dc CB 20:57 GMT May 3, 2013
Fixed Income
Paris ib 19:02 GMT May 3, 2013
Fixed Income: Reply
CB have you seen what yields have done today? Your take on that if you have one? I'm staggered.
1. Yields hit the lowest point of the year on May 1, also the first day for monthly allocation of new funds into bond funds.
2. "Sell in May" was a bear trap and since everybody was looking for it there was too much "risk off" trade in FxdIncome.
3. New issues of 10 and 30 year auctions next week...not reopening of this years 1st issue. Primary Dealers, (who have been taking close to 50% of the last several auctions) normally sell off inventory prior to the auction to make room on their books for the new stuff. Besides the PD's there will be more bonds.....Hey APPL just issues $17bln at better rates than Treas...and isn't APPL just as "safe" as the US Gov.....they actually have cash.
4. Auctions: Fear or Yield sells bonds.
GVI Forex Free FX Database 19:59 GMT May 3, 2013
Chart Points
Reply
UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close
data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.
Paris ib 19:02 GMT May 3, 2013
Fixed Income
CB have you seen what yields have done today? Your take on that if you have one? I'm staggered.
Mtl JP 18:56 GMT May 3, 2013
week-end BAIL IN risk
Reply
IF long week-ends are preferred time UK will have two opps this month:
6 May Early May bank holiday
27 May Spring bank holiday
dc CB 18:22 GMT May 3, 2013
Fixed Income
"Of course, Janet Yellen, who is a front runner for Bernanke�s replacement, also sees no negative impacts and says QE should be appropriate through at least 2025."
_________________________________________________
The suicide rate among middle-aged Americans climbed a startling 28% in the last decade as the rates in younger and older people held steady. This period dominated by two stock market crashes, a real-estate crash, and a hyper-repressive Fed saw a stunning 40% surge in the suicide rate among 35-64 year old white men and women (with non-Caucasian rates steady). 39 out of 50 states registered a statistically significant increase in suicide rates among the middle-aged.
Middle-Aged Suicide Rate Surges
dc CB 18:19 GMT May 3, 2013
Fixed Income
Quote of the Day.
______________________________
�Quantitatve easing is NOT going away. Every major country is running a deficit. If they are all net borrowers then who is the lender? The central banks. For this reason � QE is not going away for a long time.�
QE programs will continue until such time that the Federal Reserve begins to see negative consequences. However, up to this point as Ben Bernanke has clearly reiterated, there has been NO evidence of any negative consequences.
Of course, Janet Yellen, who is a front runner for Bernanke�s replacement, also sees no negative impacts and says QE should be appropriate through at least 2025.
Jeff Gundlach - Why Own Bonds At All
Mtl JP 18:08 GMT May 3, 2013
Charts providers
what r u looking for over and above Intellichart offer
ed kw 18:06 GMT May 3, 2013
Charts providers
www.goldmoney.com � Gold Research
GoldMoney offers a wide range of gold charts. Select the weight, currency and period of your choice and see the gold price evolve over time.
Amman wfakhoury 17:53 GMT May 3, 2013
Charts providers
Reply
easy to use , accurate , similar to Intellchart
Mtl JP 17:47 GMT May 3, 2013
Charts providers
what criteria qualify "good chart" provider ?
Amman wfakhoury 17:43 GMT May 3, 2013
Charts providers
Reply
anyone knows the good forex chart providers.
ed kw 16:42 GMT May 3, 2013
USA/JPY
Reply
USA/JPY 1010 FOR BULL IN CAD.JPY
ed kw 16:39 GMT May 3, 2013
MORE STEAM
Reply
HA SHARK I HAVE 50 MORE CHARTS FOR YOU,JUST TIY MEEE
ed kw 16:34 GMT May 3, 2013
cad/jpy
i will quit now before there are no sharks left
ed kw 16:33 GMT May 3, 2013
cad/jpy
i will quit now before there are no sharks left
ed kw 16:31 GMT May 3, 2013
cad/jpy
Reply
cad/jpy is testing top it will bust it for ca print good numbers
ha shark you cant hide from me training from G V I JAY M.
ed kw 16:27 GMT May 3, 2013
aud/cad
Reply
aud/cad hit support testing trend line to up side
beijing kaprikorn 16:27 GMT May 3, 2013
TREND
Reply
Technically I view the recent EUR/USD move as an exhaustion and failed 2nd test of the 1.32 level so I'd like to test my assumption. Also I view the recent all time Highs in Equities as a good timing to go short in tune with the old adage: "Sell in May and Go away."
Sold EUR/USD 1.3108 - SL 1.3188
Sold GBP/JPY 154.28 - SL 155.08
ed kw 16:25 GMT May 3, 2013
aud/nzd
Reply
trend line down looking for a reversall ,,bull
ed kw 16:21 GMT May 3, 2013
usd/cad
Reply
ca cot is unwinding might interesting if thy are still loong
ed kw 16:20 GMT May 3, 2013
eur/chf
Reply
cant forget this pairs testing a bit or resistance hear ,bull
ed kw 16:18 GMT May 3, 2013
eur/gbp
Reply
ed kw 15:44 GMT May 3, 2013
Global Markets News: Reply
ecb,cut backes is good for dax eur banks must keep the cash working ,good call eur
eur/gbp is on biggest support chek the day chart far bake
bull
ed kw 16:14 GMT May 3, 2013
eur/jpy//more steam
Reply
ed kw 15:44 GMT May 3, 2013
Global Markets News: Reply
ecb,cut backes is good for dax eur banks must keep the cash working ,good call eur
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
next target 133.0 is bigger resistance
all yen pars are a bull now its timing it
shark cannery production increases capacity,G V I is the attributor/ha
GVI Forex john bland 16:03 GMT May 3, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply
Major bond market prices mixed. Peripherals mixed.
dc CB 15:56 GMT May 3, 2013
Stocks
POMO...none today. Everyday next week.
Auctions up 10Y Wed, 30Y Thurs.....the price to be paid?
ed kw 15:44 GMT May 3, 2013
Global Markets News
ecb,cut backes is good for dax eur banks must keep the cash working ,good call eur
GVI Forex 15:42 GMT May 3, 2013
Week Ahead
Reply
� Weaker global tone reflected in recent central bank decisions
� MPC likely to keep policy unchanged amid firmer domestic data
� RBA to remain on hold for now, but faith in soft landing slipping
ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS
Perth Wtr 15:18 GMT May 3, 2013
Market
Reply
Calling the day now guys, looks like a pretty strong close for stocks, euro and cable unless I am too early to say it ;) See you next week.
NY JM 15:12 GMT May 3, 2013
Stocks
Stocks are up because many got caught positioned the wrong way expecting a weak jobs report.
Perth Wtr 15:10 GMT May 3, 2013
Stocks
Reply
Unbelievable run dow 15k. I wonder if El Erian will sell here.
Lahore FM 15:10 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
sl to entry at 1.3135 now.
GVI Forex Blog 15:05 GMT May 3, 2013
Reply
May 3, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, May 6. Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: AU- Retail Sales. EZ/DE/FR- SVC PMI.
GVI Forex Data Outlook for 5 May 2013
GVI Forex john bland 15:03 GMT May 3, 2013
Calendar
Reply
May 3, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, May 6.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: AU- Retail Sales. EZ/DE/FR- SVC PMI.
ed kw 15:01 GMT May 3, 2013
exotic
Reply
usd/mxn,had strong prints brok support 12.57810,testing new support 11.99360
Lahore FM 15:01 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
Cheers Wtr...good trades to you!
Perth Wtr 15:00 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
I like your calls on exotic pairs since they usually easily yield couple hundred pips. But i tend to avoid following and even at times be contrarian when you trade majors. Not that they are wrong, it is just that the boat is too tilted to one side.
Lahore FM 14:59 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
sl to 1.3160 bid now.anyone who wants 15 or so pips can close the short
london red 14:59 GMT May 3, 2013
euro
Reply
100 hour at 30 now serves as resistance, next 100 sma at 57. while below former, risk is to further losses for euro.
Lahore FM 14:56 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
lolzzz..you may well be right Wtr !!
Perth Wtr 14:55 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
FM, you are followed by too many people that at times your trade didn't work out to its full extent :). I noticed that when you trade exotic pairs they have much higher success rate because it is not followed by many.
london red 14:55 GMT May 3, 2013
-
Reply
cable has support from 100 day sma at 50 with 100 hour at 34. so day trade stop think best placed under there.
Lahore FM 14:49 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
Central Kwun 14:32 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas " : Reply
FM, you are still shorting EUR? all non rebound very fast
--
previous short stopped on half part for profit.its again looking like a short to me though so small short 1.3135 stops at 1.3172 bid.
Jkt abel 14:46 GMT May 3, 2013
Buy euro
Got it Jay and replied
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:42 GMT May 3, 2013
Buy euro
Abel, check your email
Jkt abel 14:38 GMT May 3, 2013
Buy euro
Cheers tom and singapore td, all good calls re. BOD euro ahead of 1.30. 1.2850? That was soooo yesterday, not possible ;)
manila tom 14:34 GMT May 3, 2013
Buy euro
Reply
Euro 1.30 is just a line on the sand, a psychological level. The real support is 1.2920 and 1.2850. Only below those two levels then I may change bias. For the moment though we need to respect these good bounces on any approach to 1.30 for bigger run towards 1.37. That's my view. Good trades.
london red 14:33 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
100 day sma caps euro as does 50% fibo for cable. look for pullbacks if dont move ahead shortly.
Central Kwun 14:32 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
FM, you are still shorting EUR? all non rebound very fast
Lahore FM 14:25 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
Cubricals dear many thanx ! Tom is all good.let us keep it a great forum.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 14:24 GMT May 3, 2013
Black Swan Capital
Reply
This is from Black Swan Capital (see free trial or details on its service)
I have not been sending much in the way of new recos this week, as this has been a nasty trading market from my perspective. Keeping in mind the notion that if things don't fit, don't play. As small traders against the house, keep in mind we do have two advantages over the dealers (as suggested by John Percival): 1) We can pick and choose when we play; we don't have to be in there everyday battling; and 2) We can choose our time frames. This IS our positional advantage and we must use it.
manila tom 14:24 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
Porto, it is not a disrespect or anything. All done in good spirit. Sometimes we need to challenge a widely held view. I know FM is a very good trader, no doubt about it. But some are just following his calls blindly.
Porto Cubriclas 14:21 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
Tom just a little more respect. When you do 5 good trades....FM do 20 great trades.
Good weekend for all.
perth wtr 14:20 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
Good bye usd? Looks like whatever data come out usd will definitely be a loser at the end of the day
Lahore FM 14:20 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
Kaprikorn..good to see you here/
on eurusd a dip below 1.3105 here onwards can mean nothing really happened.
ed kw 14:19 GMT May 3, 2013
gbp/aud
Reply
trapped in the day chart go bake to 20012 might/be a short or looking for support
london red 14:18 GMT May 3, 2013
-
Reply
cable again tests 50 fibo at 15606. a break and thru stops above 10 targets 15800 next. a failure and i think back down to 15550 at least today.
tokyo ginko 14:15 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
"Just keep buying euro on dips, cant even challenge 1.30 on good nfp. What happens to those bearish calls? 1.22? Cant even beat 1.30."
btw, good nfp is positive correlation with eur
beijing kaprikorn 14:15 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
---
John Maynard Keynes:
- "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"
---
Brilliant trading as ever, FM!
Ginko, also good call!
I'd say I'm really interested what is happening in the markets as yesterday EURUSD did what would be called a key reversal closing below the low of the last 2 days. However the GBPUSD didn't bulge and it did gave me second thoughts on my short positions as the EUR position was 150 down and the GBP was at break-even all the time. I guess this upleg now is either a reversal in the making or just the downtrend retracement hasn't run off it's steam as the Equities are making historical Highs and that is giving steam to the Risk rally, hence USD selling.
All based on Daily charts.
Certainly we all test our views in the markets and manage risk respectively.
FM & Ginko, all the best!
manila tom 14:14 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
Good, should have been done much earlier. No offence but your usdcad call would probably need another look too. Good luck
Lahore FM 14:06 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
manila tom 13:59 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas " : Reply
FM, changing side now? Good.
--
currency direction is no religion Tom..i will switch sides before you can say dow-jones index.
GVI Forex john bland 14:04 GMT May 3, 2013
United States
ISM Services PMI. Weaker than expected.
HK Kevin 14:03 GMT May 3, 2013
EUR/JPY
Reply
Short limit order 130 hit earlier, stop ~80 pips with target at 127.
manila tom 13:59 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
FM, changing side now? Good.
manila tom 13:57 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
Just keep buying euro on dips, cant even challenge 1.30 on good nfp. What happens to those bearish calls? 1.22? Cant even beat 1.30.
tokyo ginko 13:14 GMT May 3, 2013
EURUSD
hi FM, thanks for the kinds words. Your reputation precedes you in this forum!
GT!
Lahore FM 13:07 GMT May 3, 2013
EURUSD
Ginko,lovely to see you around !
tokyo ginko 13:05 GMT May 3, 2013
EURUSD
go with your gut feelings...GL GT !
Tartu kuues 13:00 GMT May 3, 2013
EURUSD
Reply
Viies if you are around could you please share your view on EUR
now after NFP?
I was long and got stopped. What has changed is that Nowotny confirmed further cut and NFP wasnt so bad either atleast revised up.
But i have a feeling that it wont change a picture. QE is still on (for long period) and one little bounce of NFP wont change it.
Negative rate is the way to push money from bank account to real business.
Market is very short!
At the moment looks that eur cant even fight with 1.3 level.
In other words all this together is still makeing me think of longing eur.
What is your opinion about this mess?
Thank you in advance!!!
Lahore FM 12:59 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
Buy EURCHF
Entry: 1.2251 Target: 1.25 Stop: 1.2190
long now.
Lahore FM 12:57 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
weekly close above 1.3052 can set up bullish run which might last a few hundred pips if not more imo!
GVI Forex john bland 12:45 GMT May 3, 2013
United States
Revised Last three mos data plus 6mo moving averages
FEB13 332 199
MAR13 138 199
APR13 165 200
Lahore FM 12:42 GMT May 3, 2013
" Trade Ideas "
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3183 Target: Stop: 1.3145 for half
Lahore FM 13:04:51 GMT - 05/02/2013
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3183 Target: Stop: 1.3183 for half
Lahore FM
Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3183 Target: Stop: 1.3265
sold now.
--
part closed at 1.3113 now.
--
sl lowered to 1.3145 on half portion.
Mtl JP 12:36 GMT May 3, 2013
United States
still under the min 200K the FED suits think they need to see every month/month
GVI Forex 11:59 GMT May 3, 2013
Nowotny throws cold water on more ECB ease. U.S. April jobs due
Headline whipsaw:
5/3/2013 7:47:59
Euro vs US Dollar Euro dips as ECB's Nowotny clarifies comments on deposit rates; 'astonished' by market reaction to his comment
- There has been a discussion about negative deposit and ECB is open minded about a possible move
- Such a move into negative territory is not imminent
- Source TradeTheNews.com
Cambridge Joe 11:30 GMT May 3, 2013
AUDUSD 10285
Looks like it might fail.... so 1.0271 short entry now behind a couple of pip sl.....
PAR 11:22 GMT May 3, 2013
Europran Austerity
Reply
Austerity is finished in Europe and budgettary discipline is becoming a distant memory . Draghi will keep rates low and all governments will keep spending like ther is no tomorrow . Merkel will be out of a job by the end of the year.
London Misha 11:17 GMT May 3, 2013
Observations
Reply
EURUSD - Follow on to Shooting Star as market drops & closes within Fib support band 1.3045-1.3072 on Daily Chart.
USDJPY - Almost a Key Reversal Up that negates the Descending Triangle as market bounces up off Fib at 97.12. Care, KR's are suspect in this pair.
GBPUSD - Follow on to failure at key 50% Fib at 1.5604 with Bearish Harami on Daily Chart.
USDCHF - Market reverts up from key 50% Fib at 0.9268 & nears Long MA resistance on Daily Chart.
EURGBP - Long Closing Black Marubozo but market falls into combined Fib support 0.8406-0.8418 on Daily Chart.
AUDUSD - Follow on to Bearish Engulfing Pattern but tests & fails to breach key twin 50% Fib support 1.0217-1.0224 on Daily Chart.
USDINR - Follow on up from combined Fib support 53.61-53.64 & halts at old Uptrend but breaches it today on Daily Chart.
USDZAR - Key Reversal Down on Daily Chart & 1st close below recent Uptrend!
USDBRL - Key Reversal Up follows Bearish Doji Cross, possible Gravestone Doji, on Daily Chart.
Cambridge Joe 10:40 GMT May 3, 2013
AUDUSD 10285
wfakhoury Fair play to you Sir !
It has gone somewhat out of bounds ATM. I didn't see that coming ! Still, each must make his move as and when appropriate !
I'm sure that you are right ! GL.
Amman wfakhoury 10:31 GMT May 3, 2013
AUDUSD 10285
Reply
Cambridge Joe 09:51 GMT May 3, 2013
AUDUSD: Reply
AUSUSD looks to sell about one hour hence. IMO. GL
--------------
we have 10285 as confirmed level from yesterday ?
Cambridge Joe 09:51 GMT May 3, 2013
AUDUSD
Reply
AUSUSD looks to sell about one hour hence. IMO. GL
jkt abel 09:45 GMT May 3, 2013
buy euro on dips, strong supports
Reply
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
we haven't had 2 weekly close in a row under 1.30 since Nov 2012, every brief dip will quickly be reversed fwiw, still play BOD until this does not work anymore
GVI Forex john bland 09:42 GMT May 3, 2013
Nowotny throws cold water on more ECB ease. U.S. April jobs due
Reply
- HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS: US- Employment, SVC PMI
- ECB member Nowotny threw cold
water on additional ECB rate cuts today and gave the EURUSD a
lift.
- U.S. April employment due
at 12:30 GMT. A gain in jobs of +/-150K in the month is seen.
Estimates generally were revised down after the ADP Private jobs data.
- The ECB cut its main Refi rate
by 25bps to 0.50% as expected, but the markets were disappointed that
nothing else was offered
- U.K. Services PMI data from
were better than expected and was just one more indication the economy
may be improving.
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.3066
|
JGB
0.57% -2bp
|
Asia:Mixed
|
USDJPY
98.54
|
Bund
1.16% +1bp
|
Europe
Mixed
|
EURJPY
128.76
|
U.S.1.64%
+1bp
|
U.S.:Higher
|
GVI Forex Blog 09:41 GMT May 3, 2013
Reply
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Employment, SVC PMI
ECB member Nowotny threw cold water on additional ECB rate cuts today and gave the EURUSD a lift.
U.S. April employment due at 12:30 GMT. A gain in jobs of +/-150K in the month is seen. Estimates generally were revised down after the ADP Private jobs data.
Nowotny throws cold water on more ECB ease. U.S. April jobs due
Hong Kong AceTrader 09:16 GMT May 3, 2013
*** AceTrader Daily Outlook on EUR/USD : May 3, 2013 ***
Reply
DAILY EUR/USD OUTLOOK - +1.3125
03 May 2013 08:40GMT
Euro's intra-day stronger-than-expected rebound after y'day's selloff to 1.3037 suggests 'choppy' consolidation wud be seen n gain to 1.3128/30 can't ruled out, however, nenewed selling shud emerge below 1.3148 (prev. sup) n yield selloff later.
Wud be prudent to exit short n sell on further recovery with stop as indicated, break risks 1.3180
STRATEGY : +Hold short+
POSITION : +Short at 1.3125+
OBJECTIVE : 1.3040
STOP-LOSS : 1.3165
RES : 1.3115/1.3148/1.3220
SUP : 1.3037/1.2988/1.2954
london red 08:44 GMT May 3, 2013
United Kingdom
near term cable resistance at 15590 (if can break the 100 day sma which is at current levels), then key fibo 15606. if fibo tested (will be second time) and not taken, downside will be explored with target/good support in 15420 region. break of fibo looks at 1.5780/15800 next week. much depends of non farms this afternoon.
GVI Forex john bland 08:44 GMT May 3, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply
Major bond market prices mixed. Peripherals mixed.
GVI Forex john bland 08:36 GMT May 3, 2013
United Kingdom
U.K. Services PMI. April Services PMI stronger than expected.
manila tom 08:31 GMT May 3, 2013
United Kingdom
buy cable can be a very nice alternative too, all data had been great for UK on comparative basis with the others
Cambridge Joe 08:06 GMT May 3, 2013
Cable
Reply
If Cable strikes 5595 before Mkt close, then it looks to sell of from early in the new week. IMO.GL.
london red 07:58 GMT May 3, 2013
buy euro
euro firmer this morning on tightening bond spreads and chat from euro chiefs "qualifying" yesterdays draghi comments re negative rates.
up soon srvs pmi for uk for april, expected slightly firmer around 52.5, but some will be looking for a bit more possibly given the better data this week so far. so far this year the index has shown modest acceleration in growth each month. if not seen talk will quickly switch to more qe.
kl fs 07:49 GMT May 3, 2013
buy euro
supported by action on crosses as well, eurchf up and eurjpy up
kl fs 07:47 GMT May 3, 2013
buy euro
euro is above 1.31, well above the low, all good
Cambridge Joe 07:46 GMT May 3, 2013
USDJPY
Reply
USDJPY some recoil at 98.29 IMO. So it looks to me !
kl fs 07:45 GMT May 3, 2013
buy euro
closed half at 1.3098, stop still the same for the reminder, scaling out for NFP volatility, still looking to add buy on dips
kl fs 13:18 GMT May 2, 2013
buy euro: Reply
back to old buying zone
1.3070-80, stop should be under 1.3010, should suffice
manila tom 06:56 GMT May 3, 2013
TREND
one day does not make a trend, NFP will trigger another 300 pips reversal up, good luck
beijing kaprikorn 06:52 GMT May 3, 2013
TREND
Reply
Sell EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
I would never consider trading on the Long side a pair that has just made a 200 pip Key Reversal on the Dailies.
I'd find a good spot to add to the short position.
GVI Forex 06:51 GMT May 3, 2013
Alert
Reply
NOWOTNY: MARKETS OVERSTATED NEGATIVE DEPO DISCUSSION THURSDAY
GVI Forex Blog 03:48 GMT May 3, 2013
Reply
The unexpected fall in jobless claims in US and ECB's decision to cut refinance rate to 0.50% (record low) has propelled all the global indices
Morning Briefing : 03-May-2013 -0346 GMT
jkt abel 02:56 GMT May 3, 2013
eurusd
it is tradable guys, closed euro long from 1.3050 now at 1.3075 for +25, reload later
plenty of entry levels to play BOD with reasonable 30 or so stops
until 1.2850 taken on weekly closing basis, then I am still a die-hard euro bulls, cheers
Hong Kong AceTrader 01:31 GMT May 3, 2013
*** AceTrader Daily Market Review: Euro tumbles on negative rate speculation/2013 - May 3, 2013
Reply
Market Review - 02/05 22:48GMT
Euro tumbles on negative rate speculation/2013
The single currency tumbled against the greenback on Thursday after ECB President Mario Draghi hinted the central bank is ready to apply negative deposit rates and highlighted downside risks to the eurozone economy.
ECB's Draghi in his press conference at Bratislava said 'rate decision was consensual; very strong pervading consensus for 25 BPS; asked if rates could be cut further, says we look at all data; when asked about negative deposit rates says are technically ready; negative rates have unintended consequences, will cope if decide to act.'
The single currency remained under pressure in Asia and edged lower to 1.3148 in early European morning before recovering to 1.3181 ahead of ECB's rate decision. Despite a brief but sharp fall to 1.3115 after ECB cut its interest rate by 25 bps to 0.50%, price rose to session high at 1.3220 on short-covering. However, euro pared intra-day gains and tanked after ECB's Draghi hinted at prospects of negative interest rates, eventually falling to an intra-day low at 1.3037 in New York morning before stabilising.
Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback traded in choppy fashion in Asia and Europe, dollar jumped at New York open and rose to an intra-day high at 98.40 after the release of better-than-expected U.S. jobless claims and trade balance. However, price pared intra-day gains and retreated swiftly to 97.61 in New York morning before stabilising around 98.00 in New York afternoon.
U.S. initial jobless claims came in at 324K, better than the expectation of 345K. Trade balance was reported at -38.8 billion dollars vs forecast of -42.0 billion.
Although the British pound traded sideways in Asia and edged higher to session high at 1.5591 ahead of New York open, cable retreated in tandem with euro to an intra-day low at 1.5497 in New York morning. However, price pared intra-day losses and recovered to 1.5539 in New York afternoon.
In other news, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said 'Japan monetary easing needed to escape deflation; will monitor if Japan easing affects emerging nations; not seeking asset bubble much in Asia due to inflows; Japan economy moving within expectations after easing; effects of BOJ April easing will come out from now.'
On the data front, U.K. construction PMI in Apir come out at 49.4, better than the street forecast of 48.0, just shy of the 50.0 growth/ expansionary mark. EU manufacturing PMI in Apr came in at 46.7, better than the expectation of 46.5. German manufacturing PMI in Apr is released at 48.1, better than the forecast of 47.9.
Data to be released on Friday:
Japan market holiday, China non-manufacturing PMI, Australia PPI, UK services PMI, EU PPI, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, avg. hourly earnings, factory orders, durable goods, ex. defense, ex. transport and ISM non-manufacturing.
GVI Forex 01:02 GMT May 3, 2013
China
Reply
**CHINA CFLP APRIL SERVICE PMI 54.5 VS MARCH 55.6
We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.