. -0.20% exp. vs. +0.20% prev.
yy: vs. +0.70% exp. vs. +1.30% prev. (+1.40% r.)



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john bland 08:45 GMT May 3, 2013
Eurozone
Reply   


HEADS-UP: Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update
EURUSD= 1.3120
GBPUSD= 1.5549
USDJPY= 98.14

Direct links to primary data sources

london red 08:44 GMT May 3, 2013
United Kingdom

near term cable resistance at 15590 (if can break the 100 day sma which is at current levels), then key fibo 15606. if fibo tested (will be second time) and not taken, downside will be explored with target/good support in 15420 region. break of fibo looks at 1.5780/15800 next week. much depends of non farms this afternoon.

GVI Forex john bland 08:44 GMT May 3, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply   
Major bond market prices mixed. Peripherals mixed.

Tokyo Ginko 08:43 GMT May 3, 2013
Short eur / usd
Reply   
Intra target for 1.2940/50

Gt all

GVI Forex john bland 08:36 GMT May 3, 2013
United Kingdom



U.K. Services PMI. April Services PMI stronger than expected.

manila tom 08:31 GMT May 3, 2013
United Kingdom

buy cable can be a very nice alternative too, all data had been great for UK on comparative basis with the others

GVI Forex john bland 08:28 GMT May 3, 2013
United Kingdom
Reply   

-- ALERT --
GB Services PMI April 2013
52.9 vs. 52.3 exp. vs. 52.4 prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex john bland 08:19 GMT May 3, 2013
United Kingdom
Reply   


HEADS-UP: Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update
EURUSD= 1.3109
GBPUSD= 1.5527
USDJPY= 98.23

Direct links to primary data sources

Cambridge Joe 08:06 GMT May 3, 2013
Cable
Reply   
If Cable strikes 5595 before Mkt close, then it looks to sell of from early in the new week. IMO.GL.

london red 07:58 GMT May 3, 2013
buy euro

euro firmer this morning on tightening bond spreads and chat from euro chiefs "qualifying" yesterdays draghi comments re negative rates.
up soon srvs pmi for uk for april, expected slightly firmer around 52.5, but some will be looking for a bit more possibly given the better data this week so far. so far this year the index has shown modest acceleration in growth each month. if not seen talk will quickly switch to more qe.

kl fs 07:49 GMT May 3, 2013
buy euro

supported by action on crosses as well, eurchf up and eurjpy up

kl fs 07:47 GMT May 3, 2013
buy euro

euro is above 1.31, well above the low, all good

Cambridge Joe 07:46 GMT May 3, 2013
USDJPY
Reply   
USDJPY some recoil at 98.29 IMO. So it looks to me !

kl fs 07:45 GMT May 3, 2013
buy euro

closed half at 1.3098, stop still the same for the reminder, scaling out for NFP volatility, still looking to add buy on dips

kl fs 13:18 GMT May 2, 2013
buy euro: Reply
back to old buying zone
1.3070-80, stop should be under 1.3010, should suffice

GVI Forex Blog 07:40 GMT May 3, 2013 Reply   
- (CN) CHINA APR NON-MANUFACTURING PMI: 54.5 V 55.6 PRIOR (14th straight month of expansion) >- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.6% V 1.6%E - (HK) HONG KONG APR P

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Asian markets mixed with Japan closed; investors await US employment data***Economic Data*** - Source TradeTheNews.com

manila tom 06:56 GMT May 3, 2013
TREND

one day does not make a trend, NFP will trigger another 300 pips reversal up, good luck

beijing kaprikorn 06:52 GMT May 3, 2013
TREND
Reply   
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

I would never consider trading on the Long side a pair that has just made a 200 pip Key Reversal on the Dailies.

I'd find a good spot to add to the short position.

GVI Forex 06:51 GMT May 3, 2013
Alert
Reply   
NOWOTNY: MARKETS OVERSTATED NEGATIVE DEPO DISCUSSION THURSDAY

GVI Forex Blog 03:48 GMT May 3, 2013 Reply   
The unexpected fall in jobless claims in US and ECB's decision to cut refinance rate to 0.50% (record low) has propelled all the global indices

Morning Briefing : 03-May-2013 -0346 GMT

jkt abel 02:56 GMT May 3, 2013
eurusd

it is tradable guys, closed euro long from 1.3050 now at 1.3075 for +25, reload later

plenty of entry levels to play BOD with reasonable 30 or so stops

until 1.2850 taken on weekly closing basis, then I am still a die-hard euro bulls, cheers

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:31 GMT May 3, 2013
*** AceTrader Daily Market Review: Euro tumbles on negative rate speculation/2013 - May 3, 2013
Reply   
Market Review - 02/05 22:48GMT

Euro tumbles on negative rate speculation/2013

The single currency tumbled against the greenback on Thursday after ECB President Mario Draghi hinted the central bank is ready to apply negative deposit rates and highlighted downside risks to the eurozone economy.

ECB's Draghi in his press conference at Bratislava said 'rate decision was consensual; very strong pervading consensus for 25 BPS; asked if rates could be cut further, says we look at all data; when asked about negative deposit rates says are technically ready; negative rates have unintended consequences, will cope if decide to act.'

The single currency remained under pressure in Asia and edged lower to 1.3148 in early European morning before recovering to 1.3181 ahead of ECB's rate decision. Despite a brief but sharp fall to 1.3115 after ECB cut its interest rate by 25 bps to 0.50%, price rose to session high at 1.3220 on short-covering. However, euro pared intra-day gains and tanked after ECB's Draghi hinted at prospects of negative interest rates, eventually falling to an intra-day low at 1.3037 in New York morning before stabilising.

Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback traded in choppy fashion in Asia and Europe, dollar jumped at New York open and rose to an intra-day high at 98.40 after the release of better-than-expected U.S. jobless claims and trade balance. However, price pared intra-day gains and retreated swiftly to 97.61 in New York morning before stabilising around 98.00 in New York afternoon.

U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 324K, better than the expectation of 345K. Trade balance was reported at -38.8 billion dollars vs forecast of -42.0 billion.

Although the British pound traded sideways in Asia and edged higher to session high at 1.5591 ahead of New York open, cable retreated in tandem with euro to an intra-day low at 1.5497 in New York morning. However, price pared intra-day losses and recovered to 1.5539 in New York afternoon.

In other news, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said 'Japan monetary easing needed to escape deflation; will monitor if Japan easing affects emerging nations; not seeking asset bubble much in Asia due to inflows; Japan economy moving within expectations after easing; effects of BOJ April easing will come out from now.'

On the data front, U.K. construction PMI in Apir come out at 49.4, better than the street forecast of 48.0, just shy of the 50.0 growth/ expansionary mark. EU manufacturing PMI in Apr came in at 46.7, better than the expectation of 46.5. German manufacturing PMI in Apr is released at 48.1, better than the forecast of 47.9.

Data to be released on Friday:

Japan market holiday, China non-manufacturing PMI, Australia PPI, UK services PMI, EU PPI, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, avg. hourly earnings, factory orders, durable goods, ex. defense, ex. transport and ISM non-manufacturing.

GVI Forex 01:02 GMT May 3, 2013
China
Reply   
**CHINA CFLP APRIL SERVICE PMI 54.5 VS MARCH 55.6

 




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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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