Forex Forum Archive for 05/26/2013

Cambridge Joe 16:12 GMT May 26, 2013
Beyond the numbers
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.... time, after all, is central to all human experience. Yet Mr Smolin makes a compelling case that the mathematical models which have dominated physics since the days of Isaac Newton have replaced processes unfolding in time with “timeless laws”. Einstein dealt perhaps the biggest blow to what Mr Smolin calls “real” time by treating it both as a static dimension akin to length, width and depth, and as a concept in which the boundary separating the past from the future is different for different observers. He even consoled a friend’s widow by saying that “people like us, who believe in physics, know that the distinction between the past, present and future is only a stubbornly persistent illusion.”

For time to be “real”, in Mr Smolin’s sense, it cannot be relative. But nor can it be absolute in the Newtonian mould, where the future already exists, by dint of inexorable logic. This leads Mr Smolin to some audacious ideas. He challenges not only Einstein’s relativity, but also the very notion of natural laws as immutable truths. He also questions the usefulness of mathematics in modelling the universe in its entirety. Models shed light on processes which recur; the universe, by definition, happens just once.

Mr Smolin believes that a hypothesis does not need to be framed in equations to be scientific. All it has to do is to suggest observations by which it can be confirmed or refuted. He cites evolution by natural selection as a prime example, and one that physicists ought to emulate. Indeed, Mr Smolin’s own theories have grown a bit less mathematical over the years. Can such a switch lead to a deeper understanding of nature? As the author himself says: “Only time will tell.”

Linear and non-linear time at the same time ?

Yes !

http://www.economist.com/news/books-and-arts/21578366-fundamental-physics-has-made-important-advances-where-does-it-go-here-beyond

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 15:32 GMT May 26, 2013
Calendar
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May 26, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, May 27. Updated: Trading Events Calendar

HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: GB/US- Holidays

• Far East: No Major Data.
• Europe: GB- Holiday.
• North America: US- Holiday.


Direct links to primary data sources

Dillon AL 15:28 GMT May 26, 2013
Monday holiday in the U.S. and London

Fed meetings:
June 19*
July 31
Sept 18*
*Press conf
So to remain within the "we communicate" June or Sept ?

Mtl JP 14:28 GMT May 26, 2013
Monday holiday in the U.S. and London

... "At its most recent meeting, the Committee made clear that it is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its asset purchases to ensure that the stance of monetary policy remains appropriate as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes." ... (emph added) Bernanke, May 22, 2013

Mtl JP 13:12 GMT May 26, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

Livingston nh - hello stranger. Hope all is well.
-
AL - as a self-educated economist (not that there is anything wrong with that) Abe's fiscal and economic plan is based on an old Yamaguchi unbreakable three arrows in a bundle fable.

If the rise and volatility in JGB yields continue - did we hear one of the arrow shafts crack already ? - his experiment could find itself in early stages of failure and of being aborted.

It is difficult to time a collapse in currency, economy, banks, govt or all of those at once. As 3rd largest economy Japan collapse would not be without consequences around the world.

GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 11:19 GMT May 26, 2013
Monday holiday in the U.S. and London
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• HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: GB/US- Holidays
  
• The Week ahead sees Monday holidays in the U.S. and London that will constrain trading, and then a slew of data is scheduled over the week leading into month end on Friday
• Fed Chairman Bernanke sent the markets mixed signals on Wednesday. One of the messages he sent was that Quantitative Ease in the form of Fed purchases of government debt COULD start to taper very soon. Markets paid no mind to the fact that the tapering would likely be very gradual and that official interest rates would not be rising soon.
  
• We feel that it was a fear of the "shock effect" on the markets of a policy change that had Bernanke trying to desensitize traders to this prospective policy change  well before it  hit. After all, bond yields are still at abnormally low levels and an adjustment back to more normal levels could happen abruptly and devastate stock prices and clobber the economy. The major fear at the Fed is that a sudden transition could weigh on the economy and arrest jobs growth.
• Major calendar items include German Retail Sales on Tuesday, a Bank of Canada policy decision Wednesday, U.S. Weekly Jobless data Thursday and early Friday the usual heavy end of month run of Japanese data. The U.S. sees a heavy Friday data calendar.
  

GVI Forex Blog 11:18 GMT May 26, 2013 Reply   
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: GB/US- Holidays The Week ahead sees Monday holidays in the U.S. and London that will constrain trading, and then a slew of data is scheduled over the week leading into monthend on Friday Fed Chairman Bernanke sent the markets mixed signals on Wednesday. One of the messages he sent was that Quantitative Ease in the form of Fed purchases of government debt COULD start to taper very soon. Markets paid no mind to the fact that the tapering would likely be very gradual and that official interest rates would not be rising soon.

Monday holiday in the U.S. and London

Melbourne Qindex 08:09 GMT May 26, 2013
GBP/JPY : Critical Point 151.436
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GBPJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:




GBP/JPY : Critical Point 151.436


The market tackled the last weekly cycle normal lower limits at 151.692 - 152.744 - 153.851. It hit the high and the low at 156.55 and 151.797 respectively and it closed at 152.904. Speculative selling pressure will increase when GBP/JPY is below 150.038 and the downside targeting point is the current weekly cycle normal lower limit at 148.637.

GBP/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

Melbourne Qindex 06:48 GMT May 26, 2013
EUR/JPY : Critical Point 129.432
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EURJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:





EUR/JPY : Critical Point 129.432


Last week the market hit the high at 133.807 and the low at 129.945. It closed at 130.76. The weekly cycle pivot centres are located at 130.107 - 132.073 - 132.793. The bias is on the downside when the market retraces further and penetrates through the critical barrier at 129.432 // 129.456.


Qindex.com

EUR/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

ed kw 04:44 GMT May 26, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

looks like there balancing usd indx,does gold have to drop again

Melbourne Qindex 03:05 GMT May 26, 2013
USD/JPY : Critical Point 100.023
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USDJPY
Entry: Target: Stop:





USD/JPY : Weekly Cycle Analysis


Last week the market hit the low and high at 100.67 and 103.736 respectively and it closed in the New York session at 101.10. The weekly cycle normal lower limits were positioning at 98.332 - 100.458 - 101.11. It is interesting to see whether USD/JPY will retrace further next week. I would assume the market will tackle 98.332 when its downward trending momentum is strong enough to penetrate through 100.023* // 100.458. On the other hand the market is positive when it is trading above 102.348 // 102.684.


Qindex.com

USD/JPY : Monthly Cycle Charts

Dillon AL 02:37 GMT May 26, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

around 44% of JGBs are owned by the banks, 5% ma & pa, 5% foreign and 25% lifers and other insurers and the balance is owned in one way or another by MoF, BoJ, Kampo and other government owned pension funds. The banks' investment represent the available free float and the government is committed to allowing the round trip
so alls well even if yields double and if they do then the lifers and other insurers will step in to cover all their 2% guaranteed products . As to the government sponsored investors in reality they can cancel the debt any time they want and voila 25% of the problem disappears but this is likely purely in a last resort and that aint about to happen unless the UsdJpy tops 235 (yep not a typo but probably a level that is beyond most peoples vision)

Dillon AL 02:17 GMT May 26, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

welcome back nh

Livingston nh 01:57 GMT May 26, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

Just for further clarification -- in a fiat based monetary system gov't bonds are just currency with a coupon - as long as the CB buys, rates dont rise inflation does- fiat weakens

Livingston nh 01:44 GMT May 26, 2013
Forex Trading Theme for the Week

JP- the yen will weaken - the potential problem is the outstanding JGB not the future JGB - holders of existing JGBs (i.e. banks) are at risk unless BoJ buys all willing to sell so fiscally it becomes a wash // consumption in a savers based society is a problem - opposite of US problem - but Nikkei should flourish regardless of interest rates (my thesis has always been raise rate in a a saver based economy)