Mtl JP 22:34 GMT May 16, 2013
Cable
GBPCAD is one of the crosses that is tilted to the downside
Cambridge Joe 21:50 GMT May 16, 2013
AUDCAD
AUDCAD : A down swing in about 10 mins followed by a more dominant up swing about one hour after that. IMO. GL
One more 'Old Speckled Hen' and it's good night from me !
ed kw 21:38 GMT May 16, 2013
Cable
gbp commodity charts are on the move bet gbp/usd 1.5400
ed kw 21:30 GMT May 16, 2013
Cable
The June British pound closed up 54 points at 1.5270 today.
Prices closed near mid-range and saw short covering. Bears
still have the slight near-term technical advantage.
ed kw 21:25 GMT May 16, 2013
AUDCAD
spi 200[asx] starting to weaken pos aud strength
Cambridge Joe 21:08 GMT May 16, 2013
AUDCAD
Reply
AUDCAD buying here. IMO. GL
GVI Forex Inner Circle 20:49 GMT May 16, 2013
More mixed U.S. data. Positive Japanese GDP
Reply
- HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS: CA- CPI, US- University of Michigan Survey
- Japanese
GDP grew .0.9% q/q (+3.50% pa) in 1Q13 after a revised
+0.30% gain in 4Q12 (+1.0% pa) in 4Q12. The 1Q13 DP
deflator was -1.2%, which is a net ADDITION to GDP.
- The Fed's Williams said in the
NY afternoon that the central bank might be able to trim its bond
purchases by the summer.
- Weekly jobless claims rose,
unwinding a lot of their recent gains. They came in at +360K in the
month, above tour 350K benchmark.. Housing data were mixed,but the
underlying data were strong. CPI data were tame in line with the
PPI report released on Wednesday, The Fed should not be having any
inflation concerns driving future policy decisions.
- The purpose of the latest Fed
signal was to
desensitize markets to the QE tapering announcement when it comes.
Expectations for an eventual end to QE has weighed on bond prices.
- Friday caps off a busy week
with Canadian CPI data and the University of Michigan
Survey.
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.3039
|
JGB
0.81% -7bp
|
Asia:Mixed
|
USDJPY
99.65
|
Bund
1.36% -4bp
|
Europe
Mixed
|
EURJPY
129..93
|
U.S.1.87%
-5bp
|
U.S.:Mixed
|
GVI Forex Blog 20:48 GMT May 16, 2013
Reply
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CA- CPI, US- University of Michigan Survey
Japanese GDP grew .0.9% q/q (+3.50% pa) in 1Q13 after a revised +0.30% gain in 4Q12 (+1.0% pa) in 4Q12. The 1Q13 DP deflator was -1.2%, which is a net ADDITION to GDP.
More mixed U.S. data. Positive Japanese GDP
JERUSALEM kb 20:44 GMT May 16, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels
Sell Gold
Entry: 1368 Target: Stop: 1376
seLL stop &
dont care How Long it will take to go Back to 1369
ed kw 20:36 GMT May 16, 2013
u/j forecast
Reply
ed kw 22:06 GMT May 12, 2013 Reply
Analysis of the monthly chart reveals two major trend lines that lie at 108.66 and 112.27. This creates a powerful area of resistance. The long-term fair value chart shows that the beginnings of a long period of sideways price movement lurks just above par at 100.48. This level is significant as it is what I call a "Bull Trap." Traders see the break above a key technical level at par and think a new, higher leg is developing, only for price to reverse sharply. A close above 102.00 would then target the 112.12 distribution lows, and potentially the fair value from the 2001 highs at 117.96. Key support is at Friday's low at 0.9822.
GVI Forex Blog 20:34 GMT May 16, 2013
Reply
Event risk today: NZ has monthly consumer confidence and PPI, the latter information redundant for markets since CPI is known. US consumer confidence tonight will be watched.
Forex - Westpac Morning Report
ed kw 19:56 GMT May 16, 2013
Gold to AUD Correlation
aud/usa chart looks like last years chart might avg in to top side in jun or july ,for copper is on big support keep i on gbp/aud
GVI Forex F 19:40 GMT May 16, 2013
Chart Points
Reply
UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close
data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.
ed kw 19:34 GMT May 16, 2013
Global Markets News
no thay created a monster that cant stop feeding s/p
london red 19:31 GMT May 16, 2013
Global Markets News
think they are testing the water as recent data hasnt been great and i think they can always backtrack if necessary, but so far its having the desired effect. maybe they are getting the market used to the idea, so over time it becomes less of a problem.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 19:29 GMT May 16, 2013
Global Markets News
ALERT -- this was behind the move up in USD (down in stocks)?
*WILLIAMS SAYS FED MAY REDUCE QE IN SUMMER, HALT BY YEAR END
Williams is a dove so these rather hawkish remarks look substantial
dc CB 19:28 GMT May 16, 2013
United States
WILLIAMS SAYS FED MAY REDUCE QE IN SUMMER, HALT BY YEAR END
WILLIAMS SAYS SLOWING QE WOULDN'T MEAN TIGHTENING IN POLICY
Paris ib 17:10 GMT May 16, 2013
Global Markets News
Agree red. I'm staying away from USD/JPY but I don't think we go higher for now. One thing that interests me at the moment is the feeling that while the BRICs and others on the periphery may be moving away from the USD as a global reserve currency the main players (Japan, Europe and the U.S.) certainly seem to want to keep the USD propped up for a while yet. I think the industrialised world understands how disruptive a shift would be. Doesn't mean it can't happen, just that it will be resisted all the way.
london red 17:05 GMT May 16, 2013
Global Markets News
ib, im looking for a pullback myself on yen pair, to the 10 day sma at least. looking at 100.70/75 as a good point to get involved (just above 38.2 fibo). the market is clearly still willing to give the abenomics a chance flows are starting to look right as far as what the market is looking for and unless sentiment turns decidely, i dont think it pays to fight the trend on this one.
Paris ib 16:57 GMT May 16, 2013
Global Markets News
I agree with you red. I'm a bit surprised with the Euro jawboning. The officials really jump in on this as soon as the Euro looks like rallying. They know the themes to use: negative rates and bail in (the 'we need a weak Euro for our exporters' is just not original enough). So I think European officialdom will keep fighting any Euro up move but that's the only thing holding back a reversal IMO. USD/JPY looks like it may have topped out for the moment. All we have out there are USD/JPY bulls waiting to buy on a pullback.
london red 16:46 GMT May 16, 2013
Global Markets News
think a bit of a pullback was on the cards to be honest given yesterdays iffy data. even before it came in everyone started to wait for someone else to sell the low and you just got the feeling sooner or later the idea will come up to run the stops on dollar downside. think todays data continued the theme and a few weak hands probably gave in looking for a new low for euro. think we could have seen 29 and a half on euro but for jawboning. now as you say, the whipsaw action will probably see people sit out until tomorrow where your not quite saw to position into the underlying trend or looking for a sharper bout of profit taking, particularly since its a quite day on the data front. on any other day id say follow the trend, but with it being a friday anythings possible.
Cape May JB 16:13 GMT May 16, 2013
Gold to AUD Correlation
Reply
The Gold AUDUSD correlation (overlay chart) continues to work exceptionally well.
Anybody have a suggestion on how to leverage it into a trade in AUDUSD?
London Chris 16:04 GMT May 16, 2013
Global Markets News
I will be the first to say this has been one crazy day that tests the resolve of both bulls and bears.
Lousy US economic day, equities barely blinking, forex chasing its tail, bonds are up
I think we see a similar day tomorrow as there are reasons to pause the forex moves but it is not clear why to reverse unless longs bail out.
GVI Forex Inner Circle 16:01 GMT May 16, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply
Major bond market prices ending mostly higher. Peripheral prices up.
Cambridge Joe 15:56 GMT May 16, 2013
Cable
Reply
Cable sells into Asia IMO.GL
GVI Forex Blog 14:52 GMT May 16, 2013
Reply
May 16, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, May 17. Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: CA- CPI, US- University of Michigan Survey.
GVI Forex Data Outlook for 17 May 2013
GVI Forex Inner Circle 14:50 GMT May 16, 2013
Calendar
Reply
May 16, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, May 17.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: CA- CPI, US- University of Michigan Survey.
beijing kaprikorn 14:49 GMT May 16, 2013
Correlation
This whole extremely over-extended move in YEN, Global Stock Indices - all reminds me of what I have read about the Stock market in the Irrational Exuberance times when great global macro managers like George Soros and also Julian Robertson just threw in the towel not being able to make it in the momentum market.
I guess many try to short the market and it just adds fuel but also in such a momentum based market only trend-following systems/strategies yield good return as they would disciplinary keep one in the market (provided the trend-following system is adequately fitting the current market) - but looking at the smooth trend on a daily basis since the crash of 2008, in hindsight it was a great ride to be on and most of people at all stages were guessing, shorting, looking at Roubini for advice when it will crash again and market is just moving making higher highs, higher lows... just that easy.
Beijing Laowen 14:45 GMT May 16, 2013
Correlation
Mate the current trading model of FF is JERUSALEM kb IMO. Just trade the support and resistance, as technically as possible. As for the fundamentals and correlation, they are the toys of Mr. Jay Meisler, a guru level mentor and trader. Simplicity should be the key to profit. GL and GT. Cheers.
beijing kaprikorn 14:37 GMT May 16, 2013
Correlation
Maybe I didn't express my notion correctly but after all the JPY pairs are actually in a really tight correlation with stocks, even now they move really synchronized but this gravity defying direction of the JPY pairs is very interesting.
How long can they buy up any pullback?
Paris ib 14:11 GMT May 16, 2013
United States
The USD/JPY also seems to be taking notice.
GVI Forex Inner Circle 14:06 GMT May 16, 2013
United States
Data to EURUSD developing a POSITIVE correlation. That means USD weakening on weak data (higher EURUSD) and vice-versa. This is the traditional relationship with data.
GVI Forex Inner Circle 14:03 GMT May 16, 2013
United States
More weak data. Notice EURUSD has been reacting to data.
beijing kaprikorn 13:40 GMT May 16, 2013
Correlation
The other side of resilience is that one never knows the actual timing so that makes trading quite an experience.
Many times it's obvious the trajectory a pair will transcend but the actual moves and the volatility in the meantime are a drag to the performance.
We never know if the resilience is because of building pressure or just of slow market waiting for flow to come to market to move it..
Belgrade TD 13:36 GMT May 16, 2013
Daily TA trade
Buy EURJPY
Entry: ~132 Target: ~133/+ Stop: later
Long here ...
beijing kaprikorn 13:36 GMT May 16, 2013
Correlation
Reply
Hello,
May I ask for your opinions on the following matter:
Usually the JPY pairs work in a tight correlation with stocks - case in point USDJPY and Nikkei
So now as the stocks soar the JPY pairs are extremely resilient, does it mean the correlation is somewhat changing?
I might be one of those why look with great interest the stellar rise in the USDJPY and can't stop asking myself how far in uncharted territory it can soar ...
Belgrade TD 13:34 GMT May 16, 2013
Daily TA trade
Belgrade TD 08:41:07 GMT - 05/16/2013
EUR/USD short from ~1,296 ... half out here ~ 1,286 ... stop near BE for rest ...
///
out rest ~ 1,29 ...
manila tom 13:22 GMT May 16, 2013
United States
Said it on previous number that the next will show unemployment again. Previous data were suspicious enough.
london red 13:12 GMT May 16, 2013
Euro
Reply
Has seen a rebound on data weaker than some expected, personally now interested in shorts at 12930 to 12950 region.
GVI Forex Inner Circle 13:03 GMT May 16, 2013
United States
U.S. CPI Inflation remains tame.
GVI Forex Inner Circle 12:49 GMT May 16, 2013
United States
Weekly Jobless data back above the critical 350K level bears scrutiny....
Click on chart for ten-year history
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:47 GMT May 16, 2013
USDX
Joe, never a pain
GVI Forex Inner Circle 12:47 GMT May 16, 2013
United States
New Homes Sales, Starts and Permits mixed, but it looks like they are headed higher...
Cambridge Joe 12:44 GMT May 16, 2013
USDX
Thanks Jay. I just don't want to become a pain in the arse.
It might be too late for that of course ! :-)
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 12:41 GMT May 16, 2013
USDX
Joe, post as often as you want.
Cambridge Joe 12:40 GMT May 16, 2013
USDX
Last time.... promise !
How lucky was that ? :-))
Cambridge Joe 07:18 GMT May 16, 2013
USDX: Reply
USDX softer about 1 hour hence. IMO. GL
Amsterdam Alicia 12:11 GMT May 16, 2013
Ozmond
Purky...make sure that rubber doesnt have a hole in it. for better use be like the rest of the dutch boys : Put it over your head and become a di-k head.
Melbourne Qindex 11:42 GMT May 16, 2013
EUR/USD and Gold
Reply
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
EUR-GOLD : The market is going to tackle the barrier at 1060.3 // 1062.9. Panic selling will be triggered if the market is trading below 1059.6. On the other hand the market is stable if it can close above 1100.7 in the New York session.
Qindex.com
EUR-GOLD : Monthly Cycle Charts
Melbourne Qindex 11:11 GMT May 16, 2013
AUD/USD and Gold
Reply
AUDUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
AUD-GOLD (1402.58) : Keep an eye on the correlation between AUD/USD and Gold. The market is stable if it can retrace back to 1420.0. On the other hand AUD-GOLD can easily push further down to 1375.0. The market is now challenging the barrier at 1399.9 // 1400.7.
Qindex.com
AUD-GOLD : Monthly Cycle Charts
Cambridge Joe 10:50 GMT May 16, 2013
GBPNZD
Reply
12:30 GMT looks like a nice time to be short GBPNZD. IMO. GL
Surely a relief to some, I'm going to reduce posts as I think there are thousands of people out there with thousands of trade ideas....... time to get posting !
Cambridge Joe 10:33 GMT May 16, 2013
E/$
Ya... may well be. Looks like eur usd has failed to jump the gap.....
Belgrade TD 10:19 GMT May 16, 2013
Daily TA trade
Sell EURAUD
Entry: ~1,311 Target: ~1,3/1,29/ ... Stop: ~1,317
Sold ...
Plovdiv Gotin 10:16 GMT May 16, 2013
E/$
Breaking Fibo 1.2680 next is 1.2630 min....1.2141 max
Plovdiv Gotin 10:11 GMT May 16, 2013
E/$
Reply
EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
This 1.2843 is TP on the road to 1.2624. Something else?
GVI Forex Inner Circle 09:42 GMT May 16, 2013
Positive Japanese GDP. U.S. data awaited
Reply
- HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS: US- CPI, Housing Starts, Weekly Jobs
- Japanese
GDP grew .0.9% q/q (+3.50% pa) in 1Q13 after a revised
+0.30% gain in 4Q12 (+1.0% pa) in 4Q12. The 1Q13 DP
deflator was -1.2%, which is a net ADDITION to GDP.
- Today sees U.S. CPI,
Housing Starts.and Weekly
Jobless Claims which are always closely followed. .
- Markets are still adjusting to
the Fed signal that it is preparing for an exit from Quantitative Ease.
This marked a key shift from the signal sent after the May 1 FOMC
meeting just two weeks ago. At that time the Fed policy guidance was
equivocal.
- The purpose of the new signal
was to
desensitize markets to the actual announcement when it comes.
Expectations for an eventual end to QE has weighed on bond prices.
- Friday caps off a busy week
with Canadian CPI data and the University of Michigan
Survey.
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.3047
|
JGB
0.89% +1bp
|
Asia:Mixed
|
USDJPY
99.45
|
Bund
1.36% -4bp
|
Europe
Mixed
|
EURJPY
129.76
|
U.S.1.93%
-2bp
|
U.S.:Mixed
|
GVI Forex Blog 09:41 GMT May 16, 2013
Reply
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- CPI, Housing Starts, Weekly Jobs
Japanese GDP grew .0.9% q/q (+3.50% pa) in 1Q13 after a revised +0.30% gain in 4Q12 (+1.0% pa) in 4Q12. The 1Q13 DP deflator was -1.2%, which is a net ADDITION to GDP.
Positive Japanese GDP. U.S. data awaited
manila tom 09:15 GMT May 16, 2013
Ozmond
Purk, dont worry about them, let them put their fresh trades on the table first
GVI Forex Inner Circle 09:10 GMT May 16, 2013
Eurozone
EZ HICP. No inflation worries for the ECB...
JERUSALEM KB 09:03 GMT May 16, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels
JERUSALEM KB 18:39:16 GMT - 05/15/2013
Sell Gold
Entry: 1389 Target: 1335/1285 Stop: 1396
sell stop ------------------130pips trailing stop===
====
HIT SL BEFORE IT GOES DOWN-70
GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:51 GMT May 16, 2013
Eurozone
Reply
HEADS-UP: Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update
EURUSD= 1.2861
GBPUSD= 1.5205
USDJPY= 102.47
AUDUSD= 0.9805
USDCAD= 1.0189
Direct links to primary data sources
Amsterdam Purk 08:50 GMT May 16, 2013
Ozmond
Reply
Of course there will be a lot of people saying this and that about longing, go with the trend and stuff. I decided to go for it, trade around, and make money.
I use rubber...
GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:46 GMT May 16, 2013
Japan
Reply
EARLIER: Japanese GDP grew .0.9% q/q (+3.50% pa) in 1Q13 after a revised +0.30% gain in 4Q12 (+1.0% pa) in 4Q12. The 1Q13 DP deflator was -1.2%, which is a net ADDITION to GDP.
Belgrade TD 08:41 GMT May 16, 2013
Daily TA trade
EUR/USD short from ~1,296 ... half out here ~ 1,286 ... stop near BE for rest ...
GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:27 GMT May 16, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply
Major bond market prices opening mostly higher. Peripheral prices up.
UK BA 08:24 GMT May 16, 2013
AuD
Reply
Aussie bulls throwing in the towel? Any buyers at .98?
manila tom 08:11 GMT May 16, 2013
USDX
cheers Joe, we are right at 1.2850 support +- 20 dancing around the line, but overall a good r/r here imho to play for a good bounce rather than forcing sell
Cambridge Joe 08:03 GMT May 16, 2013
USDX
:-) cheers Tom !
I've been lucky, still need to be careful.... figures could cause some convulsion, but over all when the dust settles, I see eur higher.
manila tom 07:59 GMT May 16, 2013
USDX
let's go Joe, buy euro
Cambridge Joe 07:30 GMT May 16, 2013
USDX
eurusd shorts need to BRACE ! IMO. GL
Cambridge Joe 07:18 GMT May 16, 2013
USDX
Reply
USDX softer about 1 hour hence. IMO. GL
UK Sp 06:05 GMT May 16, 2013
Paris IB
Investing into a pork kebab franchise in the Gaza strip is not an investment KB :)
Israel Dil 05:41 GMT May 16, 2013
Paris IB
Reply
Paris IB
if you are after investment that may deliver great return then take contact with me:
Paris ib 05:36 GMT May 16, 2013
TIC data
Reply
I note that TIC data released yesterday in the States didn't get much cover.
"Taking into account transactions in both foreign and U.S. securities, the net foreign purchases of long-term securities were negative $13.5 billion. After including adjustments... the overall net foreign acquisition of long-term securities is estimated to have been negative $31.9 billion in March.
TIC data
Paris ib 05:28 GMT May 16, 2013
USD/JPY
Joe nice little summary there!! So it's all geo-politics after all. To h.ell with fundamentals just watch the chess pieces.
I found it interesting that AUD came under pressure shortly after the Australians agreed to exchange currency directly with the Chinese. The BRICS are already on to this (is that why they're not flavour of the month any more?). The undermining of the USD as world reserve currency continues, despite all our friendly little hedge fund efforts to stop the rot.
Still it is all slightly mad IMVHO. :-)
China and Australia
Hong Kong AceTrader 01:51 GMT May 16, 2013
Euro tumbles on weak eurozone GDP data : May 16, 2013
Reply
Market Review - 15/05/2013 23:00GMT
Euro tumbles on weak eurozone GDP data
The single currency tumbled against the dollar on Wednesday after GDP data from Germany and eurozone came in weaker-than-expected.
On the data front, German GDP in Q1 came in at -0.1% Q/Q n -1.4% y/y, vs the forecast 0.3% Q/Q. Euro zone GDP in Q1 came in at -0.2% Q/Q n -1.0% y/y, worse than the expectation of -0.2% n -0.9% respectively.
Although the single currency retreated to 1.2921 in early Asian morning, price rebounded to session high at 1.2943 ahead of European open. Euro met renewed selling pressure there and fell sharply to 1.2888 after the release of weaker-than-expected Germany GDP data. Despite a brief rebound to 1.2917, price fell again after eurozone GDP came in lower than forecast, eventually dropping to an intra-day low at 1.2843 at New York open.
Later, euro pared intra-day losses and recovered to 1.2890 on dollar's broad-based retreat after data showed producer prices dropped by the largest amount in 3 years, however, price retreated again to 1.2847 at New York midday before rebounding to 1.2888 in U.S. afternoon.
U.S. Empire manufacturing index in May came in at -1.43, worse than the expectation of 4.00; U.S. PPI in April is reported -0.6% m/m n 0.8% y/y, vs the forecast of -0.3% n 0.8% respectively.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback traded with a firm undertone in Asia and rose above Tuesday's 102.44 high at European open. Price continued to ratchet higher and hit a fresh 4-1/2 year high at 102.77 in European morning. However, dollar pared intra-day gains and fell briefly but sharply to intra-day low at 101.85 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based weakness. Despite a recovery to 102.61 at New York midday, renewed selling interest capped the pair's upside and pushed price lower in New York afternoon.
Although the British pound traded sideways in Asia and dropped briefly to 1.5192 in early European morning, price rebounded to an intra-day high at 1.5273 in European morning after the Bank of England upgraded its estimate of the U.K. economy and the Bank of England governor Mervyn King said a recovery was now 'in sight'. However, cable pared intra-day gains and fell to session low at 1.5173 at New York open before staging a strong recovery to 1.5268 in New York morning on dollar's weakness.
BoE's King said 'today is the first time I have been able to give a brighter economic outlook since financial crisis; but this is no time to be complacent, must press on to ensure a recovery; U.K. economy still faces challenge of substantial rebalancing; this has not been a typical recession, will not be typical recovery.'
Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand business PMI, Japan GDP, industrial production, capacity utilisation, Italy trade balance, EU CPI, trade balance, U.S. CPI, jobless claims, housing starts, building permits and Philadelphia fed survey.
many more chart points
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