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Forex Forum Archive for 05/21/2013

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manila tom 23:59 GMT May 21, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

so far so good Dr. Qindex, once it stabilises above 1.2928 then we should see 1.2970-80 soon and even 1.3020 by friday, cheers

Melbourne Qindex 23:32 GMT May 21, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:




EUR/USD : The market is performing well in the last trading session. The supporting range is expected to move higher to 1.2875 - 1.2902. EUR/USD will move higher and tackle the range at 1.2950 - 1.2981.


Qindex.com

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

GVI Forex Inner Circle 21:26 GMT May 21, 2013
Calendar
Reply   


May 21, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Wednesday, May 22. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JP- BOJ, GB- BOE Minutes, Retail Sales, Bernanke, Existing Homes Sales, Fed Minutes.

  • Far East: JP- BOJ.
  • Europe: EZ- Current Account, GB- BOE Minutes, Retail Sales, CBI Trends.
  • North America: US- Bernanke Testimony, Existing Homes Sales, Weekly Crude. Fed Minutes.


  • Direct links to primary data sources


Livingston nh 21:14 GMT May 21, 2013
US Dollar

Biggest risk w/ Ben is the potential disagreement among his fellows - he is a "lame duck" - money must move to be effective and some folks think Ben too concerned w/ bank stability

GVI Forex Inner Circle 20:42 GMT May 21, 2013
UK CPI & RPI weighs on GBP. Bernanke and BOJ Wednesday
Reply   

  • HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JP- BOJ, GB- BOE Minutes, Retail Sales, Bernanke, Existing Homes Sales, Fed Minutes
  • Wednesday will see the minutes from the latest Fed Meeting (May 1) and testimony by Chairman Bernanke to the House. This testimony will give him ample opportunity to signal to the markets what the current intentions of the central bank may be.  Fed speakers  recently have  been  leaning in favor of a start to tapering bond purchases.
  • U.K. inflation data released Tuesday were softer than expected but still above BOE target. The GBP fell on the news.
  •  USDJPY traded steady after the Japanese Economics Minister backed off  expressions of satisfaction with the current value of the JPY. The Nikkei gained and 10-yr JGB yields were higher. A BOJ decision is due on Wednesday. No change in policy is expected.
  • Thursday sees a number of flash PMI reports  U.K. data could also influence the GBP The critical German IFO Survey is due on Friday.
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
EURUSD 1.3013
JGB 0.87% +3bp
Asia:Mixed
USDJPY 100.13
Bund 1.37% +2bp
Europe Higher
EURJPY 130.30
U.S.1.94%  -2bp
U.S.:Higher

GVI Forex Blog 20:40 GMT May 21, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JP- BOJ, GB- BOE Minutes, Retail Sales, Bernanke, Existing Homes Sales, Fed Minutes Wednesday will see the minutes from the latest Fed Meeting (May 1) and testimony by Chairman Bernanke to the House. This testimony will give him ample opportunity to signal to the markets what the current intentions of the central bank may be. Fed speakers recently have been leaning in favor of a start to tapering bond purchases.

UK CPI & RPI weighs on GBP. Bernanke and BOJ Wednesday

GVI Forex Inner Circle 20:31 GMT May 21, 2013
United States
Reply   

-- ALERT --
(Estimates and Previous data for EIA Survey)
Crude Oil: +0.500 vs. 0 exp vs. -0.625 prev.
Gasoline: +3.000 vs. -0.5 exp vs. +2.600 prev.
Distillates:+0.460 vs. -0.5 exp vs. +2.300 prev.
Cap/Util: 86.8% vs. n/a exp. vs. 88.0% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Inner Circle 19:39 GMT May 21, 2013
Chart Points


UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex Inner Circle 19:34 GMT May 21, 2013
Chart Points
Reply   
Preliminary Closing Trading Points...
many more chart points
About Moving Averages
About Bollinger Bands


JERUSALEM kb 18:48 GMT May 21, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels

Sell Gold
Entry: 1358 Target: 1339-open Stop: 1365

sell stop

hk ab 18:18 GMT May 21, 2013
Ireland - Apple

PAR, Cyprus x 2?

or Cyprus 2nd?

for Irish

PAR 18:04 GMT May 21, 2013
Ireland - Apple

It is not only Apple .


However, corporate taxes as a percentage of government receipts are at an all-time low:

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/two-charts-corporate-tax-avoidance-revenue-offshore-2013-5#ixzz2Tx3iDylq

PAR 17:58 GMT May 21, 2013
Ireland - Apple

Or create a new " Bank Bankruptcy App " .

Livingston nh 17:50 GMT May 21, 2013
Ireland - Apple

Maybe just let the banks fend for themselves --

PAR 17:47 GMT May 21, 2013
Ireland - Apple
Reply   
Next time Ireland faces a banking crisis they could ask Apple for help instead of poor Irish people and European taxpayers . LoL

Livingston nh 17:29 GMT May 21, 2013
US Dollar

ab - my thought is rates influence the USD (and world rates??) - gold is selling off since April // Fed has to control rates - if it stops buying treasuries it is forfeiting control to the market - ergo it has to hike but keep buying

hk ab 17:24 GMT May 21, 2013
US Dollar

even yen rate was kept at 0.00 for so long, it had been staying in the 70-80 region for so long as well.....

hk ab 17:23 GMT May 21, 2013
US Dollar

nh, they can still buy gold on eur and jpy if they want to push.....imvho

Livingston nh 17:17 GMT May 21, 2013
US Dollar

what if the Fed raises rates and continues to buy treasuries? gold isn't money but it is sensitive to rates

GVI Forex 17:14 GMT May 21, 2013
Prelude to Bernanke?
Reply   
FED: FRBNY Pres Dudley remains dovish. He talks of adjusting QE up or down, unsure of which way next, but warns of mkts overreacting to taper and posits Fed might want to hold, not sell, MBS to prevent a rate rise. He says Jun'11 exit advisory is dated and Fed should update thinking on bal sheet, possibly with eye on how to "mitigate potential costs and risks." Says FOMC "could decide to indicate that it will avoid selling the MBS portfolio" during early stage of normalization or perhaps not sell MBS at all to avoid a sharp increase in long rates. Challenge will be getting "the initial tightening of financial market conditions... commensurate to what we desire. There is a risk is that market participants could overreact" or move too fast. That would threaten fin'l stability, also "make it harder to calibrate mon policy appropriately." He wants QE "to respond flexibly to a changing econ outlook," but not disrupt the economy. "Based on what we have learned to date at the zero bound, I believe that it will be important for us to anchor all communication" around Fed's core principles of getting a better econ and low infl.

MNI

HK Kevin 17:10 GMT May 21, 2013
Sell EUR/USD
Reply   
Limit sell order 1.2930 executed. Next added level at 1.2980. Overall stop at 1.3060, t/p 1.2780

GVI Forex Inner Circle 16:44 GMT May 21, 2013
Canada
Reply   
Final Speech by BOC Carney as head of BOC...

Canada Works

Cambridge Joe 16:39 GMT May 21, 2013
trading

I've got a window abt 45 Mins out and appr 45 mins wide shoukld see softer e/$... for a start.

IMO. GL

Cambridge Joe 16:35 GMT May 21, 2013
trading

I've got e/$ looking like it's to drop into Asia. Pick your time..!

A violent seesaw.

IMO. GL

PAR 16:22 GMT May 21, 2013
US Dollar
Reply   
Dollar weaker as Bernanke will keep printing dollars as never before .

Cambridge Joe 16:02 GMT May 21, 2013
trading

as long as stops are above 53.... should hang in there... ?

GVI Forex Inner Circle 15:46 GMT May 21, 2013
Fixed Income

Major bond market prices mostly weaker. Peripheral prices mixed.

LDN CH 15:44 GMT May 21, 2013
trading

stooopppssss

GVI Forex 15:36 GMT May 21, 2013
Global Markets News
Reply   
US equities continue to trade sideways this morning as markets lack major catalysts for a second consecutive day. Traders are waiting with great anticipation for Fed Chairman Bernanke's Congressional testimony tomorrow mornin

TradeTheNews.com US Market Update: Waiting for Bernanke, US Markets Flat

Miami JN 15:33 GMT May 21, 2013
trading

What happened to eur????

London Chris 15:09 GMT May 21, 2013
trading
Reply   
Is anyone trading or are we all waiting for tomorrow's Bernanke fireworks?

GVI Forex 14:17 GMT May 21, 2013
EURCHF
Reply   
eurchf pops above 1.25

london red 13:46 GMT May 21, 2013
GBPUSD

to clarify; ready to nail gbp vs euro. cable is another matter with dollar side the focus.

london red 13:41 GMT May 21, 2013
GBPUSD

first couple of rebounds off trendline were tradable, but since 8500 taken looks like 200 week will come into play at 8517. i wouldnt stand in the way of that if broken convincingly but you have to wonder if market is ready to nail gbp with minutes tomorrow. thats enough to allow me to let any upside run. as always there will be plenty of chances to get on board without such issues.

Cambridge Joe 13:35 GMT May 21, 2013
GBPUSD

I'm getting firmer Cable ... worth guarding your shorts !

NY JM 13:16 GMT May 21, 2013
GBPUSD
Reply   
1.5034 is next key support on daily chart -- so no obvious stops below the market.

As red pointed out, eurgbp .8500 is more of the focus

Cambridge Joe 13:00 GMT May 21, 2013
USDMXN
Reply   
$/MXN : Nice down move lurking about 10 mins out from here.

IMO. GL (softer)

SaR KaL 12:08 GMT May 21, 2013
Kal`s Trend and Level:Reply



ideas of politicians of what reforms should look like.
makes sence

GVI Forex 11:57 GMT May 21, 2013
Forex News
Reply   
* Japanese economy minister hopes for "balanced" yen

* Bernanke's Congressional testimony, BOJ meeting in focus

* Dollar index underpinned near three-year high

FOREX NEWS - Dollar resumes upward trek, Bernanke key to more gains

SaR KaL 11:49 GMT May 21, 2013
Kal`s Trend and Level:Reply

if and only if?...No?
not done dat for a while

ok

if and only if GBPNZD does not go above 1.88 within the next 15 hrs...I will do the following;

1) Head down to Mali...dive with tiger sharks all night...then come back and have Rice cockroaches for dinner.
2) Fly over to Sierra and call the president an azz on National TV.
3) Take flight all the way to north Korea...and tell everyone I hate Garlic.

End if

SaR KaL 11:33 GMT May 21, 2013
Kal`s Trend and Level:Reply

gbpchf
fine long below 1.47
tgt 1.49 area
longer term
1.52

SaR KaL 11:25 GMT May 21, 2013
Kal`s Trend and Level:Reply

eurgbp
can short for 100 pips

SaR KaL 11:21 GMT May 21, 2013
Kal`s Trend and Level:Reply

it's gonna get really bad today folks.
objectivity and measurable...and not political

SaR KaL 11:17 GMT May 21, 2013
Kal`s Trend and Level:Reply



what i rather do is this

SaR KaL 10:55 GMT May 21, 2013
Kal`s Trend and Level:Reply

I will long cable today if below 1.5050
to 1.5000
tgt 1.5210 Max

eurusd 1.2660 to 1.2630
tgt 1.2890 Max

now short on both

SaR KaL 10:46 GMT May 21, 2013
Kal`s Trend and Level:Reply

Purk
Just where it can not go...Rather then where it will
if it did it fast enough... i will get out


gbpnzd and gbpaud
are very much near the point of no return

if one longs and goes his way
then we wont see these levels again for at least 3 weeks

GVI Forex Jay Meisler 10:41 GMT May 21, 2013
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Amsterdam Purk 10:34 GMT May 21, 2013
Kal`s Trend and Level:Reply

Aud is not going to move 300 pips today Khalid, 150 yes maybe. I will be there to long for a handful of pips...

SaR KaL 10:33 GMT May 21, 2013
Kal`s Trend and Level:Reply

audusd tgt .94 for today
.90 for 2 wks

SaR KaL 10:31 GMT May 21, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

gone short nzdjpy here for 81 tgt

longing there 81
for 83 tgt

GVI Forex 10:26 GMT May 21, 2013
Global Markets News
Reply   
Softer inflation data sent the GBP currency to session lows below 1.5190 and offered BOE more room to stimulate should data does disappoint

TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: UK inflation comes in lower than expected and offers BOE more room to stimulate if data does disappoint

mukalla waleed 09:41 GMT May 21, 2013
Kal`s Trend and Level:Reply
Reply   
you have mentioned .99 for chf,what about .95 for aud??
have you still expect.

manila tom 09:06 GMT May 21, 2013
United Kingdom

red, agree with your assessment for cable, i still prefer buy dips in this 1.50-1.51 area on weekly basis 1.5070 was a strong support too

GVI Forex Inner Circle 09:04 GMT May 21, 2013
UK CPI & RPI data softer than expected. U.S. Calendar light
Reply   

  • HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- No Major Data
  • Tuesday sees key UK CPI and RPI data. U.K. inflation data softer than expected but still above BOE target
  •  The USDJPY is steadty after the Japanese Economics Minister backed off from his comments expressing satisfaction with the current value of the JPY. The Nikkei gained and 10-yr JGB yields are higher.
  • A BOJ decision is due on Wednesday. No change in policy is expected.
  • Wednesday will see the minutes from the latest Fed Meeting (May 1) and testimony by Chairman Bernanke to the House. This testimony will give him ample opportunity to signal to the markets what the current intentions of the central bank may be.
  • Thursday sees a number of flash PMI reports  U.K. data could also influence the GBP The critical German IFO Survey is due on Friday.
20d avg
10-yr
Equities
EURUSD 1.3019
JGB 0.85% +6bp
Asia:Higher
USDJPY 99.99
Bund 1.35% +3bp
Europe Higher
EURJPY 130.17
U.S.1.97%  +2bp
U.S.:Mixed

GVI Forex Blog 09:02 GMT May 21, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- No Major Data Tuesday sees key UK CPI and RPI data inflation data softer than expected but still above BOE target

UK CPI & RPI data softer than expected. U.S. Calendar light

london red 08:42 GMT May 21, 2013
United Kingdom

inflation lower which offers chance for further qe but hands are tied now until carney takes helm and july might be too early to jump in, rather august if data allows.
15150 said to be well supported, should hold into bernanke tomorrow, but boe minutes first which should boost gbp. looking to buy cable ahead of support and/or sell eurgbp 85 cents

GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:39 GMT May 21, 2013
United Kingdom



U.K. CPI & RPIX data easier than expected, but still above BOE target.

SaR KaL 08:34 GMT May 21, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

usdchf into .99

GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:34 GMT May 21, 2013
United Kingdom

UK inflation data broadly softer than expected.

GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:32 GMT May 21, 2013
United Kingdom

-- ALERT --
UK CPI/RPIX April 2013
CPI mm: +0.20% vs. +0.40% exp. vs. +0.30% prev.
CPI yy: +2.40% vs. +2.60% exp. vs. +2.80% prev.

RPIX yy: +2.90% vs. +3.10% exp. vs. +3.20% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer


Direct links to primary data sources

SaR KaL 08:32 GMT May 21, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

usdcad into 1.0540
from here

Syd 08:31 GMT May 21, 2013
TradeTheNews.com
Reply   
PT) Presidents of Portugal banks BCP and Banco Espírito Santo call on European leaders 'to stop playing with fire' and warn that the 'virus of Cyprus' could spread- financial press- Cyprus bail-out not done in the best way, it was too unpredictable. A bail-in is a good idea but it needs to come with clearly spelled out rules. European leaders need to come up with a plan at the EU summit in June - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:30 GMT May 21, 2013
United Kingdom

-- ALERT --
UK Core Output PPI April 2013
yy:+0.80% vs. +1.10% exp. vs. +1.30% prev.


TTN: Live News Special Offer

GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:29 GMT May 21, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply   
Prices in prime fixed income market mixed to weaker. Peripherals mixed.


ed kw 08:28 GMT May 21, 2013
gbp

gbp oil starting to use fracking technology will help gdp

GVI Forex Blog 08:27 GMT May 21, 2013 Reply   
- (AU) AUSTRALIA RBA POLICY MINUTES FOR MAY MEETING: Decided some easing scope should be used at the May meeting - (AU) AUSTRALIA MAR CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING INDEX: 0.1% V 0.3% PRIOR (3rd consecutive

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: JPY weakens after Japan Econ Min Amari clarifies position on yen correction; AUD gains on neutral policy bias in RBA minutes - Source TradeTheNews.com

GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:17 GMT May 21, 2013
United Kingdom
Reply   


HEADS-UP: Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update
EURUSD= 1.2880
GBPUSD= 1.5225
USDJPY= 102.71
AUDUSD= 0.9805
USDCAD= 1.0263

Direct links to primary data sources

london red 08:17 GMT May 21, 2013
gbp

for aud and nzd a lot depends on global growth expectations. bigs levels at 9870 and 8285 (well worth a short if seen today or tomorrow), for higher think there needs to be a pick up in china growth and possibly europe too.

ed kw 08:11 GMT May 21, 2013
gbp

gbp can only get better and aud can only get worse until aud new gov

SaR KaL 08:07 GMT May 21, 2013
gbp

Ed
Agree GBPAUD
I am Long TGT 1.60
2 weeks tgt 1.66

SaR KaL 08:06 GMT May 21, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Ed
I do not do this pair...Sorry

Cable might hit 1.509 area then back again to 1.52
I doubt AUDUSD NZDUSD and EURUSD will the same

NZDUSD Closing Shorts at 0.78 then reshort from 0.8030
AUDUSD closing Shorts around 0.9400

EURUSD 1.2690
USDJPY 104.3

ed kw 08:03 GMT May 21, 2013
gbp

gbp/aud might get a good entry for the up side than

london red 07:58 GMT May 21, 2013
gbp
Reply   
uk inflation coming up in half an hour. i thinking cpi could come in slightly less than expected at 2.5% or less (consensus 2.6%). dollar is still in profit take mode so cable may not suffer too much. eurgbp should get a boost however but would look to fade a move to 8500 as tomorrow come boe minutes and retail sales. the later may be poor, but the minutes may well inidicate a shift in voting and a brighter picture (data during that time was very encouraging) so gbp should be boosted by that.

ed kw 07:55 GMT May 21, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

there is a big support line in aud/cad

ed kw 07:45 GMT May 21, 2013
g,y
Reply   
nikkei is on reveng to up side gbp/jpy

Amman wfakhoury 07:42 GMT May 21, 2013
EURJPY 132.35
Reply   
Amman wfakhoury 14:46 GMT May 20, 2013
EURJPY 132.35: Reply
132.35 confirmed .. also we have a gap.131.73 also consolidation level.
buy and buy another @131 .10 if decline.

--------------
132.35 reached

tokyo ginko 07:37 GMT May 21, 2013
eur/usd short here for range trade
Reply   
s-l 1.2930 bid..for test of 1.2780

SaR KaL 07:18 GMT May 21, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

3 pairs that will reverse from this week into the next 2-3 weeks

EURCAD from 1.3400 wants 1.30
CADJPY from 98.5 to 105
cadchf from .93 to 0.99
still bullish USD for 2-3 weeks

Cambridge Joe 07:15 GMT May 21, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

Interesting KaL !

I just took a gbpnzd long about 10 mins ago !! :-)

SaR KaL 07:11 GMT May 21, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

GBPNZD could do a north of 10 Big ones this week

JERUSALEM kb 07:06 GMT May 21, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels

USDJPY
Entry: 102.8 Target: 103.20 Stop: 102.4

buy stop

Changsha 06:18 GMT May 21, 2013
AUD/USD May 21, 2013
Reply   
AUD/USD rises to a new high of 0.9813 of this hour.

Changsha 06:18 GMT May 21, 2013
Charles Evans: No rush in downscaling QE
Reply   
The Chicago Fed President Charles Evans indicated on May 20 when speaking to the Chicago CFA Society that the job market has turned into a good progress, which still needed more time for evaluation though.

Evans signified that he held no brief for taking measures to downscale QE in the Monetary Policy Conference from June 8 to June 19. However, he demonstrated his optimistic attitude to the outlook for U.S. economy and belief in its true recovery.

Evans claimed that the U.S. economy had always been highly resilient, especially under the environment of the antidromic fiscal policy and global weakening economy. In the aspect of inflation, he was also pleased to see the CPI rising more closely to the Fed’s 2% goal.

Changsha 06:17 GMT May 21, 2013
Gold: Sell, sell, sell!
Reply   
By Greg Canavan from BullionVault, May 20, 2013

Time to sell gold? Leveraged traders sure think so...
ANOTHER DAY, another beating for gold and silver investors, writes Greg Canavan at The Daily Reckoning Australia.
After trading lower all day Friday, Asian futures markets today opened in a panic, with leveraged holders no doubt getting margin calls over the weekend. The result? Stump up more cash or sell. Clearly, selling is the preferred option.
It seems like a lot of punters are trying to pick the bottom. They're buying in the expectation of a bounce...and when that doesn't eventuate, more selling takes place.
In gold, we're now closing in on the low from April at around US$1320. Will it hold or head lower still? We have no idea. And we certainly wouldn't be utilising the futures market to make a bet on it.
But we do know that for every seller there is a buyer, whether it's in the futures market or the physical gold market. Some are happy that prices are again back at levels from a few years ago. They're the 'strong hands' and they're taking in what the 'weak hands' throw into the market.
All this reminds us of 1999. Back then you had financial market euphoria in the midst of a new internet age. The tech bubble was in full swing. Stocks – especially anything tech related – were a sure thing. They went up day after day on nothing more than hope and expectation.
Meanwhile, gold was in the doldrums...a barbarous relic well past its time. In the modern age of pets.com and new paradigms, gold was an anachronism. But as hindsight was to show, 1999 represented the nadir in gold's long bear market.
Today, we are in a similar state of market euphoria. Everyone is jumping on the central bank bandwagon. They're making bets that can't lose. Downside risk has central bank protection (the Bernanke put) and the upside is unlimited.
What could possible go wrong?
Against this backdrop, institutional investors and speculators dump gold futures to go long S&P futures. And it's a great trade at the moment. It 'makes sense'. As in 1999, who sees the sense in owning gold when faith in central banks (or new technology) seems all-pervasive? Right now, it seems like an unnecessary hedge – so sell, Sell, SELL!
That may be the mindset of the speculator, but it's a different story for the physical gold advocate. According to reports, physical gold demand is as strong as ever in India and China. And last months' price plunge led to huge demand from the 'retail' investor all around the world.
So while the 'institutional imperative' (Warren Buffett's reference to the short term pressure that institutions face to 'do something') forces the hand of big money, the small investor takes a longer view. They see a world distorted by cheap money. They see a highly fragile financial system. You don't get a stock market melt-up when the underlying financial foundations are sound. You get this type of price action when there is something very, very wrong with the system and the price signals and incentives it gives off.
On the face of it, it is entirely rational that markets are soaring on the back of unprecedented central bank largesse. And it is rational that speculators see less need for a hedge in such circumstances, and so they sell gold. But we are pretty confident that hindsight will prove this trade to be a very big mistake. And the biggest mistake is that most players think they can get out before everyone else.
The other similarity between now and 1999 is a little more obscure. It relates to the extremely low 'gold forward offered rate' (GOFO) that was prevalent in 1999 and...now. The GOFO is the interest rate one must pay to borrow US Dollars using gold as collateral. Alternatively, it is the interest rate charged by holders of US Dollars to obtain gold short term. The lower the rate, the greater the demand for gold, or the greater amount of Dollars bidding for gold.
Last week the 3-month GOFO dropped to the lowest level since 1999 (when the three month rate actually went into backwardation...a highly unusual situation where the owner of gold gets paid to swap their gold for US Dollars).
So once again, despite (or because of) falling prices, the gold interest rate structure is telling you demand for physical gold remains very strong.
But there is one important difference worth considering. In 1999 market interest rates were much more 'normal' than they are now. A series of recent articles in the Financial Times' Alphaville blog argue that a super low GOFO simply reflects super low rates everywhere. It doesn't signal strong demand for physical gold, but just an attempt by risk adverse institutional money to protect capital in a deflationary environment.
It's a complex argument, and a bit beyond our simple powers of comprehension. Being a simpleton, we tend to think the right interpretation is the simplest one. And the simplest interpretation of gold is that it will protect your wealth in times of severe monetary distortion. Full stop. End of story.
That gold doesn't seem to be doing so now is a product of markets sending wildly false price signals – just as the S&P500 and the Dow Jones are sending a false signal of a US economy in good health. The falling gold price is sending a false signal about the underlying health of the financial system. And tragically, when the majority of investors succumb to this false signal, it will likely turn around warn of the opposite development.
We have no idea when this will happen, but to give your imagination a kick along, we include this comparison of gold's recent performance with the 1970s' bull market (sourced from Jesse's Café American). From 1975-1976, the gold price fell 50%. The yellow line in the chart below represents the latter part of that correction. As you can see, a steep price fall was followed by a rebound, then another fall to new lows.

This last dramatic fall obviously cleared out the last of the weak hands, and set gold up for an explosive move higher in the years to come.
So far, the 2013 move in gold is following the 1976 script. If that continues, expect new lows very soon, followed by a sharp reversal.
Don't bet on it though. History rarely repeats exactly. We offer the comparison only to show that we've been here before. And also to make the comment that if you want to ride a bull market through to the end, you must first endure years of pain...of being 'wrong' and feeling like a fool.
The market is not so much a test of intellectual strength as emotional strength. If you don't have conviction and belief in your position, the market will take you out the back and beat you senseless.
And we're guessing many gold investors are this week wondering when the beatings will stop.

to dk 04:38 GMT May 21, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797



test euro

GVI Forex Blog 03:40 GMT May 21, 2013 Reply   
The Equity markets after having seen such huge run up may go in to a phase

Morning Briefing : 21-May-2013 -0337 GMT

manila tom 02:23 GMT May 21, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:

cheers Qindex, previous support 1.2850 is once again a good one, agree very much re. higher level, i still see 1.2970 and 1.3020 before month's is over, let's roll it, sell usd!

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:32 GMT May 21, 2013
Yen rises on Amari's comments : May 21, 2013
Reply   
Market Review - 20/05/2013 23:02GMT

Yen rises on Amari's comments

The Japanese yen rose against the greenback on Monday after Japan Economy Minister Akira Amari said on Sunday that further losses in the yen would have negative effects on the country's economy. The greenback was pressured throughout the day on expectations that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke would hint to trim its bond purchases this week.

Japan's Amari spoke on a Sunday talk show on NHK and said 'it's being said that the correction of the strong yen is largely completed. If the yen keeps on weakening a lot more, it will have a negative impact on peoples' lives.' He also added that if the weakening of the yen does have a negative impact on living costs, "it's our job to figure out how to minimize that."

Earlier, the greenback opened lower and tumbled briefly but sharply to an intra-day low at 102.00 in New Zealand morning, however, price pared intra-day losses and recovered to 102.92 in Australia. Dollar remained under pressure in Asia and weakened further in European morning before falling to 102.17 in New York afternoon.

Although the single currency came under selling pressure in New Zealand and dropped to session low at 1.2819 at Asian open, price pared intra-day losses and rose to 1.2878 in European morning. Despite a brief pullback to 1.2842 in New York morning, renewed dollar's weakness pushed the pair higher and price climbed to an intra-day high at 1.2901 in New York afternoon.

The British pound also came under selling pressure in New Zealand and dropped to session low at 1.5166 in Australia, however, cable pared intra-day losses and rose in tandem with euro to 1.5219 in European morning. Price continued to trade with a firm undertone and found a fresh wave of buying in New York morning, pushing the pair higher to an intra-day top at 1.5281 in New York afternoon.

In other news, Japan's MoF panel said 'absolutely no guarantee Japan domestic savings will continue to fund JGB purchases; failure to meet budget-cutting promise cud cause spike in interest rates, offset effects of monetary easing; if interest rates rise in deviation fm fundamentals, that wud damage medium, long-term economic growth.'

On the data front, Japan leading indicators rose to 97.9 in March from 97.6 previously. U.S. Chicago Fed index dropped to -0.53 from previous figure of -0.23.

Data to be released on Tuesday :

Japan all industry index, Germany PPI, U.K. PPI, ONS house price, CPI, RPI and U.S. redbook retail sales.

Melbourne Qindex 01:05 GMT May 21, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797




EUR/USD : With good support at 1.2830 - 1.2850, the market should be able to move further up towards the trading ranges at 1.2921 - 1.2940 - 1.2981.


Qindex.com


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Melbourne Qindex 12:05 GMT May 20, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797 : Reply
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:




EURUSD : The market is going to overcome the resistance point at 1.2886.


Qindex.com


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Melbourne Qindex 01:25:19 GMT - 05/18/2013

Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797


The market has fired a warning signal that it is going to reverse its course after hitting the critical point at 1.2797 in the last trading session and EUR/USD was able to close within 1.2814 // 1.2830 this week in the New York session. On this Monday I am expecting the market to tackle 1.2886 in the Asian session.


Qindex.com
EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 00:59 GMT May 21, 2013
USD/JPY : Current Comments

Thank you for your kind words.


Qindex.com

Mtl JP 00:56 GMT May 21, 2013
USD/JPY : Current Comments

Melbourne Qindex 01:25 GMT May 18, 2013
Buy EURUSD
On this Monday I am expecting the market to tackle 1.2886 in the Asian session.


that was a beautiful trade call

Melbourne Qindex 00:26 GMT May 21, 2013
USD/JPY : Current Comments

Buy USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:





USD/JPY : Critical Point 105.296


I am expecting a good two ways traffic between 102.0 - 105.3. In the last two trading days (Friday and Monday) the barriers at 102.027 - 102.064 - 102.163 show a good support from profit taking. The short term upside target is 105.148 and a medium term target is 110.225. A barrier is positioning at 104.448.


Qindex.com


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Melbourne Qindex 08:12 GMT May 10, 2013
USD/JPY : Current Comments : Reply
Buy USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:





USD/JPY : Short term targeting point 103.108



Qindex.com

USD/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 01:28 GMT May 10, 2013
USD/JPY : Current Comments : Reply
USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:

USD/JPY : The current expected trading range is 100.396 // 100.914 - 101.267 - 101.429 // ...


Qindex.com

USD/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 01:13 GMT May 10, 2013
USD/JPY : Current Comments : Reply
USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:





USD/JPY : Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is able to trade above the barrier at 100.935 // 100.982.


Qindex.com

USD/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

USD/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

Syd 00:21 GMT May 21, 2013
US Jobs And A Mistaken Fed Exit
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An improving employment rate that really isn't improving could trigger the Fed to start lifting too early.

LINK

 




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