GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 23:38 GMT May 30, 2013
Japan
JA CPI... deflation persists except in Tokyo area data.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 23:18 GMT May 30, 2013
Japan
Japan PMI. At a recent high. Surpasses U.S. data.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 22:55 GMT May 30, 2013
Japan
Reply
HEADS-UP: Japanese Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update)
EURUSD= 1.3050
GBPUSD= 1.5235
USDJPY= 100.95
AUDUSD= 0.9680
USDCAD= 1.0297
Direct links to primary data sources
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 22:17 GMT May 30, 2013
Calendar
Reply
May 30, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, May 31.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JA- CPI, PMI, DE- Retail Sales, EZ- HICP, CA- GDP, University of Michigan
- Far East: JP- PMI, CPI, Unemployment, Industrial Output.
- Europe: CH- KoF Indicator, DE- Retail Sales. EZ- HICP (CPI). EZ- Unemployment.
- North America: CA- GDP. US- Presonal Income, PCE deflator, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan, COT Report.
Direct links to primary data sources
dc CB 22:09 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
Moar Good News to rub in your face:
____________________________________
The American markets are getting worried again. But this time the fear is refreshingly different.
The worry is that economic growth may be about to accelerate.
After five years of a disappointing economy, such a concern sounds too good to be true, and perhaps it is. But imagine what will happen if it is not. We�ve been complaining for years about how slow the recovery is. It would be great if it sped up appreciably
.
Then this week the Standard & Poor�s Case-Shiller home price index was reported to have leapt 10.9 percent over the year through March. That was the largest gain since 2006, when the housing bubble was in full expansion. And on the same day that was reported, the Conference Board said consumer confidence was at a five-year high
Don�t Be Alarmed, It�s Just the Economy About to Accelerate
Sydney ACC 21:20 GMT May 30, 2013
Globalization: The gift that keeps on giving
An electric iron previously made in Australia might last ten years or more, even with a family of four it would get used a maximum of two hours a week.
In the last two years we've gone through four electric irons distributed under an iconic Australian name but made in China. No big deal the iron costing about AUD 80 is under a two year warranty. You see each time I take it back to the store I get a new iron with a new receipt with a new warranty.
AS Malcolm Fraser said (an Australian prime minister) there's no such thing as a free lunch.
Mtl JP 21:17 GMT May 30, 2013
Globalization: The gift that keeps on giving
Japanese authorities have canceled a tender offer to buy wheat from the U.S., after unapproved genetically modified wheat was found in an Oregon field, Reuters reported on Thursday. Other major wheat importers South Korea, China and the Philippines also said they were monitoring the situation, after the find stirred concerns that the modified wheat could have made it to the marketplace, the report said. On Wednesday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said it had conducted a genetic test on the wheat and found that it was an experimental type produced by Monsanto Co. /quotes/zigman/267799/quotes/nls/mon MON -0.43% that hadn't been approved for sale. The European Commission has since said it has asked EU member states on Thursday to check imports of U.S. soft white wheat.
Sydney ACC 21:13 GMT May 30, 2013
Time to foster green shoots as mining starts to roll downhill Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/busi
Reply
One hopes the Reserve Bank was listening. The upside of the mining boom is behind us - and what a rise it was, with mining investment accounting for roughly half the economy's growth since 2010. Even if the descent is gradual, as the Reserve hopes, mining investment from here on will mostly be detracting from Australia's growth rate, not dominating it.
Garnaut is right: we need to bring down interest rates to bring down the dollar, so firms in other trade-exposed industries have the incentive to invest and expand to pick up the slack mining will leave.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/time-to-foster-green-shoots-as-mining-starts-to-roll-downhill-20130530-2nf2m.html#ixzz2UoS3C5Uz
dc CB 20:56 GMT May 30, 2013
Globalization: The gift that keeps on giving
Reply
Remember Toxic dry wall from China?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
In Germany, solar power was a political priority. They don�t have much sun, but they have more sun than oil, the logic went. Now even Bosch Solar Energy AG is fleeing the business after burning through $3.1 billion. Same story in France, in Spain. Bloodletting everywhere. They all blamed the low prices of Chinese solar panels. Complaints that led to anti-dumping proceedings in the US and aggravated the trade war between the EU and China
But solar power generators, from utilities with large-scale installations to farmers with solar panels on their barns, were ecstatic about the low prices. They enjoyed subsidies, nearly free financing, and the hope that the system would more than pay for itself over the course of its 25-year life span. It would be a good deal.
But it might not be. The price war that Chinese manufacturers waged was a suicide mission. Now even they�re going bankrupt, including their erstwhile number one, Wuxi Suntech, when the banks pulled the ripcord in March. Existentially threatened, they cut costs ... and corners.
Defective solar panels can be costly. The New York Times described what happened to the PV installation on a warehouse roof in Southern California whose promise of a 25-year life span disintegrated along with the protective coatings on the panels after only two years, and part of it went up in smoke when defects caused two fires.
Next Shoe To Drop: Shoddy Solar Panels From China
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 20:27 GMT May 30, 2013
Month-End. Busy U.S. and Japanese Calendars
Reply
- HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS: JA- CPI, PMI, DE- Retail Sales, EZ- HICP, CA- GDP,
University of Michigan
- Friday sees the usual
month-end run of Japanese data.
German Retail Sales are due also. The U.S. has a heavy calendar.
- U.S. Weekly Jobless. Claims
broke no new ground as they came in close to recent levels. Pending
Homes Sales signaled another flat Existing Homes report for April. 1Q13
GDP was only minimally revised.
- Swiss 1Q13 GDP advanced +0.60%
in the quarter vs. expectations for a gain of +0.20%. 4Q12 GDP was
revised up modestly as well. We do not see the data impacting the SNB
EURCHF peg.
- A top UK Pimco official says he
expects incoming BOE Governor Carney to engineer a 15% devaluation of
the GBP to stimulate economic growth. We have our doubts about this.
- Japanese markets saw another
volatile session Thursday with the Nikkei falling sharply after U.S.
weakness Wednesday.
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.2961
|
JGB
0.88% +6bp
|
Asia
Close Lower
|
USDJPY
101.31
|
Bund
1.51% -1bp
|
Europe
Mostly Up
|
EURJPY
131.31
|
U.S.
2.12% -1bp
|
U.S.
Higher
|
GVI Forex Blog 20:26 GMT May 30, 2013
Reply
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: JA- CPI, PMI, DE- Retail Sales, EZ- HICP, CA- GDP, University of Michigan
Friday sees the usual month-end run of Japanese data. German Retail Sales are due also. The U.S. has a heavy calendar.
U.S. Weekly Jobless. Claims broke no new ground as they came in close to recent levels. Pending Homes Sales signaled another flat Existing Homes report for April. 1Q13 GDP was only minimally revised.
Month-End. Busy U.S. and Japanese Calendars
GVI Forex Blog 20:25 GMT May 30, 2013
Reply
Event risk today: NZ has terms of trade and monthly business confidence � both potential market movers. Australia has private sector credit. Europe has CPI inflation and unemployment. In the US, the PCE deflator will be watched since it is one of the Fed�s preferred measures of core inflation.
Forex - Westpac Morning Report
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 19:49 GMT May 30, 2013
Chart Points
UPDATED. Global-View Free FX Database. High-Low-Close
data for over a dozen currency pairs for well over a decade of data in Excel spreadsheet format.
GVI Forex 19:35 GMT May 30, 2013
Japan
Reply
Firms to be required to settle trade, even when rate movement favors trader; fine for violation up to 100m yen
FSA to restrict trading in binary options, will ban trades less than two hrs ahead as early as this yr
FSA to strengthen oversight of cos. with automated trading systems
london red 19:09 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
when you look through tinted glass you dont see everything as clearly as you might
one can debate whether the rise is driven by one thing or another but the recent rise hasnt yet got near to retracing the falls since 2008, while average US house prices since 2000 are up not much more than cpi. household debt has increased about 20% to 117%. this is roughly around uk levels in 2000, but there house prices have roughly doubled since then while household debt has soared to over 150%.
dc CB 17:48 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
FWIW
In all of the "discussion" that I heard yesterday on NPR and PBS (the intellectual news sources for the USA) about the surge in housing prices, there was not a single mention of large numbers houses being snapped-up wholesale by large investment firms (with access to 0% money) as one of the causes for the rise in price. The implication of all the stories - by this omission -was that actual real people/families were coming back into the market and bidding up prices on houses.
ZH presents Zillow's side of the story.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
* Per Zillow...>44% of US Homeowners are Zombified; Over 60% when including income/credit restrictions
* As a result, the nations' "Maximum Potential Demand" profile has been gutted; evident in mediocre Existing & New Home Sales volume
* With structurally weak organic "Maximum Potential Demand"; First-Time buyer demand at 4-year lows; Distressed Resales at 6-year lows; New-Era "Investor" demand falling sharply on every dollar house prices rise; and rates rising where will demand come from to carry this sector going forward?
Time To Sell Foreclosed Homes Hits Record
dc CB 17:30 GMT May 30, 2013
Fixed Income
Direct demands soared with 20.68% of the takedown going to Direct bidders, the second highest ever in this series, and lower only to December's 23.11%. Indirects were no slouch either, with a final allotment of 40.84%, leaving just 38.48% for Dealers, the lowest take down for 2013.
So with very strong primary market demand along the belly, it is safe to say all rumors of a blow up in the US bond market are greatly exaggerated, and at least for now, any fears of a great "vortexing" can be put to rest. Remember: TSYs still continue to be the primary source of repoable collateral and for the time being at least, everyone still wants them.
Treasury Closes Issuance Week With Strong 7 Year Auction; Direct Takedown Second Highest Ever
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 17:20 GMT May 30, 2013
Fixed Income
EARLIER:
7-yr 1.496%
bid to cover 2.70 vs. 2.71
strong auction
SaR KaL 16:06 GMT May 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
I am adding Joe
More on USDJPY...LOL
Wish me luck bro
Cambridge Joe 15:56 GMT May 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
'1 hour is like not a target..' LOL !
No but 'up' is a direction and an hour is a point in time !
:-))
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 15:51 GMT May 30, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply
Prices in prime fixed income prices have turned mixed late in Europe. Prices remain weaker in periphery. U.S.7-yr auction at 17:00 GMT.
SaR KaL 15:47 GMT May 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
Joe
1 hour is like not a target..I am Sorry my friend
I am buying around these levels for > 0.99 tgt
in 1- 2 weeks
GBPJPY 160
EURJPY 135
EURUSD 1.26
USDJPY 106
Cambridge Joe 15:42 GMT May 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
KaL how do you see usdchf ?
I have it for north before the end of play,, maybe starts around and hour from here ?
Comment pls. TIA.
SaR KaL 15:23 GMT May 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
CADCHF is another good rallie for a month or So
till above .98 area
buying and adding this week and next
SaR KaL 15:15 GMT May 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
CADJPY in my Books is turning well
no on the way for a year north
on dips for the rest of week
should gain 103 easy in 2 weeks
GVI Forex Blog 15:12 GMT May 30, 2013
Reply
May 30, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, May 31. Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JA- CPI, PMI, DE- Retail Sales, EZ- HICP, CA- GDP, University of Michigan
GVI Forex Data Outlook for 31 May 2013
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 15:11 GMT May 30, 2013
Calendar
Reply
May 30, 2013 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Friday, May 31.
Updated: Trading Events Calendar
HIGH IMPACT RELEASES: JA- CPI, PMI, DE- Retail Sales, EZ- HICP, CA- GDP, University of Michigan
- Far East: JP- PMI, CPI, Unemployment, Industrial Output.
- Europe: CH- KoF Indicator, DE- Retail Sales. EZ- HICP (CPI). EZ- Unemployment.
- North America: CA- GDP. US- Presonal Income, PCE deflator, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan, COT Report.
Direct links to primary data sources
SaR KaL 15:06 GMT May 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
2 weeks of bullishnes coming up
enter now
eurusd Cable AUDUSD NZDUSD shorts
gbpnzd gbpchf USDJPY and USDCHF and USDCAD...Longs and adding
wait 2 weeks and you will see
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 15:01 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
-- ALERT --
Crude Oil: +3.000 vs. -0.500 exp vs. -0.340 prev.
Gasoline: -1.500 vs. -0.500 exp vs. -3.000 prev.
Distillates: +1.850 vs. 0 exp vs. -1.050 prev.
Cap/Util: 86.4% vs. n/a exp. vs. 87.9% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 14:30 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
US Natural Gas
-- ALERT --
Natural Gas (bcf)
+88 vs. +90 exp vs. +89 prev.
singapore td 14:20 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
ginko, sell usd and buy everything else
tokyo ginko 14:12 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
should get out now while you can
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 14:08 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
CHART: Latest Existing/Pending Homes Sales Data. Most important housing data series. What do I know, but its looking like it has flattened to me?
Mtl JP 14:05 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
"The housing market continues to squeak out gains from already very positive conditions" squealled the ever enthusiastic Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 14:01 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
Softer gain in home sales than expected.
Mtl JP 13:59 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
pending house sales up next at top of hour
need to miss estimate by +/- 500K to see maybe 40-50 pip reaction
Cambridge Joe 13:58 GMT May 30, 2013
Cable
Reply
Cable: A rapid re-visit to 5188 would trigger a sell about 15 minutes later. Cable sells into Asia anyway.... IMO. GL
GVI Forex Inner Circle 13:49 GMT May 30, 2013
Inner Circle
We posted this on the Inner circle - this last blast up was stop driven
Now we are again at a crossroads with 1.30 clearly the obstacle and only above the HOD would see some stops. One reason for caution on the sell side is there are huge stops at 1.3025-40.
jkt abel 13:44 GMT May 30, 2013
sell usd
Reply
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
additional long 1.3027, stop for this under 1.2980
jkt abel 13:41 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
agree with you singapore td, i think euro has made mid term bottom
no more 1.28 imho
singapore td 13:36 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
why? should be mean and greedy with trailing stop when you are correct
tokyo ginko 13:34 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
should take your profit and dont be greedy...
singapore td 13:32 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
sorry ginko, quite the opposite, usd is done
euro, after spending few weeks coiling above 1.2850, now above 1.30 means 1.33 next
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 13:26 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
JP- thats in line with what I would have expected estimates would be.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:55 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
JP- Haven't seen one yet, but based on data over the past month, I would guess estimates will be just shy of +200K. That is MY guess and I am not professionally certified to practice the dismal science!
Mtl JP 12:48 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
what is the current June 7th NFP forecast ?
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:45 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
U.S. advance 1Q13 GDP revised downward modestly.
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:41 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
U.S. Weekly jobless claims around the key 350K line. Note: five states data were estimated.
Click on chart for ten-year history
Mtl JP 12:35 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
that is a rise in jobless claims isnt it
tokyo ginko 12:34 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
usd frenzy day, especially usd/cad to test 1.0470
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 12:16 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
Reply
HEADS-UP: Key U.S. Data Due shortly.
Details at top of the page
(Manually refresh forum to update)
EURUSD= 1.2945
GBPUSD= 1.5125
USDJPY= 101.70
AUDUSD= 0.9594
USDCAD= 1.0380
Direct links to primary data sources
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:59 GMT May 30, 2013
Inner Circle
Reply
You have seen me talk about the Inner Circle and my Common Sense Approach (CSA).
See the post below for a CSA trade setup that worked out very nicely with a very low risk (tight stop) and an updated chart to show how it played out using my tipping point lines.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:21 GMT May 30, 2013 - My Profile
Thursday's Market: Reply
Current level: EURUSD 1.2983
1,2972 seems to be a pivotal support as a break would confirm a DOWN CSA off the high while 1,2961 break is needed to violate the UP CSA.
This assumes the upside is currently out of steam. Above 1.2988 would violate the DOWN CSA setup. Use it as a stop if playing for the DOWN CSA.
SaR KaL 11:42 GMT May 30, 2013
KaL's Trend and Level
sometimes it takes 2 days for your day trade to work...hehee
Mtl JP 11:31 GMT May 30, 2013
JPY
PAR suggest to ignore debt to GDP headline pablum.
What matters more is govt tax revenue vs bond interest payouts. Their tax revenue is at risk of being entirely consumed by interest payable. It is so exciting that it is buching up Kuroda's panties: �As far as the markets for long-term government securities are concerned, in which the Bank of Japan is directly involved through its market operations, it is extremely desirable for them to move stably,�.. .. .. �We are going to conduct our market operations in a flexible manner to head off, as much as possible, volatility in long-term interest rates, which were rising temporarily recently"
to dk 11:28 GMT May 30, 2013
Israel Dil
you have some tech issue with your script
when tabs open they stay black
check the attachment
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:15 GMT May 30, 2013
Israel Dil
Thanks Red.
And while we have the forums attention, you have seen some of our promos lately for the partner broker we have setup and the trading expertise we are including with it.
We suggest giving it a try or contacting me for more details EMAIL
It is really worth your time to explore this opportunity
london red 11:09 GMT May 30, 2013
Israel Dil
Jay, never forgotten how bad it got pre forum for me and thanks to the contributions managed to learn to fish rather than look for handouts. so many thanks to you and the other founders for creating the opportunity for others to discuss and formulate.
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:09 GMT May 30, 2013
Israel Dil
ACC, you give the forum too much credit. I am in touch with many who have left and in most cases it was for personal or professional reasons having nothing to do with what goes on here. Trust me on this. I wish we had that much power.
For a public forum with members from over 160 countries, we operate pretty smoothly and this is why the rare food fight gets magnified.
Like any community, it evolves as members come and go and the more who participate, the better off we all are.
PAR 11:07 GMT May 30, 2013
JPY
If Japanese pension funds start to sell japanese bonds to buy stocks what is going to happen to Japanese 250% debt to GDP .
Imho not such a great idea . Lol.
london red 11:05 GMT May 30, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797
euro - 200 day ma - 13030 - strong resistance but could give way even if temporary.
daily trendline - 13075 - even if poor data knocks dollar, think breaking this one will be a bridge too far for today. good area to sell but may not be reached today.
support 12930, 12900 12880. buying dips and fading rallies has been working for a while, change when pattern changes.
yen - whisker away from 50% fibo 10035. since good bounce so any return risks going down to 100. topside should be limited to handful of pips above 200 hour. above 10260/80 looking at return to months high - consensus slowly moving towards looking for lower nearterm.
Amsterdam Purk 11:04 GMT May 30, 2013
Israel Dil
Ah yes, UK JB, nice poster!
uk GG 11:04 GMT May 30, 2013
Israel Dil
totally agree...after many years watching here and saying next to nothing...
I used to say nothing because compared to the brilliant posters I was nothing and knew nothing...now I say nothing because it just doesnt seem worth it..
So the question is where did "they" all go?
Joe, I am just "south of the border" to you, could you shoot me an email via Profile?
GVI Forex Jay Meisler 11:02 GMT May 30, 2013
Israel Dil
Red, thanks for your contributions.
We encourage all to post as you never know when something will spark an idea or turn out to be a piece in your trading puzzle.
Cambridge Joe 10:44 GMT May 30, 2013
Israel Dil
red I very much agree with your comments.
Where are the Greats ?
UK-JB among others.
Perhaps too busy managing $ Billions to spend time and energy with us. It is our loss.
Still, we do the best we can !
Melbourne Qindex 10:40 GMT May 30, 2013
EUR/USD : Critical Point 1.2797
Buy EURUSD
Entry: Target: Stop:
EUR/USD : The normal daily cycle upper limits are located at 1.3003 - 1.3047 - 1.3054. I am expecting the market will tackle these ranges in the New York session. The odds are in favour of maintaining a long position when EUR/USD is able to overcome the resistant point at 1.3073.
Qindex.com
EUR/USD : Monthly Cycle Charts
london red 10:09 GMT May 30, 2013
Israel Dil
have been in and out of this forum over the past 15 years and true have seen a lot of the experience migrate elsewhere. from my point of view, all those years ago, contributions by those using the forum helped me formulate a way of thinking which has given me the tools to trade successfully as a non insider. this has not always meant following ideas or theories that were posted, often the exact opposite in fact, so its possible to learn from bad traders and their points of view just as well as good ones.
Cambridge Joe 09:53 GMT May 30, 2013
Cable
Reply
Cable HOD all but in. IMO. GL
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 09:29 GMT May 30, 2013
Busy U.S. Calendar. Another volatile session in Tokyo
Reply
- HIGH
IMPACT ITEMS: CA- Current Account, US- Weekly Jobs, GDP, Pending
Homes. 7-yr auction
- Thursday sees U.S. Weekly
Jobless. This is a key report with the focus of the Fed now mainly on
employment.
- Swiss 1Q13 GDP advanced +0.60%
in the quarter vs. expectations for a gain of +0.20%. 4Q12 GDP was
revised up modestly as well. We do not see the data impacting SNB
policy on the EURCHF cross.
- Pimco says it expects incoming
BOE Governor Carney to engineer a 15% devaluation of the GBP to
stimulate economic growth.
- Japanese markets saw another
volatile session today with the Nikkei falling sharply again after U.S.
weakness Wednesday.
- UPCOMING DATA: Friday will see
the usual end of month run of Japanese data and
German Retail Sales. The U.S. also has a heavy calendar.
20d
avg
|
10-yr
|
Equities
|
EURUSD
1.2962
|
JGB
0.88% +6bp
|
Asia
Close Lower
|
USDJPY
101.17
|
Bund
1.51% -1bp
|
Europe
Lower
|
EURJPY
131.13
|
U.S.
2.13% +1bp
|
U.S.Lower
|
GVI Forex Blog 09:27 GMT May 30, 2013
Reply
HIGH IMPACT ITEMS: CA- Current Account, US- Weekly Jobs, GDP, Pending Homes. 7-yr auction
Thursday sees U.S. Weekly Jobless. This is a key report with the focus of the Fed now mainly on employment.
Swiss 1Q13 GDP advanced +0.60% in the quarter vs. expectations for a gain of +0.20%. 4Q12 GDP was revised up modestly as well. We do not see the data impacting SNB policy on the EURCHF cross.
Busy U.S. Calendar. Another volatile session in Tokyo
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:50 GMT May 30, 2013
Switzerland
Reply
-- Earlier Data --
Swiss GDP 1Q13
qq: +0.60% vs. +0.20% exp. vs. +0.20% (r, +0.30%) prev.
yy: +1.10% vs. +1.00% exp. vs. +1.40% prev.
TTN: Live News Special Offer
GVI Forex john -- Inner Circle 08:44 GMT May 30, 2013
Fixed Income
Reply
Prices in prime fixed income prices mixed to higher early in Europe. Japanese JGB instability perists. Prices weaker in periphery. U.S.7-yr auction at 17:00 GMT.
Paris ib 08:30 GMT May 30, 2013
USD/JPY
RF you got that right.
The whole idea that the Japanese were going to export domestic savings was illogical. But that's what the propaganda machine has been putting out, even while the U.S. Treasury market tanks BIG TIME. Meanwhile the data does not support those ideas and what happens to the data? Well it gets reported in fine print very briefly. I had h.ell of a time finding the information on the massive Japanese capital REPATRIATION which was reported last night. Talk about media black out of inconvenient data. Last time there was a piddling amount of Japanese buying of foreign bonds (after two months of massive selling) and it was all over the press in huge headlines. This month's data..... hardly reported at all. Unbelievable. But draw your own conclusions. I guess they may wheel out Soros again in the hope of resparking the avalanche of margin USD/JPY buying. You can't play that game forever. And when margins start getting called it's game over.
JERUSALEM KB 08:25 GMT May 30, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels
Buy Gold
Entry: 1415 Target: 1430 Stop: 1411
buy stop and if this order triggers all stop loss for other 2 trades should be 1411 too
JERUSALEM KB 08:16 GMT May 30, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels
Buy Gold
Entry: 1393 Target: 1430 Stop: 1398
JERUSALEM KB 06:59 GMT May 30, 2013 - My Profile
Trading the sup & ress. levels: Reply
Buy Gold
Entry: 1393 Target: 1430 Stop: 1398
Trading the sup & ress. levels: Reply
Buy Gold
Entry: 1403 Target: Stop: 1398
buy stop
====
closed 1/2 with 150pips+
====
correction that was for this call
JERUSALEM KB 19:52:23 GMT - 05/29/2013
Buy Gold
Entry: 1393 Target: 1430 Stop: 1385
buy gold
Amsterdam Purk 08:14 GMT May 30, 2013
Israel Dil
AC, could not agree more, good post.
Sydney ACC 08:12 GMT May 30, 2013
Israel Dil
A contributors wisdom should be used to assess your own decision to execute a trade. Check what they have contributed against your own judgment to stop you from trading not to justify the initiation of a trade.
Over the years many good contributors have left because of the spiteful and vindictive postings of lesser mortals.
dc CB 07:59 GMT May 30, 2013
Back in the pool - the deep end
Reply
LONDON � Investors facing record low bond yields are increasingly chasing higher returns via complex derivatives, the instruments at the root of the 2008 global financial crisis, which can punch yawning holes in balance sheets if they go awry.
"The low interest rate environment is pushing clients to search for yield," said S�bastien Gyger, head of portfolio management for private clients at Lombard Odier.
"Volume in structured products has been high and has picked up, notably since the beginning of the year."
They are typically deals struck directly by a bank and an investor "over the counter" (OTC), not via an exchange, and their bespoke nature and complex terms mean they are much harder to offload than a stock, bond or unit in an exchange traded fund (ETF) if they start making losses.
They also expose their owners to the risk of default by the bank that creates them, unlike shares and bonds.
The notional value of the global OTC market has been roughly steady throughout the crisis and stood at $633 trillion at the end of 2012, according to data from the Bank for International Settlements, a sum with more than enough potential to destabilize the global financial system
Risky Derivatives Make Return for Returns' Sake
Amsterdam Purk 07:45 GMT May 30, 2013
Israel Dil
Gandalf? LOL.
Martin at the time traded different time frames and stuff. And people have to realize that there is a stop loss.
What i meant was that he was kind enough to share valuable information. Think they are also in the archive.
Gandalf, i like that name.
HK RF@ 07:38 GMT May 30, 2013
USD/JPY
Reply
Seems from the chart(and everyone may see it) that 98.75 has maybe more than 50% to reach.
Just too obvious, seems that all are in.
Middle-Earth Gandalf 07:37 GMT May 30, 2013
Israel Dil
Purk - I have lost a lot of money in those years because of Martin. I remember well how long he called the tops in AUD and NZD ... and they just moved higher and higher - relentless. for weeks and months.
Martin - is definitely not on my medal list.
But I remember well GEP and his GBP trades.
But I stick with it - Dil get's the gold medal - for extremely timely calls. And because he belongs to the rare group for almost never being wrong.
And he gets the silver medal for his overall performance. As far as I'm aware of it.
Disclaimer: I'm not a subscriber to his service as I'm just too small of a fish. But after over 13 years in the market I know pretty well to decide who is of value and who is not.
Dil definitely belongs to the group of greatest value.
Paris ib 07:34 GMT May 30, 2013
Capital Flow Data Japan
Reply
Does anyone have a link or the information regarding the capital inflow / outflow data which was released in Japan overnight? TIA.
Amsterdam Purk 07:27 GMT May 30, 2013
Israel Dil
Percy. the days when a guy like Martin from the gold coast posted here where great ones. As always, people love you when trades work out, and they throw mud at you when a trade went the wrong way.
Learned a great deal from him.
There are many clowns in this forum, and i keep on warn the good ones from taking any advice from them.
Beware of the mud.
As for Dil, well he is Dil.
dc CB 07:22 GMT May 30, 2013
Israel Dil
Noody Girl...yen qweeeeen lol
UK Percy 07:17 GMT May 30, 2013
Israel Dil
AC.
If you were around over 4 years ago you would have seen that this forum was graced by some of the best traders in the world. Traders that could move the market with a single trade or word. They were kind enough to donate their time , but over the years they have slowly disappeared as traders on the forum became more concerned with happens on the 5 minute chart and as a consequence have failed to learn from those valuable contributors.
The difference between making real money in this business and just struggling , is following correct advice that now no longer exists on this forum.
Chicago AC 07:09 GMT May 30, 2013
Israel Dil
Reply
I know only one guy who is smarter regarding investing than Israel Dil.
Beyond him - there's nobody like Israel Dil.
Check the archives - and check the results.
Mind blowing. Whether you like it or not.
Small Ego with no need for 1000 posts.
Big heart - comes out extremely timely before major trading opportunities - and shares his views. These are true gifts.
His latest calls: sell everything - buy gold.
From that other person I mentioned in the beginning of this post - both DOW and Gold have just had major reversals. And major really means major.
So I know that Israel Dils calls are of extreme value - and again they were spot on. Time wise and price wise.
My big salute and cheers go to Israel Dil!
Great soul, great mind, great investor!
You are well advised to listen when he posts something.
JERUSALEM KB 06:59 GMT May 30, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels
Buy Gold
Entry: 1393 Target: 1430 Stop: 1398
Trading the sup & ress. levels: Reply
Buy Gold
Entry: 1403 Target: Stop: 1398
buy stop
====
closed 1/2 with 150pips+
Tokyo Ginko 06:48 GMT May 30, 2013
sell usd
Looking at 1.22, once 1.2780 test and break
Haifa ac 06:43 GMT May 30, 2013
sell usd
On the monthly chart the dollar still has some bullishness to it. If the MONTHLY CHART is the significant time frame right now-- then the EURO should COLLAPSE
dc CB 06:28 GMT May 30, 2013
Money Laundering
Mexico is in the grip of a murderous drug war that has killed over 150,000 people since 2006. It is one of the most violent countries on earth. This drug war is a product of the transnational drug trade which is worth up to $400 billion a year and accounts for about 8% of all international trade.
The American government maintains that there is no alternative but to vigorously prosecute their zero tolerance policy of arresting drug users and their dealers. This has led to the incarceration of over 500,000 Americans. Meanwhile the flood of illegal drugs into America continues unabated.
One thing the American government has not done is to prosecute the largest banks in the world for supporting the drug cartels by washing billions of dollars of their blood stained money. As Narco sphere journalist Bill Conroy has observed banks are �where the money is� in the global drug war.
HSBC, Western Union, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase&Co, Citigroup, Wachovia amongst many others have allegedly failed to comply with American anti-money laundering (AML) laws.
The Mexican drug cartels have caught the headlines again and again due to their murderous activities. The war between the different drug cartels and the war between the cartels and government security forces has spilled the blood of tens of thousands of innocent people. The drug cartels would find it much harder to profit from their murderous activity if they didn�t have too big to fail banks willing to wash their dirty money.
In March 2010 Wachovia cut a deal with the US government which involved the bank being given fines of $160 million under a �deferred prosecution� agreement. This was due to Wachovia�s heavy involvement in money laundering moving up to $378.4 billion over several years. Not one banker was prosecuted for illegal involvement in the drugs trade. Meanwhile small time drug dealers and users go to prison.
Outrageous HSBC Settlement Proves the Drug War is a Joke Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blogs/taibblog/outrageous-hsbc-settlement-proves-the-drug-war-is-a-joke
dc CB 06:16 GMT May 30, 2013
Money Laundering
Reply
The new catchword for not wanting Governments to know where you spend your money.
OR the path to All Digital Transactions....Aka...We Know All.
The new Main Stream Media Theme...
If you're not doing anything WRONG, why do you care if WE ARE LOOKING?
Let's start with Child Pornography...everbody HATES That.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
"Eight years ago, Ernie Allen, the head of the International Center for Missing and Exploited Children, called the heads of major banks and credit card companies. Why, he wanted to know, were they letting child pornographers move illicit profits through their systems?"
Anonymous Payment Schemes Thriving on Web
dc CB 05:52 GMT May 30, 2013
Pork...But Wait????WTF???
If you dined on tilapia recently, chances are it came from China. And that artificial vanilla you just used to make cookies? It, too, may have made the same long journey to your kitchen in the United States.
A growing amount of food commonly consumed by Americans � ranging from canned tuna and mandarin oranges to fresh mushrooms and apple juice � is now being imported from China. By the end of last year, the United States imported 4.1 billion pounds of food products from China, according to the Agriculture Department.
�We should definitely give the Chinese an award for creativity in adulterating foods,� said Jeff Nelken, a food safety expert. �They are a great resource for counterfeited foods, like honey products that don�t seem to have any pollen in them.�
China�s Food Play Extends Its Reach, Already Mighty
jkt abel 05:20 GMT May 30, 2013
sell usd
Reply
usd weakness across the board, euro has bottomed out imho
Porto Cubriclas 04:40 GMT May 30, 2013
USDJPY 100.60
Cairo at least Amman wrotes...and i dont see any problem with that.
Syd 04:15 GMT May 30, 2013
NO MORE PROBLEMS IN EUROPE ??
Reply
In an odd turn of events, firefighters were the ones starting the fires at the latest austerity protest in Spain.
Spanish firefighters clashed with riot police in Barcelona Wednesday as they protested against spending cuts in Catalonia, the economically powerful northeastern region of the country.
Spain, Video, Austerity Protests, Firefighters Riot Police Austerity Spain, Firefighters Riot Police Barcelona, Firefighters Riot Police Spain, Spain Austerity Protests, World News
Cairo Muj A. Hadeen 04:11 GMT May 30, 2013
USDJPY 100.60
El Fakhead....please post more ...I can use the comedy and humour.
Amman wfakhoury 04:07 GMT May 30, 2013
USDJPY 100.60
Reply
Amman wfakhoury 16:20 GMT May 29, 2013
hyderabad krishna 15:53 GMT May 29, 2013 - My Profile
-----------------
100.60 is the critical level..which should be reached keeping
above it means 102.50 will be reached , keeps below it means 98.50 will be reached.
------------
100.60 reached as I said ..and now we are heading twd 102.50 if keeps above 100.60
HK RF@ 02:34 GMT May 30, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels
ed kw 02:22 GMT
Thank you for transferring to the FX forum.
You may stay and disturb here on the FX side, don't come back to the gold forum..
ed kw 02:17 GMT May 30, 2013
Trading the sup & ress. levels
HK RF@ 01:56 GMT May 30, 2013
ed kw 01:51 GMT: Reply
ed kw
You have to limit your posting on this forum.
You contribute nothing.
In fact you are a serious disturbance here.
We are not interested in your mental disease.
Try to see a doctor.
Hong Kong AceTrader 02:04 GMT May 30, 2013
Dollar tumbles on broad long liquidation : May 30, 2013
Reply
Market Review - 29/05/2013 23:17GMT
Dollar tumbles on broad long liquidation
The greenback tumbled against majority of its peers on Wednesday as U.S. Treasury yields fell from their recent highs, prompting investors to liquidate their recent long dollar positions.
Earlier in Asia, despite a brief rebound to 1.2864 in Asian morning, the single currency dropped to session low at 1.2838 ahead of European open. However, price found good buying interest there and rallied in European morning on dollar's broad-based weakness, euro climbed further to an intra-day high at 1.2977 ahead of New York open as a decline in U.S. bond yields prompted investors to sell the buck. Later, price pared intra-day gains and retreated to 1.2919 in New York afternoon before trading narrowly.
Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback dropped from 102.53 to 102.02 in Asian morning, price recovered to 102.48 ahead of European open. However, price fell sharply to 101.53 in European morning on active cross-buying of yen before tumbling further to an intra-day low at 100.71 on dollar's weakness. Later, price pared intra-day losses and recovered to 101.18 in New York afternoon.
The British pound rebounded to 1.5038 in Asian morning before dropping in tandem with euro to session low at 1.5008 ahead of European open. Despite rebound to 1.5071 in European morning, cable fell briefly but sharply to 1.5025 after the release of much weaker-than-expected CBI distributive trades. However, dollar's broad-based weakness pushed the pair higher and cable rallied to an intra-day high at 1.5147 in New York morning before trading sideways.
U.K. CBI distributive trades in May came out at -11, worse than the expectation of 3.
In other news, BOJ senior official said 'many market participants asked BOJ to buy JGBs more often in smaller amount; many market participants said BOJ should avoid buying JGBs on JGB auction days; hope to announce JGB purchase schedule for June sometime late on Thursday.'
On the data front, German unemployment rate in May remains at 6.9%, same as the forecast. German CPI in May came in at 0.4% m/m n 1.5% y/y, vs the forecast of 0.2% n 1.3% respectively.
Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia building approvals, private capex, Swiss GDP, Italy PPI, EU economic sentiment, business climate, consumer confidence, Canada PPI, U.S. GDP annualised, PCE, jobless claims and pending home sales.
Brisbane Flip 01:08 GMT May 30, 2013
Growth hit by mining boom end
ACC with Barnaby Joyce possible Deputy PM in the bearish future there will be less of the laissez faire (market knows best) public handwringing and whistling past a graveyard that has seen the AUD become managed higher by ACBs and SWFs.
Sydney ACC 00:59 GMT May 30, 2013
Growth hit by mining boom end
I note many of the analysts who a fortnight or so ago were calling for AUD/USD to rally back over parity are revising their forecasts down but still within the range of 90 cents to USD 1.00.
The last mining boom ended in 1974. At that time the AUD was a managed currency. The high was USD 1.4875 on 9th September 1973 but by November 1976 it had declined to 1.0123 after the Fraser government devalued by 17.5%.
Given that the exchange rate is set by market rather than a group of bureaucrats the decline is likely to be more rapid. Whether it matches that what occurred in 2008n remains to be seen
I read a very interesting paper written by Ross Garnaut which doesn't paint such a rosy outlook for Australia. Self-interest is likely to win the day thus the changes required are unlikely to be introduced.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/05/garnaut-delivers-cold-drenching-to-elite/
Syd 00:44 GMT May 30, 2013
Growth hit by mining boom end
Reply
PUBLISHED: 10 hours 32 MINUTES AGO - UPDATE: 1 hour 3 MINUTES AGO
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Growth hit by mining boom end
Treasurer Wayne Swan bats away OECD suggestions that the government should broaden the GST or increase its 10 per cent rate, but maintains �the OECD has endorsed the Gillard government�s fiscal strategy�. Photo: Glenn Hunt
Jacob Greber Economics correspondent
The OECD has for the first time cast serious doubt about �Australia�s future after the resources boom, joining the growing fears among experts about how to manage the �economic �transition.
In an unusually blunt report, the �Paris-based group forecast �below-average growth this year and acknowledged the pending September election is creating uncertainty in the economy.
The report added to mounting �evidence global investors are reassessing Australia�s previous resilience.
The world�s biggest bond fund, PIMCO, on Wednesday said the Reserve Bank of Australia may need to cut official interest rates even lower as investment in resource projects slows and a weaker Chinese economy saps demand for iron ore, coal and other exports.
�The new normal has finally arrived down under,� said fund managers Adam Bowe and Robert Mead, �referring to a term coined by �California-based PIMCO to describe the post-crisis world of low growth and interest rates.
The dollar continued its three-week tumble after official figures raised more doubts about the struggling construction industry, which the Reserve Bank is counting on to offset slowing mining and gas investment.
Sudden China slowdown our biggest threat �The OECD has endorsed the Gillard government�s fiscal strategy,� he said. The body urged the government to �gradually balance� the budget to rebuild Australia�s capacity to respond to any future downturn. The biggest threat to Australia is a sudden economic slowdown in China, which could force the Reserve Bank to cut rates further. �The uncertainties weighing on the pace of fiscal consolidation should be clarified following the election scheduled for September 2013,� it said.
dc CB 00:35 GMT May 30, 2013
United States
POMO in pipeline
Thurs $1.25 - $1.75 billion
Fri, $4.25 - $5.25 billion
just gots to get thru the 7Y auction...
FEAR - CHEER = Yield
Friday's Close = Bonus Time
many more chart points
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