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Forex Forum Archive for 05/25/2013

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dc CB 20:49 GMT May 25, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

US May Bonuses set this week...then New Money June 3 to start the next week, then Tues Jun4 the 21st UP Tues in a row.
With another $85bln month of POMO and MBS Buying by the FED....

dc CB 01:22 GMT May 23, 2013
United States: Reply
continuing with POMO After the 3 day Weekend

Tues $1.25 - $1.75 billion
Wed $2.75 - $3.50 billion
Thurs $1.25 - $1.75 billion
Fri to End the New Highs Month $4.25 - $5.25 billion

If Stox sell off in the face of this? Which would include the 20th in a Row Up Tuesday(if it does will)

Mtl JP 18:06 GMT May 25, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

I dont care for suggestions for Japan to try.

I care more about (hopefully profitable) trade ideas on the back of the so-called policy makers.

All I know is that:

1) no economy has ever gone down the drain because of a strong, sound currency

2) every time politicians and dishonest bankers dilluted their promisory paper notes one or two things have happened:
- a) working folk suffered bad economic hardship
- b) econimies collapsed
more immediately: last week players were served a lesson and (some) have become illuminated that CB-induced bubbles are subject to a two-directional moves both in stocks and bonds and that relying on CBs "to provide" may be becoming risky regardless if they become more flexible or tapering.

As players sell off JGBs they probably look for yield elsewhere. In part into places like Greece (and such similar others) whose 10-yr has gone sub 10%.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 17:41 GMT May 25, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

JP- sorry that was John. I wonder if you have another suggestion for Japan to try. Two decades of deflation gets to be a bit much!

Mtl JP 16:29 GMT May 25, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

Jay 15:32 - very unwelcome . Not looking good when money inflation races way ahead and from any economic growth and makes Abe and his nomics look foolish

ed kw 16:02 GMT May 25, 2013

Japan gold has no fear//but aud gold looks like fear

Mtl JP 15:41 GMT May 25, 2013
some retrospect headlines about Japan
3 largest economy and a 14 trio bond market

Japan Economy Chief Warns Against Panic Over Stock Sell-Off - May 23 bbrg
�There�s no need to be perturbed as the Japanese economy is recovering soundly,� Akira Amari told reporters in Tokyo today. �We will closely watch market movements.�

BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda promises to stabilise bond market - May 24 FT
..�Through dialogue with the market and more flexible operations, we will ensure the stability of financial and capital markets,� Mr Kuroda..

Kuroda Struggles With Communication as Japan Rates Rise: Economy - May 24 bbrg

Krugman: Japan's economy may provide salve for West
..."the combination of rising interest rates and rising stock prices suggests that both reflect an increase in optimism, not worries about Japanese solvency."...
Bottom Line: big biG BIG efforts are being made to not only support but now to try to head off bond and stock market crash.

Cambridge Joe 15:33 GMT May 25, 2013

A note of caution !

This is a BIG signal from the 4 hr. chart therefore there could easily be a 200 / 300 pip over-shoot..... you don't always turn a super-tanker on an tanner !

There may well prove to be some commonality with Dil's $250 north for gold post..... remains to be proved.


GVI Forex john Inner Circle 15:32 GMT May 25, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

JP- BOJ is most interested in JGB yields. They injected a lot of JPY into the system buying JGBs to drive rates down. I gather the spike in yields late last week was veryunwelcome.

Mtl JP 13:53 GMT May 25, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

john re "official interest rates would not be rising soon"

IF market misleading into mis-allocating and mis-pricing FED induced interest rates rise to a "normal" rate - i.e. 5% - bonds and stocks would re-price and correct by 40% or more.
To the downside.
Heat in JGB kitchen seems to be rising. I wonder what it will take to tits the Japanese economy

Mtl JP 12:51 GMT May 25, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

manila tom 06:34 - euro maybe building short, BUT note that the price has been fairly narrow approx 130 pip range.
suggests both out and inflows

Amman wfakhoury 12:31 GMT May 25, 2013
EURUSD failed to break 1.2990 the critical level to go up to
to 1.3160 .Unless it breaks 12990 and keep above it we will see 1.2830 again.

GVI Forex Inner Circle 12:08 GMT May 25, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

-- GVI Forex Trading Theme of the Week--

Fed Chairman Bernanke sent the markets mixed signals on Wednesday. One of the messages he sent was that Quantitative Ease in the form of Fed purchases of government debt COULD start to taper very soon. Markets paid no mind to the fact that the tapering would likely be very gradual and that official interest rates would not be rising soon. We feel that it was a fear of the "shock effect" on the markets of a policy change that had Bernanke trying to desensitize traders to this prospective policy change well before it hit. After all, bond yields are still at abnormally low levels and an adjustment back to more normal levels could happen abruptly and devastate stock prices and clobber the economy. The major fear at the Fed is that a sudden transition could weigh on the economy and arrest jobs growth.

The Week ahead sees Monday holidays in the U.S. and London that will constrain trading, and then a slew of data is scheduled over the week leading into month-end on Friday. Major items include German Retail Sales on Tuesday, a Bank of Canada policy decision Wednesday, U.S. Weekly Jobless data Thursday and early Friday the usual heavy end of month run of Japanese data. The U.S. sees a heavy Friday data calendar.

For additional key items and more detail (dates, times, data estimates), be sure to visit the Economic Calendar and the Forex Forum as key items are released.

-- John M. Bland,

GVI Forex 11:28 GMT May 25, 2013
Forex News
* Yen's rebound can extend further, but weaker trend intact

* Dollar drops 2 percent this week vs yen

* Euro posts 1st weekly gain in three vs dollar after German Ifo

FOREX NEWS - U.S. dollar marks worst week vs yen in a year

GVI Forex 11:20 GMT May 25, 2013
Week Ahead
� Asset markets: the start of a protracted turn lower or a pause for breathe?

� Bernanke ties prospects for tapering on near-term data

� Lloyds Business Barometer watched for further sign of improving UK confidence


Haifa ac 07:31 GMT May 25, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

Considring the fact that the Dollar index closed friday at the highest point in the last 3 years--if you believe in momentum-- the odds are better that the dollar is about to explode here -- which, mathematically means that the euro must implode.

manila tom 06:34 GMT May 25, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

now that FM has given green light to euro bottoming process and Qindex gave the upside target to play, euro is a buy from here.

another consideration is the COT chart which was clearly showing market is net short euro significantly, a recipe for a quick and sizeable run up

Melbourne Qindex 06:07 GMT May 25, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797

Entry: Target: Stop:

EUR/USD : Weekly Target 1.3182

During early period of next week the market is going to consolidate further within 1.2905 - 1.2961 - 1.3049. The market is positive when it is able to trade within 1.3008 - 1.3049*. The short term targeting range is 1.3118 - 1.3182.

EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts

jkt abel 04:33 GMT May 25, 2013
" Trade Ideas "

Entry: Target: Stop:

agree with FM, i think it is time to explore the upside for the rest of this month

Lahore FM 18:12 GMT May 24, 2013
short term bottom in place imo!

Syd 02:54 GMT May 25, 2013
Is Wall Street literally writing America's laws now?

bill called the Swaps Regulatory Improvement Act recently sailed through the House Financial Services Committee. But when The New York Times went through emails from a lobbyist to the congressmen who wrote it, the paper discovered an unofficial co-author: Citigroup.

It turns out that recommendations from Citigroup made up 70 of the bill's 85 lines, with two important paragraphs copied almost verbatim � save for two words that were changed to make them plural, according to the Times.

"It�s appalling, it�s disgusting, it�s wasteful and it opens the possibility of conflicts of interest and corruption," Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), a former Goldman Sachs banker and member of the House Financial Services Committee who backed the bill, told the Times. "It�s unfortunately the world we live in."

Dillon AL 02:24 GMT May 25, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

Weekly setup videos for the EUR/USD and GBP/USD (which also includes the DX)

See what is in store for the week ahead

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AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

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