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Forex Forum Archive for 05/24/2013

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Cambridge Joe 20:42 GMT May 24, 2013
AUDUSD flagging a structural shift of direction. Getting around 12:00 GMT in the new week.


Cambridge Joe 20:37 GMT May 24, 2013
USDCAD firms into the new week. IMO. GL

HK RF@ 20:26 GMT May 24, 2013

Propping up the Dow today starts looking pathetic.

Will cause more damage/worries than confidence among serious investors.
So no surprise if next week Nikkei will start the week with additional drops.

Exodus B4 ruins!!!

The safest temporary alternative investment: Place your money in savings account with 0% interest:)

GVI Forex Inner Circle 20:07 GMT May 24, 2013
Chart Points

UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.

GVI Forex Inner Circle 19:45 GMT May 24, 2013
Commitment of Traders Report
COT EUR vs. USD Positions. In week ending Tuesday, EURUSD Longs down and shorts up. Market shorter EUR.

COT NET EUR Positions. In week ending Tuesday,

COT JPY vs USD Positions. In week ended Tuesday, JPY shorts down modestly and longs down slightly. Market shorter JPY.

COT NET JPY vs. USD Positions. In the week ended Tuesday.

Porto Cubriclas 19:22 GMT May 24, 2013
Hi FM.
Do you have an opinion about audnzd for next couple months?
TIA and nice weekend. ;)

ed kw 18:18 GMT May 24, 2013

swiss pairs more to this

london red 18:16 GMT May 24, 2013

weekly reversal now looks certain with close under low. next week should be another week of forced profit taking. will look to sell 102/102,60 next week

Lahore FM 18:12 GMT May 24, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Entry: Target: Stop:

short term bottom in place imo!

GVI Forex Inner Circle 18:11 GMT May 24, 2013
Stops at 100.80 in USDJPY triggered.

ed kw 18:10 GMT May 24, 2013
there is already a wodwaky hear

ed kw 18:08 GMT May 24, 2013
your system call yen free fall nada

ed kw 18:06 GMT May 24, 2013
i will need automated system when im i a pine boxxx

GVI Forex Inner Circle 18:06 GMT May 24, 2013

We are tolerating you but please keep to one identity. (Alaska et al)

ed kw 18:03 GMT May 24, 2013
go back to fishing or call a trade so yen is free falling

JERUSALEM kb 16:28 GMT May 24, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels

Entry: Target: Stop:

I prefer to delay the sell stop order for next week and will be updated

ed kw 15:53 GMT May 24, 2013

aud/yen 9764 next chop zone 97.50 to 95.00

GVI Forex Inner Circle 15:40 GMT May 24, 2013
Fixed Income

Prices in prime fixed income markets mostly higher late in Europe. Prices lower in periphery.

ed kw 15:30 GMT May 24, 2013

chf/jpy under 105 can start yen free fall

ed kw 15:26 GMT May 24, 2013

gold and s/p are to quiet so pik on yen day

ed kw 15:20 GMT May 24, 2013

gbp/usd is getting the floes //e/chf busted /u/chf to //flight to safety for weekend nikkei looks busted

ed kw 15:14 GMT May 24, 2013
We still could see a little more selling of the US Dollar in the sessions ahead, but these declines will continue to be very well supported. Look no further than AUD/USD and NZD/USD to understand that there has been a major change in antipodean sentiment. Aussie and Kiwi used to sell off against the US Dollar and rally back even harder, and now we are seeing the materialization of a contrasting dynamic.

divergence to this post

london red 15:10 GMT May 24, 2013

derivatives market suggests a bounce for aussie and with usdjpy at lows for week, early next week audjpy could snap back so would watch out if selling here. longer term i agree there is a case for short aud vs a host of currencies. futures positioning later will give us a further indication.

ed kw 15:04 GMT May 24, 2013

yen pairs are suitable shorts aud/yen under pressure

london red 14:59 GMT May 24, 2013

close below last weeks low would be bearish, but think 102,30/60 would be a good level to sell into as its sure to trade some of this weeks range.

SaR KaL 14:46 GMT May 24, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

IMO GBPJPY wants 215 by Jan 2014

eurcad wants 1.25
just watch it over the this week and next
will slowly turn

USDJPY Getting 147 tgt

HK Kevin 14:26 GMT May 24, 2013
Look like sharks is around to clean up USD/JPY long. Cancel my short order at 102.60.

GVI Forex Blog 13:52 GMT May 24, 2013 Reply   
May 24, 2013 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, May 27. Updated: Trading Events Calendar HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: GB/US- Holidays

GVI Forex Data Outlook for 27 May 2013

GVI Forex Inner Circle 13:51 GMT May 24, 2013

May 24, 2013 ( UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, May 27. Updated: Trading Events Calendar


SaR KaL 13:18 GMT May 24, 2013
United States

0.8677 0.8476
for lower then .8350


SaR KaL 13:15 GMT May 24, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

still longing

1.4701 1.4472


ed kw 12:40 GMT May 24, 2013
United States

eur/gbp reversal

ed kw 12:38 GMT May 24, 2013
United States

u/y i did hear that exporters hedged at 98

ed kw 12:34 GMT May 24, 2013
United States

bloom its not good news mostly aircraft orders ,some gov,poss drop GDP a bit

london red 12:34 GMT May 24, 2013
United States

interesting to see, initially at least, stocks treating good news as bad. dollar popped higher but not yet following thru on yen

GVI Forex Inner Circle 12:33 GMT May 24, 2013
United States

Durable Goods better than expected. This series tends to be volatile because it includes a number of big ticket items.

GVI Forex Inner Circle 12:31 GMT May 24, 2013
United States

-- ALERT --
U.S. Durable Goods Orders April 2013
Headline: +3.3% vs. +1.70% exp. vs. -5.80% (r. -5.90%)prev.
x-Tran:+1.3% vs. +0.0% exp. vs. -1.4% (r. -1.7%) prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

ed kw 12:23 GMT May 24, 2013
United States

is us loong weekend

london red 12:18 GMT May 24, 2013
watch yen 101,25. last weeks low. with it being end of week, weak longs may just throw in the towel. if so target around 100. does look sticky and risk has taken a hit this week, but risk reward better at high levels if seen, as still packs the biggest punch.
eurchf making some headway to downside, but need to make a lower low. if does hourly reversal here, think shorts covered and try again higher up.

GVI Forex Inner Circle 12:16 GMT May 24, 2013
United States

HEADS-UP: Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update
EURUSD= 1.2939
GBPUSD= 1.5098
USDJPY= 101.42
AUDUSD= 0.9693
USDCAD= 1.0331

Direct links to primary data sources

Mtl JP 12:01 GMT May 24, 2013
Fixed Income

when the JGB cost the Japan treasury approx 0.57%, the Economist had a piece claiming that "At over {Yen}1,000 trillion, the sheer size of the debt weighs ever more heavily. The cost of servicing it eats up over half of tax revenues".

GVI Forex Inner Circle 11:22 GMT May 24, 2013
Fixed Income

Japanese 10-yr JGBs. BOJ trying to bang rates lower.

beijing kaprikon 11:05 GMT May 24, 2013
EUR/USD at critical Resistance @ 1.30

Entry: Target: Stop:

This is my view on the EURUSD Daily chart:

Following the better than expected IFO data the EURUSD surged to an intraday High 1.2992, just shy of Wednesday�s Ben Bernanke induced whipsaw High 1.2997. While that sparked a lot of EUR buying against the USD and on the other EUR crosses the overall USD strength is still present as the GBPUSD and AUD USD lagged that counter trend move.

Technically the EURUSD is running into a very solid layer of Resistance: the 50-Day MVA is right at 1.2980 and above it is the 20-Day MVA at 1.30 which would be a tough level to break. The move up would be only confirmed by a close above 1.3040-50 which a more important level based on the previous chart points.

While my view is biased towards a down trend continuation there is a counter argument based on the turning Momentum represented by the buy signal generated by the Stochastic Oscillator and the fact that the recent Low around 1.28 is actually higher than the previous Lows around 1.2750 made in the start of March.

Constellation1976 - EUR/USD at critical Resistance

GVI Forex 10:06 GMT May 24, 2013
Global Markets News
Euro was at session highs after better German IFO data beat expectations which caused several analysts revise earlier calls for another ECB rate cut. The pair tested 1.2990 before retracing its gains. The pair was at 1.2960 just ahead of the NY morning. EU Market Update: Core European data sooths risk aversion concerns and trims calls for more ECB rate cuts; German IGO sees significant improvement in Q2 GDP

GVI Forex Inner Circle 09:07 GMT May 24, 2013
Chart Points

GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:54 GMT May 24, 2013
German IFO data due Friday. Pre-holiday U.S. calendar light

  • HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Durable Goods
  • The critical German IFO Survey came in stronger than predicted for May and has given the EURUSD a lift. It might be that the data are flattening (Chart on Forex forum).
  •  There is no reason why markets Friday should not spend a pre-holiday session continuing to digest the short-term implications of the testimony by Chairman Bernanke on Wednesday. Traders have come to the  REALIZATION that the Fed is moving into a transition period for policy.  A policy transition implies that interest rates (read bond yields) will be moving higher and if the move to fast or too far they could weigh on stock prices. One fear at the Fed is that this transition could weigh on the economy and on the pace of jobs growth.
  • It is a fear of the "shock effect" on the market that has Bernanke trying to desensitize the markets to this change in policy well before it  hits. The transition back to a more "normal" policy will be gradual and governed by the performance of the economy and mostly  jobs. In terms of trading, expect USD values to be heavily influenced by stock and bond markets and for stock and bond markets to be highly sensitive to economic data reports.
  • U.S. Durable Goods orders for April  today are seen better vs. March. This tends to be a volatile data survey.
20d avg
EURUSD 1.3002
JGB 0.83% -2bp
Asia Close Mixed
USDJPY 100.44
Bund 1.46% +2bp
Europe Currently Higher
EURJPY 130.58
U.S.2.01%  -1bp
U.S Pre-Open.:Mixed

GVI Forex Blog 08:53 GMT May 24, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: US- Durable Goods The critical German IFO Survey came in stronger than predicted for May and has given the EURUSD a lift. It might be that the data are flattening (Chart on Forex forum).

German IFO data due Friday. Pre-holiday U.S. calendar light

london red 08:11 GMT May 24, 2013

think 1.06 longer term is possible on cad while above 10260. but if struggles at 10370/80 today then might be some profit taking on it back to 100 hour and trendline which are just about together c. 1.03

GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:05 GMT May 24, 2013

German May Ifo data better than expected. Data flattening out?. EURUSD higher.

london red 08:04 GMT May 24, 2013

may expectations puts a slight dampner on otherwise better than expected print, but should keep the euro bid until the afternoon session

tokyo ginko 08:03 GMT May 24, 2013

for those who are not sure about eur/usd

do usd/cad for target 1.0470/80

manila tom 08:01 GMT May 24, 2013

Entry: Target: Stop:

good ifo, euro should bias upwards today, buy dips

tokyo ginko 08:01 GMT May 24, 2013

short eur/usd 1.2955 for target below 1.28..

GL GT all!

GVI Forex Inner Circle 08:00 GMT May 24, 2013

-- ALERT --
DE IFO Survey May 2013
Climate: 105.7 vs. 104.4 exp. vs. 104.4 prev.
Conditions:110.0 vs. 107.2 exp. vs. 107.2 prev.
Expectations: 101.6 vs. 101.6 exp. vs. 101.8 prev.

TTN: Live News Special Offer

Direct links to primary data sources

london red 07:57 GMT May 24, 2013
german ifo soon, euro near term supp at 10 day ma at todays low. if number doesnt disappoint then pair looks like its going to make further headway towards 1.30. risk isnt market isnt that short so no real stops to take while below 200 day ma

GVI Forex Inner Circle 07:52 GMT May 24, 2013

HEADS-UP: IFO Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update
EURUSD= 1.2925
GBPUSD= 1.5085
USDJPY= 101.59
AUDUSD= 0.9670
USDCAD= 1.0341

Direct links to primary data sources

GVI Forex Inner Circle 07:51 GMT May 24, 2013
Fixed Income
Prices in prime fixed income market mostly higher. Peripherals steady.

Syd 07:46 GMT May 24, 2013
(UK) BOE's Fisher: BoE must continue to support the economy; another rate cut would probably not boost demand- Higher bank capital should not restrict lending. - Growth in productivity should help control inflation. - Fiscal tightening will continue to weigh on output - Negative rates would not necessarily do much to boost growth at the moment, might even be perverse - Source

SaR KaL 07:19 GMT May 24, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level

NZDCAD Shorts here at 0.8378 tgt 0.7820 in a month

this a separate account

Israel Dil 06:27 GMT May 24, 2013
buy gold the coming two weeks and take three months long holiday. Can't see gold going sub 1200$ the coming three months but well seeing gold as rising above 1700$ this summer.

bye :-)

Israel Dil 06:23 GMT May 24, 2013
sell everything

all financial instruments will top early next week to take the sort of an amazing dive that happens once in long time.

loads of day trading blood is about to appear soon, very soon.

Syd 06:09 GMT May 24, 2013
Tony Abbott budget reply 'the best in decades', says Peter Costello
PETER Costello, the Liberal treasurer who featured in a Labor Party attack ad during the last election campaign accusing Tony Abbott of being an economic illiterate, will tonight praise the Opposition Leader's budget reply speech as "the best in decades".

"It shows that the Coalition understands the dimension of the task ahead and is ready to rescue the situation."

ed kw 05:57 GMT May 24, 2013
every traders failure
ETFs were slammed from Nikkei carry trade selloff but BN reports that big funds were flat so mom & pop whent to the cleaners agan

Syd 05:39 GMT May 24, 2013
- Source
(GR) Troika telling domestic commercial banks to sell off their non-banking activities in Greece and their subsidiary and affiliated banks in Southeastern Europe - ekathimerini- Credit institutions will have to submit their plans to comply by the end of June and then, following consultation, final plans will be agreed by mid-July. - Troika wants to see a drastic cut in the presence of domestic banks in countries in the Balkans. - Source

Syd 05:32 GMT May 24, 2013
Buckle up as dollar leaves safe haven
The Australian dollar faces further sharp losses in the next 12 months as it rediscovers its historic link to commodity prices, analysts say.

The dollar sank to a fresh 11-month-low of 95.94 yesterday. It was trading at 96.8 US cents this afternoon following a rollercoaster overnight session.

The revised forecasts from analysts come as HSBC flagged Australia�s entry into the global �currency war�, which has seen central banks print billions in cash to push their currencies lower.

Credit Suisse said its analysts had been �too timid� in their previous forecasts, given the structural fall in the dollar has happened more quickly than was expected.

HSBC said Australia entered the so-called currency war when the Reserve Bank eased the cash rate to a half-a-century low of 2.75 per cent earlier this month. Since the decision, the currency has fallen nearly by nearly 6 per cent.

�This change in tone signifies intent by the RBA to ensure a weaker [Australian dollar].�

Syd 05:23 GMT May 24, 2013
Australian dollar under pressure as Goldman encourages Aussie shorts
THE Australian dollar remains under pressure as banks slash forecasts and traders increasingly spruik shorting the currency.

After a host of investment banks yesterday lowered their predictions for the dollar, HSBC today cut its year-end forecast to US90 cents, from US95c as the �currency war� intensifies.

�The global currency war is escalating, the central banks are winning and the US dollar bull market is gaining momentum,� said HSBC.

It came as Goldman Sachs�s Hong Kong office said in a note overnight that its �top trade recommendation� was to be short the Australian dollar versus the Norwegian Krone. Last week, high profile Bell Potter stockbroker Charlie Aitken predicted that a wave of hedge funds were set to short the currency.

Goldman last week cut its cut its 12-month forecast for the Aussie to US90c, down from US98c, on bets that capital flows into the currency would slow. Yesterday, UBS and AMP Capital also lowered their forecasts, while Credit Suisse said the Aussie would fall to US92c in three months and US85c in 12 months.

�Clients have asked whether our Australian dollar-bearish views are consistent with our forecast for a sustained pick-up in global growth starting in the second half of the year,� the Goldman note said. �The answer to this question is 'yes'.

Goldman�s thesis is based on its bet stronger global growth will not generate higher commodity prices due to abundant supply and that the Australian economy will lag the global cycle due to the peak in mining investment and �insufficient momentum in the rest of the economy to pick up the slack�.

�Lastly, Australia�s carry credentials are likely to tarnish as other central banks hike rates and a more certain macro outlook diminishes the need for triple-A-rated assets,� the note said.


HK RF@ 05:11 GMT May 24, 2013
NIKKEI A-B-C and drop to 13400 we see.

Or Abe likes to put some more money to support.

GVI Forex Blog 04:51 GMT May 24, 2013 Reply   
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND APR TRADE BALANCE (NZ$): 157M V 515ME (3-month low); EXPORTS: 3.95B V 4.06BE; IMPORTS: 3.80B V 3.60BE - (PH) PHILIPPINES MAR TRADE BALANCE: -$593M V -$967M PRIOR; TOTAL IMPORTS: $4. Asian Market Update: Japan stocks rebound from overnight collapse as yen-sellers resurface - Source

HK RF@ 04:27 GMT May 24, 2013
Abernake fakes don't sell well, Nikkei fuss out yen stronger.

Europe will likely drop.

Syd 04:08 GMT May 24, 2013
M5.7 - 11km WNW of Greenville, California
Magnitude 5.7 quake strikes Northern California - U.S. Geological


GVI Forex Blog 03:38 GMT May 24, 2013 Reply   
Most of the global markets are around their short term supports. So we may see some bounce

Morning Briefing : 24-May-2013 -0337 GMT

Hong Kong AceTrader 01:41 GMT May 24, 2013
May 24 : Yen rallies after weak Chinese data and plunge in the Nikkei boost risk aversion
Market Review - 23/05/2013 22:58GMT

Yen rallies after weak Chinese data and plunge in the Nikkei boost risk aversion

The Japanese yen rallied after reaching a fresh 4-1/2 year low yesterday after weaker-than-expected Chinese data and selloff in Japanese stocks boosted risk aversion. The yen was also supported due to the jump in 10-year Japanese government bond yields, which rose to 1%, the highest in a year.

China HSBC flash manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.6 in May from 50.4 previously.

Despite a brief rebound to session high at 103.57 in early Asian morning, price began intra-day decline after data showed Chinese manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in 7 months. A selloff in Asian equities (Japan�s Nikkei 225 stock gauge tumbled by 7.3%) increased safe haven demand and price continued to ratchet lower, eventually falling to a low at 100.83. However, the greenback pared intra-day losses and rebounded in New York, helped by the release of better-than-expected U.S. jobless claims, pricre later edged higher to 102.06 near New York close.

U.S. weekly initial jobless claims came in at 340K, better than the expectation of 345K, prior reading was revised to 363K.

Although the single currency rebounded to 1.2856 in Asian morning, price met renewed selling there and retreated to session low at 1.2821 at European open. However, euro pared intra-day losses and rose to 1.2904 in European morning, helped by the release of better-than-expected Germany and EU manufacturing PMI. Despite a brief pullback to 1.2876, price resumed intra-day ascent and climbed to a high at 1.2957 in New York morning before stabilising.

German manufacturing PMI in May came in at 49.0, better than expectation of 48.5. Euro zone manufacturing PMI in May came in at 47.8, stronger than the forecast of 47.0.

The British pound also rebounded in Asian morning to 1.5053 before briefly retreating to 1.5022 at European open. Cable found renewed buying there and rose to 1.5094 in European morning after government report confirmed the U.K. economy returned to growth in the first quarter. Despite a brief pullback to 1.5054 in New York morning, price climbed to an intra-day high at 1.5129 in New York morning.

U.K GDP 2nd release in Q1 is reported 0.3% Q/Q n 0.6% y/y, same as expectation.

In other news, Japan EconMin Akira Amari said 'Japan's economy is on way to recovery, no need to be upset about sharp fall in stocks; closely watching market movements; natural for yen to gain in reaction to sharp falls in stocks' ECB's Nowothy said 'euro zone growth in 2013 could be worse than EU originally forecast; not time yet to unwind massive intervention by central banks to support economies.'

Data to be released on Friday:

New Zealand import, export, trade balance, Germany GDP, export, import, Gfk consumer confidence, Ifo business climate, current assessment, France business climate, Italy consumer confidence, UK mortgage approvals, U.S. durable goods, ex. transport and ex. defense.

Melbourne Qindex 01:18 GMT May 24, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : The market is positive when it is able to close above the barrier at 1.2900 // 1.2904 in the last New York session. Speculative buying interest will increase when the market is trading above 1.2996 // 1.2999. The daily cycle normal limits are positioning at 1.30016 - 1.31562 - 1.30645.

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

Syd 01:16 GMT May 24, 2013
Resources sector threatened by US shale gas: McKibbon
Former Reserve Bank of Australia board member and economist Warwick McKibbin believes Australia's resources sector will come under even greater pressure as shale gas in the United States continues to emerge as a new global energy source, The Australian Financial Review reports.

According to the newspaper, Mr McKibbin said successive governments had squandered the benefits of the mining boom by spending too much.

He added the expansion of shale gas was likely to reduce gas prices around the world from 2016.

"From Australia�s point of view this shock in the US reduces Australia�s terms of trade by about eight per cent over the next couple of years," professor McKibbin told the AFR.

"That�s a fairly big negative shock and will weigh quite heavily on the Australian dollar."

"That�s a fairly big negative shock and will weigh quite heavily on the Australian dollar."


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