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Forex Forum Archive for 05/11/2013

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Dillon AL 21:27 GMT May 11, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

Weekly setup videos for the EurUsd and GbpUsd. This latter one has GbpJpy and UsdJpy in it as well

See what is in store for the week ahead

To access the videos Click here

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dc CB 19:08 GMT May 11, 2013
Bernanke Takes a "Leak"

publishing their piece behind a wsj subscription key

That's Rupert Murdock's doing...his News to play

GVI Forex Inner Circle 19:03 GMT May 11, 2013
Bernanke Takes a "Leak"

JP- that same thing crossed my mind.

Mtl JP 18:22 GMT May 11, 2013
Bernanke Takes a "Leak"

what a pathetic pretense by the FED trumpet Hilsenrath publishing their piece behind a wsj subscription key

dc CB 16:42 GMT May 11, 2013
Bernanke Takes a "Leak"

Perhaps this is why Ben has announced his "scheduling conflict" that is going to prevent him from showing up at Jackson Hole this year.

This has had to be in the works for some time now (the leaked story). If this dosen't work out, the participants at Jackson Hole may would have had a guillotine erected to greet the Chairman'ss arrival.
Discression is the better part of

dc CB 16:35 GMT May 11, 2013
Bernanke Takes a "Leak"
How about Bernanke's communication policy? The most important development for monetary policy in the last four years comes from a planted story in the Wall Street Journal on a Friday night. While I'm not surprised, I'm still disgusted. Press leaks to favorite journalists are no way to run this show.

The WSJ/Hilsenrath article confirms that the Fed is in the process of changing course on it's QE policy. America has reached "Peak QE", from now on it will be downhill for this policy. May will probably be the last month where $85B of securities are sucked out of the market.

The Fed's new plan is to taper off QE over the balance of the year. Unlike the endings of QE1 & 2 the sunset for QE3 will be a bit of a surprise for markets. The stated intention (according to Hilsenrath) is to change the amounts of POMO purchases on a month to month basis. Reading through the lines, I get the impression that Bernanke is going to lower the QE buys one month, but should the markets react negatively, he would increase the purchases the following month in an effort to "rebuild confidence".

I don't see this new policy working at all. It's the predictability of POMO that gives QE it's market clout. When the predictability is replaced with uncertainty, the markets will not like it. What I find particularly galling is that the Fed believes that it can micro manage US (and global) capital markets. The Fed thinks it can reduce QE one month, but if markets swoon as a result it will just turn around and ratchet up the buying the following month. By doing so, the Fed can manage the markets. I say, "Not a chance".

Submitted by Bruce Krasting on 05/11/2013

Dillon AL 13:47 GMT May 11, 2013

The key to the statement is
markets don't overreact about their next moves
however this shows their naivety due to their manipulations of old.
They seem to have never grasped the point that one dominant trader can be knocked out by a very small trader so long as the dominant trader does not own everything. The key word being everything. This is a point I have made over the years and so their worry about overreact is a falacy. Markets now being "algoed" will always overreact much more so than in the past and there is nothing they can do about that. Once a trend embeds it will continue for longer than most can withstand. Case in point UsdJpy recently or perhaps the Gold move over the last dozen years. To not expect a decent move Sunday night re-open / Monday is not anticipating the unexpected. Most of the big boys are big boys because they manage AUM upwards of 1 trillion. They will react and they will react over multiple days for they care not about micro entry cost but macro average

GVI Forex Inner Circle 11:42 GMT May 11, 2013

Here is the chart for you to watch. Its the best barometer of market sentiment (10yr yield) you are going to find. As rates rise economic sentiment is improving, as they fall it is deteriorating. This will become critical for forex trading.

You can see the markets already were reacting BEFORE the Hisenrath article was published.

Once rates "normalize" the influences on yields will become a lot more complex. Your comments, thoughts, etc. are encouraged.

United States Interest rates. Note 10-yr yield rising as equities climb on the back of an improving economy.

GVI Forex Inner Circle 11:33 GMT May 11, 2013

Hi Mark- yours is the question that faces us all. We know how the JPY reacted to this rumor on Thursday. Markets react to surprises and this is no longer a surprise.

Here are two important paragraphs from the story

"...The Fed's strategy for how and when to wind down the program is of intense interest in financial markets. While the strategy being debated leaves the Fed plenty of flexibility, it might not be the clear and steady path markets expect based on past experience.

Officials are focusing on clarifying the strategy so markets don't overreact about their next moves. For example, officials want to avoid creating expectations that their retreat will be a steady, uniform process like their approach from 2003 to 2006, when they raised short-term interest rates in a series of quarter-percentage-point increments over 17 straight policy meetings..."

So the "purpose" of the story is to "desensitize" the markets. I don't expect a major reaction on Monday because the news was already out last week. The key will be in the bond markets as they will start to discount the departure of a major buyer from the market, even though its departure will likely be very gradual.

From a traders perspective, expect data releases to start to become a dominant force in the markets again. Strong U.S. data will be seen as hastening the Fed departure from the fixed income markets, while soft data will be seen as slowing them.

GVI Forex Inner Circle 11:18 GMT May 11, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

-- GVI Forex Trading Theme of the Week--

It is so typical of the forex markets to do the unexpected. On Thursday of the week just ending, the USDJPY finally breached the 100 level and then ran virtually to 102.00. We all knew it was going to happen soon, but of course never knew when! Also, upside resistance at the 100 level and just below had been very strong. No doubt it was being protected by those managing option positions. Then out of the blue in a quiet market, it all broke loose. There was chatter about a Fed tightening (very unlikely), a report about large Japanese investment outflows in the latest two weeks and talk of a large order to buy USDJPY. What matters when the dust settles is that the markets were vulnerable and therefore move. As we often say, its not the news, but the market reaction to news that matters. This was a major event for the market as it reinforced a lot of latent USD bullishness that had been around.

A rumor Thursday afternoon that an article by Jon Hilsenrath concerning a start to a Fed exit from QE was going to be released proved to have been an accurate leak. When the Fed is ging to act was left vague, the purpose of the story appears to have been to start well in advance to prepare the markets for an exit, so that they are desensitized to the announcement when it comes. The initial mpact of the story was felt in the JPY on Thursday.

One key development recently has been a persistent improvement in U.S. data, although monthly employment figures have tended to lag. On Monday of this week, key retail sales data will be released. Tuesday sees the closely followed German ZEW Survey, which often provides an inkling on how the IFO Survey will show in about a week's time. Key data on Wednesday will be U.K. employment data and EZ GDP readings. The U.S. will see several releases with Industrial Production data likely the most significant. Thursday sees EZ and U.S. CPI data and U.S. Housing Starts. Weekly Jobless Claims are always closely followed. Friday caps off a busy week with Canadian CPI data and the University of Michigan Survey.

For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to visit the Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum as key items are released.

-- John M. Bland,

prague mark 07:07 GMT May 11, 2013

GVI Forex Inner Circle 22:58 GMT May 10, 2013

will it push eur/usd lower when market reopents?

Syd 01:59 GMT May 11, 2013
Spain is officially insolvent: get your money out while you still can
I'd not noticed this until someone drew my attention to it, but the latest IMF Fiscal Monitor, published last month, comes about as close to declaring Spain insolvent as you are ever likely to see in official analysis of this sort. Of course, it doesn't actually say this outright. The IMF is far too diplomatic for such language. But that's the plain meaning of its latest forecasts, which at last have an air of realism about them, rather than being the usual dose of wishful thinking.

Let's take the projected budget deficit first. This is expected to decline quite steeply this year to 6.6 per cent of GDP, but that's mainly because the cost of bailing out the banking sector fell substantially on last year's budget. On a like-for-like basis, there has in fact been very little fall in the underlying deficit. And nor on the present policy mix is there ever likely to be, for that's where the deficit is projected to remain until the end of the IMF's forecasting horizon in 2018.

dc CB 00:12 GMT May 11, 2013

Art for the Demise

dc CB 00:09 GMT May 11, 2013

Art for the Demise


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