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Forex Forum Archive for 05/10/2013

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Click here to join the Live Forex Forum.


GVI Forex john bland 23:54 GMT May 10, 2013
Fed

Interesting they withheld the article until well after the Friday close. Suggests that Bernanke provided ground rules to Hilsenrath and the WSJ. Gives the story credibility.

dc CB 23:48 GMT May 10, 2013
Fed

Paris ib....looks like the "false rumor Tweet" wasn't.
so that's why...going into the weekend with "rumors of WAR" all over the place. Treas sold off.....

guess the Hilsenrath Email list is as long as the Feds, when those in the Know need to Know.

as George Carlin said....YOU ARE NOT IN THE CLUB
______________________________________________________

Yesterday, the rumor turned out to be a joke. Today, there was no rumor, but as we warned four hours ago, it was only a matter of time. Less than four hours later, the time has come, and Jon Hilsenrath's "Fed Maps Exit from Stimulus", conveniently appearing after the close, has just been released.

From Hilsy, and one of his final attempts to remain relevant, pointing out what everyone already knew:

""" Federal Reserve officials have mapped out a strategy for winding down an unprecedented $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program meant to spur the economy—an effort to preserve flexibility and manage highly unpredictable market expectations.""""



The Hilsenrath "Tapering" Article Is Out

GVI Forex Inner Circle 22:58 GMT May 10, 2013
Fed

-- Market-Moving News --
REPORT: FED sees a "cautious" withdrawal from program timing uncertain.

GVI Forex 22:56 GMT May 10, 2013
Fed
Reply   

-- Market-Moving News --
REPORT: Fed "refining" plan to exit from bond buying program. Probably mid-year or later depending on future data.

Paris ib 20:29 GMT May 10, 2013
Fixed Income

CB.... interesting developments indeed. Can't help but think that margin traders in the forex market are giving Japanese investors an excellent exchange rate for the repatriation of funds from foreign bond markets. The hoopla about floods of foreign money (especially from Japan) is not born out by the price action in the U.S. Treasury market. Either the forex market is way ahead of itself or it is mega long USDs on a wing and a prayer. Waiting for the flood to bail them out. Could be a long wait.

Still wondering what higher longer term bond rates mean (if this is the start of a trend) for other markets.

GVI Forex Inner Circle 20:03 GMT May 10, 2013
Chart Points
Reply   

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex Inner Circle 19:59 GMT May 10, 2013
Commitment of Traders Report
Reply   
COT EUR vs. USD Positions. In week ending Tuesday, EURUSD Longs down and shorts down less. Market slightly shorter EUR.






COT NET EUR Positions. In week ending Tuesday,






COT JPY vs USD Positions. In week ended Tuesday, JPY shorts up and longs up less. Market shorter JPY.







COT NET JPY vs. USD Positions. In the week ended Tuesday.












Central Kwun 19:01 GMT May 10, 2013
EUR
Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

suddenly non USD rebound a lot

Central Kwun 19:01 GMT May 10, 2013
EUR
Reply   
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

suddenly non USD rebound a lot

Mtl JP 18:55 GMT May 10, 2013
GOLD

Gold should defy gravity particularly once our best friends start lending money at negative real interest rates

Israel Dil 18:49 GMT May 10, 2013
GOLD

Paper i trade and physical i store :-)

JERUSALEM KB 18:48 GMT May 10, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels



Crude
Entry: Target: Stop:

Will not hesitate to go long if we have a weekly close above trend line 96.10

Israel Dil 18:47 GMT May 10, 2013
EURO - sell sell sell


the dutch will smoke marijuana and will come with a magic solution to solve all problems, they will hire Amman Wfakhoury as fheir head of crisis team.

Mtl JP 18:46 GMT May 10, 2013
GOLD

Dil 18:39 is that planning on buying physical or paper representation ?

Mtl JP 18:42 GMT May 10, 2013
EURO - sell sell sell

ya, lets weaken euro to zero

The Dutch run 250% household debt to income.
Dutch banks have 650 billion euros on outstanding mortgages.
Dutch real-estate prices continue to tank.

Israel Dil 18:39 GMT May 10, 2013
GOLD
Reply   
During next month i am gold buyer for 250$ move up ... price and time unknown now, but plan is clear, will buy gold for 250$ move up (at least).

Israel Dil 18:31 GMT May 10, 2013
EURO - sell sell sell
Reply   

growth and payment of debts across Europe needs much weaker single currency ... the rest is scalp mania, selling the EURO is the trade that makes and will make money.


Dil

Mtl JP 18:24 GMT May 10, 2013
Student Debt Slows Growth as Young Spend Less

dc CB it is only a matter of time before the negative worth generation inherits the booming stocks and the by 20% ytd booming housing prices; suggest to be thankful to our best friends at the Fed, BoJ, BoE & Co for their experimental and bold actions

dc CB 18:15 GMT May 10, 2013
Student Debt Slows Growth as Young Spend Less
Reply   
“It is a new thing, a big social experiment that we’ve accidentally decided to engage in,” said Kevin Carey, the director of the Education Policy Program at the New America Foundation, a research group based in Washington.

“Let’s send a whole class of people out into their professional lives with a negative net worth. Not starting at zero, but starting at a minus that is often measured in the tens of thousands of dollars.

“For an individual going to college and ending up with a lot of debt — you’re still better off,”

SaR KaL 18:10 GMT May 10, 2013
eurusd wants north now

i want to buy EURJPY
using 5 minutes...but scared

131.4058
to
131.2844

worth it?

dc CB 17:40 GMT May 10, 2013
Fixed Income



to me this is the real shocker of the day.
considering that the Auction went well yesterday.
and since the auctions are over, the oversupply is somewhat relieved.

GVI Forex Inner Circle 17:32 GMT May 10, 2013
Best Friends

JP- Always a risk but I wonder if a lot of the stops have already been triggered?

Mtl JP 17:26 GMT May 10, 2013
Best Friends

headline risk into afternoon NY session
be it rating agency , G7 plant ect

SaR KaL 16:56 GMT May 10, 2013
eurusd wants north now

Long Cable
Might see 1.57 next week

JERUSALEM kb 16:50 GMT May 10, 2013
HOw to calculate your profits
Reply   
there is two ways to calculate your profits
1-which is the most popular method by no. of pips and this is the most disaster method because we use different size to trade and there is no rario for risk.

2-risking a certain percent of money invested : for example I took this week a long order on oil with 5% (it was a 200pips sl) this trade hit sl with 5%- at rhe same time I went long on usdjpy with 5% sl (20pips sl) and 14% target (55pips target)
so total gain is 9% +
what I want to say that we will never be a profitable trader only if we trade wirh a plan and this plane is a risk and eisk rewards.
I HOPE I ADD SOMETHING AND SAVE SOMETHING

Mtl JP 16:41 GMT May 10, 2013
Best Friends
Reply   
Keep on, or enough already? Fed officials spar over QE3
(Reuters) - Little over a week after U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers overwhelmingly endorsed a plan to keep buying bonds to spur economic growth and hiring, they are airing their differences over their super-easy policy.
-
Central Banks Keep Easing After Cuts Fail to Spur Growth - bbrg

Central banks are our best friends not because they like markets, but because they can only get to their macro objectives by going through the markets,” Mohamed El-Erian. “The hope is that improving fundamentals will validate what central banks have done.”.../..

SaR KaL 16:34 GMT May 10, 2013
eurusd wants north now
Reply   
Long EURUSD
TGT above 1.3120

Mtl JP 16:05 GMT May 10, 2013
gold

White House: Obama Going to Germany June 18-19

to talk to the german about his Gold transfer request ?

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 15:57 GMT May 10, 2013
Week Ahead
Reply   
• BoE Governor King presents his last Inflation Report

• First estimates of euro area Q1 GDP likely to show contraction continued into 2013

• A firmer tone to US data before attention reverts to fiscal uncertainty

ECONOMIC DATA ANALYSIS - KING'S LAST INFLATION REPORT

GVI Forex Inner Circle 15:55 GMT May 10, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply   
Major bond market prices weaker. Peripheral prices as well.

JERUSALEM kb 15:47 GMT May 10, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels

AUDUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

audusd is not for buy I will wait and see the rebound of this down move and start build new shorts for the 2nd wave whi
ch may target 0.95
I think 1.0035/1.0075 may be a good stops for short above parity

JERUSALEM kb 15:39 GMT May 10, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels

Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1 3 Target: open Stop: .1.3

let the profit run with sl at breakeven
oil hit sl with 130pips-

SaR KaL 15:24 GMT May 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

I'll Short USDCHF
0.9656 0.9309
0.9700 0.9267
0.9744 0.9225
0.9787 0.9184
0.9919 0.9062

SaR KaL 15:15 GMT May 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level



gold weekly
hahah...No wonder everyone wants to buy it

GVI Forex 15:12 GMT May 10, 2013
Global Markets News
Reply   
The yen continues to creep upwards during the US session following its big break of 100 against the dollar yesterday afternoon. As of writing, USD/JPY was above 101.75. The strengthening dollar is moving all crosses

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Yen 100, Dollar Strength Slams Commodities

Central Kwun 14:58 GMT May 10, 2013
AUD
Reply   
AUDUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

rebound fast

SaR KaL 14:58 GMT May 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level



here is another that will start south
GBPCHF
use off set anf GTC for 3 months
you will do good

SaR KaL 14:54 GMT May 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level



Very Likely
I just did the daily
if one can stand some pain
0.9900 to .9600
would be nice entry for possible 1.07

Mtl JP 14:49 GMT May 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

aud is down some 3%. just over this week.
makes a rebound likely

SaR KaL 14:46 GMT May 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level



AUDUSD Correction Longs

placed 0.9625
Longs for now GTC
will keep till the end of this month

Mtl JP 14:43 GMT May 10, 2013
buy euro on dips

Buy EURUSD
Entry: current Target: UP Stop: few pips under 55

kl shawn 14:32 GMT May 10, 2013
audusd

Buy AUDUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

sorry that was a long audusd position

kl shawn 14:31 GMT May 10, 2013
audusd
Reply   
in again 0.9968, stop 0.9918, open target with a close above parity will do today

SaR KaL 14:28 GMT May 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level



will buy eurusd 1.2850 area
1.3207 1.2857

Amsterdam Purk 14:21 GMT May 10, 2013
AUD

Great chances in aud/usd. But watch out for a major overshoot!!!!!!!!!!!!

london red 14:21 GMT May 10, 2013
AUD

probably used wrong word in trigger, rather change in sentiment. clearly you have rates decreasing in aus while in the usa they are again talking about tapering. this is a big negative. secondly you have data showing china slowing and damp commodity prices, as well as gold which historically aussie has tracked. these things suggest further downside, but things dont go in a straight line (although often aussie will do down very quickly over a multiweek timeframe with little pullback), so there is a chance that a rebound will occur if the conditions are right

SaR KaL 14:20 GMT May 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level



you see the same with eurusd
i placed an order to sell at 1.3202
next week will do another using another close...etc

jkt acce 14:19 GMT May 10, 2013
buy gbpusd
Reply   
Buy GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

buy at uptrend channel support 1.5378, stop 50 under will do, see you guys next week

GVI Forex Blog 14:17 GMT May 10, 2013 Reply   
May 10, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, May 13. Updated: Trading Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: CH- Retail Sales, US- Retail Sales.

GVI Forex Data Outlook for 13 May 2013

SaR KaL 14:16 GMT May 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level



EURGBP for 3 Months
if you are willing to try this method
Very Comfortable

See chart Forecast
Bullish right?
OK See that Number (From ANy point)
3.40%
...ok
Tale any close and Place GTC Long
Lets Say this previous close
5/8/2013 5:00:00 AM 0.84802

Use (1+0.034) to offset
Long at = 0.84802/(1.034)= 0.8202
and leave it for 3 months
as time goes by use another close and place another gtc order
Recent one would be 0.8442
so again 0.8442/(1.034)
small and many... you only need to know the trend + That Offset
Finished
will average really good guys



GVI Forex Inner Circle 14:16 GMT May 10, 2013
Calendar
Reply   


May 10, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, May 13. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: CH- Retail Sales, US- Retail Sales.



bali sja 14:12 GMT May 10, 2013
AUD

red, i agree with your assessment, trigger has always been the hardest part to find, it could come out from nowhere all of a sudden

bali sja 14:05 GMT May 10, 2013
buy euro on dips
Reply   
still think we are going to have weekly close above 1.30

london red 14:04 GMT May 10, 2013
AUD

re aussie, think worth looking at futures positioning when release later on. theres a chance the market could be short which means any bounce is likely to be quite violent, but there would need to be a trigger for the bounce in the first place. looking into next week i can see the zew on tuesday but until then it might be a rough ride.

GVI Forex Inner Circle 13:59 GMT May 10, 2013
United States

Q&A startibg

GVI Forex Inner Circle 13:38 GMT May 10, 2013
United States

So far Bernanke is reading his prepared text on the banking system (yawn!). There will be some Q&A, Any comment on policy so soon after the latest meeting would be a shock.

Lahore FM 13:35 GMT May 10, 2013
AUD

thanx for the illumination of the downside AL!

Lahore FM 13:29 GMT May 10, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Sell Crude
Entry: 95.72 Target: 90 for half Stop: 95.72 for half

Lahore FM 11:52:18 GMT - 05/10/2013

Sell Crude
Entry: 95.72 Target: 90 remainder half Stop: sl lowered to 96.60
--
sl at entry now.

Dillon AL 13:28 GMT May 10, 2013
AUD



just an alternative view

GVI Forex Inner Circle 13:25 GMT May 10, 2013
Personal Attacks
Reply   
Enough

GVI Forex Inner Circle 13:23 GMT May 10, 2013
United States
Reply   


HEADS-UP: Bernanke shortly (prepared text and Q&A).
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update)
EURUSD= 1.2997
GBPUSD= 1.5397
USDJPY= 101.56

Direct links to primary data sources

Lahore FM 13:12 GMT May 10, 2013
AUD

Cheers Tom .. suit yourself!

post as often as you like..was merely wondering since i started reading posts from you only last week!

Amsterdam Purk 13:11 GMT May 10, 2013
AUD

And under what name would that be Percy? I have been posting here for many moons, and every time under my own name.

I have developed my own opinion and my own trading style, and well, falling flat on my face some times, but the winning trades are more than the losing trades, both in pips and pure Mulah...

manila tom 13:10 GMT May 10, 2013
AUD

FM, there is no limitation to post here or is there? everyone has his/her own style

Lahore FM 13:08 GMT May 10, 2013
AUD

one would need to post the view = one would NOT need to post

Lahore FM 13:06 GMT May 10, 2013
AUD

Tom for being forever selling usd one would need to post the view every day i suppose.showing up once a quarter and referring to last post would work quite fine...correct me if i am wrong specially if 100 to 200 pips swings really don't matter to a trader !

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 13:06 GMT May 10, 2013
AUD

Percy, but how come you are not posting on the GVI side. Surely not for the same reason.

manila tom 13:06 GMT May 10, 2013
AUD

come on Percy, everyone has his/her own view, no need to use force, you can buy usd all you want

UK Percy 13:04 GMT May 10, 2013
AUD
Reply   
This is where this forum has descended to . Pyjama, stay at home traders refusing to listen to people that actually move the market....this is the reason gave up dispensing free advice years ago on this forum....

SaR KaL 13:03 GMT May 10, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

not in da mode for eurusd correction north
closed all shorts
Might head to 1.3202 By monday

manila tom 13:00 GMT May 10, 2013
Ozmond

I like your style Purk. Me too forever selling usd :)

Amsterdam Purk 12:59 GMT May 10, 2013
Ozmond

I do not care Percy what anyone says. I just buy more, and i will be patient like all the other times i bought. I am long forever.

UK Percy 12:57 GMT May 10, 2013
Ozmond

Not this time Purky. Under 9968 and you can kiss parity goodbye and also kiss goodbye your weekly supermarket visits...

Mtl JP 12:56 GMT May 10, 2013
Calendar

Ben and G7 = good risk market gets buffeted by headlines

manila tom 12:49 GMT May 10, 2013
Ozmond

closing today: euro above 1.30, gbp above 1.54 and aud above 1.00

manila tom 12:47 GMT May 10, 2013
Ozmond

agree Purk, it is oversold, bought some already

SYDNEY MIKE 12:46 GMT May 10, 2013
Ozmond

Buy AUDUSD
Entry: 1.020 Target: 1.150 Stop: 99.50

Im with you, oversold at present IMO. retrace to 1.150 before next downtrend.

Still higher interest rates vs USD + free money equities.

Lahore FM 12:46 GMT May 10, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Porto Cubriclas 12:36 GMT May 10, 2013

Cheers dear Sir!

Amsterdam Purk 12:41 GMT May 10, 2013
Ozmond
Reply   
Waited long enough, very patient: long aud/usd for any moons. new add: 1,00 everything.
targets: 1,15+.
Will take a while, but it will happen, some day....

Porto Cubriclas 12:36 GMT May 10, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

"theme working !"

Hi FM!
Im no shocked. Everibody knows you are the best.
Nice weekend all.

GVI Forex Inner Circle 12:35 GMT May 10, 2013
Canada



Canada jobs. Data virtually exactly as predicted.

Mtl JP 12:34 GMT May 10, 2013
Canada

Last time cad jobs print missed on the downside (by a 62K difference between expectation and print) usdcad reacted with a 60pip pop

Lahore FM 12:33 GMT May 10, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Buy USDCAD
Entry: Target: Stop:

Lahore FM 10:36:00 GMT - 05/10/2013

Buy USDCAD
Entry: 1.0068 Target: 1.20 this december Stop: 0.9920
long now.

Lahore FM 12:04:19 GMT - 05/10/2013
any good jobs report from CA will get washed away bu crude slump is my best guess!

--
theme working !

GVI Forex Inner Circle 12:30 GMT May 10, 2013
Canada

-- ALERT --
Canada: Employment April 2013
Jobs: +12.5 vs. +13.5K exp. vs. -54.5K prev.
Rate: 7.20% vs. 7.20% exp. vs. 7.20% prev.



TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

douglas IOM cookie 12:20 GMT May 10, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

CB are going to put it into rolls with please wash your hands at least its of some use

manila tom 12:17 GMT May 10, 2013
buy audusd
Reply   
buy 1.0007, stop 0.9927

douglas IOM cookie 12:16 GMT May 10, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

they are running out of storeage room for all this paper

GVI Forex Inner Circle 12:13 GMT May 10, 2013
Canada
Reply   


HEADS-UP: Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update
USCCAD= 1.0093
EURUSD= 1.2988
GBPUSD= 1.5382
USDJPY= 101.60

Direct links to primary data sources

Lahore FM 12:08 GMT May 10, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

how could gold slump in times of infinite money from central banks??

jkt acce 12:07 GMT May 10, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

with situation Israel vs Iran+Syria, how can crude slump?

Lahore FM 12:05 GMT May 10, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

bu crude slump = by crude slump

Lahore FM 12:04 GMT May 10, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

any good jobs report from CA will get washed away bu crude slump is my best guess!

bali sja 12:03 GMT May 10, 2013
buy euro
Reply   
i agree with tom, while above 1.2850 weekly closing basis, euro is still a buy
i put my trade, 1.2988, 1.2922 and 1.2868

Lahore FM 11:59 GMT May 10, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

thanx Krish !

hyderabad Krishna 11:55 GMT May 10, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

FM:
GREAT TO SEE HERE YOU BROTHER...

to dk 11:55 GMT May 10, 2013
euro

they re back in the madhouse

Lahore FM 11:52 GMT May 10, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Sell Crude
Entry: 95.72 Target: 90 remainder half Stop: sl lowered to 96.60

Lahore FM 11:51 GMT May 10, 2013 - My Profile
" Trade Ideas " : Reply
Sell Crude
Entry: 95.72 Target: 93.50 for half 90 remainder half Stop: sl lowered to 96.60
--
part closed 94.80 now.

Lahore FM 11:51 GMT May 10, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Sell Crude
Entry: 95.72 Target: 93.50 for half 90 remainder half Stop: sl lowered to 96.60

Lahore FM 10:09 GMT May 10, 2013 - My Profile
" Trade Ideas " : Reply
Sell Crude
Entry: 95.72 Target: 93.50 half and 90 remainder half Stop: 97.20

sold now for mentioned targets.
--
sl down at 96.60 now.

GVI Forex Inner Circle 11:33 GMT May 10, 2013
Calendar
Reply   
Correction to Bernanke time on our calendar
May 10 Speech--Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
Monitoring Finance
At the 49th Annual Conference on Bank Structure and Competition, Chicago, Illinois
9:30 a.m. ET (13:30 GMT)

London Christopher 11:32 GMT May 10, 2013
euro
Reply   
Any euro bulls left on the board?

JERUSALEM kb 11:25 GMT May 10, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels

Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1 3 Target: 1 2905 Stop: 1.3020

sold

GVI Forex Inner Circle 11:17 GMT May 10, 2013
Japan
Reply   

-- Market-Moving News --

BOJ Governor Kuroda refuses to comment on JPY. Market takes this as a signal Tokyo is happy with the move on Thursday.

hyderabad Krishna 11:13 GMT May 10, 2013
EURJPY 132.20

any comments on usd/jpy.....

JERUSALEM kb 11:13 GMT May 10, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels

all jpy long hits target with 155pips +total
short hit sl with 20pips-

Melbourne Qindex 11:11 GMT May 10, 2013
GBP-GOLD : Critical Point 951.5
Reply   
Sell Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:






GBP-GOLD : Critical Point 951.5


The bias is on the downside when the market is trading below the critical point 951.5. GBP-GOLD is going to challenge the barrier at 898.1 // 903.8.


Qindex.com

GBP-Gold : Monthly Cycle Charts

JERUSALEM kb 11:10 GMT May 10, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels

Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:

out of gold short with 250pips+

Amman wfakhoury 11:09 GMT May 10, 2013
EURJPY 132.20
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 10:27 GMT May 10, 2013
EURJPY 132.20: Reply
132.20 cnfirmed ..will be reached

-------------
132.20 reached from 131.80

Lahore FM 10:59 GMT May 10, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3158 Target: Stop: 1.3080 for half

Lahore FM 12:37:33 GMT - 05/08/2013

Sell EURUSD
Entry: 1.3158 Target: Stop: 1.3225 bid
sold now.
--
sl further lower to 1.3080 for half portion short 1.3158.

Paris ib 10:57 GMT May 10, 2013
Fixed Income

OK gotcha Red. Thanks again. After net selling of foreign bonds for a total of 23.2 billion in the first three weeks of April the Japanese were net buyers for 5 billion in the subsequent two weeks. I find myself underwhelmed.

ed kw 10:49 GMT May 10, 2013
Forex News

short aud/cad

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:47 GMT May 10, 2013
Forex News
Reply   
* Dollar jumps to four-year high well above 100 yen

* Nears Oct. 2008 high of 101.45 yen, some say 105 possible

* Euro hits more than 3-year high versus yen

* Safe-haven Swiss franc falls, Aussie hits 10-month low

FOREX NEWS - Yen slides to 4-year low as U.S. data lifts dollar

Lahore FM 10:36 GMT May 10, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Buy USDCAD
Entry: 1.0068 Target: 1.20 this december Stop: 0.9920

long now.

london red 10:34 GMT May 10, 2013
Fixed Income

Paris look at the bond purchases sales for residents, the red figures indicate outflows, thats what everyone was watching and what has changed. No doubt some were privy to this yesterday

Amman wfakhoury 10:27 GMT May 10, 2013
EURJPY 132.20
Reply   
132.20 cnfirmed ..will be reached




Paris ib 10:24 GMT May 10, 2013
Fixed Income

Japanese capital flows..... seem to point to repatriation of capital. With Japanese equity markets up 65% since November 2012, that's hardly surprising.

Japanese Capital Flows

Paris ib 10:17 GMT May 10, 2013
Fixed Income

Red from that report it looks like Japanese residents were net SELLERS of foreign bonds. While foreigners were net buyers of Japanese bonds and Japanese equities. I don't see an outflow of capital from Japan in this report. Am I missing something?

Meanwhile Japanese and U.S. Treasuries are both selling off.

The USD/JPY move looks more stop related than related to fundamentals or longer term capital flows. We'll see.

GVI Forex 10:15 GMT May 10, 2013
Global Markets News
Reply   
The USD continued its firm tone against major pairs aided on growing speculation that the FED was hinting of a QE tapering

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Talk of possible tapering of Fed policy aids USD against major pairs; Italy's 12-month yield hits record low on weak bid-to-cover

ed kw 10:12 GMT May 10, 2013
Fixed Income

loong cad/jpy

Paris ib 10:11 GMT May 10, 2013
Fixed Income

Thanks Red.

Lahore FM 10:09 GMT May 10, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Sell Crude
Entry: 95.72 Target: 93.50 half and 90 remainder half Stop: 97.20

sold now for mentioned targets.

london red 10:04 GMT May 10, 2013
Fixed Income

http://www.mof.go.jp/international_policy/ reference/itn_transactions_in_securities/week.pdf

Paris ib 09:59 GMT May 10, 2013
Fixed Income

So Japanese yields are rising because of capital outflow? Not because of improved economic outlook. While U.S. yields are rising because of improved economic outlook and not capital outflow? I haven't seen the report on Japanese capital outflow. Do you have a link?

london red 09:58 GMT May 10, 2013
buy cable

re cable, think longs at 55/65 could work with but tight stops under there say 30ish, as we would be looking at break of trendline and target 152 and 15040 and no need to be caught holding the ball on that one, better to run the downside.

ed kw 09:51 GMT May 10, 2013
Fixed Income

s gbp/y

GVI Forex Inner Circle 09:51 GMT May 10, 2013
Fixed Income



United States Interest rates. Note 10-yr yield rising as equities climb on the back of an improving economy.

GVI Forex Inner Circle 09:48 GMT May 10, 2013
Fixed Income



Japanese 10-yr JGB Interest rates sharp upward move today following report on capital outflows in past two weeks.

ed kw 09:47 GMT May 10, 2013
Canadian Jobs due. Bernanke speaks

short usd/ca

kl shawn 09:35 GMT May 10, 2013
buy cable
Reply   
hourly oversold, may bounce some, in 1.5391

ed kw 09:34 GMT May 10, 2013
Canadian Jobs due. Bernanke speaks

short gbp/cad

Paris ib 09:34 GMT May 10, 2013
Fixed Income

The name of the game is what is happening with U.S. yields. Hard to say we have a trend on our hands yet. Bernanke stymied the last sell off in U.S. Treasuries (post the Draghi rescue of the Euro in August 2012) by introducing QE infinity in September 2012. That move saw U.S. yields fall back.... yields are rising again now and soon will be back to where they were before the announcement of QE infinity (if this trend continues). If this is a trend then that is a major game changer. Safe haven yields (Germany, Japan and the U.S.) all took heavy hits overnight.

jkt abel 09:27 GMT May 10, 2013
channel support

followed you tom, in 1.5392 same stop, target 1.5430-40

ed kw 09:23 GMT May 10, 2013
Canadian Jobs due. Bernanke speaks

red good man gb

manila tom 09:23 GMT May 10, 2013
channel support
Reply   
Buy GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

bought 1.5388 stop 1.5337

london red 09:21 GMT May 10, 2013
Canadian Jobs due. Bernanke speaks

Re outflows from japan, much talked about for months but until last nights data, there was no sign of it. Think next two weeks are going to show even stronger outflows as someone must be behind the big moves in european bonds.

perth wtr 09:13 GMT May 10, 2013
e/j

suddenly every japanese companies have their profits boosted without doing anything, thanks to Abenomics

perth wtr 09:11 GMT May 10, 2013
e/j

and they still believe the japs, master of ninja camouflage, that it is not currency war, all BS

GVI Forex john bland 09:10 GMT May 10, 2013
Canadian Jobs due. Bernanke speaks

Talk of a tapering of Fed policy sounds premature to me, but there is documentation in Japanese data that capital outflows have been heavy recently. Note also in our fixed income table below that JGB yields were up 7bps today to 0.66%.

hk ab 09:09 GMT May 10, 2013
e/j
Reply   
still feel that eu will start their jawboning soon and if not, they will simply show the wild card "neg. rate" to surprise the BOJ and MOF.

kl fs 09:01 GMT May 10, 2013
sell usdchf

stopped out on the rest, too quick, will pullback a bit i think but has to respect this move, sideline for a while

GVI Forex Inner Circle 09:01 GMT May 10, 2013
Canadian Jobs due. Bernanke speaks
Reply   

  • HIGH IMPACT ITEMS:  CA- Employment, US- Bernanke
  • Markets are still trying to figure out the JPY move through 100 Thursday afternoon. No explanation we have heard is very unsatisfying, but it seems to have been a fundamental rather than a temporary event. Some cited talk about a tightening of Fed policy which seems flimsy while others are mentioning capital flows out of Japan (USD 5.2bln in the past two weeks). This price move should be respected.
  • The JPY decline triggered a wave of stops and drove other major currencies lower such as the AUD and EUR. The Nikkei advanced strongly today.
  • The major item on the calendar is the release of April Canadian employment data.  Fed Chairman Bernanke makes a non-policy speech today  which  will be closely watched.
  • Weekly U.S. jobless Claims fell to a new recent low of 323K in the latest week. They generally support the notion that the economy might be on an improving track. This report may have played a role in the Fed speculation on Thursday.
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
EURUSD 1.3076
JGB 0.66% +7bp
Asia:Higher
USDJPY 98.61
Bund 1.23% +4bp
Europe Higher
EURJPY 128.9
U.S.1.87%  +6bp
U.S.:Higher

GVI Forex Blog 09:00 GMT May 10, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CA- Employment, US- Bernanke Markets are still trying to figure out the JPY move through 100 Thursday afternoon. No explanation we have heard is very unsatisfying, but it seems to have been a fundamental rather than a temporary event. Some cited talk about a tightening of Fed policy which seems flimsy while others are mentioning capital flows out of Japan (USD 5.2bln in the past two weeks). This price move should be respected.

Canadian Jobs due. Bernanke speaks

tokyo ginko 08:37 GMT May 10, 2013
-

today's target revised down to 1.2880/90 levels

GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:33 GMT May 10, 2013
United Kingdom

-- ALERT --
U.K. Trade- March 2013 GBP (bln)
Total Trade: -9.10 vs. -8.90 exp. vs. -9.40 p. (r. -9.20)
non-EU: -3.50 vs. -4.000 exp. vs. -4.270 prev. (r. -4.20)


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:33 GMT May 10, 2013
United Kingdom

-- ALERT --
U.K. Trade- March 2013 GBP (000)
Total Trade: -9.10 vs. -8.90 exp. vs. -9.40 p. (r. -9.20)
non-EU: -3.50 vs. -4.000 exp. vs. -4.270 prev. (r. -4.20)


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:20 GMT May 10, 2013
United Kingdom
Reply   


HEADS-UP: Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update
EURUSD= 1.3032
GBPUSD= 1.5435
USDJPY= 101.26

Direct links to primary data sources

london red 08:17 GMT May 10, 2013
-

ed, have never looked at it to be honest. the main pairs and a couple of minor work related ones have always kept me busy

GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:15 GMT May 10, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply   
Major bond market prices weaker. Peripheral prices are down.

Melbourne Qindex 08:12 GMT May 10, 2013
USD/JPY : Current Comments

Buy USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:





USD/JPY : Short term targeting point 103.108



Qindex.com

USD/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

kl fs 08:07 GMT May 10, 2013
sell usdchf

closed some usdchf short here 0.9527 for +9, average 0.9536

kl shawn 08:02 GMT May 10, 2013
-

Buy GBPUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

cluster of support 1.5420-1.5380, within rising channel, certainly good try

ed kw 07:53 GMT May 10, 2013
-

red your take on gbp/aud

kl fs 07:46 GMT May 10, 2013
-

agree red, i think euro and gbp should bottom out soon, good bet with good r/r coming for those feeling adventurous like me :)

london red 07:43 GMT May 10, 2013
-
Reply   
euro just about down to bottom end of lower channel line on day chart, comes in at 1.30. below there it would suggest a multi figure move lower technical, but there have been strong bids all the way down from 1.30 last time out. would probably need to take out 200 day sma at 12974.
cable has a cluster of support from 15424 down to 1.54, various previous peaks/fibos, so failure to hold on would mean a run down to its own lower channel line.
the break above usdjpy suggests the market is taking on a more risk on attitude, but i think eurchf has been giving these signals for some time, much in line with the slight improvement in european data during the last few weeks. this may well hamper any downside for the euro and cable if the trend becomes more discernable.

kl fs 07:28 GMT May 10, 2013
sell usdchf

ok added 0.9553, stop set above 0.9580, gl gt

kl fs 07:15 GMT May 10, 2013
sell usdchf
Reply   
Sell USDCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

sold 0.9519, adding near 0.9540-50, stop later, target open

GVI Forex Blog 03:36 GMT May 10, 2013 Reply   
Equity markets across the globe after having rallied relentlessly may look to go into a huddle for some days

Morning Briefing : 10-May-2013 -0333 GMT

perth wtr 03:21 GMT May 10, 2013
USDCHF

closed usdchf short 0.9489 for +13, good enough for morning scalp

JERUSALEM kb 03:02 GMT May 10, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels

Buy USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop: 100.7

stops at 100.70 for both

perth wtr 02:53 GMT May 10, 2013
jpy action
Reply   
action and attention back to jpy pairs it seems

Philadelphia Caba 01:50 GMT May 10, 2013
long usd/jpy

1/3 out

Philadelphia Caba 02:58 GMT February 25, 2013
long usd/jpy : Reply
Buy USDJPY
Entry: 94 Target: 125 Stop:

bought again for 125 sometimes this year. s/l set your own..

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:29 GMT May 10, 2013
*** Dollar rallies above 100 yen : May 10, 2013 ***
Reply   
Market Review - 09/05/2013 23:01GMT

Dollar rallies above 100 yen

The greenback surged across the board and pierced through 100 yen, helped by data that showed U.S. jobless claims fell to their lowest level in 5 years.

U.S. initial jobless claim came in at 323K, better than the expectation of 335K, previous reading was revised to 327K from 324K.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback remained under pressure in Asia and dropped to session low at 98.65 ahead of European open. Despite a brief bounce to 98.87 in early European morning, renewed selling pressured price back down to 98.65. However, dollar pared intra-day losses and rose to 99.41 in New York morning after the drop in weekly U.S. jobless claims. Later, price skyrocketed in New York afternoon in thin trading condition and pierced through the much-publicised 100 option barrier and climbed to a fresh 4-year high at 100.79 before stabilising.

Although the single currency traded sideways in Asia and briefly edged higher to session high at 1.3177 in European morning, price pared intra-day gains and retreated to 1.3135 in European morning. Euro met renewed selling pressure at New York open after the release of better-than-expected U.S. jobless claims and fell to 1.3084 in New York morning, price briefly recovered to 1.3115 at New York midday. Later, dollar's renewed strength triggered another wave of selling and euro tanked to an intra-day low at 1.3010 in New York afternoon.

The British pound traded inside a narrow range in Asia and strengthened in European morning before rising to session high at 1.5589 after the Bank of England left its interest rate and QE total unchanged at 0.50% and 375 billion sterling respectively. However, cable came under heavy selling pressure at New York open and tumbled to 1.5486 in New York morning on dollar's strength before falling further to an intra-day low at 1.5426 in New York afternoon.

In other news, U.K. Finance Minister George Osborne said 'G7 will discuss how to nurture a recovery, ensure how public finances in good order; G7 will discuss monetary policy; trade, financial regulation on agenda of G7 meeting.'

On the data front, U.S. wholesale inventories in Mar is report 0.4% m/m, vs the projection of 0.3%; U.S. wholesale sale came in at -1.6%, weaker-than-expected 0.1%, prior reading is revised to 1.5%.

Data to be released on Friday:

Japan current account, economic watch DI, Germany trade balance, current account, import, export, Italy industrial production, UK trade balance and Canada unemployment rate.

Melbourne Qindex 01:28 GMT May 10, 2013
USD/JPY : Current Comments

USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

USD/JPY : The current expected trading range is 100.396 // 100.914 - 101.267 - 101.429 // ...


Qindex.com

USD/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 01:13 GMT May 10, 2013
USD/JPY : Current Comments
Reply   
USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:





USD/JPY : Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above the barrier at 100.935 // 100.982.


Qindex.com

USD/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

perth wtr 01:01 GMT May 10, 2013
USDCHF

Sell USDCHF
Entry: Target: Stop:

Joe, gotta try something. So as planned short usdchf now 0.9502, stop above 0.9520

JERUSALEM kb 00:59 GMT May 10, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels

Sell Gold
Entry: 1460 Target: 1443-1412 Stop: 1468

sell limit

JERUSALEM kb 00:39 GMT May 10, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels

Sell USDJPY
Entry: 101.30 Target: 100.40-99.85 Stop: 100.50

placing a sell limit

JERUSALEM kb 00:37 GMT May 10, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels

USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

holding both longs from 100.30& 100.80 with sl 100.60for Both
and 1O1.30 as target For Both

GVI Forex 00:26 GMT May 10, 2013
Forex News
Reply   
* Euro steady against yen after touching more than 3-year high

* Aussie skids, pressured after this week's RBA cut


FOREX NEWS - Dollar steady at 4-year highs against yen after punching through 100

 




Actionable trading levels delivered LIVE to YOUR charts

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 27 May 2019
AAGB/US- Holiday
Tue 28 May 2019
A 14:00 US- Consumer Confidence
C 13:00 US- Case-Shiller
Wed 29 May 2019
A 08:55 DE- Employment
AA 18:00 US- BOC Decision
A 18:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 30 Mar 2019
AAEZ/CH- Holiday
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 31 Mar 2019
AA 10:00 EZ- Flash HICP
A 12:30 US- Personal Income, Spending, Deflator
AA 14:00 US- Final Univ of Michigan


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