GVI Forex Inner Circle 21:30 GMT May 23, 2013
Calendar
Reply
May 23, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, May 24.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: DE- IFO Survey, US-Durable Goods
GVI Forex Inner Circle 20:52 GMT May 23, 2013
German IFO data due Friday. Pre-holiday U.S. calendar light
Reply
- HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS: DE- IFO Survey, US- Durable Goods
- As we predicted early Thursday
markets spent the session digesting the short-term implications of the
testimony
by Chairman
Bernanke on Wednesday. Traders have come to the REALIZATION
that the Fed is moving into a transition period for policy. A
policy transition implies that interest rates (read bond yields) will
be moving higher and if the move to fast or too far they could weigh on
stock prices. One fear at the Fed is that this transition could weigh
on the economy and on the pace of jobs growth.
- It is a fear of the "shock
effect" on the market that has Bernanke trying to desensitize the
markets to this change in policy well
before it hits. The transition back to a more "normal" policy
will be gradual and governed by the performance of the economy and
mostly jobs. In terms of trading, expect USD values to be heavily
influenced by stock and bond markets and for stock and bond markets to
be highly sensitive to economic data reports.
- The flash China (HSBC) PMI data
fell
below the key 50 expansion/contraction line, while German and French
data were a touch stronger. The EZ flash PMI was better than expected
but sill below the 50 expansion line..
- U.S. key Weekly Jobless
claims returned to back below 350K in the month. The Markit flash PMI
fell modestly, while New Home Sales were strong.
- The critical German IFO Survey
is due on Friday.
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.3002
|
JGB
0.88% 0bp
|
Asia:Sharply
Weaker
|
USDJPY
100.44
|
Bund
1.44% +2bp
|
Europe
Sharply Weaker
|
EURJPY
130.58
|
U.S.2.02%
-1bp
|
U.S.:Mixed
|
GVI Forex Blog 20:51 GMT May 23, 2013
Reply
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: DE- IFO Survey, US- Durable Goods
As we predicted early Thursday markets spent the session digesting the short-term implications of the testimony by Chairman Bernanke on Wednesday. Traders have come to the REALIZATION that the Fed is moving into a transition period for policy. A policy transition implies that interest rates (read bond yields) will be moving higher and if the move to fast or too far they could weigh on stock prices. One fear at the Fed is that this transition could weigh on the economy and on the pace of jobs growth.
German IFO data due Friday. Pre-holiday U.S. calendar light
Amman wfakhoury 20:19 GMT May 23, 2013
AUDUSD .9770
Reply
Amman wfakhoury 10:51 GMT May 23, 2013
AUDUSD .9770: Reply
0.9770 confirmed ..will be reached
-------------------
Third target 0.9770 reached.
GVI Forex Inner Circle 19:51 GMT May 23, 2013
Chart Points
UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close
data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.
JERUSALEM KB 18:41 GMT May 23, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels
Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:
Gold form strong support ress. , strong sell signal formed below 1418 ress. followed by double bottom on 1hr chart which may put gold in a side way trading between both levels for a short term.
i took 45 trades in 2 trading weeks , 25short & 20 longs result with 33 win and 12loss , 40 scalp(50 to 60 pips) and 5 ends with 250pips+ for each(i shared those five on GV).
london red 17:25 GMT May 23, 2013
+
Reply
eurchf looks to be running out of steam and rolling over intraday. did a nice bounce from lows but recent high was a fibo off big multi year move. long wick on top dailz candle and as long as stays below 1.26, a move to 123-122 possible technically, but first priority to take 10 day ma and then intraday low out.
Hillegom Purk 16:54 GMT May 23, 2013
Aud/usd
Reply
Good day. Today a good day for Ozmond. I rather see it go back to 92 minus for 500 pips up.
Stay tuned...
Cambridge Joe 16:51 GMT May 23, 2013
buy euro
Thanks red, that would appear to bear out the way it looks !
london red 16:49 GMT May 23, 2013
buy euro
Joe, they wont print for various reasons, but since the greece and cyprus incidents have been digested, draghi hasnt missed a chance to talk the euro lower.
Mtl JP 16:44 GMT May 23, 2013
buy euro
Joe I would suggest that market may reward reports of attention to certain issues / progress in them, such as the upcoming yak by Weidmann whose topic is on Crisis and Risk for European Integration. (in about 45 minutes)
Cambridge Joe 16:39 GMT May 23, 2013
buy euro
JP charts appear to suggest that Drahgi has a laxative effect on e/$ . :-)
london red 16:38 GMT May 23, 2013
+
Reply
still 25 mins to go but possible hourly reversal on sp500, stopped at 100 hour ma and just short of 38.2% retracement of yesterdays fall from high/low. if we get a large wick on hour candle, this nervous market might run back to lows.
Mtl JP 16:36 GMT May 23, 2013
buy euro
current euro overhead block 50 day 1.2983
and ... 20 day 1.3006 above that
Mtl JP 16:33 GMT May 23, 2013
buy euro
heads up:
Draghi yaks in London in 3 hrs
on Future of Europe
london red 16:33 GMT May 23, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
high often given as highest price paid ie the offer side, so unless your kiwi spread is a point or less, you won't have got filled unfortunately.
SaR KaL 16:31 GMT May 23, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
red USDCAD...what i got;
i think 1 more week to near 1.06
will start selling next week if above 1.06
london red 16:28 GMT May 23, 2013
buy euro
today market is discounting european yields and potential italy referendum headache. ifo tomorrow morning may refocus attention on europe.
manila 16:25 GMT May 23, 2013
buy euro
Reply
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
euro should reach 1.3020 by month end
london red 16:25 GMT May 23, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
usdcad coming up to hourly 100 ma just under 1.03, has supported trend since test of parity just over a week ago. if cracked can take us to 10260. market is overbought on the dailies but that has never stopped a trending market, so can go either way.
HK Kevin 16:15 GMT May 23, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
NZD sell order at 0.8170. I see high at NetDania is 0.8171, but my broker said it was not filled.
SaR KaL 16:01 GMT May 23, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
waaass up Joe?
thanks man!!
USDCAD Buy Mode on from 1.0300 to 1.0277
GVI Forex Inner Circle 15:40 GMT May 23, 2013
Fixed Income
Major bond market prices mixed. Peripheral prices are lower.
Amman wfakhoury 15:34 GMT May 23, 2013
GBPUSD 1.5099
Reply
Amman wfakhoury 10:49 GMT May 23, 2013
GBPUSD 1.5099: Reply
1.5099 confirmed ..will be reached
-------------
second target 15099 reached
GVI Forex Blog 15:13 GMT May 23, 2013
Reply
May 23, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, May 24. Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: DE- IFO Survey, US-Durable Goods.
GVI Forex Data Outlook for 24 May 2013
GVI Forex Inner Circle 15:11 GMT May 23, 2013
Calendar
Reply
May 23, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, May 24.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: DE- IFO Survey, US-Durable Goods.
ed kw 14:34 GMT May 23, 2013
Sell JPY
The question remains: When Will Hedge Funds and FX Traders Close their Short Yen Positions? We think with the arrival of stronger Japanese data, they will. We judge that Japan might be the G7 country with the strongest growth in 2013.On the other side inflation will be clearly lower than 2%. Therefore it is time to short USD/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY.
Read more at: http://snbchf.com/2013/03/when-hedge-funds-close-their-short-yen/ - SNB & CHF
http://snbchf.com/2013/03/when-hedge-funds-close-their-short-yen/
GVI Forex Inner Circle 14:14 GMT May 23, 2013
United States
HEADS-UP: Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update)
Natural Gas: 4.1790
WTI: 92.28
GVI Forex Inner Circle 14:08 GMT May 23, 2013
United States
New Homes Sales, Starts and Permits. New Homes Sales just released and stronger than forecast.
GVI Forex Inner Circle 14:02 GMT May 23, 2013
United States
good new homes sales number. It confirms what we have been hearing anecdotally.
GVI Forex Inner Circle 13:42 GMT May 23, 2013
United States
HEADS-UP: Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update)
EURUSD= 1.2908
GBPUSD= 1.5075
USDJPY= 101.62
AUDUSD= 0.9718
USDCAD= 1.0335
Direct links to primary data sources
GVI Forex Inner Circle 13:01 GMT May 23, 2013
United States
U.S. flash Markit (not ISM) Mfg PMI a touch weaker mo/mo.
GVI Forex Inner Circle 12:52 GMT May 23, 2013
United States
HEADS-UP: Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update)
EURUSD= 1.2905
GBPUSD= 1.5068
USDJPY= 101.60
AUDUSD= 0.9702
USDCAD= 1.0344
Direct links to primary data sources
HK RF@ 12:44 GMT May 23, 2013
The point is not any US data.
Reply
But the burst-start of the Japanese bubble.
What happened today in Japan should raise the battle cry of the small investor:"Let me out of here NOWWWW!!!"
US Data is a fool's comfort, just to distract the investors of the real problem!!! BUBBLES BUBBLES UNJUSTIFIES INFLATED MARKET LEVELS.
Ben and his surrogates will try to stabilize, but maybe people are getting tired of this dangerous BUBBLESH!T and leave.
Take off any profit from the table and run for your lives.
hk ab 12:43 GMT May 23, 2013
United States
If that's the case, let's speed up the crash of all the indices then.
GVI Forex Inner Circle 12:40 GMT May 23, 2013
United States
Not a barn-burner, but the data keep the possibility of an earlier Fed tapering alive.
GVI Forex Inner Circle 12:36 GMT May 23, 2013
United States
U.S. Weekly jobless claims back below the key 350K line. New recent low for continued claims. Recall benefits eventually run out.
Click on chart for ten-year history
london red 12:34 GMT May 23, 2013
United States
Imo a market calming number. Not too strong to talk about tapering, but strong enough to suggest economy stumbles along at 2/2.5%. Should be dollar positive, stocks shouldnt crumble either once hit 1630
Amman wfakhoury 12:22 GMT May 23, 2013
EURUSD 1.2910
Reply
Amman wfakhoury 10:50 GMT May 23, 2013
EURUSD 1.2910: Reply
1.2910 confirmed ..will be reached.
-----------------
first target 12910 reached.
ed kw 12:09 GMT May 23, 2013
Traders Wanted?Traders Needed
In any risk off market there comes a time when higher bond yields encourage buying in the underlying currency //BNN reported that higher bonds can be not a flight to usd
london red 12:07 GMT May 23, 2013
Traders Wanted?Traders Needed
Yes it can be/is misleading but market is edgy and will sell/buy first, ask questions later, hence the possible flip in trend after initial move.
GVI Forex Inner Circle 12:03 GMT May 23, 2013
Traders Wanted?Traders Needed
red - I agree 100% and have been using +/- 350 in initial jobless claims as my benchmark level of economic strength or weakness. Of course this tends to be a volatile series so it could be misleading to focus too heavily on any given report.
london red 11:48 GMT May 23, 2013
Traders Wanted?Traders Needed
Coming up us jobless claims. This number is most important today and will most certainly drive the initial new york session move. I say initial as a strong number will almost certainly result in a dollar drive higher but the stockmarket may in time drive the dollar back down against the yen and swiss franc. In any risk off market there comes a time when higher bond yields encourage buying in the underlying currency so this can flip the dollar back up at some stage if lower.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:30 GMT May 23, 2013
Traders Wanted?Traders Needed
Reply
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Melbourne Qindex 11:18 GMT May 23, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
EUR/USD : The bias is on the upside when the market is above 1.2876. Speculative buying interest will increase when EUR/USD is trading above 1.2900 // 1.2904. The odds are in favor of maintaining a long position when the market momentum is strong enough to overcome the resistance at 1.2999.
Qindex.com
EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts
GVI Forex Inner Circle 11:15 GMT May 23, 2013
FED
Reply
Fed's Bullard: Not Considering Implementing Any of Exit Steps
SaR KaL 10:54 GMT May 23, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
"No Comments"..LOL
EURUSD short from 1.2957
for 1.24 tgt
Amman wfakhoury 10:51 GMT May 23, 2013
AUDUSD .9770
Reply
0.9770 confirmed ..will be reached
Amman wfakhoury 10:50 GMT May 23, 2013
EURUSD 1.2910
Reply
1.2910 confirmed ..will be reached.
Amman wfakhoury 10:49 GMT May 23, 2013
GBPUSD 1.5099
Reply
1.5099 confirmed ..will be reached
SaR KaL 09:47 GMT May 23, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
cadchf
bullish
longs
0.9296
0.9325
accumaltion
for .98 in 2 weeks
Cambridge Joe 09:47 GMT May 23, 2013
EURUSD
Reply
May crash and burn, but I'm attempting a small e/$ short scalp here .2891 entry.
SaR KaL 09:40 GMT May 23, 2013
Sell JPY
Kwun
too risky
i am very long usdjpy now
Central Kwun 09:23 GMT May 23, 2013
Sell JPY
Reply
Sell USDJPY
Entry: 101.3 Target: Stop: 99
can back below 100?
ed kw 09:21 GMT May 23, 2013
u/j
Reply
ed kw 20:36 GMT May 16, 2013
u/j forecast : Reply
ed kw 22:06 GMT May 12, 2013 Reply
Analysis of the monthly chart reveals two major trend lines that lie at 108.66 and 112.27. This creates a powerful area of resistance. The long-term fair value chart shows that the beginnings of a long period of sideways price movement lurks just above par at 100.48. This level is significant as it is what I call a "Bull Trap." Traders see the break above a key technical level at par and think a new, higher leg is developing, only for price to reverse sharply. A close above 102.00 would then target the 112.12 distribution lows, and potentially the fair value from the 2001 highs at 117.96. Key support is at Friday's low at 0.9822.
london red 09:20 GMT May 23, 2013
cad
its certainly overbought, right on upper daily bollinger.
Cambridge Joe 09:18 GMT May 23, 2013
cad
red my hourly suggest usdcad has much more South side to offer... over days. IMO.
ed kw 09:15 GMT May 23, 2013
cad
BNN did call 1.05 av for xsports to chin_a aren't strong ap 30 days old
Cambridge Joe 09:14 GMT May 23, 2013
USDCAD
Cambridge Joe 06:44 GMT May 23, 2013
USDCAD: Reply
USDCAD softer here IMO. GL
#########
closed 1/3. sl to entry.
london red 09:11 GMT May 23, 2013
cad
Reply
10343 was big res now big support, below then risks return to trendline. anything below 10250 suggests a reversal.
Amman wfakhoury 09:03 GMT May 23, 2013
GOLD 1391.50
Reply
Amman wfakhoury 07:33 GMT May 23, 2013
GOLD 1391.50: Reply
Eyes on 1391.50
--------------
1391.50 reached
hk ab 08:54 GMT May 23, 2013
e/j
Reply
it's called e/j - gold inverse relationship.
hk ab 08:53 GMT May 23, 2013
eur/jpy
Reply
I think we are repeating the "mistake" made in 1995 and 2001 version but this time on eur/jpy.....
How deep can eur/jpy go? no one knows......
Maybe 110-115?
GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:41 GMT May 23, 2013
Markets digesting Bernanke. PMI data are mixed.
Reply
- HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS: EZ- Consumer Confidence. GB- GDP, US- Weekly Jobs,
flash Markit PMI,
New Homes Sales
- As markets have adjusted to
testimony
by Chairman
Bernanke comments yesterday, the focus has shifted to the REALIZATION
that we are moving into a transition period for Fed policy. This
realization has seen bond and equity prices fall.
- The bottom line message from
Bernanke was that Fed bond purchases are not going to last forever. On
the other hand, the transition back to a more "normal" policy is going
to be gradual and governed by the performance of the economy and more
specifically the jobs markets.
- A slew of flash PMI reports for
May are due on Thursday. Flash China (HSBC) PMI data fell below the key
50 expansion/contraction line, while German and French data were a
touch stronger.
- U.S. key Weekly Jobless claims,
the Markit flash PMI and New Home Sales are awaited today.
- The critical German IFO Survey
is due on Friday.
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.3006
|
JGB
0.88% 0bp
|
Asia:Sharply
Weaker
|
USDJPY
100.31
|
Bund
1.40% -2bp
|
Europe
Weaker
|
EURJPY
130.45
|
U.S.2.00%
-3bp
|
U.S.:Weaker
|
GVI Forex Blog 08:39 GMT May 23, 2013
Reply
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: EZ- Consumer Confidence. GB- GDP, US- Weekly Jobs, flash Markit PMI, New Homes Sales
As markets have adjusted to testimony by Chairman Bernanke comments yesterday, the focus has shifted to the REALIZATION that we are moving into a transition period for Fed policy. This realization has seen bond and equity prices fall.
Markets digesting Bernanke. PMI data are mixed.
london red 08:38 GMT May 23, 2013
yen
Reply
yen stops short of 23.6% retracement (100,73) of move from feb13 low. if revisited and taken, would suggest correction much deeper below 100.
Cambridge Joe 08:37 GMT May 23, 2013
Cable
Cambridge Joe 06:33 GMT May 23, 2013
Cable: Reply
Buying Cable abt half an hour from here
###
Profit taking abt 10 mins out. Softr for a time. (down) late resumes upwsing.IMO.GL
GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:34 GMT May 23, 2013
United Kingdom
U.K. 1Q13 preliminary GDP unrevised. A mild disappointment.
GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:31 GMT May 23, 2013
United Kingdom
Overall UK GDP data unchanged. Mild disappointment for some.
GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:08 GMT May 23, 2013
Eurozone
EZ Services PMI better expected, Still sub-50.
GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:07 GMT May 23, 2013
Eurozone
EZ Mfg PMI better than expected. Still sub-50.
GVI Forex Inner Circle 07:33 GMT May 23, 2013
Germany
Mixed German PMI data as well but on balance a touch better as in the case of France. EURUSD is higher.
Amman wfakhoury 07:30 GMT May 23, 2013
AUD
Reply
Syd 07:23 GMT May 23, 2013
Aud: Reply
About 2,500 jobs are under threat
--------------
Do you have their names ?
dc CB 07:05 GMT May 23, 2013
Fixed Income
Smoke em if you got em
GVI Forex Inner Circle 07:04 GMT May 23, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply
Prices in prime fixed income market mixed. Some catch -up from Wednesday Peripherals weaker.
Syd 06:58 GMT May 23, 2013
Source TradeTheNews.com
Reply
(JP) Japan Econ Min Amari to hold press conference at 04:00 ET (08:00 GMT) - Source TradeTheNews.com
Cambridge Joe 06:44 GMT May 23, 2013
USDCAD
Reply
USDCAD softer here IMO. GL
Syd 06:36 GMT May 23, 2013
Aud Source TradeTheNews.com
Reply
AU) Foreign investors may start to pull out of Australian real estate assets if AUD continues to fall - AFR - Source TradeTheNews.com
dc CB 06:36 GMT May 23, 2013
United States
THE NAME OF THE GAME...tis Joined...and it's not personal...it's just the current game
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Israel Dil 18:28 GMT May 22, 2013
SELL EVERYTHING
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111
dc CB 01:22 GMT May 23, 2013
United States: Reply
continuing with POMO After the 3 day Weekend
Tues $1.25 - $1.75 billion
Wed $2.75 - $3.50 billion
Thurs $1.25 - $1.75 billion
Fri to End the New Highs Month $4.25 - $5.25 billion
If Stox sell off in the face of this? Which would include the 20th in a Row Up Tuesday(if it does occur...it will)
Cambridge Joe 06:33 GMT May 23, 2013
Cable
Reply
Buying Cable abt half an hour from here
Singapore SGFXTrader 06:29 GMT May 23, 2013
Massive selloffs in AUDJPY
Yeah, AUDUSD touch 0.9607 just now. Every market is doing a mad sell into AUD. I reckon that there might have a mini-AUD ejaculation soon.
Haifa ac 06:22 GMT May 23, 2013 - My Profile
Massive selloffs in AUDJPY: Reply
Sorry. THat was reference to AUD/USD, not the yen spread.
london red 06:21 GMT May 23, 2013
JPY
Jpy safe haven effect during risk off. Also its a smaller point but during last week of available data japanese investors completely reversed 3 weeks of foreign bond buying and became net sellers.
Haifa ac 06:20 GMT May 23, 2013
Massive selloffs in AUDJPY
95.80--2012 low should provide temporary support. we are practically there.
dc CB 06:18 GMT May 23, 2013
United States
one way to get the 10Y yield back down below 2%
Cut their f*&king throats
Oh excuse me it's just Justice where Pirates(Terrorists) are concerned. Specutlator HedgeFunds Shites.
Haifa ac 06:08 GMT May 23, 2013
JPY
"any news for JPY rise? nikki is dropping 5%"
yes
They discovered Gravity.
Central Kwun 05:42 GMT May 23, 2013
JPY
Reply
USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:
any news for JPY rise? nikki is dropping 5%
SaR KaL 05:24 GMT May 23, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
changed eurusd tgt to 1.24
cable will short above 1.51 tgt 1.47
SaR KaL 05:08 GMT May 23, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
gbpchf is good buy around 1.4650 to 1.4620
for 1.50 tgt
SaR KaL 05:00 GMT May 23, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
Kw/
AUDJPY now bullish for next week
from 97 and lower seems ok for 101 area
nzdjpy will still short above 83 this week
for tgt 81
bullish from 81 into next week to possible 84
reall bullish is gbpjpy (Here) and eurjpy (<131)
USDJPY will buy 102.2 to 102 for 108 tgt
Blore RKG 04:42 GMT May 23, 2013
Japan
Reply
For all Abenomics fans, this would serve as a caution.. a very nice presentation in terms of content and logic
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/05/must-watch-christine-hughes-of.html
ed kw 04:29 GMT May 23, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
nikkei is still looking for support its following the s/p pos see where support is get a good entory
Sydney ACC 04:06 GMT May 23, 2013
Aud
Just like old times.
Central banks great investors diversifying out of USD into and at:
Gold - USD 1,600
AUD - USD 1.05
EUR - USD 1.45
ed kw 04:01 GMT May 23, 2013
Aud
aud/usd monthly chart indicates a lot of stops under .9500 can send aud to a herded rush for the small door
Syd 03:11 GMT May 23, 2013
Aud
Reply
AMP Capital Revises End-2013 Australian Dollar Forecast to US$0.95 from US$1.00
Westpac sees further declines in NZD/USD, AUD/USD
NZD/USD, AUD/USD are likely to see further fallout during the session from Bernanke's remarks about potentially tapering QE, says Westpac currency strategist Imre Speizer. And with Fed policy being data-dependent, there's extra onus on incoming US data, which includes jobless claims and manufacturing gauges on deck. NZD/USD last at 0.8077 vs. 0.8155 late Wednesday. Speizer says fallout from Bernanke could take the pair below 0.8060. AUD/USD last at 0.9701 vs. 0.9780 late Wednesday in Sydney. Speizer sees pair to break below 0.9660.
Syd 03:05 GMT May 23, 2013
HEARD ON THE STREET: China's Not Hiring
Reply
China's labor market has been a bright spot amid economic gloom. Strong jobs data over the past year has helped offset concerns about slowing growth. But there are signs employment is beginning to weaken too.
The official job numbers in China are irregular and, in some cases, inaccurate. But other sources of data fill in the blanks. For instance, the number of new jobs advertised on leading recruitment website Zhaopin.com fell sharply in April. With the first-quarter peak hiring season, some falling off in April is expected. But a 22% drop in new job postings from the previous month was the steepest decline since Zhaopin started collecting data in 2010.
Business surveys suggest the downturn is broad-based across manufacturing and services too. The preliminary reading for the HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index in May showed factories trimming their workforce for a second month. Worryingly, the HSBC Markit services PMI also points to job losses.
If labor markets are turning down, they are at least doing so from a position of strength. China's private sector wages rose 14% in real terms in 2012, according the National Bureau of Statistics. Demand for workers outstripped supply by a record amount in the first quarter. The drop in new job adverts on Zhaopin came after a record high in March.
Demographic shifts means there is less need to create jobs. China's workforce is ageing and shrinking. But strong labor markets are still critically important for Beijing. Low unemployment and rising wages are the basis of social stability. Strong employment is also a crucial precondition for rebalancing the economy so that households are a bigger driver of growth. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics this week showed that process has stalled, with the private consumption share of gross domestic product flat at 35.7% in 2012.
For now, the job indicators are flashing amber rather than red. Premier Li Keqiang has signaled that there is little scope for a stimulus. But if hiring continues to deteriorate, leaders will find it difficult to turn off the lending taps.
Dillon AL 03:04 GMT May 23, 2013
Aud
Is that a typo 2014....2013??
Syd 02:50 GMT May 23, 2013
Aud
Reply
AMP Capital Says Australian Dollar Likely at US$0.90 by End-2014
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:08 GMT May 23, 2013
Dollar rallies broadly on Bernanke's hawkish comments : May 23, 2013
Reply
Market Review - 22/05/2013 23:02GMT
Dollar rallies broadly on Bernanke's hawkish comments
The greenback surged against majority of its peers on Wednesday after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at possibilities of the central bank slowing its bond purchases. Initially, dollar briefly dropped across the board after Bernanke said monetary stimulus is helping the U.S. economy recovery.
Fed's Bernanke testified on Capitol Hill and said 'U.S. monetary policy providing significant benefits, premature tightening would carry substantial risk; Fed will gradually reduce the flow of asset purchases if labor market improves in a real and sustainable way; Fed paying close attention to risk of financial instability; risks of financial instability does factor in to Fed thinking on the appropriate amount of monetary stimulus and exit strategy.'
Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback rebounded to 102.65 at Asian open, price retreated to 102.35. However, dollar found renewed buying there and strengthened throughout European session after BoJ Governor Kuroda said he will maintain his loose monetary policy and rose to 103.18 at New York open. Despite brief pullback to 102.68 after Bernanke's initial comments, dollar rallied above last Friday's 103.32 high to a fresh 4-1/2 year high at 103.74 on dollar's broad-based strength.
Later, price pared intra-day gains and fell sharply to 102.73 in New York afternoon as minutes from the Fed's latest FOMC meeting showed policymakers were waiting for progress in labor market before altering the pace of their bond buying.
Although the single currency remained under pressure in Asia and retreated to 1.2904 at European open, price rose again in European morning and gained to 1.2959 in New York morning ahead of Bernanke's testimony in Congress. Despite a brief but sharp rise to an intra-day high at 1.2998 immediately after Bernanke's initial comments, euro swiftly pared intra-day gains and tanked after the chairman hinted at possibilities of the Fed slowing the pace of its bond purchases. Price eventually slumped to an session low of 1.2834 in New York afternoon.
The British pound remained under pressure in Asia and resumed recent decline to 1.5075 in European morning after a government report showed U.K. retail sales unexpectedly declined and as minutes of the Bank of England showed Governor Mervyn King was defeated for a fourth month in his bid to expand bond buying. Cable also rebounded swiftly to 1.5157 in New York morning before tumbling to a 7-week low at 1.5020 at New York midday before stabilising.
BoE minutes stated 'QE in May would have surprised markets, some members feared it could have created doubts about commitment to price stability; for others, case for more QE based on labour market slack, risk that euro zone weakness could push up sterling.'
U.K. April retail sales came in at -1.3% m/m 0.5% y/y versus forecasts of 0.0% n 2.0% respectively.
In other news, Fed's FOMC minutes stated ''many Fed participants felt continued labor market gains, more confidence in outlook, diminished risks needed b4 slowing bond buying; a number of participants expressed willingness to reduce pace of bond buying as early as June if economic growth strong, sustained; most participants emphasized importance of being prepared to adjust bond purchases up or down depending on incoming data.'
Data to be released on Thursday :
China HSCB flash manufacturing PMI, France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, services PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, services PMI, UK retail sales, GDP, U.S. jobless claims, manufacturing PMI, house price index and new home sales.
GVI Forex 01:48 GMT May 23, 2013
China
Reply
HSBC CHINA MAY FLASH PMI 49.6 VS APR FINAL 50.4
dc CB 01:22 GMT May 23, 2013
United States
continuing with POMO After the 3 day Weekend
Tues $1.25 - $1.75 billion
Wed $2.75 - $3.50 billion
Thurs $1.25 - $1.75 billion
Fri to End the New Highs Month $4.25 - $5.25 billion
If Stox sell off in the face of this? Which would include the 20th in a Row Up Tuesday(if it does occur...it will)
dc CB 01:15 GMT May 23, 2013
FOMC minutes takeaway
Whenever any market experiences a daily price greater than the high of the previous period�s price and a low below the low of the previous period�you�ve got an outside day or reversal. But this ain�t your daddy�s stock market anymore my friend.
First, Bernanke�s congressional testimony was critical to an early rally given his assertion to maintain QE at current levels. But, he also suggested concerns about how markets would react should QE be tapered or (gasp!) removed.
Fed Minutes were released which noted various Fed governors wanting to halt QE in June and that certain �financial markets were becoming too buoyant�. BOOM! Stocks reversed. Is there a �Mutiny on the QE Bounty?
The hint of a halt to QE from the Fed Minutes trumped Bernanke�s QEinity congressional testimony.
You can be sure all this will be walked back Thursday. After all, Jobless Claims may beat, PMI Flash Mfg Index, Home Price Index and New Home Sales could bring the bulls quickly back to the fore.
Let�s see what happens.
A REVERSAL DAY FOR MARKETS
UK Percy 00:32 GMT May 23, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797
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many more chart points
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